{"version":"1.0.0","segments":[{"startTime":0.0,"endTime":2.0,"body":"[Music starts]"},{"startTime":0.0,"endTime":2.0,"body":"[Subtitles are AI generated]"},{"startTime":2.0,"endTime":4.12,"body":"Welcome to another edition of our Topical"},{"speaker":"Guy Miller, Chief Market Strategist \u0026 Economist, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":4.12,"endTime":7.0,"body":"Thoughts series, where I'm joined by Tom Liebi"},{"speaker":"Guy Miller, Chief Market Strategist \u0026 Economist, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":7.0,"endTime":9.36,"body":"who's just written a paper on the changing of the"},{"speaker":"Guy Miller, Chief Market Strategist \u0026 Economist, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":9.36,"endTime":11.68,"body":"guard at the Federal Reserve."},{"speaker":"Guy Miller, Chief Market Strategist \u0026 Economist, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":11.68,"endTime":14.24,"body":"Now, Tom, we're recording this just after the"},{"speaker":"Guy Miller, Chief Market Strategist \u0026 Economist, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":14.24,"endTime":16.88,"body":"news of the passing of Alan Greenspan."},{"speaker":"Guy Miller, Chief Market Strategist \u0026 Economist, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":16.88,"endTime":19.24,"body":"He was the first Fed chair that I remember on a"},{"speaker":"Guy Miller, Chief Market Strategist \u0026 Economist, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":19.24,"endTime":21.8,"body":"professional basis, and in many ways he"},{"speaker":"Guy Miller, Chief Market Strategist \u0026 Economist, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":21.8,"endTime":24.36,"body":"marked the changing the guard back then when"},{"speaker":"Guy Miller, Chief Market Strategist \u0026 Economist, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":24.36,"endTime":26.24,"body":"he came in, and of course he was at the Fed for"},{"speaker":"Guy Miller, Chief Market Strategist \u0026 Economist, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":26.24,"endTime":29.08,"body":"many years. We've just had"},{"speaker":"Guy Miller, Chief Market Strategist \u0026 Economist, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":29.08,"endTime":30.4,"body":"Kevin Warsh..."},{"speaker":"Guy Miller, Chief Market Strategist \u0026 Economist, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":30.4,"endTime":33.0,"body":"Have his first meeting as Fed Chair,"},{"speaker":"Guy Miller, Chief Market Strategist \u0026 Economist, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":33.0,"endTime":35.64,"body":"[Music stops]"},{"speaker":"Guy Miller, Chief Market Strategist \u0026 Economist, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":33.0,"endTime":35.64,"body":"much anticipated, giving the build-up to this,"},{"speaker":"Guy Miller, Chief Market Strategist \u0026 Economist, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":35.64,"endTime":38.16,"body":"with the comments from the US President, of"},{"speaker":"Guy Miller, Chief Market Strategist \u0026 Economist, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":38.16,"endTime":40.84,"body":"course, appointed by the US president, as was his"},{"speaker":"Guy Miller, Chief Market Strategist \u0026 Economist, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":40.84,"endTime":43.8,"body":"predecessor, Jay Powell."},{"speaker":"Guy Miller, Chief Market Strategist \u0026 Economist, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":43.8,"endTime":46.28,"body":"Firstly, what were you expecting and what"},{"speaker":"Guy Miller, Chief Market Strategist \u0026 Economist, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":46.28,"endTime":48.36,"body":"was maybe the surprise at that very first"},{"speaker":"Guy Miller, Chief Market Strategist \u0026 Economist, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":48.36,"endTime":49.12,"body":"meeting?"},{"speaker":"Guy Miller, Chief Market Strategist \u0026 Economist, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":49.16,"endTime":51.04,"body":"Well look, to the question what we were"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":51.04,"endTime":53.92,"body":"expecting, probably like many of us,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":53.92,"endTime":57.12,"body":"given the whole discussion about Trump nominating"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":57.12,"endTime":60.84,"body":"Kevin Warsh after a long discussion,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":60.84,"endTime":63.52,"body":"probably everybody was expecting a slightly"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":63.52,"endTime":66.32,"body":"dovish-fed chair, meaning leaning towards"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":66.32,"endTime":68.92,"body":"rate cuts, also based on some arguments"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":68.92,"endTime":71.52,"body":"that Kevin Warshe himself made, I mean remember"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":71.52,"endTime":73.96,"body":"he was quite vocal"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":74.0,"endTime":75.44,"body":"about emphasizing."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":75.44,"endTime":78.76,"body":"The potential productivity gains coming"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":78.76,"endTime":81.32,"body":"from AI, which means we could have economic"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":81.32,"endTime":84.2,"body":"growth without necessarily stoking"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":84.2,"endTime":86.4,"body":"more inflation, which was kind of leaning towards"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":86.44,"endTime":87.52,"body":"a more of which then."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":87.52,"endTime":90.12,"body":"In fact, even more than that, we had,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":90.12,"endTime":92.12,"body":"in the buildup to this, almost every contender"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":92.12,"endTime":94.68,"body":"was trying to out-dove the other one because"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":94.68,"endTime":97.0,"body":"they all knew the president wanted rates to be"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":97.0,"endTime":97.96,"body":"coming down."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":97.96,"endTime":100.56,"body":"I think Donald Trump was quite clear on that one."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":100.6,"endTime":102.36,"body":"So no, clearly, I think that came as a surprise"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":102.4,"endTime":104.96,"body":"that he did"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":104.96,"endTime":107.6,"body":"not only not mention rate cuts, he basically"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":107.64,"endTime":110.16,"body":"also didn't fight back against, for example,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":110.2,"endTime":112.84,"body":"the quite hawkish shift by his committee"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":112.84,"endTime":115.48,"body":"members. Remember, nine dots,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":115.52,"endTime":117.96,"body":"nine committee members now actually see rates"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":117.96,"endTime":119.32,"body":"higher by year-end."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":119.36,"endTime":121.96,"body":"Some even see two rate hikes or three rate"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":122.0,"endTime":123.32,"body":"hike, so he didn't push back."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":123.36,"endTime":126.2,"body":"Also, he didn't provide his own forecast."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":126.2,"endTime":128.72,"body":"And even the speech itself was quite"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":128.72,"endTime":131.64,"body":"hawkish, I mean he emphasized the price stability"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":131.64,"endTime":134.08,"body":"about a dozen times and that's right,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":134.08,"endTime":136.72,"body":"I means that is the Fed's main job."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":136.72,"endTime":139.2,"body":"And he also acknowledged that the Fed has failed"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":139.2,"endTime":141.68,"body":"in reaching its inflation targets for five years"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":141.68,"endTime":144.64,"body":"in a row and based on the latest statements,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":144.64,"endTime":146.48,"body":"the latest projections, they probably will fail"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":146.48,"endTime":148.64,"body":"again this year and maybe even next year."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":148.64,"endTime":151.88,"body":"So emphasizing this"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":151.88,"endTime":154.56,"body":"goal, this return to creating,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":154.56,"endTime":156.12,"body":"to reaching price stability."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":156.16,"endTime":158.92,"body":"Was in itself quite a hawkish message and that"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":158.92,"endTime":161.32,"body":"probably was one of the biggest surprises coming"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":161.32,"endTime":161.84,"body":"from the ladies."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":161.84,"endTime":164.32,"body":"I mean, he went out of his way almost to say"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":164.32,"endTime":167.0,"body":"that the Fed has missed for five"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":167.0,"endTime":169.52,"body":"consecutive years that part"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":169.52,"endTime":170.84,"body":"of their mandate."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":170.84,"endTime":173.52,"body":"So I'm not sure if that's what the President was"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":173.52,"endTime":175.16,"body":"expecting to hear."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":175.16,"endTime":179.0,"body":"So what was the tone that"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":179.0,"endTime":181.52,"body":"Warsh was trying to present"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":181.52,"endTime":183.68,"body":"here? Was he trying to win over the investor"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":183.68,"endTime":186.0,"body":"base? I mean he'd already had an agreement with"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":186.0,"endTime":187.48,"body":"the President, you know, I need the credibility,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":187.48,"endTime":189.52,"body":"I have to go in tough to begin with."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":189.52,"endTime":192.08,"body":"Or am I being too cynical about"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":192.08,"endTime":192.4,"body":"it all?"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":192.4,"endTime":194.48,"body":"Look, I don't know whether there has been any"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":194.48,"endTime":197.2,"body":"pre-arranged agreements how to"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":197.2,"endTime":199.92,"body":"enter the new"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":199.92,"endTime":202.68,"body":"role as a Fed chair, but quite clearly the"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":202.68,"endTime":205.32,"body":"message came across slightly differently,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":205.32,"endTime":207.68,"body":"clearly more hawkish as I mentioned than what"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":207.68,"endTime":208.84,"body":"many expected."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":208.84,"endTime":212.28,"body":"But I personally think it's a positive because,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":212.28,"endTime":214.84,"body":"and maybe that's also why he did it, I He was"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":214.84,"endTime":216.92,"body":"expecting him to be..."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":216.92,"endTime":219.6,"body":"Well, let's say the Trump nominated chair"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":219.6,"endTime":222.08,"body":"that is now following Powell, which, by the"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":222.08,"endTime":224.6,"body":"way, was also nominated by Trump."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":224.6,"endTime":227.24,"body":"So he probably felt the need"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":227.24,"endTime":230.32,"body":"to place himself as being independent."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":230.32,"endTime":233.32,"body":"He's not simply coming in as a Trump nominee,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":233.32,"endTime":236.52,"body":"ready to cut the rates, whatever happens."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":236.52,"endTime":238.76,"body":"So clearly for me, that was a statement, look,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":238.76,"endTime":241.32,"body":"I'm here, I am independent, I do"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":241.32,"endTime":244.32,"body":"look at the data, and I'm really..."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":244.32,"endTime":246.84,"body":"Focusing on the two main mandates,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":246.84,"endTime":249.16,"body":"which is maximum employment and price stability,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":249.16,"endTime":251.0,"body":"but currently it's mostly about price stability."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":251.0,"endTime":254.0,"body":"So for me that was setting a signal to really"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":254.0,"endTime":256.68,"body":"gain credibility after all the speculation"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":256.68,"endTime":258.96,"body":"that we have seen and heard and read about"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":258.96,"endTime":260.8,"body":"pre-war."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":260.8,"endTime":263.32,"body":"So for that was probably the main"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":263.32,"endTime":266.04,"body":"reason why he came across as more hawkish"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":266.04,"endTime":266.96,"body":"than many expect."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":266.96,"endTime":268.96,"body":"I know we've written and we've spoken about the"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":269.0,"endTime":271.08,"body":"fact when we heard that it was going to be worse,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":271.08,"endTime":273.72,"body":"you've got the top job, that we"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":273.72,"endTime":275.4,"body":"applauded that. We felt that he was a known"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":275.4,"endTime":277.88,"body":"quantity. We felt he upheld"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":277.92,"endTime":280.52,"body":"the values of an independent central"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":280.52,"endTime":281.52,"body":"bank."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":282.12,"endTime":285.08,"body":"And we also believed that he was going be very"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":285.08,"endTime":288.2,"body":"data dependent, everything that you want from"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":288.24,"endTime":289.6,"body":"a Fed chair."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":289.64,"endTime":291.8,"body":"So I guess from what we've seen in that initial"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":291.8,"endTime":294.36,"body":"outing, all of these boxes were kind of"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":294.4,"endTime":295.84,"body":"ticked. He the size."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":295.84,"endTime":298.12,"body":"The importance of the Fed, he emphasized the"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":298.12,"endTime":300.44,"body":"importance of data and he emphasized the"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":300.44,"endTime":303.76,"body":"importance of that kind of independent"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":303.76,"endTime":305.52,"body":"way of thinking about things."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":305.52,"endTime":307.96,"body":"But we also know that in the past, he has been"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":307.96,"endTime":309.96,"body":"somewhat hawkish in terms of the Feds balance"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":309.96,"endTime":312.2,"body":"sheet. We know that he's speaking about setting"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":312.2,"endTime":313.36,"body":"up committees."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":313.36,"endTime":315.16,"body":"Now, maybe you could elaborate a little bit on"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":315.16,"endTime":317.64,"body":"this because all I heard was there's what"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":317.64,"endTime":320.08,"body":"five committees being sent up on a"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":320.08,"endTime":322.36,"body":"multitude of different topics."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":322.36,"endTime":324.44,"body":"So what is he trying to achieve?"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":324.48,"endTime":326.44,"body":"Why do they matter and what do you think the"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":326.48,"endTime":327.44,"body":"outcomes are going to be?"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":327.44,"endTime":330.04,"body":"Look, I mean, you mentioned these five committees"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":330.08,"endTime":332.56,"body":"or task forces that have been implemented and I"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":332.6,"endTime":335.04,"body":"think it's not new if you come in as a, well, as"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":335.04,"endTime":337.84,"body":"a Fetcher or as any new CIO in a company,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":337.88,"endTime":340.64,"body":"you probably want to, well not maybe necessarily"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":340.64,"endTime":343.04,"body":"shake things up, but you want to review things,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":343.08,"endTime":345.76,"body":"you want to fundamentally reconsider maybe"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":345.76,"endTime":348.32,"body":"some things to do and the"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":348.36,"endTime":350.84,"body":"best time to do so is when you enter the job."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":350.84,"endTime":353.56,"body":"So yes, he did announce or implement"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":353.6,"endTime":355.04,"body":"five task forces."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":355.04,"endTime":357.48,"body":"The balance sheet is certainly one of them."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":357.48,"endTime":360.16,"body":"I mean he was quite critical about balance sheet"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":360.16,"endTime":362.68,"body":"expansion And he probably still is but that"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":362.68,"endTime":365.04,"body":"doesn't mean we'll see a shrinking balance sheet"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":365.04,"endTime":367.52,"body":"on day one And that's that's I think that's the"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":367.52,"endTime":370.2,"body":"other important takeaway He did announce these"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":370.2,"endTime":372.2,"body":"talk forces, but he also announced that he does"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":372.2,"endTime":374.68,"body":"not necessarily expect any results before"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":374.68,"endTime":377.6,"body":"year-end So that also probably"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":377.6,"endTime":379.52,"body":"created some stability."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":379.52,"endTime":382.44,"body":"I'm in some some let's say"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":382.44,"endTime":385.0,"body":"predictability in the markets that he's not"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":385.0,"endTime":387.16,"body":"here to fundamentally turn around and change"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":387.2,"endTime":389.28,"body":"things by day one."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":389.32,"endTime":392.28,"body":"On the other hand, another task force was also"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":392.32,"endTime":394.52,"body":"is dealing with communications."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":394.52,"endTime":397.6,"body":"And I think that's the one thing where we already"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":397.64,"endTime":399.2,"body":"saw the biggest change."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":399.24,"endTime":400.56,"body":"I mean, look at the Fed statement."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":400.56,"endTime":403.0,"body":"It's much shorter, much more concise,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":403.04,"endTime":405.32,"body":"kind of precise, maybe if you want to put that"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":405.36,"endTime":408.32,"body":"way than the statements before."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":408.32,"endTime":410.96,"body":"It's also, he refused, as I mentioned,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":410.96,"endTime":413.64,"body":"to provide the prediction by"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":413.68,"endTime":415.8,"body":"himself. I mean, obviously let the others provide"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":415.84,"endTime":417.48,"body":"their dots and forecasts."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":417.52,"endTime":420.36,"body":"He doesn't want to provide any forward guidance."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":420.4,"endTime":422.56,"body":"And quite honestly, I think that also makes sense"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":422.56,"endTime":425.04,"body":"because this forward guidance, the dot plot,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":425.04,"endTime":427.84,"body":"they were created at a time when, it"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":427.84,"endTime":430.72,"body":"seems like a very long time ago, we had zero"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":430.76,"endTime":432.8,"body":"rates in some parts, negative rates."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":432.84,"endTime":435.52,"body":"So there needed to be some pre-commitment that"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":435.52,"endTime":438.32,"body":"the Fed didn't want change or touch rates, but."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":438.32,"endTime":440.96,"body":"Nowadays, where we are in a more normal"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":440.96,"endTime":443.92,"body":"business environment, a more normal economic"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":443.92,"endTime":446.4,"body":"cycle, I think it's first of"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":446.4,"endTime":448.88,"body":"all doesn't work because data change, the"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":448.88,"endTime":451.52,"body":"world changes and I think it doesn't"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":451.52,"endTime":454.04,"body":"add to credibility committing to something that"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":454.04,"endTime":456.16,"body":"you then have to change or maybe even feel"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":456.16,"endTime":458.76,"body":"obliged to follow up on despite the change"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":458.76,"endTime":461.84,"body":"in data. So I think getting rid of that"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":461.84,"endTime":464.56,"body":"maybe reduces transparency to"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":464.56,"endTime":466.24,"body":"some degree can increase volatility."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":466.24,"endTime":467.6,"body":"But it's not the bad thing."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":467.64,"endTime":470.08,"body":"I think it leaves the Fed more"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":470.12,"endTime":472.56,"body":"nimble, more active, more"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":472.56,"endTime":474.68,"body":"able to react to incoming data."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":474.68,"endTime":476.96,"body":"But I think your point is a very valid one."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":476.96,"endTime":478.72,"body":"I think there's a time and a place for forward"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":478.72,"endTime":481.52,"body":"guidance. When you're in a very"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":481.52,"endTime":483.08,"body":"challenging environment, you want to build"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":483.08,"endTime":485.04,"body":"confidence, you want to set the stage, you to"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":485.04,"endTime":487.12,"body":"give direct travel, and it works."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":487.12,"endTime":489.4,"body":"When you are in more normal times, I would say"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":489.4,"endTime":491.52,"body":"that you want market forces to be working."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":491.52,"endTime":494.04,"body":"And it's funny, we mentioned there the passing"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":494.04,"endTime":495.6,"body":"of Alan Greenspan."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":495.6,"endTime":498.28,"body":"But I remember the days when the only guidance"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":498.28,"endTime":500.92,"body":"you got was how thick is Alan Greenspans"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":500.92,"endTime":503.16,"body":"briefcase when he went to the Fed?"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":503.16,"endTime":505.36,"body":"Because. That kind of gave you an indication of"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":505.36,"endTime":506.72,"body":"how many documents are in there."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":506.76,"endTime":507.8,"body":"That means they've got more to speak about."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":507.84,"endTime":510.24,"body":"That means there could be a change in policy."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":510.28,"endTime":512.76,"body":"But it was up for the financial markets to"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":512.8,"endTime":515.24,"body":"interpret the data rather than being, as"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":515.28,"endTime":516.6,"body":"I would put it, spoon fed."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":516.6,"endTime":519.08,"body":"So I would take that as a positive,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":519.08,"endTime":521.6,"body":"but will that lead to more market volatility?"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":521.6,"endTime":524.16,"body":"Have markets forgotten how to interpret"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":524.2,"endTime":526.28,"body":"the data and what the Fed may be thinking."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":526.28,"endTime":528.8,"body":"Well, yes, first, the answer I think is yes,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":528.8,"endTime":531.36,"body":"it probably will create some more volatility,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":531.36,"endTime":534.56,"body":"but that's not in itself a bad thing because"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":534.56,"endTime":537.04,"body":"having this kind of"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":537.04,"endTime":539.6,"body":"stable, almost pre-committed major"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":539.6,"endTime":542.2,"body":"central bank, it's probably also,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":542.2,"endTime":544.24,"body":"well, first of all, it did lead to maybe some"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":544.24,"endTime":546.16,"body":"complacency, as you pointed out."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":546.16,"endTime":548.64,"body":"Maybe market participants, investors felt"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":548.64,"endTime":551.12,"body":"like less of"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":551.12,"endTime":553.4,"body":"a need to really dig into data."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":553.4,"endTime":555.92,"body":"And it also probably put some pressure on the"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":555.92,"endTime":558.52,"body":"Fed committee, on the fed members to maybe follow"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":558.56,"endTime":561.08,"body":"up on their guidance, although they might"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":561.08,"endTime":563.68,"body":"actually didn't fully believe in it anymore"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":563.68,"endTime":565.32,"body":"because the data has changed."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":565.32,"endTime":567.92,"body":"So clearly it is, in my view, it's a step"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":567.92,"endTime":569.24,"body":"in the right direction."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":569.28,"endTime":571.4,"body":"If you talk about efficient markets, about price"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":571.4,"endTime":573.6,"body":"finding processes, maybe not everybody will like"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":573.64,"endTime":575.88,"body":"it because yes, it is less transparent."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":575.92,"endTime":577.4,"body":"It is leading to more volatility."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":577.4,"endTime":580.0,"body":"And in that regard, it probably is a little bit."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":580.04,"endTime":582.76,"body":"Of a time trial back to the Greenspan era,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":582.76,"endTime":585.4,"body":"which, by the way, is also one central"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":585.44,"endTime":588.0,"body":"banker that was admired or is being"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":588.04,"endTime":590.32,"body":"admired by Kevin Morrish."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":590.32,"endTime":592.88,"body":"So clearly, we"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":592.88,"endTime":596.08,"body":"do see the potential of a substantial"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":596.12,"endTime":598.84,"body":"change in the way the Fed works, the Fed"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":598.88,"endTime":601.56,"body":"communicates, and maybe even"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":601.6,"endTime":604.52,"body":"the emphasis of different objectives."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":604.56,"endTime":606.72,"body":"I mean, price stability should always have been"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":606.72,"endTime":609.32,"body":"the main or one of the main objectives by"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":609.36,"endTime":611.64,"body":"the Fed, but... Looking back, and as we discussed"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":611.64,"endTime":614.32,"body":"briefly, having failed for five and maybe"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":614.32,"endTime":616.76,"body":"six years in a row just tells me that maybe"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":616.76,"endTime":618.76,"body":"the emphasis was not strong enough."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":618.76,"endTime":619.36,"body":"So going back to that."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":619.36,"endTime":620.88,"body":"But here's the question, it's fine talking about"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":620.88,"endTime":622.48,"body":"and setting all these committees and we can come"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":622.48,"endTime":624.8,"body":"back to what the outcomes of these committees are"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":624.8,"endTime":627.28,"body":"going to be, but he made the point that they've"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":627.28,"endTime":630.36,"body":"missed for five consecutive years and"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":630.36,"endTime":633.08,"body":"you implied that they're going to miss again."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":633.08,"endTime":635.64,"body":"So why are they"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":635.64,"endTime":638.6,"body":"not moving now? I mean, they've moved from"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":638.6,"endTime":641.96,"body":"a dovish leaning Fed,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":642.0,"endTime":644.12,"body":"or I guess in terms of narrative, to something"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":644.16,"endTime":646.6,"body":"more hawkish. But you could surely challenge"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":646.64,"endTime":648.28,"body":"them and say, well, if you look at the data, if"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":648.32,"endTime":650.88,"body":"look at where inflation is, way above target and"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":650.88,"endTime":653.36,"body":"rising, if really believe in"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":653.36,"endTime":655.92,"body":"price stability, isn't it time that you"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":655.96,"endTime":657.92,"body":"stepped in on day and you move rates."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":657.92,"endTime":659.48,"body":"I mean, that's a very good point, but I think"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":659.48,"endTime":661.96,"body":"that's probably where I think at least where"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":662.0,"endTime":664.4,"body":"markets got a little bit ahead of themselves."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":664.44,"endTime":666.56,"body":"I mean emphasizing price ability in the long"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":666.6,"endTime":668.52,"body":"term, that is exactly what the Fed should do or"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":668.52,"endTime":671.04,"body":"what any Fed share should do, but we're just in"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":671.08,"endTime":673.4,"body":"the middle of very substantial changes."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":673.4,"endTime":675.64,"body":"I mean a lot of the inflation pressure, the price"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":675.68,"endTime":677.84,"body":"pressure that you mentioned was created, well"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":677.84,"endTime":679.96,"body":"first of all we had a wave of tariffs last year,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":679.96,"endTime":681.96,"body":"remember that? And then obviously the whole"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":682.0,"endTime":683.68,"body":"crisis, the war in the Middle East, which"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":683.68,"endTime":686.64,"body":"triggered energy and that also has"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":686.64,"endTime":689.24,"body":"been having an impact on headline inflation, not"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":689.24,"endTime":692.0,"body":"so much on other parts of inflation."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":692.0,"endTime":694.84,"body":"So the spillover has so far been quite limited."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":694.84,"endTime":697.28,"body":"And if you look at other mixed or"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":697.28,"endTime":699.64,"body":"other economic data, the signal is quite mixed."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":699.64,"endTime":702.08,"body":"Yes, we did have a series of relatively strong"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":702.08,"endTime":705.88,"body":"pre-old numbers, but at the same time,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":705.88,"endTime":707.64,"body":"employment components within other business"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":707.64,"endTime":709.68,"body":"services like the ISM manufacturing, the ISN"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":709.68,"endTime":711.56,"body":"service, or particularly also small business"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":711.56,"endTime":713.48,"body":"survey, Hiring intentions."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":713.48,"endTime":715.48,"body":"Basically at the lowest in a decade, if you"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":715.48,"endTime":717.96,"body":"exclude a few months during COVID."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":717.96,"endTime":720.84,"body":"Capex intentions, the lowest since 2009."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":720.84,"endTime":723.32,"body":"So it's not clear where,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":723.32,"endTime":725.88,"body":"let's say, it's not, we're not in"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":725.88,"endTime":727.84,"body":"an overheating economy per se."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":727.84,"endTime":730.44,"body":"So I think it's the right thing to emphasize"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":730.44,"endTime":733.0,"body":"price stability, to signal the willingness"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":733.0,"endTime":734.2,"body":"to high grades."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":734.2,"endTime":736.72,"body":"But just to do it right now seems to be a"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":736.72,"endTime":736.84,"body":"bit."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":736.84,"endTime":739.64,"body":"So a bit more time is no bad thing, but I mean,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":739.68,"endTime":741.36,"body":"how do you think that, I mean the Fed is unusual"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":741.4,"endTime":743.28,"body":"in having this kind of dual mandate, full"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":743.32,"endTime":744.64,"body":"employment and stable pricing."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":745.96,"endTime":747.76,"body":"Is it an asymmetric balance there?"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":747.76,"endTime":749.84,"body":"Is it, you implied earlier that you think the"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":749.84,"endTime":752.32,"body":"price stability is a thing that should or"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":752.32,"endTime":754.48,"body":"will dominate. Is that really how you see it"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":754.48,"endTime":754.8,"body":"with..."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":754.8,"endTime":757.4,"body":"Well, that's generally what I"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":757.44,"endTime":759.76,"body":"think central banks should do."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":759.76,"endTime":762.16,"body":"I mean, they were created to manage monetary"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":762.2,"endTime":764.68,"body":"policy, which means they should keep a"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":764.72,"endTime":767.12,"body":"lid on price pressure or actually keep price"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":767.16,"endTime":769.76,"body":"stability. Now, of course, that always came"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":769.8,"endTime":772.2,"body":"with a tag. That doesn't mean that they should"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":772.2,"endTime":774.64,"body":"create recessions or they should create massive"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":774.68,"endTime":776.52,"body":"spikes in unemployment. That's how the dual"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":776.52,"endTime":777.72,"body":"mandate came across."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":777.72,"endTime":780.72,"body":"But clearly price stability,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":780.76,"endTime":781.84,"body":"monetary policy."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":781.84,"endTime":784.36,"body":"To create a stable price environment"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":784.36,"endTime":786.88,"body":"is at the core of every central"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":786.88,"endTime":789.68,"body":"bank. So yes, I think, and that were"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":789.68,"endTime":792.28,"body":"Warsh's words himself, I mean, they have"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":792.28,"endTime":794.96,"body":"maybe deviated a bit too much away from,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":794.96,"endTime":797.48,"body":"from guaranteeing price stability, having"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":797.48,"endTime":799.96,"body":"failed five years in a row, failing six years"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":799.96,"endTime":802.76,"body":"in a roll. So yeah, I thing moving back towards"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":802.76,"endTime":805.4,"body":"putting more emphasis on price stability is"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":805.4,"endTime":807.16,"body":"the right thing to do. And I think that's what we"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":807.16,"endTime":808.36,"body":"have to expect from Kevin Warsh."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":808.36,"endTime":809.48,"body":"At least."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":809.48,"endTime":812.0,"body":"Based on what he said during the press"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":812.0,"endTime":812.2,"body":"call."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":812.24,"endTime":814.76,"body":"So on the build up to his nomination,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":814.8,"endTime":817.68,"body":"he was quite vocal about why"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":817.68,"endTime":819.64,"body":"he wouldn't be hiking rates."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":819.64,"endTime":822.44,"body":"And that was centering upon the"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":822.48,"endTime":825.12,"body":"notion that all this IT spend, the"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":825.16,"endTime":827.76,"body":"AI was going to lead to big improvements in"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":827.76,"endTime":830.28,"body":"productivity. And therefore, as a result of that,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":830.28,"endTime":832.24,"body":"actually that was going to take away some of the"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":832.28,"endTime":833.56,"body":"worries about bad inflation."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":835.0,"endTime":836.32,"body":"Has that view changed?"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":836.32,"endTime":838.68,"body":"He didn't mention productivity, we kind of"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":838.68,"endTime":841.28,"body":"touched on that. Is he really a"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":841.32,"endTime":842.48,"body":"believer or?"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":842.48,"endTime":843.88,"body":"How is he balancing this?"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":843.88,"endTime":845.72,"body":"How do you think he'll play?"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":845.72,"endTime":848.56,"body":"Will he allow inflation to run hotter, even"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":848.6,"endTime":851.08,"body":"given what we've just said, because at some point"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":851.08,"endTime":853.76,"body":"he truly believes that productivity will kick in."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":853.76,"endTime":856.32,"body":"Well, obviously it's hard to say, because as you"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":856.32,"endTime":858.36,"body":"mentioned, we have these two statements."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":858.36,"endTime":860.72,"body":"One is the actual statement and one is the"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":860.72,"endTime":862.68,"body":"non-statement during the press conference, which"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":862.68,"endTime":863.88,"body":"was also a bit striking."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":863.88,"endTime":866.72,"body":"I mean, he didn't push back against some hawkish"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":866.72,"endTime":869.32,"body":"members or hawkic comments, which he did"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":869.32,"endTime":871.6,"body":"before he became the Fed Chair."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":871.6,"endTime":874.08,"body":"So personally, I think he is a believer."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":874.08,"endTime":876.56,"body":"I am a believer, I do think AI"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":876.56,"endTime":879.36,"body":"will be here to fundamentally change"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":879.36,"endTime":883.28,"body":"the way we work, the way economies function."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":883.28,"endTime":885.76,"body":"By increasing productivity,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":885.8,"endTime":887.88,"body":"which kind of puts a lid on inflation to some"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":887.92,"endTime":889.4,"body":"degree. But that's a longer-term issue."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":889.44,"endTime":890.72,"body":"You mentioned it yourself."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":890.72,"endTime":892.92,"body":"Now, the Fed has to take both into account the"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":892.92,"endTime":894.88,"body":"longer-terms structural changes, but also the"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":894.92,"endTime":896.76,"body":"short-term potential spillovers."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":896.8,"endTime":898.24,"body":"And there we have more good news."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":898.24,"endTime":900.56,"body":"I mean, inflation expectations, short-term and"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":900.56,"endTime":902.6,"body":"mid-term and long-term, have fallen quite"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":902.6,"endTime":905.48,"body":"substantially. That's another signal for me that"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":905.52,"endTime":908.24,"body":"means the Fed have more time to wait."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":908.28,"endTime":910.76,"body":"For example, is the labor market really"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":910.76,"endTime":913.48,"body":"as tight and as strong as payroll suggests or"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":913.48,"endTime":916.24,"body":"is it maybe just another distortion"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":916.28,"endTime":918.0,"body":"that we have seen many times?"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":918.0,"endTime":920.56,"body":"So I do think he is a believer, but I do you"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":920.56,"endTime":922.68,"body":"think he's serious about price stability."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":922.68,"endTime":924.92,"body":"But being serious about both of these issues"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":924.92,"endTime":927.76,"body":"doesn't mean you have to act immediately because"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":927.76,"endTime":930.16,"body":"both are longer term issues and I think they"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":930.2,"endTime":932.64,"body":"still have the time to wait for more incoming"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":932.68,"endTime":933.2,"body":"data."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":933.2,"endTime":935.36,"body":"Now we also said that we believe that market"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":935.36,"endTime":937.88,"body":"pricing is really important and it gives us"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":937.92,"endTime":940.12,"body":"a good indicator of what could or what should"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":940.16,"endTime":941.28,"body":"happen."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":941.28,"endTime":943.44,"body":"You could also argue it's a constraint on many of"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":943.44,"endTime":945.36,"body":"the policymakers as well, depending on what the"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":945.36,"endTime":947.28,"body":"bond and equity markets are doing."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":947.28,"endTime":950.08,"body":"If I look at the pricing and the rates market"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":950.12,"endTime":952.56,"body":"today, and certainly following the"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":954.56,"endTime":956.04,"body":"speech, it shifted."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":956.04,"endTime":958.72,"body":"The market is telling us that"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":958.76,"endTime":961.52,"body":"he's going to hike two times before the end of"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":961.52,"endTime":962.76,"body":"the Thank you very much for your attention. Thank"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":961.52,"endTime":962.76,"body":"you all for being here."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":962.76,"endTime":965.64,"body":"That's not how you interpret it."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":965.64,"endTime":967.72,"body":"So is he being confusing?"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":967.72,"endTime":968.96,"body":"Is the market simply wrong?"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":970.0,"endTime":972.92,"body":"Or do you think that you may have to modify"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":972.92,"endTime":974.08,"body":"your view?"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":974.08,"endTime":976.6,"body":"Well, look, clearly, I mean, following the"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":976.6,"endTime":979.12,"body":"series of relatively robust labor market data and"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":979.12,"endTime":981.64,"body":"then particularly also the Fed"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":981.64,"endTime":984.2,"body":"statement and Kevin Warsh's press conference."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":984.2,"endTime":985.88,"body":"So it's not only about Kevin Warsch."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":985.88,"endTime":988.0,"body":"I mean as I mentioned, nine members have shifted"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":988.0,"endTime":990.76,"body":"from no rate changes or no changes"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":990.76,"endTime":993.68,"body":"to higher rates."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":993.68,"endTime":996.4,"body":"Now I also think that this obviously"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":996.4,"endTime":998.32,"body":"was still under the impression of everything that"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":998.32,"endTime":999.68,"body":"was happening."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":999.68,"endTime":1001.16,"body":"I mean energy prices spiked."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1001.16,"endTime":1003.04,"body":"And we have seen some."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1003.04,"endTime":1006.24,"body":"Sticky price inflation in other areas."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1006.24,"endTime":1007.68,"body":"But that could change again."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1007.68,"endTime":1010.48,"body":"And my view is exactly that probably the market"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1010.48,"endTime":1012.52,"body":"investors, maybe even some of the Fed members"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1012.52,"endTime":1014.24,"body":"have been carried away a little bit."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1014.24,"endTime":1016.88,"body":"And I would expect based on quite"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1016.88,"endTime":1019.68,"body":"a number of surveys and other data that"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1019.68,"endTime":1022.24,"body":"we are about to see maybe less"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1022.24,"endTime":1025.04,"body":"inflation pressure, lower price pressure."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1025.04,"endTime":1026.84,"body":"I mean, energy prices have fallen substantially."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1026.84,"endTime":1029.64,"body":"Even the labor market tended to be quite"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1029.64,"endTime":1031.08,"body":"light in summer months."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1031.08,"endTime":1034.0,"body":"Remember Particularly around youth unemployment,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1034.0,"endTime":1036.08,"body":"we have seen a little bit of an elevated level"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1036.08,"endTime":1037.52,"body":"over the past few summer seasons."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1037.52,"endTime":1040.0,"body":"So maybe that happens again, which means there"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1040.0,"endTime":1042.64,"body":"will be several reasons why the Fed does not"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1042.64,"endTime":1044.4,"body":"have to rush into rate hikes."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1044.4,"endTime":1047.12,"body":"But to your question, clearly the risk of"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1047.12,"endTime":1049.72,"body":"rate hike or of tighter monetary policy has"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1049.72,"endTime":1052.56,"body":"increased. I'm currently keeping my"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1052.56,"endTime":1055.32,"body":"view of no changes this year,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1055.32,"endTime":1057.92,"body":"but the risk having to be"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1057.92,"endTime":1059.72,"body":"adjusted clearly has increased"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1062.0,"endTime":1064.6,"body":"Just going back to these task forces"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1064.6,"endTime":1066.32,"body":"that we have, I mean, you mentioned there's five"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1066.32,"endTime":1068.44,"body":"of them. We spoke about a few of them, including"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1068.44,"endTime":1069.56,"body":"the communication side."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1070.88,"endTime":1072.28,"body":"Is this for show?"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1072.28,"endTime":1074.32,"body":"Is this, you know, you come in, you show you've"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1074.32,"endTime":1076.6,"body":"got all these committees set up and task force"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1076.6,"endTime":1079.08,"body":"set up, you take on board their"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1079.08,"endTime":1080.28,"body":"findings."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1080.28,"endTime":1081.4,"body":"What changes?"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1081.4,"endTime":1083.44,"body":"Do you think there will be real change?"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1083.44,"endTime":1085.48,"body":"We've seen some of the communication points, as"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1085.48,"endTime":1087.92,"body":"you have mentioned, but is this to kind of"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1087.92,"endTime":1090.72,"body":"clear the deck and start again or?"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1090.72,"endTime":1093.52,"body":"Is this more for show to be seen to"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1093.52,"endTime":1095.68,"body":"be going through the process of reviewing the"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1095.68,"endTime":1097.24,"body":"feds mandate and how it functions?"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1097.24,"endTime":1099.84,"body":"No, I honestly expect some of these task"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1099.88,"endTime":1102.52,"body":"force to come up with proposals and"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1102.56,"endTime":1105.12,"body":"solutions that eventually will lead to changes"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1105.12,"endTime":1107.08,"body":"within the Fed. I mean, we did see the"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1107.12,"endTime":1109.16,"body":"communication part has already changed even"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1109.2,"endTime":1111.52,"body":"before the task force was set up."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1111.52,"endTime":1114.08,"body":"The balance sheet has long been a topic that"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1114.12,"endTime":1116.56,"body":"Kevin Warsh was concerned about or was"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1116.6,"endTime":1118.88,"body":"kind of interested in, so I'm also expecting some"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1118.92,"endTime":1120.0,"body":"results there."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1120.04,"endTime":1122.52,"body":"Another task force deals with better ways"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1122.56,"endTime":1124.44,"body":"to get data. I mean."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1124.48,"endTime":1127.04,"body":"Well, we're living in 2026 now,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1127.08,"endTime":1129.52,"body":"I mean, we do have all sorts of real"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1129.56,"endTime":1132.0,"body":"time data, we can"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1132.04,"endTime":1134.48,"body":"use AI maybe to support our"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1134.52,"endTime":1137.76,"body":"models. So I think it makes sense to think about,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1137.76,"endTime":1140.72,"body":"is the Fed still working on the right"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1140.72,"endTime":1142.08,"body":"basis?"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1142.08,"endTime":1144.8,"body":"Are there better ways to get incoming data to get"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1144.8,"endTime":1146.36,"body":"closer to the business cycle?"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1146.36,"endTime":1148.44,"body":"So that's another one that absolutely makes"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1148.44,"endTime":1150.56,"body":"sense. The other inflation framework, I think"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1150.6,"endTime":1152.6,"body":"that's more of a general review."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1152.6,"endTime":1155.08,"body":"Probably every incoming Fed share had a"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1155.08,"endTime":1156.92,"body":"review of the inflation framework."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1156.92,"endTime":1159.6,"body":"Within that task, what I expect is a discussion"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1159.6,"endTime":1161.56,"body":"maybe around the inflation target, quite a"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1161.56,"endTime":1164.04,"body":"crucial one. Remember, having failed for five"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1164.04,"endTime":1166.96,"body":"years in a row, there was always discussion,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1166.96,"endTime":1169.44,"body":"would an incoming Fed maybe just lift inflation"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1169.44,"endTime":1171.08,"body":"target to, let's say, 3 percent?"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1171.08,"endTime":1173.16,"body":"I mean, that would be kind of the easy way out."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1173.16,"endTime":1175.64,"body":"But Kevin Warsh, again,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1175.64,"endTime":1178.32,"body":"was actually explicit on that one and said, look."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1178.36,"endTime":1180.84,"body":"Before reaching the actual 2% target,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1180.84,"endTime":1182.72,"body":"it doesn't make sense to increase the target to"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1182.76,"endTime":1184.84,"body":"3%. And I fully couldn't agree more to that"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1184.88,"endTime":1187.32,"body":"because doing so while not having reached"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1187.32,"endTime":1189.68,"body":"the former target would really undermine"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1189.72,"endTime":1192.32,"body":"credibility. So that is the one that I would"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1192.36,"endTime":1194.92,"body":"expect them to follow up as well."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1194.96,"endTime":1197.44,"body":"So those are really task force, they make sense"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1197.44,"endTime":1200.24,"body":"and that doesn't mean they"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1200.28,"endTime":1202.96,"body":"change everything that will be analyzed"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1203.0,"endTime":1205.12,"body":"and looked at. But some things probably will"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1205.12,"endTime":1207.92,"body":"change, some ways the"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1207.92,"endTime":1210.48,"body":"Fed works or gets data probably will change"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1210.48,"endTime":1213.04,"body":"and I still expect also to"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1213.04,"endTime":1216.32,"body":"the better, to a more efficient way to"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1216.32,"endTime":1218.44,"body":"monetary policy in the US."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1218.44,"endTime":1221.0,"body":"Now Jay Powell has stayed on at the Fed, no"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1221.0,"endTime":1222.88,"body":"longer chair, but he's still part of the"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1222.88,"endTime":1225.36,"body":"committee, and part of argument for him doing"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1225.36,"endTime":1228.0,"body":"so was he wanted to make sure the institution was"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1228.0,"endTime":1229.76,"body":"as strong as it can be."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1229.76,"endTime":1232.2,"body":"He obviously was pushing back against the threats"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1232.2,"endTime":1234.68,"body":"made towards the independence of the"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1234.68,"endTime":1235.88,"body":"Federal Reserve."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1235.88,"endTime":1238.68,"body":"How long do you think he stays now, and does he"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1238.68,"endTime":1241.16,"body":"have any impact in terms of the workings of"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1241.16,"endTime":1243.88,"body":"the Fed? I mean, if you take at face value, as"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1243.88,"endTime":1246.4,"body":"we do what Warsh said, you"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1246.4,"endTime":1247.76,"body":"would probably say it's in..."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1247.8,"endTime":1248.96,"body":"In safe hands."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1248.96,"endTime":1251.4,"body":"So is there now time for Powell"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1251.44,"endTime":1252.48,"body":"to move on?"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1252.52,"endTime":1253.76,"body":"And who would be the next member?"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1253.76,"endTime":1255.92,"body":"Would that change that dynamic significantly at"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1255.96,"endTime":1258.48,"body":"all in terms of the Doves versus the Hawks?"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1258.48,"endTime":1260.76,"body":"Well, look, first of all, I don't think that"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1260.8,"endTime":1263.52,"body":"you're right. I mean, I think as we discussed,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1263.52,"endTime":1265.2,"body":"I mean the messaging coming from Kevin Walsh"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1265.24,"endTime":1267.32,"body":"certainly is positive, probably should be taken"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1267.32,"endTime":1270.08,"body":"positive by Jay Powell."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1270.12,"endTime":1271.72,"body":"Nevertheless, I do not think that he now just"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1271.76,"endTime":1274.56,"body":"turns around and quits. I mean being one"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1274.6,"endTime":1277.36,"body":"of the few exceptions of former Fed"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1277.4,"endTime":1279.88,"body":"chair basically stepping back but"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1279.88,"endTime":1282.36,"body":"still remaining on board just for"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1282.36,"endTime":1284.04,"body":"a month, I dont think that makes sense."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1284.04,"endTime":1286.64,"body":"So I wouldn't expect him to now just..."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1286.68,"endTime":1288.8,"body":"To resign in the coming weeks and months, so"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1288.84,"endTime":1291.48,"body":"probably he's here to stay to see whether"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1291.48,"endTime":1294.0,"body":"really the Fed actually has the stability,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1294.0,"endTime":1296.6,"body":"has the credibility that really is close to his"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1296.6,"endTime":1299.36,"body":"heart. So, I wouldn't expect any changes"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1299.4,"endTime":1300.64,"body":"soon."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1300.64,"endTime":1302.92,"body":"He certainly has an influence because he's a very"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1302.96,"endTime":1305.0,"body":"experienced Fed member."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1305.04,"endTime":1307.64,"body":"He obviously was the Fed chair for a number of"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1307.68,"endTime":1310.2,"body":"years. But also according to"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1310.2,"endTime":1312.64,"body":"Powell himself, he doesn't want to"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1312.68,"endTime":1314.8,"body":"play a leading role. I mean, we don't."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1314.8,"endTime":1317.44,"body":"See all the inside works of the Fed, but I"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1317.48,"endTime":1320.2,"body":"do think he's truly honest about him"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1320.24,"endTime":1323.48,"body":"being interested in the"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1323.48,"endTime":1326.04,"body":"wellbeing of the fed itself, for that"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1326.04,"endTime":1328.76,"body":"stepping back, but taking up his role as"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1328.8,"endTime":1331.92,"body":"a serious Fed board member."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1331.92,"endTime":1334.32,"body":"So I think that definitely is to the benefit of"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1334.32,"endTime":1337.12,"body":"Of course, by staying on, he squeezed out Mirren,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1337.16,"endTime":1339.64,"body":"another Trump appointee, who was not"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1339.68,"endTime":1342.2,"body":"only dovish in rhetoric, but in terms of"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1342.24,"endTime":1345.0,"body":"his vote, he was voting for rate cuts."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1345.04,"endTime":1347.4,"body":"So that is something, again, we don't expect him"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1347.44,"endTime":1349.12,"body":"to be coming back anytime soon, or is that?"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1350.32,"endTime":1352.2,"body":"No, I wouldn't expect him to be back."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1352.24,"endTime":1354.88,"body":"I mean, unless obviously we get a vacancy"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1354.88,"endTime":1357.48,"body":"in the board, but I agree"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1357.48,"endTime":1360.04,"body":"that may or may not have been one of the main"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1360.04,"endTime":1362.16,"body":"reasons for Powell to stay, but clearly it was a"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1362.16,"endTime":1363.4,"body":"result."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1363.44,"endTime":1365.92,"body":"But quite honestly, I mean you can agree or"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1365.96,"endTime":1368.28,"body":"disagree with Stephen Mirren's view of the world"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1368.32,"endTime":1370.92,"body":"and monetary policy, but he clearly was kind"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1370.96,"endTime":1374.24,"body":"of an outlier with regard to his vote and"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1374.24,"endTime":1377.24,"body":"with Powell staying on and Mirren now leaving to"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1377.28,"endTime":1379.6,"body":"make place for war, that probably..."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1379.6,"endTime":1382.32,"body":"Brought back the comedy closer to maybe"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1382.36,"endTime":1383.36,"body":"a consensus."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1384.68,"endTime":1387.4,"body":"Tom, you've put this paper out."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1387.4,"endTime":1389.44,"body":"I think it's obviously really important because"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1389.44,"endTime":1392.4,"body":"so much hinges on the Federal Reserve,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1392.4,"endTime":1394.52,"body":"so much hinge on the credibility of the Federal"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1394.52,"endTime":1397.16,"body":"Reserve. Just to round this"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1397.16,"endTime":1399.88,"body":"off, what are the key takeaways?"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1399.88,"endTime":1402.52,"body":"What are the key things that as investors,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1402.52,"endTime":1405.44,"body":"as people who have exposure to US interest"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1405.44,"endTime":1407.72,"body":"rates, what is the messaging that you would want"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1407.72,"endTime":1408.68,"body":"to convey here?"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1408.68,"endTime":1410.12,"body":"Look, there's a couple of points."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1410.12,"endTime":1413.36,"body":"I mean, first of all, I think the key takeaway is"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1413.36,"endTime":1415.84,"body":"Warsh does not intend to be just a"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1415.84,"endTime":1419.6,"body":"yes man and just coming in as the dovish"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1419.6,"endTime":1421.6,"body":"Fed chair that he was perceived to be or"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1421.6,"endTime":1423.8,"body":"potentially perceived to, he wants to be"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1423.8,"endTime":1426.4,"body":"independent. He wants to emphasize"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1426.4,"endTime":1427.64,"body":"the Fed's credibility."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1427.64,"endTime":1430.24,"body":"He wants work on that and to do"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1430.24,"endTime":1432.72,"body":"so, they need to work on reaching the"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1432.72,"endTime":1434.24,"body":"price target, the inflation target."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1434.24,"endTime":1436.84,"body":"I truly think that's one of the key takeaways."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1436.84,"endTime":1439.64,"body":"Which also means that the Fed might"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1439.64,"endTime":1442.16,"body":"act a bit more hawkish than many"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1442.16,"endTime":1444.44,"body":"believed, even at the beginning of the year."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1444.44,"endTime":1447.04,"body":"And I think the third takeaway is,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1447.04,"endTime":1449.64,"body":"again, we briefly mentioned it, probably less"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1449.64,"endTime":1452.16,"body":"transparency, less forward guidance, which"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1452.16,"endTime":1454.36,"body":"means a bit of more volatility, which is not"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1454.36,"endTime":1455.56,"body":"necessarily a bad thing."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1455.56,"endTime":1458.04,"body":"It allows a more open discussion, a more"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1458.04,"endTime":1460.68,"body":"opened price-finding process,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1460.68,"endTime":1463.0,"body":"and I think those are the key takeaways I would"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1463.0,"endTime":1463.84,"body":"have from this. ."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1463.84,"endTime":1466.04,"body":"[Music starts]"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1463.84,"endTime":1466.04,"body":"Great. Well, I think it's some really interesting"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1466.04,"endTime":1467.4,"body":"insights in there."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1467.4,"endTime":1469.8,"body":"I would encourage all our viewers to take a look"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1469.8,"endTime":1471.6,"body":"at the paper, read it through, give us your"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1471.6,"endTime":1473.08,"body":"thoughts, opinions. Do you agree?"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1473.08,"endTime":1474.4,"body":"Do you disagree?"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1474.4,"endTime":1476.44,"body":"What's your thinking around that?"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1476.44,"endTime":1479.4,"body":"So we appreciate taking time to watch us today."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1479.4,"endTime":1481.84,"body":"Please read the paper and as always, like and"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1481.84,"endTime":1484.2,"body":"subscribe and you can see our full publications,"},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1484.2,"endTime":1485.56,"body":"as always on Zurich.com."},{"speaker":"Tom Liebi, Head of US \u0026 UK Market Strategy, Zurich Insurance Group","startTime":1487.44,"endTime":1489.76,"body":"[Music ends]"}]}