4th & 32
'Slick Willy' Will Einfalt and 'The Lock Smith' Cole Smithson and their friends break down everything NFL gambling on your favorite money making podcast. Come for the bets and stay for the mirth.
4th & 32
AFC Over/Unders 2026
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The boys break down the major news happening around the NFL before they dive into every team's over/under from the AFC. We got jokes, locks and so much more. Enjoy.
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SPEAKER_03Come in poor. Walk out rich. Let's make some fucking money.
SPEAKER_01And his quotes.
SPEAKER_02He's got the starting job and.
SPEAKER_01No, well, yeah, I was gonna talk about just how that whole situation went down. Because that looks bad for Shadur if he because Deshaun just ostracized the fans. Said, y'all booed me. I'm basically playing every every game's an away game. And I know you still got the starting job.
SPEAKER_02The insanity. It's insanity to not understand why you got booed. And it's like, and someone said it on a podcast, we'll talk about it. But like if you were good, people would cheer for you.
SPEAKER_00Yeah.
SPEAKER_02And that's the fuck, that's fucked up. American. Yeah. Yeah, but that's just kind of what it is. Chris Brown beat the shit out of Rihanna, one of America's most beloved pop stars. But he can sing and he can dance. And so he's been forgiven. If he forgot how to dance after, I'm using this. I'm using this. Hold on. I'm not saying it's right. I'm just saying it's what it happens. Let's do this.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, and then I think we I think we talk to uh and then Dolphins. Talking to her? Talk to her. Talk to her.
SPEAKER_02I do like we gotta say that too. Maybe we should make that like a little drop. Talk to her. Spit on that thing. Oh, he spat on the whole team. I know. He's gonna be an early retirement. What is it? He's he was in college when we were, right? He's like our age.
SPEAKER_00Yeah.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. 28, yeah. He's younger than us, actually. He's 98.
SPEAKER_01His play has made it impossible for him to start week one.
SPEAKER_02Oh, we should have bet on that. Remember when two of Penix was like plus 700? Yeah. And two uh let me see if there's still some numbers. Full season. Uh I'm not saying it. They must have yanked that thing down. Hello and welcome back. And not feeling it. Hello and welcome back to Slick Willy and the Locksmith, the gambling show from the 4th and 32 podcast. I'm your host, Cole Smithson, the locksmith. And joining me as always, wearing some sort of bedtime uh dress shirt. It's the one that's made in podcasting. Looking extra wet tonight. It's Slick Willy Will Einfeld. How are you doing? I'm wearing some silk tonight. I know. A little dripped out. Yeah, kind of way too dripped out. I guess it's uh it's uh about one o'clock on the East Coast uh for Will over there, about a little bit after midnight here uh for me in Texas, but we're here to do the AFC over-unders. Uh, we have a ton of news to talk about first, so it's gonna be a little bit till we get into it. Might end up making it two different podcasts, but uh we'll see about that. I think the original idea was we're gonna uh do the NFC over-unders uh tomorrow. Uh like but we have we have so much time in between now and the start of the season that I I think we might just do them Sunday and call it a day. So give us the rest of the week off. But I mean, we got a lot of news to dive into. Uh, Will, but any thoughts about uh what I said so far? Uh no. No, let's uh let's keep going. We got so much to talk about. So much to talk about. Honestly, some uh some drama. The NFL's awesome for that. I do like uh all the videos where women make fun of their boyfriends or husbands for basically being into like the real housewives of the NFL because there's always like player drama and little side comments and snippy little stuff, and like we all pretend like it's super manly uh to be into football, but uh I think we all love it a little bit too much. But I'm gonna start uh with my, you know, personal uh personal vendetta with journalism, I should say. Uh I did get a journalism degree in college, but uh Raiders Ash and Genty sprained his ankle in practice. And the reporting about it, I texted like four people I know, including my dad, like Ash and Genty blew out his knee. It's over. Like Adam Schefter retweeted something where it was like a non-contact. Uh he was carded off. It was a knee injury, and I was like, fuck, well, I guess the season's over. My dad went to bed thinking Genty blew out his knee. And as it turns out, it was just a sprained ankle. So I know everybody wants to be the first to report something and uh get the clicks and the sensationalism, but like there's a gulf of difference between what a sprained ankle looks like and a non-contact knee injury that ends up being, you know, ligament damage and ending someone's season. I was already thinking about all right, Mike Washington's gonna play. I mean, the team's gonna be worse. I'm just worried about Genty coming back, being in full uh shape. And I I'm still worried about that with the sprained ankle, but they're saying it's not gonna be a long-term injury, and he should be able to start the season. If if he uh you know needs to wait a week or two, I'm fine with that. Don't rush him back. He's supposed to be, you know, the centerpiece of this offense. But I just thought it was ridiculous reporting here on the Gentsy thing, and you saw it like it was it was just kind of a clown show uh from the media, and I'm just glad Ash and Genty only sprained his ankle, and uh that knee seems to be all right, you know, knuckle what.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, the the reports that were coming out where teams were or the doll team was kneeled around him crying, like I know, dude. His leg might have fallen off, or just was it was like the Teddy Bridgewater injury.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, yeah. Like that's how they acted, and it just uh it really upset me. And then to learn that it's you know, it's still serious injury, it's a sprained ankle, but it's nothing close to uh how they made it seem. And I just thought that was a little bit ridiculous uh for my end, and also kind of put me in a mood where I was like, all right, well, there's a season, even though I don't think we're gonna be particularly good or make the playoffs, I still think we're gonna be somewhat competitive. And we drafted this guy in a sixth overall. I was gonna say in the top five, but I believe sixth, and I think he's gonna be an amazing player. So I'm just glad he gets the season to work under, you know, the new coaching staff and the new system and to really let his talent shine. And if I I'm also fine with Mike Washington Jr. getting a ton of touches. He looks like a real find, just everything we've seen in the preseason so far. So if this means Mike Washington Jr. is getting a little bit, you know, more workload in the beginning of the season, I think I'm totally okay with that. I've been saying to my dad, to anybody that would listen to me, like, let's run the ball 40, 50 times a game. Like, let's grind the rock out, let's get the play action going. We don't have amazing uh threats on the outside as far as receivers go. Like uh our weapons are really uh Trey Tucker and Brock Bowers. Obviously, Brock Bowers could be really good, but the play action is gonna set up the tight end, gonna set up the short stuff uh with Trey Tucker, uh, play a little West Coast offense like the Kubiaks are known to do, and then we get both running backs going. I I'm back in on this being a really positive opening season for Fernando Mendoza and uh Klee Kubiak as a head coach. So I I'm really glad that he he wasn't actually hurt.
SPEAKER_01Definitely. Yeah, you're gonna need him, and even if he does kind of start the season slow or he's got something that nags him, I I think he'll be okay in the long run. He'll still be able to help you guys out in a good bit. And then, like you said, Mike Washington Jr. is ready to step up.
SPEAKER_02No, 100%. Um, I think next we should go to the Deshaun Watson comments.
SPEAKER_00Okay.
SPEAKER_02Because uh he was named the starter, but he came out in a press conference with maybe the most brain-dead lack of self-awareness that I've ever seen. And I remember being the first person, and you can check the tapes, you can argue with it, uh, go argue with a wall. I was the first person to say that Deshaun Watson would not be good on the Cleveland Brats. Check the tapes. But here's why. Because a guy that has all this stuff publicly aired and you know, the civil cases and had to pay off, he had to pay like something like $30 million to these women that he he abused. And for him to come out in a press conference and basically say, Oh, the fans boo me, like I work really hard. They cheered when I tore my Achilles, like every game's an away game, blah, blah, blah. Wham wham wham. Deshaun, you're a gross pervert, allegedly. No, I don't know if he can sue me for that. Yeah, I mean, it's pretty much been confirmed, right? Like he paid off all these women. I did see actually on Twitter, I know you're not the biggest on Twitter, we're South Carolina Gamecocks, as as the people know, but a Clemson fan account was defending Deshaun Watson, saying, no, those women were hookers. They were just told to, you know, get their money out of it. It was all bullshit. Like he hired hookers, like this is and it's just absolutely uh a brain dead take you'd hear from someone from Easley, South Carolina, from Greenville, South Carolina. Uh, and that is why it will always be Go Cox and Cuck Flemson. Yeah. Oh yeah. Or what is it? Yeah, Cuck Flemson. Yeah. But yeah, just brain dead take from that guy. I I wish I uh remembered his name. I just remember just shaking by it was one of those things I opened like first thing in the morning, and I was shaking my head. Like, what the fuck is up with this? But Deshaun, you have never publicly come out, and I'm sure your lawyers uh have told you not to, and made any effort to apologize for your actions or to make it seem like you're a person trying to be reformed.
SPEAKER_03Yeah. Like you want this all to go under the rug.
SPEAKER_02Like you did these things, and the reason I said you wasn't going to be good in Cleveland is because imagine anyone at your workplace was accused of all this by by dozens of women. Like you wouldn't want them to be the leader in the locker room, and this is just more I'm not the leader stuff. And I think the Cleveland fans can't wait till it's somebody else starting uh at quarterback. Yeah, well, yeah.
SPEAKER_01The Browns messed this this whole situation up Royally. But of course. Paying him so much money, and yeah. If if he had come in and been a top five quarterback like he had been before, um, and then all this stuff happened, like maybe maybe the fans could overlook it, maybe uh the media can kind of overlook it. But him coming out and saying this is nothing about my play, um, the fact that that fans are booing him and stuff, it's absolutely 100% about your play. You've been a terrible quarterback for them. They've given you the most amount of money in NFL history, guaranteed. And and uh, I I just think this is a bad look for Shadur, who's now lost the battle out. Because if he can't I mean, I kind of see where where the Browns are going with it, they're gonna make Shadur the the hero when Deshaun absolutely cannot play, but it's only kind of to try to save what little amount of face they have left.
SPEAKER_02There's no way that uh how do I put this? There's just no way that Shadur is gonna be very good. I I think that's where you're going with that. And also, like Deshaun, you went you're nine and ten as a starter in three seasons when you're paid five seasons guaranteed. And also, there's no way that the owner is not involved in this decision making Deshaun Watson the starter because they're paying him a buttload of money. All the other owners ganged up on the Browns owner because they paid uh a fully guaranteed contract, and everyone else in the league still hasn't been able to get that because the owners are vehemently against it. And you have proven why that's a bad idea. Not only, you know, the various crimes that you may or may not have committed, probably allegedly, but like you also have been bad and gotten hurt and don't deserve any praise from anybody as a player, as a person, like I I you're married, and I can't imagine that that woman's with you for anything other than the money. He's married. Yeah, he got married like last offseason or two off seasons ago. And it's like it's it's all gross and nobody wants to deal with it. And your career barely above 500 quarterback as it is. You had one incredible, phenomenal season. By EPA. You had a couple like really good seasons where we went to the playoffs, and then you had one like superhero season where your team sucked, but you led the league in passing. And other than that, like you've been a utter disappointment as a guy won a national championship in college. Also, I'm not saying it's right, but like you said, people would be on your side if you're a good quarterback. I don't think that's good, and I'd still be on here shitting on you, but that's how America works. I brought it up to Will before the show. Chris Brown, very publicly, horrible crime he committed on Rihanna in his car, beat her head into the into the side window. But guess what? He can sing and he can dance, and people have forgiven him. Is that right?
SPEAKER_03No, probably a bad guy, but he didn't forget how to dance. And if he if he you forgot how to dance.
SPEAKER_00Yeah.
SPEAKER_03So you're fucked. And up yours. Like that's that's where it's it's like so brain dead.
SPEAKER_02I I can't believe he can't. I when I saw it, I couldn't believe it. Like my mouth hit the floor. Anyway, sorry, I'm ranting.
SPEAKER_01No, you're good. I was gonna just say by EPA, he was has been the worst Browns quarterback uh in the history of their franchise. And uh yeah, and that's saying a lot because they've had a lot of bad quarterbacks, at least just since 2000. So it's uh yeah, that's saying something in fact he had to come back out and apologize after he got named the starter too. Like it's just it's all a shit show.
SPEAKER_02That's expected points average and expected penis actions. Both EPAs, you've been the worst quarterback in Brad's history. I oh, I'm so I'm so proud of myself. I was like, what acronym would work for this? But yeah. Uh no, it's you're you're fucked and get fucked to show. Uh yeah, you deserve to be in prison, in my mind.
SPEAKER_03So if you truly did the things that you did, you should probably be in prison. So be happy you're playing in the NFL and getting booted.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. Do you see that they, Brown's fans, uh vandalize Jim Brown's statue for protesting to protest Deshaun being named the starter?
SPEAKER_02No, that's ridiculous. Also, didn't Jim Brown beat his wife? Am I wrong about that?
SPEAKER_01Damage to the city, Cleveland is done. 27 plus victims, zero supporters, no regret. No regrets. That was his quote that he said. He's like, I don't have any regrets. Uh like, really? None? Zero regrets? Okay.
SPEAKER_02Um, Jim Brown, also famously bad person. Uh but he was good at football. In 1985, he he was charged with rape. It was dismissed, and then in uh 86, he was arrested for assaulting his fiancee. Oh. Uh charged with assault. Oh, 1968, charged with assault with intent to murder after his girlfriend was found injured beneath the balcony of his apartment. She refused to testify. So yeah, Browns have a long history of supporting awful, awful men. Maybe they should take down the statue. Not um I know it was a different time, but seems pretty bad all around. Uh, anything else, Will? No. Uh, how about speaking of bad, Jed York, owner of the 49ers? I saw he was released on a $5,000 bond, and I was like, uh, it was prostitutes, wasn't it? It absolutely was prostitutes. He got uh arrested for soliciting a minor, allegedly, I guess. Or not a minor, not a minor, but soliciting a prostitute. Sorry, sorry. I disavow. I didn't I didn't mean to say that. But who knows with these fucking billionaires.
SPEAKER_01When asked by the police what he's doing in the area, York replied he's just driving. Yes, if he's meeting anyone, York says no. Police ask if the vehicle he's driving is a rental. He says yeah. And yeah, they got some some body cam footage. Oh, that's tough.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, it seems like uh he pled no contest, so that means you did it. Yeah. It doesn't matter, dude. I mean he's a billionaire, he's not gonna feel it, right? Like, what's what's somebody gonna take away as private yacht or private yacht and jet or whatever? Like, no. But gross.
SPEAKER_01Gross.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. But at least, hey, hey, Deshaun, maybe learn the lesson. Get a get a prostitute, get all the money in the world. But don't get caught. I don't know. I I genuinely don't know. Like, like, how do these rich guys get caught? There is a world out there of high-class escorts, if we are to believe, you know, rumors and and the media. Like, how do you get caught?
SPEAKER_01Doing stupid.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. Just fucking dumb. 49ers not feeling good about uh your season, all the stuff swirling around you. Um, anything else you want to say about Jed York? No, no, I got nothing. Uh uh, I thought this was an interesting trade. We talked about uh Jaden Higgins getting hurt with the Texans a couple pods ago. Kayshawn Booty traded from the Pats to the Texans. I kind of like that move. I think he's been he's proven as like a pretty decent second or third option. Um and all they sent was Jalen Reed and uh 28 seventh round pick. So pretty good trade there. Yeah. Uh for the Texans, kind of found a position of need. And yeah. I I don't think there's much else to say about it, but if he can get up and going, I I think he put up whatever he's gonna put up with the Pats uh in a situation where he may even get more touches. Yeah, definitely. I'm seeing him. Oh, 100%. 100% kind of worked out for both teams. I think the Patriots had a bit of a glut at wide receiver and weren't gonna be able to use him anyway. Uh I'm also seeing Eagles rookie Mikai Lemon back at practice, uh, says confident hamstring injury won't linger into season. Never want to see those hamstring injuries early in the year. We've seen it with Justin Jefferson, we've seen it with so many guys. Those things absolutely do linger into the season. I hope he he's gonna be really good and not be hurt, but it's gonna be hard for him to get up and rolling after missing uh a couple weeks there. Yeah. Um oh, we gotta talk about the big one. I I forgot about this. So there was this whole court case where basically, I don't know if we went up to the Supreme Court or uh one of the major courts where they basically said that players in the NFL can go back to college uh and play, and there's a guy cut by the Browns, a tight end. I'm spacing on his name right now, but he was set to go back to LSU, and then all of the uh college conferences basically uh passed rules within the conferences that would punish coaches for bringing guys from the NFL back to school. So that was kind of an interest, interesting move. I saw the Big Ten SEC, Wilson, the ACC. Uh so kind of making it really difficult for these players to actually go back. I'm not the most against it, but I think they should do what the NBA did, where players go, do the combine, see if they actually want to leave school, especially with the transfer portal the way it is now. Like a guy can find a school pretty easily after that and then allow them to go back to college. I don't know if they should be able to play in the NFL and then go back to college, but I'm also just like not super against it. I think it's fine, especially if it's a guy like this who probably wasn't gonna make a roster anyway. Daquan right. Daquan right, yeah. So I'm I'm not the most against it, but I wanted your thoughts on the situation.
SPEAKER_01Well, I'm against it. I think it's another one of those situations. There's only so many guys that get to play on college rosters. Um of these guys have played for four years, they've been great starters for four years, but your time's done. It's it's time to turn over a new leaf. Um, you don't get to go try your hand at the NFL and you don't like how the practice is going, so you decide to go back to to to college. Not I don't I don't think that's how it works.
SPEAKER_02And yeah. Well, now they get five years of eligibility.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. And this all kind of started because of uh Trade Ed Chamblis. Uh didn't he sue?
SPEAKER_02Um there's a whole big lawsuit uh where he sued for another year of eligibility, and uh he ended up losing the lawsuit, I want to say. It was like an injunction, and I'm I'm not a legal expert by any means. But um they ended up just because so many players got to play the fifth year with COVID. I think they just kind of changed the rules. Yeah. Uh because it makes sense. But I don't care about that. I'm not like a traditionalist in any sense. Yeah.
SPEAKER_01I think it's just it's unfair to these kids who are coming in 18, 19, 20 years old, and you should have a chance to be played for your team.
SPEAKER_02To be fair to him though, he redshirted at Fair State as a freshman, didn't play the second year. But you just can't redshirt twice. And so he's only played barely, I mean he played three full seasons and he barely played um a fourth season. So I don't hate it for somebody like him. Um but if you're gonna make a four, you're gonna make a five, I think it's fine. I think if you're trying to support the young players, like the transfer portal in general, is kind of devastating for them. Yeah. Because teams go find guys that have been proven and that are older. And look at Indiana. They were all transfer portal guys, they were all old guys that could have easily been in the NFL by that point, like 23, sometimes 24-year-olds, and like they dominated college football last year. So I don't I don't hate it. I don't have strong opinions on it. And I'm glad Trinidad Chambliss is gonna get to play again. I mean, he was super exciting. Damn, he had a crazy last season with Ferris State. He had uh 29,000 or 29,000, 2,900 yards passing, 26 touchdowns, six picks, and then he had a thousand on the ground with 25 touchdowns. That's crazy. Um dominating division two. He's a guy who I'm interested to see what his prospects are as an NFL player because he's gonna be very, I mean, look, let's say it's small to be an NFL quarterback, and then he's going to be 25 when he comes in. So I'm curious how that's gonna work. Uh anything else news-wise that you really wanted to hit?
SPEAKER_01NFL took our suggestion and ended the Pro Bowl.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, everybody's happy with that. I saw uh big Big Cat tweet, shut up, Big Cat. Uh, is it okay to say I feel nothing? It's been on hospice care being spoon-fed applesauce for a decade. I imagine that was about the Pro Bowl. I it's yeah. Nobody cares about the Pro Bowl, nobody watches it, nobody watched the Pro Bowl games. They're still gonna have uh Pro Bowlers, right? Yeah.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, they're gonna still award 88 guys. Um now they're gonna focus on making that an actual honor instead of guys like Chadur was a fucking Pro Bowler last year.
SPEAKER_02That's what I'm saying. That it's actually perfect this way. Yeah. Because nobody cares. They still got eyeballs on it because people just watch whatever the uh the NFL gives them, but um now it's actually the 88 best players in each conference. Yeah. As opposed to whatever it became where uh Tyler Huntley made the Pro Bowl and uh Shadur and and other guys that just absolutely didn't deserve the honor. Tyler Huntley played like three games in a Pro Bowl season. Like it shit was ridiculous. Um Hard Knocks uh is coming back. Is it already back? It's gotta already be back, right? Yeah. Uh Seahawks are on Hard Knocks this year. I'm actually looking forward to watching it. I'm probably just gonna binge it. That's why I haven't started it. I don't know what to do.
SPEAKER_01It was good. It's good. I'm liking it.
SPEAKER_02Do you like uh McDonald as a personality?
SPEAKER_00Mm-hmm.
SPEAKER_02I guess yeah, the from stuff I've seen, I've liked. I was trying to see what this thing is. It says uh 2007, it will be back. Um, I guess it was up in the air whether it would come back for 2027. Interesting. Uh it says the uh Patriots will be the team in 2027. Oh, I guess the NFL's just deciding who's gonna be no next. Oh, okay. Yeah. I guess they're just deciding now because it used to be rules like you couldn't have a first year head coach, you could opt out. Like if you made the playoffs, you could opt out, and so it'll only be like four or five teams, and it'd be a pretty bad team, typically. But I like having a team like the Seahawks this year. If the Patriots do kind of uh, you know, fall from grace next season, like them trying to build themselves back up to a Super Bowl team. Like, I I kind of like that a lot. Um decision about the Raiders starter hasn't been made yet. I've I've put my hat in the ring saying Mendoza should get it, but I totally get why uh people want us to start Kirk Cousins right away. I just don't want to it to be too long. Um yeah, I'm not really seeing any other news.
SPEAKER_01Tua, his play has made it impossible for him to start week one. That's the quote coming out. Um who said it? Uh I think he was just a beat reporter. Let me see if I can find the yeah, it it has been terrible. He's missing check downs to the left. Um it was a direct quote quote for me in rap report. Um yeah. Basically. Oh man. Yeah, no, it's i he's just been so bad um in this preseason that that they're gonna they're gonna be uh they're gonna be starting the the season with Fennex instead.
SPEAKER_02Their plan was to have Tua come in and start just while Pennex has been banged up and to uh yeah, to just try to help Pen X get his recovery back going and yeah, they're gonna roll with with Pennex because we talked about in one of the last pods, it was the odds were like Penix min uh plus 700 and Tua minus 700 or something like that. And we should have banged Penix, I mean pause, I guess. But yeah, I mean Tua's just doesn't have the confidence anymore. He's only 28, but it does seem like I why would you even want him as a backup at this point? Yeah, yeah. He's not an exciting backup. You want to have like a Ryan Fitzpatrick-esque backup that can come in and like sling the ball around. I don't think Penix is that guy at all. Or sorry, Tua. I don't know if Penix is particularly good either.
SPEAKER_01Penix is way more exciting for that team.
SPEAKER_02He can get the ball to he can't hit us, hit the broad side of the barn sometimes.
SPEAKER_01Like he's just throw it downfield.
SPEAKER_02Inaccurate. Yeah, Tua will not. But yeah. No, I mean, Mike McDaniel doesn't get enough credit for how good he made Tua. Yeah. That's that's my take. I wanted him this offseason. I'm not shocked he went to the Chargers. I think he's gonna wait until he can get the absolute best job uh available to him, kind of like Ben Johnson. I think he regrets taking the Dolphins job with Tua. He just kind of took what was available at the time, and I think he's gonna have his pick of the litter.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. Let's talk that Dolphins camp because apparently that offense has looked horrible. Not shocking.
SPEAKER_02I mean, they're overunder, not to uh bring it up, it's three and a half. Yeah. And I think they're gonna struggle to hit four games. I mean, a lot of teams like they just trip and fall their way to four games. I think the Raiders did that last year, but yeah, no, it's the Dolphins have the worst roster in the NFL. And they've brought Malik Willis in, and it's just it's a terrible situation, dude.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, Malik Willis had to pull the offense aside to try to talk to him and try to uh try to hype the guys up and get them playing at a certain standard, and it didn't help. So no.
SPEAKER_02Uh yeah. They have no offensive line, they have no receivers, and their defense is questionable at best. Like it's it's gonna be a pretty bad season. And a quarterback who was good in a Packers system that was kind of set up for him to have success, also as a backup. Like he had some good games in there, but we've seen Malik Willis as a starter, and it did not go well in Tennessee. Yeah. Malik Willis is a career, six touchdowns, three picks, and four seasons. I know a lot of time spent as a backup. He's this is not a guy that you can just be like, all right, fix it. And I like Malik Willis. Yeah. I think he's fine, but God forbid he gets her running around trying to make up for the bad offensive line. You're bringing in Quinn Ewers. Gross. They have the Iowa quarterback from last year on the roster. Like, this this might be a I mean, this might be the worst team in the NFL. Yeah. Alright, anything else, Will? Ed Oliver. Oh, yeah. This is a very sad story. Uh you you brought it up to me, so you can Yeah.
SPEAKER_01Ed Oliver Jr., his almost two-year-old son has tragically died in an accidental drowning. Uh, this happened the end of June this past year. Um but yeah, it's just really, really sad for the family. Um, hope they're doing okay. Um yeah, he was rushed to a nearby hospital, and yeah, it's just he didn't he did not survive. And yeah.
SPEAKER_02No, it's just a horrible, horrible story. You totally understand if Ed Oliver had his mind anywhere else but football at this point. And uh obviously as podcasts send our you know, thoughts and prayers in a time like this, just it's something people say, but like you just really gotta feel for anybody going through a situation like that and just hope that they can put the pieces together because that's kind of where they're at right now, unfortunately. Yeah, it's just so sad. Yeah, poor one out for Ed Oliver Jr. and the family.
SPEAKER_01Left you in a kind of a tough spot to get us back on track here.
SPEAKER_02I will I will do my best. Uh yeah, let's uh let's dive into these over-unders and uh keep anyone out there struggling in your thoughts uh while we do this. I think that's the only way to move forward. Um yeah, we're gonna do the AFC today, like I said. And uh we're just gonna go off bovada. You know, the odds that they have laid out here right now. Um we're gonna, like I said, we're gonna come back and do the NFC. Uh, we'll keep track of this. And um three locks per conference. That's why I couldn't think of. Okay. Uh, but that's where we're at. Um, and we're just gonna go in the order. So it's AFC East, uh, AFC South, North, and then finishing up with the West. There's some interesting, interesting ones here. Uh, in years past, we have done playoffs at the end, but I think we're just gonna do the over-under straight up because um we have enough time with Labor Day being late that we can come back on and we're gonna do our playoff preview, the teams we have in, the bubble teams, uh, and then our Super Bowl picks. We kind of talked about it a little bit in futures and everything, but I I still haven't circled the two teams that I want to pick. Okay. I think I want to go weird this year.
SPEAKER_00Okay.
SPEAKER_02When it comes to my Super Bowl pick. I think I'm just shooting for the moon. Because who had Seahawks Patriots last year? Nobody. Not really. Um AFC, just looking at the numbers that I have written down. I mean, a ton of teams in that eight and a half, nine and a half, ten and a half range. I'm just trying to count it up right now. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten, eleven. Obviously, only seven teams make the playoffs. So I think if you're doing this at home, uh, whether you want to, you know, fade us or tail us, I think the biggest thing is like if you are confident this team is gonna make the playoffs, that's where you gotta ride. If you're gonna pick one of these uh bigger numbers, at least. But we're gonna start in Pittsburgh.
SPEAKER_01Real quick.
SPEAKER_02I just want to talk a couple of couple teams here. Yeah, Will's got Will's got his uh little segment before. You gotta remind me. Yeah. We're pulling back the curtain a little bit today.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, real quick, just um a couple couple movers um that I've seen. I'm I'm gonna talk a couple uh top three. Well, I'll just start with uh with top three over bets by ticket count for NFC for the NFL season is the uh the Giants at seven and a half, the Raiders at five and a half, and the Broncos at nine and a half. So we got a lot of bets coming in there. Top three money, uh just in terms of overs for the money wise, uh the Minnesota Vikings at eight and a half, the Broncos at nine and a half, and the Lions at ten and a half are all getting a ton of money. Vegas moved, let's see, moved up a game. Uh your your Raiders moved from five and a half to six and a half, uh just with all that money coming in on y'all.
SPEAKER_02Um, we're picking them at five and a half, but I think that's just because the way the bovada odds were set up for us.
SPEAKER_01Yep. Um top three under tickets this year are the Dolphins at four and a half, the Patriots at nine and a half, and the Packers at ten and a half. And uh yeah, top three in the in the money are the Cardinals at four and a half, dolphins again at four and a half, and the Bears at nine and a half. Those are unders? Yeah, those are top three unders that are getting the most amount of money right now. Um Ravens and Rams have both moved up a game as well. Um Cowboys as well going from eight and a half to nine and a half, and then no other team has moved up, but we have seen a couple move back. Cardinals open to that four and a half. I think they're actually now at three and a half.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, they have the hardest schedule in the league, too. Yeah. And I will be using Warren Sharp's uh strength of schedule based on all of the over-unders put together. So when you hear me reference strength of schedule throughout the rest of this pod in the next one, uh, that's where that's coming from.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. Yep. And then yeah, Miami also opened at four and a half, they dipped down to three and a half, and then Packers and Chargers started opened both at 10.5, they're at nine and a half. So yeah, just just some things to keep in mind. There's a lot of money coming in uh as we do these, and just just a couple things to think about. Um, I also found in ESPN totals game that they're doing where they give out about 5,000 in prizes. You can go through and you can pick every single team. I uh created a group called the Fourth and 32 for anybody out there that wants to throw their hat in the ring. Um, maybe join the group. We can uh get some of our our friends and and everybody doing this and might be a fun way to keep track of everything.
SPEAKER_02No, 100%. And this is something you want to get in pretty quickly. Like all this money's coming in, lines are moving. I think now is the time to do it because they're only gonna keep moving more and more as uh we get closer to the season.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, anything else for from you, Will? Nah, let's jump to the AFC.
SPEAKER_02I think that's pretty helpful. Uh, you do look sharp in the silk, I will say. Thank you. Yeah, can't take my eyes off you. Um, we're gonna start in Pittsburgh. Uh sorry for stepping on your segment for a second. Uh, we have the Steelers uh where they always are. Mike Tomlin, no Mike Tomlin, doesn't matter. The Steelers will be eight and a half uh as they're over under every season from now until uh the sun grows and envelops the earth, but over at plus 110, under at minus 130, so juiced to the under. I think this is the year everybody's gonna want to pick the under. Mike McCarthy in there. I know Will thinks he's a bottom five coach in the NFL. I think that's ludicrous. Uh, Mike McCarthy has been proven to be a good coach in the NFL, wins a lot of regular season games. I'm not saying he's the best playoff performer, but he does have a Super Bowl victory uh with Aaron Rodgers back from the Green Bay days. This one sucks. I don't like picking it, but I just don't know how you go over here. I I just don't Rogers is another year older. He's got an AI wife or whatever, and it's just it's just getting weird. This roster's getting older. I don't really believe in any of the quarterbacks behind Rodgers if that doesn't go well help-wise. Is the defense good enough to keep them really competitive? Are they gonna have the exact same season they had last year where they went over and won the division on the last week of the season? I think that's kind of best case scenario for them. But they do also have they have DK Metalf and Michael Pitt, man. That's not a terrible one-two punch at wide receiver. They got a good running back room. Like I I don't know, man. I know where you're going, but what's your what's your uh pitch me on it?
SPEAKER_01I just think this line is perfect. Um I kind of want to stay away from it. Just I mean, yeah, I'm probably gonna go under. Um this is their last the a last hurrah. Um, they're still trying to build this this team out to see what they can do, but I just I don't see them as a playoff team. You know, they made it their last year. And I think the their fan base wants them to bottom out um so they can actually have a chance at restarting this thing, but I don't know. Yeah. I mean, you know my thoughts on McCarthy. I I don't think he's a good co coach.
SPEAKER_02I don't think uh this team's even gonna bottom out. Like I see them winning seven, eight, or nine games, honestly. Maybe ten best case scenario. And that's if everything goes right. I just think there's so many things that can go wrong here. Like their secondary should be really good, but it is older guys, so like any injuries there, that really hurts them. Uh again, like defensive line pass rush, like older guys. So, like if everyone stays healthy, including Aaron Rodgers, I think this team can be pretty competitive week to week, but that's a lot of ifs, and they kind of had that season last year.
unknownYeah.
SPEAKER_02And I also think it would be perfect if right after Mike Tomlin leaves, they finally don't go above 500, just kind of cementing Mike Tomlin's legacy as the perpetual 500 and above head coach that he was, especially as he kind of, you know, looks around the league to see what jobs open up for his second chapter. And I'm going under for the storylines. I just that I don't know. I kind of want Aaron Rodgers to have like one last hurrah, but it's been four seasons of one last hurrah's, and like it hasn't worked out once. Yeah. Like last year was the best version of it. I think they're gonna miss Kenneth Gainwell a lot. He was super important in that offense. I do like Rico Dowdle there, but do I believe this team can really be like a grind the ball out and and run, run, run, kind of keep Aaron Rodgers upright? I don't know. Like, do they have a dominant offensive line? I don't think particularly. But this team's gonna be annoying to bet week to week, and they're gonna be annoying to bet here. They're smack dab in the middle on strength of schedule. I was gonna let that decide for me. They're 17th, so it's like, all right, the 17th, uh easiest, I guess. So like right in the middle. I'm gonna go under because too many things can go wrong, but I don't feel great about it. I'm gonna be honest. Definitely not a lot.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I don't I don't think I think you stay away from betting this one.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. All right. Next up, we got the Browns. We were just talking about Deshaun Watson, that whole situation. We have five and a half wins. Feels like the Browns are always here. Lost their best player in the offseason, traded him to the Rams. Quarterback situations, kind of a nightmare. Defensive coordinator that they loved left, but their defense still should be pretty good just with all the talent on it. Sitting at five and a half, uh, over minus 115, under minus 105. Like over six and a half plus 175. So they really think they're staying in that, you know, four, five, six win range. I feel like going under is the easy pick here, but I want your thoughts on it.
SPEAKER_01I almost want to lock it in. Really? Almost. I think there's three other teams that I like better and they're over bet, so it's a little bit more fun. Um yeah, I don't I don't see the Browns getting five wins. I think that five and a half is a little too high. I could see their defense being pretty good, though. Yeah. It'll keep them in games, but I just I don't think they have the the capabilities on offense to score the ball and and win games.
SPEAKER_02And they don't have the finisher in Miles Garrett either. Do you think there's a chance this offense ends up being really good with the two rookie receivers, Jerry Judy, some good running backs? Like they can kind of or the quarterback situation is just too fucked at this point.
SPEAKER_01Too fucked. Yeah, I'm shaking my head over here. I don't think. I mean, I love I love the team besides. Outside of that quarterback room. I like Harold Fanning Jr. I like um Quinchon Judkins a lot, but this is still one of the worst offensive lines in the league. And and quarterback's most important position. And yeah, they don't have one.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, I'm just gonna fade you to fade you here.
SPEAKER_02I'm gonna go over. Don't feel great about it. Maybe they can get the six wins. They have the six, the easiest schedule in the NFL. So I'm just gonna go over for shits and giggles.
SPEAKER_01But don't I'm not locking it in, but it is one of my favorite unders. I could see them winning like six, seven games.
SPEAKER_02I really could. Uh six, seven obligatory seven. Who do they play?
SPEAKER_01Who can they because they're not gonna be winning divisional games.
SPEAKER_02They'll probably get always win two or three divisional games for no reason. Um, they have the NFC South. There's a chance they swallow up some of those offenses in the NFC South. They have like Tennessee, the Jets. They're gonna pick the Steelers off. You think they're going under? They always lose a game to the Browns. They have the Giants, they have the Colts late in the season. That could be a bad Colts team at that point. They have my Raiders. Like, there are some winnable games on the schedule. Like extraordinarily winnable games. But I think we could be sick going into the bye-week, uh, week 11 with like two wins there, and I need four out of the last seven um to get to this mark, but I could see it happening. Like a week 14 home versus Atlanta, cold weather, December, like that. I think it just eat up that offense. Bad quarterback plan. I'm getting I'm just taking over because strength of schedule and the defense is pretty good. And like the skills positions are good. Like there's some talent on that team, but it's just I just can pick all the same with you, I guess. Um, this one next one's super interesting to me. Bengals at 10 and a half, they do have the second easiest schedule in the NFL. I will say that. Uh, over plus 105, under minus 135, juice to the under, but man, that schedule's easy. Like I said, NFC South. The I mean the big thing well with the Bengals will always be Joe Burrow's health at this point. You know what I mean? But there's damn, there's some easy winnable games on the schedule.
SPEAKER_01I went through a lot of these teams too. Um, I had the Bengals going right at 11 and six to the over. Um if you're betting this one, I think you take it over the nine and a half at minus 185. But yeah. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. I think it's a really good line. I think they're probably that I well, I'm leaning over with them. I think they probably um can get there if they stay healthy and everything, but don't love it.
SPEAKER_02I just I want to see Joe Burrow healthy for a whole season. I keep bringing it up because Will forgets they have not made the uh playoffs since 2022, 2023 season. Like, it just keeps happening. And maybe this is the year they break it, but like you're not gonna find me betting on it. Uh yeah. 2022 playoffs. They lost to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game. Have not been back. I don't love it. I'm gonna be honest. What have their records been? They have been uh nine wins, nine wins, six wins. Give me the under. Like I want Joe Burrow to be healthy as anyone else, but I gotta see it. All right, this next one, I think, you know, we all kind of love Ravens' fifth easiest schedule in the NFL. They're also at 10 and a half. If I'm under on the Bengals and I'm under on the Steelers, somebody's gotta win this division. They've the NFC uh South, which Lamar's dominated the NFC generally as a as a player. I everything about their head coach that I keep hearing is is really positive. Everything about the rookie receivers they brought in, really positive. Not great that Rashad Bateman got arrested for domestic violence, but like he's been kind of up and down as a player there anyway. And like there's no reason this defense shouldn't be awesome. So we're big Lamar uh Jackson fans on this podcast. We're Lamartians, uh over minus 125, under plus 105. But yeah, I'm banging the Ravens over and I'm locking it up.
SPEAKER_00I like it. Yeah, I'm gonna go over with you. It's a good team, and yeah. Fifth easiest schedule is really really easy. Yeah. No, 100%. No lock, though, right?
SPEAKER_02No lock. No lock. I'm saving them. Cool, cool, cool. Yeah, I mean, it's Lamar's our guy. I also don't hate over 11.5 or plus 160. I think they're gonna be head and shoulders above the rest of this division, just honestly. All right, let's go to your uh Jags division, Will. We're gonna start with the Titans. Six and a half over plus one twenty, under, minus one forty, juiced to the under. I know you've talked shit on Robert Salah. I know you're not the biggest fan. They have the SmackDab middle easiest schedule in the league at 16th. Um, but I think this team could be okay. I just want your thoughts on it.
SPEAKER_01Where's the line? Do you have five and a half? Six and a half.
SPEAKER_02Six and a half.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I'm I'm gonna go with that under. Yeah, like I I've already mentioned that I don't like um much about this team.
SPEAKER_02Seems like Ward and um uh if they can get Ward going, like they have a good receiver room, like a really good receiver room. I mean, Calvin Ridley, can he return to form? I don't know, but he's still in his prime. Wandale Robinson was awesome on the Giants. They drafted Carnell Tate in the first round. Uh DK, the returner, was awesome last year. And then Ao Manor as a rookie also uh showed a lot of pop last year as a receiver. So, like, I mean, that's at their peaks. That is one of the best one through five receiver rooms. Like, if all these guys actually take a step forward that are young, Tate's good right away, and Ridley, like I mean, it's a lot of ifs, but um, if they can get Cam Ward going, I think they could be a really good team. Not like good this year necessarily, but it's it's really hard for me to pick under six and a half. Um, I think they improve their defense. I think they have a much better coaching situation. And sometimes like bringing in an average NFL head coach, which Robert Salah might be after you have Brian Callahan, might just be, you know, lift them to the middle of the pack. You know what I mean? Yeah. It's very hard for me to pick the over, though. I say all that because Cam Ward wasn't all pretty last year. Yeah. But he showed some flashes. But give me, I like when we fade each other. I'm gonna take the over tentatively.
SPEAKER_00Okay.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I like having the under there. Yeah, next up, your Jags. Well, eight and a half. I thought this one was pretty low. Uh, minus 140 on the over, so juice to the over, and a plus 120 on the under eight and a half. Couple balls bounced the right way. You could have been in the AFC Championship game last year, maybe even the Super Bowl. You have a great head coach, it seems like. Lost some pieces. Where's your head at?
SPEAKER_01Where's our strength of schedule? Yours that I've actually not checked.
SPEAKER_02Okay. So not too bad on the on the red side, like green's positive, red's bad. Definitely on the red side, like not in the middle. Um but smack dab in the middle.
SPEAKER_01I like the over.
unknownYeah.
SPEAKER_01I think it's a little low. Um, I think we can get to 10-11 wins, um even if we don't win the division. So and we end up splitting with usually Texans and Colts.
SPEAKER_02So um Yeah, you just have a tough uh you got the NFC East and the Bears. Oh, that's gonna be a battle for your heart, Will.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, no.
SPEAKER_02Bears Jags. House divided. Yeah, but you start the season really tough, and you can get in a hole here. I absolutely think you're live for the division. I think you're live to win 10 games, too. You start with Cleveland, gotta win that. Absolutely. That's gonna be easy. Should be. Denver, New England, Cincinnati, Philly, Houston, bye week. Bye week can't come soon enough. That is a tough stretch of games. But you get out of there three and three. I don't think I I don't see any reason why you can't hit this over eight and a half. I'm I'm hitting over. We stomped Denver last year. Um no, you did on your coach's grade and the second half of your schedules got after the bye week at least. Uh you got Tennessee twice, you got indie twice. Like, like I said, if you're three and three, not sitting at two and four or one and five, god forbid, like that should be four wins. Should be. And then all you need is two more wins to hit the eight and a half.
SPEAKER_00Yeah.
SPEAKER_02Got late season Pittsburgh, that might be a cakewalk. You got Giants, you got the commanders. I think the commanders are gonna be kind of bad.
SPEAKER_01So definitely some winnable games.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I think I just think the line's too low. Honestly. Over nine and a half is only plus 120. Like this was very close to nine and a half being the number. I think I still would have liked it. Over 10 and a half plus 210. Not crazy. Not crazy at all. All right, let's get to they fucked everyone that bet against their over-under last year because I think they just barely hit it before Phil Rivers came in. I think it was seven and a half. This year the Colts are up to eight and a half. Uh, minus 105 on the over, minus 115 on the under. I couldn't love the under more. Coach that's on the hot seat, Daniel Jones, is he gonna stay healthy? Absolutely not. What are you gonna bring in old Phil Rivers again? Anthony Richardson's your backup. Like, I don't see how they go to nine wins because not only is that the situation, they have the ninth easiest schedule in the league, but it's they, if you go back last year and look at who the Colts played, like look at the quarterbacks that were playing that week, like all everything included in that, like you see how uh easy their schedule was, where they opened the season, what is it, seven and one, nine and or eight and two, and then lost every game after that. They played Miami week one, they killed them. That you know, Miami implosion season, beat Denver when they shouldn't have. Remember, that was the field goal game where there's the leverage call. Mm-hmm. Uh, killed the Titans with like the worst coach in NFL history, lost to the Rams, killed the Raiders when Pete Carroll and everything. Like, good, cool. Barely beat the Cardinals, beat the Chargers. That was a legitimate win. Like they they beat a playoff team and they they kind of hung it on them, beat the Titans again, got clowned by the Steelers and beat Atlanta in overtime where Atlanta looked really good. That is not an impressive start to the season. Give me the under and lock me the fuck up. Second lock of the night. I like it. Yeah, I'm I can't envision this team winning nine games. I can't. I don't care who they're playing, I don't care what they're doing. It's not gonna be as easy as it was last year. And they open with Baltimore, Kansas City, Houston. They could be behind the eight ball right away. Because at that point, if they're 0-3 after that, maybe one and two is a lot better for them. But if they're 0-3, which I could very easily see them being, they gotta go, what, nine and and five the rest of the way, nine and four the rest of the way. That's not happening. Yeah, I don't see that happening. Yeah. And their strength of schedule says easy, but like at Minnesota, that's not gonna be a uh cakewalk just because Kevin O'Connell um must nine starting. At Pittsburgh, a team that killed them last year with that defense. At Jacksonville, you know you own them in Jacksonville, at Houston, at Philly, Cincinnati. Like the there's some very losable games on the schedule. Sorry, I I'm ranting. I hate the Colts. I I want them to completely blow it up and start over because I just find them to be such an eyesore. Yeah. Looking at this roster. What do you think? Yeah, I agree with you there. They run in Keenan Allen. Mm-hmm. Congrats. Old man, no hamstrings. I like Keenan Allen's a good player. I'm just talking shit, but he is 34 with hamstring. They need someone to catch passes. Are you going under? I'm going under. Yeah. Did did I just give all the points so you got nothing to say?
SPEAKER_00Yeah.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. Alright, cool. Um, and this team is like two injuries away from just being the worst team in the FO. Is the Sauce Gardner trade? Yeah. Is the Sauce Gardner trade gonna work out eventually? No first round pick. Pass rush could be good if everyone stays healthy, but Dan Jones goes down, you got Riley Leonard or Anthony Richardson. Not feeling confident about either of those. Alec Pierce goes down. All you got is Josh Downs, Keenan Allen, Nick Westbrook Keene. Jonathan Taylor goes down. DJ Giddens, Seth McAllen? Ugh. Yeah. Terrified.
SPEAKER_03Ulysses Bentley? The fourth? Our 17th president?
SPEAKER_02Beast. Who is Ulysses Bentley? I guess he's an Ole Miss rookie. 25-year-old rookie from Ole Miss. All right. Last up in the division, also pretty low. I don't think your division's going to be this bad. But uh Texans, nine and a half, minus 150 for the over. So very juice to the over. And then plus 115 for under 9.5. We'll let you take this one away.
SPEAKER_01This is another line where I think it's it's pretty perfect. I went through and I did every Texans game. I had them right at 10 and 7 this year. Um, I think that offensive line is gonna hold them back a little bit. Um that defense is is really, really good. They'll hang in a lot of games, they'll win a lot of games because of that defense. But I'm gonna lean over, but it's it is just a lean. This isn't a lock in any way.
SPEAKER_02Their defense is just too good. Their strength of schedule sitting down at 22nd. You don't love to see that. They do have some tough games on here, but I think they should they should kind of manhandle the other two teams in your division, uh, besides your Jags. And there's no like tough stretch here. Like, like there's always a gimme game in between like good teams they're playing. Like uh Buffalo, Cincinnati to start the year, not awesome, but their defense is gonna be roller in. Yeah um, and then they have a stretch of Jacksonville, Philly, Green Bay, not great, but there's there's just enough easy games on here. I'm gonna take the over. I don't love it. Like you said, it's a great, uh, it's a great line, but this defense is phenomenal. Uh I've been saying I still have all my stock in CJ Stroud. I think he's gonna be really good again at some point. I liked the uh Kayshawn Booty trade. Uh they got a good running back room, like they could spell Woody Marks, who gets hurt like every fifth play. Now they got Dave Montgomery. Joe Jawar Jordan showed some stuff. Offensive line's gonna be an issue, but I think their defense will make up for it. All right. Going up into the AFC East team with the fourth easiest schedule in the NFL. It's gonna be the New York Jets sitting at five and a half over minus 120, under even, slightly juiced to the over. I think the Jets are gonna be better than people think they are uh with Geno Smith just because it was such a disaster in Vegas last year. And they have some weapons on that off. I could see them hitting over, but what are your thoughts?
SPEAKER_01I I would not want to bet that. No. Yeah, I'm I'm I'm leaning under just because I'm not a big fan of Aaron Glenn and what he's done in his what will be short tenure. Um they have some pieces, but I mean, we'll kind of see how far they go. Do you think Gino can can really bounce back?
SPEAKER_02I think it is enough weapons. It depends on who's their offensive coordinator. Um I think Aaron Glenn's a bad head coach. I didn't even think about that when I was saying it, but I think their offense has a chance to be like pretty serviceable. Is that awesome? No. But serviceable? Sure. Offensive coordinator is Frank Reich, oh no. Give me the under. Frank Reich and and Aaron Glenn do not an over make. So unfortunate. I think Gino is gonna be potentially pretty good. But last time we saw Frank Reich coach, I believe, was that Panthers season he got fired year one with Bryce Young, with the owner throwing drinks at people.
SPEAKER_01Oh, was it really? I for I forgot about that.
SPEAKER_02That's so funny. Um, yeah. Still haven't used your locks. Uh, we're in the back half here. Will's really feeling the uh the AFC East and uh West here, I guess. All right, next up, Super Bowl runner up, Patriots, nine and a half. Over is juiced here, minus 145, and the under plus 110. Everything in my heart, in my mind, is saying the Pats are not going to have the season they did last year because their schedule isn't going to be so easy and they're not going to make the playoffs, but I could still see them winning 10 games. Uh, 10th easiest schedule in the NFL. So more in the middle, like not nearly uh the quality schedule that it had they had last year, but I want your thoughts before I make a decision.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, it's not it, it's definitely not the schedule they had last year, where they can just kind of coast through a lot of games. Um love the addition of AJ Brown and Romeo Dobbs, a lot offense to help out uh Drake May. Um they beefed up the offensive line a little bit in the draft, too. I'm I'm probably just leaning under because of strength of schedule, but I don't know. I I had them right at nine and eight. So that's kind of where I'm just barely leaning under, but I I wouldn't have met it.
SPEAKER_02I like the under two. Honestly, I'm shocked their strength of schedule is as high as it is. I guess it's because they get to play the Jets and Dolphins twice each. Yeah. It's four games, and then they have like Vegas, but like let's look at the start to the season. Seattle, Pittsburgh, but everybody should be healthy on Pittsburgh. So Seattle, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Buffalo. That's not an easy start. I could see them being behind the eight ball early. And then Vegas, New York, Jets, uh, Bears, and then Dolphins. That's their easiest stretch right there, where the Bears are like the only really tough game. So maybe they bounce back after a tough start. But then they go Green Bay, Detroit, Chargers, Buffalo again. I don't think they can win any of those games. That's where I'm saying. Where I was like, I just don't think they're on that level this year. Their offense should be better, but still questions about their left tackle. They bring in AJ Brown and Romeo Dobbs. Like, I like that in theory, but if they can't keep May healthy, I think everything broke right for them last year and they got embarrassed in the Super Bowl. I wouldn't be shocked if teams that are trying to model Seattle as is, like regardless of the Patriots, just bring that game plan into every Patriots game until they can solve it.
SPEAKER_00Yeah.
SPEAKER_02You know me, I'm not the biggest Josh McDaniels fan. He has been a good offensive coordinator in the league, but I think there could be some bumps. And that's what I'm looking at with these schedules where it's like, what are your tough stretches? And if a team gets down or there's an injury and you have a tough stretch, that can just that can make your life help. They're trying to get to 10 wins, get back to the playoffs. I think they're a year away from really figuring this out. Mike would hate us, but I think I'm gonna go under. Yeah, I'm with you there. It's just too easy of a regression candidate. You know? Could be wrong, but uh, I'm willing to die on that hill. All right. Dolphins, everybody's favorite. I want to bang the lock here, but I think I'm gonna save it for three and a half. Three and a half. Over is juiced, minus one twenty five, under plus one oh five. This is the worst roster in the NFL. They have the second hardest schedule in the NFL. Yeah. This is not lining up to be a good first season for Halfley and Malik Willis. I mean, this is the season where you suck and then you bring in the quarterback of the future. They have no receivers. Their defense is questioned. I did, I think I did this already. I'm having deja vu. Unless some of these receivers like really step up, some of the rookies that they brought in, I think they brought in three and R something. Or Devon A-chan like reaches another plane of existence. Like I think this is gonna be a bad offensive line with a so-so quarterback with one of the hardest schedules in the league. Like, I think they might go under three and a half. Teams like never go under three and a half. But what are your thoughts?
SPEAKER_01Yeah, uh I have them right at three wins, three and fourteen to the under. They'll probably scrape out a couple games, but I mean, how many of those are just Jets wins?
SPEAKER_02That is true. They get the Jets twice. It's shocking that the Dolphins have the 31st hardest or easiest schedule, and the Jets have the fourth. That's crazy. Yeah. Uh in the Super Bowl era, only teams have gone under three wins uh only 33 times, and they've gone under four wins 73 times. So it does happen a lot. The Raiders did go under three uh four wins last year. I thought we got to four, but I guess we won three. 2024, the Giants won three. Cardinals Commanders won three in 2023. Yeah, give me the under. Yeah. Give me the under. Worst roster in the NFL. One of the worst rosters I've seen since we've been doing this podcast at the start of the season. Like if they don't beat Vegas week one, like good luck finding a win on their schedule that isn't the Jets. And they might be worse than the Jets this year. Yeah. Dude, that schedule is tough. Let me read this out loud. Ignore the Vegas and the Jets. Because even if they won all those games, just three games. At Vegas, at San Francisco, home Chiefs, at Vikings, home Bengals, at Jets, home Patriots, home Lions, at Colts, at Bills, home Jets, at Broncos, home Bears, at Green Bay, home Chargers, home Buffalo, at Patriots. I see why that schedule is just that's impossible. And they don't get the privilege of playing themselves twice.
SPEAKER_00Yeah.
SPEAKER_02In that division. So maybe that is why there's a difference there. Yeah, both gone on. We've both gone three unders in the AFC East. So I think I can speak for both of us when I say the Bills at 10.5 seems like a mortal lock. Overjuiced minus 150. Under 10.5 plus 130. Bills are rocking with the I don't see their logo at all. Oh, the 14th easy schedule, so like right smacked up in the middle. I love over 11 and a half of plus 135. This is their year to take back the division and grab it by the throat. Yeah.
SPEAKER_01I'm gonna make this my first lock. It's also my favorite lock. I was waiting for it. Yeah. No, I I think they get at least five free wins from that AFC East. Because even if they split with the Patriots, they'll beat the the Dolphins and Jets pretty handily. And yeah, no, I really like the Bills this year. Really like what they've done in the offseason.
SPEAKER_02I want one where we lock it up together. I think I like this better than I like anything in the in the West. Maybe the Broncos nine and a half. I think that's gonna be one of your locks, I would imagine. Yeah, it is. I'm just gonna ride with the Bills for you because like we went under on every other team. Like it it makes sense to lock them up here. Yeah. New head coach, Josh Allen is a superhero. DJ Moore, I think it's gonna be amazing in that offense, and you know, pretty strong defense. So yeah, they should they should rock and roll in that division. For sure. I'll ride with you. All right. Uh on to my Raiders, AFC West. We're not doing the Raiders first. I don't know why I said it like that. Chargers sitting a nine and a half. We got three big ones in this division. Uh, two nine and a half and a ten and a half. Uh overs juice to minus 140. Under plus 120. Chargers come in at the 20th, easiest strength of schedule. So on the uh back end of the middle. Um, but Mike McDaniel, I was singing his praises earlier. This should be the best offense that he's gotten to coach in the NFL, maybe outside of like helping out with the 49ers some of those years. Good head coach. Hasn't worn out his welcome yet. Defense should be strong. Like, I don't I don't see how they go under nine and a half here. You got any thoughts on that?
SPEAKER_01I'm making this one my second lock. Wow. Um, yeah, I'm gonna go over that nine and a half mark for the Chargers, as long as their offensive line stays healthy. That was the big, the big knock for him last year. It's what what kept him out of a lot of games. I love that defense. And I I think that the sky's the limit to the for this offense.
SPEAKER_02So I don't want us to pick every game the exact same or every uh line here. Center already did go out with a potentially career-ending Pateler tendon tear. Are they gonna get snake bit again? Because that's the big question mark. Like these tackles go down, like this whole plan that they have could be out the window pretty quickly. Herbert could be getting, you know, blasted by opposing defenses. Do I just fade based on Chargers? General luck? Uh I'm not gonna, I'm not gonna do it here. I'll go over. Okay. Already made the case for him. All right. You can't go over on the Raiders. That's my that's my take. I'll go under. All right, perfect. Raiders sitting at five and a half. It's such a sad over under. Uh, minus 135 on the over, plus 115 on the under. I'm going over because we just gotta go. We gotta win six games, right? I'm kind of fine. If we don't, I'm happy. I thought about making this my last lock because then we're in the Jeremiah Smith running.
SPEAKER_00Yeah.
SPEAKER_02If you just take this team with uh Fernando Mendoza's actually a good NFL quarterback and bring in Jeremiah Smith, I still think we should trade the far farm for him if we're in like that 10 to 15 range and we can go up and get it, trade a next year's first, whatever, but it might even be hard to do that. He's like the best receiver prospect of all time, potentially. Sitting right smack dab in the middle at 13th, best strength of schedule. He just gotta go over, right?
SPEAKER_01He could fall to you guys, too. Um doubt. I think he goes top three. You think? I mean, there's gonna be a lot of quarterbacks coming out. I needy teams.
SPEAKER_02Everyone says that before this season happens and the combine and everything, and things shuffle around. Like I think he is such a top-of-the-line generational receiver talent, a team like the Raiders, or who else could use a wide receiver one like I don't know, the Ravens.
SPEAKER_00Yeah.
SPEAKER_02The the I don't even know. I'm just looking through the rest of the league. The 49er, like I I could see any team trading up to go get them. I think the Falcons did with Julio Jones back in the day. And like he's on that level of receiver prospects. If I'm not mistaken, the Falcons traded up. They might have had that pick. But uh, you're going under five and a half, give your take on why the Raiders suck.
SPEAKER_01Um, I just think it's gonna be a Kirk Cousin show until the bye week.
SPEAKER_00Yeah.
SPEAKER_01Um and yeah, I just you guys have some pieces you need. Uh that defense can't only be Max Crosby, but it will have to be until we have a good defense.
SPEAKER_02Clay Walker, I guess. We have like I I shouldn't say good. We have a lot of pieces on that defense. But yeah, I'm gonna go under. Not so bad. We got Teron Johnson from Buffalo. Uh Palomau, the safety is pretty good. Darren Porter, like our own guy, pretty good. Jeremy Chin, not the worst safety ever. Quiddy Pei, like a player. Nicobe Dean showed a lot in Philly. Uh Lualu was pretty good last year uh on the defensive line. Adam Butler, like there's guys. There's guys all over that uh team. Is it perfect now? Can we be middle of the road? Sure.
SPEAKER_00Yeah.
SPEAKER_02Um, yeah, uh Jeremia Smith, widely regarded as one of the best receiver prospects in modern college football history compared to legends like Calvin Johnson and Julio Jones. I think whatever the price is, we pay. If Fernando Mendoza, unless he actually implodes, and we might need to start looking at quarterbacks again or something, which I don't see happening. But like if that were the case, I I think it changes. But that it that is my thoughts on that. I I think um there's an other good receivers coming out as well. But it when you get a chance at a guy like that at your biggest hole of a position, like I think he can I think he can fall.
SPEAKER_01I think he can fall out of the top five if if uh quarterback needy teams are right there at the top. Um Dylan Stewart, our guy from South Carolina, is is touted as the top five pick this year. So there's some other guys that just may go above him because of need and yeah.
SPEAKER_02Dylan Stewart uh is gonna be a really good player, and that also would be a good Raiders pick, Owen Mun. Um, yeah, the Falcons had the 27th pick in the first round. Here's what they traded. The 27th, they traded uh 59th, which is a second rounder, 124, which is a fourth rounder, their first round pick in the next draft, and their fourth round pick in the next draft. So they gave a haul to move up to six. I don't even know if that would get you up to six nowadays.
SPEAKER_01Jags gave up two first to to go get Travis Hunter. That was just a couple of the Browns, and then yeah, and a second rounder and yeah. Yeah, a couple other stuff. So yeah, we yeah, no, that was only two spots, so yeah. And they drafted something like that.
SPEAKER_02What pick did Megatron draw?
SPEAKER_00Did he?
SPEAKER_02He was second, yeah. Yeah, but that's I think it's gonna be in that range. And that was like a really good draft with Julio Jones, I believe.
SPEAKER_00Mm-hmm as well.
SPEAKER_02All right. Uh this one is the most confusing one to me. I don't want us to just be in total locks, but the Chiefs at 10.5. Uh technically tied with nine and a half with the odds, but we're just gonna put them at 10.5. Um over 10 and a half plus 135, under minus 160. And then if you go to nine and a half, it's the exact same thing. Over isn't minus one sixty, under is plus one thirty-five. They're saying that the Chiefs are gonna win ten games.
SPEAKER_01That's that's that's what I think too, which is also kind of why I'm leaning Raiders under too. Um, but yeah. Is love the ten and a half number healthy? Like, do we question? Are we confirmed on that? He's gonna he's a competitor, so he's gonna go out there and play. He's probably gonna be limited uh mobility-wise.
SPEAKER_02But they brought Lajarius Sneed back. I was wondering when they're gonna do that when he got uh cut by the Titans. That's a that's a Patriots move back from their dynasty days. Um they got Monsor Delaney, so if Sneed can get back up to what he was when they were winning Super Bowls, I mean, that could be a pretty decent quarterback duo, but I'm not in love with their safeties. And Chris Jones getting old, had some uh motor issues last season. Linebackers should be pretty good. Offensive line, are we absolutely positive they're gonna be awesome? But if Mahomes is healthy, they got Kenneth Walker, and like I get I I think they could win the division. I mean, I we talked about this in the divisions thing. But to get to 11, that's tough. Are you going under?
SPEAKER_00I think so.
SPEAKER_02Do I just You're relying on a couple not wow? I might just go four overs in the AFC West. Go over. Best division in football.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I think uh you're they're relying on Kenneth Walker a lot, who is an injury-prone guy. Um Mahomes maybe not healthy coming off of this. Um, they need him to be uh mobile and back to what he was before he got hurt, so we'll see if we can. But yeah, I'm just gonna lean under. I I I think they still get that 9-10 win mark and are battling for the division, but I'm just gonna lean under because the the price is so high.
SPEAKER_02Is Mahomes even the guy that he was when they were in the Super Bowls? Probably. Yeah, no, me too. I agree. No, I'm just I'm just asking questions. Um you're going under. I want to go over. Go over. I really do. I think I might put the Broncos under. I gotta put somebody under. Chargers. I'm going, no what? I'm going. Chargers have always been my least favorite team. I'm going under on the Chargers. I'm going to go over on the Chiefs, and I'll go over with you on the Broncos. There you go. Okay. I had that, I couldn't have them all over. Doesn't make sense. All right. Speaking of those, Broncos, division winners from last year broke the Chiefs, what, seven, eight season uh division win streak. Obviously, the Chiefs had injuries, but they kind of fell apart before that. Uh the Broncos is sitting in nine and a half. Should have been in the Super Bowl last year if there wasn't a blizzard and their quarterback got hurt. Uh nine and a half is minus 135 at the over, under, plus 115. Uh, you're locking it up, so I'll let you take it away.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I mean, I'm gonna take the over and and make this my final lock. Um, I just think the the Broncos uh are in a different class than they have been in in recent years. I like Bo Knicks a lot. Um, I think that they added some crucial pieces on offense as well. I I love the the Jonah Coleman um addition this offseason. They're gonna have a kind of a three-headed monster, but that's how uh Sean Payton likes it. And uh yeah, bringing in Jalen Waddell, they'll have a true deep threat and uh true number one receiver in that room. Um and then I it's still one of the best defenses at football. So and best offensive line in football as well. So in the trenches, they're gonna win.
SPEAKER_02I'm going over, but their schedule is just so funky because they open the season on the hardest six-game stretch anybody has to open the season, all playoff teams from last year. Chiefs, Jags, Rams, 49ers, Chargers, Seahawks. Okay. So that's gonna be really tough. And then if you ignore the Chiefs and this stretch, this is their stretch after Cardinals, Chiefs, Panthers, Raiders, Steelers, Dolphins, Jets, Raiders. I forgot Raiders twice in that. And then they end the season with Bills, Patriots, Chargers. So if they're the team that you think they are, and a lot of people think they are, you know, kind of should have been the Super Bowl last year, they shouldn't have a problem with the top of the NFL because they they believe they're the top of the NFL. But man, that's a tough nine games like split up beginning of the end of the season. Yeah. And I guess that makes the middle eight games is the easiest stretch I think I've seen on any of these schedules that I've looked at. So, you know, they they split it, they go three and three, they go six and two in the easy stretch, and then they win one more game. You're sitting at I think that's ten wins. If I can do math, yeah, that's ten wins right there. So it's kind of set set up for them to be successful here, just with how easy of a stretch it is from week seven uh with their bye week included in this to week 15. Like, that's where they make their money. And then if they are four and two out of after that first six games, like, yeah, they're the Broncos that they were last year. But this schedule is gonna be a lot more difficult than it was last year, but it's just in the beginning and the end of the season. I'm also going over, but I just it's a very interesting just looking through all these schedules is a very interesting quirk. Yeah. There. Because they still have the 11th easiest schedule in the NFL with all of those tough games. So um anything else you want to say or ready to wrap it up?
SPEAKER_01Yeah. Yeah, we'll uh we'll be back this week. I don't know if it's tomorrow or Sunday, but we'll figure it out.
SPEAKER_02I'll see how I'm feeling after work. Okay. That's cool with you. Yeah. Either tomorrow or Sunday, we'll do the NFC. Uh we'll be back the week after, do our playoff previews. Maybe we'll do a little fantasy uh pod in there somewhere. But uh yeah, this is a lot of fun. And I'm just gonna go over the locks one more time. Uh, Will, you locked up the Bills over 10 and a half, the Chargers over 9.5, and the Broncos over nine and a half. So three playoff locks essentially there for you, uh, all overs. And uh I locked up the Ravens over 10 and a half and the Bills over 10 and a half with you. So two teams I think are going to be some of the best teams in the AFC, like they've been for the last little while here. And then I'm a big hater, so I locked up the Colts under eight and a half. And honestly, if I could double, triple, quadruple lock it up, I will, because I'll die in that hill. That this is a poorly built roster, uh, you know, with a coach on his last legs as their head coach. I'm not saying he's a bad head coach, I'm just saying I don't I don't like whatever they've been doing in Indianapolis. But uh yeah, we'll be back. Uh, we'd love you guys out there uh from me, Cole Smithson, the locksmith from Sick Willie Will Iinfelt the Witnessman in podcasting from all of you out there to make the podcast so special. We thank you. Peace. Peace.