Navigating November: Insights on Year-End Planning and Market Moves

Curious about how US credit being put on negative watch by Moody's might impact your investment strategy? Get ready to sit on the edge of your seat as we dissect the implications of this, along with an in-depth analysis of rising interest rates and their effect on financial assets in this episode. Brace yourself as we take you on a rollercoaster ride through the economic data of the week, the US government shutdown and its potential fallout, introducing you to the new House Speaker. In addition, we're offering you valuable insights from James Clear, author of Atomic Habits, on how to stay on course with your financial goals amidst all this chaos. 

Let's ignite your intrigue further with a discussion on the benefits of the weight loss drug Wigovie and the phenomenal performance of the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Nervous about the market opening lower? We've got you covered. We will analyze S&P futures indicating a lower market opening, and decode Boeing's stock performance in the aftermath of new orders at the Dubai Air Show. You'll also hear about Senator Tim Scott's decision to end his presidential campaign and David Cameron's appointment as the UK Foreign Secretary. As we approach year-end, we'll help you navigate the green energy transition and the financial preparations necessary for a smooth transition. Buckle up and join us for this thrilling financial journey!

** For informational and educational purposes only, not intended as investment advice. Views and opinions are subject to change without notice.

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Transcript

Alan Eppers: 0:00

And now introducing Mr Keith Lanton.

Keith Lanton: 0:04

Good morning. Today is Monday, November 13th. I want to wish all that have served happy Veterans Day and thanks to them for their service. Veterans Day was Saturday 11-11.

Keith Lanton: 0:17

This morning we are almost halfway through the month of November and we certainly have a slew of year-end information to digest and to use that information to set us up for next year, to think about how we want to structure our portfolios, our investments, to reassess our investment thesis. Perhaps Perhaps there's been some life-changing events births, deaths, change of jobs, retirement, just getting another year older and perhaps a reassessment of the current situation, the current investment portfolio, especially as interest rates have increased dramatically since the start of the year. Perhaps some who have not reallocated their portfolios may want to think about that. And, of course, brad has talked many times already and still remains extremely relevant to think about year-end tax planning, especially about year-end tax loss swaps, especially in bonds, where you can sell one bond by another bond and pretty much keep yourself in a similar position and recognize the tax loss and the age-old fixed-income strategy that this year will take on increased relevance as we've seen a significant drop in prices of bonds as interest rates have increased and we've seen a relatively stable to strong equity market that has helped create some capital gains. So Brad's going to join us in a little while. Give us some insights into the fixed-income markets, which, once again, are the driving force, in my opinion, of most financial assets right now are the interest rates. And the insights into where interest rates are and maybe going and where the opportunities are is where a lot of the outperformance will be driven from. And this morning we wake up to first day of market trading on the news that the US credit was put on negative watch by Moody's and we'll talk a little bit more about that in the fixed-income markets.

Keith Lanton: 2:16

But before we do that, today, monday morning, we come into the office or we come into our chairs at our home office and we think about hey, what are we going to accomplish this week? Usually Monday morning, at the time when we come in full of energy and ideas from the weekend and we want to make adjustments to what took place in the last week and we want to get back on track and achieve our goals and achieve our mission and get ourselves to where we are striving to go. So some thoughts from James Clear, author of Atomic Habits, on how to perhaps do that, how to deal with a changing world, and one of his thesis is to focus on what is important For each headache you face. Ask yourself is this mostly real or mostly imagined? Solve the real problems, release the imaginary ones. Relax your renumeration, analysis, worry and need to control the future are robbing you of the current moment. Yes, there is a time for preparation, but continually thinking of the future guarantees that you will never enjoy the present. And in terms of getting into our Monday morning, jumping in, getting started, before you do that, take a breath and think before you dive in, because you got to think to yourself before you put this extra effort in, before you try harder, making sure that you are on the path that leads you where you want to go. After all, exerting more effort doesn't help if you're on the wrong trajectory. Working harder on the wrong thing just wastes more time. Learning more, for example, from a biased source, will not lead you to a conclusion that gets you where you want to go. In fact, it will get you further from the truth, even though you've dedicated lots of time trying to find the truth and thinking of change and those who have truly made great strides in adaptation, thinkers that have influenced our current world.

Keith Lanton: 4:16

Philosopher, eric Hopper, spoke on adaptability and he said in times of change, learners inherit the earth, while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists. So think recently, think Elon Musk and Tesla, and think of all the wonderful combustion engine engineers that are at board and General Motors and BMW. Those engineers, while still certainly brilliant people, their areas of expertise are becoming increasingly outdated as the world moves towards electric vehicles, where you could think about Bill Gates and coming up with the Microsoft operating system, which eventually became Windows, and how that invention created the personal computer. And think of the effects that that had on the previous juggernauts of computing, like IBM, like boroughs like Wellcom that are size IBM and no longer household names. Or Henry Ford when he invented the automobile. Think of all the folks out there who were making carriages and wagon wheels and buggy whips. Or Thomas Edison with the invention of electricity. And all the candle makers that were growing and thriving and had all sorts of wonderful knowledge on how to mass produce candles quickly found themselves in a world that was changing very rapidly.

Keith Lanton: 5:37

So, talking about a world changing rapidly, let's talk about the world of financial markets this morning and what's taking place. I mentioned that Moody's downgraded US credit outlook to negative. After the closing bell Friday, moody's affirmed US credit ratings of AAA but said fiscal policy and he has a shock for a political dysfunction in Washington or creating risks. Perhaps the fact that this is not such a shock is one of the reasons that we're not seeing a big reaction to this realignment by Moody's, following on the heels of a Fitch which had downgraded the outlook on the US a couple of months ago and you may remember the downgrade of the US, which did drive financial markets, meaning we lower all the way back in 2011 by S&P, which rates the US not AAA but AA+. This week, on top of the news about the US credit outlook being put on watch by Moody's, we are going to get lots of economic data with respect to inflation. That will also have a meaningful impact on the trajectory of credit and interest rates, and we'll talk about that in a few minutes.

Keith Lanton: 6:39

We also have the shutdown scramble going on. The shutdown supposed to be happening this weekend. We have a new House Speaker, but he is dealing with familiar problems. The US government is going to partially shut down on Saturday if Congress fails to pass a funding bill before then. As lawmakers run out of time, house Speaker Mike Johnson will try to convince far right members of his party who are pushing for spending cuts, to support a short term funding plan. House Republicans over the weekend released a novel spending proposal there to extend funding for parts of the government until January 19th and others until February 2nd, that's according to NBC News. Some sources are suggesting that the Democratic-led Senate will reject the approach and others are suggesting that senators in the Democratic-controlled Senate will embrace or consider embracing this strategy. Either way, if Congress fails to act, a shutdown could lead to widespread furloughs of federal workers and that could be a drag on the US economy.

Keith Lanton: 7:39

So this week we get a big week in retail Tuesday, home depot before the bell, releasing earnings. Wednesday, tj Maxx and Target before the bell. And Thursday, wal-mart and Macy's before the bell and Gap after the bell. These companies will also give us some updates on how they are faring at the start of the critical holiday quarter. At this point, more than 90% of S&P 5 companies have reported results for the third quarter and earnings have climbed so far 6.3% over the prior year. Revenue has grown at a slower pace of 1.4% year over year, and keep in mind. If you factor in inflation, that would actually be declining sales.

Keith Lanton: 8:17

In the news in the weight loss drugs, novo Nordisk and their drug, wigovie, saying that the benefits of their drug could go beyond weight loss. Weekly injections of the drug reduced the risk of heart attack, stroke and death from cardiovascular diseases by 20%. The trial results were published Saturday and studied the effects of Wigovie on about 17,000 people who had obesity and heart disease, but not diabetes. This trial and study could unlock wider insurance coverage for Wigovie and need to even more people using it. And over the weekend Disney released Marvell Cinematic Universe, which was, by most the count, a disappointment for a movie in the Marvel series. Weakest domestic box opening ever for a Marvel series 47 million in the US, 63 million overseas, a total of 110 million. The haul is a great one for most releases, but stands out in a franchise that has produced some of the highest grossing movies ever. Disney is looking for the right approach for the Marvel Universe after many fans felt overwhelmed by trying to keep up with a flurry of franchises released in theaters and on the streaming service of Disney Plus.

Keith Lanton: 9:28

So, on the heels of all this news, s&p futures right now are down about 8 points. Nasdaq futures down 37,. Dow futures down about 40 points. Stock markets indicating a lower, open after the market. Relatively positive performance last week. Notable strength in Boeing following a slew of new orders at the Dubai Air Show and Bloomberg reporting that China may soon announce the purchase of the 737 MAX offering support for Boeing. This morning. Two year note relatively unchanged this morning around 505,. 10 years up 1 to 2 basis points around 465,. Other companies in the news HP symbol, hpq upgraded to buy from neutral at the city bank.

Keith Lanton: 10:14

Overseas markets Asian market had a mixed week. To mix the data begin the week we saw the hang sing up over 1%. Shanghai up 3 tenths of 1% and some weakness in Australia and South Korea. Most European industries are trading with a moderately positive bias. To begin the week In the general news category we had Senator Tim Scott announcing the end of his campaign for the presidency. David Cameron, former UK Prime Minister, pointed out as the UK Foreign Secretary, as the previous Foreign Secretary was pushed out after some comment regarding use of police force with respect to some demonstration regarding the Israel and Palestinian conflict in Great Britain.

Keith Lanton: 11:02

Wall Street Journal reporting what many perhaps already know, that the transition to green energy looks more expensive than complicated than previously thought. We talked last week about oil and oil prices and how important they are for not only inflation but for the overall world economy. How fewer and fewer folks are going into geology and into the study of how to extract the oil and gas, and that's leading to a shortage of experts, on top of the fact that there's been an underinvestment in finding oil and gas, and that this is coming at a critical juncture when the supply of green energy is not happening as rapidly as expected or is costing a lot more than expected in order to get it delivered. This bill that the Republicans are bringing forward to save up a shutdown. Cnn is reporting that the funding bill does not include additional aid for Israel or the Ukraine, new York Times reporting that the US conducted airstrikes against Iran-supported targets in Syria.

Keith Lanton: 12:03

So, looking forward to what's going on this week, tomorrow perhaps the biggest economic news of the week when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releasing the Consumer Price Index for October, economists forecast a 3.3% year-over-year increase, following a 3.7% rise in September. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is expected to gain 4.1%, unchanged from September. And we mentioned retail earnings taking center stage as Wall Street debates whether the US consumer can continue to defy skeptics and power the economy after GDP grew at a seasonally adjusted 4.9% rate in the third quarter. Home Depot results come out on Tuesday, targeting TJX we mentioned this before Wednesday Roth Stores and Walmart on Thursday. Then on Wednesday, the big meeting between President Biden and President Xi during the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit in San Francisco. The two leaders are bidding to stabilize the relationship between the world's two largest economies. Also on Wednesday, census Bureau reporting retail sales data for October estimates consumer spending to decline 4.1% more month over month. Excluding auto sales are expected to fall 2.1%. Both numbers would be meaningfully lower than in September.

Keith Lanton: 13:21

Moving on to Barron, barron had an interesting commentary article from a guest writer who was giving his opinion or her opinion, lori Goodman regarding the housing market, and I thought that she made some really prescient points to share with you this morning and she said owning a home has gotten pricey fast. A market adjustment is coming. Something to think about. If you own a home, you're thinking of buying a home, you're thinking of selling a home. What's happened in the housing space? Well, the gap between median rents and when a new homeowner would pay for a property at today's mortgage rate is the widest it's ever been, at least as far back as we have data. That fact, she says, will have large implications for the housing and mortgage market.

Keith Lanton: 14:04

Put this in perspective since the end of 2019, cpi Consumer Price Index up 19%. Meanwhile rents have gone up 31%, but home prices have increased 41%. And that doesn't factor in the fact that interest rates on homes have gone from mortgage rates of about 3% to nearly 8%. Put that in perspective. What that means is that if you're going to put down let's take a real small number like 5% that the mortgage payments on a mid-tier home have jumped from roughly $1,075 to $2,300. So you're looking at an increase of your mortgage payments of 115%. When you factor everything in, put that up against the 31% increase in rent and you can see that the cost of home ownership has gone up dramatically.

Keith Lanton: 14:51

When you look at the overall market, you look at the fundamentals you know that the supply has been very curtailed and that's one of the reasons why the prices have gone up on homes, despite the fact that there is less demand because interest rates have increased. So less supply demand has been relatively weak, but the high relative to supply causing prices to move up. Why is supply been weak? Well, about 60% of homeowners have a mortgage rate of less than 4%. 80% of homeowners have a rate of less than 5%. Therefore, if you're a current homeowner, either renting or buying a new home would represent a large cost increase, so your best bet is to stay put. This creates a large what she calls lock-in effect, limiting homeowners mobility.

Keith Lanton: 15:37

As rates rose in 2022, in the first half of 2023, the decrease in the supply of homes on the market was offset by a decrease in demand, as fewer renters could qualify for a mortgage. But now mortgage rates have risen from the high sixes to the mid-sevenths. So what does that mean? That means that even fewer can qualify for a mortgage. So what this means is that demand is decreasing, despite the fact that supply is staying relatively steady. Again, this is all relative to where we were two or three months ago. So if you look at where we were two or three months ago, you had this certain level of demand and a certain level of supply, which caused prices to increase. So here we are now. Supply is not really changing much anymore. It's already been weak, but demand is getting weaker because the cost to buy the home and to take out the mortgage has gone up even further and this, therefore, may lead to a moderation or a decrease in home prices in the near term.

Keith Lanton: 16:34

What's another knock-on effect of all of this, if you think about it, is that, with more homeowners staying put, the calculus becomes hey, we should make this home the home that perhaps we wanted to buy if we were going to upgrade. We can't do that upgrade because we've locked in our 30-year mortgage and it's a five, six hundred thousand dollar mortgage and we're paying three percent. So we'd like to have a bigger family room, we'd like to have a redone kitchen. So this therefore translates into the fact that perhaps we will see renovations remain strong or relatively steady, despite the fact that we may be suffering from potential economic change and conditions in the future. Nevertheless, it is possible that the renovation market will see a continued steady pace or an uptick, as more people continue to stay in their homes and upgrade those homes. So, barron markets, what's going on? We talked about downgrading US credit debt. We talked about the importance of the current level of interest rates and how that is driving the equity markets. Well, barron's agrees.

Keith Lanton: 17:39

They wrote an article in the trader column entitled it's a Treasury Bond World. The stock market just lives in it. So here we are in the middle of earnings season, but what's driving the markets more than these earnings? Well, it's the Treasury market doing more to move the stock market than any company. Fundamentals Stocks have had a wild ride in recent months, but it's nothing compared with what has happened in bonds.

Keith Lanton: 18:02

Bond yields were 3.95% at the end of June and then by mid-October the 10-year had surged to 5%, the level not seen in 16 years. Then what happened is buyers swooped in perhaps 5% a nice round number that got the folks excited after all and the yield since November 3rd, which was currently at the time of 5% 10-year Treasury yield, has fallen as low as 452 this morning, back to about a 465, and the stock market has moved along for the ride with the Treasury rate. So the S&P 500 fall 10% from the end of July through late October, and since late October yields have fallen. We've seen markets claw back and gone up about 7.5% since those lows, and just the past week we saw the bond markets influence on stocks on display once again.

Keith Lanton: 18:52

On Thursday there was a $24 billion auction of 30-year Treasury bonds and it showed some cracks in demand. Primary dealers were forced to accept 25% of the offering, more than double the average over the past year. The auction had what's called a large tail. What does that mean? It means that the Treasury needed to entice buyers with a premium yield over where the 30 years were trading in the open market. So the S&P, which had been rallying all week, on Thursday, when that auction didn't go as well as expected, saw a decline of about a tenth of 1% in the S&P 500. And perhaps this concern about auctions not being as successful as hoped for is a preview of what's to come.

Keith Lanton: 19:33

Federal government ran a deficit of $1.7 trillion in fiscal 2023. Keep in mind you factor out the student loan adjustment, it was close to the $2 trillion that's the total deficit ending in September of 2023. That $1.7 trillion let's take that number is more than the entire debt load of the US in 1985. Heavy borrowing means lots of Treasury issuance, just as the two biggest buyers of the past decade are largely out of the market. We've talked about this before. The Fed went from quantitative easing to quantitative tightening. Not only are they no longer buyers, they're letting their Treasuries roll off their balance sheet. And the other big buyer, china, has other issues.

Keith Lanton: 20:16

So it turns out despite the fact that those who were suggesting that we could do what was known as modern portfolio theory turns out that perhaps they didn't have it right after all, and we can't just issue Treasuries and assume that there is a limitless demand for them the influence on the fiscal side of the equation will only get stronger. Us federal deficit will be in focus this coming week, with Congress facing a Friday deadline to avoid a government shutdown. Even the most Pollyannaish among us doesn't expect Congress, with a new Speaker of the House, to suddenly rediscover fiscal probidity and balance the budget by the end of this week. A resolution is the most likely outcome. As we mentioned Just this morning, we got some trial balloons floated, but nevertheless, if this uncertainty continues and this run-up in the size of the deficit goes unaddressed, it is possible that we could revisit that 5% level where we saw lots of buyers enter the market previously.

Keith Lanton: 21:15

Of course, the other big factor here is the monetary policy, so that's the fiscal policy. What the Congress is doing in the monetary policy is what the Fed is doing in terms of sending the Fed funds rate. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, after the Fed meeting, sort of gave, let's say, some indications that perhaps the Fed was close to being done raising interest rates. Well then, on Thursday, he came out and indicated that interest rate increases weren't off the table, and this contributed to some of the weakness that we saw in markets on Thursday. Still, the market did end up last week and we did see the net stack up about 2%, the Dow up about 1% and the S&P also up about 1.3%. All that happening while the 10-year Treasury yield, which moved around a lot during the week, basically settled at the same level it started the week.

Keith Lanton: 22:08

What are we looking for in terms of key leads, in terms of the market's appetite to digest Treasuries, which is something that is not something we were thinking about six months ago Well, the next long bond auction is scheduled for November 20th and the market's angst over the scale of the Treasury borrowing as a third variable to the Fed's calculations. Before the Fed was worried about inflation, the Fed was worried about employment, and now the Fed is worried how Treasury auctions go and what the level of interest is at these auctions. So interesting the way things change quickly, what it is that we are focused on when it comes to looking at the financial markets and what will drive the markets in the future. So, speaking of what's going to drive the market in the future, well, one thing that we know for sure is that we do have a presidential election coming up in just under one year, and we have a lot of comparisons educating us, saying that presidential elections are bad for stocks, and that has nothing to do with whether you are thinking of a President Trump or a President Biden in the future. Just history.

Keith Lanton: 23:12

According to Goldman Sachs data, the S&P 500 has returned 7% over the 12 months before a presidential election. We're sitting there now, compared with 9% for other years. And since 1984, those results have even been worse just 4%. That occurred in 2000, 2008 and 2020, versus 11% for non-presidential election years. Good news is, once elections are over, the S&P does average a 1.28% monthly gain after the election is over. What do we attribute this to? What explains the fact that we have poor results prior to election and then, somewhat of a bounce, chalk it up to uncertainty? Goldman Sachs economist Kostin notes that the S&P 500's P-E ratio typically declined by about 2% during the year before a presidential election. And, for those of you who are thinking about bonds, the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen a median of 39 basis points in the year of a presidential election. The end result is a widening risk premium. In other words, investors are demanding more yield over government debt to hold stocks. Kostin says their right to do so realized. Volatility is higher during election years and talking about who will be the next president and what the polls have to say about that, it's interesting to note that Deutsche Bank came out with a study saying that the predictive value of polls is near zero until 300 days ahead of an election. So if that's correct, you can start paying attention to the polls in about two months.

Keith Lanton: 24:44

One stock that Barron's mentioned and I'll turn it over to Brad. Barron's talking about a bank stock. This stock is a Citigroup symbol C, and Barron's acknowledging that Citigroup is in the dog house and suggesting that there is a possibility or a potential, after many, many years in the dog house, that Citigroup could break out. Betting on a turnaround takes patience, as anyone who owns Citigroup's stock well knows. Citigroup is the country's third largest bank and it has been a laggard for years, lumbering behind rivals like JP Morgan and Bank of America in price, profitability and other measures of success. Quick fix is not coming, but with Citigroup's stock near 15 year lows, trading in half its tangible book value. Baron saying it's not a bad place to park some cash, earn 5% and bet on better days.

Keith Lanton: 25:35

Ceo Jean Frazier started in March of 2021 and she seems determined to accelerate cost cuts and win over investors. With a more streamlined bank, city could be laying up 10% of its 240,000 person workforce, according to a CNBC report, and downsizing could ship away its city's bloated cost structure, a big drag on its profitability. Interesting statistic is that City derives 56,000 in profit per employee, compared with 165,000 in JP Morgan and 143,000 in Bank of America. It's two biggest rivals. City has pledged other steps to lift the tailing stock, which is down 40% since Frazier started. Investors want to see more profitability.

Keith Lanton: 26:20

City's return on tangible equity is about 7.7%, all behind peers like Bank of America and Wells Fargo, which have returns of close to 11%. Investors certainly have reasons to be skeptical. We've heard lots about turnarounds taking place in City over the last 15 years and all of them have roughly pretty much fallen flat on their face. In the last 15 years, jp Morgan's stock has quadrupled, bank of America has doubled and City Bank's stock has gone nowhere, but some analysts are becoming cautiously optimistic. Edgar Wachenheim, chairman of Asset Manager Greenhaven Associates points out that the profitable cash management vision at City accounts for 35% to 40% of earnings power. Picking up that business in a well-capitalized bank trading for half of its tangible value is a rare opportunity, he said, and he thinks that City's stock could reach $100, stocks around 42 over the next few years.

Keith Lanton: 27:18

The quote in this article is an Oppenheimer analyst who sees the stock trading up the tangible book value, which would be about $80 a share. He says the value style investing is out of favor. But boy, city Group is a deep value. City is so far behind rivals it may take years to catch up. But it's 5% dividend yield barons, as they believe, is well covered by cash flows. With that, turn it over to Brad. Give us some more insights into markets this morning.

Brad Harris: 27:46

Good morning, I hope the exception of New York football fans that everyone had a really nice weekend. As I said last week, the bond market is the tale. Not only is it wagging the dog that's the equity market, but the bond market's volatility now highlights almost every conversation regarding the fate of all market. We saw some real stabilization and a major rally in bonds the last couple of weeks and it seemed that maybe there was a possibility that we could settle into a comfortable trading range. But lo and behold, friday afternoon, after the markets closed, moody's put the US government's debt on negative credit watch. Additionally, once again at the end of the week we face a potential government shutdown. With all this, I'm just going to assume that we'll have continued extreme volatility in bonds. We all just need to get used to the fact that this may be the new normal.

Brad Harris: 28:39

For quite some time, the municipal in particular, the market has been inundated with tax loss selling. As I discussed last week, I would encourage those who would benefit by taking losses, by harvesting losses through tax loss swaps, to do it sooner than later, while the market still has a little bit of liquidity. Assuming the treasury market does not fall off a cliff, tax loss swaps many times improve the potential for good portfolio performance going forward, while creating losses to offset any current or future profits For new municipal money. I feel like counting on the table this, but I've learned over the last year don't pound the table on anything. But I'm hyper-focused on 3% bonds due in the 8 to 12 year range.

Brad Harris: 29:25

Even on an after-tax basis, taking the de minimis tax into account, these bonds are excellent value and being thrown away during the tax loss season, usually because somebody bought a 3% tenure bond at PAR. They will do anything to take the loss and they're happy to sell that bond away at 85% from a dollar About $100,000, they realize a loss of $15,000 and they reinvested for a similar type bond A lot of times at a similar type price. For those looking for more current income, 4% bonds at PAR are still available, going up slightly longer, and for those who are absolutely bearish on bonds, we can still buy 5% longer bonds with short calls at reasonable premiums. Those bonds don't seem to be available at PAR anymore. But to pay $101, $102, $103. If you want some protection, that's a good option. As municipal supply dwindles going to your end and if the treasury market stabilizes within a reasonable trading range, I would certainly be constructive on municipal heading into the new year and I think that you could have some good performance on that sector.

Alan Eppers: 30:42

Thank you for listening to Mr Keith Lanton. This podcast is available on most platforms, including Apple Podcasts, Spotify and Pandora. For more information, please visit our website at www. heroldlantern. com

Sophie Cohen: 31:00

Opinions expressed herein are subject to change and not necessarily the opinion of the firm. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The information presented herein is for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide personal investment advice. It is important that you consider your tolerance for risk and investment goals when making investment decisions. Trading and securities does involve risk and the potential of losing money. The material does not constitute research, investment advice or trade recommendations.