Halftime Profit Play: Mastering the Lay the Draw Strategy on Betfair

Unlock the secrets to smarter Betfair trading with "Halftime Profit Play: Mastering the Lay the Draw Strategy on Betfair" – your ultimate guide to maximizing profits by betting against draws at halftime. Whether you're a seasoned trader or just getting started in the world of sports betting exchanges, this podcast dives deep into the proven strategies and insider techniques that can transform your trading game.

What You'll Learn:

• Comprehensive Strategy Breakdown: Understand the fundamentals of the "Lay the Draw" approach, specifically tailored for halftime scenarios in football matches.
• Data-Driven Insights: Discover which key statistics and metrics are essential for making informed lay bets, including half-time scorelines, team performance trends, and league-specific draw rates.
• Step-by-Step Execution: Follow our detailed guides on when and how to place your lay bets, manage your trades, and implement effective risk management to safeguard your investments.

Transcript

0:00: Betfair breakthrough. 
 0:01: Halftime lay the draw strategies explained. 
 0:04: Welcome to another podcast from Betfair Trading Community.com, the home of good football trading. 
 0:10: Today I'm gonna talk about halftime lay the Draw strategies. 
 0:14: , it's gonna be a bit of a primer, I'm gonna give a bit of a tutorial. 
 0:17: I'm basically gonna tell you everything you need to know about halftime lay the draw strategies, which it is a strategy that's very popular amongst football traders on Betfair, and for good reason. 
 0:29: , so the important focus here is that a strategy like laying the draw at halftime is very specific. 
 0:39: You know, you're betting in the match odds market,, you're laying the draw at half time. 
 0:45: Now, if you don't know what that means, basically you're betting against a draw at half time. 
 0:51: , and the reason this is often valuable for Betfair traders is that you get much better odds if it's, if the match is drawing at half time. 
 0:59: Now, that's the first thing I'd say with this. 
 1:02: Before you start thinking about a lay the draw at halftime strategy, and this might seem obvious to some, you're gonna want the match to be a drawer at halftime. 
 1:11: If it's 2-0 at half time, well, the draw price is gonna be pretty high, you're not gonna be laying the drawer in that situation. 
 1:17: So, you know, you're, you're looking at a, we'll go through the stats in a bit more detail later on, but you're looking at a situation where you want that kind of nil-nil 11 scoreline. 
 1:26: . 
 1:29: Now, I think that lay the draw strategies are probably some of the most popular, if not the most popular among Betfair traders. 
 1:38: And I know that obviously it's, it's kind of a classic strategy, lay the draw. 
 1:43: It's been going for, you know, 20 years plus now on Betfair. 
 1:48: So why halftime lay the draw? 
 1:50: Well, I think that people have started to realize that if you lay the draw at kickoff, it's quite difficult because a lot of the times, the odds are 4.0 plus, and if the match ends a draw, well, you've got to then win 3 or 4 in a row just to break even. 
 2:07: And a strategy like that. 
 2:09: It's very difficult to make good money on. 
 2:12: The higher the draw odds, the less impact a goal has, so, you know. 
 2:18: Often will be the case that let's say two teams are fairly evenly matched and the draw odds are around, I don't know, 3.5, 4.0. 
 2:26: With a goal scored, the draw will go out a bit, but if it's early in the game, it won't go out that far because the market will think, well, it could still be a draw. 
 2:34: All we need is one goal to go the other way and there's a long, long way to go in this match. 
 2:41: So. 
 2:42: I think this is why lay the draw has kind of from the kickoff is less popular now than it used to be and perhaps why laying the draw at halftime is such a popular strategy. 
 2:55: So I'm gonna talk a little bit, and I know again a lot of you will be more advanced in this, but I'm gonna talk a little bit about the difference between backing and laying bets. 
 3:04: Backing is kind of what you would have always done at traditional bookmakers, where you went in, you placed your bet. 
 3:11: And that was it. 
 3:12: You were backing something to win. 
 3:14: However, laying is when you actually bet against something to win, you're betting on it to lose in theory. 
 3:21: And it's kind of why Betfair became so revolutionary and why Betfair is still kind of seen as the beacon of, you know, professional. 
 3:32: Sports betting and professional sports trading, and that's why it's just basically everyone calls it Betfair trading because you know, if you wanna make money trading, then you go to Betfair, and that's the place where you actually have an opportunity to make money. 
 3:46: Because as we know, bookmakers will shut accounts down as soon as you start doing well, that's not gonna happen on the Betfair exchange. 
 3:55: Why do people lay the draw? 
 3:57: So. 
 3:58: I think what people like in football is goals. 
 4:01: Yeah, so even betters, things like that, you might say, well, it doesn't matter what market is, surely you're just looking to make money. 
 4:08: Yes, that is an argument, and that is where we should what we should be thinking. 
 4:14: But, you know, even for me personally, I much prefer looking for goals than looking for teams not to score. 
 4:21: There's something enjoyable, more enjoyable about trading and and hoping for a goal and wanting a goal to go in. 
 4:28: Than sort of sitting there fretting every second that, you know, you've got a bet on unders knowing that any second a goal goes in and it completely screws up your bet. 
 4:39: So I think that's one of the reasons people lay the draw. 
 4:42: The other reason is that the odds on another goal are really short in football. 
 4:48: So, for example, at kickoff, often, if you just want to back a goal, which is, you know, similar to what lay the draw is. 
 4:58: You're often be betting at like 1 to 20 or something like that, 1.05, 1.06 because most matches have a goal. 
 5:06: So, you know, you'd need an incredibly high strike rate to make any money. 
 5:11: Where lay the draw came off was that people realized, well, hang on, if the draw price is quite low and there's a goal, it's gonna increase, no matter what. 
 5:20: And if there's a goal in most matches, then surely I can take advantage of that cos I can lay the draw. 
 5:26: And then green up if there's a go. 
 5:29: And Bob's your uncle, happy days. 
 5:32: So that's kind of where Lay the Draw came about. 
 5:34: I think that's the main reason that it's been used for a while as a betfair trading strategy and. 
 5:42: The reason people do it at halftime is because. 
 5:45: Over the course of a match, Oz depreciate, so. 
 5:50: The value of odds, so let's say the draw is 4.0 at kickoff. 
 5:54: Well, by half time, because there's not been a goal, the odds will have come in, perhaps to 2.8, 2, maybe as far as 2.5, depending on how the game's going and how slow and turgid it looks, that will have an impact on the odds. 
 6:09: But the important thing is the odds are much shorter than they were at kickoff. 
 6:13: Well now people are getting into a range where laying is quite palatable. 
 6:18: You know, if you're getting close to evens, hey, laying, you're not having to have massive liabilities. 
 6:24: Now if you're laying at 4.0, 5.0, well. 
 6:28: Just laying a tenner is gonna have you with a liability of 30 pounds loss or 40 pound loss. 
 6:35: If there's no goal. 
 6:36: And that's the difficulty of a strategy like this. 
 6:39: If there's no goal, it's a tough spot for you. 
 6:42: You know, do you take a loss late in the game knowing that in football a lot of goals are scored late on. 
 6:49: Or do you let it run? 
 6:51: And I think a lot of people like to let it run and I think. 
 6:55: Again, that probably explains the popularity of the halftime lay the draw because people don't want to have massive liabilities if they're letting a trade run. 
 7:05: So this is really important for lay the draw halftime strategies. 
 7:09: So I'm gonna go into now what kind of what we need to implement into the strategies to do well, and I'm gonna give you some statistical insights as well. 
 7:19: So, what we want to look for is historical data showing how often matches a level at half time. 
 7:26: And then aren't a draw in the end. 
 7:30: Now, you can do this on the Betfair trading Community.com football software. 
 7:35: All you need to do is put, you know, halftime draw into the filters and then say how often you want that to be the case. 
 7:43: So you might say, well show me matches where, you know, 50% of the time it's a draw at halftime. 
 7:50: And the software will be able to pick you those matches out. 
 7:54: Then the next question you want to ask is, OK, now show me matches where only. 
 8:01: I don't know, 20% end in a draw. 
 8:05: And so you will now have a, a filter or a strategy that will tell you, A, the percentage of games that draws at halftime, and then B will tell you how often the games actually often don't end in a draw, which is what you want, right? 
 8:22: Remember, if you're laying the draw at half time, you want that to not be a draw. 
 8:28: So if you're looking at the outright market when laying the draw, that's what you want to do. 
 8:32: You kind of want to go, well, how do they end? 
 8:35: However, if you're not looking at the outright market, and you're not just letting your bet run. 
 8:41: It doesn't matter as much. 
 8:43: What you're really interested in is goals, of course. 
 8:47: So, you would set up your strategy to say, show me game, you know, show me games today being played where historically the teams have had a lot of draws at halftime. 
 8:57: And then go on to not have a draw. 
 9:01: , and you can have the draw percentage, you know, at full time lower than, like I say, 20 or 25% for if you're doing the full time. 
 9:13: But then when you're looking at goals, you could say, well, I want to show me games where in the second half the teams, you know, overall in their matches average 2 goals. 
 9:24: A half or scoring, you know, 95% of the second half, so 90%, 95 is a bit high. 
 9:33: But again, you can see here there's a lot of options and there's a lot of ways of thinking about this, and this is what I want you to start to think about. 
 9:42: You know, if you want to do a halftime lay the draw strategy, well you're gonna want matches that are draws at halftime to start with, otherwise you're not gonna be able to do it. 
 9:51: And then after that you're gonna go, OK. 
 9:54: And if I'm just looking for the goals and I'm gonna trade out if there's a goal and green up, then I want matches where the teams score a lot in the second half. 
 10:03: And again, that's something you can put into your filters very easily on Betfair trading Community.com. 
 10:09: And the reason this matters is that this will help you assess the likelihood of a draw happening in the second half, or no goals being scored in the second half. 
 10:19: Cause worst case scenario for a later draw at halftime is that there's no second half goal because at no point then have you had an opportunity to green up. 
 10:30: So in that situation, you need to have a plan. 
 10:33: You need to find games where it doesn't happen often to start with. 
 10:37: And then you want to have a plan for if you get games where it feels like that. 
 10:42: So again, that's something to consider here. 
 10:45: Now, one thing you're gonna want to look at is which particular halftime score lines interest you. 
 10:51: Now you might just say, well, any draw's fine. 
 10:54: But I prefer it to be nil nil when I do it. 
 10:58: That's kind of my ideal scoreline,. 
 11:02: Some people prefer 11. 
 11:04: Again, this is up to you, you can go and test this, this is something that you might want to look at. 
 11:10: You, like I say, you might just say, well, I don't really care what the score is at halftime. 
 11:14: But what I really want you to think about is, do you prefer to enter at 0-0, 1122. 
 11:19: It's not often gonna be 31 or 2-2 at halftime. 
 11:22: You're probably gonna be looking at 0-0 or 1-1 mainly. 
 11:26: But you know, if your strategy is telling you these teams score a lot in the second half, maybe you don't care if it's 1-1. 
 11:32: , but they're kind of the frequency of halftime scores you're gonna want to look at. 
 11:38: , and you're gonna want to make sure that those nil nils and one ones don't end nil-nil and 11. 
 11:45: I think this is why nil-nil's a really good one to do this on, because you can go, well, OK, now show me that the team doesn't have nil nils, and then, you know, let's say. 
 11:58: Let's put this into practice as an example. 
 12:00: Let's say a match has come up on your filter, let's say Man United Liverpool. 
 12:06: And at half time, you know that it's very, very rare that these teams have 0-0 at full time, but it's 0-0 at half time. 
 12:16: And the software's telling you that 9 out of 10 times these teams will have a second half goal here. 
 12:22: And you go, OK, cool. 
 12:24: You go check second half goal odds, they're pretty short, OK. 
 12:27: Still potentially value but pretty short. 
 12:30: You go and look at halftime lay the draw and the draw is, you know, 2.4, something like that, and you go, wow, that's much more palatable. 
 12:37: I'll lay that. 
 12:38: Now. 
 12:40: Here's the situation, right? 
 12:43: Because you know that they don't have a lot of second half with no goals. 
 12:49: But you're trading in play. 
 12:51: You can actually look at the in place stats. 
 12:55: When you go over to, and I use bet 365 for this, you can go over and check bet 365. 
 13:00: has how many shots on target? 
 13:02: Has there been a few? 
 13:02: Has there been a few off target? 
 13:05: This will give you a really good indicator that the in-play stats are suggesting a goal. 
 13:11: Your pre-match stats are suggesting it won't end nil nil. 
 13:15: And so you've kind of, and I talk about, I know I talk about this a lot, but it's really important, you're kind of doubling up the power of the trade because you're going, OK, the pre-match and the in play line up, this could be a potential opportunity for me. 
 13:29: And the dream scenario in this spot, if you're letting the bet run, is that there's a really late goal to one of the teams. 
 13:37: And the draw odds fly out from 2.4 to like 78, 9.0, because it's so late in the match, and this will often actually happen. 
 13:46: You'll often get games like this where you're like, oh, there's never gonna be a goal, and in the 85th minute bang, and it goes. 
 13:52: So You wanna make sure that you're getting the right statistics put into your filters and the ones that suit your style of trading or the trade you're trying to make, and I've given some good examples here. 
 14:09: But let's have a little deeper look at statistical insights. 
 14:13: So, what you might want to look at as well is first half versus second half performance. 
 14:19: Analyze how the teams play in the first half compared to the second half, looking at goals scored and conceded, so. 
 14:28: One thing I would always want in this filter to add on is I want. 
 14:33: Total second half goals to be higher than the 1st half. 
 14:38: I want to know that these teams do score more in the second half. 
 14:43: Let's say I'm on at 1-1, right, it's 1-1 at halftime. 
 14:47: And then I go and look and. 
 14:49: Some of my stats are saying, yeah, there should be a 2nd half goal, but they actually score more in the first half than the 2nd. 
 14:56: Well, that would worry me a bit because I'll go. 
 14:59: These guys look like they might punch themselves out a bit. 
 15:03: They're scoring a lot in the first half and not in the 2nd. 
 15:06: And I'm going for a later draw at halftime where I need that second half goal. 
 15:10: OK, that's a bit of a red flag for me. 
 15:13: Look at this goal scored and conceded. 
 15:16: This gives you a really good indication of two things. 
 15:20: One, how many goals they scored in the second half. 
 15:23: And 2, like I say, whether they do score as many in the second half or not. 
 15:28: So that's something you're gonna probably want to add. 
 15:31: Then look at goals score before halftime. 
 15:36: Impacts of early goals can be pretty impactful for want of a better word, but you know, if there's an early goal in the game, it can kind of change the game. 
 15:45: , You know, when you do your research on this, you might find that your selections do better with nil nils than they do with one ones, or vice versa. 
 15:56: You know, you might find that matches with no goals at halftime have a different draw probability than those with one or more goals. 
 16:04: And that's something that's kind of important to look at. 
 16:08: And here's something, right? 
 16:10: And again, this is the advantage of doing something halftime in play. 
 16:14: You have the in-play data to back you up. 
 16:18: Teams might score early and shift their strategies in the game. 
 16:23: They might shift in the second half, influencing the draw probability. 
 16:28: You know, you might watch a match and think, wow, this team's well on top, they go one nil up. 
 16:32: And you think, nice one, my lay the draw's gonna be fine here. 
 16:36: And then they start defending and it starts getting a bit, you know, tetchy, a bit worrisome. 
 16:42: And you're thinking how the hell is this team not miles ahead and then suddenly the other team equalizes. 
 16:47: And you're up SH Creek without a paddle. 
 16:51: This is the situation you want to avoid, and again some deeper statistical analysis can help you do this. 
 16:58: Now luckily you can put all these filters, all the parameters that I've explained here, you can put those in on the Betfair trading Community.com software. 
 17:07: That's why it's such a powerful piece of kit and so many successful football traders use it. 
 17:13: But again, think about the match situation that you're in, and then couple those Betfair trading Community.com pre-match stats with the free in-play stats at Bet365 and you've got something potentially really powerful on your hands. 
 17:29: Now, I'm gonna talk a little bit about executing the strategy specifically. 
 17:37: Once you've got, so let's say you've used the Betfair trading Community.com software to create a strategy and it's given you your selections for the day. 
 17:46: You might want to then do a little bit of further research. 
 17:48: Have a look at the teams, have a look at the team news. 
 17:51: Are there some key injuries? 
 17:53: What do the head to head stats look like? 
 17:56: We've already identified matches where a draw is less likely based on trends. 
 18:02: So let's make sure we kind of dot the I's and cross the T's. 
 18:07: And have a look and see that, well, the top scorers aren't out today. 
 18:11: 00, this team's. 
 18:14: Defense has been out for the past month, but two of their key defenders are back. 
 18:18: They're probably going to defend and not concede. 
 18:22: It's the kind of thing you wanna look at pre-match preparation, you know, because you've already created your strategy, so you've done a lot of the bulk of the work. 
 18:30: There's nothing wrong with spending a couple of minutes on each game, just having a quick research, quick Google, quick look on Twitter, what are the lineups? 
 18:37: And then during the match, obviously monitor the first half performance. 
 18:42: You know, does this match look like there's gonna be goals? 
 18:46: Are there, like I say, shots on target, shots off target. 
 18:49: , is the XG rate high, you know, on the, on the bigger games on bet 365, you'll even see the XG rate. 
 18:55: Well, you know, are the team's XG rates above 1 in the first half. 
 18:59: If it's 0-0 and both teams have 1 XG each, there should have been two goals. 
 19:05: That suggests that there could be goals coming in the second half. 
 19:09: And then, of course, when you do decide that you've got a situation you like, you've done all these things and it's 0-0 or maybe 11 at half time. 
 19:18: Maybe 2-2, but that's like I say, very unlikely it's gonna be 4 goals. 
 19:23: Now's the time to place the labor. 
 19:26: So, here's the thing. 
 19:28: You can do this at halftime. 
 19:30: What I like about training strategies that start at halftime, perhaps something else that people like about them that I didn't mention earlier. 
 19:37: Is that you are getting in at half time and it's gonna be easy to enter. 
 19:42: It's very easy to make a lay the draw at half time, because it's halftime. 
 19:46: Nothing's gonna happen in game. 
 19:49: And if you've ever tried trading in play, you'll know what I mean, that you could be about to place a bet and suddenly a goal goes in and it changes everything. 
 19:57: And there's nothing you could do. 
 19:58: Well, when you enter this trade, that's just not gonna happen because it's the halftime interval. 
 20:02: No goals are going in, right? 
 20:04: They're both in the dressing room having their oranges. 
 20:07: I mean, do footballers still have oranges? 
 20:09: I don't know. 
 20:10: That's what we used to always have back in the day in our school football matches. 
 20:15: Someone would come with a tray of oranges. 
 20:17: And you get one like, basically one little section each to like, you didn't eat it, you kind of just chewed the juice. 
 20:25: Did everyone do that? 
 20:26: I know that the orange thing's popular, but in that specific way it seemed a bit weird. 
 20:29: Anyway, that's just not something I've ever done since, I think that's why it kind of strikes a chord there. 
 20:35: But you want to get in at halftime and that's gonna be easy enough. 
 20:39: Choosing the right odds in the stake management. 
 20:42: Now here's where it gets more interesting. 
 20:45: You're gonna be given odds and you're not gonna have much choice, right? 
 20:50: The odds are gonna be what they are at half time and they're not gonna change much in that interval. 
 20:56: Maybe you could wait a bit longer if you went, I'm happy to take this to 60 minutes, I want to get evens on my lay. 
 21:02: But a lot of the time, you're probably just gonna take the halftime price or you're just gonna leave it and go, I don't like it, I'll leave it. 
 21:10: Again, that's a decision you have to make. 
 21:12: , but choosing the right odds is important. 
 21:16: Now one way to do this is to test. 
 21:19: When you get your selections, you make your trades record them, record your trades. 
 21:24: And see which odds work. 
 21:26: You know, when you've got a few 100 results, go and have a look back and go, well, this, these odds clearly don't work. 
 21:33: Yeah, I was looking at one the other day. 
 21:34: It was like a layaway team strategy that I do. 
 21:37: And I was looking at the odds and everything under 3.4 was showing a big loss and everything above 5.4 was showing a big loss. 
 21:46: And I was like, obviously this strategy works best between 3.4 and 5.4. 
 21:52: I'm gonna create a new strategy with those o parameters. 
 21:55: That's something you can do. 
 21:57: And you don't even have to get rid of your old strategy on Betfair tradingcommunity.com. 
 22:01: You can just edit your current strategy and then if you give it a new name and click save new rather than save, you'll have two strategies and you'll be able to split test and compare the two strategies. 
 22:12: Again, how powerful is that? 
 22:15: And then we're gonna talk about staking. 
 22:18: So most people tend to lay to stake, which is what we call, basically, if you want a better tenner and lay a tenner, you'll just lay a team for 10 pounds. 
 22:31: And then if the odds are 2.4, your liability is 14 pounds, your risk is 14 pounds. 
 22:37: If the odds are 3.0, your risk is 20 pounds. 
 22:40: Your risk basically goes up depending on odds,, you know, the higher the odds, the more your risk in that scenario. 
 22:47: But some people like to lay so that it's level each time, so maybe they lay, but there's only 10 pounds liability each time. 
 22:55: So if the odds are evens and you're doing that, you'd lay 10 pounds and your liability would be 10 pounds at 2.0, because that's a 50/50 shot. 
 23:04: OK? 
 23:05: But if the odds are 2.4, which I've mentioned and you only want to lay, you'd be laying around, I don't know the exact number, but around 7 pounds. 
 23:14: For that 10 pounds liability. 
 23:17: So it's kind of working all that stuff out. 
 23:21: So you would you rather later liability or later stakes? 
 23:24: , I think. 
 23:26: Because it's half time, you're not gonna have massive stake, massive odds, hopefully on your selections. 
 23:31: I lay to stake. 
 23:32: I just like laying to stake in general. 
 23:35: , but I do understand that laying liability can make a lot of sense and it does cut down on variances, you know, if you have a bad one, it's not quite as bad because you're not risking as much. 
 23:45: , but at the same time, obviously you won't win as much per trade. 
 23:49: So it's just one of those things, it's a yin and a yang, it's something you need to have a good think about. 
 23:54: , now. 
 23:57: When you manage the trade, once you're in the market, so now we're at the point where we've placed the trade, you need to start thinking about whether you set a stop loss or a point where you green up. 
 24:10: Now most people green up after a goal in these, they don't let them run. 
 24:14: Some people do. 
 24:17: It's hard when you have a selection that's 0-0 at halftime. 
 24:20: You lay the draw, one team goes 1-0 up and there's a green there, you don't take it and the match finishes 1-1. 
 24:27: And you lose your money I'd advise taking the profit, I, I think it's. 
 24:33: I think unless you really are just wanting a set and forget strategy, you're not gonna sit and watch it, you're just placing that lay at halftime and leaving it, not worrying about it. 
 24:45: But I really like taking profit. 
 24:46: When profit's there, taking it can be the big difference between a really good day and a really bad day. 
 24:53: And when you don't take it and you have those bad beats, you know, emotionally, how are you going to take that? 
 24:58: How are you going to accept that? 
 25:00: , and at the same time, looking at a stop loss now. 
 25:04: This is where it gets more dicey. 
 25:06: I know people that, you know, lay the draw at halftime and they take a loss at 70 minutes, so there's no goal. 
 25:12: 75, you know, there's different ways you can do it. 
 25:16: I have no issues with stop loss. 
 25:18: I just would struggle to have a stop loss because I know how many goals are scored late in football. 
 25:24: So for me personally, I wouldn't want to put a stop loss on this strategy. 
 25:28: And again, You would have the caveat of unless the match really looks dead and there looks like there's no chance there's gonna be a goal. 
 25:38: , in that scenario, I don't mind you, but, but you don't really need a stop loss in that scenario, I think you just need to get out of the market. 
 25:46: You know, if you see a market that's turned from how you're expecting it. 
 25:51: Get out of it before you get hit too hard, because ultimately, you don't want to lose your whole state when you're sitting there the whole time knowing, yeah, this has changed, this isn't what I was expecting. 
 26:02: There isn't going to be a goal. 
 26:04: Now, 11 kind of way of kind of getting around this could be that you do wait a little bit after halftime. 
 26:10: Maybe you wait till 50 minutes and you go, I just want to double check the teams come out and play with the same tempo. 
 26:16: Because you do get matches in football, and, and if you've watched a lot of football like me, you'll know this where you watch it. 
 26:25: Really lively first half, loads of chances. 
 26:28: And then the managers kind of make their tactical adjustments at halftime, and the match slows down. 
 26:34: The teams have punched themselves out, managers actually sorted the defenses out, and suddenly there's no chances and it looks really dead and turgid and in the end you lose your money. 
 26:45: Now in that scenario, you wanna be able to. 
 26:49: Get out of the market, and when you spot that happening, just get out. 
 26:54: Here's the reason. 
 26:56: There's no point setting a stop loss there. 
 26:58: If, if what you think's happening isn't happening, get out of the market. 
 27:03: Because you could always re-enter later on. 
 27:05: This is what people forget. 
 27:07: So let's say I lay the draw at halftime at 2.4, and I watched the first five minutes of the second half, the draw comes in, I don't know, 2.3, 2.2. 
 27:18: I'm looking at a small loss if I take a, if I cash out now. 
 27:23: OK, but the game looks turgid. 
 27:25: I'll cash out. 
 27:26: , maybe let's just say I've made a 1 pound loss in that scenario, right? 
 27:32: Match goes on Suddenly the match gets really entertaining, the teams start ramping up again. 
 27:39: It's 65, 70 minutes. 
 27:41: The drawer is now odds on. 
 27:43: OK. 
 27:45: I'm gonna lay the drawer now. 
 27:48: Because the odds will be much better than they were, and even taking into account that small loss I made, I will actually make more money now if there's a goal than I would have on my original trade, because the odds are so much better. 
 28:02: So again, don't be afraid of getting in and out of markets when the time is right. 
 28:08: You will be able to spot these things if you're watching a game or you're watching the stats. 
 28:13: , and if you can, like I say, it makes no sense to sit there and get stuck because you were proud and you didn't want to get out of your butt and you were too worried about getting back into it, even though the odds had improved and the match situation was going how you liked. 
 28:31: And again, this is just a case of adjusting your bets based on second half developments and it makes perfect common sense. 
 28:39: OK, let's talk a little bit about risk management. 
 28:42: Obviously, a strategy like this, we want to test it over a few matches before we start using real money, ideally. 
 28:50: Paper trade it, mark the odds down, mark your lay stake down, work out how your trade would have gone on, had you greened up when the goal went in, had you let it run. 
 29:00: Now if you want, you could use 1 pound stakes because, you know, 1 pound stakes, you're not gonna take massive losses, but, you know, just be aware that this is testing, anything could happen. 
 29:12: So you're kind of using 1 pound stakes to test, but you're not really doing it to make money, cos you're testing to see if it works first. 
 29:19: So I always say, you know, if you can do 1 pound steaks, it's not gonna be a big deal to you, great. 
 29:26: But if it is, you know, and there's people out there that if they lose a fiver, it's the end of the world. 
 29:31: Well, A, you probably shouldn't be gambling your money anyway, but B,, you don't have to do it. 
 29:38: You can do paper trading first and find out if it works for you. 
 29:42: Now, limit your stakes. 
 29:44: You know, if you are laying 10 pounds and the odds are 3.0, well you know that that's a 20 pounds risk each time. 
 29:54: Now how big of a bankroll do you have? 
 29:56: Because if you've got 100 pounds and you're risking 20 pounds each time. 
 30:00: You're gonna lose that bankroll as soon as you have a little bit of a bad run, not even that bad a run, a bit of a bad run and you're done. 
 30:08: So to use those kind of stakes, like, you know, 20 quid. 
 30:12: Yeah, I probably want a bank of 1000 at least 2000 ideally, maybe even more. 
 30:19: So again, that's the kind of thing you need to start thinking about because there's nothing wrong with starting sport, there's nothing wrong with starting 1 pound, 2 pound stakes, and learning the game properly. 
 30:30: Here's some common mistakes to avoid. 
 30:32: Don't over trade based on emotional decisions, you know, let's say you lay the draw. 
 30:39: And and now now. 
 30:42: frustrating, you've lost your money. 
 30:44: Now you're looking and you go, I've got no more selections today. 
 30:47: OK, there's this match about to kick off in the Colombian 2nd division. 
 30:51: I know nothing about the teams. 
 30:53: It's not come up on any of my strategies on Betfair Tradingcommunity.com. 
 30:57: This match is of no interest, but I wanna make my money back. 
 31:00: So I'm just gonna lay the draw. 
 31:02: And I'm gonna double it because I need to make my money back. 
 31:05: That kind of thing just leads to disaster, do not overstate based on emotional decisions and don't ignore key match indicators, you know, if the match is telling you something, if the match stats are telling you something, listen to them. 
 31:17: If there's a red card, you have to take that into account. 
 31:20: Will that hamper your bet? 
 31:22: Or support it. 
 31:24: Now, let's get on to tools and resources. 
 31:27: I've talked a little bit about this, but really the obvious tools here are Betfair trading community football software, you're gonna want to use that for the strategy creation, so you can create your halftime lay the draw strategy, get your selections each day from it,, get your shortlist instantly. 
 31:44: I mean, it's golden. 
 31:45: Now some people like to use tools like you know, API Betfair API tools, trading software like Betang or Geeks Toy. 
 31:54: This is good, these things are good,, Racing Trades is the one I've used a lot. 
 31:59: These things are very good,, that's for sure. 
 32:02: So if you wanted to use those. 
 32:04: They're not going to help you make your selections. 
 32:08: So you know, you do need Betfair trading community, but these are more a compliment to that where they will help you place your bet maybe a little bit quicker than you could on Betfair,, and they'll help you work out how to cash out easily. 
 32:23: Now I know a lot of people on football just like to use the cash out button and they don't want to pay for something like Betangel, and that's perfectly understandable and, you know, I don't have any issue of anyone who does that. 
 32:34: I'm just letting you know the possible tools, but yeah, I mean the free option these days is pretty good. 
 32:38: The cash out is pretty spot on. 
 32:40: , you know, and, and actually, if I'm watching a game, you know, if I'm trading and using my phone rather than my PC, I will actually more likely use cash out just because of ease of use and like I say, it is pretty much bang on nowadays. 
 32:55: Now, bet 365 is great for live stats, it's free. 
 32:59: , so again and again. 
 33:02: All you're doing here, you're getting all this power. 
 33:04: The only thing you really have to buy is the Betfair trading Community.com football membership, which, you know, doesn't cost much money. 
 33:11: I mean at the moment, obviously it could change in the future, but at the moment, and we never change it once you're a member, by the way, so all the members are locked in on a price. 
 33:20: I think it's about just over a quid a day if you include VAT, and if you don't, it is a quid a day. 
 33:25: I mean it's nothing, is it? 
 33:27: So, the reality is, and I and I said to someone the other day, if you can't afford that, then I'm not sure again, you should be trading or gambling because if you can't afford to invest a quid a day in yourself as a trader in something you want to get good at, then. 
 33:41: And the thing is, in this industry, you've got to be trying to get the edge, you've got to be trying to get the advantage. 
 33:47: We're using software like this will give you an advantage because most traders are gonna go, I don't want to spend any money. 
 33:53: I'm tight as a duck's backside, right? 
 33:56: Well, OK, that's cool, but you get what you pay for them and we see that time and time again with people who really struggle because they don't get any help, they don't get the software, they don't get the support of the community, like with Betfair trading community. 
 34:09: And they really struggle in their trading, and a lot of the time they eventually come to me and say, please, you know, let me inspect fair trading community. 
 34:17: , you know, we'll take you with open arms. 
 34:20: Welcome to the family, welcome home. 
 34:22: You know, we're all part of something here. 
 34:23: And it's been so exciting to help people make money over the years, because people often ask me, well, you know, Martin, you put so much work and effort into this,, you don't get a lot back from it. 
 34:35: Why do you do it? 
 34:36: And that's the reason that there's something. 
 34:38: You know, trading is a very lonely profession, and there's something so special about being part of a group like Betfair trading Community, being able to use software like this to give us a leg up on the market, and in fact I know that most traders aren't going to pay for it. 
 34:54: So the brilliance is that we get the serious traders who really actually want to make this work, really want to make money out of Betfair trading. 
 35:03: We can all talk, share our ideas and work together to become better traders. 
 35:07: , it's helped me, you know, people who come, they help me. 
 35:11: Everyone has their own experiences and everyone has their own great things to bring to the table. 
 35:17: , but yeah, they're the tools that I'd recommend for this,, strongly. 
 35:23: So I'm trying to think of some downsides now about laying a drawer at halftime because so far it's kind of been painted as the perfect strategy, and it is a good strategy if you're making the right selections. 
 35:36: There is one situation that is infuriating when you lay the draw. 
 35:41: So let's say you lay the drawer at halftime, bang, goal in the 50th minute, perfect. 
 35:46: You go to green up and there's an equalizer before the market opens or you could green up. 
 35:53: This is gonna happen occasionally. 
 35:55: It doesn't happen too often. 
 35:58: Luckily, But when it does, it's infuriating. 
 36:01: So one thing that's key is to get your money out as quickly as you can. 
 36:04: You don't want to be mucking around, a lot of people kind of muck around and they go, I wanted a slightly better draw or lay price. 
 36:10: OK, but you've just lost money because of that, and was it worth it for a couple of extra ticks? 
 36:16: Because in the long term, what you really need to do is protect your investment. 
 36:20: That's the number one thing as a Betfair trader, protect your investment, and if you're protecting your investment, you'll be in a good position to do that. 
 36:30: But this is where the stra situation where the strategy doesn't work as expected. 
 36:35: And you've got to be aware that that can happen and you know, what, what goes wrong, well, you lose your trade. 
 36:41: What's the lesson learned, you get out of the market as quick as you can. 
 36:44: Now, occasionally you won't be able to, if the market doesn't reopen at all, there's nothing you can do. 
 36:50: And it's brutal. 
 36:51: And at that stage you have to decide, do you stay in or take a loss. 
 36:56: Now, if you're just looking for second half goals, and there's been two second half goals. 
 37:03: You probably should just take the loss, because your, all your stats have told you that this is what's gonna happen and it's happened. 
 37:10: Your stats aren't telling you it's gonna keep happening over and over. 
 37:14: You know, you could give it 5 minutes, see how the match goes, because remember, good thing, especially if it happens early in the half, there's still a lot of time for a goal to be scored, then the draw odds aren't gonna go down to 1.01 very quickly. 
 37:29: It's gonna take ages. 
 37:31: They'll still probably be above evens if it's 1-1 at 50 minutes. 
 37:35: So, you're always gonna be in a spot where you can get out for a small loss or, You just go, I'm gonna give it 5 minutes, and if the match keeps playing with the same intensity, you go, OK, I'm staying in, I think it's gonna be another goal. 
 37:51: Now the sicker is that you would have already made a green if you'd been able to green up and that is something, it's, and again, it's, it's one thing we come back to quite a lot, it's that emotional thing of. 
 38:00: The way I've just talked about it, I've taken the emotion out of it, haven't I? 
 38:04: I've said, actually, you know, the argument is you should take a loss in that situation because statistically, what you thought would happen has happened, and your research led you to this place, but it's not told you what's going to happen if there's already 2 goals in the second half. 
 38:19: And therefore, that's not a situation I want to be in unless the momentum and I can see that there is going to be another goal. 
 38:27: So the two, I think your two options are take the loss there and then or wait 5 minutes. 
 38:32: But I don't think you want to be hanging on this too long because you need to make a decision. 
 38:36: And again, plan this before the match, plan for this eventuality. 
 38:41: Well, what happens if it's 0-0 at halftime and I enter a trade, and then it quickly goes 1-1, am I gonna stay in that trade or not? 
 38:47: If you know your plan before the match, that can help you utilize it properly. 
 38:54: And do it properly within the match. 
 38:56: And again, that's what's going to help you out as a Betfair trader. 
 39:01: Now, have you laid the draw at halftime? 
 39:04: I'd be really interested to hear from you, you know, get in touch with us, there's many ways you can do that, but if you're not a member, just email info@ Betfairtradingcommunity.com. 
 39:13: I'd love to hear your own experiences of laying the drawer at halftime,, because, you know, it is a good strategy ultimately, and I bet a lot of you have tried it. 
 39:23: , so we've kind of gone over all the main points of laying the draw at halftime there, why it's a popular strategy to use, what stats to use for it,, and how to execute the trade. 
 39:37: Practice this strategy responsibly. 
 39:39: Don't just jump in with high stakes and then wonder why it doesn't work straight away. 
 39:44: , continuous learning and adaptation to the Betfair trading markets are always going to be important. 
 39:51: You can do a lot of learning on Betfair Tradingcommunity.com, so come talk to us if you ever need help, like I say, just email me,, info at Betfairtradingcommunity.com. 
 40:01: . 
 40:02: And yeah, I mean, thanks for listening. 
 40:04: , guys, if you could subscribe to the podcast so you get it downloaded every time there's a new episode, that'll help us and that will help you because you don't miss it. 
 40:12: Remember to rate the podcast for us as well, review us. 
 40:15: , that really helps, also helps,, you know, visibility for others, help other people who get this good information as well. 
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 40:33: OK, so thanks so much for listening guys. 
 40:36: Hope you've enjoyed this primer and tutorial on halftime lay the Draw strategies. 
 40:41: I'll be back with another podcast very soon.