306 // Lightning Stakes | Free Agents

Another year, more of us albeit in a diminished capacity. 

On The Drift, the self acclaimed biggest horse racing podcast on the Northside of Brisbane. We preview and review the Group 1 races across the Australian Thoroughbred Racing calendar, while providing best bets each week and a few you can put a line through. We have a light hearted look at the racing industry, talking about topics that racing ethusiasts care about.

If you're having a bet this Spring, take it to the Neds level: www.neds.com.au

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Transcript

SPEAKER_02: 0:00

I need to ask you a question.

SPEAKER_03: 0:01

Big curious choices.

SPEAKER_01: 0:25

Damn, jolly's dumb. James and start in the making. Jolly's dumb. Boltzmann. It's all this business. She's very smart and fast.

SPEAKER_02: 0:34

Mate, welcome back. Yay! Don't even know what season this is. Oh. Bit of a comeback season, you might say. Yeah. 2026. It is. Yeah. Been on parental leave. Yeah. Um, the kitties have been asking, where are we? You guys still doing the podcast? Yeah, seen a few of those comments, a few of those DMs. Uh we are. But uh bit of housekeeping, but we'll get to that. We'll get to the housekeeping. We'll get to the housekeeping. General, general, like, you know, fineries. How are you? Really well. How's the horse racing going? Good. Good. Um, look, typically, uh prior versions of Declan would um would would take the summer off, so to speak. Like, really, am I interested in Perth racing? No. Um, and then it would take me a while to warm up, and then to be honest, I'm still trying to get the hang of it by the blue time by the time the uh blue diamond comes around. That is not the case this year, Drifters. I reckon you did the same thing last year. Yeah, maybe. And you had a good, I reckon a career year last year. Oh, it was just an almighty fill-up. Um what do I have to show for it though? Nothing. Uh I've had my finger on the pulse, I'm not gonna lie, I'm more across the two-year-olds than what I typically am. I've I'm sick of not winning the slipper, mate. So my big goal this year, my big goal is to win the slipper. Okay. So I've been paying close attention to the two-year-olds. I think they're a pretty average bunch again, unfortunately. Really? I think so. I feel like all the good ones are getting injured though. Yeah, true. I th I yeah, I I think War Woven is a very good horse. Um, he should come back for the slipper. Gives me Storm Boy vibes, yeah, and it's not just the silks. Yeah, uh, but yeah, aside from that, life's good, can't complain. Um what about you? Oh, mate, likewise, you know, got a six six month-old son now. Yeah, daddy. Yeah, so little blue eyes, yeah. Little blue eyes, unlike his daddy. Um blonde hair like his daddy at the same age, though. Yeah, so blonde hair, blue eyes, real Aryan type, yeah, yeah. Some real strong German genes uh coming through. It actually is, yeah, genuine German genes, yeah, yeah, but mate, other than that, what's been happening? Um yeah, been playing some golf, um had a nice little fill up uh during the Magic Millions, which was nice due to a couple of my favourite Snitzanova and King Arusso, who why couldn't he be the better the spring or autumn or whenever I tipped him? Why couldn't he done that then? Like three years ago. Oh just to keep you on your toes more than anything else. Uh but I find you know what I the longer we were in this game, that the more I learned that if you see something in a horse, sometimes it you it might burn you two or three times, but when it's at the ten bucks, you have to stay on. No, and King has been tens several times. Yes, he has. Yeah, he's paid me back richly a couple of losses. So God bless the king. Um, so but bit of housekeeping. Uh I have three points. This podcast has been doing two episodes a week for God knows, three years, four years. There's 300 episodes. You can I encourage you. Actually, this is a good point by me. I encourage you to actually go into your local podcasting app, open up the podcast, and just play it whenever. Just so we can get the listens up. Yeah, yeah, you don't even have to listen to us.

SPEAKER_04: 4:16

Exactly.

SPEAKER_02: 4:17

Um, but we're dropping that back to one episode a week. No review podcasts, we'll just have the uh previews. Might do some stuff across uh socials um if we really feel the need uh to do any review stuff. Uh just as life is getting a bit more hectic for the both of us. Um so but yeah. My life's pretty chill. It's getting it's you know, it's getting there. My life's pretty chill, it's just you know. Um I wish we could do selective reviews where only if we both have a fill-up. They might well, we might have emergency like press conferences or something. Yeah, um, like Dave Portnoy. Yeah. Oh, tippy toes Portnoy stands on his tippy toes in every photo he's ever taken. I did not know that. Yeah, yeah. Once you see it, you can't answer it. That's like me, like I'm six foot in RMs. Yeah. Six foot in RMs. So we're going back to like the original days where we had one podcast a week, basically. Um, second thing, while we're dropping back in, uh, we're actually adding in two segments to our preview podcast as well a week as well, which will be exciting. One's centered around futures markets, and the other one will be a bit of fun as well. And lastly but not least, um our good the good people at NEDs have uh they are no longer with us for this year. Um, but we want to thank them for their support for what was nearly half a decade pretty much. So um no bad blood here. Uh might do some casual work from them from time to time, but um that just means that instead of looking at the markets just at NEDs, we'll be looking at the markets for the best price, regardless. Which a lot of the times it was at NEDS, but oh yeah, yeah. Uh I I think from an odds perspective, NEDs are as good as anyone out there, and yeah, we'd like to add to that. Uh no bad blood at all. Um very thankful for the partnership that we had with the good people at NEDs. Um but now if I if I find a better price for Tab or Team Blue, which is rare, team blue skint, honestly. Yeah, maybe we'll be a bit more unfiltered, but we're also that also means we're open for work. Uh yeah. So if you're if you're a dabble, if you're a tab, if you're a if you're a neds, if you're a lab broke, if you're a any if you're a pickle bet, uh if you're a Palmer bet, uh we are open for work. Um yeah. Better. Yeah, bet are. Um whomever you may be, uh, DMs are open. But oh now that that all that's out of the way, do we want to get started with one of our new segments? Yeah, let's get into it. We'll do them back to back. Yeah, I think I think we start with it because there's a few racing this weekend that you know I was looking at in the futures. Yeah. Alright, so we have whiteboards, both of us. Now, the podcaster in Australia loves a whiteboard, but the first one here, futures markets. So, what we're gonna do is hold ourselves accountable. Now, what we have to do is write it down in real time. So the horse, the race, and then the price, and then we'll see how we're actually comparison uh comparing come race day. So I'm just writing this down here. Mine's at double figures. What's yours at? Mine is healthy double figures. Healthy double figures. Okay, alright. Um I'm going to reveal mine first. Yeah. He's actually racing this weekend uh at Flemington. He's gone from 2,000 metres up to 2,500. Our guy, scary, in the Auckland Cup. Mate, 3,200 metre contest over in New Zealand where he's probably gonna be um versing some absolute dross. And he off through the line first up over 2,000. He was that was one of his bet runs. Oh mate, I thought it was good, and I think he's a live chance this weekend as well. He finally draws a gate, he's finally at a distance which suits at Flemington. And he's at Flemington. Um there's only one issue with him this weekend, and it's the jockey. We got a dog John McNeil. But he's he's about eight bucks, so I think I think he could do worse than scary at eight bucks this weekend. So 14 bucks, and the only the action the only places that you can actually get this is at meds and at Labroke's. So uh 14 bucks his um scary Auckland Cup. I love that. One of our guys. Um I think this is gonna be one of our girls. She's racing this weekend as well in the last uh at Flemington and the Francis Tresity Stakes. Um I've got a ticket for her at 26 bucks in the Coolmore Classic, and that's Philia, David Van Dyke trained horse, four-year-old mare. Haven't seen her since she started favourite in the Queensland Oaks, um, and she ran like eighth or ninth there. I don't think she's a stayer, I think she's a miler, um, and maybe she can stretch out to 2,000 metres. She's by all too hard. Uh, his most famous horse being alligator blood. He didn't want 2,000 metres, he was a miler through and through and through, wasn't he? Um I think she's been trolling up a bomb, she's been set uh for this prep, a nice long spell. I think there's something to this horse, Ethan Brown on as well this weekend. He's just about my favourite jockey at the moment, Ethan Brown. So she's in a fair few markets, that's why you're getting a decent price, but um I think that's a race for her. Okay. You love the Queensland Ixes a bit of a identifier, Jewish, yeah, uh gypsy goddess, this girl. Yeah, I just I find that um I find that the Queensland Winter Carnival is fantastic for so many reasons. Yeah, that's true. It's just a I think it's just a great form reference um for the next six months. Uh and when I think when David Van Dyke gets a good one, he he he knows how to look after him, he knows where to place him. Uh she'll be ready to go first up. Okay. Like her this weekend. I like that. Okay. Now, our second segment each week. I've written mine down already. So racing res resolutions. So basically, think of a new year's resolution. What do you want to give up? And us as punters, we need to be better at recognising poor trends. And for me, it's centered around one stable, and that is Chris Waller first up. I can't do it anymore. I refuse. Um now, obviously, some caveats here. You look at the is it the expressway this weekend? How many does he have? Oh so the key chances. Yeah. So the Express Beret, Spray 7 at Ramwick, he has Angel Capital, Jolly Star, Lady Shenandoah. Now, all firm in the market. Sorry, Chris, can't do it. And a lot of the time with Waller Horses as well, I feel like the ones that are a an attractive price, they just need a run. Yeah, I feel. Yep. Um, but yeah, Chris Waller first up, gonna give it a wide berth moving forward. Yeah, look, we we probably have different um what's the word that I'm looking for? Opinions. Um there's another word that I'm looking for, it's escaping me right now. Uh theories when it comes to Chris Waller. I think I agree with you to an extent, but how often do we see a Waller horse go bang first up off maybe one trial and then gets jammed into a two dollar favourite second up and does nothing? Or maybe runs a place, but it's probably disappointing against market expectations. Uh there's a good example of that this weekend we'll talk about. Um, but yeah, I've written down Walla second up after first up blitz. Blitz. I winks blitz. Um so I just I just find that sometimes you just leave them second up and maybe they'll blow out in futures market, and that third up or fourth up run is actually their grand final, and that's where you that's when you press the button. Yeah, um, but he's he's such a fascinating trainer, Chris Waller. There's a whole bunch of theories I've got around him, and you have to have a strong opinion with him because he's got so many fork end horses in so many big races. Um what's the one this weekend Autumn Glow's in the the Apollo? Might as well call it the bloody Chris Waller stake. I think he's got six horse in this on in the race. You don't like to see it. Linda Man, Wu-Ton Verney, Solar Spain, Autumn Glow, uh Eliana, and River of Stars. It's a lot. So does he tell all the connections of every horse apart from Autumn Glow, look, at best you're running for second this weekend? Probably. A lot of the some of them probably have uh they're in the same horses, you know. Yeah, true. Good stuff though, mate. Yeah, you know, work in progress. Some shopping. Yeah. Um, I think our audience will probably be more interested in the futures markets. Yeah, you'd hope so. Yeah, yeah, you'd hope so. Yeah, maybe we just give the resolutions the pun eventually. It'll be our decision.

unknown: 13:32

Yep. All right.

SPEAKER_02: 13:33

Hey, there's no outside forces influencing us. We don't know, it's payroll. No. Uh all right, let's get to let's start in Sydney. Uh, the Piero plate now. Um 1100 metres set waste penalties for the two-year-olds, which you don't typically see this early, I feel. Um, but you were hoping that Kieran Starr was going to run around in the millennium last week. I was, yeah. Uh I've got a big opinion of this horse, Kieran Starr, the stable, particularly Kieran himself. Um, I thought she ran super on debut. Um, finishing for third, finishing in third, drawing a nice gate here. And look, if if anything in the in the two-year-old races at this stage, you just probably want a bit of race experience. Um, best price for her at the moment's with uh team blue,$8.50. So I'll probably have a bet on her this weekend. Not in a big way, but um, you know, if she wins this, she's probably found her way into a golden slipper. So um good luck to the Sneasby racing colours. Yeah, no firm opinion for me in that race at all. Uh race six is the tab, light finger stakes, uh 1200 metres group two for the three-year-old Phillies. Um bit of speed up front here, Wu-Ton Lass, Nepo Baby, Sunrace, um, who's doing some stuff up here once upon a time. Savvy Halley, who was okay first up. Um, yeah, a bit apocalyptic at a dollar sixty with uh Tab I'm reading in the screen on front of me. Um obviously horse to beat here. Yeah, she is apocalyptic, no doubt. Uh interesting listening to uh the stable talking about her. There's probably gonna be a fork in the ride for her this prep. Um is she a sprinter, is she a miler? What's your gut tell you? I think she's a I think she's more of a sprinting type. I think so. Yeah, I think so. It's just it's just so lucrative, this um princess series though. It is, yeah. There's so much cash on the line. And pretty thin this year. So thin. Pretty thin. You always see, like, and you have a look at the previous winners of this race, right? Lady Shenandoah, Kimochi, In Secret, Fangirl, every Rose who ran behind Winx in a cox plate into third, flit Nikita Jane Elise. Like, that's some when you think of those horses, they're all great horses, but when you think of it in context that this is a three-year-old um uh restricted race against their own sex, yeah, like of course they're gonna win this race. Yeah, yeah. So I feel like if you had that thought with Apocalyptic, like, she'll win, she'll go out and win this. Yeah, yeah. She's incredibly likely, I think. Um, and you've got to remember, like, last prep, she's so lightly raced, she did all that in her second prep. So um I I think if anything, the the spell's gonna do wonders for her. She also had a trip down to Melbourne. I think the trip away will do wonders for her, so she should come out and win this. I like Sunrays though. I think um she was a little bit disappointing first start, but just had a blow, lacked a bit of fitness, maybe. And um, I think uh Kelly Schwatter just wanted to have that race up here in Queensland before sending her down south. So um you could do worse than 18 bucks with sun rays. She's 18 with Team Blue at the moment, so um maybe I'll have a little each way up. Okay, all right. Savvy Halley was a friend of mine once. Um wasn't disgraced at the Gold Coast by any means. Grafter Burners was well, the entire Brecky Creek was on Grafter Burners or that. He's a good horse. Yeah, he's alright. He's fine. Uh good horse. Yeah, but Savvy Halley, um, probably need to see her do it again. Um, I guess at the dollar 60, am I really gonna bet on apocalyptic? Probably not. Uh that's not the type of operator I am. Uh race seven is the expressway, 1200 metres, group two, set weights, penalties, uh, previous winners of this race. Magic time, king of Sparta. My guy. Overpass, Savitiano, Elise. Elise is like all over this. Um she's won, I think, three of the features in Sydney um during her career. She only raced for like two seasons. Yeah, phenomenal. Um, big, big girl. Big girl, really big girl. Yeah, uh, entropise artist. So again, good horses win this race. There's a few good horses in this race, though. We talked about three of them Angel Capital, Jolly Star, Lady Shannando. Who do you like at the three? Hmm. I like Angel Capital. I like Angel Capital. I've Jolly Star first up is is so dynamic, and she could blow these away. And she's showing us that the last few preps. Um, but I'm inclined to take$4.20 for Angel Capital um as opposed to the the$2 whatever with um with Jolly Star. So sorry, who's that with? Uh is it Palmer Bet? Colossal Bet. Colossal Bet. My apologies. Look, I'm I'm I'm gonna be honest, I'm probably gonna be betting uh mostly with Team Green this weekend, so I'm just gonna read the prices for Team Green. He's he's$3.90 um Angel Capital at the moment, so um I'm I'm happy to be with him. He he's he flies fresh as well. Uh Angel Capital. He's got a nice draw. Um the only issue for him is he's he needs to get a group one win this prep, right? So is he gonna be fully wound up or or is his target gonna be you know third up, fourth up, something else? If I was Chris Wall, I would have held him back a bit. Avoid this slot um and maybe run him two weeks before an all-aged into an all-aged. You know what's so inviting about him this weekend is the setways penalties as well. Because he's getting a kilo and a half basically off Jolly Star here from the Everest, and he only he was behind her by half at length. Draws a better barrier from her. Um that's probably the current deciding factor in it all. Yeah, because if you if if you if if you're on your uh Angel Capital resume is a group two win defeating multiple group one winners, Jolie Starring Lady Shenander, albeit a uh group two win, that looks pretty good to me. I'm not a breeding guy, you know? It looks pretty good, don't eat the group one. If it wasn't for a good horse and Jimmy Starr, he'd have one, but it doesn't.

SPEAKER_03: 20:17

So no, I'm keen on Agile Capital. How are you gonna play it?

SPEAKER_02: 20:20

I f I saw it similar, agile capital, but you know, fuck the resolutions. Uh I'll Jolly Starr in this situation. If she goes out and wins, so be it. My point of view. I kind of zig when everyone's uh I zag when everyone zigs with Jolly Starr. I kind of jump on when everyone's off and vice versa. Um so I think it's telling that J Mac's taking the ride um over Lady Shenandoah as well, so that's the the pick of the runners, I'd say. Um, but yeah, Angel Capital's got something a bit special out about him, and I think he is dynamic first up, undefeated. I do think that um at the separate weights of penalties he is weighted really well. Yep. Um race eight, the Apollo, good horses win this race too. Uh Fangirls won it twice, Animo, think it over, Colette, Elise, and Winx has also won this race. Crikey, where's the speed here? Linda Mann knows no other way. The instructor, Ruton Verney. Uh, then Angel Glow Glow will be uh Angel Glow? Autumn Glow will be right there with uh River of Stars as well. Uh Antino will be negative, so will Cheerwolf, Aliana, and Steffi will be they'll be fighting out for last place, I reckon. Yeah, yeah. Yeah.

SPEAKER_03: 21:44

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02: 21:45

What do you reckon? Autumn Glow's a dollar sixty with laddies.

SPEAKER_03: 21:50

She's short, yeah. I think she wins.

SPEAKER_02: 21:53

Yeah? I think she wins, yeah. Um this this is a pretty stacked race, obviously. There's some really good group one horses. Here, but I think out of all the horses in this race, she's the best over 1400 metres, and um and she gets that first up, and I also think she's just the best horse in this race. Uh I'm fascinated to see where she ends up, whether she um whether she gets to a Queen Elizabeth this prep. Um look, if if I was gonna steer you into a bet outside of Autumn Glow, like I I can't obviously get involved at those odds. Um Linda Mann had his best prep last prep. Yeah, and jumps to the lead here with hot Nash. Maybe Nash throws some caution to the wind, just so he's trying try and fucking catch me if you can't. Yeah, exactly. Yeah, fuck it. Um I thought Linda Mann, yeah. Like essentially four in a row. Oh, he got pipped by Fangirl uh on the line in the seven stakes, but his last two runs of the prep, or albeit against like pretty dog shit opposition. Um he was smashing the clock. He was smashing the clock, mate. He was was he the only horse to beat Sir Delius last prep? I think he was. I think he was. It's like Cerdelli's is the best horse in the country. Now the V's are tight. So yeah, Linda Mann could be the one if there is an upset here, if but Autumn Glow, obviously awfully hard to beat. Uh J Mac has to give her a good ride from Barry 9. Uh, but with six of the ten runners being Chris Waller horses, I think he'll be allowed to do that. Yeah. And also, like, if anyone can get a horse into the perfect spot from gate nine or ten, it's James McDonald. And and you know what, no one will even talk about it. Yeah, no. Because he just does it all the time. I only talk about it when I'm really keen on one that he's on and he doesn't win. Three wide the trip. I'm like, excuse me, James. Just because this is a benchmark 78 doesn't mean he doesn't give a flying. He doesn't. Um, the Trisca stakes, 1200 metres grew three for the mayors, handicap. Uh, previous winners here, inhibition, Samana, snap dancer. Um, so not a glowing honor board here. Um, but speed in the race looks to be lilac, uh, weeping woman as well, um, just feeling lucky is usually pretty handy as well. And supernordwest. Jering Gong uh has been they've been riding her forward. I think she's better in quiet, actually. Um, so probably not the right stable um to be getting that sort of operation out of her. Um different form lines coming out of this. I know you're a lilac guy, um but you're also a Lazura guy. So where are you heading? I don't know. I I think I I think I'd be inclined to to side with Lilac on this occasion just because of the weight relief. Like Lazura's got to carry six and a half more kilos, and I don't think she's that much better than Lilac. Um she's way more consistent, obviously, and a you know the Archibald stable and I'm not a massive fan. I th I I think could be the most overrated stable in the country. Um like who's their good horse? Darki? Yes. Mawanga. Mawanga, yeah, he was a good one. Uh West of Africa. Uh who was the who was the horse that I was on in the railway a couple of years ago? Um yeah, who's who's yeah, who has who hasn't run in the top four since? Top four. What was his name? What was his name? What is his name? Yeah, he's changed ownership, I know that. They got out of the casino. They got out of the casino with that horse. Yeah, anyway. Um so yeah, I like I like why I just force what's the thing up here that in the um in their silks that wins like once every 15 starts. He's okay. Uh Sunshine in Paris has retired, so she was good. She was good. She was propagory once then. Yeah, she was. Yeah. But you know they have as many horses like as the big, big stables. Yeah. They don't have as many good ones. No, they don't. I don't think a dolphin sent them any. No. I don't think Eulong did. No. Sent everyone else some. What did that tell you, Drifters? Do they have that grey two-year-old? Is that them? Who won the other week? No, that's Swaller. Okay. He Hydrix. Yeah, Hendrix? Yeah, Jimi Hendrix with he's with Chris. Okay. All along the watchtower. Okay. But uh, yeah, after yeah, after all that, I might have to back um lilac with Dylan Gibbons on a 53k load.

unknown: 26:56

Okay.

SPEAKER_02: 26:57

What about you? Who whose team are you in? Uh Camp. I've had some times for Tulleries before, Tuileries. Um, potentially a bit too short for her, though. Um, so I'll be having a look at her. Just feeling lucky, it's a bit of one of mine. Port Lockroy. Port Lockroy. Yeah. Yeah, forgettable. He's awfully forgettable. Um had a good prep last prep was uh Manal. Great prep. Yeah. She was the other one I was looking at. Yeah, so only beaten uh a length behind Steffi um in one of the biggest plungers you've ever seen in the in the invitation last year. Um, but before that, she was an absolute winning machine against very similar opposition here. So I reckon Manal um could be a nice little play at six bucks with team blue. All right, let's have a look at Flemington, unless you had anything else in Sydney. No, okay, good. Um race one is the Talender at Stakes. Now, this has a pretty good uh honors list. So Tentauras won this last year. Uh Shining Smile, Ardvark, um, Mahaba. Ingratiating Ole Kirk microphone. It's great on a list for for a two-year-old. It's like Ole Kirk's won a what a golden rose and a call field guineas. He's doing his best work at stud. Microphone won a size produce. He won a size produce. Ingratiating didn't win a group one, but he won multiple group twos and threes. Mahaba should have won a group one over in the should have won a win a bottom. Yeah. Uh he won a group two or three on Derby Day a couple of years ago. He did 2020. Oh no, we should have had him stupid. Uh I also bet on him at the Valley one night when I was there. Uh Ardvark haven't seen again, and Shawnee Smiles won for the Hayes, isn't he? He is, yeah. Um I I'll I'll be honest with you, I don't have any opinion. No, okay. Uh this this is a watch and learn race for me. Um look, Godolphin has a phenomenal record in this race. Uh and I'll have a uh keep an eye on the um the Autumn Sun Philly uh Autumn Lover to see how she goes because the stable likes her. Um good price in the market at the moment. If there's a little bit of specing, maybe I'll follow some people in, but um more of a watch and learn. Zambales uh for the Freedmen's did beat home your girl, uh Autumn Star, uh Kieran Starr, rather. Um last start as well, the toppy. So potentially a play there. Uh race three, the desirable stakes, 1400 meter listed set waste penalties for the three rolled Phillies, previous winners here, uh Chiller Cap, uh roll on high, Rosita Espiona won this, and um no restriction. Um for this race. I had Tango Jewel going forward with Mystic Rain and a bunch of others fighting for position. Um, you famously loved the 1400 metres. Oh, sorry, I'm looking at the wrong race.

SPEAKER_03: 30:12

Um this is for this is 1400 metres. It is.

SPEAKER_02: 30:16

Uh yeah, I'm just looking at the wrong race though. Like the horses I was talking about aren't in the race that we're talking about. So uh Macha Latte rather, Aaron Bay go forward with just a deal just behind them. Um are you looking at the right race? The desirable stakes, race three. Fuck me. Sorry, I'm sorry. You're in licorice all sorts. All right, there we go. Sassapiel going forward, Skywatcher privateer. Uh privateer. Wasn't there like a big boom about him? No, you're thinking of Profiteer. Profiteer. Big boom on a hundred-to-one horse. Um Sassapiel is a horse with a lot of promise. Um Olay Dancer is a fair horse too, so they're similar prices just because of the the weight difference, but I really like Sassapiel, and also Danny O'Brien of late has been absolutely flying. Um so I don't have the exact stats in front of me, unfortunately, but uh he's been he's been dominating the summer. Danny O'Brien, and and this one I watched her win a midweeker and absolutely brand him. Also by So you think so gotta love that. So I'd be I'd be keen to have her, but Ollie Dancer could come out and brand them. Um but I don't I know she's got the group one win, but it's it's not like she was a Philly last prep who was putting them to the sword uh every start. So maybe she'll need this to to wind up. Yeah, she I guess she proved something in that thousand guineas, though. Maybe it was more so uh tempo related around that, uh, where she was basically sitting outside of apocalyptic and they were just fighting it out right to the bitter end. Um but I think Olay Dance is a hell of a horse. I think two dollars is awfully short for her. Um, so Sassapiel, I think, in her first prep, fourth run, that's given me the ick a little bit. Um the pony for me is custom number three. I thought she was unlucky first up over the 1200 metres, where she's only gonna improve stepping up uh to the 1400. I think Flemington's a big tick too. Never been to the track. Um, she's going to eat that up, yum yum. Two trials, second trial was brilliant. First up, yeah, awfully unlucky. Um and I think she is gonna be a nice bet here. Six bucks is good bet. Um Jamie has been, as J Mac would say, our mate. She doesn't know. She doesn't know what she's doing at the moment. So Jamie needs to lift the game. That's not my words, that's his words.

SPEAKER_03: 32:57

No, no, no.

SPEAKER_02: 32:58

He's he's entitled to his opinion. Um it doesn't take much for her to turn the form around though. No. Well, half yours. Brilliant rides. Hey, it wasn't too long ago that um she carved up the Autumn Carnival. Remember Hey Asugi, Southport Tycoon? I remember all that. Carved up. Okay. Now race seven is the Elms handicap. Um, 1400 meters listed. Uh, wait for age. Uh so Rise at Dawn won this last year. The speed map here, Macha Latte goes forward from Aaron Bay, Justin Hill just behind, as I said just before, because I was previewing the wrong horses in the wrong race. Um, I've had some time for Machalate over the journey. Um so when he's at like midway grand final grade in Sydney. Um, but listed grade here, Frosty on board, um, not a bad run first up uh behind sandpaper at listed grade in Sydney. Potentially could be a play here, but keen to hear your thoughts. I found this bit a little bit tricky. I I I appreciate Sabaj coming up favourite um because he had a really good prep last time in. Um I don't know what it is about this stable though, when they've got a short price favourite. I I feel like I can't trust them. No way. Uh but he but he's it's not like he's$2, right? He's$3.80. So I could I could understand uh people being interested in in backing Sabaj. Cafe Millennium has been flying uh since he's been with the Haze table, but the Haze table isn't flying at the moment. Um I think they before last weekend their last sort of 30 or 40 metro runners that only had two winners, which is they're just not going well at the moment. Uh might have something to do with the fires at their property, unfortunately, but um they're usually a stable you can trust a lot. But just a few question marks there, but all it takes is one weekend to turn your form around. And a five-year-old Gelding might just be like, you know what, bruh? I don't need to be pampered. Just get me to the races and I'll do a job for you. Ready to go. Yeah. Ready to go. Which it you wouldn't usually say about cafe. No, you wouldn't. You wouldn't. But this stable, different horse. Absolutely. Um, too short for for Birdman. Um, but there's a horse here who first up record is abysmal, but uh, I like him over the the trip at Flemington and an almighty go for him on Derby Day, didn't eventuate, which was a shame. And that's number seven, an Ixudo. Never one first up, but uh really well placed here with a little bit of weight relief. Um I feel like he can run a good race here, and he's he's around double figures, so I'm probably gonna back him this weekend and Ixudo. Um I'd be happy if Sabaj comes out and brains him because it's probably a genuine group horse. We've got uh Sabaj. So happy to see that, but I'm I'm gonna take him on this weekend. I'm gonna sob my old mate matcha latte. Just because and matches are actually matcha lattes are actually in bokeh. They they are, and he's a he's a six-year-old gilding, so he's before his time. He he genuinely is matcha latte. Well, I just think they taste like grass. Yeah, but it's the health benefits, mate. He's all so you know, nor would he know. He'd probably love it, he probably would love it, yeah. Um race six, uh eight, rather, is the lightning stakes thousand meters group one wait for age contest. Previous winners here, Skybird, Imperatriz, Cool and Gatta, Home Affairs, Nature Strip. Um, no nature strip here. Uh, but not a bad little field. We have Baywok, uh Mahoona, military tycoon going forward, Barra Keel goes forward, my gladiola to sit off him. Tentauris at$2.40. What do you do with him? And then Benedetta. Just making up the numbers. Um Tentaurus,$2.40. First up,$1,000. D's short. Very short. He's short. Um last time he was at the races, he didn't even race. No, he didn't. He didn't. Um Sam Friedman came out and said that he's put on like 30 kilos. Maybe that's too much. But what if it's pure muscle? It never is. It never is with these cults. I reckon they said the same thing about Storm Boy. Yeah, they did. Yeah. Um you could see it in his in his boobies. You could. He was he was a thick colt. Fuck. Really sick. Um I always find this race really hard because you're basically you're you're framing a market, the bookies at least, by the looks of it, on what happened at the end of the spring. And if Tentaurus rocks up in Coolmore Derby Day mood, it puts his feel to the sword. But it's not 1200 metres, it's a thousand. And he's first up, and he wasn't fantastic first up last prep. No, but it's also the autumn, and he's a three-year-old cult in the autumn now, and it's like, well, has he has he already matured? Like, you know what I mean? So there's so many questions, and then if you're asking yourself that many questions and you're looking at$2.30, you have to ask yourself, is it worth diving in at that price? And if you think no, and it's like, okay, well, where am I where am I shopping then apart from that? And gigagick, I think, is probably around the right price. He wants further than a thousand metres, but he was back to his best in the spring. Two really good runs, two really good runs. He would have run really well in an Everest. He would he he would have he would have been top three top three, probably, top four, definitely. Um, Eric the Barrakeel. He's a thousand metre horse, he's a thousand metre horse down the strait. Don't know if that's his go. No, I think he likes to run at Mooney Valley, which is not in his favour currently. Benedetta got out of the casino with her, always have a soft spot for that girl. We spoke about ten torres. Babe Arc is an interesting one, interesting. I think he would have taken a lot of benefit from um going down to to Flemington and experiencing the strait for Derby Day last year.

unknown: 39:27

Huh.

SPEAKER_02: 39:28

And thousand metres, he leads pings and maybe just tries to go really fast. Bay Arked and Chris Waller knows how to do it in this race. I think he's an interesting one at$7.50. I'm I don't my mind's eye, if you if without seeing the result in front of you from the Coolmore, if you were if you were to ask me where did Baywark finish in the Coolmore, I would have said last. He's finished fourth. He he held he and he went out quick. Remember Huey Bowman was on him, I'm pretty sure. Was he? Adam Hippopotamus. Adam Hippopotamus was. Huey Bowman was on the previous year. Yeah. Bodyguard. Bodyguard when Switzerland came out. Random. Yeah. Um geez, can can find a cool more winner. Um, this isn't a cool mall though. This isn't a cool more, but I just slightly less weight, just pings the gates. I think he could be my pony this weekend, which is weird because he's I'm not I'm not a Bay Vark guy. And in and realistically, he's only had one really good race in his life. Golden Rose. And it was a really good race. So he's another one. Yeah, he was. Um Mahuna, the slipper winner. Don't know if she's gonna go on with it. Um so lightly raised. My gladiola's an interesting one. She loves the Flemington straight. Um, I also have a ticket for her in the new market at um 34s. My gladiola. That is that's good shopping. Great shopping. Um you may as well put that up. I should I should put that up. You're gonna put that up right now. I should put that up. Yep. Uh and look, she's she's ten dollars here. So if she if she runs anything worse than third, that 34s doesn't look like great shopping, but I think she runs top three. Yeah. And then she gets into the new market handicap with a good weight, and she's a Flemington straight horse if I've ever seen one. Yeah, no, I think the two I was I was weighing up because I agree. Tentauris to me is far too short at$2.40 for all the questions that you have in your your mind and and my mind as well. Um Bave Mark for for him to have his career peak over the 1400 metres. Uh, that's enough of a question mark for me as well. Uh Mahuna, no thanks. Uh Giga Kick, if he wins, so be it. Uh, but I think he'll be better out to 1200 meters as well. So my gladiola's the one I really found at the price.$12, um metres, sure, maybe a little bit soft, but in the Coolmall, um she had quite possibly, was it the Cool More? Uh yeah, in the Coolmore, she drew barrier one, not the place to be. Do yourselves a favour, Drifters. Watch a replay of that race and only have eyes for my Gladiola. She had to do a stack to come across from gate one. And guess who she was behind when um the race really came on? Tentaurus. And you don't want to be behind Tentauras at that stage of the race. And yeah, she she got beaten by him by a fair chunk, but she had the best run in the race outside of him, right? So she's now drawing a much better gate. Um, and I I think I think for her, a thousand metres at ten dollars versus tentaurus, a thousand metres, two dollars thirty, it's like, well, you can you can bet on her to place and you're probably getting a similar price, right? Yeah, if that's how you play, I don't I don't play that way, but just some advice, yeah. So my gladiola on top for me, I'll probably have a little bit of something on Barraqueel just in case. Um nothing though. Owes you nothing. Um I don't know how I'm gonna play the race yet, to be honest, but um Babe Bave Arks and my Gladiola are probably the ones that I'm tossing up. Would be happy to see Tentauras just raining because he's a three-year-old throbber, but we've we made our money on it.$2.50. Fuck.

unknown: 43:31

Fuck.

SPEAKER_02: 43:31

Not at it. Um race nine, the CSA's, uh, 1400 metres group three, set weights, penalties, Colts, Geldings, previous winners here. Sepals, uh, Riff Rocket, Elliptical, who's back here. Um is he? Yeah, Waller's got him. Yeah, so he had a Hong Kong soiree that did not pan out. He's back here. Yeah, let's send our horse to Chris Waller after he failed in Hong Kong because that's gonna really turn him around. Um, Pinstra. Striped and my guy tag it lower. Not bad. That's like a genuine. This is a group three. Yeah. This is that is a group two list. Yeah, absolutely. That's all I'd say. Seapal's group one winner, isn't he? Yep. Riff Rocket. One of the him and Haitotsu, probably the biggest. What could have been. Twocox played horses. Yeah. Elliptical group one winner, but wasn't he? No, he ran second. Yeah, okay. But sure. Hong Kong ruined him. Pinstrike group one winner. Yeah. Tagloid blue diamond winner. Good good good horses race this one. So I actually have found um doing that analysis of the previous winners as well. It's actually going like, okay, that's the profile horse I actually need to try and find in future. Yeah. It's actually helpful.

SPEAKER_03: 44:47

It is, yeah.

SPEAKER_02: 44:48

Because if I see that the winners list historically is Dross, then I can look it for some value if I don't like the fake. No, it's uh well said. Yeah. Now have a sure favourite here. He was sensational, 60s first up. Um surprised me a little bit, especially considering what the market did with him that day. I was on him. Spat him out. I was on him. Hope you were on him late. Um because you I was not. I think it was three bucks out to about four dollars fifty. I was yeah, I was on him, and it was just because I was looking at I was like Rosalind Star. Um but this is the horse I was talking about for for things resolutions, right? Chris Waller horse goes bang first up, and you're thinking, shit, this guy's just gonna do anything, this prep. Um and he and he comes here sub two dollars, and you're expecting him to come out and brain them. I wouldn't be surprised if he comes off the boil a little bit and then peaks again in the Australian Guinea. So I'm gonna take him on in this race. Um Mitch Friedman, he doesn't have a lot of horses full sobbing, doesn't have a lot of good ones, but I feel like he's got a pretty good one here in number nine, Asakura, um, coming out of Geelong and Tarang. But this horse has been a cut above um everyone else that he's raced against. Uh the race in Terrang, you know, Albeit it was the start of January, but there's been four winners uh from that race um since then. No winners since the Geelong win, but that was only a couple weeks ago, so you can forgive him for that. But um I like him and he he does remind me of seables a little bit because seables came from similar sort of a similar sort of background, um, came out and brained them, and he he looks a decent horse. So I'm gonna have a bet on him at six bucks. Um haven't looked at futures markets for him in the Aussie Guineas yet, but I probably should do that right now in case there's some good shopping to be had. Because if he's six bucks here and he wins, he won't be that price in the Aussie Guinea. So let me have a quick look see. Yeah, he was the one at a bit of a price that I found too. He's 11 bucks in the Australian Guinea, so sweet how some of these markets work. Because I'm gonna I'm gonna have that bet on Michael Adiola in the new market as well. That's that's silly. Whether she'll be the same price now. Um let's have a look see. We'll see. She's into 15s in the new market. Okay. There you go. It's good shopping. Yeah, um, yeah, I found the same one. So uh race 10 is the Francis Tresidy Steaks, 1400 meters group three for the Phillies and May's, waist penalties, chips in. I think she's a sharp, sharp, sharp horse. Uh the same feeling uh with Alpha Sophie last week. I was like, give me three bucks plus. Man, she drifted a little bit. I know she won by what two two and a half, two and a half. It doesn't make any sense. Yeah, that's crazy. That was jam. Observer was jam as well. Yeah, that was jam. Uh there wasn't much else, that was jam for me. Um trying to find, I was trying to find value and like six favourites won at Caulfield on the weekend. It's fucking hell. Um, number one, Philia. Oh, I think she's a sharp, sharp, sharp horse. We already spoke about her earlier on in the podcast. I've got a futures ticket for her and the Coolmore Classic. Will she go there? I'm not sure, but I think that's a perfect race. Um, she hasn't raced since uh last winter, been trolling up plenty. Uh Ethan Brown on from gate five, tick, tick, tick. Um there's some good horses in this race, don't get me wrong. Uh had road to our atari last start. I'm keen to understand how. Oh, I just just uh knew she'd be leading up and in. Um, and also her record in that race was like a win in two placings. That was like her fourth go in that race. She won this race last year. Did she? Rogue to Arataki. There you go. Yeah, um, she's$3.60, so we prefer her at twelves. Uh two darn discreet, great horse, had some wins on her the podcast. Wet tracker. Wet tracker, I feel. Um it's yeah, should be good three by this stage.

unknown: 49:02

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02: 49:02

I would imagine. I think so. So Philly is the one for me. I'm really, really keen to see how she goes on the weekend. I think she's a group one horse.

unknown: 49:08

Personally.

SPEAKER_02: 49:09

Yeah. And over 2200 metres, she was only beaten two and a half lengths as favourite. And that was that was at the end of a long prep. And that was her second ever prep as a three-year-old Philly. I think they put they went one too many. Yep. Yep. Um, so they started they've started her prep here on the 9th of December, uh, four trials in. Yep. So been nice and patient with her. Looks typically when the Van Dyke money's short, it's pretty it's reliable. And I think the the booking of eat of Ethan Brown, because he can he can pretty much write whatever he wants in Victoria at the moment, because there's no Mark, no Blake. Um Blake's injured. Blake's injured, and so's Mark. Oh, what'd Mark do? Uh Mark uh broke his he had a minor fracture in his tibia, maybe, uh in uh jump outs or whatever the hell they call him in Victoria. So weird. Um but he'll be back in a couple of weeks, I think. Whereas Blakeybill's gonna be a bit longer. Um if he if he can have the pick of any any ride in this race, there's there's a fair few um that he could probably choose to get on. There's no Ma horse in this race, so that probably helps. But that to me is it that shows intent um from both sides. So really keen to see how she goes. I think she wins comfortably on the weekend. She's a good enough price for me. Yeah, absolutely. Uh I agree with you. Um, so just thinking off season as well. So Via Sistina retired, she didn't come up in work. I saw today that Sir uh Sir Archie or Cool Archie been retired, uh has been retired. Um anyone else that I have forgotten? About the main ones? Yeah, the only two that come to mind. Yeah, yeah. There's probably more, but yeah. Um it'll be interesting, interesting autumn. Um really keen, really keen to see uh how the the four-year-old mares go. Keen to see how Treasure the Moment comes up in the futurity. If she if she goes bang first up, that'll be phenomenal. Um and whether whether she is a 2,000 metre horse or not, I'm not 100% sure yet. But I think you can forgive the back end of her uh prep in the spring with the with the colic setback and also four-year-old mare in the spring. I think it's not a very big horse either. Nah, and I had that I've had the this opinion of so many staying three-year-olds where I'm like, oh well, that horse doesn't want any any they don't want a lick of anything over 2,000 metres, and I just keep getting it wrong. Riff Rocket, um Observer in the Derby, um her in derby's or in uh Oaks's as well. So I think 2,000 metres she should be okay though.

SPEAKER_03: 51:53

Yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_02: 51:54

Um it's just against like the Tibity Top, maybe not. But Tibbity Top, where's she gonna race? Is she she gonna go to Sydney and take on Cerdelius? Like you're probably trying to keep her here, to be honest. Who's the best horse in Victoria at the moment over the a bit of a distance? Kitty Cat Tom. Yeah, how good was that? That was a nice little win by Kitty Cat. It was a good win because he he used to be a bit of a kitten in those situations, a tom kitten, you can say, but now he's roaring like a tiger. Yeah, he's a kitty cat tom. He's a tom man. Hey, they brained V8 into third, and the race smashed the clock. So that tells me when if you see all the horses at in the back of that field around third, fourth, fifth, sixth, if they rock up in a benchmark race, fucking launch. Um, and I think Feroce's in for a good prep because he ran so well. Um whereas Kitty Cat Tom, Aussie Cup, big Flemington, he's a Flemington horse. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Where's the all-star mile, will he, this year? Flemington, isn't it? Yeah, so we go back to back. I think he very well could. Very well could. Yeah, he was a great, yeah, he's a good boy. I was thinking, I was saying this to my wife in the car as we were listening to it. Because I heard uh Adam Olzansky say, Oh, Williams is going to the inside. Oh no, he's going to the outside. I'm like, oh no, that doesn't sound good. Because I got I wasn't watching it. And he's a big boy, Kitty Cat Tom. You don't want to hamper him. No, I'm like, but um I was saying afterwards, I'm like, I just have a real soft spot for that horse. I really like him. Yeah, good. You've got to have a favourite. Yeah, so um he might be one of my favourites, yeah. I I like Kitty Cat Tom. Um and and look after it, um Sam Friedman. He looked like the most relieved man in Australia. Like Godolphin grew one when he enters his stable. We want to get him right. So he he was okay in the spring, but probably a little bit disappointing. Kitty Cat. Well, he missed the first up runs. They were chasing that tart. Especially in the company it was racing against. Yeah, that was why it was a good bet that last week. He was um going back to Treasure the Moment quickly, one thing I'll remember for the rest of my life is Francesca Cumani talking about the size of her hooves um before that before that race, um, before the the champion stakes or the champion's mile, sorry, um on Champions Day, where it was pissing down Ray and she said, Look, um she's got really small hooves, which you know doesn't tell me that she's a wet tracker because obviously there's not going to be as much surface area when they're garping on the ground. I was like, I've never heard that before, Francesca. You are beautiful. Um Cheerwolf might start big. I reckon he would. Big hooves, big hooves. Yeah, but first up this weekend at whatever price is. Don't back him until he's like third or fourth up. Third or fourth. Fifth or six. Six seven. Uh all right, we'll be back next week. Um, yeah. Check the IG. Uh we might do some to camera work. Uh but yeah, we'll see you then. Hurroo. See ya drifters.