The One Stat That Decides NC State's Entire 2026 Season | Tuffy Talk

There's a number that explains almost every NC State football loss over the past two years, and it has nothing to do with talent, scheme, or who's lining up around him. Ethan Barry pulled it straight from his own Patreon breakdown: CJ Bailey is 10-1 in his career when he throws one interception or fewer. He's 3-10 when he throws multiple. Same quarterback. Same coaching staff. Completely different team.

Layton and Ethan dig into exactly which losses that gap accounts for, the three-interception Duke game, the uncompetitive Notre Dame and Miami showings, the 2024 Georgia Tech heartbreaker decided by a single point. They also revisit the seasons before Bailey, back to Devin Leary and the quarterback carousel years, and the pattern holds up every time: when NC State protects the football, it doesn't matter who's behind center. When it doesn't, nothing else matters either.

But this isn't just a look backward. Bailey is heading into a contract-year-sized spotlight in 2026 — bigger money, bigger expectations, and a receiving corps that lost Noah Rogers, Hollywood Smothers, and Justin Joly. Ethan makes the case for why the schedule actually sets Bailey up to succeed this time (no Clemson, no Miami, no Notre Dame on the slate), points to the Virginia Tech home loss as the one game last year he should have stolen and didn't, and closes by breaking down where he'd actually place a bet on Bailey's 2026 prop numbers — and it's not where you'd think.

Tuffy Talk is NC State's home for sports talk, hot takes, and everything Wolfpack. New episodes every Monday at 8:30 PM ET on YouTube. Join the Patreon at patreon.com/c/tuffytalk for exclusive weekly NC State breakdowns from Ethan — $5/month.

Transcript

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All fired up and live the Wolf Pack Nation, where a hell of a crowd from the first pitch to the final play. Tough talk. Let's roll. Today. We've got a hot take alert, Wolf pack nation. We got my man Ethan Berry here, and we were just actually watching together his Patreon video that he just put out. Which, by the way, if you haven't joined our Patreon yet, you gotta do it. Three members only videos a week, plus our members only room or chat as well. Go down the link down description below. Only $5 a month here to see the video that I'm talking about here. But in that video, Ethan, there was a hot take, to say the least, here that, you know, I think you and I talked a little bit together. We were like, man, we definitely got to do a little bit of a of a of a deeper dive into this here, a little bit here. So what we're going to do with Fire Nation is we're going to give you a little bit of a taste of what our Monday, uh, TV talk live shows are all about here. And we're going to go to one of our segments that we always love calling. Going to call it our Athens stat pack. Y'all. So let's jump on over to it and let's see. Let's see what Ethan's got to say. All right Ethan, go for it. What you got for us, bud? I've got the most important stat in sports for you. Layton wins and losses. It's wins and losses, right? Can't. Can't get any simpler than that. Yep. CJ Bailey with one or more turnovers. Excuse me with, uh, multiple turnovers. Three and ten in his career. Okay, on the flip side, one turnover or less. Ten and one. Wow. Now talked about CJ Bailey as you mentioned on the Patreon. And the you know the turnovers have been in big games right. Last year he only threw. He only threw an interception in four games. Right? Problem was three of them against Duke, three of them against Notre Dame, two of them against Miami. You lose those three games. Right. And there was there was one against ECU as well. But that was that's, you know, eight games without an interception. Okay. That's great. But then you turn around and 234 turnovers. That's not including fumbles right. Okay. In those games states states unable to compete in those spots. They got blown out in all three of those games. 36 to 7, 41 to 7, uh, and 45 to 33 against Duke. Going back to his freshman year. Uh, state loses 30 to 29 to Georgia Tech. Three interceptions in that game. Just take one of those away. And NC state probably wins that game right. You look at the Syracuse game that was a multiple turnover game. Right. You end up losing that game 2417 tight games. You're going to like coming down to the last few minutes, coming down to who makes a mistake, who doesn't make a mistake and CJ Bailey like not to oversimplify it, but it's kind of like all of this stuff that he does and he does a lot of good things. And this is I mean, it's the case for a lot of quarterbacks, right? It's not just CJ Bailey, but if you do a lot of good things and then you make three crucial mistakes, state hasn't been able to overcome those. And most teams can't right. Like we know you know Dave Dorn football like it's not built to overcome 234 turnovers right. And with CJ Bailey they haven't. So it almost feels like to me it's like forget about the big plays. And which I to be honest like when I'm looking at it okay that's what you need. You want to be aggressive and sometimes that can result in interceptions. But again the wins and losses, losses data tells me when he's able to take care of the football state's able to win. And you know, again you go back to um, previous seasons for NC state when they've had a ton of quarterback turnover. Um, you know, you look at 2023 when you had you had Brendan Armstrong and M.J. Morris playing for you. When you don't turn the ball over, you find ways to win. Right. 2022 I think that's probably the best example. You don't turn the ball. When you don't turn the ball over. It doesn't matter who's at quarterback for you, it doesn't matter. Right. Right. Yeah. You turn the ball over. Uh, they turn the ball over twice against ECU. That was the game that EKU ended up missing that field goal. They turned the ball over four times against BC in a 2120 loss. Otherwise they go eight and four with MJ Morris with Devin Leary. With Jack chambers they won a game with Jack chambers. Uh, and Ben Finley that year as well. So I hate to oversimplify it, but again, like we've seen it in Bailey's career and it feels like it snowballs, right? It feels like, okay, you're coming in and it's a slow first quarter. Whether that's zero points, whether it's, you know, a punt and then it just kind of goes from there. Okay, we've got our first interception. Then you turn around another possession another interception. And it feels like it's just you're not able to stop the downhill trend. Snowball. Right? I think that's kind of the best way to describe it. But when you don't get in those ruts and you're able to take care of the ball, it's almost like the other numbers don't matter, right? And so it's like, okay, you're paying C.J. Bailey a lot of money to be your quarterback. You've gone all in on him this year when really, at the end of the day, all you really need is for him to take care of the ball. Mhm. Yep. Well I mean it's really just as simple as this year. You know I think this year is an interesting year. And the fact of since you are paying him this much money then you are basically saying like, like there should be at least a couple of games this year that we win because of you. You know that you are a big reason why we win that game, but also to like you said, we also hopefully don't have a single game this year where we lost the game because of you kind of deal. Now, I mean, obviously that's a harsh way to put it. But you know, like like like if you have a game where he turns the ball over 3 or 4 times, it's like, you know, okay, like, you know, it's a team game for sure. Like, I guarantee, you know, he's not going to be the only one in that game that also makes a mistake too as well. But just it's like all right come on CJ just like you said. Like you know just don't you know dawg you don't beat us. And and more likely we'll still be in a good shape. But if you're able to go and take over the game we're going to win this game. It doesn't matter who it is, you know. So that's really kind of, you know, the mindset at least for me, about CJ going into this year, on top of to the fact that this is his, you know, third quote unquote full year? Yes. You know, his first year he didn't play the full season, but he played a lot of it, for sure. And the majority of it. Yeah, played a majority of it. And especially two like against the I mean in the Memphis game he was he was great. Yeah. Like he just you could just get a sense of the confidence that he plays with now. I mean the Georgia Tech game like holy smokes I, I can watch those highlights over and over and over. And because that is a confident quarterback playing against a top five team in the country with ESPN glaring right at him. And so so you look at this year saying, hey listen CJ the the the good thing for you this year, whether we stay fans like it or not, is that in 2022, there was a lot of expectations put on Devin Leary shoulders. You know you're number 13 in the country. You're going against your rival week one. Like you know you should go in there and beat them by beat them by 25 and and walk out there and get and get ready for game two. Uh, but obviously it didn't go that smoothly. Well guess what KJ. Now this year you're going into the season I think the over under is six and a half I believe for for wins. Uh, seven and a half. Seven and a half. Okay I like that. So you know so still definitely a little bit higher expectations compared to I think, you know, probably what we would normally get with about six and a half. So expectations rise a little bit. But it's not you know there's there's not going to be a huge spotlight on you from the front you know so so go and and and play your game. You know play your game run the ball effectively. Don't put yourself into position. You know, where you can get hurt or turn the ball over fumbling it, whatever it may be. But at the end they also to just get rid of the football, you know, if nothing's there, throw it out of bounds. You know, don't don't, don't take the sack kind of deal. Don't take the hit. Yeah. That's my other big piece to as well. Yeah. Yeah. You bring up a good point about you know games. He's responsible for you winning which you need this year. Number one because of the of the, the the money you're paying him, but also because of who you lost. You lost Noah Rogers, you lost Terrelle Anderson, you lost Hollywood's mothers. You lost Justin Jolie. There's going to be a step down at those spots this year, and you need Bailey to be better to offset that. So he's played 25 games. I said he's 13 and 11. I didn't count the Tennessee game against him. He did technically play in that game, so I'm not going to hold that one against him because he didn't even attempt to pass. Um, so he's 13 and 11. The games that I look at to say, okay, N.C. state won that game because of you. I would look at the Cal game in 2024. He threw for 300 yards, two touchdowns, zero interceptions in a one point game. I believe state rallied. Uh, they definitely rallied in that game. I believe they rallied late as well. Um. That's really it. Out of year one. And then year two I have two games circled where I'm like, okay, I think you you know, state won this game because of you. Number one is uh, the Virginia game early on. State wins 35, 31, 16 to 23, 200 yards, one touchdown. He ran for, uh, for 44 yards and a couple of touchdowns. I know Hollywood Smothers was really good in that game. It was ridiculous. Um, but yeah, those numbers, like, I don't know, maybe, uh, but I gave it to him. And then the, the Georgia Tech game, you mentioned that. And obviously state had their way with Georgia Tech's defense with Duke Scott running for nearly 200 yards. That was just an easy day for for the offense. Um, but I mean, Bailey was excellent. 340 yards, two touchdowns, uh, over ten yards per attempt. That was probably his best game of the year. It was his best game of the year. No question. Um, ran five times for 34 yards. So there's a couple, right? Like there's 2 or 3 where you're like, hey, we won this game because of CJ Bailey. But then if you look at it where there's games where again, like you said, you don't want to necessarily say you lost this game because of him? No, but games where like he's got four games with with multiple interceptions again separate from the turnovers. Right. Um, because there have been some fumbling issues. But state was you know, again I brought up that Georgia Tech game in 2024 where it's three interceptions. You lose. You end up losing that game by one point. Um, you had the I you know, this one against this year against Duke. You know three interceptions and you lose 45 to 33. Again he was good in that game. His numbers were good. He did throw for two touchdowns. But I you know again if it's one touch one interception instead of three you know and and I believe one of those was a deflected pass again not to place all of the blame on him. But then you know Notre Dame and Miami you're completely uncompetitive. He wasn't good. And the other one that I would bring up again the numbers look okay. I would point to the Virginia Tech game. You lost 23 to 21 at home. There's a completely different feel in that game. You were coming off the Duke loss. You're three and one. There's a completely different feel to the season. I think if you win that Virginia Tech game. A team that was bad had fired their coach. Uh, and you have a chance to win late and you can't do it. Now, again, his numbers are good. You're not looking at this and saying, oh, his numbers were good, weren't good. That's why we lost. It was 26 to 30 for 240 yards two touchdowns zero interceptions. Yep. Uh, but he took a bunch of sacks in that game. And he only scored 21 points as an offense against a bad team. Fired. Their coach didn't make a bowl I that's a game at home. You've got to score more than 21 points. You've got an opportunity at the end to win it. And he couldn't do it. He couldn't do it. And so to me there's just more of those type of games where it's like, dude, we need, we need you. We need a little more from you here than there are games where it's like, okay, CJ Bailey just just carried us. And again, he's still young. These are the first two years. He's still young I get it. He had some help around him. He had some good offensive pieces. This year is different. This year is absolutely different. There's not as many pieces. He's getting paid more. There's more on his plate. You've got to get rid of those games. And I think the schedule helps with that. There isn't a Notre Dame, there isn't a Miami, there is not a Clemson on your schedule. So you you expect I think that okay, you're not going to face a top ten defense nationally. You're not going to face a team. Like again the struggles against Miami Notre Dame understandable, understandable. I don't see that game on the schedule this year. I don't see that game where it's like, hey, you put up a dud. We get it. That team is very, very good. You know, national championship, good defensively especially that that team is not on the schedule this year. And so I don't I don't think you can afford to have any duds this year. Yeah. Uh one of the things that you saw I think especially as the season went on here, one game other otherwise too, I would also give him props for for last season. I would say Lake Forest game was an impressive game for for him as well. Yeah. Yeah, he was good. Yeah. Yeah. 23 for 32, 201, three touchdowns. Um, yeah. And then Wake Forest ended up being a good team, too. Right. Yeah. It's. Yeah. No, the the like the why? It's always Wake Forest, man. What was it. Wake forest four years ago with Sam Hartman. That had the easiest ten win season in the history. Something like that. So it's always Wake Forest, man. Yeah. But, um, so I don't know if we have the the CJ Bailey player prop yet, but but do you feel like that you know, whatever they are, do you feel like that you'll you'll more than likely take a look at his rushing prop as an over. Or do you look at his passing prop isn't over like which area of his game do you feel like is going to be the bigger step forward this season? I don't have any props for Bailey, at least for the full season right now. Yeah. To me, no, I, I like you. Look at what they have on the running game with Will Wilson I, I know I would not be taking overs on the rushing. I would be taking unders, especially on running touchdowns. I'd be taking rushing touchdowns on unders on everybody. Duke Scott, I should say I shouldn't say everybody, really. Just Duke Scott and C.J. Bailey. Obviously Bailey's run. How many has he run for it in his career? One. Two. Five. Eight. He's run for 11, but they're not going to be short distance. Right. Like if it's you know if he's running it's five plus ten plus yards out. So I would be taking those unders. And in rushing yards is tough because sacks factor in right. Um so I, I don't really think you'd ever take the over on those in college football passing passing wise. Yeah. I mean I don't know how good state's going to be in the running game. I know everybody's pumped about Duke Scott, but I don't think he's it's going to be as easy as he made it look for a lot of last year. And so to me if you're if you're saying hey is CJ Bailey going to have a better year on the ground or in the air? No question, it's in the air. I don't think there's any doubt about that. Yeah. So there you have it. Wolfpack Nation. You got my man Ethan Berry there. Uh, you know, finally sharing, uh, a huge hot take here for sure around around KJ Bailey and talking all about that. So but if you want more of his content Michigan go check out a Patreon. Only $5 a month link down description below. Uh, and also to make sure if you haven't already subscribed to as well, it's free to do. It really helps support the channel a ton. And if you wouldn't mind, do us a big, big favor. Hit that like button to as well. If that, uh, button lit up for you, that means you need to smash it here right now. And also, you may as well make sure you give us a call. A tough talk now on Twitter or Instagram and TikTok and let us know down in the comments too, as well too, in terms of what are you most looking forward to around CJ's game? And, uh, we'd love to see your thoughts on down in the comment section below. But with that being said, y'all, as always, go pack y'all.