Nagorno-Karabakh

In this episode we will dive into Nagorno-Karabakh, the world's most recent war. Coinciding with Nagorno-Karabakh is the story of the Armenian and Turkish  peoples who have inhabited the area for millennia. Russia and Turkey also make a geopolitical cameo.

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Podcast #4 War in Nagorno-Karabakh

Making this episode, I have had to walk on about a million eggshells. See I’m an American but I lived in Istanbul Turkey between the years 2015-2020. While I was IN turkey, I learned the language and a part of who I am is Turkish now. Having said that What shocked me while I was researching this episode was the overwhelming Bias in favor of the Armenians I found (upon speaking to my Turkish friends about this they believe its because of a shared background of Christianity). The vast majority of Turkish people, many of whom are my friends and students are overwhelmingly in favor of the Azerbaijan due to propaganda pushed by their governments.

It makes sense because Azerbaijan is a Turkish culture with a similar history and language. I for example speak Turkish and I can understand Azerbaijani when I hear it spoken without ever having lived there. In Turkish there is a saying iki devlet bir millet, it transates into 2 governemnts one nation in reference to Turkey and Azerbaijan, there is even a famous pop song about Turkey and Azerbaijan and the Nargorno-Karabakh dispute.

What This episode made me realize is that perhaps the old quote by Napoleon is true “History is a set of lies agreed upon.” One of my previous episodes was about North Korea and I explored how goofy their leaders and history was because of propaganda. Maybe A North Korean or Turk will listen to my work and laugh at how goofy and propagandized it is.

Having said that I did my best to create an unbiased episode… Also I wanted to note that I use the term Karabakh, Nagorno-Karabakh and Artsakh interchangeably.

Nagorno-Karabakh or Dağlıq Qarabağ  In Armenian or Turkish respectively, also known as Artsakh locally, is a landlocked region in the South Caucasus within the mountain range of Karabakh. The population is 99.7% ethnic Armenian, and the primary spoken language is the Armenian language. 

Internatonally however, 

the region is recognized as a part of the turkic country Azerbaijan.

The reason is, if you open up a map of the caucauses, depending on the source you will see an Enclave (an independent state entirely surrounded by another state, Think of the Vatican city in Europe) This is Nagorno-Karabakh or the Mostly Unrecognized Republic of Artsakh.

The Republic of Artsakh is locally run by ethnic Armenians and supported by the modern state of Armenia, it is neither a member nor observer of the UN or any of its specialized agencies and it is not recognized by any countries.

It seems like a simple answer, If the population is 99.7% Armenian why would it be a part of Azerbaijan? The answer isn’t an easy one…

About 30 years ago the demographics of Karabakh were a bit less clear, the 1989 Soviet Union census estimated that the region had a population of 192,000 and 76% was Armenian with a 23% Azerbijani minority, (it should also be accounted for the Turkic Azerbijanis have a nomidac culture and therefore wouldn’t have been in sedentary towns and would have been much more difficult to include in the census)

 the regions surrounding Karabakh were and still are overwhelmingly populated by Azerbijanis.

Nagorno-Karabakh has a total area of about (1,700 sq mi). just about 250 square miles smaller than Delaware the second smallest state in the US. It is a mountainous region averaging  (3,600 ft) above sea level and more than 36% of the area is forested. The region possesses numerous Mineral Springs and deposits of Zinc, Coal, Lead, gold, Marble, and limestone

History

The original inhabitants of the region are thought to have been Scythians, a perhaps proto-turkic people who lived nomadically.

Most Historians agree that the natives of the region of Nagorno-Karabakh intermarried with Armenians who came to the region after its inclusion into Armenia in the 4th Century BC. Some scholars have even suggested that Armenians settled in the region as early as the 7th Century BC.

The Armenians living in the area named it Artsakh after the name of the 10th province of the ancient kingdom of Armenia

 In the 5th  century AD, the first-ever Armenian school was opened on the territory of modern Karabakh cementing it as an area of cultural importance to the Armenian people.             

In the 7th century, Islam entered the region and would stay a significant force in the caucuses until the modern era.

In the 9th century a new Armenian Empire emerged in the region which included Artsakh it would collapse following the Arrival of the Seljuk Turks 200 years later.

During the Mongol Invasion a great number of Armenians would flee the lowlands and take shelter in Karabakh due to its mountainous terrain it was able to keep semi-autonomy during the rule by the Turkic empires such as the Timurid, Kara Koyunlu, and Ak Koyunlu.

 the Turkoman lord Jahan Shah assigned the governorship of upper Karabakh to local Armenian princes, allowing a native Armenian leadership to emerge consisting of five noble families led by princes who held the titles of meliks

In the mid-18th century Karabakh fell under the rule of the Azerbijani turks and became a semi-independent Khanate called the Karabakh Khanate which lasted for about 75 years until the Russian Empire formally annexed it in 1813, 

Under the Russians, in 1822 the Meliks (Armenian princes) Lost their status 

The Russian authorities favored the Christian Armenians over the Azerbaijanis. Throughout the 19th century the Armenian population of Karabakh lowlands grew steadily, encouraged by Russian policy, while many muslims left for Iran or tukey

Nagorno-Karabakh is located in what the Armenians refer to as Eastern Greater Armenia (the farthest eastern point to be exact) This meant western Greater Armenia fell under the Turkic- Muslim, Ottoman empires rule.

Armenians Under  ottoman rule

The western portion of historical Armenia, known as Western Armenia, had come under Ottoman jurisdiction by the Peace of Amasya (1555) Thereafter, the region was alternatively referred to as "Turkish" or "Ottoman" Armenia. The vast majority of Armenians were grouped together into semi-autonomous communities, the Armenian Millet (the Turkish word for nation) The majority of Armenians were also located in the eastern provinces of the Ottoman empire, although there were large communities located in the capital Constantinople, called the Amira class, they were a social Elite some of whom were in the Emperor’s Inner circle.

However the Armenians, being Christin were generally treated as 2nd class citizens within the empire, The Armenians were subject to the whims of their Turkish and Kurdish Neighbors who would regularly overtax them and subject them to kidnappings and forced conversions to Islam. Generally, without interference from the local authorities.

As well as being harassed by the local populace Chistians were not considered legally equal to Muslims. If a testimony against a Muslim by a Christian or a Jew occurred, it was inadmissible in court. Armenians were also forbidden to carry weapons or ride atop horses or camels. Their houses could not overlook those of Muslims and their religious practices were severely restricted… for example the ringing of church bells was strictly forbidden.

They could rule themselves under the Millet system but 70% of them lived in poverty with dangerous conditions in the rural countryside.

The Turks referred to them as Gavours a pejorative word meaning “infidel” or “unbeliever”

1840-1880

The European powers were angered at the Ottoman empires treatment of its Christian Subjects, The Armenian Partriach of Constantinople Nerses II complained to the Great powers stories of  widespread “forced Seizure… Forced conversion of woman and children, arson, protection extortion, rape, and murder” 

In response to the pressure placed on them by the Europeans the Ottoman Emperor Instituted the Tanzimat, a series of reforms designed to improve the status of minorities, nevertheless most of the reforms were never implemented because the empires Muslim population rejected the principle of equality for Christians. During this time the Armenians remained passive and peaceful earning the title “loyal millet". (loyal country) 

The Russo-Turkish war of 1877-1878 ended with a decisive victory for Russia and its army occupied large parts of Eastern Turkey, Unfortunately Entire Armenian districts had been devastated by massacres carried out with connivance of Ottoman Authorities. Russia having witnessed these massacres designated itself defender of the Christian Armenians.

 In Europe The Armenian Question began to circulate, over how the Armenians in the Ottoman Empire should be treated. Britain at this time believed the Russians were using The Armenian Question to get more power in the region. 

In those days, the British and the Russians were in the midst of The Great Game, a political and colonial struggle for control over the regions of central Asia.

This led to the Congress of Berlin in 1878, where a meeting between the era’s 7 great powers took place (Russia, Great Britain, France, Austria-Hungary, Italy and Germany) The aim of this meeting was to decide the fate of the dying Ottoman Empires territories. 

The Armenians sent a delegation but as they did not have a state were unable to appear in person and were confined to observing, they had little effect on influencing the great powers.

In 1890 The Sultan of The Ottoman empire Abdul Hamid created a paramilitary outfit known as the Hamidiye which was mostly made up of Kurdish irregulars tasked to “deal with the Armenians as they wished”. As Ottoman officials had been intentionally provoking rebellions with the Armenians (often as a result of over-taxation) those regiments were increasingly used to deal with the Armenians by way of oppression and massacre. In some instances, Armenians successfully fought off the regiments and in 1895 brought the excesses to the attention of the Great Powers

Prelude to the Armenian Genocide   

On the 24th of July 1908 A coup occurred staged by the officers of the Ottoman Third Army. They removed Sultan Abdul Hamid II from power and restored the country to a constitutional Monarchy. The officers were part of the Young Turk movement that wanted to reform the decadent state of the Ottoman empire and modernize it to European Standards. 

Hopes began to arise for the Armenian’s as the movement was made up of 2 distinct groups; the liberal constitutionalist and the nationalists, where the former were more democratic and accepting of the Armenians. The Nationalists were less tolerant but during a congress held in Paris the Head of the liberal wing was able to persuade the nationalists to allow some rights to the minorities of the empire

In 1908 The ottoman emperor abdul hamid stepped down from power, Armenians, Greeks, Assyrians, Arabs, Bulgarians and Turks together celebrated his dethronement

However the emperor attempted a countercoup in early 1909, ultimately resulting in pogroms against Armenians who were perceived as having supported the restoration of the constitution.[46]:68–69 About 4,000 Turkish civilians and soldiers participated in the rampage.[57] Estimates of the number of Armenians killed in the course of the Adana massacre range between 15,000 and 30,000 people.

In 1912 the First Balkan war broke out and ended as a catastrophe for the Ottomans. The Ottoman empire, already seen as the sick man of Europe had just become Terminally Ill, Losing 83% of their European territories and 69% of their European population.

 The Ottoman empires industry and education centers were mostly located in the Balkans. Many saw the empires defeat as “Allah’s divine punishment for a society that did not know how to pull itself together”. Anatolia, (Western Armenia) was seen as the Turks last refuge.

A mass exodus began from the Balkans coinciding with a mass expulsion from the Russo-Turkish wars. Hundreds of thousands of Muslims including Turks, Circassians(sirkasians), and Chechens were forcibly expelled and others voluntarily migrated from the caucus and Balkans to Western Armenia.

Muslim society in the empire was incensed by this flood of refugees. A journal published in Constantinople expressed the mood of the times: "Let this be a warning ... O Muslims, don't get comfortable! Do not let your blood cool before taking revenge".[46]:86 As many as 850,000 of these refugees were settled in areas where the Armenians resided. The muhacirs (turkish for Immigrants) as they would be called resented the status of their relatively well-off neighbors 

Ottoman propaganda described Armenians as "traitors, saboteurs, spies, conspirators, vermin, and infidels" they believed that it was absolutely necessary to rid themselves of the Armenians as they were “an invasive infection of Muslim society” 

World war 1 

On 2 November 1914, the Ottoman Empire opened the Middle Eastern theater of World War I by declaring war on the side of the Central Powers and against the Allies. 

The Battles of  the Caucasus were deemed crucial for the Ottoman Empire’s survival (The caucuses were Russian territory, and Russia had been after all the historic enemy of the Ottomans as well as the main European power to eek away their territory over the previous centuries) Before entering the war the Ottoman Government sent representatives to the Armenian congress at Erzurum to persuade Ottoman Armenians to facilitate its conquest of Transcaucasia (Eastern Armenia) by inciting an insurrection of the Armenians of Eastern Armenia against the Russian army.

Enver pasha the Ottoman minister of war implemented a plan to destroy the Russians in the caucuses, his army was routed and he returned to Constantinople in defeat, he publicly blamed his defeat on Armenians in the region having actively sided with the Russians

A Jihad was proclaimed against the Christians

In 1915 the Ottomans began sending the Armenian conscipts to Labor battalions, Unarming them and Many of these Armenian recruits were executed by local Turkish gangs

The accepted date of The Armenian Genocide begins on the 24th of April 1915, The day when the Ottoman authorities rounded up, arrested and deported from Constantinople to the region of Ankara 270 Armenian Intellectuals and community leaders, the majority of whom were eventually murdered

 it is hotly debated to this day within the Turkish communities whether it existed and within the Armenian communities, the extent to which it was. According to Wikpedia “the Systematic mass murder and Expulsion of 1.5 million ethnic Armenians was carried out by the Ottoman Government between 1914 and 1923”

Turkish Defenders of the Ottoman empire generally say that the Armenians were causing problems to the already problem ridden empire and that the Ottomans were forced to relocate the Armenians temporarily, in order to prevent losing the war.  However they vehemently argue that it was not Systematic and it was not a genocide.

On may 29th 1915 A law was passed (tehcir Law) Giving the Ottoman government and military, authorization to deport anyone it sensed as a threat to national security. With the implementation of the Tehcir law, the confiscation of Armenian property and the slaughter of Armenians that ensued upon its enactment outraged much of the western world. 

Theodore Roosevelt would later characterize the treatment of the Armenians as “the greatest crime of the war”, 

In the United States, The New York Times reported "the roads and the Euphrates are strewn with corpses of exiles, and those who survive are doomed to certain death. It is a plan to exterminate the whole Armenian people"

Reports from The New York Times were almost daily on the mass murder of the Armenian people, describing the process as "systematic", "authorized" and "organized by the government".

While the Ottoman Empire's wartime allies offered little protest, a wealth of German and Austrian historical documents has since come to attest to the witnesses' horror at the killings and mass starvation of Armenians. 

Probably the most well known atrocity was when the Armenians were marched out to the Syrian town of Deir Ez-zor and the surrounding desert. Forced to relocate, The Ottoman government deliberately withheld the facilities and supplies that would have been necessary to sustain the life of hundreds of thousands of Armenian deportees during and after their forced march to the Syrian desert.

Most Armenian diaspora communities around the world came into being as a direct result of the genocide.[17]

The Ottoman government successfully ended the over two thousand year Armenian presence in Western Armenia and as a result the surviving Armenians immigrate en mass to Eastern Armenia including Karabakh.

THE CAUCAUSES (15 minutes)

Following the collapse of the Russian Empire during World War I, Transcaucasia (including Eastern Armenia) descended into chaos and wars between all political entities in the region emerged. The Republic of Armenia was declared on the 28th of May 1918. It claimed Karabakh which was also claimed by the newly formed Azerbaijan Democratic Republic, A Turkish Nation.

Over the next two years (1918–1920), there were a series of short wars between Armenia and Azerbaijan over several regions, including Karabakh. Ottoman troops later entered the region and were met with resistance from Armenian Geurillas.

After the Defeat and dissolution of the Ottoman empire British troops occupied Karabakh. The British appointed an Azerbijani in charge and recognized Azerbijan as the ruler of Karabakh. The Armenians in Karabakh never accepted the agreement and continued Guerrilla fighting.

In 1920 The town of Shusha consisted of Half Armenians and half Azerbaijani’s. The Azerbaijani side burned the Armenian side in retribution for the revolt. 500 Armenian families were slaughtered and many Armenians fled.

The Allied troops withdrew from the region and the Soviets who were eager to reclaim the fallen Russian empires territory entered the Caucasus. While the Azerbijanis and Armenians were distrcted with fighting each other, the Soviets first Conquered Azerbaijan and then Armenia.

the future Soviet ruler Joseph Stalin, who was born and raised in the Caucasus himself, was at this time (1922) assigned with the task of drawing up the Caucasus regions for the newly formed Union of Soviet socialist republics (SOVIET UNION). similar to the Balkans in Europe this region always had numerous ethnic groups, languages, and cultures.

 Stalin in accordance with soviet policy strategically left Nagorno-Karabakh autonomous oblast out of the new Armenian SSR and into the hands of the Azerbijani SSR in an attempt to keep the ethnic groups fighting each other and not the soviets.

Karabakh was at this time 94% Armenian.  Armenians retained a strong desire for unification of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia.

Part of the decision may have been an attempt to keep good relations with Ataturks also newly formed Turkey (the successor state to the Ottoman empire), which feared a strong Armenian state.

or might have just been a cynical attempt at Divide and rule. The odd placement of the Nakhichevan exclave (an exclave of Azerbaijan surrounded by Armenia) would attribute to this idea.

The Soviets in the 1930s would embark on Anti-nomadic Collectivization campaigns, The Azberijanis who were a nomadic people were greatly affected by this. They were forced to resettle in the larger cities of Azerbaijan or villages surrounding the mountainous Karabakh region. This helped bolster The Armenian claim to the territory.

The Issue of Karabakh-Armenian unification was kept quiet until stalins death, after  First Secretary of the Communist Party of Armenia Aghasi Khanjian was murdered by Deputy Head (and soon Head) of the NKVD Lavrentiy Beria after submitting Armenian grievances to Stalin.

Karabakh’s rural population took on an increasingly Azerbaijani character, the Azerbijani government encouraged the settlement of the area. By 1979 Karabakh was roughly 25% Azerbaijani

It wasn’t until Mikhail Gorbachev’s glasnost policy (Openness) allowing limited freedom to the citizens of the soviet union in an attempt to reform the failing system) were put into effect in the mid 1980s that the Armenians again had a voice over Karabakh.

In February of 1988 Armenians began protesting and staging workers strikes in the Armenian capital of Yerevan, demanding unification with the enclave and citing the Azerbaijanis were attempting to “azerify” Karabakh by increasing the number of azerbijanis in the region.

Another complaint was that there were no Armenian broadcasting stations or Armenian language books in karabakh schools.

The Azerbaijanis counter protested in their capital Baku and found calls to relinquish their territory unfathomable

Gorbachev stepped in and sided with the Azerbaijanis stating that several other regions in the Soviet Union were yearning for territorial changes and redrawing the boundaries in Karabakh would thus set a dangerous precedent

Ethic infighting soon broke out and on February 20th 1988  2 Azerbaijani trainee female students in Stepanakert hospital (the largest city of Nagorno-karabahk) were allegedly raped by Armenians. Soon after in the Azeri town of Agdam (yumshak G) (located in the central east region of Nagorno-Karabakh a large group of Azerbaijanis marched “wreaking destruction en route.” to the Armenian town of Askeran and a confrontation broke out between the police and the civilians… this is known as the Askeran clash  and  left two Azerbaijanis dead, 50 Armenian villagers, and an unknown number of Azerbaijanis and police injured

Azerbaijani Radio reported that "two inhabitants of the Agdam district fell victim to murder", giving two Muslim surnames.

The news of these clashes sparked the Sumgait pogrom against Armenian residents of the city of Sumgait on February 27th.

The Sumgait Pogrom was a Pogrom that targeted Armenian Civilians residing in the seaside town of Sumgait (located deep in the Azerbaijani SSR on the Caspian sea) mobs of ethnic Azerbaijanis formed into groups and attacked and killed Armenians on the streets and in their apartments; widespread looting and a general lack of concern from police officers allowed the violence to continue for three days.

The Sumgait Pogrom is often linked with the Armenian Genocide, Azerbijanis are Turks and had brought back a remembrance of the times under Ottoman Rule…

Following the Sugmait Pogrom a forced exchange of Armenian and Azerbijanis occurred, Armenians living in Azerbijain and Azerbaijanis living in Armenia were forced out of their homes and resettled in their respective countries.

Before being absorbed into the Soviet Union 40% of the population of the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhichevan was Armenian, by the time of the Sumgait Pogrom The Armenian population was virtually Non-existant Many Armenians believed that what had taken place in Nakhichevan was about to be repeated in Karhabahk

Armenians refused to let up on the issue of Karabakh even though Gorbachev offered them a compromise, a 400 million ruble package, Armenian Language textbooks and Television programming would be allowed in Karabakh.

By the end of 1988 Dozens of Villages in Armenia had become deserted, more than 200,000 Azerbijanis and Muslim Kurds left. While the kurds did not take up arms against Armenians almost all of them fled heir homes from Armenian controlled areas (at most, 1,000 Muslim Kurds are estimated to remain in Armenia today)

 By January of 1989 ethnic fighting had devolved into complete chaos and the Russian government sent troops in to stabilize the region, a move which was welcomed by the civilians of each country. The Azerbijani government instituted a railway blockade which crippled the economy of Armenia (85% of goods come in from railways as Armenia is landlocked country mostly surrounded by Turkish neighbors)

The following January another Pogrom was directed at Armenians in Baku, This caused Gorbachev to declare a state of emergency and this time he sent Soviet troops to occupy Baku. as the Soviet regime inched closer to collapse Soviet troops were given orders to take the city by force if needed. They opened fire on the troops of Azerbaijan in the end led to the deaths of 120 Azerbaijanis and eight soviet soldiers in Baku.

Azerbaijani militias formed in the many exlcave villages of Armenia and began attacking ethnic Armenians, at the same time Armanian paramilitias began raiding and burning Azerbaijani cities and killing civilians. Soviet troops were unable to make peace in the region as the Soviet Union was collapsing.

Operation RING

By this time early 1991, Many non-soviet leaders had declared independence, in the former republics of the soviet union. Including, Boris Yeltsin in Russia, Levon Ter-Petrosyan in Armenia and Ayaz Mutalibov in Azerbaijan. Gorbachev held a special countrywide referendum called Union Treaty with the hopes of keeping the former soviet republics united. Armenia along with many other republics boycotted the meeting. Azerbaijan attended.

In Karabakh an arms buildup between the native Armenians and Azerbaijanis began. Mutalibov requested Gorbachov’s aid in disarming the region Termed Operation Ring… The Azerbijani military acting in coordination with the soviet military forcibly deported Armenians lving in the villages located in the region of shahumyan (in central Karabakh) Gross Human rights violations were reported by numerous human rights organizations. The Armenians saw this as a soviet attempt to intimidate them into giving up their desire for unification with Karabakh. The mission proved counter-productive and reinforced the belief that if the Armenians wanted to defend themselves, they would have to do it by themselves. Many Irregular Armenian militias began forming.

Russian President Boris Yeltsin and Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev attempted to deescalate the situation with peace talks.

 both sides agreed to a ceasefire on the following conditions- taking the principles of territorial integrity, non-interference in internal affairs of sovereign states, observance of civil rights as a base of the agreement. The peace talks eventually failed due to the Azerbaijanis continued bombardment in the cities of Stepanakert and Chapar.

The final nail in the coffin was when an Azerbaijani MI-8 helicopter carrying a peacekeeping mission was shot down by the Armenians near Karakend in the Martuni District All 22 people (19 passengers and 3 crew) on board were killed in the crash.

The Soviet unions disintegration greatly favored the Azerbaijanis. The Soviet plan of defense during the cold war was to use Armenia as a buffer state if the NATO member Turkey had attacked. Thus, there were only three army divisions stationed in the Armenian SSR and no airfields, while Azerbaijan had a total of five divisions and five military airfields. Furthermore, Armenia had approximately 500 railroad cars of ammunition in comparison to Azerbaijan's 10,000

The Armenians however did possess greater manpower and a larger share of former soviet officers

 as the soviets pulled out of the region and back to their respective countries it left many conscripts from former soviet republics poor and heavily armed. Many of the former soviet soldiers sold their weapons to nearby militias, some for as little as a bottle of vodka. Which led to the Azerbaijanis being overly equipped for war. 

Azerbaijan received aid from their brother country Turkey, as well as Israel and numerous Arabic countries. The Armenian Diaspora greatly aided Karabakh by even petitioning the US congress placing a complete ban on military aid from the United States to Azerbaijan in 1992.

As Gorbachev resigned from the presidency of the USSR on December 25th 1991 The last remaining Soviet republics Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia declared their independence and the Soviet Union ceased to exist. This destroyed any borders preventing an escalation of the war and Azerbaijan rescinded Karabakh’s status as an autonomous region and renamed the capital Xankandi (the Turkicized version of the name)

In response, on the 10th of December, a referendum was held in Karabakh by parliamentary leaders (with the local Azerbaijani community boycotting it), whereby the Armenians voted overwhelmingly in favour of independence. On the 6th of January 1992, the region declared its independence from Azerbaijan.

 For the next two years fighting would continue with the winters being particularly harsh on the people of Karabakh as well as the Armenian and Azerbaijani countries. Atrocities occurred on both sides directed at military personnel and civilians alike. One of the atrocities that stands out is the Khojaly massacre of 1992

Khojaly located next to Shuhsa was first blockaded during the winter of 91-92, during this time the 6200 Azerbaijani, mostly refugee living in Khojaly were shelled daily, and had no supply of electricity, gas and water. The majority of the civilian population attempted to escape many fleeing on foot. Interspersed with the civilian population were some portions of the Azerbaijani militia. the Armenian side fired upon them claiming “They were using civilians as human shields” Chaos broke out and many of the civilians ran for their lives, as the civilians approached the Armenian soldiers many of them opened fire killing indiscriminately. some refugees managed to escape to Agdam, some, mainly women and children froze to death while wandering around in mountains, some were captured near the villages of Nakhichevanik and Pirjamal.

The situation was an embarrassment for Then president of Azerbaijan Ayaz Mutalibov who blamed his political enemies using the situation to force his resignation,

 The Armenians would eventually gain the upper hand due to conflicts within the Azerbaijani leadership. 

While the political leadership changed hands several times in Azerbaijan, most Armenian soldiers in Karabakh claimed that the Azerbaijani youth and Azerbaijanis themselves, were demoralized and lacked a sense of purpose and commitment to fighting the war. The vast majority of people located in Karabakh, where the fighting was taking place were Ethnic Armenians who saw this as a defense of their family and homeland.

Andrei Sakharov An activist for reform of the soviet union and Nobel peace Laureate famously remarked on this at the outset of the conflict: "For Azerbaijan, the issue of Karabakh is a matter of ambition, for the Armenians of Karabakh, it is a matter of life or death."

Finally, on May 12 1994 after 6 years of intense fighting both sides were ready for a ceasefire. Azerbaijan was particularly drained from manpower Exhaustion. An Agreement was signed by Armenia, Azerbaijan and the Republic of Artsakh with Russia acting as mediator. Sporadic Fighting would continue over the years, but all sides agreed to the terms of the ceasefire named the Bishkek Protocol.

Western Media favored the Armenians viewing the conflict as (a religious war from the Oppressive Muslims attempting to dominate the victimized Christians) this view was not correct as religion hadn’t played a major role in the war. The fighting was about Ethnic disputes and territorial gains. The western media got most of their resources from the Armenian journalists who downplayed their sides atrocities and grossly exaggerated their victories.

END OF WAR 1994

The war was a Decisive victory for the Armenians who took significant territorial gains. Azerbaijan claims that 40% of its territory has become illegally occupied by Armenia (if you exclude Karabakh that number comes down to 9%) 7 adjacent Azerbaijani regions who’s conquest was not in the Armenians war plans were occupied by Armenia.

 About 1 million people have become displaces refugees as a result of the fighting, 400,000 Armenians living in Azerbaijan fled to Armenia. 800,000 Azerbaijanis were displaced from the fighting, including those from both Armenia and Karabakh. 

For comparison, the population of Karabakh in 2019 was about 150,000 people.

According to a 2012 opinion poll, 63% of Armenians perceive Azerbaijan as "the biggest enemy of Armenia" while 94% of Azerbaijanis consider Armenia to be "the biggest enemy of Azerbaijan."[

Rhetoric on both sides remains fiercely militaristic, with Azerbaijan, for instance, reacting to plans to rebuild an airport in Nagorno-Karabakh by saying that it would shoot down any unauthorized aircraft – including passenger craft – over its internationally recognized territory

In his 2015 speech, former President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan stated that he considered Nagorno-Karabakh "an inseparable part of Armenia". The last two Armenian prime ministers came from Nagorno-Karabakh 

Robert Kocharian the 2nd president of Armenia has stated “Armenians and Azerbaijanis are ethnically incompatible”

There was a controversy in Armenia when Arpine Hovhannisyan, the newly appointed Armenian Minister of Justice Liked the comment on facebook  “What human rights when even purely biologically a turk cannot be considered human” posted by the editor-in-chief of Armenian newspaper Iravunk.

Ramil Safarov is an Azerbijani born on August 25th 1977 in the town of Jabrayil, in 1993 the town was occupied by Armenia during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Safarov fled with his family to Baku.

In January of 2004 the 26 year old Safarov participated in a three-month English Language course organized by NATO’s Partnership for peace program. 2 Armenian officers the 25 year old Gurgen Margaryan and Hayk Makuchyan also participated in the program. 

On February 19th Safarov took an axe he had recently purchased and went to Margaryan’s room which he was sharing with his Hungarian roommate Balazs Kuti. The door of their room was not locked and while Margaryan was sleeping Safarov attacked him with the axe, delivering 16 blows to his body which almost completely severed his head. The sound woke up Kuti who later testified 

“By that time I understood that something terrible had happened for there was blood all around. I started to shout at the Azerbaijani urging him to stop it. He said that he had no problems with me and would not touch me, stabbed Gurgen a couple of more times and left. The expression of his face was as if he was glad he had finished something important. Greatly shocked, I ran out of the room to find help, and Safarov went in another direction” 

After, Safarov went to the room of Makuchyan, the other Armenian student. Luckily for Makuchyan, the door was locked. Safarov stood outside shouting his name, Makuchyan half asleep wanted to open the door but his Lithuanian roommate stopped him. Safarov continued looking for Makuchyan in the next room over, witnesses testified that he had “showed them the blood-stained axe and stated that he thirsted for nobody’s blood but Armenian”

Safarov attempted to break the door down as the Hungarian police arrived and arrested him at the scene.

During his initial interrogation Safarov confessed to killing Margaryan and his intention to kill Makuchyan. Questioned about his motives during the interrogation, Safarov stated:

“I regret that I hadn't killed any Armenian before this. The army sent me to this training and here I learnt that two Armenians were taking the same course with us. I must say that hatred against Armenians grew inside me. In the beginning we were greeting each other, or rather they said "hi" to me but I didn't respond. The reason why I committed the murder was that they passed by and smiled in our face. At that moment I decided to kill them, i.e. to saw their heads off... 

 I have been a soldier for 14 years now, but I cannot give an answer whether I would kill if I were a civil person. I haven't thought on the question whether I would kill Armenians if I were civil [sic]. My job is to kill all, because until they live we will suffer.[13][22]
..

If not here and now, then I would do the same thing any other time and in any other place. If there were more Armenians here I would like to kill all of them. It is a pity this was the first occasion and I hadn't managed to get better prepared for this action... My calling is to kill all the Armenians. “ 

Safarov was sentenced to life in prison, he had served 8 years until he was extradited to Azerbaijan under the Strasbourg Convention, despite contrary assurances made to Hungary, he was pardoned by Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev Greeted as a hero, promoted to the rank of major and given an apartment and over eight years of back pay.

CEASEFIRE post 1994-2020 (30 Minutes)

The situation in Karabakh has turned into one of the many Frozen Conflicts of the former soviet union, numerous peace talks have failed. 

The war was finished but the fighting amongst ethnic Armenians and Azerbaijanis never stopped, Dozens of soldiers are killed along the line of contact each year.

 From 1994 the ceasefire date to March 2016, Azerbaijan and Armenia together reported 7,000 breaches of the ceasefire;

Starting in 2007 The Madrid Principles have been a proposed peace settlement for the region. The conditions being discussed are as follows

1)Armenia returns 5 of the 7 regions surrounding Nagorno-karabakh to Azerbaijani control

2)Russian Peacekeeping operation

3) An interim status for Nagorno-Karabakh providing guarantees for security and self-governance

4) lachin corridor and kelbajar region remain under temporary Armenian control

5)Azerbaijan lifts the blockade on Armenia

6) Restoration of all communications

7)the rights of all internationally displaced persons and refugees to return to their former places of residence 

8) Talks begin on the legal status of Nagorno-Karabakh

In Recent years talks over the Madrid principles have stalled, this is because of a shift in Geopolitical power of the region, Azerbaijan Signed a mutual assistance pact with their closest ally Turkey, the Embargo by its 2 most important neighbors Azerbaijan and Turkey, has been draining the Armenian economy. Azerbaijan in contrast has a booming economy based on the oil wealth of the country. Due this oil wealth Azerbaijan has been increasing its military expenditure drastically, from 175 million in 2004 to an estimated 3.1 Billion in 2011

In 2008 the Moscow Defense Brief wrote "...The overall trend is clearly in Azerbaijan's favour, and it seems that Armenia will not be able to sustain an arms race with Azerbaijan's oil-fueled economy. And this could lead to the destabilization of the frozen conflict between these two states,"

War 2016

The largest clash since the ceasfire in1994 occurred in 2016, named the Four Day War…

On April 2nd Azerbaijan launched a reconquest of Karabakh

Originally believed to have been numerous clashes in the region upon the border,

 David Babayan Press secretary of The republic of Artsakh (Karabakh) stated “the times and places of these strikes were not simply coincidental, they intended to resolve the Karabakh issue by April 24th that is to seize and defeat the Karabakh army and annihilate the people of Artsakh by the 101st anniversary of the Armenian Genocide”            

 According to Azerbaijan, Azerbaijani forces sought to prevent continuous Armenian shelling of civilian areas in Azerbaijan and therefore were forced to start a military operation for this purpose

There was no reported evidence of shelling.

For four days Azerbijani forces utilized modern arms such as Tanks, Air forces, and Suicide drones and were able to push the Armenians back 20 kilometers, (according to Armenian sources it was 8 KM of strategically unimportant land) 

However the international crisis group reported the heights were of strategic importance.

It is difficult to get an accurate measurement for the number of casualties as both sides drastically underexaggerate their casualties and overexaggerate their kills. 

Baku claims a loss of 31 servicemen while Armenia claims their death toll was 92 military and civilian casualties.

The US State Department claims that a total of 350 people civilian and military, on both sides were casualties.

War 2020

In July of 2020 Skirmishes occurred on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Thousands of  Azerbaijanis demonstrated for war against Armenia. Later in the month with the help of Turkey Azerbaijan conducted a series of Military exercises.

Turkey for the past 5 years has been seeking Neo-Ottoman expansionist policies. Under the leadership of strongman Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey began propagandizing in support of Azerbaijan. With the economy failing due to mismanagement, Erdogan has been implementing a more populist appeal attempting to get his peoples vision off the economy.

Turkey and Russia have been fighting proxy wars in Libya and Syria since 2012

Russia recently signed a defense pact with Armenia (remember the fighting is occurring In Karabakh not Armenia proper) creating a new proxy war in the region.

Azerbaijan is an oil rich country which could save the failing economy of Turkey.

President Erdogan recently stated “Turkey stands with and will continue to stand with friendly and brotherly azerbaijan with all our means and all our heart”

Emmanual macron the president of France (who has been recently clashing with Erdogan over discovered oil in the Mediterranean) accused Erdogan of warlike language and demanded he back down

The Guardian claims Turkey is sending over Syrian mercenaries to fight for Azerbaijan 

Turkey denies any direct involvement in the region but the guardian was able to track military flight paths from Gaziantepe to Istanbul to Azerbaijan.

On the morning of the 27th of September 2020, Azerbaijan fired artillery on Karabakh killing 18 people including a woman and a child, Azerbaijan claims it was responding to fire. Analysts believe it was Azerbaijan who started the attacked unprovoked with the intent of reclaiming De Jure Azerbaijani territory.

In response to the clashes, Armenia and Artsakh introduced martial law and total mobilization

Azerbaijan began the war with a ground strike supported by artillery and drones,

This war would see some of the most innovative technology used by the Azerbijani’s, Drone technology would prove decisive. especially the use of Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 Purchased from Turkey in June of this year. As well as Isreali sold loitering munition Harop drones, better known as Suicide drones. The legitimacy of their usage has been questioned by many human rights organizations. 

 Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev told Turkish television that Azerbaijani-operated drones had reduced the number of Azerbaijan's casualties, stating, "These drones show Turkey's strength" and "empowers" Azerbaijanis.

For the first week of the conflict little ground was made for the Azerbijanis and they sustained heavy casualties.

Stepanakert the capital of Artsakh and Ganja the the 2nd largest city of Azerbaijan were both shelled 

The Azerbaijanis then turned their attention to the flatland south, and were able to make significant progress until stalled a week later, on October 9th they liberated Jabrayil, the birthplace of Ramil Safarov

A ceasefire was agreed to on October 10th. 

During the ceasefire both the president of Artsakh and the prime minister of Armenia admitted that there had been “strategic withdrawals”

The ceasefire quickly broke down and Azerbaijan Continued its advance until October 17th, Numerous villages were captured on the southern front

By October 22nd Azerbaijan announced that “the border with Iran is secure” and turned their attention to the Northwest in an attempt to cut off Karabakh from Armenia by seizing the Lachan Corridor, the sole highway between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.

By October 26th the Armenians were able to mount a counterattack and halt the advancing Azerbijanis. Arstakh troops then retreated into the mountains and began launching small unit geurilla style attacks.

The same day the US attempted to broker a ceasefire but fighting resumed within minutes

The Azeris continued their advancement and On 8 November, Azerbaijani forces seized Shusha,[166] the second largest city in Artsakh, located 15 kilometers from Stepanakert, the republic's capital.   

After losing Shusha On 9 November a peace agreement was signed between the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, and the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, ending all hostilities in the zone of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict from 10 November 2020. The President of Artsakh, Arayik Harutyunyan, also agreed to end the hostilities.

Under the terms of the ceasefire both Armenia and Azerbaijan are to exchange prisoners of war and bodies of the fallen. Armenian forces are to withdraw from Armenian-controlled Territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh by December 1st 2020. Additionally a 2,000-strong Russian peacekeeping force will be deployed for a minimum of 5 years to protect the region. Azerbaijan is to gain passage to its Nakchivan exclave.

After learning of the ceasefire Violent protests erupted in Armenia against the Prime Minister branding him a traitor and demanding his resignation. Protesters took over the parliament building and pulled the President of the national assembly of Armenia out of his car and beat him.

In Azerbaijan The war and peace agreement is seen as a victory, crowds celebrated and waved flags in Baku (as well as Turkey) 

on 10 November 2020 under the headline "How Russia lost the Second Karabakh War", Konstantin Makienko member of the expert council under the Russian State Duma Defence Committee wrote that the geopolitical consequences of the war were "catastrophic" not only for Armenia but for Russia as well, because Moscow's influence in the Southern Caucasus had dwindled while "the prestige of a successful and feisty Turkey, contrariwise, ha[d] increased immensely".

Casualty estimates are thought to be high. Officially in the hundreds and possibly in the low thousands.

40,000 Azerbijanis and more than half of the 90,000 people living in Karabakh have been displaced 

Once again numerous villages have been come ghost towns and major cities such as stepankert have been destroyed.

Pashinyan has recently stated that the Karabakh issue is not resolved and international recognition of the Artsakh republic is becoming an absolute priority

On October 3rd Aliyev stated that Amernnia needed to leave Karabakh for the war to stop, 

The next day Aliyev gave an official statement that “Azerbaijan was writing a new history” describing Karabakh as an ancient Azerbaijani territory and home to Azerbijanis, noting that Armenians had occupied Azerbaijan’s territory destroying its religious and cultural heritage for three decades. He added that Azerbaijan would restore its cities and destroyed mosques. He later accused Armenia of distorting history.

Conclusion (40 minutes)

The Involvement of Turkey has been perceived by Armenians as a continuation of the Armenian Genocide. the Armenia Prime minster Nikol Pashinyan said in an interview with sky news          

"What we are facing is an Azeri-Turkish international terroristic attack," "To me there is no doubt that this is a policy of continuing the Armenian genocide and a policy of reinstating the Turkish empire."

Another reason the war has been so destructive is the US is not interested in the region, a chairmember of the misnk group (the organization that settled the peace agreement in 1994) along with Russia and France. The USA has been seeking a policy of isolationism under current president Donald Trump who is also focused on winning reelection 

Leaving Russia as the mediator 

Many fear that Nargorno Karabakh could lead to a wider war between NATO ally Turkey and Russia. Under the Trump administration the USA has pursued a Laissez-faire attitude towards foreign involvement, things could change as President elect Joe Biden will soon assume the office.

Greater Armenia

The ARF idea of "United Armenia" incorporates claims to Western Armenia (eastern Turkey), Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh), the landlocked exclave Nakhichevan of Azerbaijan and the Javakheti (Javakhk) region of Georgia.[1][2] Nagorno-Karabakh and Javakhk are overwhelmingly inhabited by Armenians. Western Armenia and Nakhichevan had significant Armenian populations in the early 20th century, but no longer do. The Armenian population of Western Armenia was almost completely exterminated during the 1915 Armenian Genocide, when the millennia-long Armenian presence in this region largely ended and Armenian cultural heritage was mainly destroyed by the Ottoman government.[9][10] In 1919, the ARF-dominated government of the First Republic of Armenia declared the formal unification of Armenian lands. The ARF bases its claims to Western Armenia, now controlled by Turkey, on the 1920 Treaty of Sèvres, which was effectively negated by subsequent historical events. These territorial claims are often seen as the ultimate goal of the recognition of the Armenian Genocide and the hypothetical reparations of the genocide.[11][12]

Some Armenian nationalists consider Nagorno-Karabakh "the first stage of a United Armenia."[15]

The total Armenian population living worldwide is estimated to be 11,000,000.

Of those, approximately 3 million live in Armenia, 130,000 in the de facto independent Nagorno-Karabakh

(GREATER ARMENIA) maybe talk about mengali idea

Azeri City of Agdam

Ağdam (also spelled Agdam or Aghdam) is a ghost town in the southwest part of Azerbaijan and the capital of Agdam District, today under de facto occupation of the unrecognised Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh.[1] Founded in the early 19th century, it grew considerably during the Soviet period and had 39,200 inhabitants by 1991.[2] Armenian forces captured Agdam in July 1993 during the Nagorno-Karabakh War.[3] The heavy fighting forced the entire population to flee eastwards. Upon seizing the city, Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) forces destroyed much of the town to discourage Azerbaijanis from returning. More damage occurred in the following decades when locals looted the abandoned town for building materials. It is currently almost entirely ruined and uninhabited.[4] As part of an agreement that ended the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War the town and its surrounding district are to be returned to Azerbaijani control by 20 November 2020.[5]

WAR CRIMES

t has also featured the deployment of cluster munitions, which are banned by the majority of the international community but not by Armenia or Azerbaijan:[Azerbaijan states that Armenia has deployed cluster munitions against civilians,[142] and international third parties have confirmed evidence of Azerbaijan's use of cluster munitions against civilian areas of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Civilian targeting including the targeting of cities such as Ganja and Stenakert

Armenian Diaspora

A significant percentage of the region’s budget is supplied by Armenian diaspora organizations such as the Hayastan All-Armenia Fund. For instance, a new $25 million road project was recently undertaken with funds raised by the diaspora. The diaspora has also heavily lobbied on behalf of the unrecognized state to their various governments. Thus, Nagorno-Karabakh is the only former Soviet breakaway state with permanent representation in the US and the only one to have ever received US aid ($10 million in 2002).

Good things

Despite its lack of international recognition, democracy in Nagorno-Karabakh is often ranked higher by NGOs such as Freedom House than that in Azerbaijan and occasionally even Armenia. Elections have been certified as free by international observers, although the ruling party routinely gains over 80% of the vote and almost no critical voices are heard in the now largely-homogenous society.

Elizabethpol Census 1897

According to the 1897 census, the total population was 878,415. Tatars (historically the term included Azerbaijanis) at 534,086 (60.8%) and Armenians at 292,188 (33.3%) were the largest ethnic groups. Other ethnic groups included Lezgins (14,503 or 1.7%; reported at the time as Кюринцы and Гапутлинцы ), Russians (14,146 or 1.6%), Udis (7,040 or 0.8%), Germans (3,194 or 0.4%) and Kurds (3,042 or 0.3%).