
Enlightenment - A Herold & Lantern Investments Podcast
Enlightenment - A Herold & Lantern Investments Podcast
Year-End Financial Strategies: Navigating Market Shifts and Maximizing Gains
December 23, 2024 | Season 6 | Episode 44
This episode focuses on strategic year-end considerations that can lead to better financial outcomes for 2025, emphasizing tax strategies, market sentiment, and valuable habits for improvement. Listeners are provided insights on stock performance expectations, particularly regarding value stocks and municipal bonds, alongside practical advice for managing their investment portfolios amidst upcoming market uncertainties.
• Importance of year-end tax strategies
• Tips on reducing tax liabilities with gains and losses
• How personal practices affect stress and decision-making
• The Federal Reserve's impact on market sentiment
• Value stocks vs. high-growth stocks
• Overview of notable stocks and potential investments
• The case for municipal bonds in the current market
• Portfolio management tips for 2025
** For informational and educational purposes only, not intended as investment advice. Views and opinions are subject to change without notice.
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And now introducing Mr Keith Lanton.
Keith Lanton:Good morning. Today is Monday, December 23rd. Got one more Monday left in 2024 before we head into 2025. I want to start out by wishing everyone a very Merry Christmas, a Happy Hanukkah, and we will get another opportunity to wish you all a very happy new year. Today is full trading day, tomorrow, christmas Eve. The equity markets close at 1 o'clock, the bond market closes at 2 o'clock and Wednesday, here in the United States, markets are closed in observance of Christmas Day. So before we head off into 2025, I want to once again remind all listeners that this is time of year to do the final preparations for year-end.
Keith Lanton:Make sure you double-check your year-end tax forecast. Perhaps you've had gains in 2024. Perhaps you've had losses and you can take some gains and not pay taxes. Taxpayers are entitled to $3,000 of losses in addition to any gains that they have taken. So, for example, if you have $10,000 in realized gains this year, you could take losses up to $13,000 and therefore have a tax loss of $3,000 on your 2024 tax return. If you have losses that exceed $3,000, assuming you don't have any tax loss carry-forwards then you can carry forward that balance into the following year. If you've got tax loss carry-forwards from previous years, that would be accretive and you would add those together. So think about what you can do here to minimize your taxes going into 2025. I also want to remind anyone who's listening who is age 73 or older to take your required minimum distribution if required. Just one week and a day left in order to get that done, all right. So, as we think about the end of the year, we want to think about our portfolios. We want to look back on 2024.
Keith Lanton:This morning we're going to start out. I'm going to talk about just some thoughts on approaching not just investments, but approaches to how we think better, how we manage our own personal lives, how we may want to self-improve, and this is some commentary from James Clear, author of Atomic Habits, that I've shared previously with you in the past some of his thoughts. Then we'll talk about the markets 2024. Despite last week's sell-off, it has been a great year for equity markets. We have seen bond yields on the 10-year and 30-year climb, even as the Federal Reserve has reduced interest rates. We'll talk a little bit about bonds, talk about how to position your portfolio no-transcript and we'll talk about the news this morning, which is a little quieter than usual given the Christmas week, but we have to look forward to next week, and then we're going to talk about a few individual stocks a couple that mentioned positively and a couple that were mentioned both negatively, as well as one that was discussed and talked about. That's a much-loved stock that Barron says, despite its beautiful business, perhaps it has gotten a little bit further out over its britches and perhaps needs a breather. And then we'll talk about a Barron's article talking about the bond market, specifically municipal bonds, because Brad's not here, although I know he'd love this article on municipal bonds, speaking positively on them in Barron's over the weekend.
Keith Lanton:All right, well, here we are Christmas time, new Year's, hanukkah time, and this is typically a time of the year when folks are getting ready, lots of family getting together and, despite all the joy, there is often a lot of stress associated with the holiday time. So, in order to think about how we can possibly get ourselves a little bit better situated during this stressful time of the year, think about that. You are better equipped to deal with stress when you are moving. When you feel tense or frustrated or worried, it is difficult to think your way into feeling better. The more you think about the situation, the more it becomes challenging for you to focus and to think clearly. So perhaps you should just go out for a walk, perhaps stretch your muscles, stretch yourself, do some exercise, get out there, do some activity, and that often will be a stress reliever. As we reflect on our lives in the end of the year, many of us are thinking well, it's another year, I'm another year older, but your biological age is the number of days you have lived. Think about the psychological age that you have. That's the number of thoughts that you've entertained, and your sociological age is the number of contributions you have made.
Keith Lanton:As we think about 2025, how we can self-improve and get better, think of two simple rules. One, you get better at what you practice. Two, everything is practice. Look around and you may be surprised what people are practicing each day. If you consider each moment a repetition, what are most people training for all day long? Well, many people are practicing getting mad on social media. Others are practicing the fine art of noticing how they have been wronged, but of course, it doesn't have to be that way. Think about what is it that you are practicing.
Keith Lanton:Think about also what it is that you want to attract, and think about what you want to attract is often what you do. Attract is often a result of what you are, the messages that you are sending. So you draw out of the world what you put into it. If you want to attract reliable people, be reliable. You want to attract trustworthy people, be trustworthy. You want to attract welcoming people, be welcoming. If you want to attract exceptional people, be exceptional. Exceptional people, be exceptional. And I'll end with a quote. This is from a poet and novelist, charles Bukowski, on forging your own reality. And he said I was waiting for something extraordinary to happen, but as the years wasted on, nothing ever did unless I caused it. No-transcript.
Keith Lanton:Last week, the Federal Reserve came out with their decision on interest rates. As expected, the Federal Reserve kept rates lower. They dropped rates by a quarter of 1%, but they did change their narrative. Markets did not react favorably. We'll talk a little bit about what happened in financial markets and perhaps how you want to position your portfolio here at year-end, heading into 2025.
Keith Lanton:So last week was a little bit of an ugly week for the US equity markets. The S&P 500 index dropped 2.3 percent. The growth year NASDAQ dropped 2.1 percent. It was a particularly bad week for the Dow. This past week it suffered its Eight straight days of decline. That was, as of Monday, even as the NASDAQ was hitting a record high. That's the first time that ever occurred. Dow down eight straight days, nasdaq setting a record, and then the Dow's losing streak extended to 10 days it's longest since 1974. Before ending with a 15-point rise on Thursday. All told, the Dow last week lost 2.6%, and that's despite recent additions to the Dow, including NVIDIA and Microsoft. But the Dow maybe wondering why it perhaps underperformed does have a value tilt favoring stocks with low valuations relative to the market, and value stocks have been having a tough time.
Keith Lanton:No-transcript Value stocks tend to be more sensitive to the economy, so they are more likely to reflect anything that shakes confidence in the big picture than their growth counterparts. Now, the market was already assuming the Federal Reserve would be less dovish in 2025, and the central bank leaned in even more hawkish. So the market's expecting dovish. And what do we get? We get more hawkish than anticipated. And what do we get? We get more hawkish than anticipated. And how is the Fed more hawkish? Well, it signaled that it would cut interest rates only twice next year at Wednesday's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. And fewer rate cuts could mean slower economic growth and weaker returns for value stocks.
Keith Lanton:The potential bad news, however, looks thoroughly reflected in value stocks. According to Barron's, the pure value ETF now is trading at just 10 times 12-month forward earnings, well below the S&P 500, which is trading at just under 22 times forward earnings, and the Invesco pure growth ETF, which is trading at about 24 times earnings. So perhaps and we've said this before, but perhaps this time is the time it may be time to play catch up. A broad group of value stocks tracked by Sentiment Trader is near its lowest level versus growth in almost 20 years. The last time relative prices were at these levels was in the early 2000s and value stocks went on to outperform growth over the coming years. Add it all up the earnings, the valuation, the long-term underperformance and it seems like a good time to allocate a bit more money to value stocks now. Us large value equities are very attractive, according to Ben Inker of GMO. He says, in fact, they have almost never been cheaper relative to the overall markets, and he said that GMO believes that value is set to outperform growth in the beginning of 2025.
Keith Lanton:Now let's talk a little bit about the Fed Barron's in the up and down. Wall Street column entitled the Stock Market Needed a Washout. What sentiment says about what comes next? There comes a time when every party hits a lull, at which point it either picks up or disperses in disappointment. The stock market hit that point last week, so when everyone was having a really good time, markets were setting record highs.
Keith Lanton:Even the expected can catch folks by surprise. That was the case on Wednesday. That Fed decision cutting rates by a quarter of a point, just as the Fed fund market suggested it would, but the dot plots out of the Federal Reserve governors showed just two cuts in 2025. So some are now calling this rate cut a hawkish rate cut, meaning it was a cut, but the Fed governor is now suggesting that they will be more aggressive in terms of not cutting rates, in terms of being vigilant about inflation. And therefore the S&P on Wednesday dropped almost 3% that day 2.94%. That was the worst decline on a Federal Reserve decision since 2001. And we mentioned that on that day the Dow suffered its 10th consecutive loss, worst streak since 1974. So two things caught investors off guard. First, the shift to fewer rate cuts in 2025 means the Fed will be less of a force for good in the market than it was heading into the meeting. The language of the statement also changed in a way that suggested rate cuts could be off the table completely next year, something the markets were not expecting. So, bottom line, some are saying the Fed did provide a legitimate surprise, but these factors may not have created the same sell-off if investors hadn't been so bulled up in the first place.
Keith Lanton:Investors going into the Fed decision widely expected the S&P 500 to build on its 25% gain that it had. Going into that meeting and at a Santa Claus rally was all but assured. Markets weren't set up for the alternative. So when almost everyone is feeling nonchalant about the risks, well, that's a good time for a reminder that there actually are risks when you do invest in equities. A collapse in near-term sentiment would likely be good news for stocks. Rallies like bull markets, are born on pessimism, and the more pessimism this past week's sell-off produces, the bigger a foundation there will be to build upon. Conversely, bull markets die in euphoria and the recent drop has done not that much to change the euphoria that was being built up, and investor sentiment, while taking a slight hit, still remains quite ebullient.
Keith Lanton:Now Citigroup devised an index here. Tobias Likovic came up with an index that is now called the Likovic Index, named after him, after he tragically died in 2021. But previously it was known as the Panic Euphoria Index that he had created and it's a measure to help gauge where the S&P 500 will be in 12 months, based on 10 sentiment factors. When the index sits in panic territory, it typically means the market will be higher in a year. When it's in euphoria, the market typically is lower 12 months out and as of Friday, it sat near its highest level since 2021, which suggests that the S&P 500 could fall 6.3% over the next year. Now the measure can stay in euphoric territory and even get more extended, and that was the case during the pandemic and the dot-com boom. But euphoric episodes, while they can persist longer than expected, they do come to an end and it's usually produced by some event or shock, and it remains to be seen whether Wednesday's Federal Reserve commentary was that shock or change necessary to change that trajectory of that index in the short term.
Keith Lanton:So what to do with your portfolio? Well, markets may be heading into a bumpier end to 2024. Perhaps we'll see a bumpier 2025. We've gotten used to a really smooth ride in equity markets and that may cause some unease going forward. The Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday gave us a little bit of a reminder that things don't always move as smoothly as we've gotten accustomed to lately, and this doesn't just apply to the equity markets. The bond markets took quite a beating on Wednesday as well. We are looking at 10-year Treasury yields north of 4.5%. The question, of course, is will markets resume their climb and will the policies of President-elect Trump help or hamper things in 2025?
Keith Lanton:Investors are now grappling with more uncertainty than they've known in several years. S&p 500 index's 23% rise this year has certainly goosed up some investors' portfolios and 401ks. But, as always, where the market goes from here is anyone's guess. But the good news is you don't need a crystal ball to prepare your portfolio. Most of the moves investors should consider now have more to do with market performance and less to do with who will occupy the White House. Again, a reminder whether Republicans in office, democrats in office. Returns are usually pretty close, regardless. From 1926 to 2023, the average return for the S&P 500 under a Republican sweep of the White House and Congress, like we've got now 14.5% annual return, and when you've got the Democratic sweep of the White House and Congress, you're looking at historical returns of 14%. So, rather than plotting big moves based on tea leaves, make sure your mix of stocks and bonds is aligned with your goals. We've talked about this over and over Stocks.
Keith Lanton:Big run up means you could have a higher equity allocation than you bargained for, especially if you haven't made any tweaks after the S&P 500's 23% plus gain in 2023. Specifically, you might have too much in big tech, which now makes up nearly a third of the S&P 500. So keep your position, but right size it. Maybe your target allocation is 60% stocks and now you have 70%. Consider selling some winners and plowing the proceeds into less loved corners of the market. Keep in mind if you've got appreciated securities in a taxable account, you will face capital gains. We've talked about that. If your equity position is entirely large cap, you may want to consider small cap and you could also consider plowing the proceeds into bonds. While bonds have struggled of late, despite rate cuts, including the percentage point reduction on Wednesday, yields are more compelling now, offering a bit more income above the expected inflation rate. Ten-year treasury yield I just mentioned it this morning now is up to 4.56%. If you have an asset allocation that you're comfortable with, you will be less likely to panic and rush into cash at the first sign of turbulence.
Keith Lanton:All right, let's take a look at what's going on this morning. Let's take a look at equity markets. We're seeing futures deteriorate since we got on this call at 830. Still modestly to the downside on the Dow and modestly the upside on the Nasdaq, although the Dow has gotten weaker, as has the Nasdaq, since we started this call. The Dow futures right now down about 185 points, almost half a percent lower. S&p futures, though, are modestly flat. They're down nine points, that's just 0.1% lower, and NASDAQ futures are about 18 points to the upside, about one-tenth of a percent higher. So we've got a little bit of a mixed vibe. Market participants perhaps in vacation mode in front of this week's holiday-related closures. New York Stock Exchange closes at 1 o'clock tomorrow. As I mentioned, bonds at two Again. Markets closed on Wednesday for Christmas.
Keith Lanton:Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a mostly higher note. Volume on the light side, given the Christmas related closures Japan up 1%, the Hang Seng up just under 1% in Hong Kong. China, though lower by half a percent. Australia, south Korea up about 1.5% each. Major European indices trading near their flat lines ahead of Christmas-related closures that will begin tomorrow.
Keith Lanton:Oil this morning is down about half of 1%, about $0.40, just under $70 a barrel. Natural gas has been rising as hopes are that the US will be exporting more natural gas, which means there'll be a little less supply here in the US. So US natural gas prices have risen significantly and quietly in the past several months. Natural gas is up to about $3.81 as a measure. That number had been about eight or nine months ago below two. So almost a doubling of natural gas from the lows.
Keith Lanton:Some individual stocks in the news Honda and Nissan are in merger talks as they try and compete more effectively with the Chinese. Quite an amazing change in trajectory here. We have two large Japanese automakers possibly compiling to take on the Chinese in the auto space. Just a little while ago that kind of would have been unthinkable that the Japanese, who are the auto powerhouses, would have to take action to fend off competition from Chinese auto companies, which we considered very poor quality and not that competitive. And you see how quickly things can change in the manufacturing of vehicles here.
Keith Lanton:Other companies in the news Eli Lilly up about 1.5% this morning. The FDA has approved Zepbound as the first and only prescription medicine for moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea in adults with obesity. We are seeing Nova Nordisk this morning higher after selling off significantly at the end of last week due to results showing that their drug for weight loss was not as effective as Eli Lilly's. Coming up a little shy of hopes there, modest bounce this morning in that stock. Nova Nordisk Boeing is up another 1.3%. Boeing has been climbing steadily used the airplane metaphor over the last several months after a very rough several years and perhaps markets are getting a little bit more optimistic about a recovery at Boeing. Apple this morning is up about a point they are considering introducing smart lock devices for homes. Qualcomm this morning up almost 3%. Jurors found the company didn't violate terms of agreement covering arm holding designs. That's ARM stock.
Keith Lanton:In the news, Washington Post talking about that. Congress passed a bill to fund the government through March 14th, averting a government shutdown. That bill also contains $100 billion for disaster relief. Politico reporting that House Republicans plan on addressing the debt ceiling next year through a budget reconciliation process which requires only 50 Senate votes, and they plan on raising the debt limit by $1.5 trillion and making $2.5 trillion in spending cuts. Axios is saying that House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries privately said that his party may engage with President-elect Trump's demand that the debt ceiling be abolished next year. Financial Times saying that President-elect Trump plans to withdraw the US from the World Health Organization, axios saying President Trump suggests that he will allow TikTok to stay around, and Reuters talking about President Trump threatening to retake control of the Panama Canal, which the leader of Panama said is non-negotiable. And President-elect Trump's response on social media was we'll see, all right.
Keith Lanton:So what's going on this week? Well, today we get the conference board releasing Consumer Confidence Index for December. That's at 10 o'clock today. The estimate is for a reading of 113, which would be about 1.3 points higher than it was last month. Also, on Tuesday, we get Durable Goods Reports for November, expecting a decline of three.3%, of 1%, excluding transportation, looking for it to rise by 0.3%. And then on Wednesday, markets closed for Christmas. We've talked about that. We are seeing, as we're talking, that futures are selling off a little bit more. Dow futures are now down about 225 points and NASDAQ futures are now relatively flat.
Keith Lanton:A couple of individual companies in the news. I'll start with a positive article, and this was actually in Barron's last week, not this week, just didn't get a chance to discuss it and Barron's speaking positively about ExxonMobil symbol X-O-M, saying that oil prices are expected to fall next year, which is a problem for the average oil company, wouldn't sound like it would be a positive article on Barron's. But at its investor day about 10 days ago, exxonmobil made a strong case that it is not an average oil company. Exxon is arguing it can spend more on a few high return projects while otherwise decreasing its cost base. The reason to believe the company is that it's already done that over the past five years and the stock has outperformed all of its big oil competitors. Between 2009 and 2024, exxon invested more than its peers and it paid off. The company has more than doubled its expected earnings and cut its net debt by 70%. The stock now yields about 3.5%. The company has been able to hike its dividend every year and the company is on track to keep buying back stock $20 billion worth of stock a year, or about 4% of its market cap. Exxon is trading about 14 times 2025 earnings per share at discount to its historical average. Exxon now says it can cover its capital costs and its dividend even if oil fell to $30 a barrel At oil prices around 65, which is just below today's levels. The company says it can increase its earnings at a compound rate of 10% for the next six years. By 2030, exxon's production of oil and oil equivalents could rise to 5.4 million barrels a day from 3.7 million barrels last year.
Keith Lanton:I mentioned I was going to talk about a stock that is a darling of Wall Street and certainly has run their business tremendously well. But Barron's saying that it is no longer a company that they think is worthy of purchasing at these levels. In fact, they say sell the stock. It's no bargain. And this stock is Costco symbol, c-o-s-t.
Keith Lanton:Barron's saying Costco has become the palantir of retailing, with a rich valuation, a cult following, and investors should start heading to the exits. Although they say there is absolutely nothing wrong with Costco's business. Members put up with crowds, long checkout lines for some of the best deals in retailing. Certainly, the performance has been spectacular. Stock is up 600-fold since its 1985 public offering and it's the kind of stock that investors are willing to pay dearly for. And Barron's suggesting that they should pay dearly for the stock, but perhaps at these levels they are paying too dearly.
Keith Lanton:Costco shares, which have gained 45% this year, now trade for 53 times projected earnings. No other company in the top 20 of the S&P 500 index Costco ranks 18th comes close based on 2025 earnings, except for Tesla, which has a PE of over 100. Costco, they say, looks expensive next to growth stock favorites Apple, microsoft, nvidia and MasterCard, which trade around 30 times forward earnings, while the PE of Walmart and Amazon are around 35. But Costco doesn't have the superior growth relative to those companies to back up its current valuation. Its projected growth in earnings per share over the next few years, about 10% annually, is less than some of these stocks and its PE to growth rate is at about five, against two or three for most growth stocks. It's also pricey relative to its own history. Brian Yarbo, a retailing analyst at Edward Jones, points out that Costco traded 40 times forward earnings at the start of 2024, 30 times before the pandemic. So that means the stock could stall out as earnings catch up with its price or drop 15 to 20% if there is a market sell-off or an unexpected profit or revenue miss.
Keith Lanton:I said I would mention two stocks that were mentioned unfavorably Costco not necessarily unfavorably, just unfavorably relative to valuation, but Supermicro Computer, smci, which has been a wild ride for investors and has been an artificial intelligence play, barons out questioning the management of Supermicro and thereby, by extension if management isn't necessarily doing the right thing perhaps with their personal lives. Perhaps that's concerningged $20 million for called Forestry Research and Barron's saying that years later, this charity that was set up to do this research basically consists of 100 trees and a vineyard, and therefore Barron's questioning sort of the integrity of the CEO of Supermicro, sort of the integrity of the CEO of Supermicro At the Silicon Valley headquarters of this charity enterprise called Green Earth Foundation. The CEO his name is Ling at Supermicro said that researchers are propagating species of drought-resistant trees that could be planted by the tens of millions in one of the planet's most forgiving environments, the Sahara Desert. He said this charity and this research is his way to give back to Mother Earth. The Green Earth Foundation consists of two interlocking nonprofits that CEO Liang and his wife, supermicro co-founder Sarah Liu, have run and supported with millions of dollars in company shares over more than a decade. The couple probably has qualified for some big tax breaks in exchange for these charitable givings of their stock, and Barron's is questioning what exactly this charity does. Barron's is questioning what exactly this charity does. An investigation by Barron's found little evidence to show that the Liangs are fulfilling their stated philanthropical goals. Barron's saying the forestry work that they say is being done on these drought-resistant trees appears limited to 100 trees that have been planted at the Presidio, which is a historic San Francisco military site. They say most of the group's funding has gone to acquire pristine land in the San Francisco Bay Area A picturesque but money-losing vineyard in the mountains above the city of Santa Cruz that the charities heavily subsidize, and a vast rustic estate near Supermicro's San Jose office campus. So Barron's saying that the Liang's charities add to the questions around the executive and his company.
Keith Lanton:Short seller Hindenburg recently published a report about Supermicro, alleging major corporate red flags at the company, including undisclosed related party transaction with family members of insiders. Supermicro's former financial auditor, ernst Young, resigned in October saying it was unwilling to endorse the server maker's financial disclosures. Ceo Liang has said that the Hindenburg report contains false or inaccurate statements. Supermicro appointed accounting firm BDO as its new auditor in November and recently said that a special committee of its board of directors found no evidence of fraud by management. So we will see if these allegations by Barron's about how Liang, the CEO of Supermicro, has handled his personal business, whether or not this approach is something that has been carried forward to the company and whether or not it sort of wears off and the company's allegations of wrongdoing perhaps have a similar tinge to these charitable allegations. All right, onward. Final item I will discuss.
Keith Lanton:I mentioned Brad not on the call today, so let's talk about municipal bonds. Now is the time to park cash in muni funds. Barron says how to play it. Investors who are sitting on a mountain of cash can find some of the best opportunities in years in municipal bonds and bond funds. Barron is saying the muni market has a lot going for it right now, with yields solid even on high credit quality issues.
Keith Lanton:Municipalities are generally in good fiscal shape and the economy looks to remain solid going into 2025, says Paul Malloy, head of US Municipals at Vanguard Group. Current pre-tax yields on muni bonds in the intermediate part of the AA credit quality are hovering between 3% and 3.5%, which is shy of the current 4.25% and 4.5% offered by Treasury 5 and 10-year notes respectively. Funds are exempt from federal income taxes and may also be exempt from state taxes of residents by state-specific bonds or funds For an investor in a high-tax state who is close to the highest tax bracket. Some effective muni yields are closer to 6% or even 7%, rivaling long-term equity returns. Some investors are taking advantage of higher yields. Us muni market has seen net inflows of $42 billion into mutual funds and ETFs. That's through November of this year.
Keith Lanton:Dan Close, head of municipal strategies at Nuveen, saying that recent tax collections data show that municipal governments are in good shape. State and local tax collections for property, individual income and sales tax are better than expected. In addition, there is more than $400 billion in reserve funds across municipal government balance sheets. That's four times higher than pre-pandemic levels. So the credit quality of municipals is in a lot better shape than it's been in a long time. Given the run-up in equities, munis could be a good opportunity to diversify while interest rates remain high. Opportunity to diversify while interest rates remain high. Another benefit to munis right now is that, unlike other fixed income investments, the muni bond curve has an upward slope, so it may make sense to extend the duration if you're comfortable with longer-term bonds.
Keith Lanton:That's everything I've got.
Alan Eppers:Thank you for listening to Mr Keith Lanton. This podcast is available on most platforms platforms including Apple Podcasts, Spotify and Pandora. For more information, please visit our website at www. heraldlantern. com.
Sophie Cohen:Opinions expressed herein are subject to change and not necessarily the opinion of the firm. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, the information presented herein. Thank you.