My predictions for the year and what are our biggest challenges
Today Mark the real first day I've opened for inspections across real estate in Australia and it's a day that I would call second year, still probably part time, because a lot of people end up waiting till Australia Day or just after Australia Day to run a campaign that will be uninterrupted. So I want to go three weeks and then the fourth week be the option. So a lot of people don't want to have Australia Day and taking the risk of marketing at home when people are still on vacation. So the numbers are going to be very low. But having said that, hello Berenet Bay. And sorry, having said that, I will say I will say that there is more properties going to auction this January than I've seen for a very long time. My diary on the 20th and the 27th it's pretty full. So the third it's very full, and it doesn't surprise me because, like last year, right up until Christmas Eve there were ox shells. This was all spurred on by one thing, and that is all of a sudden, that Melbourne Cup rate rise ended up driving a lot of sellers onto the market. By the way, I am in Biren Bay having a stone and wood good year. Beautiful Creval story about stone and wood. Local kids set up that bid a few years ago and they recently got bought out by Lion Nathan hundreds of millions of dollars. Think big, think big team.
Speaker 1:Now let's talk a little bit about the marketplace. What do I think is going to actually happen? And I want to let you know nobody, nobody, has been monopoly on the truth. Let's be very clear about that. But I think that we have a situational analysis marketplace and that is that, depending on various situations happening, they can impact the market. So I think there are a number of scenarios that are quite possible, and one of those scenarios and it's got a good scenario is that inflation numbers turn for the bad again and all of a sudden there's lots of talk about the rates, the rises and inflation and getting it under control and all of that. And if that were the case, I think that that would actually be very bad for the market. I know it's going to be very, very bad because it's bad at the moment. What the reality is November and December were probably the two worst months of real estate for the bendels out there in the market. The last two months were actually last seven weeks of entry after the November 8th rise. Alternatively, if we actually see rates on the whole all. Even better, they start talking about rate reductions and they do it on a consistent basis, not this one every three weeks. All rates are going unhoused. But it starts becoming the daily agenda that there is a light at the end of the tunnel called Norwich Holders. If that were to happen, I would suggest, man, it is off to the races. I really mean that it is over to the races.
Speaker 1:We have a fundamental issue at the moment, and that is a simple shortage of real estate for the amount of people that are looking right. Just simple as that. And that equation is not changing anytime soon. It's not changing anytime soon, and the reason I say it's not changing anytime soon is the speed of people coming to Australia is significantly faster than the speed of dwellings being built, and this is a problem I can tell you right here, right now. This commissioner, particularly in New South Wales, is that's where he's been appointed. He's been good, but he is probably because he's cleared up some of the bad building works that developers were doing. But he's also been bad because he has slowed things down even small changes by taking months and months to get through. That turns developers off from doing projects because time is money, they need to get in and get out and they're not building. And because they're not building, we don't have a supply.
Speaker 1:And then to hear today I'm very surprised hearing that New South Wales government were seriously considering bringing legislation for all animals which would impact them in victim tenants. And also, I think we always talk about rate rises. Think about this for a moment. And I think the real estate institute of New South Wales is arguing, saying that it's against the law to do that. You're telling people what they can do with their investments. Think about that for a moment. You're telling people that went out with their own money and most of it is not theirs. They borrowed it, they brished it, and then you've got a government that's going to say oh, by the way, we know you've spent a million dollars on that asset and here's how you're going to use that asset.
Speaker 1:Now that's unheard of, that's incredible. I can't believe it and I've got to tell you and it's the fastest way. It's the fastest way to actually not solve the housing problem but to actually explode it. Right, how? Because look at what's happened in other countries the minute you turn off investors and they start selling, there's less investment stock on the market. Less investment stock on the market, less tenants to live in. That's basic mathematics.
Speaker 1:Anyway, gene, you're supplying your man, richard. He's the only aspect. There are many other facets which go into this. Just watch what happens. Yes, for Rosario, that's what we are doing. We're all watching. Hey, damien, how you going? I'm reading. So, hey, tom, what do you think about property market at Western Sydney? Western Sydney's been very, very good last few years, but I've got to tell you that's where all the pain is at the moment. Right, hey, michael, good to see you, good to see you all. The rails doesn't look like it's changed in 20 years. Nuts, you're 100% right. Anyway, tom, let me just finish off on this point, because I'm having a lot of people say to me.
Speaker 1:I sat with Matt Steinway's group the other night and one guy said but Tom, fundamentally we have an issue, and the issue we need listings. I said stop there, you don't need listings, you need leads, because leads lead to conversations that lead to listings, that lead to sales, that lead to settlements. Let's link it back to the start. You need leads. And then he said how do you get leads? Well, let me go through how you get leads, it doesn't matter what business that you're in.
Speaker 1:You get leads by reaching out to people that you know. Number one you get leads by reaching out to people you don't know. Number two. Number three you get leads by advertising, and in real estate we've got two types of advertising. Then we'll pay advertising agent paid advertising. And number four you get leads by creating content, by, on an ongoing basis, you put out information that is useful to people and start being more a teacher than a persuader. When you look at people as students, you teach. When you look at people as prospects, you try and persuade to do you understand what I'm saying there? So, no matter what business, we can't get away from those four basic principles. They're super, super critical, right.
Speaker 1:And the last thing I want to say to everyone out here and I had one guy that ring up really upset his being, whether he's been bullied or treated negatively by the office is he's become the best agent in a matter of a year and a half in his office and people have turned by and he goes. I'm really surprised. I said don't be surprised. People will be rooting for you when you'll be loath them. Very few will be rooting for you when you're a buff, it's just life. You suck it up and you accept it. And if you're the sort of person that wants to get everyone's approval all the time, let me tell you you're taking out your power and you're outsourcing it to an external person. And the best way to get someone's approval is to actually not need it in the first place. And you need to know that team, because on your journey to success, you'll lose people along the way. See, I'm going to sign off here, and next week I'll be in my car.