Episode 361: How World Wars Begin: Great Power Competition and the Global Order with Jake Clapham

This episode with Jake Clapham explores the growing fragility of the international order, examining how institutional collapse, strategic miscalculation, and great power rivalry can transform regional crises into global conflicts. Drawing on the history of Imperial Japan, the Second World War, and contemporary flashpoints including Ukraine, Taiwan, and the Strait of Hormuz, the conversation considers whether the world is entering a new era of prolonged geopolitical instability.

We discuss how Japan’s expansion into China and the attack on Pearl Harbor reflected not strategic confidence but strategic desperation, and why understanding the internal logic, culture, and decision-making structures of rival powers remains essential to avoiding catastrophic miscalculation today. The episode traces the historical links between conflicts in Europe and Asia during the 1930s, exploring how aggression in Manchuria weakened international norms and helped create the conditions for wider global war.

The conversation also examines the contemporary erosion of trust in democratic and international institutions, the rise of political polarisation within liberal societies, and the growing risks posed by declining confidence in alliances such as NATO. We consider how domestic politics increasingly shape foreign policy, why economic interdependence does not necessarily prevent conflict, and how instability in regions such as the Middle East could accelerate wider confrontation in East Asia.

Jake is a History Youtuber who focuses on the intersection between the past and present - most recently shooting a documentary in Japan about the causes and consequences of ww2.

The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical instability and organised crime to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you’re a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter.

Dominic Bowen is the host of The International Risk Podcast and Europe’s leading expert on international risk and crisis management. As Head of Strategic Advisory and Partner at one of Europe’s leading risk management consulting firms, Dominic advises CEOs, boards, and senior executives across the continent on how to prepare for uncertainty and act with intent. He has spent decades working in war zones, advising multinational companies, and supporting Europe’s business leaders. Dominic is the go-to business advisor for leaders navigating risk, crisis, and strategy; trusted for his clarity, calmness under pressure, and ability to turn volatility into competitive advantage. Dominic equips today’s business leaders with the insight and confidence to lead through disruption and deliver sustained strategic advantage.