Enlightenment - A Herold & Lantern Investments Podcast
Enlightenment - A Herold & Lantern Investments Podcast
Too Much Noise, Too Little Change: A Mid-Year Market Review
June 30, 2025 | Season 7 | Episode 25
The financial landscape of 2025 has been a study in contrasts—headlines scream chaos while markets whisper stability. As we close the first half of the year, this paradox becomes our focal point.
Despite a backdrop of Middle East conflicts, Russia-Ukraine escalations, nuclear tensions between India and Pakistan, and significant domestic policy shifts including President Trump's inauguration, major US equity indices have remained surprisingly steady. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained roughly 5%, with mid-caps and small-caps showing modest declines. The Federal Reserve has maintained its benchmark rate at 4.25-4.5%, and oil prices have barely budged.
Yet beneath this apparent calm, tectonic shifts are occurring. The US dollar has weakened by 10%, while gold and silver have surged over 23%. Bitcoin has gained 14%. These movements tell a story that headline numbers miss—growing questions about US exceptionalism and fiscal health, particularly as the "Big Beautiful Bill" makes its way through Congress with potential to add $3 trillion to the deficit over the next decade.
This evolving landscape creates strategic opportunities across asset classes. Municipal bonds now offer compelling yields with tax-equivalent returns approaching 9% for high-income earners in states like California and New York. The weakening dollar provides unexpected tailwinds for US multinationals like Apple, which derives 64% of its revenue from overseas markets—a complete reversal after years of currency headwinds.
For individuals planning retirement, particularly those considering Medicaid strategies for long-term care, the landscape may be changing dramatically. The pending legislation could shift state responsibilities, potentially reducing care quality and necessitating reconsideration of private insurance options.
As we navigate the second half of 2025, the key to success may lie in distinguishing between market noise and meaningful signals. The daily headlines will continue to suggest volatility, but the real story may be found in the subtler shifts of currency markets, yield curves, and legislative developments.
** For informational and educational purposes only, not intended as investment advice. Views and opinions are subject to change without notice.
For full disclosures, ADVs, and CRS Forms, please visit https://heroldlantern.com/disclosure **
To learn about becoming a Herold & Lantern Investments valued client, please visit https://heroldlantern.com/wealth-advisory-contact-form
Follow and Like Us on Youtube, Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn | @HeroldLantern
And now introducing Mr Keith Lanton.
Keith Lanton:Good morning. Hope everyone had a fantastic weekend. This is July 4th week, so financial markets will be closed on Friday, july 4th. Bond market's going to close a little early, 2 o'clock on Thursday, on July 3rd. So this week here may be a little quieter, as some folks head out of town and take some time off in the summer, but there is tons going on, not just here in the United States but throughout the world. Things are moving at a very rapid pace, so there's really no rest here for those who are focused on financial markets and always thinking about how they should be investing their funds and what their portfolio should look like.
Keith Lanton:And, as we've talked about in the past, the single most important aspect of investing is not necessarily the specific securities you own, but what is your asset allocation? What is the appropriate investment allocation to US equities, the components of those US equities, fixed income investments, bonds. What should be allocated internationally, whether it's developed markets, international markets, foreign currencies, real estate, alternative assets, whether it's private equity, private debt, cryptocurrencies and, of course, what should be the allocation within all of that to cash and what your near-term needs are. So with that backdrop, you're going to take a look. Here we are last day of the first half of 2025. And as we look back on the year, there has been so much going on during the year and you could argue that there has been so much noise to confuse us, so much information overload. If you're out there searching on different websites whether you're looking at CNBC or Fox Business or Fox News or CNN, new York Times, wall Street Journal the sources of information whether you're getting your news from social media, from Instagram, from Facebook, from TikTok, whatever it is that you're gathering this information from, it is just a fire hose of information and it feels like that the world is moving at such a super rapid clip.
Keith Lanton:But here we are, six months into the year, and let's take a look at what's gone on this year to take our attention and certainly the things that are influencing the world. We've had the situation in the Middle East between Israel and the Palestinians in Gaza. We've had Israel also fighting another front with Hezbollah, both in Lebanon as well as with the Houthis in Yemen. Of course, we've had all the Middle East activity, with Israel also taking on Iran and, of course, the US recently bombing Iran Before that, something that was getting lots of concern from the financial markets, and it's almost faded so far into the backdrop. We've almost forgot it's happened, and that's the skirmish between India and Pakistan.
Keith Lanton:Two nuclear powers, china and Taiwan, always on our minds as to what Chinese intentions are with respect to Taiwan and how the US should be positioning towards China and Taiwan. Of course, russia and Ukraine. What's the prospects of peace? President Trump came into office, said he could resolve that within one day and still lots of carnage taking place. Last night reports that the biggest Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities since the start of the conflict in 2022.
Keith Lanton:Tariffs dominating the news US, china, us Europe, us, mexico and Canada. We had the US bond rating downgrade by Moody's, the last remaining AAA credit rating from the United States First half of this year gone, now rated AA1. We have the big beautiful bill making its way through the Senate. After the House had passed one version, now we have a new version in the Senate. This big beautiful bill is adding to worries about the US deficit. The House version purportedly this is from the Congressional Budget Office will increase the deficit $2.8 trillion over 10 years. The Senate version, about $3.4 trillion over 10 years. Those two bills, in order to pass, need to be reconciled, but either way, let's call it $3 trillion, if something like what's being proposed out there is going to happen, being added to the deficit. This is weighing on concerns about the US, especially among foreign investors. Can we pay back our debts if we are not, at the moment, paying lots of attention to paring it down? In fact, we're adding to it. So what does that mean? Going forward? We have certainly had lots of immigration policy changes since President Trump was elected. Of course, one of the biggest factors of 2025 was the inauguration of President Trump. We've had several Supreme Court decisions that many consider significant, and we have seen volatility in the first half of the year significantly elevated from what we've been accustomed to here in US markets over the past few years.
Keith Lanton:And despite all of that, despite all of those things that have taken place in 2025, if you had gone to bed December 31st 2024, woke up today, june 30th 2025, what has really changed in terms of the financial markets? What is it that you would say is the big paradigm shift so far? The past six months, and I would argue well, it's not the movement of the major US equity indices the S&P 500 has increased about 4.96%. Nasdaq's up 4.99%. If you're looking at mid-cap stocks, they're down less than 1%. The Russell 2000's down about 3%. For those who follow the Dow, it's up about 3% year-to-date. So equity markets if you went to sleep in the last year, woke up today, six months later, a little bit of gains, not much going on.
Keith Lanton:If you were following interest rates, federal Reserve, federal Reserve rate was 4.25% to 4.5% on the Fed funds rate. Fed funds rate still 4.25% to 4.5%. If you're looking at oil, brent crude year-to-date is down 0.11%, barely changed. Interestingly. West Texas Intermediate is down more significantly. That's US oil.
Keith Lanton:But let's take a look at the things that have made significant moves here in 2025. And that would be the dollar index, which is down about 10%, gold and silver up over 23% and Bitcoin is up about 14% year to date. And if we were to take a look at the bond market, we would see that the yields on bonds on the short end of the curve are a little bit lower. The three-month bond has gone from $4.39 to $4.29. The six-month basically unchanged. No change in the six-month of about one basis point. The 10-year Treasury yield has gone from $4.58 to $4.28. So we've seen a nice drop. This morning it it's at 425. But the 30-year has gone from a 478 to a 484. So let's take a look at all the pieces of information and see what has changed over the past six months. Well, the main changes are that there has been concern If you look at the data and say, what does this data mean?
Keith Lanton:There is concern that US exceptionalism perhaps not falling off a cliff. We're not at some sort of dramatic point where things have really turned, but there seems to be some questioning about US exceptionalism and therefore the dollar has declined 10%. Therefore, we've seen gold and silver, but gold in particular, rise over 20%. We've seen Bitcoin continue to go up and, interestingly, we've seen the 30-year treasury increase in yield, while the 10-year treasury has declined and the short-term interest rates have declined very modestly, indicating that there is some concern, when you look at the 30-year Treasury, that, if you go out far enough, that investors are a little bit more nervous than they were before about owning long-term US debt. They are diversifying outside of dollars and that is really the story.
Keith Lanton:If you close your eyes, december 31st woke up June 30, the world that those investments that are alternatives to the US being as dominant as it was, not that the US is going to suddenly become less, not a significant force in the world. That's not what's being priced in at this moment, but what is being priced in is perhaps should think about other markets international markets, other debt, other investments other than the dollar. That's what the first six months of this year looks like. It's so far the story that has played out, despite all the other factors going on in the world. So, with the thought process being, that's where the first six months has been we're going to now, with fixed income investments and bonds being perhaps a place to rethink about adding allocation, and we'll talk a little bit about that. And we'll also talk about one of the factors that we just talked about taking place here in 2025, which is the weakening dollar and what that may mean for companies, individual companies and corporate earnings. Something we have not heard much about is what happens when the dollar is weaker, as it's been for the first six months of this year. What does that do in terms of individual companies that operate overseas? And we'll talk a little bit about that. And then we'll also talk about, if some of the changes that are being proposed by the House version and the Senate version of the Big Beautiful Bill go forward, what that may mean for each of us individually, who may have different plans of what our long-term care may look like as we age, and whether or not this Big Beautiful Bill may influence our thought process with how we plan for that.
Keith Lanton:So the stock market last week, s&p was up 3.6% Once again. It's now at an all-time high. Nasdaq is also at an all-time high. At the same time, the volatility index has tumbled back to the mid-teens. That's a level that reflects fewer signs of worry, let alone panic.
Keith Lanton:Investors are betting that the US economy will remain resilient. They're banking on strong earnings growth when companies report in July. They're thinking about interest rate cuts that may be forthcoming from the Federal Reserve and at least being priced in at the moment is thoughts of de-escalation, of tough talk from President Trump on tariffs before his January July 9th deadline for new trade deals. But with visions of perfect markets circulating within the minds of investors, they need to keep in mind what the valuations are. They're starting to arguably look frothy once again. Geopolitical concerns remain we talked about those just a few minutes ago and the risk of tariffs not getting resolved as much as we'd like or the way that the market would like is a real possibility.
Keith Lanton:Lizanne Saunders, chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab said the risk again is that there is too much complacency and an overbought market. She says that she worries that, while market sentiment has improved, big businesses remain far more cautious than they could impact profits over the course of 2025. She says full-year 2025 estimates for the S&P have barely budged since April and the earnings outlook remains murky. Other strategists suggest the playbook going forward may be to play a little bit more defense, to think about the value relative to growth. Some are suggesting taking a look at higher-yielding dividend stocks, as well as looking internationally, outside the United States, for both dividend-paying stocks and potential growth opportunities.
Keith Lanton:Now I mentioned one of the other factors that the market is keying on is the potential for interest rate cuts going forward, and we are getting some divergent messages from different Fed governors. Fed Chair Powell has been able to maintain a united front on interest rates, with most Fed governors being on the same page, as he has been for quite some time, but we're starting to see a couple of governors some of the ones that President Trump has spoken favorably about that he's nominated for different positions. Some of those governors are starting to break from the pack. Barron's is suggesting this may be what President Trump would appreciate. So the unity that is publicly displayed may not have always been what was taking place behind closed doors, but now we're seeing what we're seeing publicly may be more of a reflection to some of the discussions that may have taken place behind closed doors.
Keith Lanton:A week ago, chairman Powell said that the Fed was in no hurry to cut rates, and two of his fellow voting members recently floated the possibility of doing that as soon as July. This was a factor that, when it was announced, caused a little bit of jitters in the equity markets but contributed to some further dollar weakness and contributed to some weakness on the Treasury market, especially on the longer-term Treasuries. Barron's suggesting that it also handed President Trump something that he likes, and that is that President Trump has been hammering Chairman Powell, demanding deep interest rate cuts and accusing him of moving too slowly, and that perhaps his pressure campaign is changing some of the perceptions of the Federal Reserve. The Fed is starting to look not as unified, more divided, and Barron saying that Powell's unified front is cracking and that could affect confidence in the central bank's independence. Barron goes on to say the stakes are high. Central bank independence isn't just a bureaucratic talking point. It underpins the credibility of monetary policy, the stability of the dollar and the global role of US financial markets.
Keith Lanton:If investors believe the Fed is bending to White House pressure, confidence erodes. Volatility follows. Arguably that's something that took place in the early 70s when President Nixon was pressuring Fed Chair Burns to lower interest rates. At this time we also see a lot of disagreement at the Fed when you look at those summary projections Some call them the dot plots where the median forecast shows two interest rate cuts, but seven of the 12 governors so more than of the Fed voting members more than half have a view that the Fed shouldn't be cutting interest rates. So if the average is two, but seven out of 12 say zero, you can see that there is certainly a wide divergence of opinion. I would say differences of opinion are healthy, but nevertheless it's something that could also be used as a point of leverage by someone from the outside.
Keith Lanton:All right, well, this morning markets are on track for a higher opening, with S&P futures trading 25 points above fair value. Market looks to expand on Friday's gains, which saw the S&P 500 eclipsed and close at all-time highs. Washington Post is reporting the Senate is set to vote on the large reconciliation bill today, but there is still some inter-party disagreement on the bill, so immediate passage is not yet certain. Additionally, canada has rescinded the digital services tax in hopes of resuming trade negotiations with the US. This is something that precipitated President Trump from breaking off discussions with Canada, so we see them backtracking here. That's one of the reasons for some stronger markets today. Federal Reserve announced that all 22 banks these are the biggest banks here in the United States that were subject to stress tests passed. This could lead to a little bit more strength in the financial sector.
Keith Lanton:Today's economic data limited to a 9.45 release of the Chicago PMI for June. We're looking for that to come in 43.4 versus 40.5 last month. Treasury's seeing a slight upside in terms of price lowering. In terms of yield, the 10-year is down three basis points to 4.25%. Asian markets ended on a mostly higher note. Japan was up 0.8%. The Shanghai was up 0.6%. Interestingly, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong was down about 1%. Major European markets are trading a little changed.
Keith Lanton:Some other news the Senate voted 51-49 on a procedural motion to advance the large reconciliation bill to a full Senate vote tonight. The House is expected to vote Wednesday. The bill includes extension. This is the Senate bill of 2017. Tax cuts, spending cuts, specifically spending cuts to Medicaid and green energy spending probably the two largest cuts Areas will there'll be. Cuts bill also has some deregulation, some energy reform, some immigration reform, and it increases the debt ceiling by five trillion dollars.
Keith Lanton:Bloomberg reporting that President Trump has suggested keeping a 25% tariff on Japanese autos. President Trump said he could could, in quotes extend the tariff pause, but he would rather send letters to countries letting them know what the tariff rates are. He said he will appoint anybody but Powell to the Fed and he said he would consider removing Iran sanctions if they were peaceful. All of that according to Fox Business. President Trump says he believes there is a buyer for TikTok, but can't disclose the name. Trump says he believes there is a buyer for TikTok, but can't disclose the name. The Atlanta Fed President Bostic, who is a non-voter on CNBC, said he doesn't think tariffs will be a one-time price shift, and that's something different than what some of the other Fed governors have said, again illustrating the differences of opinion that are out there. Last week, we had Zohran Mamdani, the socialist candidate for mayor in New York City, who appears to have won the Democratic nomination, or certainly seems to be leading, told NBC News that he doesn't believe billionaires should exist.
Keith Lanton:Looking forward to the rest of this week, tomorrow the Institute for Supply Management releases its Manufacturing and Servicing Managers Index for June. Consensus estimate for manufacturing PMI is for that to come in at 48.8, up from 48.5. Services expected to come in 50.5, up from 49.9. Also on Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases what's called the JOLTS survey Job Openings and Labor Turnover. Looking for there to be 7.3 million jobs in openings in June. That would be down about 100,000 from May. Then on Thursday typically this is a Friday release but because of 4th of July, on Thursday we get the employment report, which will be very carefully watched, especially because of the various different opinions as we've discussed at the Federal Reserve. So the Bureau of Labor Statistics is releasing the jobs report for June. Economists forecast 110,000 increase in non-farm payrolls, that's after a gain of 139,000 in.
Sophie Cohen:May.
Keith Lanton:The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.3 from 4.2%. And again on Friday, july 4th, the equity and fixed income markets are closed. All right, so we talked a little bit about asset allocation, and Barron's is suggesting that investors may want to consider revisiting their allocation to fixed income. They say bonds now deserve a hard look because they are attractively priced. They acknowledge that over the past decade, bonds have barely mustered a 2 percent annual return, well behind the S&P 500's 13% return. But they say take a look now. Despite all the knocks against them, bonds are having a decent year. Through June, us bonds were about even with the S&P 500, generating returns of close to 4%, and they feel that the outlook for the rest of 2025 looks positive, with the Federal Reserve outlook for the rest of 2025 looks positive, with the Federal Reserve poised to cut short-term rates by as much as a half a percent and inflation currently running in the ballpark of 2%.
Keith Lanton:Barron's has long favored stocks for income because of their growth potential and generally low rates on bonds. But they say they are now making the case for bonds because the earnings yield of the S&P 500, which is the inverse of the price earnings ratio so it's the earnings to price ratio is now under 5%. So if you take the earnings number on the S&P 500, divide it by the price of the S&P 500, and you come out with less than 5%. Treasury is yielding around 4%, municipals, depending on the maturity, yielding between 3% and 5%, preferred stocks around 6%, mortgage securities are around 5.5% and junk bond yields in the neighborhood of 7% and cash is in the ballpark of 4%. If you go back to the start of the year, barron suggested, if you were looking for income, to look at high-paying dividend stocks, and while Barron still is positive on dividend-paying stocks, they have moved up to the number one income slot, the one that was towards the latter end at the beginning of the year and that is one that Brad has been talking significantly about, and that is municipal bonds. So those are ranked near the bottom of the returns in the first half of the year, but they offer a solid setup now in 2025. As Brad has mentioned in some of the writings that he's shared, that there has been a very heavy supply of new issues in the first half of the year, and particularly in June, but longer term in the first half of the year, and particularly in June, but longer term the outlook looks better. Single A and AA bonds now yield 4.5% to 4.75% if you're looking at long-term municipals, and that's just slightly below the 30-year treasury yield of 4.85% the tax equivalent yield on those munis depending on the state. But if you're looking at states like California or New York and you're a high income individual, your tax equivalent yields are 8%, even approaching 9%. Now there have been some concerns that the bill a big, beautiful bill making its way through Congress, could curb the muni exemption. Bank of America analysts wrote on Friday that they are optimistic that the exemption will survive the negotiations between the House and the Senate. Currently it's not in either version, but it is not a finalized bill.
Keith Lanton:Looking at the other top sectors for income number two Barron still suggesting dividend stocks as a solid way to generate income. Way to generate income Investors right now in companies that continue to grow their earnings and are not paying out too high of a dividend paying ratio. They suggest that there are many companies with dividend yields of around 2.5% that meet their criteria for companies that have the ability to keep raising their dividends and grow their earnings. And then, number three, in terms of income-seeking, barron suggests taking a look at energy pipelines, which do the boring work of transporting oil and natural gas from one place to another. But they also represent a backdoor play on the AI boom, since they provide the fuel that generates electricity to power data centers. Barron's, in this article, spoke positively on Kinder Morgan symbol, kmi, which yields around 4%.
Keith Lanton:Now I had mentioned the weaker dollar and we were talking about sort of the trends that were taking place. If you woke up six months after the end of last year, well, one of the major trends has been the weaker dollar. Now, while AI tariffs and capital expenditures have dominated the talk about earnings, especially talk in tech earnings in recent years. But Barron's saying and I think that they are being a little bit ahead of the curve here that get ready for a less buzzy topic to move the needle when Big Tech reports next month and that is foreign exchange, the makings of foreign exchange and the implications for foreign exchange already shown up in the financials of one company and that is Taiwan Semiconductor.
Keith Lanton:Barron says Taiwan Semi. They collect dollars from their customers. They're based in Taiwan but their biggest customers are companies like Apple and NVIDIA and they collect those dollars from those companies, but they report earnings in Taiwanese dollars and for many years. A favorable conversion rate helped the company, meaning that the dollars that they were taking in were worth more and more to them as their currency depreciated. Yet they were taking in dollars which were appreciating. So it collected a strong currency and reported its financial results every quarter in the weaker one. Taiwan semiconductor customers like Apple saw the other side of the trade. They collected a majority of sales in weaker currencies overseas. So Apple, if they were selling to customers in Taiwan, were receiving Taiwanese currency which was going down in value, and then had to convert them back into US dollars and therefore they were seeing less dollars as the currency was depreciating.
Keith Lanton:Now, largely thanks to the policy changes here in the United States, the actions that have taken place in the first half of the year, we're seeing things flip. We're seeing US dollar get weaker, foreign currencies get stronger, and what that means is that US companies are now converting foreign currencies into dollars and seeing a gain, whereas foreign currency companies like Taiwan Semi are converting those dollars into their currencies and seeing a loss in their currency and seeing a loss in their currency. In Taiwan, for example, every 1% depreciation of the dollar against the Taiwanese dollar results in a four-tenths of 1% point decrease in the company's operating margin. To give some example here in the third quarter of 2022, as the US dollar was appreciating rapidly, taiwan Semi's annual revenue growth was 12 percentage points higher when measured in their currency versus if you were to be measuring it in dollars. So real impact from the strengthening dollar helping Taiwan Semi's earnings.
Keith Lanton:So perhaps what we will see is some of the big US tech companies like Apple, meta, that get a significant portion of their business from overseas Apple gets about 64% of its business from overseas. In the first quarter of 2023, apple lost eight percentage points of revenue growth because of the fast rising dollar. Meta lost six percentage points. In fact, Apple in their annual report recently warned that the weakening of foreign currency relative to the dollar adversely affects the US dollar value of the company's foreign currency-denominated sales and earnings and generally leads the company to raise international prices, which potentially reduce demand for the company's products. Bottom line now a strong dollar should be very positive for Apple and therefore, as the dollar, a strong dollar negative for Apple. Weakening dollar should be very positive for Apple and companies like Apple are now seeing the wind shift. Instead of having a a headwind, these companies, because of the weakening of the dollar are going to now have some tailwinds.
Keith Lanton:I talked a little bit about the big, beautiful bill making its way through the House and the Senate One thing to keep in mind for us as individuals in thinking about our portfolios. But one aspect of our portfolios is what we want to pass on to the next generation, not just how we want our portfolios to perform today. What do we think our portfolios are going to grow to? What are we going to spend? What are we going to pass on to the next generation? And one of the big components of that is asking ourselves well, who's going to take care of us if we aren't able to take care of ourselves?
Keith Lanton:And what many folks currently rely upon if their resources are significant but not oversized is many folks engage in what's called Medicaid planning. What's called Medicaid planning, and what that means, is that what some individuals do is, as they approach later years in their lives, they try and dwindle down their estate by various strategies making gifts, depositing funds to irrevocable trusts in order to deplete their savings and in order to potentially qualify for Medicaid. Medicare does not pay for long-term care, but if you are destitute and if you've made yourself destitute by giving away assets and putting assets into irrevocable trust which is giving them away. Well then, you may be eligible for Medicaid to pay for your nursing home and, depending on which version of the Big Beautiful Bill passes, it is possible that some of these versions will make it such that the states will take on an increasing burden for Medicaid payments for long-term care or for nursing homes and the states may be overwhelmed by some of those responsibilities and therefore the states may not offer as generous Medicaid services to provide long-term care in a Medicaid setting such as takes place today. So this is something to carefully watch if that's something that you're considering as your potential plan for nursing home care.
Keith Lanton:It's also possible that the states may continue to provide care, but the quality of that care may decline may decline somewhat significantly and you may want to rethink some of those options. If the state is paying for your care, you may want to consider private long-term care insurance. It's certainly not inexpensive, but it's something that may change the dynamic or the thinking you may want to rethink, depending on what version of the Big beautiful bill if in fact, does pass. But if and when it passes, what version passes and what that may mean going forward with respect to Medicaid for taking care of folks who deplete their savings and make themselves such that they do not have assets in their name. There's various strategies to do that. It's in their name. There's various strategies to do that. Look back periods, etc. But if you engage in that strategy, you may not be able to be in the exact same situation as folks who are doing it today, so you may want to revisit that path.
Keith Lanton:That's everything I've got.
Alan Eppers:Thank you for listening to Mr Keith Lanton. This podcast is available on most platforms, including Apple Podcasts, Spotify and Pandora. For more information, please visit our website at www. heraldlantern. com.
Sophie Cohen:The opinions expressed herein are subject to change and not necessarily the opinion of the firm. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The information presented herein is for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide personal investment advice. It is important that you consider your tolerance for risk and investment goals when making investment decisions. Investing in securities does involve risk and the potential of losing money. The material does not constitute research, investment advice or trade recommendations.