Enlightenment - A Herold & Lantern Investments Podcast
Enlightenment - A Herold & Lantern Investments Podcast
Navigating 2024: AI Booms, Federal Reserve Moves, and Strategic Financial Insights with Keith Lanton
December 30, 2024 | Season 6, Episode 45
Our discussion reflects on the lessons learned from the financial markets in 2024, focusing on trends in interest rates, political implications, and goal-setting strategies for 2025. Emphasizing the importance of systems over mere goal-setting, we invite listeners to rethink their financial approaches as we transition into the new year.
• Reflection on key financial trends and events in 2024
• Analysis of the U.S. elections and their economic implications
• Discussion of momentum investing and market resilience
• Exploration of the relationship between currency strength and market performance
• Emphasis on systems versus goals in achieving sustainable success
• Insights and strategies for adapting to the upcoming financial year
Listen to our episode for vital insights you won't want to miss!
** For informational and educational purposes only, not intended as investment advice. Views and opinions are subject to change without notice.
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And now introducing Mr Keith Lanton.
Keith Lanton:Good morning. Today is Monday, december 30th, last opportunity to reassess the financial markets this year. We've got two days left, two full trading days in 2024. Reminder that New Year's Eve is a full trading day, giving everyone the last opportunity to reassess their portfolios. Do some year-end adjustments if necessary. Again, be very mindful of your gains and losses and if you can do anything to mitigate gains, you still have two days left to do that.
Keith Lanton:Let's talk. We're going to talk about 2024 and what this year has looked like from both a fixed income as well as a equity mindset. Then we're going to talk about moving into 2025, always thinking about what our goals are and how we should go about thinking about goals. Try and give us a little bit of a novel approach, with some thinking from James Clear and his Atomic Habits, as we think about how we want to approach 2025, not from a financial mindset, but just from an overall mindset. Then we'll talk about some of the big events of 2024 so we can look back, not so we can just reminisce about what took place, but what we can learn from 2024 that will help us be more successful, not just in 2025, but thereafter. We'll go through the morning news relatively quiet as we approach New Year's Eve still some folks out on holiday and then we'll go through Barron's talk about the year that we've had so far. Santa Claus hasn't really shown up. In December We'll talk a little bit about this and we'll talk about what may be some opportunities left in the picked over AI sector, specifically thinking there about utilities, and then we'll just touch on the Federal Open Market Committee we're going to have a change in some of the voting governors and what that might mean for the policy of interest rates going forward. So let's just take a look at the financial markets 2024.
Keith Lanton:And if we look back to this time last year, stock market in 2023 had blown past even the most optimistic targets and if you were reading what Wall Street's forecasters were saying, they would say that the markets couldn't keep up their dizzying pace in 2024. So, going into 2024, strategists at Bank of America, deutsche Bank, goldman Sachs and other big firms sent out their calls for 2024, and a consensus took shape After surging more than 20%. This is again going back to 2023, heading into 2024, markets in 2023 up over 20% because artificial intelligence breakthroughs that's continued unleashed a tech boom and the economy kept defying the doomsayers and therefore, the experts were saying that 2025 would likely be a year of consolidation. No one was calling for a significant doom and gloom, but we were looking at single digits. If you may remember what the experts were saying, heading into this year, the Federal Reserve was going to be moving into reducing interest rates, which did in fact happen, and therefore treasuries and bonds were very ripe to be giving equities a run for their money. We were going to see a reallocation of lots of funds into fixed income and we were going to see lower interest rates. What we did see was lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve on the short end of the yield curve, but on the longer end of the yield curve, even just five years out and up, we saw higher interest rates and we see the fixed income markets in 2024 struggling once again to stay positive.
Keith Lanton:So, heading into 2024, if you can remember, back to January of 24, as we approach January of 25, the S&P in January of 24 had already surpassed the average year-end target that most strategists had had for the entire year, and the S&P went on to hit one record high after another and is now, despite the fact that we have futures this morning, lower, heading to for a gain of still well north of 20%. Going into today we were over 25%, but we are seeing some downside pressure, at least at the opening this morning, and if this trend holds we will see markets with their strongest back-to-back annual runs, as measured by the S&P 500, since the bubble years of the late 1990s. Now trends can go on longer and further than anyone could imagine. But when we look back to just Friday of this last past week so just one trading day away a normally sleepy year-end session, saw the S&P fall as much as 1.7% on Friday with no obvious news. And that bears to mind that we've had lots of momentum and momentum investing as we've approached the end of 2024. And it has handsomely rewarded those who have kept doubling down on momentum, kept doubling down on momentum. But when you do have a rally that is arguably fueled by momentum, blow up like last Friday's could become more common.
Keith Lanton:Another factor perhaps influencing the markets this year has been the strength of the dollar. Strength of the dollar is important because if our currency is appreciating well, then foreigners feel a lot better about investing in our markets, because not only do they get the appreciation in our markets but they also get the appreciation of the currency and 2025 saw the dollar spot index rise more than 7 percent, best performance since 2015. All currencies in the developed world every single one so far has weakened against the greenback as other central banks that support their local economies Our interest rates remaining higher for longer, as evidenced by recent commentary from the Federal Reserve. So it's very possible, if not likely, that some of the momentum we've been seeing here in the US is attributable to this dollar strength. It kind of feeds on itself and foreign investors participating here in the US. We'll talk a little bit about Barron's article. We talked to Felix Zuloff and we'll talk about this impact of a stronger dollar, particularly his view on dollar, yen, the Japanese currency.
Keith Lanton:All right, let's talk about some factors that took place in 2024. Then we'll talk about moving forward, changing the mindset to 2025 and our goals. Let's take a look back at 2024. What we had take place, of course, was the election in November and America, like a lot of the rest of the world, took a step to the right and some interesting statistics and this is from an article in the New York Times, a guest essay from Stephen Ratner, and he talked about some of the charts that he put together that will help folks potentially understand 2024. And one of those factors was America stepping right.
Keith Lanton:And let's take a look at the election and take a look at the differences in voting patterns between 2020 and 2024. And this is in support for now, president-elect Donald Trump. Where did he see the most change in his voting pattern? And that might give us some insights into the mindset of the American public and that might help us also think about investing. 18 to 29-year-olds Donald Trump saw a 7% pickup in that category and he also saw a big pickup in 45 to 64-year-olds. 30 to 44-year-olds he just saw a 1% gain. Those over 65, he actually had a 2% decline. When it came to black men, there was lots of talk that there was lots of extra support for Donald Trump, but he did see only a 2% increase in votes from black men and he actually saw a 2% decrease from black women. So the African-American vote was not a big change for Donald Trump in terms of the investment, but when it came to Latinos, we see a huge shift towards Donald Trump 18% increase in Latino men, 9% increase in Latino women and when it came to the white vote, interestingly President-elect Trump had a 1% decline in white men, which is typically viewed as his base, and a 2% decline in white women.
Keith Lanton:Lots of talk about college degrees and what effect that had on how people voted. Folks with no college degree President-elect Trump had a 6% increase. College graduates he had a 1% decrease. Um, college graduates he had a 1% decrease. Um, he did win the popular vote, this time by 1.5%, uh, which, uh, which is, uh, historically, uh, not a huge margin, but by many measures his victory was decisive and broad. He carried every state considered to be in play, including the Democrats, traditional blue wall of Wisconsin, michigan and Pennsylvania. Now, the campaign Candidate Harris significantly outspent Donald Trump in spending over $2.5 billion versus Trump's about $2 billion and, interestingly, the 2024 campaign was the second most expensive in terms of the amount of money spent on the election, both congressional and presidential campaigns, whereas 2020 saw about $3 billion more being spent on the campaign in 2024.
Keith Lanton:One thing that also took place in 2024 is that manufacturing investments surged. This attributed largely to the Inflation Reduction Act that was passed about two years ago. Taking a look at the amount of money spent on manufacturing construction spending In the US, it was, you know, for the last decade or so, somewhere in the $7 to $8 billion range. 2024 saw that number all the way up at the $22 billion range. So we are investing more in manufacturing a lot of that attributable to the Inflation Reduction Act. Controversial topic the border and border crossings Border crossings in 2024 wound up about similar to where they were in 2020. But in between there was quite a surge that the Biden administration finally addressed in 2024. And we are now seeing the numbers in 2024 similar to 2020. But there was a significant increase 2021, 22 and 23.
Keith Lanton:In particular, the election and the move right in the US and the desire for change was not just a US phenomena. In fact, the US was fairly muted relative to other countries in terms of the number of voters who changed their minds or voted differently than in the past. When you look at the change in incumbent party voting share In the election in Indonesia, there was more than a 30% change in votes to move away from the incumbent party. In Great Britain that number was about 20% this year. In South Africa it was north of 15%. In Japan it was almost 10%. In France it was north of 6%. In the US it was closer to 4% or 5%, where we saw a change for the incumbents moving away from the incumbents. Two countries where we saw a shift toward the incumbent was Mexico and South Korea, and, of course, we see currently in South Korea a great deal going on post-election. There.
Keith Lanton:Global temperatures in 2024 remain high. There, global temperatures in 2024 remain high. The good news is that, while global temperatures started out the year in 2024 at a record, right now we are slightly below the average temperature in 2023, which set a record, but nevertheless, if you go back since 1850, we are still trending north of almost one and a quarter degrees Celsius above average even in 2024. But we are at least slightly better at the moment than 2023. The AI boom continuing.
Keith Lanton:Some interesting statistics the percentage of individuals in the US using AI or generative AI, I should say, is about 40 percent. Ai or generative AI, I should say, is about 40%. Interestingly, the number of people that are using the Internet in the US is currently about 90% and those who are using personal computers about 80%. So we are seeing a significant pickup, though, in the use of AI. Pick up, though, in the use of AI.
Keith Lanton:And one hopefully statistic that will continue trending downward is deaths from armed conflict throughout the world. 2024 saw the second consecutive decline in number of fatalities from armed conflict In the 21st century. That number peaked in 2022 with the war in Ukraine seeing a tremendous amount of deaths both on the Ukrainian and the Russian side. Of course, we still continue to see lots of fatalities and we also see fatalities, of course, in the Middle East with the conflict between Israel, palestinians, lebanon, houthis, iran but nevertheless, lots of the deaths taking place in 2024, certainly in those two spots the Middle East and the Ukraine and other countries' conflicts that has positively declined, other countries' conflicts that has positively declined, hopefully 2025, we'll see a decline not just in the Middle East and in Ukraine, but throughout the world. So we've got a two-year trend where we're seeing fewer deaths and hopefully we will turn that into a three-year trend.
Keith Lanton:All right, let's talk about goals and talk about how we want to think about 2025. And we'll talk about James Clear and some different ways about thinking about setting goals. And he says forget about setting goals, focus on this instead. Prevailing wisdom claims that the best way to achieve what we want in life getting into better shape, building a successful business, relaxing more, worrying less, spending more time with friends is to set specific, actionable goals. But when you think about it, results have very little to do with goals and a lot more to do with the systems that you follow, and we'll talk a little bit about that. Not saying that setting goals is a bad thing, but the success is not necessarily about setting the goals. It's about the systems that you put in place to achieve that goal. So if you're a coach, you might want to win a championship and your system is the way you recruit players, the way you manage your assistant coaches, the way you conduct practice. Or if you're a business person, an entrepreneur, your goal might be to build a multimillion-dollar business, but your system is how you test product ideas, how you hire employees, how you run your marketing campaign. So again, goals certainly have a role. Are they useless? Of course not. Goals are good for setting direction, but systems are best for making progress.
Keith Lanton:A handful of problems arise when you spend too much time thinking about your goals and not enough time about designing your systems. And if you think about it, winners and losers both have the same goal. When they start out right, the goal is to achieve success. Every Olympian wants to win a gold medal, every candidate wants to get the job, and if successful and unsuccessful people share the same goals, then the goal cannot be what differentiates the winners from the losers. And we often think to ourselves when we see a winner standing on the podium and we hear them talk about well, their goal was to win an Olympic medal we intuitively and instinctively think to ourselves well, that's what we want to do, we want to set a goal, just like that man or woman sitting up on the podium. But we forget that the folks who aren't sitting on the podium had that same goal and what we are seeing is winner's bias. We are taking a look at that person on the podium, hearing what they have to say and drawing a broad conclusion that setting the goal was the ticket to success. But it's only when these folks implement a system of continuous small achievements that they achieve an outcome that's superior to the other folks up on that stage and putting it into our own lives and something we can think about.
Keith Lanton:If you have a messy room and you set a goal to clean it and then you summon the energy to clean that room up and now you've got the clean room, you'll only have that clean room briefly, because if you maintain the same sloppy, pack rat habits that led to a messy room in the first place. You will soon be looking in another pile of clutter and you will now need a new burst of motivation. You're chasing the same outcome because you never changed the system behind it. You treated a symptom, you didn't treat the cause. When you solve problems at the results level, you solve them temporarily. Fix the inputs and the outputs will fix themselves.
Keith Lanton:Now, just setting goals perhaps will restrict your happiness. The assumption behind any goal is once I reach my goal, then I'll be happy. The problem with a goals-first mentality is that you're continually putting happiness off until the next milestone. But when you fall in love with the process rather than the product, you don't have to wait to give yourself permission to be happy. You can be satisfied any time. Your system exists is running. A goal-oriented mindset creates a yo-yo effect. So many runners work hard, for example, let's say, to run a half marathon, but as soon as they cross the finish line, they stop training. The race is no longer there to motivate them.
Keith Lanton:This could be also said about perhaps setting that diet goal going into 2025. I want to lose 15 pounds in 2025. You go all out. You perhaps go on that carb diet, whatever it is that you do, come March you lose 15 pounds. You've achieved the goal. You say. I'm just going to go off course just a little bit. Achieve that goal to keep in place that lifestyle, because it was so difficult and perhaps you didn't put in the system that made it sustainable. So when all your hard work is focused on a particular goal, what is left to push you forward after you achieve it? That is why many people find themselves reverting to old habits after accomplishing a goal. Again, none of this to say that goals are useless. But James Clear would say that goals are good for planning your progress and systems are good for actually making progress. Having a system is what matters. Committing to the process is what makes the difference All right.
Keith Lanton:So let's back all the way up and take a look at what's going on this morning. We are seeing futures deteriorate this morning without any dramatic catalyst. We are seeing Dow futures now down over 400 points, s&p futures down 70, nasdaq futures down almost 300 points and we are seeing somewhat of a move into bonds, a flight to safety, perhaps 10-year yield down almost six basis points to a 456. Today's economic lineup features the December Chicago PMI at 945 and the November, pending home sales at 10 am. So perhaps we are seeing some profit-taking, some repositioning. It's always hard to say but, as we talked about earlier, when you've got momentum investing, you never know when the wind will shift. Who knows if this is a shift or just a temporary change. Time will tell. But nevertheless, on a lighter volume day, we are seeing at least weakness at the outset. We'll see if it persists throughout the trading session.
Keith Lanton:Some news this morning NVIDIA stock down about two points this morning. They announced that they want to enter the robotics industry to drive growth. Google CEO saying that new artificial intelligence features are coming in 2025. Boeing down about five points. Jeju Air Flight veered off the runway and crashed in South Korea. 179 people are dead. That plane was a Boeing 737-800. South Korea is going to inspect all Boeing aircraft following the crash. We might be jumping to conclusions. This may be attributable to other factors other than the aircraft, but the investigation will give us some more insights. But some folks not wanting to wait and hedging their bets, selling some Boeing this morning. At&t and Verizon just down modestly this morning reports that their networks are now clear after they were impacted by a China-supported salt typhoon hacking operation.
Keith Lanton:Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region mostly lower on what was the last full trading day of the year in Japan and in South Korea. The Japanese market was down about 1%. The Chinese market's relatively flat. South Korea, where that air crash took place, down two-tenths of 1%. Most European indices are trading tentatively amid thin conditions ahead of the New Year's holiday in Europe.
Keith Lanton:Taking a look at the commodities, we are seeing relative stability relatively flat. Natural gas up 13 cents. That's the biggest mover. Gold's up about 40 cents. Copper relatively flat. Silver also relatively flat this morning.
Keith Lanton:Some news over the weekend Former President Jimmy Carter passed away at age 100. President Biden declared January 9th as a national day of mourning. No official announcement, but the stocks will likely be closed that day. Treasury Secretary Yellen says the debt ceiling will be reached in mid-January and analysts expect the Treasury will exhaust extraordinary measures come July or August. According to Bloomberg, president-elect Trump urged the Supreme Court to pause its ban on TikTok, which goes into effect on January 19th. The Supreme Court will hear the case on January 10th. President-elect Trump in an interview says he supports H-1B visas for highly skilled immigrant workers. According to the New York Post, this is a source of controversy within the MAGA movement of the Republican Party, elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy out the very supportive of H-1B visas for highly skilled workers, especially in the tech field, and President Trump now saying that he supports that as well. And some news in China one of the governors there at the People's Bank of China saying that he sees more interest rates cuts coming in that country.
Keith Lanton:What do we got going on this week? Well, I mentioned supply management the ISM Institute of Supply Management, releasing Chicago business for December, looking for that to come in 42.8. That would be up 2.6 points from last month. Also today, a National Association of Realtors releasing pending home sales, looking for this to increase by almost 8% over November's depressed levels. Keep in mind that this index had a record low this summer, as high mortgage rates and the lock-in effect, or the disincentive for existing homeowners to sell because their current mortgage rates are much lower than current rates, continue to weigh on housing activity.
Keith Lanton:Wednesday, new Year's Day, stock and bond markets closed. Keep in mind, again, new Year's Eve, full trading day in the US. Friday, we get the ISM releasing Purchasing Manager's Index for December, looking for that to be roughly in line with November at 48.3. All right, so we're seeing weakness in equity markets. This morning let's turn to Barron's and let's see what happens when December closes out the year, not on a bang, but more with a whimper, like at least we're seeing so far this year. So let's take a look at what took place last week. We are seeing that after Friday we are seeing the markets, which saw a drop of 1.1%. S&p 500 now, for the month of December, is down 1% for the month and that's certainly not the Santa Claus rally that many were expecting.
Keith Lanton:Typically, december tends to be one of the best months of the year for the S&P 500, with an average gain of over 1%. Hopes were high because we had a rally of 5.7% in November. Hopes were high because we had a rally of 5.7% in November. Investors are still sitting on more than a 25% gain for the year, although we may be sub-25 if today's sell-off continues, and it is arguable that some of the frenzied post-election bump pulled forward some of December's gains. Nevertheless, so far, december is looking atypical.
Keith Lanton:If you go back to 1950, a December decline is a rarity. The S&P 500 was positive in December 56 times over the last 75 years, so more than two-thirds of the time. However, during the 19 years when December was a downer, like so far it is this year. It was followed by January losses 10 out of those 19 times. It was followed by January losses 10 out of those 19 times. And 5&P 500 is actually 503 because it contains some multiple stock classes. So a couple of companies have two shares of the stock in the S&P 500. So if you look at all 503 to be exact, 64 of those stocks are up this month and 439 are down. It's very possible that breadth could even get uglier after today. But even with the loss, if you took last week off for holiday, last week you didn't miss much, even with the down day on Friday. In fact, you could have celebrated Christmas all of December and found the S&P not far off from where you left it, at least through Friday. That's, unless you were a tech investor, because tech has still had a Magnificent Seven strong December and that's probably a good way to sum up. 2024 is it was a great year for the Magnificent Seven and more of a ho-hum year for the rest of the S&P 500.
Keith Lanton:I mentioned Felix Zulauf earlier in his thoughts on financial markets. He is an investor who runs a Swiss institutional consulting firm. He's been a Barron's Roundtable member for a long, long time and he sees 2025 starting out strong. He thinks the markets will peak in 2025, and then he thinks things could get ugly. And what does he think could be a driver of some of that poorer performance later in 2025?
Keith Lanton:And he thinks that the currency market and that's why I bring this back to the dollar could be a factor, particularly an upward revision of the yen, he says would have an important impact on financial markets beyond Japan. He points to a tight correlation between the yen dollar exchange rate and the Nasdaq 100, with a weaker Japanese currency coinciding with a rise in big technology stocks. And he says the link is because of the use of borrowing of yen at ultra low interest rates in order to finance purchases of high return assets, such as the magnificent seven stocks that drive the QQQ Invesco trust. So borrowing the yen effectively means a short position in the Japanese currency, which has lost about a quarter of its value relative to the dollar in the past three years. So if you're engaging in this trade, both legs have worked extremely well. Being short the yen and long QQQ has been a tremendous winner on both sides. The yen bottomed out at 162 to the dollar earlier this year then rallied to 140 on expectations of tighter monetary policy in Japan and easier Fed policies. But since then Fed policy perhaps not being as dovish as expected and the yen has weakened and the dollar has rebounded to 157.
Keith Lanton:Zulov says the yen's long-term trend was broken and there's a long way to purchasing power parity, which he says is at around 88. To purchasing power parity, which he says is at around 88. In other words, he thinks the yen could appreciate significantly and therefore this trade could unwind and that potentially could not only be ugly for some investors in Japan who are long dollar and short yen, but also for investors here in the United States, because the trade is to then buy the US technology stocks and if this trade stops not working well, then you've got to unwind it and that means that you're going to be selling US technology stocks. And he says that a similar trend happened in 1998 when the prevailing sentiment was widely bullish on the dollar. Back then he was short the dollar, he says, and he was long the yen. And he says if in fact there is a similar move to 1998, when the yen appreciated significantly, that would have negative repercussions for the market and he then thinks that that would have the knock-on effect of having not only negative repercussions for the market but have negative repercussions on the US economy. And he's saying right now, conventional wisdom is that equities are driven by the economy. But he says that relationship has been reversed and what he means by that is that the higher stock market is driving a better economy. And he says a reversal in the stock market would therefore have negative repercussions for the economy. He says I spend a lot of time in the United States, in the state of Florida, and I know many people there who are wealthy and have strong personal balance sheets.
Keith Lanton:And he says I believe that I and I can tell you that if the market goes down 20 percent, these wealthy folks, he believes, will spend less and cut back. He says he's seen that in the past and he expects it to hold in the future and he thinks that their spending is more meaningful for the economy than the folks who have a lot less assets and their spending is not as meaningful and therefore that pullback in spending will have significant effects on the economy. With that I am going to wrap it up, because it is already a little past 9 am this morning. I'll pick up some of the other stories I was going to share with you in 2025, and I am going to turn it over to Brad to give us his thoughts and insights at the end of 2024 and what he thinks heading into 2025. Good morning, brad.
Brad Harris:Good morning Keith. Good Morning everyone. I hope everyone had a nice weekend and are enjoying the holiday season. To say that the year in bonds has been volatile is a gross understatement. It isn't often that the Fed cuts short rates 100 base points and the 10-year yield that the 10-year rises 100 base points during that same period. That's why I've said on this that if the Fed is cutting rates, it is not necessarily going to mean that the entire yield curve will see lower rates or higher prices as well, which a lot of people have the misconception that it will.
Brad Harris:There are many external factors that control these longer rates, including not similar to equities. At some points, momentum. Over the year, I've given my opinion. I think treasuries are short-term overbought or oversold. I'm not always right, but within a percentage. Even with all the political economic headlines for 2025, I am now in the old oversold camp. I have a feeling that at the turn of the year, the 10-year should stabilize around this 4.6% to 4.7% level. I know that I said the Fed's move has nothing to do with the long run of the curve, but just for the heck of it, from where the 10 years started when the Fed started cutting, take into account 100 basis points of cuts, you would assume that the 10-year would have been around 4.25% right now. In my opinion, if you take into account even the potential of the new administration's economic policy, maybe one could even say 4.5% would be the fair value for the 10-year. Either way, we do seem short-term oversold and 4.25% is not an unreasonable thought, considering we got as low as 3.6% on the 10-year, which made no sense at all even at that time.
Brad Harris:In municipals, as always this time of year, the best opportunities for those who are flexible and not dependent on current income are the lower 2% and 3% coupon bonds going out five years and longer. When you get years in equities like the ones we've been having, investors will throw these bonds away, regardless of price, because loss is invaluable if you have gains to offset. We should continue to look at these opportunities in 2025 and not just at year-end. As a guesstimate, I would say if you owned a 15-year 4% bond with a 10-year call, you would be down around 3% to 5% from the high point of the bond market. However, if you owned a 15-year 3% bond, you may be down 8% to 10% off the high. If the market turns, I suspect that the reverse happens. So the appreciation opportunity for these 3% bonds is much better than the 4% bonds. If you're concerned about higher rates, stay with the higher coupon.
Brad Harris:This trade idea is not for everyone. I just want to thank everyone who worked with me over the year. Talk about the market life. Everything Shared, our ups and downs. I feel fortunate to be part of this family. Last I know, the stock market closes at regular time tomorrow. The bond market does close at 2. I hope everyone has a healthy, happy new year, great 2025, and I'll turn it back to Keith Thanks.
Keith Lanton:Thank you, brad, that's everything I've got.
Alan Eppers:Thank you for listening to Mr Keith Lanton. This podcast is available on most platforms, including Apple Podcasts, Spotify and Pandora. For more information, please visit our website at www. heraldlantern. com. Thank you.