Main Street Business

#608 Contrarian Real Estate investing in 2026 with Jamison Manwaring

• Mark J Kohler and Mat Sorensen • Episode 608

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We challenge the fear cycle around real estate and show why disciplined contrarian buying can work in 2026. We walk through real multifamily distress, market absorption, and why basis and debt terms now matter more than flashy rent growth.

• rates rising and bridge debt resets driving distress in capital stacks
• absorption trends in Phoenix versus oversupply in Austin and Dallas
• why coastal markets improved due to scarce new supply
• buying stabilized, well‑located multifamily at 30–40% discounts
• fixed agency debt and conservative leverage restoring cash flow
• where single‑family rentals struggle against concessions
• submarket selection and vintage risk to avoid capex traps
• office at deep discounts to replacement and reposition strategies
• timing the cycle with data, not emotion
• our plan to expand beyond Phoenix while staying selective

You can learn more about Jamison and Neighborhood Ventures Here - https://neighborhood.ventures/


Please make sure you are subscribed to the podcast or the YouTube channel where these interviews play as well. Give it thumbs up, five stars, whatever you can do to help spread the good word.


Setting The Contrarian Stage

SPEAKER_00

Welcome everyone to the Main Street Business Podcast. This is Matt Sornson and I'm joined in studio by Jameson Mannoring. I'm going to introduce him here in a second. But what we're going to be talking about today is contrarian real estate investing in 2026. Now, if you've been a real estate investor in the market in the last few years, you might not be doing so great. Real estate investors have had a tough time. Is 2026 going to be a breakout year? What are the opportunities there? I'm going to talk to Jamison and he's kind of got some contrarian point of views that you might be scratching your head thinking, why is this guy investing so much in real estate right now? So we're going to unpack that. And I'm excited to have Jamison here because he's really someone every day out in the real estate industry. He's CEO of Neighborhood Ventures. I've invested in their deals. Many other investors, they have over a thousand self-directed IRA investors that have invested in their deals, mostly here in the Phoenix area, going other places. We're going to get into that. But Jamison, why do you feel like a contrarian right now in real estate? Or what are some of the contrarian real estate investing themes you think we're going to have in 2026?

Zero Rates, Inflation, And The Hangover

SPEAKER_01

Well, yeah, man, we're coming off of uh you know record increases in interest rates over the last uh three and four years uh due to the inflation that we saw uh post uh COVID with all the the you know 4 trillion of in s of cash that was put in the system. Yeah.

SPEAKER_00

We have some zerp some zero interest rate you know digestion right now.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, and we love those zero interest rates in 2020 and 2021. Uh uh rents went up 20 percent in in the Arizona markets uh in those years. Values were at all-time highs. Um really looking back at it now, the smart money sold assets during that time when rates were so low and did extremely well. Um there were also groups that that bought assets in that period of time and expected things to continue to go up um in a linear fashion. And uh now those groups are really hurting. And uh the uh the interest rates uh were the main driver of that. The second driver of that, at least for multifamily, was a lot of new supply. Uh developers got really excited about these low interest rates. They got excited about the fact that we could see more people would be renting than owning because uh the costs of housing had gone up so much. So people built a lot, especially in the the high gross sunbelt markets.

SPEAKER_00

Plus, job growth was strong. You know, right now job growth numbers are okay, but not like they were, you know, four or five years ago.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah. And many of those groups just uh in retrospect expected things to just keep ticking along and and and their you know pro forma rents were much higher than where they're at today. Yeah. So we're real estate is cyclical. And what's exciting about that for me coming off of um my prior career on Wall Street, where you know, uh I covered software stocks, and that was really uh driven by you know the growth of the company, um, their continued growth, finally, you know, their profitability. That that's how those those assets go up in value. Um and it's hard sometimes to to come in and buy stuff at a good price in that in that space because you're you're not exactly sure uh where the bottom is. Um uh with real estate, it's it's always been cyclical.

Cycles Create Openings For Buyers

SPEAKER_01

So we we know we've seen this before, we've seen these dynamics before, and um, and that really provides an opportunity that if you can be credit contrarian, if you can do your research and understand what's going on, uh you can really do extremely well if you can take that viewpoint. Um and uh and then you you buy those assets when they're they're undervalued, and uh you can do really well when the market comes back.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, I mean a lot of people have kind of soured on real estate in general. Many people have kind of had some stagnant returns. A lot of people have lost money that kind of got over-leveraged and didn't manage their debt properly. And so I think there's a lot of people scared right now to invest in real estate. Um, and you know, Warren Buffett, I think it's Warren Buffett, or he stole this from someone else, is famous for saying, be greedy when others are fearful, and be fearful when others are greedy. And to your point earlier about selling the smart money sold when we were at zero interest rates, I mean, they were fearful when everyone was greedy back at that time point in time. So, but it is contrarian for people just like, you know, and how they think to be like, and even just we see it now is you know, the excitement of real estate investors and just you know, from our clients that are coming for tax planning or KQO stores or open up accounts at directed IRA. I mean, real estate was so hot four years ago, and now it's it's not cold, but it's not so hot. So,

Nearing Bottom: Green Shoots Appear

SPEAKER_00

how do you know when that timing is right, though? Like, you know, sometimes like how do I know if I'm at the bottom? How do we know where we're at in the cycle now? Because you guys have put a lot of money in this last year. Um, you were the largest buyer in 2025 in the state of Arizona, yeah, from what I understand, friend multifamily, right?

SPEAKER_01

Yep, we were.

SPEAKER_00

And so what gives you guys conviction right now that it's the right time?

SPEAKER_01

Well, we just had our largest industry conference uh NHMC in uh Las Vegas a few weeks ago. And so it gives us an opportunity to talk about, to talk to other uh operators from across the country, brokers. And the the really clear um message that came out with a lot of the smart people in the industry is boy, if you can buy right now, um uh we we see that the fundamentals are are strong and getting stronger, uh, but there's a lot of um there's some trepidation and there's also um uh a lack of capital because there's some fatigue from these buyers uh and from these investors over the past few years. Yeah, the banks and and today it's it's uh easy to get the debt, it's harder to get the equity. And but uh if you can put a deal together and buy it today's values, uh uh the the smart folks in our industry all see that it's a tremendous opportunity, similar to right after the GFC in tw in 2009, 2010. Um and it's it's always impossible to know when things come back, but we're starting to feel like uh we're near that bottom because we have what you could call green shoots, you know, when you start to see some some signs of life. And one of those big signs of life uh for the apartment industry is the absorption of all the new construction. So we had a record year last year in absorption. It even topped

Anatomy Of A Distressed Deal

SPEAKER_01

uh aggressive estimates. And what that means is that more people rented and took these new apartments than even than we expected. Um uh talking to one of the really smart people that covers the the Phoenix market last year, you know, we have in in the Phoenix market in the last three years, about 20,000 new apartment units have come out every year. And traditionally we have about half of that. Yeah, and that generally uh meets our demand. But last year we had 20,000 and we had almost 19,000 absorbed in one year in the Phoenix market. So the fundamentals are strong when you um when you dig into the fundamentals, especially of multifamily. Um and at the same time, right now, we have operators, and these are the operators who tend to be the folks that come in and purchase uh like us who are dealing with their problems. They're they're trying to work out deals that they bought a few years ago at the peak of the market. They're trying to bring in additional capital into those deals. And so for us as a contrarian right now, it's the most exciting time uh for me and my uh real estate uh career because we can go out and buy great deals, well-located assets. We're not buying, you know, uh stuff on in the in the wrong neighborhoods, we're buying stuff in the great neighborhoods at a 30 to 40 percent discount. And um, and so I'm I wake up every day kind of excited to see what's the next deal that we can we can uh tap into.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah. So I mean you guys are focused in multifamily. We can talk about some other real estate asset classes here in a second. Um, but let's let's stick on multifamily here for a minute. And then I want to talk about markets here um as well, like different markets to be investing. I know you're in the Phoenix market, but going to other markets, and what should investors think about when they're thinking of what market to go invest into? But let's come back to that here in a second. Let's stay just on this multifamily. So um the deals you guys have been doing, though, have all been distressed, right? Even you've got a deal going right now, another distress deal.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, right. Yeah, and these are distressed deals in that um from a financial standpoint, their their capital stack is distressed. But the buildings um are in the in the case of the building we're buying today, it's fully occupied, 90, 95% occupied. Yeah, it has two, three, and four bedroom units. It's near Biltmore. Anyone that knows the Arizona market knows this is one of the most uh sought after

Equity Fatigue And Winning Bids

SPEAKER_01

neighborhoods in the whole valley. And the buyer just they bought it uh at the peak of the market for 27 million. They put 3 million capex into it, so their their total cost is 30 million. And in a normal market, that would have been just fine. But what's happened is their floating rate bridge debt went from five and a half percent to eleven percent.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

And to get out of that debt, they to to put permanent financing on it with with the agencies, Fannie Freddie, or with a bank, they would have to come in with with four or five million in a cash-in refinance, not cash out. It's going the wrong way.

SPEAKER_00

I know you mentioned a cash-in re refinance, and I'm like, that seems like the opposite of what we're going for here. We want to get cash out, we want to get the equity out. We're kind we're cashing in. Um that's the banks love the cash in, I guess.

SPEAKER_01

And and that's what's required because the values have come down.

SPEAKER_00

And they're not gonna do that.

SPEAKER_01

So then well, they they haven't made full mortgage payments for about eight months.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

Their their investors are looking at it as um, okay, we could put in another four or five million, but is this gonna be good money after bad?

SPEAKER_00

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

And they decided, no, we were we're not gonna do a cash-in, we'll just take it to market. So we we've started talking with them about six months ago, and we said, based on where the market's at right now, we'll pay 19 for the 19 million for this asset. And they're 30 million in, they have a loan, it's about 22 million. Yeah. So we knew they'd have to get their lender involved and do a short sell. But we said 19 is our number, and they came back and they said, Well, how about 22? And we said no. Yeah. And they came back a month later and said, Okay, how about 21? We said no. And they came back a few weeks later and said, How about 20? We said, We won't do 20, we'll do 19.5. Uh-huh. But this is that we're not negotiating anymore. And they agreed to 19.5, which uh we we um it was well within our strike price of what we're wanted to be. But that's the sort of deal that uh folks now when they see it, it all makes sense to them, folks in our industry. But it's still um you have to be a bit contrarian right now because uh of the fear. Um they call it the great hesitation. You know, we've heard about the the great resignation, but right now, uh coming out of our conference, that's folks are just kind of sitting on their hands. We're being a bit more aggressive, um, a bit more contrarian. Um, and we our investors also see that and they're aligned with us. Yeah, and that's part of why we're winning these deals, is because it's hard for other groups to raise equity right now. And our investors are aligned with us, and this deal that we are having, we're oversubscribed with investors. So um they they see the opportunity right now as well.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah.

Single‑Family Versus Multifamily Dynamics

SPEAKER_00

So um it's I think it's interesting for single family investors out there right now. You know, I I don't know that the single family residential real estate market is feeling the same pain from the debt shift. I think a lot of those investors didn't get this bridge debt financing. There's some of that, of course, and some speculative investors, of course, on just like single-family real estate investors. They might have been getting fixed rate debt or but but it was very, very popular over the last five to seven years for multifamily operators, particularly on a lot of new entrants in the 50 unit to 200 unit, getting this bridge debt financing that that floated, right?

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, so it's kind of reminiscent of the great financial crisis with variable rate arm mortgages for two years, and then all of a sudden it goes adjustable. And that's really what drove that.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, and it was like the perfect storm then for multifamily market, where the the fundamentals, as you've said, of multifamily is still strong, the demand is still strong, there's good properties. It was just this financial underwriting and this debt restructuring and going from ZERP zero interest rate area era to you know the Fed hiking rates and starting to peel it back right now. Um, but um, let's talk about residential real estate investors, though. I know you get insights onto that. You work with lots of your investors are investing in their own residential real estate investor deals. You have thousands of them, and um I know you're following that market. But is there any trends you're seeing on just the regular single family residential real estate? It really seems um, I would say opportunistic is the best way. Like it's not from my perspective, and what I just see is it's more active investors that are finding the deals and opportunities as opposed to the passive investor just getting a turnkey residential real estate property. I mean, what do you see out there?

SPEAKER_01

It's really hard to make those deals pencil as a rental because uh a single family residence right now, uh, it's more expensive to uh to own than to rent. So what we're seeing from a lot of the owners who I know is they they would like love to sell their their house, but they don't feel like now is a great time to sell the rental house. But they're getting much lower rents than they would hope for because uh the the rental market right now

Supply, Absorption, And Market Nuance

SPEAKER_01

is is uh uh is struggling because of all the new supply. And and the other part that we see is this kind of trickle down effect from all the new apartments that are being built. They might be two or three bedroom, but they're brand new, they have great amenities, and then they're offering like two months free rent. So you're paying you you get your first two months free, you might be paying $2,500 for a two-bed, two-bath, yeah, but you get your first two months free. So if you amortize that over you know the 12 months, you're getting such a great deal. So um all of all of that is has impacted the the rental pool right now. The absorption has been strong, which we just talked about. So I do think that's gonna end soon in a market like Phoenix. But there are other markets like Austin, like Dallas. He talked to the brokers on the ground there, and it's tough to know when that abs when that ends because they haven't seen the demand that we saw in Phoenix of new people moving in. They still have people moving in, but they overbuilt.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

So there's gonna be a longer tell on some of those markets. Um, and that will affect single-family uh homes across those markets. But most of the markets that are struggling right now were Sunbelt markets that were oversupplied. A lot of the stuff in the Midwest is actually doing fine. They actually actually saw rent growth because they weren't oversupplied. Um, and some of the coastal markets are doing well. And going back to our our theme of contrarian investing, two years ago, no one wanted to invest in the coastal markets. They didn't want to invest in San Francisco, they want to invest in DC, uh, they didn't want to invest in Boston, and those have been some of the stronger markets because there's no new supply.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

I heard the other day that the city of San Francisco, they added like 50 new units last year of new supply. Yeah. Arizona, Phoenix added 20,000 new units. And the reason um nobody wants to build in San Francisco is because it's highly regulated regulated.

SPEAKER_00

Right.

SPEAKER_01

But in those markets, as an owner, uh you can do so well at certain points because there's not all the new supply. So it's done extremely well as AI's rebounded, and as the new mayor has come in and and and worked in the city and and improved the city. Two years ago it was left for dead. No one wanted to invest in San Francisco, and now it's the number one apartment market. So when we go to contrarian investing, the contrarians a few years ago and uh that jumped into San Francisco are are very pleased today.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, interesting. Well, I think it's where you can find value many times. If you have a contrarian view that's right, that's where you can really monetize and make money. And no matter what the investment class is, because if you're following the crowd and what everybody thinks and is doing, right, that gets that puts pressure on price. And like, you know, I last time I was in Austin, I remember there's like 10 cranes that you could see building apartment buildings in Austin. I'm like, dang, they're really preparing for a lot of people coming here, aren't they? Like this is this is

Picking Markets And Submarkets

SPEAKER_00

a lot of growth. And and now there's like, and so there's a lot of like excitement there, right? And but if you can take the contrarian view in a place, a market, a strategy, whatever it is, um, that's right, there's plenty of contrarian views where you're wrong, that that's right, there's a real opportunity to make money.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, and you're not always gonna be right on a contrarian view, but that's uh that's okay if you're right more often than you're wrong, then you're gonna be uh you're gonna be just fine. Um but there's something that's the that's called animal spirits. Um and that's where you know people start talking about real estate around the water cooler at work, yeah. Um about how hot it is, oh, how can I get more involved in it? You're probably you're they're they're they've missed the opportunity because uh they're following the herd, and that's that's the wrong time to invest. The folks who invested uh several years before that are the ones who are benefiting from that. It's kind of like when um you know the the retail investor who isn't engaged day-to-day, once they start having these conversations, it's probably about the right time to sell versus the time to jump in with them. Yeah. Um, and that's what contrary investing is all about is understanding that animal spirits and and this can kind of contagion effect and how that really does play into very smart people, well-intentioned people who are so smart in their field, but they don't realize that um the cycles that real estate goes that real estate specifically goes through, but investing in general go through, and they're not uh paying attention enough to the details. And and there's all you always gotta remember when you're making an investment, there's a very likely a very smart person on the other side of that trade. They may know more than you. And um uh if you're gonna be a contrarian, uh the you're playing that game the other way. You're what right now, when that when a asset gets very sour, that's when you're starting to look at it and say, now that's uh this is probably the right opportunity. And that's what we're doing right now uh with multifamily.

SPEAKER_00

Awesome. Well, let's talk about uh different markets. I know we were just talking about you're talking about San Francisco being a market that's been the best performing in the multifamily space, despite a lot of people not wanting to go there. And maybe that is because actually a lot of people didn't want to go there and they've got a supply issue, and now they're gonna have an affordability issue, and I'm sure there'll be all the politics in San Francisco about that. Maybe there already is. Yeah. Um but uh you're starting to go outside of Phoenix. I mean, your original thesis was buying Phoenix. You did four large multifamily deals here last year. Was it four? Yeah. You've got one that you're working right now, another few in the pipeline in Phoenix. Um, but

What We Avoid And Why

SPEAKER_00

I know you're starting to go to Dallas. And so let's talk about like markets and like what are you looking for when you decide I'm I'm gonna go to a new market such as Dallas?

SPEAKER_01

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00

And just for real estate investors in general, like what's your analysis?

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, and Arizona I mean it continues to be a place that we really love. The the long-term growth here is going to be uh really strong. Uh we're we're based here, we have all our operations here, so there's some really big advantages. So we're gonna continue to buy in Arizona. We'd like to buy those, you know, the four or five deals that are available um in Arizona this year. Um, and we bought all of the available deals last year that are in our niche. All financial distress deals basically, right?

SPEAKER_00

Off market bank lender like deals.

SPEAKER_01

We passed on a few that uh were a little small.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

We bought we didn't buy some on the far west side. Okay. Um but the Deals that uh uh well located, um distress deals thirty to forty percent. Um typically they were purchased in twenty twenty-one or twenty twenty-two, and now they're having some financial distress.

SPEAKER_00

We we've got thirty to forty percent there's a discount you're getting on the purchase.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, from what they were purchased at at at at the peak. Um the um the the other part of that is uh we we we're not quite sure who's gonna go buy these older vintage 60s, 70s, 80s on the you know, west side or or south south of Phoenix in this uh in this market. We're contrarian, but we're not that contrarian. Okay. Um those are the ones that are getting hit the most um because they're they're not uh as well located. The the lower end of the economic spectrum tends it seems to be getting hit the most right now. The folks who are at the higher side in the class A apartment building seem to be doing fine. They can handle a little bit of rent increases. So some of these submarkets are really important and we've avoided those. Um and if you want to be really contrarian, you could go in and buy some of the markets.

SPEAKER_00

So if I could summarize, okay, so like even within the Phoenix market, which is it's a big market, right? There's areas where you're just not going. Um, either because the building's too old, which is maybe a worry about costs and the capex and the money you have to put in, or the tenant quality risk that you might have.

SPEAKER_01

And in the in the case of the West of West Side of Phoenix, on top of that is that's where a lot of the new supply is that's still coming on that you're gonna be competing with and that that we um that isn't getting absorbed as fast as it is in the central uh kind of the core. So we're avoiding that. So Dallas, I could use another example. There's a um there's areas in in north northeast Dallas we're staying out of because and I'm I was just there a few weeks ago, we're starting

Office At A Discount: Reposition Plays

SPEAKER_01

to see a lot of distress there, uh talking boarded up uh windows, um lack of cash to do the the basic maintenance that needs to be required. And um that's an area that we we're gonna avoid those. Someone will come in and buy that on the cheap, but it's gonna be a lot of work, and and then uh and they we're not quite sure what the bottom is there. Yeah. Um, but someone is uh is definitely gonna gobble that up. For us, we're we're contrarian, but we also have a sweet spot is we want well-located stuff. We want um uh we want uh traditionally um either renovated or newer vintage. Um uh deal we're looking at right now in Phoenix was built in 2023. Um and and that that is definitely a higher quality asset, less contrarian. The the newer the vintage, the older older the vintage is gonna be um more contrarian. You can get a better price on it, but then you're gonna have higher maintenance costs. Um and I'm not quite sure who that buyer is is gonna be of of even those items, uh, of those types of assets. So we want well-located stuff. So I I saw four deals uh this week in Dallas. Uh a couple of them were interesting. We're gonna be going out there again soon. Um they we've looked at deals in Houston and Austin and in Texas's, you know, the highest growth state. Uh-huh. And and so those fundamentals really um give us um confidence in those markets long term. Um I I talked to a property manager who bought a prop uh a really nice asset in Jacksonville. Um so you know, kind of another random uh city that people in Phoenix probably don't think much about, and they bought it, and and she said it was 20% occupied, and it was her job to go uh get get at least up. But those are the opportunities out there um within uh multifamily, and it's very submarket specific. Um and um we we tend to want to stay in the core, we don't want to get out on the periphery and we want to stay in the higher quality asset class. We will workforce housing is fine, um, but we don't want to go in some of these neighborhoods that are very low income or or subsidized.

SPEAKER_00

Okay. All right. So um let's kind of give some. Um, if I'm a real estate investor in 2026, we've given a lot of ideas here, maybe some contrarian ways to think about investing in real estate. Um there's a few other things I think of just as I'm thinking about real estate. The first is it is always cyclical, you know, and where are we at in that cycle? And that cycle is different depending on the market, depending on the asset type. Um, one thing we've even just talked about is office in Phoenix, right? That's an that's another one because it's getting pummeled. Um, and one of the things that's intrigued me is is I we've looked, I mean, we've been you know, good about to build

Timing, Debt Structure, And Taking Action

SPEAKER_00

an office building, you know, in for one of our uh companies. And the cost to build that property is say 300 bucks a foot build price versus you could buy a building here in Phoenix, maybe distressed, you know, and it might take some work, but let's say at a hundred bucks a foot or cheaper. The building across here from where we're at went for 70 bucks a foot. It's a nice building.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, but we saw that transaction just recently. Um, and an office obviously was hit big time with COVID with work from home. Um, but we're starting to see uh smart money come in to buy some of these nicer offices. And I think it's a tremendous opportunity if you want to be a contrarian in this in this space. You don't have to build. It's better to build buy now than to build, to your point. Yeah, because the replacement cost on these towers for ex for uh reference, you're talking about 300 bucks a foot, and it's you know four or five years to get that thing out of the ground.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

Um, and these are really unique assets uh that if you can buy a well-located office right now, anywhere in that range, um, and play the contrarian because there's not a lot of buyers after these deals, yeah. Um uh I think it's a really compelling opportunity. You have to know what you want to do to reposition the asset because class A office right now is doing extremely well. People want to uh come back to work, but they want to work in a nice place. The older vintage stuff is what's struggling. So you have to come in with some capital, but if you have some capital to do that, take a C to a to a B or a B plus, add some good retail on the main floor. I think you can do you'll be really successful um if you have a long-term uh approach to that.

SPEAKER_00

All right, you're giving me some ideas. Uh we're we always talk deals, so it's um uh yeah, anyways. So um, well, any other advice you got right now or anything else you're seeing in the market we should touch on for 2026? Um I think it's a great conversation. I love kind of the framing of how you did that on some of these contrarian viewpoints because I do think we get caught up in the news and real estate's bad and interest rates are still high, and Trump's gonna go fire the Fed if they don't lower interest rates, and you know, people are like, ah, I got I got a mortgage at 3%. And, you know, they just the a lot of the noise in real estate has just been kind of negative, I think. Um, and I think it's just scared the excitement, and which sometimes is what gets people to take action to invest in real estate. Um, which as we've talked about, is maybe that's actually the wrong thing, is not that excitement when everything's all amazing and you know everyone's all greedy and already made the money, and you should actually be fearful right now. Maybe right now is the time where here's some of the opportunities and where value maybe is, and be thinking about where I can strike value, whether that's a single family property or that you can turn into co-living. I mean, there's all these strategies within real estate that we didn't even talk about today. Um, but or it's multifamily like you guys are executing on and making sure you're buying right and and getting distressed properties. Maybe it's in office, maybe I've we've seen people do RV parks. I mean, it's just like they're just going to where the opportunity is. And I do think the ones that are going to do the best are the ones that have that contrarian viewpoint where they're kind of ahead of the trend of where where things are going.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, we put our pencils down in 2022 and we stopped buying because we just felt like it was getting too hot. And even the couple deals we bought in 2022, they were smaller deals, but I wish we hadn't bought them.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

Um, and but we put them down, and that's what saved us because today we're able to go out and uh we we're not focused on working through problems of this uh last cycle. And and also put into context, um, you know, if you're buying in 2022, you'd probably have to get a bridge loan, variable rate debt.

Closing Notes And Where To Learn More

SPEAKER_01

The project we're buying right now that the other group renovated for us that they're losing, we're able to put uh Fannie Mae loan on it. Yeah, 5.4% fixed rate. Yeah. Um, we're able to pay 5% distributions to investors day one. And our risk is um very uh limited because we have that debt at a low loan to value and we have a stabilized asset. Yeah. So I I love um uh where we're at in the market right now. It may be too early for some people, and I think they're just gonna miss out. They're gonna miss out on some of that opportunity. They can get in, jump in later when they're comfortable. But we've done our homework and uh we we love being the contrarian, and I think it'll pay off for us.

SPEAKER_00

Awesome. Well, um, thanks so much, Jamison, for coming in, sharing your insights. You can learn more at neighborhood.ventures, right? I think the link will be in the description below about what these guys are up to. Like I said, full disclosure, I've invested in their deals and company. And so um, it's not meant to be an endorsement. Do your own due diligence, yada yada. And uh, but thanks everybody for tuning in to the Main Street Business Podcast. Please make sure you are subscribed to the podcast or the YouTube channel where these interviews play as well. Um, give it thumbs up, five stars, whatever you can do to help spread the good word. We'll see you next time.

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Mark J. Kohler

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Mat Sorensen

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