Embark on a journey of self-discovery and financial savvy with the inimitable Anwal Singh as we kick off the new season with resolutions and revelations. Prepare to challenge your biases and fine-tune your investment strategies as we dissect the importance of data in guiding our decisions and the role of emotional self-awareness in managing portfolios. Anmol’s expertise shines as he shares his passion for Algorand's groundbreaking NFT applications, teasing the endless potential of this nascent technology.
As we wade through the frontiers of AI, from Virtu Financial's algorithmic triumphs to the quirky charm of ChatGPT, the conversation takes a personal turn, reminiscing about parrots and the unmatched solace of New York pizza paired with Tesla's own Cyber Beer. This spirited exchange bridges the gap between AI's capacity to shape our future and the simple pleasures that ground us. But we don't stop at leisurely chat; we probe deeper into the systematic "seven levels of why" philosophy to illuminate the core of our aspirations and behaviors.
Finally, we navigate the murky waters of market predictions, offering a beacon of strategy for investing during downturns, and juxtapose the eternal pursuit of wealth with the paramount necessity of health. As a parting gift, I'm thrilled to announce the availability of my latest work, "Prepping for Success," now adorning the shelves of your favorite retailers, promising to be an essential companion in your quest for triumph. Join us for an episode that's as much a guide for the mind as it is a feast for the soul.
Thanks for listening. Please check out our website at www.forsauk.com to hear great conversations on topics that need to be talked about. In these times of intense polarization we all need to find time to expand our Frame of Reference.
Embark on a journey of self-discovery and financial savvy with the inimitable Anwal Singh as we kick off the new season with resolutions and revelations. Prepare to challenge your biases and fine-tune your investment strategies as we dissect the importance of data in guiding our decisions and the role of emotional self-awareness in managing portfolios. Anmol’s expertise shines as he shares his passion for Algorand's groundbreaking NFT applications, teasing the endless potential of this nascent technology.
As we wade through the frontiers of AI, from Virtu Financial's algorithmic triumphs to the quirky charm of ChatGPT, the conversation takes a personal turn, reminiscing about parrots and the unmatched solace of New York pizza paired with Tesla's own Cyber Beer. This spirited exchange bridges the gap between AI's capacity to shape our future and the simple pleasures that ground us. But we don't stop at leisurely chat; we probe deeper into the systematic "seven levels of why" philosophy to illuminate the core of our aspirations and behaviors.
Finally, we navigate the murky waters of market predictions, offering a beacon of strategy for investing during downturns, and juxtapose the eternal pursuit of wealth with the paramount necessity of health. As a parting gift, I'm thrilled to announce the availability of my latest work, "Prepping for Success," now adorning the shelves of your favorite retailers, promising to be an essential companion in your quest for triumph. Join us for an episode that's as much a guide for the mind as it is a feast for the soul.
Thanks for listening. Please check out our website at www.forsauk.com to hear great conversations on topics that need to be talked about. In these times of intense polarization we all need to find time to expand our Frame of Reference.
Welcome to Frame of Reference informed, intelligent conversations about the issues and challenges facing everyone in today's world. In-depth interviews to help you expand and inform your Frame of Reference. Now here's your host, raoul Labresh.
Speaker 2:Well, welcome everybody. Welcome Welcome to the first, the first show of our seventh season and of the 24, 20, 24, right, I'm going to get ahead of myself 2024 year, and we're starting out that on Frame of Reference here by going back to some of our really wonderful guests from 2023. And I had this idea to get some different people from different areas that had expertise that I think are good. We talk about New Year's resolutions. These are people that have New Year's recommendations. Perhaps we can say that are New Year's reflections too. So my guest today is Anwal Singh, and no, he is not related to Khan, nune and Singh those of you other Star Trek people out there. You're not going to hear somebody go Khan in the middle of this you know podcast or anything. He's totally different family line, right? No reference to the Eugenics Wars in your family. Have there been Anwal? Oh, nothing yet. You never know, though, right, that could be one of the new burgeoning new science Never say never, yeah, exactly, especially these days.
Speaker 2:So how are you, sir? Everything going well.
Speaker 3:Everything's going great, thank you. What about you? How's everything been with you?
Speaker 2:Well, you know, it's only the second day, so we're going to reserve judgment until. I guess we get a little further down the line here, but one can always be hopeful. I've always appreciated the fact that it gives you another chance to kind of try it again and see what we can. Those resolutions are nice, but it's always interesting to me that you almost need a calendar that says at what point did you blow your resolutions? So you can have a you know comparison.
Speaker 2:I didn't have a lot, I just wanted to be better this year. You know, I didn't really quantify anything beyond saying I just want me personally to be better. So whatever that turns into, do you have a resolution at all?
Speaker 3:Yeah, I wouldn't say resolutions as such, but I've always had goals. Different goals Doesn't matter if it's January 1st or March 1st, the goals that maybe you fully didn't get to Like. Health is the biggest priority for me this year. Health is going to be the number one Because you know when you get that business stream it's easy to get caught up in that and then you neglect health a little bit. So I think for this year that is the only thing, just to try to be the best version.
Speaker 2:Sure, Sure, Taking care of yourself. Right? You can't take care of anyone very well if you're not taking care of yourself first. So exactly. Well, so we're going to start the new year with a new round of favorite things. So I'm really trying to go off the top of my head here so that if I cover something from the sheet, then I'll say something over again. So instead I'm going for broke here. Do you have a favorite currency?
Speaker 3:Favorite currency? Yes, and it is Algorand, alderaan. Algorand, it's a crypto currency. Okay, so that is the favorite currency.
Speaker 2:Okay, what makes you like Alderaan?
Speaker 3:A lot of tech being built behind it. So I think the original reason for cryptocurrencies was to be able to actually use it and change the financial world, whereas with Bitcoin and others, it didn't change anything. I mean, it's the same. People just buy it and hope it goes up. With Algorand, there's actual things being built on top of it, for example, airline tickets. So right now, if you buy an airline ticket and now, let's see, you can't travel, well, your money's gone right, you have to cancel with the airline.
Speaker 3:With Algorand, what's happened now is a company called TravelX. So if you get an airline ticket and you can't travel, you can sell it to somebody else. Okay, so it's all happened cryptographically using NFTs. So now I can buy the ticket right off you. It changes over my name instantly with the airline. So that is one thing. And then there's a lot of different things happening Digital currencies being built, and it takes three seconds for me to send you an Algorand instant finality completed transaction, whereas with Bitcoin, sometimes you're waiting 30 minutes. Did it send? Did you get it? Is it confirmed? Oh, network saying it's on pause right now, like you can't really use it like that, right? So it's three seconds on that thing and a very good team, you know, touring award winners, mit professors building it. So I think that's one that I'm like. Okay, I used to be anti-crypto, but now this, I can start to see what's going on in the background.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I've always had kind of a weird love hate thing with crypto. You know, everyone jumped on it so quickly and it was just. You know, it's like AI right now, Everybody's just jumping on, you know, not asking a lot of questions. It's like lemmings off the edge of a cliff, right. And if there's one thing I've seen over time, I mean, you know, I'm in my 60s now and you learn that, you know, but don't jump on the bandwagon until things have had a chance to sort out. And in my mind, crypto has always been one of those things like do you really think that the old power is going to let this happen like that? The old power is struggling to, you know, keep a hold of things and the control that went along with that. So I'm still curious. But I'm glad to hear that, because it sounds to me like you've got a currency now that's actually building an entire ecosystem around the currency, and understanding the functionality is key, right.
Speaker 3:Yeah, it's like the internet of early. You know, when internet in the early days where everything was with the dot com right, dot com bubble, everything would just go up, ai, everything would go up Like so same thing happened with cryptos. So I've been like it, like on the sidelines, not buying any crypto for like many, many years, until, like just you know, this year and last year, where I'm like, ok, did my research, spoke to a lot of professors in the Wharton Business School, spoke to like the actual people who are building stuff on it, developers, and that's kind of what I'm like, ok, now it makes sense. Or like Warren Buffett, even by Apple stock for all his life until just what? About 10 years ago or something, and he's looking now. I think it's a successful business.
Speaker 3:So I think the same way. I've been on the sidelines waiting and I'm like, OK, now I think it's a good opportunity.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I read a quote from him not too long ago. He said he doesn't invest in stocks, he invests in companies. So he watches to see the, I guess the DNA of the, that's how I think of it, the DNA of a company. And when it gets to the point where he feels it's, you know, making sense and they found their group, that's when he'll invest. And, you know, probably the greatest danger of not having Charlie around anymore is he doesn't have somebody to say that's a terrible idea, warren, you know so, but hopefully there's somebody else in his life doing that right. How about do you have a?
Speaker 2:favorite as long as we're talking about financial stuff, do you have a favorite like a finance year, or you know a mentor that you like to go to regularly?
Speaker 3:No, I think my business partner used to be my mentor, so he taught me how to get involved in the stock market, how to trade. So you know we still bounce ideas off each other. But now I'm at a point where you know I trust data, my own data. So I put everything on a spreadsheet and I keep a track of every little thing so that way I don't rely on opinions of others. I look at hard fact data, how that's worked historically to make projections based upon that. So just like a casino, you get a little probability edge and then. So that's the only thing I go to. My data is kind of my mentor now.
Speaker 2:Okay, there's actually isn't there. I thought there was a company they read in MarketWatch or the Journal or something that was. There was a company that had a particular proprietary algorithm that they were utilizing and having, you know, something like an 80% success rate. Do you know the one I'm talking about? Does that ring a bell?
Speaker 3:at all. Yeah, I think Virtu Financial Okay, it could be. They have a bot that's auto trading, algorithmic trading, that goes on in that company. I think they have a pretty high win rate.
Speaker 2:Okay, what's your favorite application of AI?
Speaker 3:Favorite application of AI. There's a lot that's happening, but I think obviously chat GPT is we use it all the time anyway, even for our business, you know for day to day stuff. So I think that's very handy. That's replaced a lot of stuff where you had to sit down and write emails or write anything and now it just gives it to. So that that thing that's a good one. But everybody is familiar with, similar to that, grok that Elon founded. Grok AI is another one which is a funny version of chat. Gpt has a little humor that it adds on to it.
Speaker 3:Okay, so all good applications there's a lot that I've seen. Some of them are scary, like there's a thing, a company called agent, so they are. You can make a video model of yourself. So let's say, for example, you have 30 of the podcasts that you've already done of yours and video. You can upload all of those to that. It'll realize your model and now you are basically created an AI. So now you could just type in the script and it'll say it. You will say it like in video and your voice, so it matches your voice, matches everything, and it's very eerie because you actually can tell the difference, like some of the videos that we've made. I couldn't tell the difference whether me or AI.
Speaker 2:So could I interview William Shatner or Tom Hanks. Is that that in my future?
Speaker 3:You could. You just got to make a model out of them. You know I don't get the legalities of that.
Speaker 2:Yeah, well, they get a call from the agency and yeah, he was never there. I'm sorry. Well, it's right here in the video. I don't know what you're talking about. So how about you have a favorite bird? We're really going to cut and see what happens here. Favorite bird Favorite bird.
Speaker 3:Hmm, favorite bird, I would say peacock, a peacock, okay, all of the colors. Yeah, peacock are actually. You know, I'll change it to parrot. A parrot, okay. A parrot is my favorite and the reason for that is because, like parrots, figured out one thing how to survive, right, they just learned a little bit how to speak. And guess what? They became pets. Nobody wants to kill them Because they can speak right. All the other birds they can't speak. So everybody's like oh, you're for dinner.
Speaker 2:Yeah, Well, they say that for children too. That's why we learned to smile, was you know, so they wouldn't kill us. So because there's a lot of babies, they're like, oh, and then they smile to you, oh, so dogs are cute. For that reason, I think. So how about? Do you have one more favorite? Do you have a favorite comfort food?
Speaker 3:Favorite comfort food? Oh, a lot of them. I mean, you know, that's kind of the thing I'm working on. It's not having too many comfort foods to tear.
Speaker 2:That's your health. Yeah, there you go, okay.
Speaker 3:But I mean comfort food, and pizza always does it. You know, like a good pizza, especially in New York. There's so many different options, so you're having a bad day, a nice, good slice of pizza. It gets the job done, yeah.
Speaker 2:Do you have? Do you have? Do you have to find that there's different pizzerias for different kind of moods? Or you know, if you're in a Dorian mode, you go this one. If you're in a Phrygian mode, you go to this one kind of?
Speaker 3:Yeah, there's a lot. You know like there's a place here Artichoke Pizza, have a great Artichoke Pizza but it's really heavy. Like one slice is literally like that big. You know, like you can't even finish one slice, but that Artichoke Pizza is a good one when you're in the mood. You know there's a vodka, pepperoni vodka. You know you can be hungry now Pepperoni vodka huh. Wow yeah, vodka sauce Sicilian Wow.
Speaker 2:It's like a vodka white sauce kind of thing that's.
Speaker 3:No, it's like a red, you know red sauce made with vodka, just how they have the vodka penne. Vodka passes Okay, so so, like that sauce on a Sicilian slice with a pepperoni, it's perfect.
Speaker 2:Yeah, how about a favorite beer to go with that pizza? I told you the last one, but the beer and pizza thing in Wisconsin that's, like you know, sacrilegious if you don't have the beer with the pizza.
Speaker 3:Yeah, yeah, I mean, I just got the Tesla Cyber Beer. They came out in limited edition Really, so yeah. So there comes with like two little black mugs and a you know a little cyber beer and a funky glass bottle, so yeah.
Speaker 2:So you can carry around your cyber truck. Is that the deal? Exactly? That makes sense to me. Well, anma, you are the closest thing. In fact, as far as I know, you are the best financial expert in the world. So, and for at least for today, for the purposes of this interview, that's who you are and I, I mean, we've talked enough, I think, in time, to know that you.
Speaker 2:You said something, I think, early on in our first interview, and you said it again now, that for you, data is key, and I find that in my own life that there are so many people that are. You know, I just don't think it feels right and you know. Well, yeah, but what does the data say? I'm like, oh, you know, who cares about the data? And like I don't get those people. I seriously do not get those people because it strikes me as a very, very, very arrogant mentality and, in today's world, an extremely dangerous mentality, because you are going to see what you want to see and you're going to hear what you want to hear, and the data is the only thing that protects us from our own biases, and I don't, how did you get there? I mean, maybe there's some key there that we can explore. That would help someone who's interested in just recognizing that they have biases, for one thing, but then and being able to manage those biases and do the work, because you know and like looking at some of your materials too. There's a lot of work that's involved in first establishing and identifying your biases but then in continuing to refine.
Speaker 2:When you're straying off the date, you know the beaten path and getting into. Ah, this is just instinct again, and I think there is still a place for that, but it has to be well-informed. So do you have any clue? How did you get to that point where you the light went on and you said data, man, it's not opinion, everybody's got an opinion. Look at what they said about 2023, right, everybody had an opinion. It was all going to hell in a handbasket. Get out now, for God's sakes. And if you were out by October, when everyone was totally freaking, you know you missed out on one of the biggest booms ever right Through November and December. And so those guys were wrong. Were they not looking at the right data? Were they just, you know, arrogant and thinking I've got?
Speaker 2:I can see the future. You know what's going on there.
Speaker 3:Yeah. So I think, firstly, you know, we have to admit and accept that we all are biased, right? We're all biased human being. That's just how we are wired cognitive biases. Everybody has a lens that you're wearing and you're looking the world, the data, even you're reading it through a lens, right? So, whatever lens you're wearing, whatever lens you're looking at it from, whatever your frame of reference is, that's how you're going to judge things, and even the data, for that matter.
Speaker 3:So the thing with data is like, you know, I rely on it, just because it can't be on it, just because it keeps me in check, it keeps my ego in check, it keeps my own biases in check, or it gives you, you know, maybe it confirms your bias, and that's great, but maybe it's telling you, okay, you need to look at something and maybe study this a little bit more. And I think that's one of the things that I look at. But, at the same time, I do understand how some people, you know, don't factor in data or they don't believe the data because, guess what, whoever's compiling the data also has his own biases, right, and that's what we've learned. We've learned that recently is that who's making that data? Who's compiling that data, because data could mean different things. There's a lot of misinformation online, a lot of false statistics thrown around online, so you have to dive into it. So part of conducting good research is not taking the data and just trusting it for face value, but trust but verify. So look at the data, match that with your own bias, right.
Speaker 3:And then you got to take a step back and see okay, how is that data calculated? For example, you go to, let's say, california and say what are your opinion on this Republican candidate? Right. And they say we polled people here and the result where everybody hates him, right. But now, well, you may be polled 50 regular people who are like hardcore Democrat or hardcore in that area. Vice versa, you go to, let's say, texas interview somebody about Democrats you get the same answer.
Speaker 3:So where's the data coming from? So you got to take a step back and take a look at the data. Who compiled it? Right? What was factored into that? Other things that could move and change that and that'll just make you help. Help you make informed decision. That's what we're trying to do. All we're trying to do is make informed decisions. Nobody knows anything. Nobody knows if the market's going to crash. Nobody knows if the market's going to go up, so you just have to make informed decision based on UC. So I try very hard to stay objective and not subject and not let my emotion, not let my bias, take control, but understand where that data is coming from and use it for whatever it's worth. But at least having that understanding is the key.
Speaker 2:Don't you think too that when I talk about the work that's involved in it, it strikes me that where we fall short a lot of people fall short, including myself is that we don't recognize there's a need, always a need for more data points? You know, I remember talking to a friend of mine who's a doctor, during the whole COVID situation that was going on and as they were talking about well, we believe, wearing a mask because it'll get the particulates out of the air, make it less likely you'll get it. And then I would ask other questions about things and he would say you know, we just don't have enough data points on that yet. And I thought that was so key to so many things where we, like you, talk about statistics. I've taken enough statistics to know. You have to know not only your sample pool, but you have to know how big was your sample pool. And then, once you even established those quantifiable, objective things, you have to be able to look at the questions that were asked. You know, did the questions lead the answer in a particular way, or were the questions already formulated in a way that was going to associate certain things in the answerer's mind that were more likely to come out and thereby, you know, prove your hypothesis.
Speaker 2:So statistics to me, are really really dangerous thing, Because unless you can ask somebody the questions you're saying, right, who are you trying to? Who are you talking to? What was the background? Did you do any kind of demographical research on who you were talking to? Who? Who cleared your questions for you? All of that stuff? So is there a process that you go through when you're talking about checking your data? What does that process look like for you to check it?
Speaker 3:Yeah. So, as I say, right, 84.75% of the online stats are made up just like this one, so you know. So, with data, the thing is like the way I look at it is I'm not trying to find the data that's going to validate my hypothesis. I'm trying to find data that is invalidating it's. A lot of people are using confirmation bias. They have a view and they're looking at the data, finding something to confirm what they already believe, Whereas I'm looking at what's going to invalidate my whole theory. If I have a theory about X about to happen, then what's going to invalidate that? So I'm using that data to see, okay, make educated decisions. So, when it comes to financial markets, let's say, my data says, okay, there's going to be a recession next year. Now I might find opposite data that is completely against what my current bias is. Then that might tell me maybe I should wait and see to get more information, more data, get more statistics on this, see how this is going to pan out. Or maybe I need to scale back my position size, maybe have less amount of money invested in the market at this time, as opposed to completely getting out or going against the market and trying to bet against that market. So I think data is just more than a confirming lens.
Speaker 3:Is what's invalidating your hypothesis? Being objective and looking at various points, there's not just always one source. There's many different people who conduct polls and research and data Try to take all of them and the aggregate is usually going to be an okay thing to trust. Now, you never want to trust one poll or one thing at a face value, but if the aggregate of 30 polls or 30 data points is just suggesting the same thing, then it's more likely to be true. So that's how I look to see which data is more reliable and which I should act on versus which. I should just wait and see for more information.
Speaker 2:I like that idea too of looking for things that de-confirm basically or argue with. There's, I think, an old saying by Ralph Waldo Emerson that says the vehemence of my opponent's argument convinces me that he is perhaps a little bit right and I am perhaps a little bit wrong.
Speaker 3:So, yeah, a good exercise for people to do is you know, sometimes we do this in our company, with my employees or with my team. We'll play an exercise called step into other people's shoes. So now our goal is to where we take off our glasses. We wear the other glasses who's not confirming our bias? And we try to agree with them.
Speaker 3:We play a little game, like a role-playing. Let's say, I believe, okay, this thing is not going to happen, right, and I found a data point that says no, it's going to happen. Now we just got out where the lens is going to happen, and we play a game with each other that you have to basically make a case for. It is going to happen. So you make it a case for the other side. When you do that, that helps you see things a bit more clearly rather than your own internal bias. So we role-play and I think that's a great way to do it is just to wear the other person's glasses and try to defend their point of view. Slowly you'll start to come to a little middle ground, which is usually the truth.
Speaker 2:Yeah, that's a great technique. A lot of debate teams will use that too. Or what is it? A news profession? They have like a red team and basically the red team comes in completely unaware and has to pull coals in whatever the initial team has come up with. So and you end up oh yeah, we didn't think about that one. Ok, that's really important to think about. Let's research that some more. So, yeah, I think it comes down to laziness, honestly, a lot of times that it's like, oh jeez, now I got to go and work. Oh man, that's too much work. It's like, well, do you want to be right or do you want to be correct? It's just to me it's kind of a balance there. So, are you? I've noticed I don't know why this didn't hit me earlier, but I looked at your materials again and saw that the icon for your company is a bull. So will you consider yourself a bull? Are you more bullish in general when the stock market is concerned?
Speaker 3:I mean I'm a tourist, so that's OK, so you have to be. The bull comes naturally, yeah, and I mean it's funny, the bull, I'm a tourist, the bull shows up in my life and then I live right on Wall Street. The bull is like literally right there and then my company's logo is a bull. So I think it was meant to be. It meant to be a bull. As far as the market's concerned, I am at this moment like currently, I'm not a bear, I'm definitely not a bull either. I'm in a wait and see mode, so I've been a bull for the most part.
Speaker 3:We had a great timing buying all the drops in October of last year the COVID drops and we were buying all the way through. Now I'm at a position where I'm actually starting to slowly sell out of my positions, not because I believe this market is going to crash, just because you've had great profits if you bought them correctly, and a lot of stocks had double, triple, four times. Meta Facebook stock used to be $80. Now it's $340 or something so like. When you get these runs as a trader, you have to take profits, because that's what pays your bills. You have to cash out, right. So I think that's one of the things where I'm at right now is let's we had a nice run, let's get out, wait for another opportunity and then we look to buy Now.
Speaker 3:When that's going to happen, nobody knows, but history and data says August or September, something around next year of that, because typically you get a recession 11 months after you first raise interest rates, which was August of last year or September of last year. So that would mean 11 months from then is August of this year. So that's typically happened every single time. Now will it happen this time? You don't know, but that data suggests last 10 times this has happened 11 months after first raise interest rate. So my guess would be August to November of this year is going to be an interesting time and we'll see what happens. Nobody knows what's going to happen, but I'm more in the point of hey, market is just 50% or something the NASDAQ did. Take your profits, get out, lock it in and if you get an opportunity, buy it back.
Speaker 2:Right, well, and it makes sense that you would free up capital for other opportunities, right? I mean, I remember during this past time of being like the small cap value stuff that I looked at was like small cap is just peanuts cost right now and it has to bounce back. It always does, and that by far is the stuff that has performed the best right now. So to the factor of three over other things. So do you find that there are sure things or is there no such thing as a sure thing?
Speaker 3:There is no such thing as a sure thing, but there's things that are close to it, you know, like, things that are closer to a sure thing, that you know it's gonna happen. Just, the timing will be off right, like you expect. Okay, this company is gonna be a great company. I'm super confident about it, but, yeah, it might not happen in the timeline that we have in mind, right. For example, let's say, tesla we all know it's gonna be a great company. It is a great company even now, but it's gonna be greater down the line. We all know that.
Speaker 3:But the stock price might obviously not agree with us, right, it might take a while. So, like, for example, uber is one of those stocks that, when it dropped to about $20 or less than that during the 2020 COVID crash, that was one that I was like this is a great buy. There's no way Uber's not going anywhere. In fact, it's gonna get more and more popular. And I thought this is gonna be $100 stock. So that was one that we bought, and now it's at 60, something pretty close to 100. So it tripled more than triple, depending on where you bought it. So that was a sure thing, but it took a while. It didn't come right back up. They hung around there doing nothing and now, this year, finally it came back. So it happened. It just didn't happen in my timeline. So, yes, there are sure things. It's just that the timeline is not gonna be a sure thing, do you find?
Speaker 2:like, as you're looking to 2024, are there trends that are? Or is it companies? Is it just the philosophical bent? I mean, I know it's an election year. It seems like election years always throw a whole bunch of stuff into the you know the cauldron of possibilities, and then you've got, you know, the war in Ukraine, the war in Israel and in Syria, all that stuff going on. How much of that do you think plays into it? Do you just have to kind of put your finger to the wind and go well, here we go. Or do you? Do you sit back and, as you're saying, just kind of watch it for a while and then move once you got a better feel for it? But yeah.
Speaker 3:So I think if you are, you know, depends on what kind of person you are. If you are somebody who's an investor, who doesn't do this for a living, you have another business, you have another job investing in the stock market. You don't need to worry about anything. Stock market has always been higher than it was 10 years ago, every single time. So if you have a long term horizon, you don't need to worry about a war election, none of that. I just keep investing, don't worry about it. You're gonna get that 10, 12% average, you know, over the course of the years. So I think that's a great approach Now for me, because I'm a trader and that's what I do for a living and I time the market, I could afford to like get out, get back in, because of the discipline A lot of people, when they get it out, let's say, of a stock to sell an investment, and it comes back down, they don't buy it again because they're like, oh you know, maybe I'll buy it cheaper.
Speaker 3:I used to own it way lower and they won't get into the stock, whereas I am very disciplined saying, okay, I'm taking profits here, but if it comes back down here I'm gonna rebuy that position. I'm gonna get back in it. So I think for me I like to trade around the position. I can read cycles pretty good. Not all the time am I correct, but for the most part it makes up for when I'm right. It may make up for when I'm wrong, so I think for me it makes sense.
Speaker 2:Do you have to have a lot of cash available, then Do you always try to keep enough available for resources that you can make those pivot moves when you need to?
Speaker 3:Exactly, you have to have cash right. So if I think that, okay, there might be a potential pullback before the elections, then well, I need to have cash. If I already have everything invested, then how am I gonna buy that and take advantage of those drops? Sure, last year we got amazing drops in October, right In October, before a lot of stocks in market dropped 35% and from 35% market went up 55%. That's a huge spread that you would have made. You could have made five, six years worth of returns in that period if you timed it correctly. So that's kind of what we try to do. What was the other question?
Speaker 2:I was just thinking in terms of how people have that basis available. How do they decide that, well, I have enough cash now and I can afford to just let the rest of that ride, because you touched on a little bit that I think a lot of investors are like me. Really, we don't have time to watch it as closely as we'd like to I mean, obviously, as well as a trader can. So we have to kind of take a okay, we're just gonna pick the best indexes I can, ETFs, whatever we're gonna put it there and just let it be, because you can't do the panic thing, nor can you do the greedy thing. What are the? Buffets says he buys when people are fearful and he sells when people are greedy, and that's what Warren Buffett is doing right now.
Speaker 3:Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has the most cash that's ever had on his balance sheet right now. So they're slowly holding a lot of cash and typically, every single time Warren Buffett's done that in the past is preceded by a crash or preceded by a decline, and now he's the one who has the cash when the market's pulling back so he could take advantage of those opportunities. And he's done that every single crash. He did it last year, he did it 2020, right before the pandemic. Every single time, and he's doing it again now. Berkshire Hathaway has a lot of cash on his balance sheet. They're waiting for a good opportunity. So that's another data point that validates the 11th month data point that I gave about the recession. So I'm kind of piecing two and two together and getting more confirmation for what I think so.
Speaker 2:are there data points and particular data points that you're watching for that you would encourage people to keep an eye on, or is it different based on who you are and what your investment strategy is?
Speaker 3:Yeah, I think investors don't worry about it, unless you're an active investor who times the market, who does this actively, then you could look at these data points. For most people don't worry about it, unless you are closer to retirement. If you're somebody who's like you know what? I have all my money in the stock market, but I'm going to retire and are you going to need a certain amount of income or a certain amount of money coming in? Yeah, then it makes sense to lock in some. At least you have some cash for if stuff goes haywire. And then you have some cash and you're set for retirement. But now, if you're somebody who's like I don't really care, I'm in my 40s, 50s, 60s, I can hold on for another 20 years if need be Then don't worry about the data points, because market might go down, might go up, but eventually, 10 years later, it'll be right back up again. So I think that is one thing to keep in mind. Just if you're close to retirement and that's your source of income, you're relying on dividends or you're relying on that, then yes, definitely I would suggest taking profits on some of it at least.
Speaker 3:One thing people do is rebalancing their portfolio, which basically means, let's say you started $100,000 in your account and let's say 20,000 of that with Tesla. Now let's say 10,000 of that was Apple, 10,000 was Amazon. So you have a percentage 20% of your investment. Now let's say you own Tesla and the stock suddenly just doubles. Now it's not 20% of your portfolio, now it's 40% of how much it went up. So you might want to cash out some pay yourself and bring your position back to 20%. So that is called rebalancing, sure.
Speaker 2:Yeah, we have a 401k plan that does a similar kind of thing and I'm being pretty aggressive. We should be doing retirement, retirement, retirement. But I'm like, hey, I'm going to keep working for another 15 years, I'm just going to keep the 75, 25 spread and just take my chances. What's the worst can happen. But one of the things I did go back to with you have a trading flow chart that I know is part of your materials, and I love the fact that that has a series of stages, but the first one being stage one is being and then you talk about things like a level of awareness, a state of mind, your mindset overall Going into 2024, what do you think should be the keystones of a person's level of awareness and what are the warning signs that you just shouldn't be doing it? You should just back off for now and just sit back and watch instead of being actively involved. Where is that? Is there a point where you, what questions should a person be asking? I guess ultimately to know where they're at?
Speaker 3:You mean personally on where they are in their life.
Speaker 2:Yeah, personally.
Speaker 3:Yeah, I think that comes by taking an inventory, so maybe taking out a piece of paper and just grading yourself from one out of 10, right. So grade yourself spiritually. How do I feel? Where do I think I'm at? One out of 10. Give yourself a score. Let's say I'm a six. I could be doing a lot better. But you put a six on it and then you said where am I financially based on? Where compared to where I would want to be? Compare that from one out of 10. Give yourself a score. Maybe you give yourself a nine. Great. Now you compare health-wise. Where am I at? 1.1 to 10? Yeah, I could be eating a lot better. Skipping on those artichoke pizza we talked about skipping on all of that. I could be doing a lot better. I could be working out a lot more. Maybe give yourself a five as a room for improvement. So we're kind of grading each of our categories, like the social life, relationships. Keep a great score and now if you're scoring less than the top echelon off it, then you know that there's room for improvement and you know what you need to work on.
Speaker 3:So first is taking inventory of your life and then figuring out. Okay, if I'm at a five. Don't feel bad about it, just say there's a lot of room for improvement. Excited about it. So I get excited about it because I look at it and I'm like, wow, this is my life right now, but I'm at a five or six on these areas. What if I just get to 10? How much greater would that be? How much better would I feel? So, rather than going negative on it, you feel good about it, excited about room for improvement, and that's how you would take an inventory of your life. Get the awareness first, because if you don't know what you're missing, if you don't know what you need to work on and improve, that's a problematic situation. It doesn't matter if you're not there yet, but having awareness is step one.
Speaker 2:Well, that then takes you right into the next step. Right, the state of mind you know there's. How do you feel? You know, are you a positive person, are you a negative person? You know, and where does that fit into the mix? Because it seems like I think there's almost a lack of emotional intelligence in a lot of us that we don't even really understand what we are feeling. You know I'm mad all the time. Well, are you really mad, or are you frustrated? Are you afraid of something? Is that what's going on there that you know you can maybe turn around? Or you know you just have to kind of sit back and really analyze so that, yeah, I'm freaking out here way too easily. What's the trigger here? Or I'm, you know, I don't seem to. Nothing bothers me, right? I'm up in the clouds all the time and you know, gosh, reality is going to hit sooner or later. Are there barometers you use for that too, that you think people should do that kind of gut check, emotionally as well?
Speaker 3:100%. I think it's a popular exercise known as the seven levels of why, right? So, where you keep asking yourself why, roughly seven times until you get to the truth. So it might be like oh, I want to make X amount, great, why do you want to make that? I want to make that because you know it'll be great to have. Okay, great. Why'd you want that? Well, I could buy all these things I would give you if you bought all these things. Why'd you want that? Well, like well, because maybe I never had it growing up. Okay, great, we're getting somewhere.
Speaker 3:So you keep asking yourself why, you know, why do you think you want that and not something else? And until you get to the truth, that gives you emotional awareness of your true purpose and your true reason for wanting something. And then you realize that it's not superficial, like, okay, I want this car, I want this. Not superficial. Maybe it's a dream, maybe it's a childhood goal, maybe you felt like you never had it, Maybe you grew up poor, right, so it could be a lot deeper than just having a superficial thing. So I think that is one thing is the seven levels of why and then also just accepting it, right, so meaning, like you know, sometimes I'll just close my eyes and I'll say, okay, you know, today I feel frustrated and that's okay, and it's okay, and what I would rather feel, what I would rather want to feel, is X, great, and what are the things should I do to get there and start writing down. After that, write down, okay, what is going to get me. So you link it, write down one column here's how I'm feeling right now, here's how I would want to feel, and then just write down the action steps of what's going to get you to feel the way you want to feel, right. And then you schedule those things and your calendar and guess what you'll feel that.
Speaker 3:So I think that is kind of one of those things is to treating life in a systematic way, and a lot of people say but you know, life's to be in the flow and it should not be fun, but what if your life is a drift? It's drifting. It's just like a sailboat on the water is just drifting away. Now it might drift somewhere. You don't want it to drift, right? So if you wanted to drift somewhere you you wanted to drift then you got to steer in the right direction. So I think that's where you're going to take an inventory now and again over here at where you want to go. And do I need to steer it the other way, or am I okay with where it's drifting? I think that's one of those things to look at.
Speaker 2:Do you think that? Uh, it made me think about the laissez-faire kind of attitude that some people have towards the stock market, you know. But me worry Is there a place for that, versus the person that's very calculated about every little move that they do? I mean, I wouldn't do that because that's going to blah, blah, blah. That's honestly one of the things I've laughed at over the course of this year is reading a lot of the.
Speaker 2:You know people that are predicting what's going to happen. It's like you know I think we talked about Jim Kramer is wrongcom right. You know how. How often do these guys look back at their time and say, boy, I totally blew it with that one. You know what? What was I not reading, what was I not looking at? So at what point do you think we have to say to ourselves you know, this is a little bit more of a feeling thing than a thinking thing. I'm going to just go with what I feel here right now and honor myself here and this whole thing. Um, is there? Maybe I'm asking something that can't be answered?
Speaker 3:I I you know feelings are there, but you have to have. Is there a basis for your feeling? Cause we all feel things. But God, we'd be in trouble if he acted on every single feeling we ever had Right. So you got to have those feelings. It's okay to have them, acknowledge them. But then you know, see, if it's okay to do that I mean you might see a beautiful girl on the street you got feelings You're not going to act on every little feeling. You know you've been jailed.
Speaker 2:So I can think of some people that do, and they seem to get away with it. They're just fine.
Speaker 3:So maybe they have data to validate than doing that.
Speaker 2:Well, they have friends in high places that can just get them out of anything, right? So exactly.
Speaker 3:I think that's one of those things is it's okay to have the feeling, acknowledge the emotion, acknowledge the feeling, but then again take inventory. Where do I need to do? What is this action step going to get me to that? And I think that's one of the biggest things is the action steps.
Speaker 2:So when you look at you know. Stage two, the doing the trade, scoping the market right now. So here's 2024 and there are still people that are hoping for soft landing. I don't know, is a soft landing possible? Do you think that that really is a doable objective right now?
Speaker 3:Yeah. So you know, I'm on my 14th year involved with the stock market and this is something I've heard since the day I started. You know Federal Reserve's printed too much money. We're going to crash. Economy is going to die in a gold standard. We got to bring it back. The debt ceiling, she government shut down and nothing ever happens.
Speaker 3:So I think that's the thing with the buck the ball just keeps rolling, forward and forward and forward. I don't think anything crazy is going to happen in our lifetime, but you know it's a problem. But I think the Fed, if you just keep rolling on the problem, and if they're the ones who decide that they can keep rolling it forward, there's nobody to stop it. It's just going to keep rolling. So I think that's one of those things is don't worry about soft landings, hard landings those are all talking points to keep you away from investing in the stock market, and that's the point that Wall Street uses that. Hey, you're not that smart, you're not going to be able to figure out. Give it, give us your money, right, we'll manage it for you. Invest it in our hedge fund? Yeah, put it in our ETF, right, don't worry about it. We have analysts, we'll look at everything. Meanwhile, you are better off just buying the S&P 500 than any other hedge fund out there.
Speaker 3:99% of the hedge funds actually underperform the market, so you're going to just bought the NASDAQ and got way better returns than any other hedge fund manager. So I think that's just a game that they use to try to keep people to think that, oh, you're not that smart, let us handle it. We're Ivy League graduates, you know, and I don't buy into that. I don't buy into their talking points.
Speaker 2:So are you of the ilk that the market will do what the market will do, or do you think there is a? I mean because it does seem to me like when you, when you, start to say authoritatively, predictively, what's going to happen, that I already don't want to listen to you. You know, that's my philosophy these days, because I've just had the people that are that authoritative unless I hear them say something like but I could be wrong. Okay, you know, I fully accept that I could be wrong here. What do you look for in an analyst or someone that you're? Maybe you're just your only analyst so you don't have to care with the rest of the but do you look for somebody that's contrary to your belief in what you think is gonna happen and then try to poke apart their argument? Is that a good?
Speaker 3:something Great with my type of investing in trading is I make all the decisions based on the charts. So look at the charts. The charts have cycles, charts have history, but what patterns really are is something that happens over and over again and you have data to say okay, last 100 years this thing has happened, all right. So I only look at the chart and I make my decision based on the chart and it's served me really well over the last 14 years, cause a lot of people are like, no, but this company is gonna do this or that, or crypto is gonna do this or that, or AI is gonna be the next hot thing, and everybody has their you know analysis. Everybody wants to add their opinion. I think that's how the CNBC and all these functions you know things work to bring all these clowns on TV and their only job is like that's gonna crash, that's gonna be the next big thing. It's all to create hype. It's all to create that. You know that buzz. But real investing is just watching and waiting. So for me, I don't listen to any analysts, I don't watch any CNBC or any of that thing I might hear and again browse something on Twitter just to see if somebody's like having some information. That is completely neglecting what I've looked at. But in the absence of anything you know of substance like there's a company's going through a lawsuit Then you have. If the chart is telling me this is a great company to buy, but if the company is going through some lawsuit, then okay, maybe I'll sit back and wait, right, let that pan out.
Speaker 3:But typically the chart is the truth. Why? Because everybody has an opinion. Everybody has an emotion, fear and greed. It's all subjective, right? How many times have we've seen great companies that people are like this company's gonna fail or the earnings are gonna be bad, and then the stock still goes up? Or sometimes the companies report great earnings, they crush the earnings, the stock still goes down. So clearly that fundamental thesis is very subjective. So I rely on market what's happening right now, cause the only thing that pays is price. You can have all the opinions, but if the price is going down, it doesn't matter. You could be holding onto a stock you're like this is a great company, you're gonna hold it all the way down. No, I'm not gonna do that. So the chart tells me when to buy, when to sell, when to get out and when to rebuy, and you know.
Speaker 2:So it's the. Is that chart just a chart of historical perspective, essentially of you know, looking at enough data points to be able to say this is the trend line, you know, and I'm at this point in the trend line, or most likely, I'm at this point in that trend line. Is that what?
Speaker 3:Yeah, there's four market stages, right. So stage one is when stocks and market is going sideways, up and down or going anywhere. Then you typically get a breakout. Then you go into stage two, which is a period of uptrending All right. Then you get another slow down, start shopping sideways again and then you come down, which is stage four. This happens in every single stock.
Speaker 3:Everything I could show and I can have hundreds of examples of this chart as well that I could bring on so those tell us exactly which cycle we're in, and all we're trying to know is which cycle are we in? And it's not hard. A lot of times you can take a look at the chart and you clearly see it's going down. Why would you want to buy that company? You might agree with this company's gonna be the next best thing, but it's losing value. So why don't we just wait till it starts uptrending and then we buy it?
Speaker 3:So that's what we're trying to do is I might have my biases like this is gonna be the best company in the next 10 years For the stock's going down. I'm still staying out. When it starts going back up, then I'll buy it. So I think that's one of those things to use. Now, it sounds easier said than none, but I think once you've been doing it for a while and you've been spotting these patterns you've gone through hundreds of thousands of charts over the course of years then you can start to see these cycles and I think it's more art than science. So it's not like scientific to say if this, then that it's a little art into it, but it's something that can be learned.
Speaker 2:Do you think the cycling is happening any faster now than it was, say, 10 years ago or 15 years ago? I mean, it has the computerization of trading? Has that just made these cycles much more rapid than they used to be, so that it may be harder to tell which phase you're in? Just because that 2023 did not end up being what it was in terms of where a lot of people thought we were on the chart, and ended up being in something else altogether.
Speaker 3:Right.
Speaker 3:I think that's where people had their biases take over, because, historically, if you look at it, anytime the markets drop 35%, it's a great time to buy. Markets have almost always not almost always have recovered that decline and historically, when the markets crashed, that 30, 35% is where we typically stop and then the market goes back up. Guess what happened last year? But as that dropped 35% and I made a video that literally that week and I put out on my social media markets down 35%. Historically it's been a great time to buy, can't just data point.
Speaker 3:If you have a long trip perspective, this is not the time to get out, this is the time to buy. Historically, that's what happened. You can never go wrong doing that. And guess what? Markets went straight back up into all time highs from that 35% number and in that moment, though, if I let my biases take control. But though, this time is different, this time it's gonna crash Elections, ukraine, russia, israel, baseline. This time it's not gonna come back, and that's what a lot of pundits on TV did. Markets crashed, crash, 80% decline, 50% decline. So they relied on emotion more than actual fact, which you can back up by looking at last 100 times, that's, at the market drop 35%. What?
Speaker 2:happened, okay. So what does 2024 look like for you?
Speaker 3:For me too early to say it's only second January. But I'm gonna say markets probably keep floating, meaning they keep slowly dipping higher, little pullbacks along the way Probably gonna keep going until August or September of this year. Then again your guess will be as good as mine at that point. But historically, august to October, let's just say, of this year might be the time if we're gonna get a pullback. That would probably be the time, okay.
Speaker 2:Yeah, that seems to historically talk about patterns and charts. Gosh that August to what do they say? Something about May too? Isn't there a point where May that you just are supposed to sell or leave it? Yeah?
Speaker 3:just say it's selling may go away. That data point recently has not been true last like three or four times really. But August to October typically holds true. But now, combining that with it's exactly 11 months after we first was interest rate, now we got two data points because that also has happened. So that's kind of what I would say.
Speaker 3:I wouldn't say it's a year to start buying things aggressively. I think for me it's a year of concentrating my positions into the things I really believe in. So let's say, I might have 30 stocks that I own. I'm starting to take profits on all of them, right. But then I'm like, okay, these one or two I'm gonna hold on. Like Tesla, I'm gonna hold on to that one. Algorand cryptocurrency, I'll hold on to that one. So there's certain things that I'm concentrating my money into these positions that I feel really good about and I really believe in and have data to back it up, and then rest. I'll keep the cash in case we do get that decline. Then I can buy my own all the stocks back again, sure sure.
Speaker 2:Any words of wisdom for the 2024 person who just wants to try it. Just, I've never been in the stock market before I did. Scares the Begemini's out of me, but I just wanna try it. What do you say to him?
Speaker 3:I think you should get started for sure. If this is your first year investing, you never invested. Make this your first year, because 10 years from now you'll thank yourself. You might markets might drop next year, markets might drop this year, it doesn't matter. 10 years from now you're gonna thank yourself and you're gonna be glad that you made decision. So if you're scared about investing in the market, what you should be scared about actually is your money losing your power. We got inflation. Every year we're printing more and more money. Your money is losing value. Just sitting in your bank account it's not getting you anything. So at least you have to catch up with the rate of inflation, if not more, and the stock market historically will give you 10 to 12%. So even if inflation's at 6, 7%, you're still. Your money's still getting 4, 5% every year, whereas if it's just sitting in your bank account, every year it's purchasing power is going down.
Speaker 3:You could go to McDonald's, buy a Mexican burger for like $2 or a dollar Right now. The same thing might be I don't know $4, $5, right. Same thing with all the other across the board. You go to a grocery store. You buy a pizza, frozen pizza, maybe it costs you $5. Now that thing is $11, $12, right. So you having money just sitting there and not doing anything you are working for that money. Right now, you're spending your hours trading that for money. Let that money work for you while you're not working. I think that's the great way to do it, sure.
Speaker 2:So relax, everybody, be happy. Well, not to mention, it strikes me that there's a lot of FOMO going on, right, and so now that people just kind of doing these silly things based on fear, which is never a good operating principle from what I've seen. So anything you hope for for the 2024, what's besides more wealth. I'm sure you everyone hopes for more wealth, right? Healthy, wealthy and wise.
Speaker 3:So yeah, now I think it's just health. You know, like health is the big one. You know, I think obviously recently it's been more and more like I've had a lot of friends and you know stuff that you would never expect, you know, suddenly happens and you know, I think health is the biggest thing because you can make all the money in the world. But what good is it when you have a sore throat, for example?
Speaker 3:right, yeah, it doesn't matter none of the money matters, right, when you got a sore throat, all you think about is just getting that out. So I think that's the biggest priority and, yeah, that's the goal is that to feel good about where you're at. So, if you're taking the inventory, as we discussed- if I'm at a five on the health. I want to make it at least an eight or nine, you know Doesn't have to be, 10, but it's got to get better.
Speaker 3:So even if it goes from five to seven, I can grade myself on great improvement. I think that's the whole idea.
Speaker 2:So everybody out there listening right now needs to take that inventory of themselves. Right, Let that be a resolution that you will take that inventory and get an assessment. You know, how do you know where you've gotten to if you don't know where you've been Exactly?
Speaker 3:And take an entry every year, Every New Year's score yourself yeah, and you should be getting better every year If you didn't make any progress. That tells you what you need to focus on right now.
Speaker 2:One of my closest friends in college used to say his dad, one of the greatest lessons he learned from his dad is on January 1 or December 31st they would sit down as a family and each one of them would set a one year, a five year and a 10 year goal and just say you know where do you want? And they would break it down into where you'd like to be, you know financially, where you'd like to be emotionally, where you'd like to be professionally. And it was just he said it was really interesting how you know. The year to year things shifted, but the longterm things. Then, after a couple of years of shifting with the one years, they said you know what I really need to adjust my five year now. So you know what a cool thing to do as a family and you should probably start doing that.
Speaker 2:You know, I'm running out of time. I better start doing these smart things that I learned about when I was older. So, anwal, thank you so much. Thanks for your time. I know you're a busy man. I know you have lots of things to attend to. I just can't tell you how much I appreciate you taking the time to talk with us today. Best, best best wishes for you throughout 2024.
Speaker 3:Thanks for having me, yeah, thanks for having me. Great chatting with you. Always as well, and same for you. Wish you all the best of health, wealth, love and happiness. Thank you.
Speaker 2:So, folks, my guest today has been Anwal Singh. He is not I say again, he is not related to Khan New Orleans Singh. So please get that out of your mind, I know, but I can't get it out of my mind. So, but Anwal is a trader. He is the CEO of a company called Live Traders. Right, and actually you know I forgot to mention, dude, don't you have a book out there somewhere? Anwal, a prepping for success Is that.
Speaker 3:Yes, prepping for success ten keys for making it in life on Amazon and I just came out with the audiobook on Audible and iTunes as well. We just came out a few weeks ago. Are you reading it or did you get somebody to read it Both? So it starts with the narrator reading the book and then I come on at the end of each chapter to add my in my voice as well. Oh cool.
Speaker 2:So sounds fun, prepping for success. Available on Amazon, barnes and Noble Wal-Mart. So you don't have any excuse for not being able to find a copy of it. Okay, that's just the way it is. So again, thank you sir. Appreciate it. Happy New Year. Thank you you too. Happy New Year as well. Thank you.