Will America Be the Last Country Standing? | Lyman Stone

In this return appearance on the podcast, demographer Lyman Stone joins Aaron Renn to discuss the latest global fertility and marriage trends as of 2026. While U.S. birth rates and marriage rates have shown relative stability at low levels, the picture elsewhere is far bleaker—sharp declines in East Asia and Eastern Europe, with South Korea hitting historic lows.

They explore the long-term consequences: aging societies, loss of dynamism, military vulnerabilities, and whether the United States could emerge as demographic "last man standing" in a world of collapsing birth rates. The conversation covers housing affordability, young men's declining economic prospects, marriage penalties in public policy, ineffective pronatalist interventions, and why cash incentives do work—but at a steep price. Stone also critiques "billionaire baby fetishes," calls for fixing marriage disincentives, and highlights practical ideas like family-friendly airports and better child tax credit design.

CHAPTERS
(00:00 – Introduction)
(00:25 – What’s changed in fertility/marriage trends recently?)
(02:19 – U.S. stability vs. global plunges (Eastern Europe, East Asia))
(04:05 – Underlying drivers aren’t reversing: gender polarization, young men’s economic status, housing)
(07:18 – Long-term implications: from military staffing crises to loss of community dynamism)
(09:51 – Why declining population feels bad even when GDP rises)
(13:48 – Aging societies, boomer interests, and anti-family tax policies)
(17:49 – Do cash incentives work? Yes—but expensive)
(21:30 – Immigration and AI as supposed fixes (and why they fall short))
(23:41 – America as potential “last man standing” in a century)
(27:12 – Rising elite fertility and the K-shaped economy’s impact on family formation)
(35:51 – Economic shifts delaying peak earnings and complicating mate selection)
(38:05 – Pronatalism: intact families matter, fixing marriage penalties, child tax credit reform)
(46:12 – Corporate interests, stay-at-home parents, and policy failures)
(49:43 – Critique of billionaire “sperm spamming” and surrogacy tourism)

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