Patterns & Paradigms | The Pattern Podcast
Patterns & Paradigms | The Pattern Podcast
Season 2 Episode 20: The Future of Commercial Development with Guy Leibler & Kevin Plunkett
How has the pandemic shaped the future of commercial development? This week we're looking at the future of commercial and industrial development, exploring the future of healthcare centers and models, and considering the future of residential development in response to the lessons of the COVID-19 pandemic.
This week's episode features Guy Leibler, President of Simone Healthcare Development, and Kevin Plunkett, Director of Strategic Initiatives at Simone Development.
We are experiencing a paradigm shift, a fundamental change in the way we usually do things. We are intentionally choosing to see the silver lining opportunity arises. We can shine a light on the things that weren't working well on those things that weren't really working at all, we can regroup reevaluate and re-engineer it's time to explore new patterns and paradigms those that inspire us to rise above the chaos and explore how the conditions of today and take us to a better tomorrow patterns and paradigms the pattern podcast from Hudson Valley pattern for progress. You're listening to season two, episode 20, the future of commercial development with your host pattern, president and CEO, Jonathan drop.
Speaker 2:Hi everyone, and welcome to patterns and paradigms. Our last guest, Chris silver has been a true innovator and developer within the programming and management of theaters in the Hudson Valley. We hope you enjoyed the episode. Please remember to subscribe to us at Apple podcasts or wherever you find your favorite podcasts. Please take a moment also to share an episode with a friend, um, go back and look in our library. The conversations is still relevant today. This week's bubble or trend the I word inflation. This is a big one. Are we headed to a prolonged period of rising prices? Clearly supply chain shortages in semiconductors lumber, even chlorine for pools are leading to forced increases in multiple areas for price. Each item has a story, but collectively they add up to weight inflation in prices that we have not seen in more than a decade. Well, this lead to the fed reserve, rethinking their strategy for keeping interest rates low. The good news is that there is demand that the economy seems to want to expand, but like everything else, if you have resources you can afford to pay more. But if you don't then inflation is just one more thing that is making your life harder bubble or trend. We will have to keep an eye on this. So I'm here with my partner pattern, Joe Cheika and with our guests today, being owners of over one plus acres of land near Stuart airport, which is our regional airport for the Hudson Valley. I wanted to use our time together to see if you had any thoughts about how do we energize the airport itself. Um, it's been more than a decade since the days when they had almost a million passengers a year. They're nowhere near that number and that's not due to the pandemic yet with a long runway and second to none highway access. What could we do, Joe? Well, you know, when you, when you think about buying a house, you think about three things, location, location, location. When I, when I think about Stuart, I think about cargo, cargo and cargo. So with the continued growth of the warehouse distribution centers, Amazon coming in, they're opening here in orange County, they're opening in Duchess County. And I say, opening, you look at these complexes, you can't measure it really in square feet, you have to measure them in acres. These things are 25 to 30 acres in size. They're enormous. So that amount of cargo coming through this region, I think that Stuart has been and will continue to be an amazing cargo hub. And if you continue to look sort of down the line of what I would say, some obvious fits aviation technology center, a flight school, manufacturing of aviation equipment, um, a food distribution hub. We are, we're so close to the black dirt region of orange County, where is an amazing op you know, they've been growing vegetables there for years. Joe, could you imagine a food hub there where you could, if you needed to hop on a plane to deliver something somewhere else, or you needed, you had the road infrastructure to get goods to anywhere you wanted to yeah, exactly. Or goods could fly in from other parts of the country and you could get them to the green market quickly in New York city, but I it's just positioned really, really well. And the last thought I had was our idea of creating a manufacturing center for modular homes. Why not build a smart technology center for modular home construction right there on the airport. Materials could fly in materials can be trucked in, and then you could ship actually the boxes back out on larger cargo planes. And if you do it with a, with a smart technology in mind that produces not just a construction job of laborers, putting together frames and things, but it could include things in technology. So the contractors working there could be developing apps that are somehow installed within the, within the modular homes themselves. And you could also obviously incorporate green building technologies. So those are some ideas for Stuart, Joe. I think that great. Um, you know, and, and if only there was a think tank for the Hudson Valley, you know, that could try to imagine what steward airport could look like in the future, but we'll save that for another day. Absolutely. Thanks JD. Alrighty. Our guests today are guide Leibler and Kevin Plunkett from the Simone development companies, Simone specializes in the development of commercial healthcare, industrial retail, and residential properties in the tri-state area. And of course, here in the Hudson Valley Simone's portfolio includes more than 100 properties and exceeds over 7 million square feet guy is the president for Simone healthcare development and brings more than 35 years of experience in the real estate industry. Kevin is their director of strategic initiatives. Kevin is a lawyer with vast experience in both the public and private sector guy. And Kevin are joining us to share their insights into where commercial development may be heading. Good morning guy. And good morning, Kevin, how are you both doing personally and, and when, and where was your aha moment that we were going to be in the thick of things?
Speaker 3:Uh, John, nice to see you and thank you for patterns, for progress, for bringing the Simone team on and, and the small health care team on and where guy Leibler and I are honored to be part of this podcast and part of the efforts of your great organization that I've worked with for so long. Um, you know, I, I, it really hit me John and March of 2020 when one of my colleagues from government who was about my age, took sick after having visited a doctor and, and for weeks was being intubated at a local hospital and unfortunately passed away. And I think, you know, the reality of, of what we were facing as a, as a small community, I live in Tarrytown where one of our residents had passed away from this virus and this pandemic. And then when we were facing as a, as a, as a region, as a state, as a, as a nation and as a world really hit home. So, um, if you were to say, ask me when my aha moment was, it was when I, I, I realized that the disease was, uh, was deadly, uh, with people close to me. So it was a, it was an awakening, I
Speaker 4:Would say that was a moment in time. No question about, sorry about that, Kevin. No problem guy.
Speaker 5:So, so for me, I, um, I was, um, in Los Angeles on the 26th and seventh and eighth of 2020, um, I was with a friend, uh, who runs, um, a global organization. And, um, she was having meetings in the Los Angeles office and spent the entire day, uh, on the phone with their offices in Hong Kong and were, she was hearing of just chaos, uh, within the community and, um, a lot of sick people, uh, and need for shipping, um, all kinds of PPE, uh, over, uh, to the Island, uh, from anywhere possible, uh, because people were becoming, uh, sick and, uh, and, and the conversations early on were, what are we going to do about our people and offices and how are we going to serve our clients? And, you know, for all of us who lived through the financial crisis of 20 2007 and eight and 1991, and the.com bust, uh, that was just about money. And we always say, you know, as long as you have your health, you got everything. And, and, um, it was that conversation that really hit that this was going to be different than anything else that I had experienced, uh, in my, in my business career. And, um, I underestimated, uh, what the, the depths of, of what this was going to become when, of course we realize when you, you drive, when I happened to have had a need to drive through, through Manhattan in March and April of last year, and there was no one on the streets, no one, uh, it was like a scifi movie to be a stores were boarded up, the streets were empty. And, um, it's just something that we could never have imagined. And, uh, you know, um, I give tremendous amount of credit, uh, to the healthcare industry and to the scientists, uh, who have really carried us through this, uh, uh, everybody else either was watching or got in the way, but congratulations to the healthcare workers, into the scientists, uh, for, for leading us through this.
Speaker 4:So let, let's talk about Simone and let's talk about what does your company do. Remember this is, this is a podcast, so we can't assume that our listeners know who Simone is. So let's there, and, and let's explain who you are, what your areas are in, in commercial development.
Speaker 5:Sure. So Sloan development companies is, is an organization that has been in business for more than 50 years. We are now in third generation, um, of, uh, family members, uh, uh, Patricia and Joanna Simone are the granddaughters of, of Pat Simone who founded the company. And Joe Simone is now our president, uh, and chief executive. Um, our, uh, business, uh, operates in, in the tri-state metropolitan region where we are now exploring opportunities in Florida, but we really are a New York, Connecticut, New Jersey organization, uh, with most of our business interest today in the warehouse and logistics sector. Uh, and we've been in the warehouse, uh, uh, sector since the beginning of, uh, the company's life, uh, warehousing in the Bronx and lower Westchester, which has now expanded, uh, throughout the tri-state region. And of course today, if you call it logistics, you can probably double the value of your properties. Um, and, um, I think that, uh, you know, we're very, uh, inquisitive. Uh, we, we are, uh, actively buying and have been buying more and more warehouse locations, and it seems whatever we, we get our hands on Amazon is about a half a step behind us. Uh, uh, either they're a competitor or they become a tenant. And, uh, the other act of, uh, sector for us as the healthcare industry where we've been engaged for more than 20 years in working with, uh, the, the larger, um, systems, uh, in the region, healthcare providers and the multi-specialty groups in, um, work with them to build out their ambulatory footprint. We know that, uh, whether it's by, by cost or, or by government, uh, uh, activity, uh, through legislation that the need to pull more and more of the services outside of the hospital, um, is important because of costs and, and, you know, fortunately because of technology and pharmacology, there are things that can be done equally as well, or better outside of the hospital building today. And as we've seen in the last year and a quarter with the COVID-19, uh, impact, um, doing certain, getting ambulatory surgery outside of the hospital is important because that's where the systems actually make money. Um, and if that had to be shut down as it was for many, many, many months, really from March through the third quarter of last year, uh, one, you and I can't have the procedures that we need. Uh, and two, the hospital can't generate the revenue that it needs, because it's very expensive to take care of someone in the medicine. When you go to the hospital, you're going through two doors effectively, you're going through the medicine door pneumonia for an example, that is a cost, that's a loser for a hospital, but when you and I are go in for a knee or a hip replacement that makes money, the hospital needs to make money on certain business lines to support all of the non profit generating businesses. There are only five or six business lines that make money. Everything else is either marginal or, or it costs money. So in order for the hospital to be healthy and survive, it needs to do surgery in order to take care of the non-surgical patients. And when they shut down the surgery, um, you know, that, that's why the ha the hospitals got really hit hard last year one, they couldn't do surgery. And then just the sheer cost of taking care of patients, um, uh, for COVID, whether it was just, uh, the, the increased costs of labor, uh, PPE over time burnout, you know, there were just so many factors that were involved,
Speaker 4:You know, that was, if I recall from, you know, serving on the regional control room, one of the most important, um, things that happened was the hospital said, you have got to let us do elected surgery in order to enable us to do the kind of things you're asking us to do to protect people. And so there was a trade off in very early on. They tried to say, well, as long as you had a certain amount of ICU beds, and maybe we can figure out how to let you do other kinds of work, but, um, your, your work in particular guy is in the healthcare area, I believe. And, and, um, so where do you think we're going post COVID because, you know, telehealth has become, um, we had to resort to it. Um, and then, you know, I've been listening to, uh, the world wall street journal every year, does this future of everything. So I've been listening to it the last couple of days, and, and there's a lot of implanting of technology to monitor diabetes, to monitor your heart, to try to say on a regular basis, you're okay. Or no, you need to get to a hospital. Is this going to change the business models for how much physical plant or capital, you know, construction needs to be done?
Speaker 5:Yeah. So on, on two levels, there will be more and more physical, um, places to go for your healthcare outside of the hospital. We've been doing this for a number of years, and I believe we're going to be doing this for another decade. Uh, just creating more and more retail type establishments for healthcare that you can get to, uh, you know, five or 10 or 15 minutes from your home that are certainly not institutional. They're very walked in. They're very friendly, you'll have an appointment, um, but you will not be in the hospital. I, I, I believe that hospitals are going to be a place for trauma for very sick people, for very specialized in high-end, uh, procedures, uh, high risk, uh, delivery for babies. And the rest of it, I think, is going to get pushed out more and more to ambulatory facilities that are either surgical or nonsurgical. Um, I do believe that that telehealth is here to stay. It was certainly became very valuable. We, I had a few tele-health, uh, appointments during the pandemic. I thought they were great. They will never replace going to see your doctor when necessary, but they will become a part, not a replacement in healthcare for seeing your doctor at the in-person, but a part of our healthcare. And I think that, you know, the, the, the pandemic has accelerated a lot of things. It certainly will accelerate the building of new facilities that are more sophisticated and safer and better mechanical systems, but it did, um, uh, give tele-health a real kick forward. Um, and, um, I think it's great. Um, I also, you know, I know that, uh, you know, what, where, where, where, what is the new waiting room, uh, to, to see the doctor? And the joke is it's the front seat of your car? Um, I think that's true in part, um, I took my dog to the vet last night. Of course, you don't bring the dog in any longer. Somebody comes out, gets the dog from the car and brings the dog back. I don't know if that's going to stay forever. I don't think so. I, I I've been going in, um, I have a monthly appointment. See my physician, uh, um, I go, I wait, you know, they're only sick, you know, every six chair is available. Um, I think as we're all vaccinated, we're going to return to a more normal, um, course of business. It won't be like it was in 2019 in December of 2019, but we will move back to a norm. We're going to go back to the Yankee game where the met game, uh, we're going to go back to theater on September 14th. You know, people, you know, Goldman Sachs says they want everybody back in the office in June. Um, we're going to get there. Um, but we'll get there a little bit differently and we're all going to become a germaphobe. Um, um, I never paid attention to that stuff, but I do now, uh, we're gonna wash our hands more. If somebody sneaks is we're going to walk away. Um, you know, we're, we're, we're, we're all going to live at a slightly higher level of, of, uh, of concern, but I do look forward to a more normal, the new normal, and I, you know, I know we all go what's that, and I don't know what it is, but we'll get where we'll find,
Speaker 3:You know, John one, one of the areas that, uh, that I'm following as the director of strategic initiatives for the Simone team is
Speaker 5:You're frozen. I hope not. Let's see.
Speaker 4:I can hear Kevin fine,
Speaker 3:That we're following I'm following is the federally qualified health center, Q H C's, um, which are, um, the, uh, clinics and outpatient facilities for a lot of the people in our inner cities and you're, and you're beginning to see the federal government, uh, through the American recovery act and in different, uh, other pots of money to support the, uh, the models that are turning up in some of our, our, our more dense areas, because people need healthcare, primary healthcare, uh, across the board. So we're beginning to see a number of the different health centers become more, uh, more involved in delivery of health services in the inner cities and the dense community. So I think you're going to see, as guy says, uh, uh, changing, uh, changing healthcare environment, um, in, in our, our whole region, uh, which includes some of the big cities that we all deal with in Westchester up in orange County, where you are. So I think there's, as guy says, there'll be a new normal, and we haven't gotten there yet. We're on our way to get there.
Speaker 4:Absolutely. But as, as developers, so there, it's hard to know, you know, guy, you gave that image back in, um, you know, March, April, may of last year of New York city being empty, but being in the development world and working in the tri-state region, is there concerns on your part about how Manhattan New York city comes back and how does that compare to let's say Westchester or other parts of the Hudson Valley?
Speaker 5:So of course we all know that everything's connected. Um, I believe that New York city will, um, return and will be vibrant once again. I think that as human beings, we, we want interaction. We want, um, stimulation, uh, which means restaurants and, and, and the theater and a museum. We want culture. Uh, we are, you know, we are a evolved people. Um, and, and, uh, um, I think we're all just jamming forward. I, I went out to dinner on Saturday night, um, and I was never so happy to sit at a bar, talk to the bartender, um, have a good time, have a few drinks, um, and pay my bill and, and, and, and put a big fat fat tip on it for the bartender who just was the nicest man who I, uh, who I just missed. I never met him before, but I missed him and it was so good to see him. Um, and I do think, and I'm, I'm, um, I'm looking forward to theater coming back and I'm looking forward to all of the restaurants opening, what I'm really looking forward to is to see all that. I can't say it all that darn plastic that separates all of us going away. Um, and I think as, as we're vaccinated, it will happen. Um, I can tell you here at someone development companies, we are extremely optimistic, uh, about coming back to business, to new opportunities, um, and, and finding them and helping our clients, um, fulfill their, their, their business needs, whether it's on the healthcare sector or the industrial sector. We think that there is a vibrancy that wants to return. Um, people are tired of working from home. Um, they're tired of eating sandwiches at their desk, uh, and, and we want to reengage, and I think that it will be, uh, very exciting for New York for Westchester and the Hudson Valley. I think what we've seen in, in, in residential, um, housing, uh, for our respective counties is exciting because, um, the folks, um, you know, not that you are Kevin and I did it, um, but we all know people who sold their homes, uh, over the last year, um, to younger people with younger children, which is great for the communities. It's great for the schools. It's great for the local merchants. Um, and I think that, um, it's part of the natural course. And I, I do believe there were a lot of people who, you know, I also, I I've, you know, we all have friends who live in Manhattan and I didn't see it, but I have friends who told me that the moving trucks were just lined up outside of the apartments buildings every day that people couldn't out of the city fast enough, but, and, and into Westchester and into Rockland County just to buy a house. But that means that there are a lot of apartments in New York that are available. And I really believe that over the next year, the rental apartments are going to get rented. Uh, the co-ops and the condos will find a new level of, of, for absorption. It's going to take a little bit of time, and yes, there, you know, in every, every business location, there are winners and losers. Um, and, uh, uh, um, you know, as Livan health Helms said, there are winners and losers and I'm South of the line. Um, but you know, there are those that are North of the line also, by the way. Yeah, I know is, I know that's why I gave you that because you would know it, you know, I chose that one selectively Jonathan, um, uh, that was for you. Um, but you're welcome, but, you know, there's this, there's, we're, we're going to get back to, to, uh, to another level, to a new place. And I think that, um, everybody's gonna find their spot and, uh, um, I'm glad I'm going to be able to participate in and it's going to be exciting.
Speaker 4:Well, right now, I think there's, there's no question the market that we've seen housing market, um, there is virtue there. We're getting to the point of no supply in the Hudson Valley. So winners and losers as people have moved out of the city. And, and by the way, I, I know this is no supply in the Hudson Valley. If we had an enormous number of people, 10,000 new families move up to the Hudson Valley, they'd never know it in New York city. So I'm not really worried that New York city, you know, it is to our benefit, but New York city you'd be fine. You know, guide, you mentioned that a lot of Simone's work is in warehouse and logistics. And right now there's a lot of talk about supply chain issues from lumbered to, um, even I was reading about chlorine for swimming pools is not available. Do you, is there an opportunity or, or how long, or it just has to work its way through the system, almost like the, uh, what was it, the gas pipelines, you know. Yeah.
Speaker 5:Yeah. I, I think that, you know, the big one of course is his computer chips that during, during for cars that during the pandemic, all of the factories turned their attention to making chips for laptops and zooms and computers and, and, uh, they stop making chips for cars. And now, you know, you can't get a new car, uh, because they're all shut down waiting for chips. Um, it will take some time, uh, for the supply chain, whether it's lumber, concrete glass. Um, uh, and I got a note from, from my pool, um, um, um, guy, uh, like two months ago telling me that, uh, a signup early open your pool early, there's a shortage of everything, uh, you know, chlorine and there's a shortage of everything in his business, but it's true for all of us. We've watched, um, uh, construction prices just go stupid crazy in the last three months. And I mean, I don't mean like a 5%. I mean, some things are doubling in price pipe, uh, and not, you know, just silly things and that's just supply chain and we will see that return to a more normal, but we've been getting 3% increases every year in, in, in construction costs. And I think this year we're probably going to be 5% and the things that have doubled will come back and, you know, it, it is shocking how valuable that, that, um, oil, the colonial oil pipeline is. I heard last night that the, you would need 10,000 tanker trucks a day, um, to equal the amount of oil that, that pipeline delivers every day. That's just shocking and phenomenal about how important our infrastructure is. And if we don't protect it, whether it's through physical improvements or from hacking, we just have to protect, uh, with reinvestment to our infrastructure and protected from cyber, um, uh, insecurity. But we have to make sure that those pipelines are, are, are physically, uh, improved every year. You know, it's no different than just, you know, every year making the improvements to your house or taking your car to the, to the mechanic. We need to take care of, of our infrastructure. We're very, um, um, you know, we're, we're, we're at a very, we're very sensitive, uh, to a disruption. Um, and we just have to recognize it in today's age.
Speaker 4:I want to make certain, we have time to fully discuss. So Simone properties zones over a hundred acres, right in the heart of the Hudson Valley, near Stewart airport pattern has for my 15 years been trying to figure out this, uh, this, this what finally energizes the Stuart airport or the area around it. It is just a great combination of transportation. There is, uh, an airport, uh, the highway system around it is first. Great. Um, any thoughts about what you might do with the a hundred plus acres there?
Speaker 5:Um, I'll take this one, please. Team made a commitment a few
Speaker 3:Years ago to the, to this, uh, Stuart airport. Um, as you know, you mentioned 15 years, I've been involved in discussions on a steward for, for 25 years. And, um, um, uh, before the pandemic, uh, the, the Simone team actually had received approval from the town of new Windsor to put up a phase one building, which was, uh, a hotel. Yeah. And they had a flag and we're ready to pull permits when, of course the pandemic hit and caused us to have to rethink and reevaluate what's what's best up there. Uh, one of the things guys mentioned, um, his warehouses, uh, logistic facilities, uh, as you, as you just mentioned, the, the, he couldn't have a, a better location for, uh, the, uh, uh, transportation sector. Uh, whether it be the road network, we have the longest, one of the longest runways at the world. I think it's due at airport. Uh, so you could bring in cargo planes. So we're, you know, we are still reevaluating post pandemic, and we're not post you Edward, we're coming out of it, hopefully for everybody, you know, what would be the best uses up there? We have a few hospital networks in that area. Montefiore came into, uh, to be part of St. Luke's. Um, so, you know, there may be need for medical offices, warehouses, uh, office buildings. Uh, you heard, I heard guys speaking about, you know, uh, a lot of the businesses may be rethinking about New York versus the suburbs, Jamie diamond. A few weeks ago, I spoke about JP Morgan chase, uh, may not have all of its space needs in the city that it had before. So, you know, it's really, it's really a moving target up there, but I think the word that you use, which is really the opposite word is, you know, the energy. I think, I think whether it be the residential market that you would get, I just spoke about, uh, in the suburbs and in the us or the Valley region or the, or the commercial market or the office market, or the healthcare market where we are guys, uh, has its finger on the pulse of what's happening. We think there's a lot of energy that's going to be feeding, uh, that the airport, one of the problems, one of the, it is a New York, New Jersey port authority airport. And when you have JFK and you have Newark and you have LaGuardia, and then you have steward, uh, you know, all of us could make a decision on where the emphasis is going to be for, for, for the big dollars that are needed, uh, to make sure the airport is a big success, but with the pandemic ending with, uh, uh, airlines returning to steward for commercial prac travel, um, we think, we think there's, there's an energy. That's the word for that airport? And we were bullish on, on the region, but bullish and orange County, uh, the new Windsor area. So, and that whole, that whole geographic area is something that Simone Simone team feels is going to be the future. As you mentioned it,
Speaker 4:That's, that's great news. Um, guy, I want to just get your take on Amazon for a minute. Cause you said, you know, every time they're either, right, you know, either a step behind you or, you know, you can always sort of feel them. So before the pandemic, there was a million square feet, um, planned for a Montgomery in orange County during the pandemic, um, Amazon added 600,000 square feet in Fishkill, I believe in Duchess County. And then what they call their last mile facilities in Putnam Westchester, I believe, and Rockland. So not so quietly, they have further their footprint for distribution and logistics and have been hiring, you know, there, you know, one of the problems right now in the workforce is like everybody is saying, we can't find people. I believe some people have chosen to go to an Amazon because it was a job. They were paying$15 an hour. And, um, how do you see this whole Amazon world playing out with competitors? So
Speaker 5:The Amazon story is, is just one that, that will go down in history about a crazy young man who had an idea. And he started with books. And I don't know if you know, the reason that he started with books. So the reason that Jeff Bezos started with books is just so basic and so simple. And so smart books that were unsold as part of the publishing model got returned to the publisher. He had no risk. So if you bought a hundred books and 80 of them got sold, he got to return the other 20. That was one reason. That's why books. And the second of course is they're non-perishable. So it was brilliant. Um, and Amazon has continued to build a model that functionally is unstoppable. Um, the only thing that can, that can and may stop Amazon will be the United States government for antitrust. But I think for any other reason, there is nothing that will stop Amazon. They have proven that they can get into any model of including food perishables and they will continue to build, um, uh, um, their footprint in all shapes and sizes. We even now we'll rent space to Amazon, not for warehouse put for trucks, truck parking, uh, because if, if you think about it, what do you see on the street? All those gray, those blue gray vans that are everywhere with a smiley face. So it's a model that will continue to grow. Um, I think there will be some track at some point in time. Um, I think they're trying to be good corporate citizens, and I put that in quotes because they bet they have to look like they're being corporate good corporate citizens, so they will get shut down. So that smiley face isn't there, you know, it's there for a reason. They want us, they want us all to think that they're our friends. Um, the other thing that we have to be aware of is that the bigger part of Amazon is, is this part that we don't see is that they're, they're the biggest cloud company, um, on the planet, you know, they, they support the back end for themselves and for everybody else, it's a very important part of their business and the new CTO that was just named to replace Jeff. Bezos's the man that ran that and built that. Um, I do believe that we're going to have a very strong retail sector, physical retail sector, but it's going to be more narrow. Um, and it's going to be restaurants, of course. Um, and it's going to be things that we want to go out and buy because we like to go out and buy them, whether it's a bottle of wine that we want to look at the label, or it's a piece of jewelry, you know, the aspirational PR um, uh, retail, um, but for everything else, um, even I'm buying it online and, and that's a big statement and I like to go, and I like to go to the, I like to go to the supermarket, I enjoy it. I like to go pick up my own vegetables and, and, uh, um, know, go, go, go to the wine shop and buy that bottle of Macallan or whatever I want that day. But my daughter, who's 26 buys all of her groceries online. Doesn't really care about going to a storage too, darn busy. Um, so, you know, as I pass on, you know, over time and Kevin and I, you know, get put in the home, um, you know, where someone will bring us our food and we'll dribble, dribble it down on our shirts. Uh, I really do question about the next generation. And I think that we're going to see more and more mixed use where we're going to want to go to that restaurant. Um, uh, and perhaps the wine shop will be next door. What we're going to want to go for aspirational shopping, to
Speaker 3:Not buy the pair of jeans online that get delivered. Because, you know, we bought this, I'm the same size as I was a year ago, and I can go to Levi's dot com, but I do want to go buy a suit, or I do want to go buy a birthday gift for a friend. Um, and I want to see it and I want to have it wrapped, and I want to give it to him or her personally. So we all have to evolve and we can't be stuck in our ways. And we can't say, well, that's how I used to do it. We better evolve where we're all going to be left behind. And that's what I'm trying to do for our business every day. And I, and I'm trying to do it for myself as a person every day as well, uh, where we will be left behind professionally personally evolve. We just have to evolve. One thing, one thing that I know that patterns is very involved with, which I think is going to be a positive impact of all the changes that we've talked about today. And you've mentioned is I think the environment's going to be better. You know, there'll be less cars, uh, you know, the movement already to electric vehicles. I think, I think, I think there's going to be some positive things coming out of what, what guys going to do, the one bullet. And I think that's good for the planet and it's good for all of us in the next generation. So when guy and I were together in that nursing home, that guy has put us in the next generation will be enjoying a little bit better, a little bit better planet experience that maybe, you know, we we've experienced because of the industrial revolutions that have happened.
Speaker 4:So look, I think both of you want it, it seems like there's a natural, uh, effort here to end this conversation on an upbeat note, both from you, Kevin and guy with you saying the need to evolve. And I couldn't agree with you more that, um, there there's something about what just happened over the last 14 months that accelerated the integration of technology. And everyone says, you know, what would have taken 10 years took one year, you know? And I think you're right, that, that the whole notion of evolving, accepting, you know, do you guys use cash? I haven't used cash in ages. You know, I, I don't even know what it look, you know, it's like, Ooh, what's cash. But, um, I want to give the last word to both of you. So anything else that you want to put on the table as part of the conversation? Or are you both okay.
Speaker 3:Uh, okay. Uh, yes, I am happy to end on a, on a good note. I, I, I do think, um, the next bunch of years could be quite good and I agree with Kevin, we're going to live better, live more healthy. And if, uh, uh, the guys in Washington, you know, just don't screw it up, we'll be fine, John, I just want to thank you and your team. I, as I said in the beginning, I've had the pleasure of working with the patterns for many years and with you and your team, and please keep up the good work. You keep people on your, on their toes up there. You know, you really, you really, uh, you really are on the cutting edge of, of the issues that are going to make a difference in the future. So thanks for what you're doing and thanks for this opportunity for Simone development companies, Samoan healthcare, and for all of us to get our, our thoughts out on, on where we're going to be in the future. Yeah. Well said,
Speaker 1:Thanks, Kevin. And thanks guy. Um, and thank you to Simone. Um, this Jonathan dropped in on behalf of patterns and paradigms and everyone have a good day. Thank you for tuning in to patterns and paradigms the pattern podcast. For more information about this episode, visit our website pattern for progress.org forward slash podcast.