Enlightenment - A Herold & Lantern Investments Podcast
Enlightenment - A Herold & Lantern Investments Podcast
Navigating Financial Strategies: Trump's Policies, Cryptocurrency Rise, and Market Trends
November 25, 2024
Season 6 | Episde 41
Unlock the secrets to navigating President-elect Trump's bold financial strategies and cabinet picks! Join us as we dissect the establishment of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) spearheaded by visionaries Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. These leaders aim to slash $2 trillion from the federal budget, presenting a compelling challenge for reducing discretionary spending amidst rising national debt interests. We'll analyze the potential extension of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act and its implications on deficit reduction, alongside market reactions to NVIDIA's robust earnings and Google's optimistic valuation, as highlighted by Barron's.
Shift your focus to the shifting sands of global trade, where we're observing a notable decline in China's share of U.S. imports while certain industries remain tethered to Chinese manufacturing. We'll explore how Scott Besant's appointment as Treasury Secretary is bolstering market confidence, and unravel complex economic indicators that might nudge Federal Reserve policy. Discover how natural gas exports could evolve under new leadership, and stay informed with the latest corporate updates from Comcast and Macy's. Plus, catch a glimpse of market dynamics across Asia, Europe, and a noteworthy report on Israel and Hezbollah.
Stay ahead of the curve as we dive into the electrifying world of cryptocurrency, with Bitcoin's meteoric rise nearing the $100,000 milestone. We'll explore the ripple effects this surge has across various markets, including MicroStrategy's daring move to issue $3 billion in convertible notes for Bitcoin acquisition. With insights from New York Fed President John Williams on the economic horizon amidst soaring interest rates, and Barron's stance on Alphabet's resilience, this episode is packed with essential financial education and strategic investment ideas from Barron's and other financial news sources. Let Mr. Keith Lanton guide you through considering risk tolerance and investment goals, ensuring your financial decisions are as informed as they are strategic.
** For informational and educational purposes only, not intended as investment advice. Views and opinions are subject to change without notice.
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And now introducing Mr Keith Lanton.
Keith Lanton:Good morning. Today is Monday, November 25th. This week is Thanksgiving, so a little bit less active trading week. Thursday financial markets are closed and on Friday the stock market closes at 1 o'clock in the United States and the bond market closes at 2 o'clock. But before that, we've got lots of information to digest this week and, of course, markets continually assessing President-elect Trump and his selection to his cabinet, and financial markets, paying particular attention to what influences those choices may have on an ongoing basis in terms of market direction and the implications for the US and our allies, as well as our adversaries and those that we both compete with and that we cooperate with. So a lot to talk about this morning. Brad's going to join us to discuss the bond market, which last week was, for the first time in a while, pretty calm. This morning we're seeing some strength in the bond market. We'll talk about that. Futures this morning also higher, so a lot of the trends that we've been seeing throughout the year continuing this morning and we will dive into that Going to talk about.
Keith Lanton:This morning. We're going to start out talking about the DOGE, the Department of Government Efficiency, led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, and we'll also discuss tariffs and what that may mean for financial markets. We'll talk about the president's new pick to run the treasury markets liking that selection this morning, and then we'll dive into last week where we a big event last week was supposed to be NVIDIA's earnings. They came out. They were strong but not a lot of market reaction. But we'll talk about that as well. News flow this morning and then we'll get into what Barron's had to discuss over the weekend. One of the big items a cover story talking about Google and why Barron's feels that Google's valuation is very attractive, and we'll get into the details there.
Keith Lanton:So let's start out talking about the Department of Government Efficiency, where Elon Musk has alluded to reducing $2 trillion of spending cuts, and we'll discuss whether or not that that is realistic. Of course, when it comes to Elon Musk, there's a lot of things that he's already accomplished, so when he says he's going to do something, you do pay a lot of attention. Barron's saying is there anything that Elon Musk can't do? After defying skeptics who said he couldn't sell 2 million Teslas or launch or retrieve rockets from space, slashing $2 trillion a year from the federal budget should be easy peasy according to many of his fans and he and, as I mentioned, mr Ramaswamy have been tasked with heading the DOGE newly hatched Department of Government Efficiency and they're looking to cut $2 trillion in federal spending.
Keith Lanton:Now the trouble is that the total annual amount of federal outlays is $6.1 trillion. So cutting $2 trillion is like cutting one-third of the entire government's spending, and we'll try and put that into a little bit more perspective. Of that $6.1 trillion, only $1.7 trillion is discretionary. So even if you wiped out all of the discretionary spending, you still have to find another $300 billion to cut in terms of getting to that $2 trillion numbers. And the bigger problem is that when you look at that non-discretionary spending, one of those items is soaring and that is interest on the debt, something that we've discussed a lot in the past, and there's nothing that the dynamic duo can do about the fact that we are incurring more debt and, even more problematically, to get that debt down, the cost to finance that debt is not going down but going up. Also, to put this number in perspective, well, you know there are lots of participants in the marketplace who say, well, there's tons of different government jobs that we could cut. There must be a way to get to $2 trillion in spending. There's so much overlap, so many unnecessary positions and a lot of that. Very well may be true, but if you were to eliminate the entire bureaucracy, you were to take out every government job. Total government wages and salaries total, for every single position in the government, $800 billion. So even if you eliminated every single worker working at the federal government, you still need to find another $1.2 trillion in savings. And then let's get to the other component, which is swimming against the current here, making their job more difficult.
Keith Lanton:No fault of Moscow, ramaswamy is the debt and the amount that the deficit is increasing because of the debt. All the notes and bonds that were issued had never before seen coupons of 1% or less. Lots of that was financed with very short-term notes and bills, and a lot of that stuff is rolling off the federal government's balance sheet. And now we're having to replace these 1% bonds or, in some cases, sub-1% bonds with 4% bonds, and that's just the interest. That doesn't have to do with the fact that we're racking up more debt every single day. As a result, last year, total interest on the debt in 2023 that the government paid was $628 billion. In 2024, we're a little north of $900 billion, and 2025 is looking like $1.2 trillion. So lots of work having to get done in order to cut $2 trillion in expenses.
Keith Lanton:On top of the fact that we want to cut $2 trillion in expenses, the incoming Trump administration's top economic priority is to extend the Tax Cut and Jobs Act. That was the signature act of his first term. That tax reduction expires at the end of 2025. And if we were to extend this which is looking reasonably likely in my opinion well, that would cost $4 trillion over the next decade. The original plan cost was about $1.6 trillion. That was the first round of cuts. So if we do extend the Tax Cut and Jobs Act, we would be increasing deficit by about $400 billion a year, making the task of cutting $2 trillion a little bit more difficult. Now that doesn't mean there aren't cuts to be made. The Committee for Responsible Federal Budget listed this past week $700 billion of what they call easy deficit reduction for the next decade. But again, let's put that back in perspective. If you get the Tax Cut and Jobs Act, that's $4 trillion over the next decade. Here we're talking about cutting $700 billion over the next decade.
Keith Lanton:Now one area where one of those key buzzwords that could have an effect and influence in terms of helping the government raise some revenue, and that is artificial intelligence. And if we were to target artificial intelligence at the IRS toward reducing or detecting tax evasion and improving the selection of tax returns for audit, well, that could boost revenue by $4.8 trillion over 10 years, arguably, which is something that would potentially be able to at least pay for the extension of the Trump Tax Cut and Jobs Act. So this is something that some of the tax cheats out there perhaps may start thinking about if they do unleash the artificial intelligence gods within the IRS. Another area that could bring in revenue, of course, also are tariffs. Estimates are that if President-elect Trump were to enact tariffs of 10% to 20% across the board he's talked about 50% for China Well, that could bring in somewhere between $2 and $3 trillion over 10 years.
Keith Lanton:Again, we're not getting to this $2 trillion in one year, so we're talking again about $2 to $300 billion per year. Still a tall order to get to $2 trillion in reduction in the federal deficit. Order to get to $2 trillion in reduction in the federal deficit. Of course, the numbers there for that tariff policy, which could boost revenue, could be offset or partially offset by the fact that our trading partners may not react so calmly to that and they may enact measures to offset some of the benefits that we get from imposing tariffs by imposing tariffs back on us, which means that it would be challenging to get the full benefit of that $2 to $3 trillion over 10 years. And keep in mind that President-elect Trump has also suggested some other measures that would potentially increase the deficit. He's talked about reducing the corporate tax rate to 15% from 21%. He's also talked about not taxing Social Security and not taxing tips from earnings for those who earn tips, and all of that could also potentially further widen the deficit, if in fact, it did come into play. So bond market, as we've talked about, has been concerned about some of these factors occurring, and therefore bond market is expressing concern that the deficit will continue to widen, despite the fact that we've got the very capable hands of Elon Musk, along with Vivek Ramaswamy, out there to reduce the debt. So hopefully they will have lots of success and they will be able to reduce the debt, even if some more of these policies are put into place. But the key here is it's not going to be easy, and the bond market, at least so, is saying that they are concerned.
Keith Lanton:Let's stick with tariffs and some of the implications of tariffs of President-elect Trump's first term, and Wall Street Journal today had an interesting article talking about tariffs and how China is no longer the main source of US imports. Mexico took China's place last year. That seismic shift started in 2018 after President Trump at the time signed into law a round of tariffs on many Chinese imports during his first term, and he has promised to impose another round of tariffs after he returns to the White House in January. Now tariffs, though, have in slow demand for foreign goods. Many items are just finding new ways into the country. So US imports of goods.
Keith Lanton:Back in 2017, right before President Trump started some of his tariff policies we were importing about $2.3 trillion of goods each year. We are now importing about $3.1 trillion in goods, and China now makes up only or still number two, but makes up 14% of all imported goods. That is their lowest percentage since 2014. For China, which industries are still very exposed to China for imports? That would be number one would be import of toys. Over 75% of toys are still made in China. Other big products that are imported in China lithium ion batteries, something that, arguably, is something that we're still very reliant upon, and many teenagers, and perhaps teenagers at heart, will tell you. The other item, which is video game consoles, are also one of the biggest products manufactured in China that we import here into the United States. All right, I mentioned that this morning.
Keith Lanton:We are seeing treasury yields falling and that is certainly good news, and that can be largely attributed to President-elect Trump's choice of hedge fund executive Scott Besant as Treasury Secretary. That, at least for the moment, has calmed investors' nerves about the future of the US economy. Besant is the founder of Key Square Group is expected to back the incoming president's economic goals, including a gradual tariffs and pro-business policy. However, as an old Wall Street hand and fiscal conservative, investors believe Besant will prioritize stability in the US economy and markets. What Bessence said in a CNBC interview earlier this month before he was picked? He said I guarantee you the last thing Trump wants is to cause inflation. And he said I would recommend the tariffs be layered in gradually. Again, this is before he was picked, but notable of his opinion at the time.
Keith Lanton:This week we're also going to get some key data points ahead of a holiday-shortened week. I mentioned markets closed Thursday, early closed Friday, tuesday minutes from the Federal Reserve's most recent policy meeting are expected to be published, as well as the S&P Core Logic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for September. A number of economic updates are expected on Wednesday, but the biggest number markets will be focusing on this week is the October Personal Spending and Income Release, which contains the Personal Consumption and Expenditures Price Index. That's the PCE. Contains the Personal Consumption and Expenditures Price Index. That's the PCE. This is what the Federal Reserve has said is one of the primary inputs that they use to evaluate inflation. Economists expect a 2.8% year-over-year increase at the core level, excluding volatile food and energy, and a 2.3% year-over-year increase in the headline level that's per Dow Jones estimates. As the final PCE release before the Fed's December meeting, investors will be looking for hints as to the central bank's next policy move. So that's what we've got to look forward to this week as we look back to last week.
Keith Lanton:Last week, we got earnings from NVIDIA. That was supposed to be the big catalyst. Last week, investors were expecting big things, or big swings from NVIDIA. Based on what's taken place the last few times NVIDIA's reported earnings the options market had priced in almost a 9% move either way up or down ahead of the Wednesday earnings release last week and instead the stock barely budged. It was up about a half a percent on Thursday, finished the week up less than 1%. The good news was the market didn't need NVIDIA to provide a pop. S&p 500, nasdaq and Dow each rose about 1.5%. But even those numbers obscure just how strong the market was. Last week, the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Index something that has lagged the indexes recently well, that gained 2.3%, outperforming the 1.5%, and the Russell Small Cap 2000 was up 3.3%, pretty much doubling the return on the indexes.
Keith Lanton:S&p. We've talked about these elevated levels, trading around 22 times forward earnings, highest since 2020. To see multiples meaningfully higher than that, one has to go back to the dot-com era, which may be one reason the market has started to look beyond the magnificent 7. That equal weight S&P 500 ETF is trading at 17.6 times earnings. That index peaked at 22 back in 2020. And the S&P small cap 600, which excludes unprofitable companies, still only trades at 16.7 times earnings.
Keith Lanton:So what's going on this morning? Well, we are seeing markets largely on the back of the pick for Treasury Secretary. Markets approving that this morning. Dow futures up about 328, getting extra lift here as bond yields have come down. S&p futures about 31 over fair value about 31 over fair value. Nasdaq futures about 115 points over fair value.
Keith Lanton:Interesting this morning natural gas on commentary that President Trump on day one will export natural gas. Put back in place some of the restrictions, but not put back in place. Lift the restrictions that the Biden administration put on natural gas exports a moratorium. Natural gas this morning up 20 cents, 6.5%. Bucking. Other commodities all of which are lower. Gold down about 1%. Silver down 1.5%. Oil down about half of 1% this morning. We are seeing the dollar stronger this morning, dollar versus euro down to about 1.05.
Keith Lanton:Some companies in the news Comcast this morning with some movies out and we saw very strong box office sales from both Wicked and Gladiator 2. Also in the news this morning Macy's symbol M. They guided lower but also importantly, they announced that they have found some irregularities in their accounting, that an accountant was incorrectly accruing or not accruing expenses for deliveries to the tune of over $100 million over the last several years. So Macy's is going to delay their earnings so that weighing on the stock this morning. Macy's, of course, is the sponsor of the New York parade here. Stocks down about 3% this morning. Good earnings from Bath Body Works. Bbwi stocks up about 14%. Wi stocks up about 14%, about four and a half points. This morning. Markets in Asia mostly on a higher note and European markets are also trading modestly higher.
Keith Lanton:News this morning Axios reporting that Israel and Hezbollah are nearing a ceasefire agreement after a bunch of escalation over the weekend. We talked about Treasury Secretary Besant. He's saying that his priority will be working on extending the tax cuts and he will also focus on enacting tariffs. Cbs News is reporting that 59% of Americans approve how President-elect Trump is handling his transition. I mentioned that he will remove the pause on liquid natural gas exports. In addition to the Treasury Secretary, president-elect Trump nominated Representative Lori Chavez de Remmer as Secretary of Labor, david Weldon as the CDC Director, dr Marty Makary from John Hopkins for FDA commissioner, wall Street Journal reporting that TikTok has contacted Elon Musk about the incoming Trump administration and Bloomberg reporting that the Supreme Court will review the FCC's $8 billion in phone subsidies. This week I mentioned the economic reports we have to look forward to. There's also just a handful of earnings. This week we get earnings from Zoom, video Communications, agilent Technologies, crowdstrike, autodesk, dell Technologies, hp and Workday.
Keith Lanton:Bitcoin has been soaring. It's approached the $100,000 level, having a little bit of trouble piercing that, but certainly has appreciated very significantly since the election of President-elect Trump. But Bitcoin had been on its way up even before then. It's just gone into another level of the atmosphere since then and as a result of some of this cryptocurrency wealth. Last week you may have heard that the artwork of a banana taped to the wall with some duct tape in the shape of an X well, that sold for $6.2 million. The buyer was a cryptocurrency operator.
Keith Lanton:If you're looking for, perhaps, some area where perhaps the markets are getting irrational, well, some of the cryptocurrency-oriented stocks may be a place to look. One in particular, microstrategy. Mstr is the symbol who has a company that's been buying up lots of Bitcoin and been in some play on Bitcoin. Last week, microstrategy issued $3 billion of five-year convertible notes. Now get the terms here for MicroStrategy for these notes, they raised $3 billion. So these are convertible notes that pay zero interest. Zero, like nada, nil, zilch, zero. They are convertible into MicroStrategy stock at $672 a share, which is 55% ahead of where it traded at the time of the deal. So you're buying notes that pay you no interest and the strike price is 55% above the price at the time of the offering and you're able to sell $3 billion of these notes. So what do you do when you take this $3 billion, which you sold at awfully high prices and with awfully low yields? Well, what they do is they go out and they buy up more Bitcoin, which is perhaps one of the reasons that the Bitcoin stock price has been rising. You get an additional $3 billion of demand for a company that's able to issue capital at close to zero cost and you are able to suddenly see all sorts of the implications of this strategy. And we see it with Bitcoin moving higher. By comparison, the S&P 500 index, trading at 22 times expected earnings, which we talked about, is on the high end of historical ranges. That doesn't seem outrageous. That's about a 31% increase premium to its historical range from 2005 to 2019. And that 31% premium is occurring when interest rates right now on the 10-year around 4.3%. Then, if you go back to 2015 to 2019, when the S&P 500 was at a lower multiple, we had interest rates in the 2% to 3% range. So perhaps the S&P 500 elevated when you take all those factors into account, but certainly not elevated relative to what's taking place in the cryptocurrency space.
Keith Lanton:Moving on to Barron's, they interviewed New York Fed President John Williams. He is president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and he gave his outlook on what he sees going forward and, being that he is a permanent member of the Federal Open Market Committee, his opinion has that much more heft or weight to it. When he was asked how does the economic landscape look to you, he said economic growth has been very good. At the same time, we've seen a pretty steady cooling of the labor market. We're seeing inflation steadily come down from its very high levels. He said he expects gross domestic product for the year to be around 2.5%. He expects the labor market to continue where it is and maybe slow a little further. Current unemployment rate is 4.1%, he said maybe it'll get to 4.25%. He said he expects inflation to continue to gradually come down. That would certainly be a positive for both the stock and bond market. He said he's expecting inflation to be around 2.25% for the full year. When asked where he expects the Fed funds rate to be at the end of 2025, he acknowledged that lots of factors could change his outlook between now and then, but nevertheless, if he had a guess, he'd said well, the Fed funds rate will be lower by the end of 2025 than it is now. How much lower? He wasn't confident to give an assessment.
Keith Lanton:So headline story of Barron's cover story, cover story big article was on the magnificent seven stock that has lagged in the last six months and has certainly been in the news with all sorts of antitrust talks and talks of breaking it up. And that is Google and Barron's coming out definitively and strongly saying that Google will survive not only breakup calls but also AI and why Alphabet stock could gain 50%. So Alphabet shareholders, they said, have every right to be worried. Last week the government hit Google and hit it hard, when it put forward remedies to break Google's hold on search, which includes its Chrome browser, causing the stock to fall about 5% to about $167 on Thursday. Alphabet, however, is more than up to the task of defending itself. Since going in public in 2004 at a split-adjusted price of $2.13. Google has shifted and navigated all sorts of challenges, including the transition from desktops to mobile phones. If you may remember that at the time, that was considered an existential crisis for Google and Meta Facebook at the time. While the future will be more complicated, generative AI has the potential not to necessarily subtract revenue but add revenue as Gemini, which is Google's AI tool, ramps up and becomes more powerful. While the government's attempt to break Alphabet apart could be an overhang, barron saying it appears to be reflected in the stock, which is the cheapest of the Magnificent Seven and even cheaper than the S&P 500 index.
Keith Lanton:In February, technology research firm Gartner projected the total search engine volume would drop by 25% by 2026. There's only one problem with those dire predictions Data does not back it up at all. At this time, microsoft was the first mover putting ChatGBT into Bing. You may remember at the time there were all sorts of claims that if Microsoft just took 1% of the search market from Google, well, it would translate into $2 billion into incremental revenue for Microsoft. What's the tally been so far? How much search has Microsoft captured in terms of market share? Well, so far, microsoft has captured no market share from Google or Alphabet.
Keith Lanton:What's more, alphabet's October earnings report showed no signs of a search slowdown. It's easily topped earnings and sales forecasts, while revenue from its cloud business grew 35%. But it was search that was perhaps the most surprising. Anyone who visited Google recently noticed that the service often provides an AI-generated summary of the findings, as well as a list of links. Of course, we still have no idea how they'll really monetize AI or other innovations, but the perceived threats will have to wait. As Google's search growth of 12% beat estimates modestly, wrote analyst Ben Reitz this past week.
Keith Lanton:Novel ways to earn money from sifting through information Search. Behavior has already moved to a dual revenue stream subscriptions and ads and Alphabet is playing in both pools. Google One has over 100 million subscribers and its premium version includes Alphabet's highest level AI functionality for $20 a month. Chatgvt's premium product has about 10 million subscribers at the moment. Now AI may not be able to slow Alphabet slash Google down, but the antitrust risk is real, as this past week's decline demonstrates. But Barron's argues that the stock reflects these antitrust concerns, trading at 19.5 times earnings below the S&P 500's 22 times earnings.
Keith Lanton:Oak Market Select Portfolio Manager Bill Nygren goes even further. He argues that Alphabet, with a market value of $2.1 trillion, including cash and debt, is worth more than the sum of its parts. Forcing investors to recognize the value of each business would probably make the stock go up. He argues the stock could be worth $260 a share if you look at it as a sum of its pieces. Search worth about $140 a share, youtube worth about $65 a share, cloud and Waymo each worth about $26 a share. Now, as for the upside, you could argue and justify a $260 price target based on the sum of its parts, which would be up 55% from Thursday's close.
Keith Lanton:Now that breakup. You know it's not looking like the most likely scenario, at least at the moment, but can't rule it out. So you got to go back and take a look and say, hey, alphabet is the world's dominant tech company, main place that people go for search. And if it just got back to its historical premium relative to the market, well, alphabet would trade at about 26 times earnings and would be worth about $234 a share, up about 40%. Nygren continues we think of it as a high multiple tech stock that isn't priced like one. With that it's 9 o'clock. Going to wrap it up. Turn it over to Brad. Give you some more thoughts this morning to think about as you eat your turkey on Thursday. Good morning, brad.
Brad Harris:Good morning Keith. Good morning everyone. Hope everyone had a nice weekend. Last week I suggested that even with all the talking heads out there, there was no guarantee that long rates are going higher. I didn't have a strong opinion one way or the other. I just said don't bet the house that they are going higher. I'd suggest that we might be in a trading range. Not that I have a crystal ball, but the only crystal ball that I have for over 35 years of trading bonds is don't necessarily expect what is expected. So here we are this morning with the 10-year all the way back down to 4.3%, from a high of almost 4.5%. Like people say about buying and holding stocks at times. You know, if you make a panic move in bonds too, you may have missed out on a little, and I can say now that we still do not have a certain path for the future either way. But whatever your path is, continue to stay your course. What is a certainty is that you always have the opportunity to improve your portfolio.
Brad Harris:One of the historically best ways to do this is through tax law swaps, and one of the easiest products to use for this are municipal bonds. Because of the wash sale rule, you cannot sell a security for a loss and actually realize that loss if you happen to buy that identical security back within 31 days of the sale. Because municipals have so many different issuers and structures, you can create a loss while buying a similar but not identical issue. For instance, as a simple example, if you own a 3% New York City geo doing 20 years at par in round numbers, let's say you sell those at 80 cents on the dollar and then you take those proceeds and you buy a 23-year New York City water 3.18% bond, again for simplicity, let's say, also at $0.80. As long as two of the three characteristics are different, the swap works and you realize the loss. In this case, all three characteristics are different issuer, coupon and maturity.
Brad Harris:For those of you who look to take some high-flying stocks off the table or maybe have gains from elsewhere, not even in the stock market, this is a great way to create a phantom loss I should say quote-unquote phantom loss while essentially maintaining the structure of your portfolio. Also, please remember, there may be a de minimis tax on your buy when you do buy a discount bond, but this should not put much of a dent in what your goal is here, which is really to take the big loss to offset the gain that you have. I strongly recommend that everyone reviews their municipal holdings because losses that are realized can also be carried forward indefinitely for future years. Last, as I mentioned last week, this week is Thanksgiving and in four weeks we have Christmas and New Year's, so please do not wait until last minute to consider this or any strategy. The less liquidity in the market, the more difficulties become to execute at good prices. I hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving week. I'll send it back to Keith.
Keith Lanton:Thank you, brad.
Keith Lanton:That's everything I've got.
Alan Eppers:Thank you for listening to Mr Keith Lanton. This podcast is available on most platforms, including Apple Podcasts, Spotify and Pandora. For more information, please visit our website at www. heraldlantern. com.
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