What Impact does the Consumer Have on Ag Markets?

Season 5: Episode 215

In this episode of North American Ag Spotlight, Chrissy Wozniak sits down with Xinnan Li, VP and Senior Packaging Analyst at Rabobank, to discuss how customer trends and evolving food preferences are reshaping agricultural markets. Xinnan shares her journey from studying biology and food science to analyzing packaging, logistics, and consumer-driven change for one of the world’s largest agri-focused banks.

The conversation explores how shifting demographics, particularly the influence of Gen Z and millennials, are driving demand for local and organic foods—yet also how tightened disposable income is limiting higher-priced categories. Xinnan highlights the long-term rise of convenience, the impact of weight loss medications on portion sizes, and how packaging has become a powerful tool for both branding and efficiency.

They also dive into the rise of the MAHA movement and what it signals for future consumer behavior, the risks producers face when markets overcorrect, and the ways demographic changes and global diversity will continue to shape food demand. Xinnan emphasizes the importance of transparency, storytelling, and aligning operations with consumer expectations.

Looking ahead, she previews her upcoming presentation at the Women in Agribusiness Summit in Orlando this September, where she’ll provide a data-driven look at these same themes—demographics, disposable income, trade, and consumer bifurcation—and what they mean for the future of agriculture.

Learn more about Rabobank at https://rabobank.com
Learn more about Women in Agribusiness at https://www.womeninag.com/

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Transcript

00:00:08:10 - 00:00:43:04
Chrissy Wozniak
Hi, and welcome to North American Ag Spotlight. I'm Chrissy Wozniak. Today we're diving into the impact of customer trends and evolving food preferences on AG markets. From shifting demographics to packaging innovation, they're all shaping consumer decisions. And these changes are creating a ripple effect across the supply chain. My guest today is a leading voice in these trends. She's VP and senior packaging analyst at Rabobank, where she provides deep insights into packaging, logistics, cold storage and consumer driven change across North America.

00:00:43:06 - 00:01:07:09
Chrissy Wozniak
With over a decade of experience and a master's degree from Cornell, she's also a frequent speaker at major conferences around the world. In fact, this September, she, she'll be presenting on this very topic impact of consumer trends and food preference, and the evolution on black markets in the women and Agribusiness Summit. And that'll be held in Orlando, Florida.

00:01:07:11 - 00:01:17:08
Chrissy Wozniak
Coming up soon. From Toronto, Ontario, Canada. My homeland. I would like to welcome Shannon Lee. So great to have you here today. Welcome.

00:01:17:10 - 00:01:23:00
Xinnan Li
Thank you. Christy is such a great, honor to join you on this podcast.

00:01:23:02 - 00:01:33:01
Chrissy Wozniak
Awesome. So can you start by telling us about your your background, your role at Rabobank, and, and what you focus on as the senior packaging analyst?

00:01:33:03 - 00:01:59:22
Xinnan Li
Sure. So, you know, the food and egg, sector is what Rabobank does. This is completely what we focus on outside of the Netherlands. But it's not actually my training. I started, majoring in biology. You know, I'm super excited about science, but afterwards, I thought, I want to do something more applied, and then moved on to, you know, food science.

00:01:59:24 - 00:02:29:02
Xinnan Li
And that's how I really got connected to the food industry. I'm a I'm a huge foodie. I love to eat. And, you know, looking at food or the ag markets on a day to day basis as your job is a isn't a bad idea either. So this is how I got into Rabobank started as a, you know, a consumer foods and beverage analyst looking at what's going on with, food industry, looking at, we have quite a lot of colleagues focused on what's going on with the AG market as well.

00:02:29:02 - 00:02:57:13
Xinnan Li
We have, analysts looking at dairy, animal protein, poultry, beef, fertilizer. And specifically I cover more downstream, more on the packaging side and as well as logistics. So really where the entire rubber research team would cover the entire food and ag supply chain and of course, consumer trends, food preferences really has a huge impact on our, our food.

00:02:57:13 - 00:03:01:06
Xinnan Li
And I think it's free as general.

00:03:01:08 - 00:03:10:13
Chrissy Wozniak
Yeah, exactly. And and from your perspective, what makes Rabobank uniquely positioned to track these shifts across global markets?

00:03:10:15 - 00:03:36:06
Xinnan Li
Well, I think, this really dates back to our, roots. So Rabobank was founded over 100 years ago by Dutch farmers. So Dutch, the Holland is a very agricultural focused country. So I think with that history, we're really well connected to the farmers, not only in interesting Netherlands, but also in, but also with farmers globally.

00:03:36:10 - 00:04:05:20
Xinnan Li
So, right now in North America, we have, financing specifically focused on, the farm's farm gate. But we also are very connected to the large corporate in the food and egg supply chain. So really, I think we are able to provide a end to end solution to our customers, whether they are farmers, whether they're distributors, wholesalers, or also CPG, Food and Edge, eg corporates.

00:04:05:22 - 00:04:15:16
Chrissy Wozniak
Yeah. Wow. That is a lot. So how are shifting demographics like Gen Zs buying power influencing today's food market really?

00:04:15:17 - 00:04:43:00
Xinnan Li
I guess there are a lot of, moving pieces here. If you're looking at Gen Z specifically, they are, buying local more and more. They like to buy organics. They like to buy local produce. So I think from that perspective, you know, that's shifting slowly where our food, food can be grown, or where they're able to make a higher margin for our food can be grown.

00:04:43:02 - 00:05:11:14
Xinnan Li
But at the same time, you know, in the last couple of, years, in the last six months, specifically, I think the erosion of buying power really has, on this, disproportionately affected, the, the younger consumers. So when that this, disposable income is kind of weakened, then we're seeing the organic berries or local produce.

00:05:11:14 - 00:05:38:08
Xinnan Li
Some of them come at a higher price. Usually they're, they're they're often cut first. So you know, definitely a lot of moving pieces. Some of those are longer trends, like looking for healthier, looking for organic, looking for local produce, but at a shorter term, I think, some of those higher price categories are going to be negatively impacted just because consumers wallet are tighter.

00:05:38:10 - 00:05:50:18
Chrissy Wozniak
Yeah for sure. And what are some of the biggest changes that you've seen in food preference like over the past five years? Is it mostly this buying power or are there other factors?

00:05:50:20 - 00:05:55:13
Xinnan Li
One major thing,

00:05:55:15 - 00:06:21:19
Xinnan Li
Okay. Let me sorry. Let me think about in the past five years. Now, I guess I do want to point out how important the changing buying power really, negatively affected consumers across all, all demographics, for looking at the wage, growth for the, for the past says 2022, which growth has averaged about, 12%.

00:06:21:24 - 00:06:49:15
Xinnan Li
But if we're looking at CPI for food, food at home, it's, it's also at about 12%. So so that's okay. But when we're looking at, CPI, which is the inflation index for food away from home, we're looking at 18%. And on top of that we have shelter. CPI of four, 18% as well. So that really is I think taking a big, heavy toll on, restaurants or food service.

00:06:49:17 - 00:07:09:02
Xinnan Li
We're seeing the higher end, the fine dining, dining restaurants being disproportionately impacted by this trend as well. And if we're looking at how that's going to impact the ag producers, just as an example, you know, when you're going out to eat a steak versus the the burgers you cook at home, those are at different cuts of meat, right?

00:07:09:02 - 00:07:21:06
Xinnan Li
So the higher and more premium piece of, cuts of meat, are disproportionately impacted by, by this trend in the past few years. Yeah.

00:07:21:06 - 00:07:37:21
Chrissy Wozniak
Great points. Yeah. And so how is convenience? I guess probably over the last 20 years, convenience has been driving food choices. And what has that meant for packaging and supply chain logistics?

00:07:37:23 - 00:08:08:05
Xinnan Li
Convenience has always been top five, for purchasing choices. It is a long term trend. It's going to it's it's going to be, here to stay in terms of, you know, convenience and how that plays into food choices. If we're looking at the packaged food. Yeah, there is going to be there has to, I guess, tremendous, tremendous growth, for a single serve, packaged food or the To-Go products.

00:08:08:07 - 00:08:31:20
Xinnan Li
If we're looking at breakfast bar, that's quite a few years ago, kind of the rise of breakfast, breakfast bar and nutrition bar. But now, if we're tying with another trend, the GLP one, the anti obesity medication, a lot of the consumers are on these medication now and they're looking for a quick bite. So they're looking for a smaller portion size.

00:08:31:23 - 00:08:56:23
Xinnan Li
So convenience and the smaller portion size all plays together in the sense that yes, there's likely less amount of food being packaged, but there is more packaging being used. There is more single serve, smaller or portion controlled, products on our shelves now. And they're they're definitely gaining more popularity among our consumers.

00:08:57:00 - 00:09:17:09
Chrissy Wozniak
That's something I had not thought of at all was. Yeah, that's right. With, the weight loss injections, that is a I guess if you're not feeling hunger, you're not going to go out and buy a whole bunch of groceries and spend a long time cooking it. Wow. I never thought of that. That is a really interesting point.

00:09:17:11 - 00:09:49:09
Xinnan Li
Yeah. And not not not just that, you know, they're consuming less, they're consuming, definitely. They're consuming, less well, portions, but it could be that they could be consuming more frequently because they're not as hungry. But at the same time, they do need the nutrition, the protein, the energy to power them throughout their day. So the food industry, really needs to respond to these kind of, consumer behavior changes.

00:09:49:11 - 00:10:20:14
Chrissy Wozniak
Yeah. For sure. And when you speak about the, the local movement, I know sometimes it's it's not as efficient to grow obviously, a tomato in Ontario as it is. And, you know, in January as it is in Florida. So as we become more local, is this a lasting trend? What will happen? You know, the the logistics and the cold storage is one thing I think about where you're bringing that tomato from Florida, or are you growing it in a greenhouse?

00:10:20:16 - 00:10:39:19
Chrissy Wozniak
It's likely the same, you know, climate footprint for both of those heating up a greenhouse in Toronto or moving it from Florida. So what kind of things are you seeing in that? Are people really digging into the impacts of local, or what are you seeing?

00:10:39:21 - 00:11:03:20
Xinnan Li
So from what we're seeing, the local is definitely, I think, gaining popularity with, among consumers. And back to what we talked about at the start of the podcast, it is disproportionately gaining, popularity among the younger, the Gen Z, the millennial consumers. And, you know, as our population ages, the millennials, the chances are becoming a bigger proportion of our population.

00:11:04:01 - 00:11:28:11
Xinnan Li
So, as, as as a population, for a population as a whole, I think the local, produce really is a, concept here to stay. But when we're looking at, you know, the, the, the carbon footprint, of, of growing products in climates where, where they're not native to, that's definitely something we need to think about.

00:11:28:11 - 00:11:51:06
Xinnan Li
And I, I'm not an expert on this subject. But definitely we have a lot of research analyst that looks into, you know, what's going on with greenhouses, what's going on with, food, or produce that's imported from Central and South America. And there's definitely a growing, trend, of, of imports as well.

00:11:51:08 - 00:12:13:02
Chrissy Wozniak
Yeah. Wow. Lots so many angles to think about. So one thing I'm really interested about your background is, is your, your experience in packaging. My, my background is marketing, so packaging is very important. So do you see packaging as a driver of consumer choice or is it a response to it?

00:12:13:04 - 00:12:56:09
Xinnan Li
Very interesting thinking. I think packaging really is a integrate integrated, piece of, of marketing and branding, before a consumer reach, you know, reach for the products on a shelf. They're not they're not really touching the products. They're, they're touching, the packaging of the product, with the exception of some produce, I guess. So I think packaging now, especially, with the population, growth being pretty, pretty stagnant in, in developing countries, I would say, with, you know, volume growth being really challenging.

00:12:56:11 - 00:13:22:10
Xinnan Li
Fruit and egg companies are really trying to shift their, their focus to value growth and packaging can play a role in the value growth, whether it's just pure marketing, which is completely fine. It's, it's, it's a method to convey your brand, brand image and brand vision, but packaging could also be so many other things.

00:13:22:10 - 00:13:45:15
Xinnan Li
It could be the traditional plastic packaging. But it could also be, you know, used, it could also be made of biodegradable packaging or compostable packaging or recyclable packaging. All of this how you choose your packaging. And we're increasingly seeing that more in, startups. How you choose your packaging really conveys, your brand story.

00:13:45:17 - 00:13:47:18
Chrissy Wozniak
As well. And your values, I guess, too.

00:13:47:20 - 00:14:12:02
Xinnan Li
Absolutely, absolutely. And I think understanding who your audience is, or over your customers are, and what kind of packaging they would want to see, because in the end of the day, when they buy the product they, they want, they use the product, but then they are left with packaging, right? We all hate to deal with, over packaged things because we have to pay to get rid of them.

00:14:12:07 - 00:14:23:16
Xinnan Li
So you know what brands choose, to, to use as their packaging, what brands to choose to put on the graphics, to put on the packaging is extremely important.

00:14:23:18 - 00:14:47:19
Chrissy Wozniak
Yeah, yeah. Great points. And what about the technology of packaging? I know there's so many. You just seeing it at trade shows you can see that the technology of packaging produce especially is enhancing, freshness and flavor. Well, I would assume that can't. Is that consumer driven or is that the the company is like, oh, here's a good technology.

00:14:47:19 - 00:14:49:05
Chrissy Wozniak
Let's try it.

00:14:49:07 - 00:14:55:03
Xinnan Li
I think definitely consumer plays a role. The company plays a role. Sometimes the regulator plays a role.

00:14:55:05 - 00:14:55:10
Chrissy Wozniak
Yeah.

00:14:55:12 - 00:15:23:04
Xinnan Li
The regulator too for sure. So with the packaging, there is one. We can look at the packaging as a, as a cost. Right. Because it is sometimes, you know, besides you're a raw material product, cost packaging very often is one of your largest costs, whether it's, you know, plastic shrink wrap trays or corrugated boxes. So on one side, the packaging as part of a branding material, it could help drive your sales.

00:15:23:09 - 00:15:56:18
Xinnan Li
But on the other side, packaging could help protect your products. It could help reduce waste. It could help, you know, reduce your cost of goods sold by keeping your produce, fresh longer with, modified atmosphere, methods. And, you know, a lot of times packaging is a cost itself. And so we're trying to kind of a lot of the companies are, are really motivated by minimizing, their packaging costs and just making their operation as efficient as possible.

00:15:56:22 - 00:16:19:19
Xinnan Li
So in terms of a technology perspective, there are definitely a lot of packaging technologies out there. But back to the cost issue. Not every now not all of the packaging technology out there are being commercial commercialized right now because of the higher costs it would add onto our product.

00:16:19:21 - 00:16:51:16
Chrissy Wozniak
Yeah, yeah, that's a great point too. I know this is more an American issue, I think. But with and not to get political, but when, we are seeing this Maha movement kind of move across North America and I can I haven't seen it yet, but are you seeing some evolution towards supporting that movement? I would assume that consumers are starting to think along those lines and think, you know, for example, the seed oil debate.

00:16:51:18 - 00:17:02:10
Chrissy Wozniak
Right. Are people looking now at these? I don't know if they're political words or trigger words or whatever. And is that is that are you seeing some of that action yet?

00:17:02:12 - 00:17:39:06
Xinnan Li
I think we're seeing things to slowly change, but definitely, definitely not at, big scale yet. My colleague was at the, Expo West to the Natural Expo West, earlier this year. And from what he said, his observation was that the the mention of the Maha movement was, largely absent. So, okay, at a, at a, I think, industry level, so, but but, you know, a lot of the changes really happens from a regulator perspective.

00:17:39:12 - 00:18:16:13
Xinnan Li
This is, you know, adding sugar has been had bad raps for a very long time. But this is, the first time where, you know, we're hearing from a health secretary, that sugar is poison and there really is, you know, a push towards more natural dyes, the, the concept of real food. So we actually do identify a pretty large opportunity, for this industry changing from whether it's for, for, you know, processors or growers of, of, let's say, natural diet products.

00:18:16:15 - 00:18:36:08
Xinnan Li
So we're identifying about a 2 billion, opportunity for this industry. And we do think that, you know, there's going to be a slow change. Maybe it we'll take a, take some time for the industry to catch on. And but the opportunity is, is huge.

00:18:36:10 - 00:18:55:18
Chrissy Wozniak
Right. And thinking of of producers as they're planning, you know, making their 510 year plan and you take those two things, you know, healthier food and then also lower budgets. You know, I wonder where where the can they fit in into those, those two opportunities that will become opportunities. Right.

00:18:55:20 - 00:19:40:20
Xinnan Li
Yeah. Yeah for sure. I mean, I think for whether it's producers or processors, when still in the next couple of years, when, when, when they, you know, the budget's a little tighter. Definitely focus on, you know, looking at your own operational efficiency. Efficiency. Right. Trying to stay afloat, trying to minimize your own cost. But definitely looking beyond those two years into the next 5 to 10 years, looking at, you know, you know, products that fit in with this, let's say the natural diet movement, you know, consumers that are on GLP one and, are looking to eat more protein, and produce.

00:19:40:23 - 00:19:46:16
Xinnan Li
So position, your investments in, in those areas.

00:19:46:18 - 00:19:56:11
Chrissy Wozniak
Yeah. Very interesting. And so what would be some of the risks that producers should watch out for right now in this kind of changing time?

00:19:56:13 - 00:20:29:16
Xinnan Li
I think one risk is always, you know, the the egg market has cycles. Doesn't matter if you're looking into the protein space, nut space or, or, produce space maybe, maybe a little bit less. So, but, you know, whenever there's a big opportunity, there tends to be a lot of, investors coming to this place or growers rushing to this space, and it takes a couple of years for, for the, the, the crop to grow or the, you know, products to, to actually become viable.

00:20:29:18 - 00:21:04:14
Xinnan Li
And then but in a couple of years time, the market would have already turned. So I mean, it is that that's how our, our history's been and the history tends to repeat itself. But definitely just to be aware that, you know, maybe, take that, you know, planting time those all of those into account, and have a more realistic, I guess, understanding of the market, right, that the nuts prices are high today.

00:21:04:14 - 00:21:13:21
Xinnan Li
But, you know, in two years time, they might be completely different. So definitely, you know, understanding the market really well is important.

00:21:13:23 - 00:21:21:20
Chrissy Wozniak
Yeah for sure. And do you see any of these trends affecting, you know, trade and international demand.

00:21:21:22 - 00:21:49:11
Xinnan Li
We do see, you know, as a from a producer perspective, there are we're we're importing basically domestic production of, of of produce, is pretty flat. And a lot of the are coming from imports. So, you know, if we're depending more and more on foreign imports, then trade is definitely, going to have a impact.

00:21:49:13 - 00:22:19:18
Xinnan Li
And in terms of exports, yeah, we do export a lot of animal protein to different countries. And the trade relations, relations with other countries definitely would have an impact over there as well. So I think those are the policy risks. Geopolitical risk is here to stay regardless of who is in office right now. So, we do think that we're we're entering a period of heightened, geopolitical volatility.

00:22:19:20 - 00:22:33:22
Xinnan Li
And from that perspective, trade is going to, a lot be a lot more volatile for those that are, you know, solely, supported by the export or import market.

00:22:33:24 - 00:22:48:22
Chrissy Wozniak
Right? I totally makes sense. And then looking ahead, what do you think will be the most defining, consumer driven change over the next five, ten years? Who look into your crystal ball?

00:22:48:24 - 00:23:16:08
Xinnan Li
Well, if we're looking at the next 5 to 10 years, I want to say demographic changes, right. Those are long term change. That's here to say our population is aging. And it's it's not just for the US, not just for Canada. We're seeing that in developing countries, China as well, but we're, we're even seeing, you know, birth rate decline in India and, Africa as well.

00:23:16:08 - 00:23:42:03
Xinnan Li
So it is a global issue. There are populations aging. And as people, age, they have different food requirements. They, they may eat at different times, they eat at different frequency, they eat in different outlets, or maybe they shop at different, supermarkets or grocery stores. So that's, that's one thing. And at the same time, our population is getting more diverse.

00:23:42:03 - 00:24:09:12
Xinnan Li
Specifically, we're just looking at, you know, us, Canada, the North America region, our population, what would our population looks like today is going to be very different from what our population looks like, in the next 5 to 10 years. So there is more, demand for global flavors. Whether it's from central, South America or Asian countries.

00:24:09:16 - 00:24:34:22
Xinnan Li
So the flavor profile, the, the specific products or produce, meats, cuts of meat being being consumed, may change as well. So this is a long term trend that's here to stay. And I think definitely producers, growers, processors should take that into account. In planning, you know, where your next 5 to 10 years is going to be.

00:24:34:24 - 00:24:45:21
Chrissy Wozniak
Yeah. Yeah, totally makes sense. And if you had one piece of advice for producers and, even an agribusiness watching consumer behavior, what would it be?

00:24:45:23 - 00:25:26:17
Xinnan Li
It's a great question. One piece of advice. I would say, to to stay true to your operations, to your products, and to your consumers. I think in this day and age, being being being transparent about your operations, tell the consumer your stories. Consumers. I mean, yeah, consumers love local products, but they are also okay if they know, let's say, in, in states thousands of miles away.

00:25:26:17 - 00:25:36:01
Xinnan Li
This is how your products are grown. Tell consumers your story. And I can I think consumers are willing to buy into that.

00:25:36:03 - 00:25:46:21
Chrissy Wozniak
Yeah, I love that a lot. And, you know, in marketing, that's the whole thing is, is to tell that story and bring it, to a place of relevancy with the consumer. Right. So, yeah, I think.

00:25:46:23 - 00:25:47:08
Xinnan Li
That's great.

00:25:47:08 - 00:26:12:08
Chrissy Wozniak
And big challenge in agriculture because there's always a processor in between it. Generally there's a processor in between. So it is tough to get that story from farm to table for that. Yeah I totally agree with you. There. So as I mentioned before, you're going to be at the Women and Agribusiness Summit, in Orlando. And, can you give us a little sneak peek of what you'll be covering in your presentation?

00:26:12:08 - 00:26:17:04
Chrissy Wozniak
We probably covered some of it, some of it today. But yeah, give us a little sneak peek of that.

00:26:17:06 - 00:26:41:23
Xinnan Li
Yeah. For sure. I think we covered a lot of, what's going to be my presentation today or to my presentation? I think you're going to be seeing more data. We talked a lot about, you know, stories, anecdotes today, but it's definitely going to be, more data driven. So we're going to be looking at, you know, the demographic changes, the Maha movement, GLP one, how that's impacting people, people's diets.

00:26:42:04 - 00:27:07:01
Xinnan Li
And we're going to be looking at, you know, the, the disposable income change and we're going to be looking at how trade tariffs is disproportionately, disproportionately impacting, our lower, to middle income consumers compared to the, compared to the higher income groups. So there's going to be a more, more severe bifurcation of consumers that we're seeing.

00:27:07:03 - 00:27:18:16
Chrissy Wozniak
You know, yes, I see, and then my final question for you, why do you personally do what you do, what wakes you up in the morning and excites you? And what did God put you on this earth to accomplish?

00:27:18:18 - 00:27:43:17
Xinnan Li
Wow. This is it's it's I mean, it's hard. I still I love the food industry sometimes. I mean, I'm an analyst, so I make a lot of slides. And why on the slide, you know, a burger, sometimes it's the packaging for chips. Sometimes is packaging for a coffee. You know, that's really fun. The data, you know, can get repetitive.

00:27:43:17 - 00:27:58:04
Xinnan Li
And I think the day to day work can get a little boring. But whenever I actually connect what I do back to the food itself. Yeah. As a foodie, I think you just can't complain.

00:27:58:06 - 00:28:05:02
Chrissy Wozniak
I love that. Very good. Well, thank you so much for joining me today. Such great information.

00:28:05:04 - 00:28:09:24
Xinnan Li
Thank you Christy, it was a great, time chatting with you.

00:28:10:01 - 00:28:28:16
Chrissy Wozniak
And thanks to all who are watching or listening. If you want to learn more, the links are provided in the show notes. If you'd like to hear more, don't miss, June's presentation at the Women and Agribusiness Summit in Orlando, Florida. And don't forget to subscribe to North American Spotlight on Spotify, Apple, Amazon. Those are notes, if you prefer.

00:28:28:16 - 00:28:37:12
Chrissy Wozniak
Video we're also on Rumble, or really wherever you listen to podcasts. And if you like this episode, I would love it if you shared it and have a great day.

00:28:37:14 - 00:28:38:06
Xinnan Li
All right. Bye.