2023 Wrap-Up: Lessons Learned and Goals Set for 2024

Ever wondered how to align your financial dreams with the reality of your bank account? Let's unravel that mystery together as we bid adieu to 2023 and set our sights on a prosperous 2024. In our heartwarming year-end discussion, I take you through the crucial steps of revisiting your financial strategy and the transformative power of putting your goals to paper. Drawing on the wisdom of financial gurus like Dave Ramsey, we consider the importance of aligning money management with life's objectives. And, with a nod to the importance of family, we touch on how including loved ones in money conversations can be the cornerstone of building generational wealth. As a cherry on top, I'll give you a sneak peek at Barron's top stock picks for the new year—from tech behemoths to potential market dark horses.

As the markets close out the year with unexpected exuberance, I'll guide you through the potential market landscape for the year ahead. Barron's has an optimistic view, and we'll dissect their predictions amidst a backdrop of the Federal Reserve's monetary signals and a rally that's touched more than just the tech titans. Speaking of technology, we'll take a microscope to the heavy hitters in the AI space—Nvidia, AMD, and others—who are poised to redefine the industry. We'll also scrutinize Microsoft's AI integration into Office 365 and its implications for the market. So, curl up with your investment ledger as we explore the possibilities that 2024 holds, armed with expert forecasts and a dash of financial acumen.

** For informational and educational purposes only, not intended as investment advice. Views and opinions are subject to change without notice.

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Transcript

Alan Eppers: 0:00

And now introducing Mr Keith Lanton.

Keith Lanton: 0:05

Welcome, good morning. Today is Monday, December 18th, One week from Christmas. For everyone who celebrated Hanukkah had a happy Hanukkah. This is going to be our final call of 2023. Next week we will not be having a call, so we will resume in 2024.

Keith Lanton: 0:30

Keep in mind here, as we approach year end, we've talked many times, myself and Brad, about year end strategies. For the last moment stragglers still an opportunity to revisit some of those strategies, if appropriate, certainly if you need to make sure that you take your required minimum distributions for 2023, the retirement age has ticked up to 73 this year where you must start taking required minimum distributions. If you do not take your required minimum distribution, you are subject to penalties. So just painful days left here in 2023. So, since this is our last discussion of the year, I want to start by thinking forward to 2024. And each of us can start thinking about our goals for next year and beyond. Perhaps 2023 was a year where a new baby was born in the family, perhaps someone was married or changed a job, had their financial position changed, perhaps they received an inheritance, perhaps someone retired, or perhaps someone got divorced, there was a death in the family, or there was some other unforeseen financial event that had a significant effect. Well, these are those types of moments where it's important to really revisit your plan, but each year, whether you had a major change or not, as your life progresses, your goals and wishes and desires may change. So good time to reset the financial brain and make sure that the plan that you have in place is the plan that meets the goals and objectives that you're looking to achieve. So a couple of quotes this morning regarding planning and thinking and goals, dreams, wishes. A goal without a plan is just a wish. Having a plan with money doesn't just help you right now, it also gives you vision and hope for the end goal.

Keith Lanton: 2:33

Dave Ramsey said something magical happens when you write down your goals it changes the way you see your situation. John Rampton said don't let money run your life. Let money help you run your life better. Dave Ramsey also said you will either learn to manage money or the lack of it will manage you. And thinking about money and why it is that we seek to manage it and accumulate it is because it is a store of value and it helps us reach our dreams. The goal isn't more money. The goal is living life on your terms. Being rich is having money, being wealthy is having time, and that's one of the big themes with the with money is that having money at your disposal because you saved it or earned it, something that let you manage your time better, and sticking with that theme time is more valuable than money. You can get more money, but you cannot get more time. The best thing that money can buy Is time.

Keith Lanton: 3:35

And Colin Wright said, when thinking about your goals and dreams and your goals to two thousand and twenty four, think about this chase your passion, passions and money will come. Chase money and you may never find your passion. And David Perry said as we pursue financial success, keep this one in mind the problem is not a loss of money or credit, it's a loss of trust. I think Warren Buffett would also agree with that thought. So, as we think about what we want to do in terms of our financial plans and our goals for two thousand twenty four, they want to think about bringing in the entire family and having a broader discussion, depending on the age of the family and the complexity of the family. Bring everyone together and try and get everybody in the same plan will make it a lot easier to create multi generational wealth. So we're going to now take a look at what's going on In the short term for the rest of this year and then talk about barons and what they think is going to happen in two thousand and twenty four. Of course, this is all conjecture, which is why it's important for us to have the plans in place for our goals, because the financial markets, while over the long term the past tends to be a Less bumpy, over the short term it can be very bumpy. So start out talking about what's going on this morning and then we'll move on to the rest of the year. And parents actually gave their ten best stock ideas to two thousand twenty four and they've had a fairly good track record, so we'll discuss those as well.

Keith Lanton: 5:05

So this morning S&P futures are up about twelve points, about two tenths of a percent above fair value. Nasdaq futures the one hundred futures are up about twenty points, about one tenth above fair value in the Dow is up about seventy point two tenths above fair value. Stock futures indicate a higher opening following seven straight week of positive gains for the major indices, and one of the main reasons for that appreciation in stocks has been the treasuries have been very friendly to the stock market, interest rates moving down. And this morning treasury yields are once again slightly lower. To your note, yield is down four basis points to four forty two ten year down just about two basis points to three ninety one this morning.

Keith Lanton: 5:47

This morning, we had some commentary from Chicago president ghouls be, who is not a two thousand and twenty four FOMC voter, saying it's too early to declare victory against inflation. According to Bloomberg, several European central bank officials also have said they do not see a pivot In policy there before their March meeting, making a rate cut before June difficult. So Chicago president ghouls be out warning about the timing here in the US and the ECB warning. And then on Friday we had New York, that president who is always a voting member, williams, out suggesting that the Fed may not be a super aggressive and cutting rates as early as the markets were expecting. And at least at the moment, that commentary last week on Friday with fellow and relatively deaf ears Quiet day. Today, in terms of economic data, we do have the December National Association of Home Builders housing market index out at ten typically not a supermarket moving number, expected to come in at thirty four. Overseas equity markets in the Asia Pacific region mostly lower, trading cautiously in front of the bank of Japan's policy decision on Tuesday, major European indices are mostly in modest down drift that begin the week on a relatively slow day. As well as that commentary I just mentioned about the ECB possibly not cutting rates as soon as markets expected, also in Europe, germany's business climate survey for December printed a weaker than expected result and a dip from November.

Keith Lanton: 7:09

In US news, new York Times is reporting that US officials will push Israel to scale back the war this week. Political reporting with senators deciding progress, but no imminent deal on border security and Ukraine funding. Some reports indicating that if they deal on immigration can be worked out. It would perhaps be the most sweeping immigration reform in this country since the late nineteen nineties. Bloomberg reporting that negative equity on auto loans is the highest in more than three years, as consumers have borrowed to purchase cars in the last couple years at the elevated prices, and now pricing on those cars is coming down as they depreciate use car prices not going up as much. So A lot of car buyers are seeing themselves with negative equity on their cars that they bought in the last few years, and the Hill is reporting that forty percent of student loan borrowers missed their first payment since student loan payment resumed. An individual company news Apple is taking lower on a report that more Chinese agencies and government backed firms have ordered staff to stop bringing their iPhones to work.

Keith Lanton: 8:09

This morning US Steel iconic US company symbol X has been in play as Cleveland Cliffs and some other companies have offered to buy US Steel for thirty five to forty dollars a share. But this morning US Steel getting a surprising offer from Nippon Steel in Japan offering to buy US Steel for fifty five dollars per share. Us Steel is up this morning about thirty percent, about eleven and a quarter points, perhaps speaking to the power of the US manufacturing resurgence here and the increasing in manufacturing going on in the United States. So that's quite a surprise from a traditional industrial company here in the US. Alumina symbol I L M N is up about eight points this morning, or six percent, announcing that it will divest itself from Grail. Grail is a company that tests blood for cancer and Alumina had previously owned Grail and then had divested themselves of it and then bought it back. And the regulators FTC here in the US as well as the European regulators were uncomfortable with with Alumina owning the company that does the testing as well as the diagnostic equipment. And now Alumina stopping their fight and saying they will divest in the market. It's kind of breathing a sigh of relief after Alumina sold off significantly, as this fight has played out. V F Corp symbol. V F C Another company suffering from an attack on their systems and saying that there was some unauthorized occurrences on some of their information technology in the stockdown eight percent. On that news, ibm is buying software AG enterprise integration platforms with two point three billion to bolster its artificial intelligence and its cloud offerings.

Keith Lanton: 9:53

What's going on this week? We just alluded to the Bank of Japan will on Tuesday, tomorrow, the Bank of Japan is going to announce its monetary policy decision. Central Bank is expected to keep its short-term interest rate at negative one-tenth of one percent. The Bank of Japan might tweak its yield curve control policy, which aims for a target yield of zero percent on 10-year Japanese bonds with a ceiling of one percent. That one percent ceiling had recently been increased from 50 basis points. Many strategists see this as a precursor to the Bank of Japan ending both negative interest rates and yield curve control policy sometime in the first half of 2024. If in fact they were to do that, that would be a monumental shift for the Bank of Japan and could have implication for market throughout the world. This is an important development to keep an eye on, so this Bank of Japan meeting is significant. The yen has rallied about six percent against the US dollar after hitting a multi-decade low in mid-November.

Keith Lanton: 10:49

I just talked about Grail and Illumina and the FTC Federal Trade Commission had resisted that takeover and there was just news breaking that Adobe and Figma have called off that $20 billion merger. Some had challenged Adobe taking over Figma, which also had some artificial intelligence components. Some had suggested that this is something that wouldn't be good for competition in the market and now they're calling off that merger as well. All right, resuming back to what's going on this week, accenture and FedEx are among the few large cab companies releasing earnings in a quiet earnings week. Accenture reports before the open tomorrow and FedEx after the close Memory chip maker Micron Technology symbol MU announces earnings on Wednesday and Sneaker Giant Nike on Thursday.

Keith Lanton: 11:34

Friday, right before the Christmas holiday, we get perhaps the biggest economic news of the week when the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, also known as the PCE, for November. This is what the Federal Reserve has previously indicated is one of their main metrics for measuring inflation. So consensus estimate for the PCE is for it to increase 2.8% year over year, 2.10% less than in October and if you're looking at core PCE, which excludes food and energy, that's expected to be 3.3% compared with 3.5 in October. The goal is 2%, as you may remember, for inflation, as stated by the Federal Reserve, but we're slowly getting there. If this in fact are the numbers that we see, the annual change in the core PCE is at its lowest level since April of 2021. This morning oil is up about $1.80 to $7,320. Bp reporting that they are the latest oil company to pause Red Sea shipments as with the attack continue, and Russia reporting that they're going to be cutting back some of their oil exports, putting some pressure on the upside to oil prices.

Keith Lanton: 12:46

Moving on to Barron's, and then we'll talk about the short term and long term for the market and we'll talk about the 10 favorite stocks and then we're going to turn things over to Brad to give us his thoughts on the economy and the markets. Certainly a lot to talk about in the bond market. So Barron's feeling pretty optimistic going forward with financial markets, albeit with some caveats that things may not play out as bullish as they anticipate, but nevertheless, the overall sentiment is they think the probability is for a good 2020. Before we get to a good 2024,. We've had a recent run of seven straight weeks up in the market and Barron's is suggesting that we certainly could be due for a pullback. The trader Colliman Barron entitled the bulls are back. Why they may not like the reasons why the Fed is easing. There isn't much more to wish for from the market this year.

Keith Lanton: 13:41

If the Federal Reserve delivered the prospect of monetary easing wrapped in a big, shiny bow, the hint of lucid monetary policy set the markets on a tear that was up 2.9% last week. Dow reached a record high, s&p was up 2.5%, in striking distance of a record high, and the NASDAQ was up 2.85%. Still has some work to do. Still about 10% or so off of its all time high Ten year Treasury note closed below 4% for the first time since July 31st. Even better, the rally has broadened out beyond the magnificent seven, which are collectively up 75% this year and have largely driven the S&P 500's gain. But this past week, lagging sectors like materials and real estate climb more than 4.5%. For the remaining two weeks of 2023,. The recent rally leaves investors with little to do, even less than dovish comments from New York. Fed President John Williams, as I mentioned on Friday, fell to slow the market's momentum, barring any shocks, baron saying the good tidings are likely to linger through year end.

Keith Lanton: 14:41

Markets interpreted the Federal Open Market Committee meeting as a green light to price in the perfect investment backdrop for 2024. Falling inflation and moderate economic growth, said the chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth. It's true that lower rates do help consumers and businesses alike, but it's also important to consider reasons why rates might be heading lower. After all, the Fed doesn't cut interest rates just to be generous to markets. They cut interest rates because they see weakness in the economy or rising financial risks. The chief economist over there at CIBC says he expects that to play out next year as the proverbial long and variable legs of monetary policy tightening are felt in the economy. One of the risks is this could lead to a credit tightening recession, something that seems likely, given that traders are pricing in as many as six rate cuts in the next year. That is something that the markets need to consider, that perhaps, if you're going to get six interest rates cut, that perhaps means that you won't have quite as smooth of a landing as you anticipate.

Keith Lanton: 15:47

On the same vein, in the latest instance last week, jerome Powell, the Fed Chairman, set off the buying frenzy with his comment that future interest rate cuts were a topic of discussion at the just concluded federal open market committee policy meeting. And what really gave markets a lot of enthusiasm was that, if you look back just 12 days earlier, that same Fed Chairman, jerome Powell, has said it was premature to speculate about the easing of Fed policy. So a very rapid about face, giving the market lots of conviction to be bullish and optimistic that we're going to see rate cuts. And what we did see is that the Federal Reserve at their meeting suggested that at the end of next year that we would see the Fed funds rate at 4.6% and that is down from the previous projection of 5.1% made just a few months ago in September. So that employee implies 3.25% reductions coming in the next year. But if you look at what the markets are saying, the markets already discounted those three moves and they already had priced in three more cuts next year and then after the Fed chairs press conference they actually priced in a seventh cut next year. So again, going back to that commentary earlier with respect to a hard landing, if you're going to get seven interest rate cuts which is what at least the market is pricing in at the moment then you may want to brace yourselves for something less than a smooth landing at the very least. But the bond market certainly is very appreciative of pricing in those cuts. 10-year Treasury note, which was at 5% in mid-October, tumbled through 4%, which was also one of the catalysts for the Dow Jones industrial average setting that record. Last week we talked about the fact that New York Fed President Williams tried to dial things back a little bit at the end of last week, and then this morning we've got Guls B, another FOMC member, also trying to temper some of this enthusiasm. But so far markets are following the Fed chair and not some of the Fed presidents.

Keith Lanton: 17:51

So Baron's cover story was entitled Stocks Beat the Odds this Year, 2023, and why they Can Do it Again in 2024. Long odds, 2023 has been a splendid year for the markets S&P 500 index has risen 23%, nasdaq up 41%, fueled by an extraordinarily strong economy, artificial intelligence, ambitions of big tech and, lately, the prospect of interest cuts in 2024. Even the bond market is picked up after a historic downturn, one that briefly sent yields too high, is not seen since the 2008-2009 financial crisis. These investors chilled a bubbly for the year-end celebrations. They should lay in for more positive, this article says for 2024.

Keith Lanton: 18:35

While the S&P 500 isn't cheap at 19 times next year's expected earnings, and the timing and pace of rate cuts are uncertain, stocks look poised for another strong year. With this year's narrow rally broadening out to encompass more issuers, there is good reason to think that 2024 could end strongly, as well as this year's end, lifting the stocks beyond Wall Street Pro's targets. Why does Barron say that that is a possibility? One is that earnings will return as a positive driver for stocks next year. Two, lower interest rates could Greece stocks pass higher, lowering the cost for businesses to do business and boosting liquidity.

Keith Lanton: 19:13

Speaking specifically about tech stocks, barron saying tech stocks are poised for another big year, and they say this is because of three predominant drivers. One is the Fed pivot, which we've talked significantly about already. Two is a commitment to cost cutting, which was the story of technology earlier in 2023. And, of course, artificial intelligence 2023 was the year generative AI went mainstream, a trend that revived investor interest in AI-relevant chip, software and infrastructure companies. They feel that these three factors will drive tech stocks higher in 2024.

Keith Lanton: 19:53

Commentator here in the article says barring a deeper session, I can't imagine tech stocks declining in an environment where the Fed is cutting rates. Also, expectation here from this article that the rally in tech stocks will broaden out, although Nvidia in this article remains a favorite, saying that it still looks inexpensive thanks to its astonishing earnings growth. Nevertheless, there are other compelling AI plays. Specifically, they mentioned AMD, qualcomm, broadcom and Micron technologies, which does report earnings this week. And they say the best bet in software is Microsoft, but they do say to beware. One key reason that the sector has taken off is Microsoft's co-pilot service for Office Suite 365. And early next year we'll start to see if Microsoft was able to meet the streets expectations for monetizing AI and that if it falls short, there could be some disappointment.

Keith Lanton: 20:49

So finally, before I turn it over to Brad, I'm going to talk about Barron's 10 favorite stocks for 2024. Every December for the past 14 years, barron has selected 10 stocks that they think are good bets to outperform over the next 12 months. The 2023 group topped the market, returning about 31% so far year to date, versus about 24% for the S&P 500. The 2022 group beat the index by about 10% and back in 2021, the group of 10 lagged the market slightly. So what are some of the 10 stocks here? I'll go through them briefly.

Keith Lanton: 21:26

Number one on the list is not a US company. It's Chinese company and it's Alibaba symbol, baba saying it's one of the cheapest tech-oriented companies in the world. It's down about 18% so far this year and after the fall, alibaba is trading for just eight times projected earnings. The stock is about $72 a share. It's back where it stood following its 2014 IPO, despite a 10-fold rise in revenue and a five-fold rise in earnings. They say the company is sitting on a mountain of cash equal to about a third of its $184 billion market value. Adding in its core Chinese e-commerce unit, it's cloud computing and logistics business and a stake in Ant Financial. The sum of the company's parts comes to about $130 per share, nearly double the current stock price. This isn't a risk-free thesis here. Alibaba recently delayed plans for an IPO of its cloud business in the US due to US chip export restrictions, and they face growing competitive pressures in China. But the thesis here is that the headwind from the Chinese government is big tech Crackdown, sluggish domestic economy, already reflected in the price. So, even if things don't go spectacularly well, even if they go okay, feel that there's a lot of upside to Alibaba.

Keith Lanton: 22:43

Second on the list is one of the Magnificent 7. It's the only Magnificent 7 on the list is Alphabet, or some people still refer to it as Google Deces. Here is the stock's trading around 20 times earnings. The difference is discount to both Microsoft and Apple 30 times. Some disappointment regarding the cloud growth, but Barron suggesting that it's 22% growth in the cloud, while perhaps not up to street expectations. They feel that the stock has been not fully reflecting its value here, with some disappointment priced in for their cloud business, but Barron thinks they will move past that. They even think that Google could, or Alphabet could, initiate a dividend in 2024.

Keith Lanton: 23:23

Next up on the list Barrick Gold symbol. Gold. Gold miners typically leverage plays on the metal, yet specifically, that's gold. Yet Barrick shares are up 3% this year while Gold's up 10. That's due to higher costs to extract the gold and lower than expected gold production. But Barrick has many good things going for it Some of the best mines in the world. It is the top producer in Nevada, dominican Republic and in Africa. It aims to boost its mine output, mostly gold and copper, by 30% by the end of the decade. Stock's trading around 16 times earnings, 2.3% dividend yield.

Keith Lanton: 24:02

Berkshire Hathaway on the list, albeit Charlie Munger passed away. Warren Buffett is impossible to replace, but he has positioned Berkshire to succeed. Without him and Barron saying the stock should do just fine in 2024. The case begins with the Fort Knox balance sheet at Berkshire 150 billion in cash, 20% of the market value of the company. Earnings are growing too. Berkshire's operating profits up about 20% so far in 2023. Stock looks reasonably priced at 1.4 times year end 2023 book value and 18 times projected forward earnings.

Keith Lanton: 24:38

Biotech company on the list BioNTech symbol BNTX. Covid vaccine maker. Like all COVID vaccine makers, biontech got crushed in 2023. But it has so much cash that it would appeal even to Warren Buffett's mentor, fame value investor, benjamin Graham. Typically in this market of this era, it's very hard to find value companies that would appeal to the metrics that Benjamin Graham used back in his time period. But BioNTech is one that actually may make the grade. The stock is now trading around 104, down from 447 in 221. But unlike so many cash burning Biotech, biontech is expected to remain profitable in 2023. And the company's oncology pipeline could prove more promising than investors believe. Also, biontech said it won't blow its cash on an expensive deal. And BioNTech has oodles of cash more than 18 billion. That is, three quarters of the current market value of the company. Investors are effectively paying about 7 billion for its COVID franchise and drug pipeline. Benjamin Graham would call that a margin of safety.

Keith Lanton: 25:45

Next up is Chevron. Simple CVX, the giant energy company, stocks around 150. It's down 16.5% in 2023, one of the worst performing of the major oil companies. Chevrons underperformance deserve. They had some issues in the Permian Basin and in Kazakhstan, looking to move past those in 2024. Barron saying it looks inexpensive trading around 10.7 times 2024 earnings. Yields 4.2% based on the company's plan to boost its dividend 8% next month.

Keith Lanton: 26:18

Next up is Hertz, the car company. Assemble HTV stock dropped from 18 when Barron's was speaking favorably about it several months ago. It's now trading around 10 stocks, around 8.6 times earnings. This is a result of some disappointment with Hertz's moving to electric vehicles and renting electric vehicles, the fact that electric vehicles have dropped in price, so their fleet of electric vehicles is less valuable. Nevertheless, barron, with the current valuation and the fact that this business is oligopoly with just a handful of players and pricing power. Feels that this valuation, hertz is very attractive.

Keith Lanton: 26:54

Another value story here is Maddox and Square Garden Sports. Msg Sports, as it's known, owns two of the most valuable professional teams in sports. We know them well here in New York the New York Knicks and the New York Rangers. Together those two teams have an estimated value of about 9.5 billion. But the current market value of MSG, including debt, is about 4.5 billion. That's about where the stock traded five years ago and Barron saying that's too cheap, even factory, in the Dolan discount. The Dolans are the controlling family of MSG and therefore make any transactions difficult to effectuate without their support. And they have indicated that they are not up for unleashing value in the near term and that's one of the reasons the stocks traded such a big discount. But Barron feels that this level of discount the stock is very attractive for those who have patients.

Keith Lanton: 27:45

Another one on the list Pepsi. Pep weighed down in 2023 by the lingering effects Worry about the weight loss drugs like OZEMPEC. Barron's feeling that those concerns are overblown and that Pepsi, at about 20 times earnings, well below its five-year average, represents good value. And then, finally, the last one I'll mention on the list is U-Haul, which dominates the do-it-yourself moving business. Barron feels that what's much underappreciated in U-Haul's business is that they've built up a very large self-storage business. We all know the transportation in the trucks, but U-Haul also now ranking third in self-storage and that business alone could be worth about $8 billion and the total market cap of U-Haul is about $12 billion.

Keith Lanton: 28:30

Earnings are expected to slip this year to about $4.50 a share due to reduced moving activity, but shares at 14 times earnings. Barron's feels that it creates a strong outlook. There is virtually no coverage of U-Haul. It's run like a private company by the Shown family which owns about half of the company. All right, some food for thought for 2024. We'll get some more insights from Brad turning over to Brad this morning. Good morning, brad.

Brad Harris: 28:55

Good morning Keith, good morning everyone. I really can't believe that we're at the end of another year and I want to wish everyone a great and peaceful holiday season. For those who are active participants in the markets this year, we sure can use some downtime. A couple of thoughts as we wind down one of the most volatile years I've ever seen for bonds A rally, a crash and another major rally into the year end.

Brad Harris: 29:20

I think treasuries in the last couple of months have come too far, too fast, and Keith alleged to keep mentioned this earlier. If the tenure is at 390 right now and we were supposedly heading into a normal rate cycle, the Fed would have to cut at least 150 base points to get back into an ascending yield curve. I don't see that happening soon unless, unfortunately, something really bad happens in the economy or the world. I think the Fed would not want to just back into a potentially inflationary situation by cutting too quickly without any urgent reason to do so. That being said, I still feel that municipals in the 10 to 15 year range are attractive, but only when looking at secondary market discount bonds, meaning two and 3% coupons that were thrown away in the tax loss swap selling season, not the current coupons or the primary markets which are, in my opinion, priced to perfection at the moment. If, historically, municipals are fairly priced at 75% of where treasuries are trading and attractive at 90% of treasuries, if the 10 year were to remain at 3.9%, 75% in a municipal would be 2.92% and 90% ina municipal would be about 3.51% of that 10 year 3.9. These are the new yields that we have to keep in mind at this point. I know everyone was thinking four or five, but we're at a different point and everyone needs to wrap our heads around that. If one can buy, for instance, a 15 year 3% municipal at 4.25% yields maturity with a 4% true after tax yield, taken into account the de minimis tax on certain discount bonds, you're getting almost 100% of treasuries. So I'm still comfortable in this range for some new money to find a home.

Brad Harris: 31:19

As we move into the new year with low supply and a lot of bonds being called and maturing, these percentages will most likely get worse For those of you who took advantage of tax loss swap selling this year. As I said last week, we probably have a couple more days to do these without getting killed by year-end illiquidity and I would suggest that you look the next couple of days to see if you have any last minute things to do. It's possible in municipals that after potential continuation of this rally especially with these discount bonds that I mentioned things to get tight and quickly and much quieter by the end of January. So please think about where you would like to be positioned before then. There's no guarantee that we may not have another volatile year ahead.

Brad Harris: 32:07

I just want to thank everyone who had the pleasure of working with all year. It was a tough one and a wild one, but at the end it was, generally speaking, a happy ending for all in the markets. So let's please get some rest for the new year and get back at it at the turn. I want to wish everyone a very healthy and happy new year. Thank you again. Back to Keith. Thanks.

Alan Eppers: 32:27

Thank you, Brad. That's everything I've got. Thank you for listening to Mr Keith Lanton. This podcast is available on most platforms, including Apple Podcasts, Spotify and Pandora. For more information, please visit our website at www. heroldlantern. com.

Sophie Cohen: 32:48

Opinions expressed herein are subject to change and not necessarily the opinion of the firm. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The information presented herein is for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide personal investment advice. It is important that you consider your tolerance for risk and investment goals when making investment decisions. Investing in securities does involve risk and the potential of losing money. The material does not constitute research, investment advice or trade recommendations.