Bonus: War With Iran: What Is the U.S.'s Endgame?

We are bringing you an emergency podcast on the war with Iran. 

It seems like only yesterday that we put out a bonus podcast on the strikes in Venezuela. That’s because it was just two months ago, and it may have encouraged a sense of military adventurism that has led to full-on war with Iran.

Today, we are talking about who is currently ruling Iran at present. What are the U.S. goals? And what is likely to happen in the future? Will the regime fall? And if it does, what kind of government would likely replace it?

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• US-Israel Strikes on February 28th
• The Death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and key national security leadership
• Iranian Succession Options and U.S. Endgame.

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

• America’s attack on Iran turns a taboo into a method (Steve Simon, The Economist)
• The Folly of Attacking Iran (Nick Kristoff; NY Times)
• John Bolton Sounds the Alarm on Trump’s Iran Gamble (Politico)

Follow Us

• Show Website: www.kelloggsglobalpolitics.com
• Show Twitter: @GlobalKellogg
• Anita’s Twitter: @arkellogg
• Show YouTube

Transcript

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Anita Kellogg: [00:00:00] Welcome to Kellogg's Global Politics. I'm Anita and I'm here with my co-host Ryan. 

Ryan Kellogg: Thanks and glad to be here. 

Anita Kellogg: We are bringing you an emergency podcast on the war with Iran. It seems like only yesterday that we put out a bonus podcast on the strikes in Venezuela. That's because it was just three months ago, and it may have encouraged a sense of military adventurism that has led to full on war with Iran.

Today we are talking about who is currently running Iran at present, what the US goals are and what is likely to happen in the future. Will the regime fall? And if it does, what kind of government would likely replace it? So I am a little surprised about just this full on war with Iran, uh, something that I didn't think Trump would want to do, uh, especially with his MAGA base, America first isolationism and the idea of getting into another war in the Middle East.

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, definitely. I mean, something at the you, [00:01:00] none of this would be expected at the beginning of the administration. Certainly not how he campaigned. Um, I think a lot of the posts I've been seeing on, um, social media are calling, you know, like his comments, uh, you know, even going back to the Obama administration, his criticisms around, you know, attack attacks on Syria or mm-hmm.

Uh, Libya. But even before that, um, yeah, all the accusations around Kamala mm-hmm. That essentially she would lead to World War II and endless wars and, and now we're in this situation, you know, barely a year into the, uh, to his second term. And, um, yeah, no, it's a, it's kind of a NeoCon dream. Every single Yeah.

Um, policy, the S one, 

Anita Kellogg: and who 

Ryan Kellogg: would've thought 

Anita Kellogg: that under a Trump administration? 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Yeah. You would never think that kind of Rubio and his, his small faction, um, which seemed very, I mean, he had to compromise on so much at the beginning, it seemed like the MAGA base, which is primarily isolation [00:02:00] list, um, was dominant mm-hmm.

Within the party. And that the era of military adventurism of the era of the, the George W. Bush kind of period was over. Um, but, uh, but yeah, no, I think he's, he's tasted the delights of military victory and quick military victory was zero cost in Venezuela. And I think that's, that's largely empowered him to, uh, to roll the dice on Iran.

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. Uh, really, really striking to, I mean, once hand, I did think that Venezuela might lead. To, uh, more military adventurism, but it was still hard for me to imagine a full out war. But we can see why Rubio compromised so much in the beginning of the administration because he's getting his goals now. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, for sure.

Now he's definitely one of the clear winners. I mean, I think it'll be very interesting how this shakes out kind of internally mm-hmm. Within the MAGA [00:03:00] movement. And then looking ahead to 2028. 

Anita Kellogg: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Kellogg: Because obviously the, um, the successor to Trump. The leading candidates, I mean, kind of obviously the leading one's, JD Vance, right.

Just very much aligned with the isolationists against Forever Wars, against any interventionism within the Middle East, um, versus Rubio. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. 

Ryan Kellogg: Who, if he can chalk up multiple victories and if Cuba ends up falling as well. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. 

Ryan Kellogg: Who's gonna be in a stronger position than in a, in a general campaign in 2028?

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. I think most people would've counted Rubio out. But if this is a success and the US is able to clearly define success in this case, and as you said, Cuba, then, then it does, it gives him a boost, his presidential campaign and uh, probably I'd say running second to JD Vance, who's really the only candidate anyone has talked about up till now.

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Yeah. I don't know how that [00:04:00] translates into Republican primaries though, but who knows? So I think yeah, we probably should get back to more the main, the main thrust of uh, do we wanna provide kind of an overview of where things stand. Everything's a very fluid situation. Obviously combat operations just began a little bit over 24 hours ago from when we're speaking.

Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: So why don't you provide an overview for us. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. So. Uh, I think around 2:00 AM Eastern time on, uh, Saturday, early Saturday morning, uh, Trump announced the beginning of combat operations, uh, joint combat operations between US and Israel, uh, against the Iranian regime. And essentially kind of what's unfolded has been a series of, uh, airstrikes that have decapitated a significant portion of the Iranian regime.

And most of these airstrikes to this point have been led by the Israelis. Um, so as of right now, it's been confirmed that the supreme leader of Iran, so Aya [00:05:00] Ali Kane, uh, is, is dead along with. A good number of the, um, defense officials within the Iranian regime. So that included their head of National Defense Council, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, the Defense Minister, and the Chief of staff of Iran's armed forces were all taken out.

And apparently this was coordinated strike that was timed, tipped off by the ccia A, um, which actually you just toured their, their building right? When these, uh, these things are going down. Um, but, uh, but yeah, so it was, it was a, a joint operation, but the strikes themselves are carried out by Israel. But the New York Times was reporting that the CIA was the one that kind of tipped them off that this meeting was being held, which seems like.

Again, we've talked about just the absolute shambolic of internal security within Iran. Mm-hmm. But this really takes the cake, particularly after all [00:06:00] the failures in June following the, during the 12 day war. Um, but to have like your entire defense leadership cast all in a single location, uh, yeah, that doesn't make sense.

To make it open for strike. Seems, I mean, a stunning failure. Uh, so the defense portion, including the head of state, has been decapitated. But that being said, there are still a significant, um, number of leaders, uh, within the regime left. And again, I think as we, we talked about before, this isn't some personal dictatorship.

The, this, right. Important? Yeah. I mean, this is, um, Iran, the current government was formed by the Iranian Revolution, so theocratic control, and it has a, it has a constitution with a clear line of succession. So I think what was announced this morning is essentially they formed a interim council of which, um, the current president who has survived, um, who, who is seen as not a moderate, but as more moderate than the theocratic regime, uh, [00:07:00] Mossad.

Uh, PE Korean. And then the other portion, uh, is more kind of on the, 'cause I think any form of succession requires that there's certain, um, uh, religious scholarly demands almost that the person's background, you know, has served as a time as a cleric within the Shia, uh, faction of Islam. And, um, so the, the other portions.

Kind of within this, this ruling council is the head of judiciary and then a member of Iran's assembly of Experts. And it's really this assembly of experts, which I think are primarily religious leaders. Uh, but it's a council of 88 and they ultimately kind of elect the, uh, the supreme leader. So there's clear lines of succession.

There's been a lot of talk before. 'cause I think Kaine knew that he was being targeted, particularly after the 12 day war. 

Anita Kellogg: He's also really old. 

Ryan Kellogg: He's very old. Yeah. He was 86. Um, so he had like a, a list of, [00:08:00] of individuals of his preferred successors. Um, so I think, I mean what's been interesting is around, has tried to signal knowing that.

Hey, we just had a significant portion of our defense security establishment decapitated on top of what happened in June, which is already a pretty significant blow. And they're trying to signal stability that, hey, you can't decapitate. You know, we're, we have these plans, we have an organization. They're still launching numerous strikes.

That's one thing I haven't mentioned is that Iran has targeted a very large number of, uh, countries within the Middle East. Um, the economists had a nice map as of this morning with the current strikes. Uh, but yeah, it covers Qatar, the UAE, Oman, Riyadh in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, and then obviously Israel being heavily targeted.

I even read this morning that, um, the British mentioned that some missiles are launched at Cyprus, which we've [00:09:00] visited. Mm-hmm. Um, and there's a, I think, uh, maybe a thousand or so UK soldiers based on theirs. So there's a lot of criticism. Um, the US and Israel are alone currently, right. In this operation.

Europe has largely condemned, you know, certainly some of the actions, but they're also wavering. Somewhat, I mean, obviously the, the, uh, kini and, and the Iranian regime, very evil despised, but obviously the actions being taken not legal in any sort of 

Anita Kellogg: Right. 

Ryan Kellogg: Sense of international law. 

Anita Kellogg: Jordan wants to encourage preemptive wars, and at least in Iraq, that's why it was so important that we made the excuse and went to the UN saying, yeah, we had weapons of destruction.

Yeah. 

Ryan Kellogg: There was just, they, yeah. All of that 

Anita Kellogg: had legal justification 

Ryan Kellogg: to 

Anita Kellogg: be able to provide that justification. Who I think he didn't even go to Congress, right? Let alone No, the UN and uh, so no attempt to follow the US law either, right? 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, exactly. 

Anita Kellogg: So, [00:10:00] and I know, you know, there was a lot of debate after Venezuela trying to make it more firm that the administration has to go to Congress before starting operations of this nature, especially.

As large scale as, as this is. So, you know, we know that Trump doesn't really care about the law as much as he can get away with it. 

Ryan Kellogg: Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, for sure. 

Anita Kellogg: But I could see you're being very concerned because you don't wanna set up, uh, a precedent, uh, precedent of preemptive wars, which of course, I mean, Trump is throwing out bath water.

So it is concerning from an international perspective, but that's why Kearney and others have declared the end of the global, uh, rules-based order because things that, the rules and laws that kept countries from doing this, that the US mostly stayed constrained by to a certain extent. I mean, there was Iraq, uh, 

Ryan Kellogg: yeah.

But even there, I mean to, I mean, what you said earlier, it [00:11:00] had congressional approval. It got, 

Anita Kellogg: yeah. 

Ryan Kellogg: Security council approval right from the un because, I mean, that was the whole thing Colin Powell presented. 

Anita Kellogg: I don't 

Ryan Kellogg: the fictitious evidence 

Anita Kellogg: maybe. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. So there was, there was blessing and then, you know, there was a coalition, the will and not every NATO ally was like up for the Iraq adventure to their credit, like France.

And of course there was the backlash. But, um, yeah, no, we, everything was done definitely legally within the US system. 'cause that was full congressional approval for those actions. Right. Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: I did read or see a statement that was given out by, um, the British Prime Minister who was talking about the defensive operations that they immediately undertook in the Middle East to protect their own assets.

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. And I think that's been the criticism I've seen online, especially with this attack on Cyprus, is that the U UK should get off the fence and at least defend its own assets and interests within their region. 

Anita Kellogg: I mean. [00:12:00] That's what he made it sound like. They were absolutely doing that. So I'm surprised that they're considered fence siters because that was not the impression I got from his statement.

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. I think it's maybe being part of active combat operations. Mm-hmm. Because they would still have significant resources they could bring to bear mm-hmm. Together with Israel in the us. 

Anita Kellogg: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. Well that was a great overview. Uh, so I think it kind of goes into one thing that I wanted to add too is about all those defense officials being killed, is that what I've read is there's a pretty deep bench though of successors to the leadership and that this is something that there were at least plans for.

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, definitely. I mean, it's, it's a very, um, complicated and, and deep, um, organization. I think it's just a matter, and we kind of made the allusion to one of our favorite sci-fi series, Battlestar Galactica, of which, you know, I won't bore people with the whole thing, but the [00:13:00] premise is, you know, the civilization is attacked and it has a very kind of us sort of system of presidents and cabinets and succession.

And the whole thing is that the, the attack is so bad that the head of state become is the former Secretary of education. Yeah. Which is probably like 20th because that was the only 

Anita Kellogg: cabinet member left. 

Ryan Kellogg: The only cabinet member left. I don't think we're in that situation where Ron, where you're like so many layers deep, um, you're certainly not, but you, you've taken off the top layer.

You know, it is definitely within the defense. Security and obviously the, the complete head of state. But that's, that's part of the goal though, going forward. 'cause obviously combat operations from what Trump's reported, will go on at least four days. 

Anita Kellogg: Did he say four days? 

Ryan Kellogg: He said four days at the beginning.

Yeah. That it was a, although didn't what Trump 

Anita Kellogg: days because they had lots of days still left to negotiate and of course he never like sticks with like, oh, you have 10 days to negotiate and then [00:14:00] we still might bomb you within that amount of time. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. So I think, I mean part of the goal and everything that I've read is they will be actively targeting everybody that's late, you know, uh, seen as a successor within the organization.

And if you can actually successfully do that and that sort of timeframe, despite knowing that they're being targeted, if they're that compromised and that vulnerable, I think that does begin to really destabilize the regime. I mean, 'cause you can, you can have a system and successors, but if they are literally knocked out within days of being named, then what chance does your organization have for 

Anita Kellogg: True.

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: True. So that kind of brings us to the goals. Uh, what exactly do you think the goals of the US government are and how are they defining success?

Ryan Kellogg: Yes. I think the, the, the goals for the us you know, from what you know, we've detailed and kind of what was demanded [00:15:00] in the negotiations being led up, and we talked about this in the, the last episode. Mm-hmm. I mean, they're very much maximalist, um, almost like complete total surrender demands. Uh, obviously all of this is being triggered from the long running nuclear issue, of which supposedly we wiped out their nuclear capacity according to Trump back in June.

But I guess there was still enough as we talked about. So obviously the biggest component is around nuclear. Current nuclear stockpile, fuel stockpile, and then the enrichment program, uh, seeing the complete end of that. But then it was expanded to ballistic missiles, which is something Israel pushed obviously.

Mm-hmm. 'cause they're in, you know, they're, they're facing it right now. Mm-hmm. I mean, I think this morning, uh, a pretty big apartment complex was taken out by Iranian hypersonic missile, so the end of their ballistic missile program and then the complete end and disassembly of all their proxies, which had been damaged significantly, but still exist, uh, particularly throughout the, the Middle East, 

Anita Kellogg: which are [00:16:00] pretty extreme goals because you're taking out a country's ability to defend itself.

And I mean, it's a pretty big impingement on a nation's sovereignty. 

Ryan Kellogg: Well, I mean y Yeah, well I would say more to project force abroad. I think it was still, you're not asking for it to, if it was invaded, that wouldn't have the capacity to defend itself. This is more about kind of force projection. So yeah, you are certainly ending all of its ambitions regionally.

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. 

Ryan Kellogg: Which is a lot for a revolutionary regime that was founded on, you know, like all revolutionaries. I mean, this is a ideological, heavily ideological and spreading its unique form of, of theocratic control. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah, I mean, I think the nuclear thing makes sense, but ending the complete ballistic missile program, that seems a little bit extreme in pigeoning again, again on sovereignty.

And you have the fact that you're asking them to get rid [00:17:00] of civilian uses of nuclear power, which will definitely impact their electricity generation. 

Ryan Kellogg: Uh, really? Come on. No, I don't think so. I mean, that was always, that was always a fig leaf. Oh. I think their current mix at one, they don't have an active like commercial nuclear reactor that I'm aware of.

Anita Kellogg: You sure 

Ryan Kellogg: about that? Um, I'm not sure, but I'm also like, this is, has the largest natural gas reserves in the world. Mm-hmm. Uh, there's no reason for them to pursue nuclear power. It wouldn't make economic, I mean, it barely makes economic sense here, but, 

Anita Kellogg: well, anyway, that makes sense to me. But the ballistic missiles, uh, seems, seems pretty extreme.

Ryan Kellogg: It, it was a big risk, but I think now it's, it's something, I mean, I, I would imagine that the demands are probably amped up even more. I, I think what they're gonna try to negotiate is essentially is something along the lines of Germany and Japan following the war. They're gonna expect if they're able to take out like another layer of [00:18:00] leadership and really show that any elite that doesn't make a deal is dead.

Within a week, 

Anita Kellogg: we essentially ran Korea and Japan for like years after the war. You think that's what we want? 

Ryan Kellogg: Uh, I, what I'm saying is I think that the terms of the negotiate, just knowing Trump and thinking rightfully so. You just, I mean, let's take a step back. This is kind of extraordinary. I mean, the dangerous part of this is he's had two extraordinary, and it just talks about the capabilities of our military, of Israeli military, of our intelligence organization.

Uh, how many months did it take us to get Saddam Hussein? 

Anita Kellogg: I don't remember. 

Ryan Kellogg: It took like, I don't know, like four or five months, and we had 200,000 troops on the ground. Mm-hmm. We killed him in the first day. It's truly extraordinary. And this follows the operation in Venezuela that we talked about. Just the logistics and complexity of that to put [00:19:00] several hundred special forces operation and to seize a leader.

So this guy's gonna trump's definitely feeling like he has all the leverage. So I think the terms of the negotiation just increased significantly for Iran that now you're talking about, um, potentially. And then this is where I had like the, uh, the other point, which has been emphasized a lot. Like you talked to Rubio, there's a lot of emphasis on we can't negotiate with these.

Insane Theocratic government. So I think part of it is the complete end of the Shia theocratic control. 

Anita Kellogg: Interesting though, because Trump did come out with a statement today or recently saying that negotiations were still possible. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, right. But it's the terms of negotiation. Yeah. Yeah. He 

Anita Kellogg: didn't, so, uh, so yeah, so it took, I just looked at, it took nine months to get to, took nine or almost nights, almost nine 

Ryan Kellogg: months.

I mean, we were in the Netherlands at the time, and I, uh, ah, I didn't know it was [00:20:00] that long. That's crazy. 

Anita Kellogg: But he was in a bunker. Right. And they, he used to, 

Ryan Kellogg: we can I complete control of the country. 

Anita Kellogg: It wasn't putting his leaders in Buckers though. I mean, that's part of Iran's problem. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. But still, still, it's just, it's, it's in the annals of military history.

It is pretty impressive. Between that and the, what Israel carried out in the 12 Day War pretty. Pretty impressive. 

Anita Kellogg: Oh, no doubt that our military is extraordinarily, uh, impressive and capable and no one should, should ever, uh, question the projection of, of power there. But it is how likely you can get Iran to agree to such maximalist objectives.

Of course. Yeah, of course. Yeah. Yeah. And I guess the question is how long do we pursue something like this if we can't get Iran to agree to, to these sort of 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. And I think that's where is very limited. [00:21:00] And, uh, and maybe you can give light on this too. I, I. I didn't, 'cause we don't have a subscription Wall Street Journal, but they've been doing excellent reporting in journal, I'd say over the last couple years.

But their, uh, headline was around munition supplies, uh, and how long the US can sustain like this bombing campaign. I don't know if that's, if, if that's something you've come across, but I think that's one of the limiting factors certainly at, at the pace and the number of targets that they're hitting, that there's a limited 

Anita Kellogg: timeframe on that munition, uh, shortages are a very serious concern.

And then you have to think about China and if you use up all your munitions, uh, which we have a very limited stockpile of, very limited. Uh, how does this affect your ability to. Uh, counter China were it to desire to take military action in Taiwan? I would say probably, I don't know if they're the same missiles, but likely some of them are.

Ryan Kellogg: Mm-hmm. For 

Anita Kellogg: sure. Yeah. And we, you know, projections, war games with China had us running out in seven days. So I [00:22:00] imagine Iran were not using as manys we would anticipate for China. Yeah, yeah. But it is still limited supply. Yeah. And how, how much are you willing to draw down on that supply? 

Ryan Kellogg: Yep. Yeah. Yeah. So I think that was the, that was the main point of it.

And then, um, and then, yeah, I mean, I don't think Trump, Trump for sure does not wanna get in a drawn out campaign and certainly nothing. That's the other thing, knock on wood. I mean, there's been no US casualties in either one of these operations, which is. Again, another extraordinary fact. But I think if that changes, let's say Iran, I don't know.

I mean, you hear about these hypersonic missiles, you hear about that they've tried to target the ships, you know, currently in the Persian Gulf. Um, you know, God forbid one of those gets through and you have like 500 dead sailors. Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. 

Ryan Kellogg: That changes the calculus completely. I mean, this is already heading into this.

20 some percent of Americans supported a strike on Iran, right? Very, very unpopular this, this [00:23:00] decision. Um, I think now if he can do it and basically just say, Hey, we came in, we took out this leader. And then if it doesn't, if it takes too long or it doesn't go the way, I, I don't think Trump has any problem just like pulling the plug and, 

Anita Kellogg: but then you have to 

Ryan Kellogg: define going off to the next thing, 

Anita Kellogg: but then you have to define success.

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. They killed the leader. That was a success. That was it. 

Anita Kellogg: Well, that doesn't seem like a success. 

Ryan Kellogg: What was doing Maduro? I mean, it was, I mean, I guess it was to get control of the Venezuelan oil. Right. And, uh, 

Anita Kellogg: so, 

Ryan Kellogg: and weak in Cuba. I mean, at least that one had a, a clearer path. Um, yeah, I think it's hard if you, I mean, I guess it just shows, I mean, they've no doubt degraded considerably the ability of Iran to launch.

'cause the other thing they're targeting were the ballistic missiles, those mobile units, and they've re-hit every single nuclear site and facilities, right? So the one where they were rebuilding, um, after the strikes from the B two bombers [00:24:00] during the 12 day war, I'm sure they've re hit, 

Anita Kellogg: right? 

Ryan Kellogg: So it just becomes kind of like a maintenance operation.

It's like, well, we degraded them again. We took out more missiles. We decapitated their regime. All of those can be just framed as, okay, well they're not a problem anymore. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah, I guess I see your point. I mean, on the other hand, you have these very clear demands and you're declaring success without getting those demands 

Ryan Kellogg: met.

He doesn't, you know, the way it's, the way he frames it. Um, the fact that they're gonna have a lot more control over the narrative based on some recent mergers and, and changes within the news landscape within the us, I don't think it's a real issue. Also, it's the biggest thing is you don't want this to be detrimental heading into the midterms, and the detrimental thing will be any American deaths and any increase in energy prices as a result of this action.

So I think that's the other thing that he'll be very conscious of, and that again, is very dynamic situation right now. The straight of hor [00:25:00] moles. It, the, one of the things the US targeted was the Iranian navy. 'cause that would be necessary for them to lay the mines. This very, you know, small passage between kind of the Arabian Peninsula and rare Iran juts out, that hasn't happened.

That being said, there aren't ships actively, you know, taking shipments in and out just because I think insurers right are nervous as hell, obviously about the situation. Um, but I think Iran, from people who monitor this real closely, what I've read, um, Iran is allowing the, uh, Russian and Chinese vessels to come in and out as of like yesterday.

But I think this morning it seems like stuff's been shut down. The other thing that happened this morning was, uh, apparently there was a, uh, kind of a, a false flag operation where Iran. Used one of its drones to attack one of its own shadow fleet tankers. Basically to try [00:26:00] to get oil markets to spike and to create a price.

'cause obviously Trump's very market driven. 

Anita Kellogg: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Kellogg: If prices were to spike, and just to give you reference on energy prices, so Brent, the international standard, I think before this conflict was trading around like $68 a barrel. 

Anita Kellogg: And even that was response to 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: Military buildup. 

Ryan Kellogg: This is after buildup.

Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: Right. So it'd been like 60. 

Ryan Kellogg: Around 60, yeah. Which was low. Definitely low. Um, so it'd gone up to 68 and now it's 73 this morning. Still relatively modest. Um, increases, it just shows you how like oversupplied the market is. The other thing OPEC did was they're gonna increase. Right. 

Anita Kellogg: I saw that 

Ryan Kellogg: their amount by a couple hundred thousand barrels a day, which again, small amount, but it's the market's generally oversupplied.

Mm-hmm. Um. It doesn't seem like the only thing that really would be yes, if Iran successfully mined this area. 'cause then the operations to clear those mines is very complicated and dangerous. So it would take a long time. Right. Um, 

Anita Kellogg: [00:27:00] yeah, that's, that's interesting that, yeah. So I mean, yeah, I think this can't be a long term thing for Trump, but it, I, I don't know, maybe it's just critics of Trump will see this as, as a bit of weakness if he's demanded these, these Maximus goals and, you know, toppling the, the leader doesn't mean any regime change and doesn't mean any, any change in the direction, uh, around, I mean their, their ability to protect power is definitely.

Hurt extraordinarily, but it doesn't mean they won't. Yeah, 

Ryan Kellogg: they've been hurt over the last 

Anita Kellogg: right 

Ryan Kellogg: year. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. But it doesn't mean they won't continue to pursue the same goals and then it just seems like you've accomplished very little. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. But I think from his point of view and just the way with the fractured media landscape, as long as you're signaling strength, and there's no doubt, no doubt, that both of these actions [00:28:00] signal strength, even if it's not substantial and like true strength or long duration strength or even like backfires on us interest, long term, short term, very strong looking, which I think is all they want.

'cause again, people care more about the domestic economy. True. That's what they're gonna be concerned about. So if you can just get the signal of strength and dominance. Because they like that word and, um, and don't increase energy prices, then it could be framed as I'm the big, strong, successful president who, uh, all these other presidents who are cs, um, weren't able to do.

Especially if they're able to take down a Venezuelan leader, take down the Iranian leader's, been around since 79, uh, and take down Cuba all in one fell swoop. It doesn't matter the details. People don't pay attention to details. It's just signaling strength. 

Anita Kellogg: So you're saying this is [00:29:00] essentially a follow the flag operation in which you might want to distract the population from the economy going into the midterms?

Ryan Kellogg: I think so, yeah. I, well, you know, to an extent. I mean, I think it enriches his buddies too. I mean, that's the other goal is you enrich yourself and rich, your buddies, 

Anita Kellogg: how's it enriching his buddies to go out? 

Ryan Kellogg: Oh, no, the the Venezuelan thing, he already gave like some, no, I know. The 

Anita Kellogg: Venezuelan thing. I mean, Iran.

Ryan Kellogg: Oh, Iran. Longer term. I think that's a longer term play that, that requires getting somebody who's gonna play ball. 

Anita Kellogg: Right. 

Ryan Kellogg: And maybe that leads us into like who, who are the possible candidates for the US in terms of who do we think could actually like play ball? 'cause I think the goal is to do essentially something very similar.

To Maduro, but it's, it's, you get rid of the theocratic. 'cause those guys don't, those guys are nuts in their mind. You know, I think these guys are nuts. But, um, and get somebody on the military side who's pragmatic, who you know, has a hand in all the, I mean, 'cause the [00:30:00] revolutionary Guard has their hands in all the businesses and, and things.

That's true. So just funny how he plays ball. 

Anita Kellogg: Before we get to that, what about Israel? Will Israel be content with the US pulling back after a few days? 

Ryan Kellogg: Um, I, I think, I mean, well one, they've proven themselves more than capable of doing whatever they want. I mean, I think we'll continue to support them intelligence wise, even if we pull out, you know, a carrier group and aren't like actively expending ordinance.

Um, so I, I, I think, and then Netanyahu has his own domestic reasons of keeping it going, keeping the thread, Iran going. Um, so yeah, I, I don't think they'll have an issue. 

Anita Kellogg: Do you think there'll be any boots on the ground? 

Ryan Kellogg: No. Beyond, um, there is the, and I did read this, which reinforced, uh, kind of my earlier thoughts, but yeah.

I think special forces may be deployed. 

Anita Kellogg: Well, that is sort of boots on the ground y 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. And a very limited sense Yeah. That the US population accepts. Yeah. Yeah. It's not, but it's not [00:31:00] enlisted. I mean, you know, it's enlisted guy, but not 

Anita Kellogg: Right. I understand what you're 

Ryan Kellogg: saying. Not regular troops. Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: I understand what you're saying.

Ryan Kellogg: Um, because I think one of the concerns, you know, if things really destabilize is that, I think we talked about during the 12 day war, you know, Iran has several hundred kilograms of fairly highly enriched, but not weapons grade. Mm-hmm. Nuclear material. You gotta get control of that. 

Anita Kellogg: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Kellogg: It's probably a lot.

Well, we don't know. We don't know where it, it may be buried under. Ground in that one installation, or it may be somewhere else that they moved it out. 'cause that was the speculation before the bombing. You have to get control on that. You can't let that get out of the country. So that's where special forces would presumably come in to, to get control of those stockpiles.

Anita Kellogg: Makes sense. All right. So going to what, what you were transitioning to, is this more about who the US hopes would take over? Or is this like, is there a high likelihood of [00:32:00] these individuals taking over? 

Ryan Kellogg: I don't think there's a high likelihood of these individuals taking over. Um, but yeah, I mean, the things that, that I've read, um.

Were the two names I've read of like possible candidates. Uh, one was, uh, Hassan, uh, Rouhani, who was the former kind of moderate president mm-hmm. Of, of Iran. So he had at least been seen as having, um, you know, some basis of support within Iran itself. I think the other one who actually wrote a op-ed piece in the Washington Post, which may be, um, a criticism of the Washington Post.

Obviously Washington Post has gone way downhill, recently fired a significant portion including its whole foreign affairs staff. Right. The majority of it. Yeah, the majority of it. Um, but this one who has been getting a lot of traction within the west is, uh, Reza, uh, Pavi, who's the son of the last Shah.

And he's seen as of the expats and [00:33:00] there's is significant, I mean, there's 4 million. Iranian expats, um, living in like the US and the uk. Uh, I know there were pretty big celebrations in Georgetown yesterday, um, from the Iranian expat community around the death of, uh, the Ayatollah. But essentially he wrote in this op-ed not, you know, advocating for the re restoration of the monarchy, which there's zero support, right, I would think for that within Iran.

Um, but rather a transition government of which, you know, of course his group would, would help lead. 

Anita Kellogg: I think this is the least likely scenario. 

Ryan Kellogg: It's all, yeah, it was all the talk to, this was during the Iraq war too. There were plenty of like. Iraqi expats. 

Anita Kellogg: Yep. 

Ryan Kellogg: I can't remember the one, one individual that kind of the Bush administration at the, the beginning of the war really focused on.

Anita Kellogg: It never really goes well when expats try to take over a country either. Historically, that has not been, uh, successful. There certainly [00:34:00] very, very short-lived, to what extent that has ever occurred. But I, I definitely think this is the least likely scenario. Plus you would have so much opposition internally within the country.

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. I mean, where's this basis of support? 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. 

Ryan Kellogg: And more importantly, and I think this gets to, um, uh, the other thing that I noted this morning was, uh, actually our Bethesda neighbor, John Bolton. Uh, was interviewed and, and then from the headlines, because there's been a lot of jokes also online that John Bolton is like, loving this.

This is like what John Bolton always wanted, safety cap, but he was actually very critical. 'cause I think, you know, he's become a big critic of, of, uh, the administration and its decision making. I think it's the haphazard nature of it. 

Anita Kellogg: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Kellogg: And what he fears is the lack of planning, um, of, for the events kind of afterwards.

Mm-hmm. But, well, 

Anita Kellogg: that sounds like the US 

Ryan Kellogg: Well, yeah, 

Anita Kellogg: it's usually our problem. I mean, and just, you really have to contrast this to Venezuela where [00:35:00] all we, we had kind of all we wanted was control of the oil. And we were very happy to work with, you know, Maduro successor. We did not advocate regime change.

And we were, you know, uh, almost against any sort of democratic transition. So, because like, yeah. Yeah. So it's pretty different to want to get rid of the current regime. It's, it's a much dramatic, it is a very much more dramatic change. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: And much harder to manage. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Yeah. No, and I think it, it, it, um, yeah, it comes down to, you know, with any of these, you ultimately have to have a group of men with guns that are supporting your faction in order to be successful in any sort of clue.

And that part is completely unclear. I mean, Bolton, you know, is kind of speculating on. Not so much the Iranian [00:36:00] revolutionary guard who is seen as still pretty ideologically tied to the Theocratic regime. Mm-hmm. But it has to be part of the re 'cause you have other sections within the mi, they're kind of the elite part of the military.

Mm-hmm But then you have the regular military and can you get enough like colonels and generals to break off from the regular military? And that's something that, that's what intelligence services do. This is what like the CIA would do or the Israeli Mossad would do. And then you're working with the whatever opposition groups.

'cause that's the problem is, yeah, you've had million, literally millions of people in Iran last month protesting in the streets, you know, against this regime, against the economic situation. But this is just a mo, this isn't an organized group with leaders, let alone people with guns, which is what they need.

Mm-hmm. So it's not clear at all. I, is there stuff going on with the intelligence services in the background that are coordinating because Trump's this is what they're counting on. I mean, Trump [00:37:00] came out in that speech and said to the Iranian people, this is your chance. You're not gonna get another chance.

You need to overthrow your government. So it's almost like that's part of the strategy, which if there's no support, and that's, uh, Christoph, Nicholas Christoph had a, um, you know, op-ed in, in terms of like, what are the fundamental things that we could actually be doing? And one of the, the biggest things is get the internet, you know, make sure we had started this program and trying to get starlink mm-hmm.

Deployed as to many people in the country. But I, I don't get the impression that that is being pushed forward, but it's, it's all unknown. I mean, I, I'm just speculating on, but those are the things you'd have to, one, communication, two intelligence coordination with. Opposition grew and then critically enough, like, um, divisions within the regular military, or I guess, I mean, if you had to break a split within the revolutionary guard, that you could [00:38:00] actually have enough guns essentially to break down internal security.

Anita Kellogg: That's very true. Uh, then you're asking military leaders to give up all these sort of military strategy positions. 

Ryan Kellogg: No, I think the, um, that's where the deal making, and maybe we're Trump is, uh, no, I mean, you're making a deal where, where are you even making a deal? It's like, Hey, you know, you're. This opposition dude that, um, and, and the revolutionary guard who controls like, hmm, let's say like the midstream operations and gets like money for every, like natural gas that flows outta the country.

He gets like a, his be beque. He's like, well, you get, take that over now. So you're making deals with like these individual generals and military leaders and you're saying, Hey, we'll keep you in the business. We'll keep you in the loop. You know, you're not gonna, you're gonna gain from this. And you begin to split off that way where you're carving up like commercial interests that [00:39:00] maybe the hardliners have, and then you're offering it up to these guys.

It's like part of their incentive. 'cause I think everybody needs the economic incentive right. To, for guys with guns to come over. 

Anita Kellogg: Right. Well, it's not even if these fractions in the, in the military exist, it's about whether they can have popular support as well. 

Ryan Kellogg: Um, 

Anita Kellogg: because you need a certain even Yeah.

Ryan Kellogg: That's 

Anita Kellogg: why I think even though the Iranian regime Right. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: Still has a base of support. Right. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. And I think that's, that's important to realize is, um, and man, I swear it's so hard like on social media, knowing what's real, what's ai, what's, but um, there were videos showing Yeah. Significant, um, population mourning the ITO within Toronto.

Right? 

Anita Kellogg: Absolutely. Like we cannot forget, we see these protests 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: And they are rights, the the whole population. Yeah. But the majority, and they're in the rural areas, but the majority still support 

Ryan Kellogg: bus them into the cities, I think, but yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: Right. I mean, [00:40:00] they're not largely in the cities. They're in the, they are in the rural, uh, populations, but they have strongly supported the regime.

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: And. You have to have some basis of societal support. I think that's what people don't understand about, uh, autocratic regimes too, right? That no matter how deadly your military is, uh, and certainly Iran has, has been willing to use that against its own people. That you cannot rule totally through fear, that you must actually have some support for whatever regime takes over.

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, for, for sure. Um, so yeah, I think it's, it's extraordinarily difficult, but does seem like they're putting the onus of regime change on, you know, the masses of urban protestors. And it's not at all clear, you know, what do they do? And obviously you [00:41:00] don't know this, but yeah, it's a, it's all the intelligence work.

I mean, the things that we do know is that. The internal intelligence and security with Iran are thoroughly, thoroughly compromised. 

Anita Kellogg: Right. 

Ryan Kellogg: So you have to think that Mossad and the CIA at a pretty high level have a number of informants and people that cooperate. So you build something Absolutely. Based on that.

Anita Kellogg: I mean, that's entirely possible. And, and I think the biggest thing that we, any comment commentator, even if it's someone like Bolton, just can't know, like we just absolutely justly cannot know how strong our intelligence is, uh, 

Ryan Kellogg: predicting other than the evidence of what we're seeing in 

Anita Kellogg: the battlefield Predicting, in predicting a new regime.

Ryan Kellogg: Y Yeah. Yeah. We just know that com obviously our 

Anita Kellogg: intelligence is very strong, right? 

Ryan Kellogg: It's very compromised 

Anita Kellogg: right there, but we don't know how strong the intelligence is in supporting who comes next. 

Ryan Kellogg: No. 

Anita Kellogg: And that's a much [00:42:00] harder thing to do. 

Ryan Kellogg: I think so. Yeah. Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: And how much. Trump is, is listening to intelligence too, is always in terms of that, I mean, I don't know.

Ryan Kellogg: And his pa ultimately this comes down to his patience too. And impact, again, any negative impact on the US economy. He's out. Yeah, he's out the next day. He's over. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. So, uh, besides who you've listed so far, anyone else potential, uh, uh, 

Ryan Kellogg: have 

Anita Kellogg: any significance? 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, I mean, there's a lot. I guess one guy who's gotten a lot of attention because he was brought inside, um.

Ku, uh, K's, um, inner circle was this Ali, uh, Ani is the, uh, the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, and he's the one that I think was put in charge of negotiations with the us. He's also been the one, um, making the most appearances on Iranian state television that gets broadcast to the west.

And he's, he's struck a very [00:43:00] defiant tone. He could not technically qualify under the Iranian constitution as a leader because he is not a, he doesn't have a theocratic, um, religious background, but some people are seeing him as like kind of an outside candidate. I think the biggest ones that are being named is the, the current head of the judiciary.

Mm-hmm. Who is a theocratic, who I know is also being, being targeted. And then the other one, which actually the, um, KU was not, um. Supportive of, but his own, uh, son or, yeah, yeah, yeah. Sorry. Uh, Moaba, Kae is the son of the, uh, the previous, the recently executed itoa. Uh, but he was actually against having a, um, a dynastic that isn't seen as kind of part of the mm-hmm.

Iranian revolution and, and guard. Um, so yeah. It's, it's, it's, and these are, these are more, the more likely candidates internally, certainly not the US preferred ones. Right. I think basically any [00:44:00] theocratic leader is probably a no go, just based on what's coming out from, from the White House and, and Right.

The leadership there. Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: Right. Well, one thing that's clear is this will likely not be another Iraq. The willingness to, the length of willingness to engage in this conflict as well as boots on the ground. And I think it is worth noting for all my skepticism of regime change or something very fundamental, which I mean, maybe, maybe the intelligence has support for this, I don't know.

But it's just very difficult to accomplish and we haven't been able to do that successfully in the past. But Iran has a very sophisticated society and that should be mentioned as well. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Yep. Yeah, it's not a personal dictatorship established constitution very, you know, involved, um, system of succession and decision [00:45:00] making.

Uh, so yeah, it requires, and it kinda like mentioned at the beginning of it like this, again, you have to just have complete intelligence, dominance that you're able to just. At this stage continue to will, you know, just take out leadership as it's named, continue to target it and take them out, and that that's what we'll see kind of play out over.

If they're successful in that, then, then yeah, maybe it does really begin to destabilize the regime. But I think that the real open question is how much, and as this true instability occurs, um, how much more desperate will the regime get in terms of its attacks and being able, and how successful Israel and USB and neutralizing the ballistic missiles, particularly because I mean, they've been targeting, uh, you know, these commercial centers, you know, high tech commercial centers, Dubai and Abu Dhabi, and, um, attacking like hotels, you know, with the, with these [00:46:00] missiles.

Um, they have not, I mean, that's the, the interesting thing is they have not done what everybody would really fear is like attacking. Energy oil installations. Right? Like within Saudi Arabia, within the UAE, but at certain point, do they just start doing that? 

Anita Kellogg: Right. 

Ryan Kellogg: Do they still have the capacity to do that?

That's, I mean, it's just, there's a lot of unknowns at this stage, but that was always the thing. It was like, well, if they're, if this is the end and they think that you know what's ahead is death, then release everything you got and Right. That's, and take every risk possible. They talk about sleeper cells.

Again, I don't know it, I mean, everything that Iran's advertised over the last two years has just been continuing degradation and weakness. Mm-hmm. So do they have the ability to strike at, and, and that's why I'm saying it's easier for them to strike Europe. Mm-hmm. But Europe has been on the fence. So is there a 

Anita Kellogg: right 

Ryan Kellogg: or is that real target?

So [00:47:00] then it becomes. Can they strike Israel? Obviously they're bombing Israel currently. Do they have cells where they have suicide bombers within Israel society? You haven't seen that a lot. And then obviously you have to mention here, do they have assets within North America that they could target? Um, 

Anita Kellogg: so two things I kind of wanted to conclude on.

One is I just think it has to be emphasized. Regime change could mean, uh, a lot of social instability and it is a big risk anytime you change regime. Oh yeah. Yeah. And that goes back to why I said whoever succeeds will have to have a lot of societal support. And if you don't, you could see somebody working with the US but face a lot of internal challenges.

And that could just lead to a situation of us in my failed state even. Mm-hmm. And definitely something that would be very, very undesirable. And I hope our intelligence services know how to prevent that and feel certain we can prevent. But to what you were talking about on sleeper cells, I do wanna just say that [00:48:00] obviously I'm around a lot of military individuals and some of them were talking about how they are concerned how this might lead to a new generation of terrorism or increased terrorism.

Mm-hmm. And that doesn't necessarily have to be on US soil. That can just mean, you know, US assets. That's what, you know, uh, Osama was originally targeting. So I think to keep in mind, it doesn't have to be on US soil to have an increase in terrorism, an increase in terrorist threat that could lead to the death of many Americans.

Ryan Kellogg: Right. Yep. Yep. No, that's very true. I mean, and it is worth me, I mean, they have definitely targeted us bases. They hit a, probably the most dramatic visuals I've seen is Iranian missile hitting a satellite installation, I think at one of our Naval headquarters. Uh, I mean, I think we've done a great job 'cause we've been evacuating and moving.

Mm-hmm. Um, uh, personnel, uh, kind of out of the outta harm's way, so nobody's been hurt or injured thus far. Uh, but they're definitely, I mean, targeting [00:49:00] these areas. But I mean, air, air defense has been generally good. Again, it comes back to, um, same for Israel, you know, the munitions. So how much, uh, can, and, and, you know, there's some speculation that Iran is just sending, its, its weak stuff, so it's non hypersonic missiles.

Uh, in order to deplete the, uh, air defense mm-hmm. Uh, munitions of Israel and the US before sending like real, but that, that could just help EBS too. 

Anita Kellogg: I was just saying the iron dome is, is more for these short range missiles. 

Ryan Kellogg: Mm-hmm. 

Anita Kellogg: It doesn't really protect against like hypersonics, but those are often easier to shoot down in general, uh, from what I've heard, what I was listening to.

Ryan Kellogg: Okay. 

Anita Kellogg: Uh, but I think we have to think about just not even Iranian terrorists, but this could inspire a whole, uh, a new, uh, generation of terrorists as well in the Middle East. 

Ryan Kellogg: It could, um, yeah, they would have to, I would think it would've to be Shia, so I think yeah, both. It would have to [00:50:00] come from, from Iraq or Iran.

But certainly, and what they've been playing internally in terms of their own focus is it seems like Israel hit a, a girls school and Iran, so they're reporting like several hundred children dead. 

Anita Kellogg: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Kellogg: That's, that's definitely the sort of thing that creates future terrorist. Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: So I think that is something that you have to be concerned.

And maybe Trump is less concerned about that because he's only interested he short term, the short term consequences. But I know there is definitely concern by some in the military. I'm not saying it represents majority, but certainly some people I know have talked about it. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Yep. 

Anita Kellogg: Well, I think this covers pretty well what we know at this stage, which again, it's very early, maybe a little more than 24 hours into the conflict, but.

Hopefully this gave, uh, some insight into [00:51:00] where things stand now and what is most likely to happen in the future. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, and I think just for, uh, just to provide a little snapshot of where the betting markets 

Anita Kellogg: Oh, 

Ryan Kellogg: yeah. Because we're all a bunch of degenerates now betting on these things. But, uh, so poly market has currently, as of this morning, uh, March 1st, 2026, a 23% chance that the Iranian regime will fall by the end of the month.

So we'll see. Will, will you take that bet? 

Anita Kellogg: Sure. 

Ryan Kellogg: You would take that bet. Okay. 

Anita Kellogg: Well, 

Ryan Kellogg: I mean, it's a good bailout. Yeah, exactly. 

Anita Kellogg: I'm always wrong on these things. So one of my friends at work just teases me and said like, name, name, what side you're on, so I can choose the opposite. 

Ryan Kellogg: I. 

Anita Kellogg: I think if we can sustain operations through March 31st, then you might see a father.

I think. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. I think we can sustain it. Um, 

Anita Kellogg: if we don't sustain it, if we only want [00:52:00] something to be a week or two weeks 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: Then I think it's unlikely to 

Ryan Kellogg: fall. And this is, and how is this defined by poly market? Does this mean like the end of the theocratic? So if a military takes over that counts as like the end of the regime, even if it's somebody that was existing within the structure of it.

Anita Kellogg: Right. 

Ryan Kellogg: Well, I don't know. I, I'm asking, I don't know how poly market decides these payouts. 

Anita Kellogg: Well, I think probably the majority, normally you trust poly market and these things because of wisdom of the crowds. But I'm not sure there's enough information for the crowds to, it's 

Ryan Kellogg: just gambling. Most of this gambling.

Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: Well, I mean, the thing about even gambling, right, is that if you have a lot of people on the same side see the odds the same way, then it's likely. That you, you usually wanna take that better way. No, it's 

Ryan Kellogg: because people 

Anita Kellogg: put real money on now. There's lots of things that they don't predict. Right.

Brexit is really famous for the [00:53:00] markets predicting that there would not be Brexit. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Well that admittedly was close. And then, um, you know, a lot of people speculate that was influenced by, uh, by the bad weather too, like around London. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. 

Ryan Kellogg: That people just didn't go out to vote. Right. And young people didn't go out to vote.

So that 

Anita Kellogg: was one of the more famous things I can remember the betting markets being wrong on, but they're usually right. So it's probably pretty bold of me to take that bet. I don't know. 

Ryan Kellogg: Alright, well you're on the record for, you think the Iranian regime will fall by March 31st. You should put like a hundred bucks on it and say 

Anita Kellogg: no, because I'm always wrong.

I have a reputation of being wrong about these things. I totally, 

Ryan Kellogg: and you were right about a rock, so I've always defer to you on milli. 

Anita Kellogg: That is true. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: I was right on that. 

Ryan Kellogg: You were right on that. Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: I mostly 

Ryan Kellogg: from the very beginning, like way before the, 

Anita Kellogg: yeah. 

Ryan Kellogg: Months before the war began, 

Anita Kellogg: we had a lot of arguments about it.

Ryan Kellogg: Mm-hmm. Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: Intense arguments. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: More emotional than arguments probably should have been. [00:54:00] But you were so convinced that I was like, against democratic reform in Iraq and you thought I was just 

Ryan Kellogg: a bad person. Yeah. I was just convinced. And I think, you know, it is, it is hubris, its success breeds, uh, hubris too.

And the US certainly, and I mean, even like Hex Seth was bringing up the Gulf War. I feel like that that thing, which historically just such a stunning, the most stunning US military success on a very large scale. Mm-hmm. And so one sided mm-hmm. Complete with everything that. Somebody in the US would ima, you know, where it's over within a month.

Stunning victory. Troops come home to parades across the country. Uh, limited objectives. You free, you know, you're clearly, you're freeing a, you know, occupied country and then leaving. Um, but it created such like a hubris. So going back to how kind of you [00:55:00] started with like Venezuela with the success of that.

Anita Kellogg: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Kellogg: And then, you know, the success Israel had, um, and the 12 Day War, that is just like, 

Anita Kellogg: it's much more limited aims. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: So what I would say is if we maintain this level of operations through March 31st, which we talked about, do we even have munitions? Are we willing to deplete our munitions enough to maintain this sort of campaign?

Yeah. For a month. Right. It's, it's March 1st 

Ryan Kellogg: and you're, you're successful in just like knocking out one level of leadership after another. 

Anita Kellogg: So if you can maintain it by March 31st, then I think the regime will fall. But I think there could be, I don't know that they will be a successful transition. 

Ryan Kellogg: Oh, yeah, yeah.

Well, you're not, that's not, 

Anita Kellogg: I'm not betting on that. That's 

Ryan Kellogg: not what the best, 

Anita Kellogg: I just need be clear that I'm not saying there'll be a successful 

Ryan Kellogg: transition. It just, if it falls, if the theocratic regime falls, 

Anita Kellogg: and basically what I'm saying is I think there's a better than 23% chance. 

Ryan Kellogg: Okay. I'm not, yeah, because 

Anita Kellogg: you're taking 

Ryan Kellogg: that back.

Anita Kellogg: I'm not giving you like, oh, this is even [00:56:00] 60 or 70%. I'm just 

Ryan Kellogg: saying. But if it say you wouldn't take it if it was at 50. 

Anita Kellogg: Right. I would not. 

Ryan Kellogg: You're like if pay off a good enough at 23. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. 

Ryan Kellogg: Okay. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. That's my thinking. 

Ryan Kellogg: Oh, sounds legit. 

Anita Kellogg: What is your thinking? What are you committing yourself to take 

Ryan Kellogg: that 

Anita Kellogg: you, if you, 

Ryan Kellogg: I don't know if I would take that.

Anita Kellogg: So you, you definitely 

Ryan Kellogg: think Yeah, 'cause I, I just think, I mean if they're smart, they will drive up energy prices. That is probably the number one thing that would like Trump's bailing at that point. Yeah. He's like, he's gonna declare victory. Move on the ne move on to Cuba. That's waiting there. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah, 

Ryan Kellogg: that's waiting there.

That's a clear victory. Great real estate. 

Anita Kellogg: Although we dunno what would, there's definitely a lot of instability that could follow that as well. So I guess what I'm saying better to the 20, I just think that's low. But I also, I wanna make clear that. My feelings presume that we keep this up to March 31st.

If we [00:57:00] don't keep this up to March 31st, of course the regime won't fall. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, yeah. And that's what I'm saying is we probably won't. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. So I just want my prediction to be clear when I'm 

Ryan Kellogg: Okay. All the caveats when we revisit this in a month and you're, 

Anita Kellogg: and you're like, you're wrong, you're wrong. 

Ryan Kellogg: But I'm gonna open the next, except 

Anita Kellogg: probably this is how it usually works.

Uh, hopefully we will be back before a month because I imagine a lot of things will be changing on the ground, so, 

Ryan Kellogg: yeah. Yeah, yeah. No, I imagine. 

Anita Kellogg: All right. Well, I think that brings us to the end of this episode of Kellogg's Global Politics. You can visit our website at www kellogg's global politics.com and follow us on X at Global Kellogg or me at ar kellogg.

Ryan Kellogg: You can also reach us by email, so Anita at kellogg's global politics.com and myself, Ryan at kellogg's global politics.com. As always, uh, please see the show notes for the articles we discuss in this episode. 

Anita Kellogg: Thanks everyone. 

Ryan Kellogg: Thanks. Bye [00:58:00] bye.