US-Iran Negotiations, Orban Falls, and All Eyes on Cuba

In this episode, we continue our coverage of the war with Iran. Where are we on the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran? How soon can we expect the Strait of Hormuz to reopen?

We then discuss the stunning upset of Orban in Hungary. How far will his successor go in returning the country to a liberalized democracy? What does this mean for far-right movements across the globe?

Finally, we return to Venezuela to discuss the current situation there and examine the implications of this case for U.S. goals in Cuba.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 09:20 Iran-US Peace Talks & Energy Markets
• 30:40 The Downfall of Orban and What it Means for the Global Far Right
• 55:30 The Donroe Doctrine: Venezuela's Success and Is Cuba Next?

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Topic 1: Iran-US Peace Talks & Energy Markets

• The Price of Peace With Iran (Foreign Affairs)
• The U.S. Military Was Losing Its Edge. After Iran, Everyone Knows It. (NY Times)
• Oil markets are still in La La land (The Economist)

Topic 2: The Downfall of Orban and What it means for the Global Far Right

• How Orban, a Wizard of Populism, Lost His Magic Touch (NY Times)
• Orban’s Defeat Punctures Europe’s Far Right, but Also Offers It a Road Map (NY Times)
• The Transatlantic MAGA Fantasy (Foreign Affairs)

Topic 3: The Donroe Doctrine: Venezuela Success and Is Cuba Next?

• Venezuela is not the triumph Donald Trump claims, but it’s improving (The Economist)
• A dirty deal with Cuba would be better than the alternatives (The Economist)
• With Cuba Under Pressure, the Castro Dynasty Is Making a Comeback (NY Times)

Anita's article "Operationalizing Economic Statecraft," in War on the Rocks

Anita's webinar on the above article

Follow Us

• Show Website: www.kelloggsglobalpolitics.com
• Show Twitter: @GlobalKellogg
• Anita’s Twitter: @arkellogg
• Show YouTube

Transcript

Anita Kellogg: [00:00:00] Welcome to Kellogg's Global Politics. I'm Anita and I'm here with my co-host, Ryan. 

Ryan Kellogg: Thanks and glad to be here. 

Anita Kellogg: In today's episode, we continue our coverage of the war with Iran. Where are we with respect to negotiations between the US and Iran? How soon can we expect to see the reopening of the Strait of Hermus?

We then discuss the stunning upset of Orban in Hungary. How far will his successor go in returning the country to a liberalized democracy? What does this mean for far right movements across the globe? Finally, we return to Venezuela to discuss the current situation there and look at the implications of this case for the US goals in Cuba.

Ryan Kellogg: So you've had a, uh, very, very busy month, Great. ... as is, I guess, tradition at the National Defense University and Industry Studies. So you just got back, I guess, a couple weeks ago from a two week trip [00:01:00] around critical minerals. So you wanna, you wanna update the audience a little bit about that?

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. So at some point I'll have to have an episode like I did last year about the critical minerals industry study, but basically we get to take our students to meet with, as I've said before, industry, government academia. So we spent the first week domestically in Denver and Las Vegas, went out and saw the mountain past mine, which has been in the news because of the government equity stake in it.

And it's the only source of rain minerals in the United States. So so in Argentina and Chile, we saw, we went to see, uh, an underground copper mine, one of the biggest in the world. We were, like, almost two miles underground, which is crazy. Even crazy, it was so big that you could, like, drive down there.

We went to the underground mine in Denver, like, you had to take this very slow elevator, but it was [00:02:00] pretty fascinating, and we met with some high level government officials in Argentina, really got a sense of where the mining industry is there. It could be important allies to the US in boistering its critical mineral supply chain.

Ryan Kellogg: Right. But going back, going back to the ... I mean, this wasn't just any mine. I mean, this is the fam- the world famous Chilean mine where- Oh, 

Anita Kellogg: yeah. ... 

Ryan Kellogg: the miners got, got trapped, trapped there and they made that movie, which I haven't seen. And you guys were gonna watch it, but you end up not doing it because it'd make too me nervous or

Anita Kellogg: I was not ... I personally decided not to watch it until after we went. Yeah. Uh, so I haven't watched it yet. Yeah. But I probably should at some point. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, yeah. Yeah. And that's, uh, that ... So, so going down into this mine, you said you, you drove down? 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah, it's crazy. 

Ryan Kellogg: Is it just, like, it's not a straight ramp. What is it like going

I mean, how does ... 'Cause you're [00:03:00] going two miles down, that's insane. Yeah. So is it just like a road that you're a straight slope or is it like a back and forth sorta? 

Anita Kellogg: Uh, back and forth. 

Ryan Kellogg: Like going down a mountain? 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah, 

Ryan Kellogg: kinda like that. Kinda like that? But, but deep, deep underground. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, that's, that's hard for me to even- 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah.

Ryan Kellogg: even fathom. Even when, because working in the oil industry, I mean, we, we, yes, we, we drill wells, but these are wellbores with like 12 inch diameters. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. No, 

Ryan Kellogg: these are like- I mean, I mean something where you have a giant ... Yeah, and was it, was it just cleared big enough for a car or was it really wide, like a highway?

Anita Kellogg: No, it wasn't super wide, no. Okay. But we're on a bus, right? Yeah. So buses go down there. Um- Bus is good now. But it's one way, so- 

Ryan Kellogg: Okay. Yeah. Okay. That's what I was trying to get at. Yeah. Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: So sometimes you have to wait a really long time for tropical side. And how 

Ryan Kellogg: long does it take to go down on a bus two miles?

Anita Kellogg: I wasn't looking at my watch. I have no idea. 

Ryan Kellogg: Okay. [00:04:00] Well, there is a very and maybe we should post this on the website. Maybe this could be the feature picture, but you're like all kitted up and PPE and a respirator and, um, so what, what was that experience like? 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah, and they actually made us wear the respirator at some time.

Yeah. Sometimes. When we've gone to other mines, they make you carry all the safety equipment in case, you know, there's a cave in or something like that, but mostly you're, you're not gonna use it. But we did use the respirator. I mean, it's always all that stuff that's on you, it's always a little tricky.

 But yeah, we were in full suits in Chile, unlike just having more of a vest in Denver. We went to the underground mine in Henderson outside of Denver. So yeah, it was, it was pretty intense. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: And you have like all, you have all kinds of just little equipment that you're stuffed in pockets and stuff.

It was funny though trying to find things that are like [00:05:00] my size. Like the boots were a little too big. They were a size six. I was like, "Do you have anything smaller?" And they're like, "No, we don't have anything smaller." 

Ryan Kellogg: You know, that was a question. Uh, my parents actually thought it would be easier for you to get stuff your size.

I think because they send people going down in mines are smaller in stature, but I think based on this mining operation you're not fitting into tight spaces. 

Anita Kellogg: No. 

Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: I mean, modern, modern mining is, is clearly your parents still have it. And I guess a lot of people do and have this old version of mining- But how was it portrayed 

Ryan Kellogg: in the movie and what was exactly the accident?

I mean, this sounds like such a- 

Anita Kellogg: Why are you asking me that? I just said I could 

Ryan Kellogg: watch it. Oh, I don't know. Well, it's a rhetorical question. I'm just saying this is why people have these things about mines because when it comes up, it's always either this the incident in Thailand, that wasn't really mine, that was a caving system and then, and then Chile, it's always like people trapped in- 

Anita Kellogg: [00:06:00] Yeah.

Ryan Kellogg: tight spaces. So I think people still have that old impression of- No, it's not 

Anita Kellogg: like 

Ryan Kellogg: that at all. ... mining and- It's 

Anita Kellogg: people operating big machinery that are taking chunks of material out of the wall. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: That's what happens. It's just big, it's a lot of big machinery. 

Ryan Kellogg: I think I would wanna know if if Hollywood shows that with modern mining or 

Anita Kellogg: not.

Yeah. No one is.

Ryan Kellogg: 'Cause, uh, oh, oh, the other instance was, uh, of course Zoolander, very famous, uh, famous movie with, um, I forgot the two, two actors. Will 

Anita Kellogg: Ferrell and, uh- 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, Will Ferrell's in it, Ben Affleck, and then, um- Oh, is it Ben Aflac? No, no, no, Ben Affleck. 

Anita Kellogg: No, it's not him. It's, um, what is his name? 

Ryan Kellogg: But is Ben. 

Anita Kellogg: Ben something.

Stiller. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, Ben Stiller, and then the other guy that kinda has the, it's a little bit crooked nose. 

Anita Kellogg: Owen Wilson? 

Ryan Kellogg: Owen Wilson. There you go. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. Famously, his character- I know you apparently have to 

Anita Kellogg: rely on me to [00:07:00] know anyone's 

Ryan Kellogg: names. Ben, yes, it is up to you. Ben Stiller's character, um, he's like, he, he goes into the fashion world- Right.

because he's avoiding coal mining and just the way that that was presented- Oh, yeah. ... in the, uh, the early 2000s was still that very stereotypical- Yeah. ... you're down there with a pick accent. 

Anita Kellogg: Which is like one of the difficult things for the mining industry to get workers too, right? Yeah. It just has this perception and that- 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, I could see that.

Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: It was cool in Chile, we also saw one of their ... So there's like six mines within this main mine, and one of them is fully automated because it's, it's really dangerous for people. Yeah. So it's cool to see the automation and you have somebody like sitting in a, like a chair, like a gaming chair with like sticks on the side controlling these machines.

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. And it is a very similar sort of analogy to, to oil and gas now that I think about it, because again, I haven't watched these shows, but like landmen, I mean, it's very popular sort of say, but the way the oil industry is always [00:08:00] presented is the wildcat rough neckers out there using chains to move pipe, just all these sort of dangerous practices that were probably common like 30, 40 years ago, but now a lot of it is, is automated especially with, especially with like a larger operator.

I mean, I'm sure there are still a handful of mom and pop operators that, that operate old school wise, but yeah, the perception is that this is very dangerous work, which is dangerous, but it has largely become automated and- Yeah. Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. Someone was just talking to me about landmen and about all the tragic deaths and injuries that, that have been on the rigs.

Ryan Kellogg: I'm sure. Yeah, there's, yeah, those, those, uh, HSC statistics have to be horrible for whatever this fictitious company is. 

Anita Kellogg: So there was also a lot of good wine we went to winery in Chile and of course Argentina has Malibu and some good steak and so that was nice [00:09:00] too. So yeah, so that was a really good experience and I think

But it's long. 14 days in a row is really exhausting. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, that's tough. That's real tough. It's a lot of travel. It's 

Anita Kellogg: all exhausted. Everyone misses their families, so, but it was good. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. No, I'm glad it was a success. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. All right. So onto our first story, of course, the war with Iran is still going on.

Right now, uh, so there's been some negotiations in Pakistan, but right now they're completely stalled. Uh, there was supposed to be talks in Pakistan last weekend, which Trump called off. Trump has rejected numerous Iranian proposals. I think there have been three this week and, but the details of those proposals aren't known.

So as part of this interestingly, it's a seas fire called a seas fire, but a blockade is not, is technically an act of war, so- mm-hmm. [00:10:00] So the Australia Hermus is still closed on both sides, US blockade and, uh, Iran closing it, and there's no immediate signs of reopening, which of course is having this huge impact on the flow of oil and gas to many parts of the world, as well as some other goods.

 Trump has suggested, I think it was just the article I was reading, it was maybe just yesterday, the military strikes might resume and Iran has also echoed the sentiment. But thinking about it, there are a lot of reasons why Trump might be reluctant to do so, including we've already used so much of our stockpile of critical weapons that we would need in a conflict, and of course, the impact on the economy, which he's very sensitive to.

You know, one thing that I found interesting, uh, in prepping for this, was this article by Tom Pickering and a couple co-authors and foreign affairs, and [00:11:00] it suggested if there's going to be an end to this, the US would have to make certain concessions, which reading it is hard for me to, to see.

One important one is accepting that Iran has a fundamental right as a sovereign state to enrich uranium for civilian peaceful purposes, and this is guaranteed under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. But in return, Iran would have to agree to new limits and severe oversight of its nuclear programs so Washington can be sure it'll never build a nuclear weapon.

And then this was also interesting. I thought the US will also need to help Iran reconstruct by letting states along the Persian Gulf, including Iran, impose surge charges for certain oil related goods that apart from Por-ports in the Persian Gulf and travel through the Strait of Hermus. But on the other hand, Iran has to accept that it can't just extract funds for any ship, uh, that's going through the [00:12:00] strait because that contravenes international law.

So those were the two big ones he talked about. It would require a good deal of compromise on the US side and see more compromise in Iran. So how realistic do you think any of that is? 

Ryan Kellogg: Well, I mean, one thing that, that jumped out was, and I, I don't remember the the details of the deal, the nuclear deal that, uh, the Obama administration negotiated, but did they allow the enrichment of uranium for civilian peaceful purposes, or is this something above and beyond what was allowed to- 

Anita Kellogg: No, I think that was probably still allowed.

Ryan Kellogg: Okay. 

Anita Kellogg: For low levels of enrichment. So- You can 

Ryan Kellogg: share like for commercial plans, yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: The article in the New York Times, which we'll have a link to, you know, the highly riched Iranium happened, like 90% of it, of their current stockpile happened after the- the 

Ryan Kellogg: deal. Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah, after Trump pulled out of the deal.

Yeah. But low levels of enrichment, you used more for [00:13:00] civilians. 

Ryan Kellogg: Right. And that was permitted under the, uh, the previous tree. I think it was. 

Anita Kellogg: I think it was, but I don't know for sure. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. So this is, I mean, it sounds like a you're basically, which the politics of and we, I think we talked about last time of the, the potential likelihood of going back to a deal structure very similar to what Trump backed out of, but again, him being able to frame it like this is a big victory or something.

Yeah. I think also interesting is this idea of the surcharge- 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. ... 

Ryan Kellogg: around petroleum related goods. So would this have a cap on it, like to, because this is designed to help rebuild- 

Anita Kellogg: mm-hmm. ... 

Ryan Kellogg: the damage done to infrastructure within Iran. I mean, would this be like in perpetuity or have a cap on it? 

Anita Kellogg: He didn't go into that, they didn't go into that much detail.

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. I mean, that's, that's a [00:14:00] loss obviously immediately, uh, where you're worse off compared to, well, one, where you were before the war and then two after the, uh, uh, or compared to the, um, the, uh, the Obama deal that was negotiated. So- 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah, any sort of fee- 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. ... of any 

Anita Kellogg: good. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. It's definitely 

Anita Kellogg: a loss.

Ryan Kellogg: So it's sort of like a compromise between what Iran's currently doing where it's just abstracting for like every, every single ship, uh, and just focusing on oil related goods. Uh, this seems, it seems reasonable. How much talk was there around the current stockpile of highly enriched uranium? 

Anita Kellogg: So, uh, I can't remember what article it was in, but experts, and I don't know how they're estimating, think that there's still enough left for like 100 nukes.

Ryan Kellogg: That, well, yeah, I mean, I think there's- Which is 

Anita Kellogg: more than Israel's arsenal. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, like 800 pounds [00:15:00] of highly enriched uranium. 

Anita Kellogg: Something like that. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: I don't remember the detailed number, but- 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: So, but I don't know, I mean, how they ... I think it's a guesstimate, really. Yeah, 

Ryan Kellogg: yeah, yeah. 'Cause we really have 

Anita Kellogg: no idea how 

Ryan Kellogg: much- For, for sure, and then where it is, and how accessible it is, and, and all those sort of, all those sort of details.

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. 

Ryan Kellogg: But presumably, I mean, part of this is also being open to full international inspections and- Yeah. Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: So I don't know how realistic, though, I think it is. 

Ryan Kellogg: In terms of the Trump administration agreeing to these terms, I mean, it's, it's hard to know without kind of these other, like the highly enriched uranium status- Yeah.

as part of the, um, part of it. And then any mention of, of sanctions, sanction relief? 

Anita Kellogg: No, no. 

Ryan Kellogg: So that still stays in, in place. 

Anita Kellogg: Well, I [00:16:00] would imagine though, if we're talking about it realistically, that there'd have to be some sanction relief. 

Ryan Kellogg: Right, yeah, yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: Um, it would be a pretty big deal, like you s- like we said for the US to allow this surcharge, I think even more than the, uh, peaceful, low level en- enrichment.

But I think maybe they could do that if they were allowed to take some of the enriched uranium out of the country- 

Ryan Kellogg: mm-hmm. ... 

Anita Kellogg: which is not gonna be an easy feat to transport, but perhaps if that's part of the deal. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Yep. 

Anita Kellogg: I know that's something Trump has asked for, so it just feels pretty entranced right now this impasse and it's, it's just not clear what will actually break it.

But, I mean, I think Trump definitely feels the pressure to come up with a deal for sure because of [00:17:00] the economic impacts. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I think there's, there's definitely that, um, I'm not sure he's pressured to be in a deal where it, it would be an obvious loss, like something that he can't, he can't frame.

Yeah. 'Cause I'm not sure how much he cares politically about the Republican Party in general. It could be just this belief that the midterms are already lost, so who cares about the- 

Anita Kellogg: Well, I 

Ryan Kellogg: don't think- ... Short term 

Anita Kellogg: economic impact. Be districting if they thought the midterms were already lost? 

Ryan Kellogg: Y- yeah, you're referring to the Supreme Court rule.

I think that, I mean, l- likely only Louisiana will be able to, to swing. So- 

Anita Kellogg: Tennessee is trying. 

Ryan Kellogg: It, it's gonna be a handful of seats. And if you're talking about a 40 seat swing comparable to, to 2018 or 1994, it doesn't matter what a handful of seats will swing. Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: [00:18:00] Yeah. So I don't know, that, that really suggests the surcharge is gonna be a really hard thing to, to include.

 But just going to the impact on the economy and energy markets, prices have jumped well over a hundred dollar threshold for a barrel of oil. Uh, I think the last price for Brent, which is the US standard was almost a 114. And kind of almost more importantly, the future's price for oil is about 50% higher than it was before the war.

Though the economist argues this is way too low and seems to be operating under the assumption that America and Iran will, will soon strike a peace deal, that their agreement will reopen Hermes and that soon after the straight is clear, petroleum and jet fuel will once again be plentiful. But they also point out when the straight reopens, it won't be turning on the oil taps [00:19:00] immediately.

It has to be demined, which will take significant time. Insurance rates could be prohibitive, so governments may need to organize a scheme to cover extreme risk. And then things that you've pointed out to me, shutting down production may have damaged oil wells, restoring, you know, also take time, returning that output, restarting those refineries won't immediately return to full capacity.

Ryan Kellogg: Mm-hmm. Yeah. No, I mean, for, for sure, there's a, um, there's just a, a physical limit that the, uh, that the system is, is running up against and kind of the economist whole take is that the market's far too optimistic around incorporating kind of the, the, the physical limits and, and these sort of- mm-hmm.

time issues associated with it. And, and, and obviously take a very optimistic stance on how quickly things can get resolved- mm-hmm. ... and, and the straight reopened. [00:20:00] Um, I think it's particularly acute, you know, in places like Southeast Asia- mm-hmm. ... um, where diesel prices and things like that. I mean, I think that the article mentioned that diesel was, was trading already at like $600 a barrel.

That's crazy. And we can, we can see, like, diesel prices here too. And there's been that separation since the Ukraine conflict where before, like, gasoline and diesel were fairly comparable in, in price. I mean, there's always a premium on diesel, but now it's, you'll notice the $4 or so per gallon for, for unleaded, but diesel will be five, 550, California, $8 a gallon- Yeah.

things along those lines. But that being said, the US still is, uh, relatively sheltered compared to the rest of the world because of its own domestic production and refining capacity. Not saying that it doesn't touch it, but compared to the, the extremes that, like, Europe and, and definitely Asia and, and [00:21:00] Southeast Asia in particular are seen, um, it's a big, big blow to the, uh, to the global economy that probably stock markets haven't fully, uh, compensated for as well.

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. And then there's, you know, something that does impact Americans to a certain extent. You're running out of jet fuel, a lot of other places around the world. So, I mean, tons of flights are being canceled. Thousands, tens of thousands of flights 

Ryan Kellogg: that are alred led to the bankruptcy of Spirit Airlines.

Yeah. I mean, that was directly, because these, these companies, uh, if they're not hedged properly, I mean, jet fuel is their number one expense. So having a shock to the system for a company with thin margins like a discount airline- mm-hmm. ... like spirit, um this, this whole event, you know, put them, tipped them over where they, uh, they weren't even able to do chapter 11.

They're doing full chapter seven liquidation of their assets. So people are literally, like, stranded- 

Anita Kellogg: mm-hmm. ... 

Ryan Kellogg: uh, midway [00:22:00] through a journey and basically were told no, yeah, all the employees were told go home. There's literally nobody working there anymore. Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: So it's- You have to buy a ticket. You 

Ryan Kellogg: have to buy a ticket last minute, which is extraordinarily expensive.

Yeah. Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: So that's definitely has an impact and on summer travel in general. 

Ryan Kellogg: Mm-hmm. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. But I think it's ... But I think, you know, there's a lot of indirect things that the US doesn't think about. Like, so I was reading about fertilizer there, the economist talked about- mm-hmm. ... how much of fertilizer goes through the straight Hermes, so that brings up food prices.

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it could well be a, uh, I mean, an inflationary shock- mm-hmm. ... s- similar to what we saw in Ukraine. There's definitely a lot of pressure. Yeah. I think upward pressure on- Yeah. ... on inflation going forward. 

Anita Kellogg: I think similar to, to [00:23:00] Ukraine, I think we'll see. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: So what do you make of the opt- market optimism?

Ryan Kellogg: You know, I, no- nobody really knows. I mean, it's not just, like, the commodity markets. It's just, like, every market is extraordinarily optimistic. I mean, the equity markets are back up, uh, above record highs despite this huge disruption. And that's true both for the US market and international markets where, which have in theory been more heavily impacted by this shock.

 It's not really clear kinda what the, what the drivers are that, are, are for that other than, you know, there's, it's, it's very much kind of a K-shaped economy. I mean, the people that are doing well- mm-hmm. ... have a huge amount of capital to deploy- 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah, I've heard that so many times, listening 

Ryan Kellogg: to the 

Anita Kellogg: podcast.

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Yeah, that's the hot, that's the hot, [00:24:00] uh, framework for, for our e- economic reality now is the, uh, the K-shaped ... I've heard a E-shaped one as well. 

Anita Kellogg: I've served it. 

Ryan Kellogg: So you have a little middle run. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. So, yeah, I guess spending at the top could keep things going to some extent, but it's obviously the inflation hurts people at the lower end the most.

Ryan Kellogg: Oh, for sure. Yeah, no, these are, these are rough times for the majority because when we're doing K-shape, we're talking maybe the top 20, 30%- Yeah. ... of the population. Uh, the rest, yeah, I mean, bad, bad job market significant inflation, you know, particularly on, on food and energy. So, so yeah, very, very sour mood.

I think consumer sentiment within the US is at its lowest point since they started recording it. Um, so it's really, [00:25:00] uh, people are very, very pessimistic about, about the economy overall. 

Anita Kellogg: So interesting, this discrepancy between the general population's attitudes and the market attitude. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Yeah. It's, it's a mystery.

I mean, the, it, the market is always a lagging indicator. 

Anita Kellogg: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Kellogg: Um, so it'll be the last thing to collapse, but it is, I think the unique thing is, is this bifurcation- 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. ... 

Ryan Kellogg: within the consumer base. People that are doing well are doing very well and, you know, increases in food or gasoline doesn't really matter to them much so that spending, that, and essentially that spending, at least for the US economy, I mean, that, that props up 80% of it.

 The other percentage is coming from huge capital investments in data centers and AI. Yeah. So that's other thing propping up the market. 

Anita Kellogg: But a lot of vulnerabilities there that are worse than that. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, a lot of vulnerability. And I think that's what, what the economist is, is pointing [00:26:00] at is, yeah, you can think this, but then there's a physical reality- mm-hmm.

to the fuel sources that we rely on to run the global economy. And when those barrels and physical things don't show up anymore at a certain point there'll be, there'll be a shock to the system. So, so we'll see. We'll see. 

Anita Kellogg: So you love polymarket, and on the notes, you included what they think is, uh, a chance for a permanent piece- mm-hmm.

by the end of this month. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yep. Yeah. So that is, was currently trading as of yesterday at a 38% chance. So I think the question is, would you take that, would you take that bet? I don't know if I 

Anita Kellogg: wanna stick to your question. 

Ryan Kellogg: I don't know how to define permanent peace, because we need to click on click on how, how the bet is settled.

Anita Kellogg: What do you think of these odds? [00:27:00] If, if the definition is sort of- 

Ryan Kellogg: Well, yeah, let's ... Yeah, I wanna figure out ... Okay, permanent peace deal, and then rules. The market will resolve to yes if Iran and the United States agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified day ... Okay. Permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease or use as equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the two nations.

Agreements that are explicitly temporary, which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis, e.g., A temporary extension of a two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7th. 

Anita Kellogg: It's confirming what I'm saying, right? 

Ryan Kellogg: Will not qualify. 

Anita Kellogg: Okay.

Right. It wants to make clear that cease fires don't count. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: But a long-term piece 

Ryan Kellogg: to it. Okay. Qualifying [00:28:00] agreement will be considered to have been established if either the following conditions are met. The US and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement, e.g. A treaty or multi-point agreement which meets the above criteria.

And then both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that qualifying agreement has to be definitively established, negotiation, statements of progress or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.

Anita Kellogg: I think it's pretty clear. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, a written agreement ... So, okay, so this is beyond a framework. You can't just have, like, a framework. It has to be ... 

Anita Kellogg: Slides. 

Ryan Kellogg: We agreed to it, and then they have to come out and say that we've stopped, that we've agreed to this. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. 

Ryan Kellogg: No, I wouldn't take that back.

I'd maybe take, like, some sort of [00:29:00] BS framework and a cessation of military hostilities with the unde- Yeah, I mean, I think- ... Undefined timeline. 

Anita Kellogg: Well, I mean, I think the end of a blockade would be that. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Uh, that's not part of that. I think- And this is just military, But that's the last sort of military activity that's going on.

Oh, I see what you're saying. Yeah, yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: So you'd have to end the bucket. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. All right. Well, I wouldn't take it every so. 

Anita Kellogg: 40 seems low, but I'm not doing even theoretical bets anymore. 

Ryan Kellogg: So you take it. 

Anita Kellogg: No. 

Ryan Kellogg: Oh, okay. 

Anita Kellogg: I'm not doing anything theoretically. 

Ryan Kellogg: You're not doing anything theory. Well, what fun is that?

Anita Kellogg: 'Cause I always lose.

Ryan Kellogg: We're not putting real money, so it's no, uh- 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah, see- 

Ryan Kellogg: It's just for bragging rights. 

Anita Kellogg: I'd be tempted to, because that's still a whole month. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. It's a long [00:30:00] Long, long month. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. All right. 

Ryan Kellogg: All right. So we'll revisit a month from now and see whether or not you're- 

Anita Kellogg: It's see why I'm wrong. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, exactly. 

Anita Kellogg: But I'm still thinking.

Just don't listen to me. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: Don't place any real money bets. Actually, you probably shouldn't base, put a real money bet on the war anyway, just ethically. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. All of this stuff is unbelievable degeneracy. There's like seven million dollars worth of bets on this too. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. Of course. There's worse bets on there.

Ryan Kellogg: That's true. 

Anita Kellogg: So one thing that's, was really surprising that happened, we were talking about it on our trip, uh, with, uh, Victor Orban Prime Minister of Hungary losing the election on April 12th. And this is so shocking because people, he had done so much to rig the system to keep him in power. So he'd been in power for 16 years [00:31:00] and, you know, the freedom of the press was curtailed, just the freedom of elections were curtailed you know things against his opposition.

But you had indicated to me a while ago that there was hope for this victory. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Yeah. And I think the, um, the European press did, did a good job of, of highlighting kind of those are ... And we probably talked about it maybe a year ago. But yeah, Peter Magyar, which is a pretty interesting name, the way that I've heard it described would be like if somebody who won the presidency was named Johnny American.

Anita Kellogg: Okay. 

Ryan Kellogg: So, because Magyar is literally like Hungarian, like in- Okay. ... in Hungarian. So again, j- just like, we're, we're like a Captain America or something we're, we're to run. So you just automatically kinda have this, this framing good branding for his, his last name. But, but yeah, no, it was, it was really [00:32:00] extraordinary.

I think the, the size of the victory too, and like you said, the, um, the fact that they overcame all of these institutional barriers that had been put in place by Orban and his Fidez party since they won their first election- mm-hmm. ... in 2010 and made all those changes to the Constitution, took over you know, large segments of the media so that most media, you know, coming out is, is state owned propaganda.

 And then all of the, the things like the US is dealing with around gerrymandering and- mm-hmm. ... um, uh, funding for political parties and the, uh, how much you allow, like, uh, political opposition to participate- mm-hmm. ... within, within the system, the judiciary, all, all of those sort of things are like stacked against any sort of opposition party.

But what you had was just this movement, which was really driven not by so much [00:33:00] this idea of liberalism- 

Anita Kellogg: mm-hmm. ... 

Ryan Kellogg: but economic concerns. Right. So these are pure pocketbook concerns and corruption. Mm-hmm. So those two things, which actually led to Orban and the Fidez Party gaining power back in 2010, these were also the things that ultimately led them to being unseated.

So I think Magyard, to his credit, ran a very focused campaign on those two issues. He really wasn't even though the propaganda and kind of the Fidez Party was really hammering him on culture war issues- mm-hmm. ... around LGBT. And then I think the other area where they really tried to divide the populace was around Ukraine.

So Orbin has, has served a spoiler role- mm-hmm. ... within the EU and has blocked, you know, over $100 billion worth of EU [00:34:00] funds just because the way the EU Parliament works basically requires a 100% consensus. So any single nation can block you know, funding measures and things around like Russian sanctions and, and, and, and like that.

So Zelenskyy you know, was put up as a villain. The there were a lot of skier tactics, you know, in terms of the, uh, the, the campaign ads showing that, oh, your Hungarian sons will be sent off to war as soon as this, this party takes over and we can't afford that. But, you know, none of, none of these skier tactics really worked.

And it was just like this overwhelming turnout, 77% turnout, which was the highest for any Hungarian election since the collapse of communism in 1989, and the opposition party so Tiza, uh, ended up winning a two-thirds majority, which essentially is enough for them to completely reshape the Constitution [00:35:00] and, in theory, root out a lot of the reforms that were put in place by the Fadez Party to lock in power.

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. And one of the things that I thought was interesting that I heard this morning the little tidbit I caught from to carry a GPS is that, uh, because it's a parliamentary system that these changes can proceed almost immediately. Yeah. I thought, I mean, because in the US, like, there's election and then you have 30 months- Yeah.

and stuff like that. Yeah. And, and how this can proceed. Uh, like you said, the president has to sign off and I don't know exactly what the role of the president is in Hungary, but it certainly seems that we'll see changes very quickly. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, that, that's certainly the, the goal that, that Magyar has had.

Uh, he definitely came out very aggressively. I think right after the election, he was on essentially the [00:36:00] equivalent to Fox News or Newsmax with a pretty rattled newscaster. Again, they're, they're propagandists, so they've been used to sucking up to the, uh, the orbit regime and basically saying to their face, you know, "I'm firing you.

We're disassembling this. You know, we're gonna allow, like, opposition press going forward." So I think the, the expectation and certainly to, to, in order to get the hundred billion dollars of frozen e- or sorry, the 20 billion dollars of frozen EU funds Hungary has to, to show, you know, certain reforms, uh, around its political systems.

I think there's, there's, there's economic incentive in addition to you know, just having to show results- mm-hmm. ... because Hungary has fallen significantly behind its European peers like Bulgaria, Romania and [00:37:00] Poland in terms of economic growth. Uh, I think their average GDP per capita is like around 20,000 versus the EU average around 37,000.

And then growth in general was flat last year which was, was particularly bad. So this is really about, you know, they have to show immediate progress. And, and definitely one of the things is getting this $20 billion, which is equivalent to like 10% of their GDP- mm-hmm. ... that immediately adds like a percent growth to the economy.

Anita Kellogg: So the comparison with the average in the EU didn't mean as much to me because I know that some of these countries that entered from Eastern Europe have stayed persistently much lower, but you know, that you're rating it against Bulgaria and Romania- 

Ryan Kellogg: mm-hmm. Yeah. ... 

Anita Kellogg: uh, you're falling behind them is pretty striking.

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. And it's, it's real funny kind of how this was, was framed and we'll get into kind of the, the implications in Europe and the greater like far right movement, [00:38:00] but it was being framed not as a failure of orbanism- mm-hmm. ... into these pathetic economic growth rates, but rather as the EU punishing.

So Brussels- Oh, yes. ... purposely punishing the Hungarians and because they're afraid of orbit and his masculine defense of- Right. ... Christian, Western Christian values. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. Well, I guess being fined would hurt you compared to your peers in that way. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: Or having some money withheld. 

Ryan Kellogg: But, but in reality, it was also this, this enormous corruption.

 So it was, it was sort of the typical things which we would not be at all familiar with in this country where, you know, significant amount of cronyism, a lot of backdoor dealing, insider trading I think one of the most distinct examples that was used kind of in the, uh, the campaign by, uh, by the opposition was [00:39:00] supposedly, um, Orban has this country estate that, you know, essentially kind of like a Colombian drug lord is like filled with exotic animals.

It's 

Anita Kellogg: crazy. I saw that in your notes. I was like, "What?" 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, yeah. So it was sort of that contrast, this very Versailles sort of thing while you had hospitals go without toilet paper and just schools like falling apart. Yeah. So people were able to physically ... I mean, that's the thing, it's like you can have all this propaganda.

People could be inundated with it. People can be also afraid to voice any opposition because, uh, you know, a large part of the economy was, was public sector. There were a lot of state owned companies as well, like the energy company is state owned. So you're afraid to, to voice any sort of opposition against the administration.

 But at the end of the day, yeah, you're seeing it, food is less affordable. And obviously the thing with Iran, all the increased energy prices, and before [00:40:00] that, Ukraine, this all kind of wore down the, the, the effect of, of propaganda. Yeah. You know, they can frame it all this, they can frame it on, oh, we're keeping all of these illegal immigrants out while, you know, the rest of Europe goes to hell with all its crime.

 But yeah, if you can't feed your family and you're struggling- 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. ... 

Ryan Kellogg: it doesn't matter. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. Sure. 

Ryan Kellogg: And that, that's kind of what this, this election showed. I think the, the other thing it showed and, and the way that the, um, the right and Europe and the US are, are also framing it is that, well, Orbin did what he said to accomplish.

He's destroyed the leftist the Hungarian left completely. And it's true. The Hungarian left did not have seats in this parliament. That's it, but that's because they made a strategic decision to unify behind Magyar's party, which is a center right party- mm-hmm. ... but again, embraces liberal democratic values.

Right. So it's a normal [00:41:00] center right party, similar to what, uh, Donald Tusk and, and Poland got elected a couple years ago. 

Anita Kellogg: Which in the longer run gives them a chance to win seats, right? 'Cause if you- Exactly. Yeah. ... you reverse these rules that, that discriminated against the opposition, then in the long term, you have a chance to play by a liberalized democracy rules and more fair elections.

Ryan Kellogg: Yep. Yeah. But it was a, it was a strategic decision, which, um, which obviously paid off- Yeah. ... um to, to, to sacrifice because again, the, the thing with the parliamentary system, you might have 10 different little parties- Yeah. ... with their own little issues. And oftentimes that's how, I mean that, that's how fascism rose in the 1930s in the first place is kind of these divisions amongst traditional liberal democratic parties on the, the left and right but they had oppo- a unified opposition in this case.

Anita Kellogg: [00:42:00] Which would probably be important and, and it makes me think of France in that one election- 

Ryan Kellogg: mm-hmm. ... 

Anita Kellogg: right? Where the parties join forces, uh- 

Ryan Kellogg: Against national, national rally, yeah. Mm-hmm. Yep. 

Anita Kellogg: So that seems definitely important going forward, which is very hard for parties to do because someone has to sacrifice something.

But in this case, to me, it's so clear that the long run gain from that, you know, was a good reason to, to stand down in this election, support the Senate right candidate. It'll be interesting to see how much the parties in Europe can really band against the far right encroachment in upcoming elections.

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Yeah. And I think that, that is a, a big question and kind of what lessens the, the European right takes away from it. I think one of the, the things that, that's come out both from this and [00:43:00] f- the, the, in the background, kind of the, uh, the effects of the Iran war and Trump's following popularity both within the US and Europe has caused a number of these far right leaders to kind of rethink their strategies heading into these bigger elections or if they're in power, like, um, I mean, we saw with, uh, with Maloney and Italy she appears to be edging away from Trump both in around kind of support for the war and also in a recent spat with the Pope- Right.

which, uh, which Vance and, and Trump got into. And we're expecting Maloney to kind of, like, back them as kind of like ideological allies, but in fact, like, back the Pope. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. Probably important to constituents. 

Ryan Kellogg: I would think so. I would think so. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. Essentially, Van's argument came to be like, "You don't know Christianity.

We know what Chri- Christianity is. " It's seriously? [00:44:00] 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Yeah, it was, it was pretty bold for a, um ... Although, you know what, there were a lot of arguments out there and, um, I don't know for an American Catholic, that's not unheard of to be a little bit like a cafeteria Catholic. And there were a lot of arguments are like, "Oh, you're Catholic and being you know, central part of the faith is, " which, you know, it is that the Pope represents Christ or, um, Christ emissary on earth and that it is leadership role, but- A fundamental- I think American Catholics are a little bit more- 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah.

Ryan Kellogg: evangelical. 

Anita Kellogg: If you talk about, like, more ... Yeah, but more to the right, more the fundamentalist Catholic is the sort of Catholic that should be most inherent to the rules that the Pope speaks for God and the church follows that. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: You normally see that from- Unless, unless he's 

Ryan Kellogg: a liptard, in which case you can ignore him.

And that's the cafeteria Catholicprist. 

Anita Kellogg: Right. It's more the liberal side, right? Yeah. Who, who may use birth control and doesn't agree with [00:45:00] all those. But the conservatives Catholics were at their heyday under Benedict, the successor to pope on the second who was very, very conservative, but they are having trouble dealing with these more, slightly more liberal Popes.

Ryan Kellogg: Right. Yeah. Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: Anyway. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. So that's interesting content. Uh, elsewhere in Europe, so Faraj and the UK I think was, had a really amusing quote from the financial times. Now, keep in mind Nigel Faraj, very close to Trump very close ally, makes regular visits to, uh, to Mar-a-Lago, actively campaigned with him in 2024 was recently quoted by the Financial Times to say Yeah, I happen to know him, but that's by the by."

 I, I barely know this guy. I don't even know it. " 

Anita Kellogg: I think the war has a big, has a big effect on these leaders trying to, try to walk away from their closeness with [00:46:00] Trump because the war, if we think that war is unpopular in the US, it's, these wars are always extraordinarily unpopular in Europe, and I think they need to play to that base somewhat.

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, I think at a, at a, yeah, just because it is un- unpopular because, I mean, the economic impact- Yeah. ... on it is, is at least twice as much as, as what you see in the US. 

Anita Kellogg: And they don't believe in it, and they're very annoyed that the US starts these wars that they get dragged into or have the effects of.

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Yep. 

Anita Kellogg: I mean, in general, they're very anti-US wars. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, because it, I mean, it also, a- a- and there were, others have made the point that the right would naturally value highly the the sovereignty- mm-hmm. ... of their own and the independence of their own nations. So the whole construct of this [00:47:00] US-led MAGA movement war furthering kind of the far right runs up against the idea that, well, these far right parties don't want to be a vassal state of the US- mm-hmm.

um, even if it is a US under, under a Trump. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. 

Ryan Kellogg: So certain institutional limits. So they've definitely are, I think, adapting to it. I think the, what's different compared to Magyar and kind of what we saw in Hungary is that the upcoming elections in France, Germany, and, and much later in the UK is that the far right will be the insurgents- Yeah.

running against what are widely perceived as very ineffective governments, particularly like France and the UK, which have deeply, deeply underwater polling for their current leaders. So it's, it's, it's really, can they, can the opposition parties kind of find [00:48:00] their footing and really address these issues around insecurity, which I thought was, was well framed by a professor in New York Times article, uh, Sherry Berman out of Bernard.

 And it's, it's not so much like the unemployment where they, because, you know, there's things on the surface for the middle class and, you know, the kind of the core supporters if we look at, like, Trump support. These aren't necessarily people that are, like, bad off economically- mm-hmm. ... at all.

But it is this, this idea of insecurity, so fear of job loss, uncertainty about the future, concerned about economic shock, obviously all the ... And then it's always framed as, like, cultural, um- Right. ... issues where potential cultural losses or losses of power in some form or another. So it's not actual material like unemployment or because [00:49:00] equity markets, housing markets are all at their peaks in a lot of ways, both in Europe and, and the United States.

So it's more just this, this feeling of insecurity and, and how you address it in a world that's, you know, rapidly changing one from more conflict, you know, particularly within Europe, but then, you know, things disrupt the technologies like AI. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. So I mean, every incumbent government is under a lot of pressure, I think, and it's hard to stay in power, and the scary thing, I think, is that the main opposition in Europe are these far right parties, right?

Because, yeah, it's hard. It wouldn't be surprising to see any, like, government in, in Europe fall, but normally you want them to fall to a more still liberal democracy group that's not anti-immigrant [00:50:00] and anti-gay and all those sort of things that, that the far right is known for. 

Ryan Kellogg: Y- yeah.

Yeah. I mean, you, you have seen gains within, you know, certain, like, the Greens and, and parties like that, but yeah, not to the extent ... So unless they, they do something like what Frank did in the last election, where you have kind of these strate- strategic decisions to drop out of certain races and, and consolidate behind an opposition candidate, like in a parliamentary, um, race, then, then yeah, it seems there, there is this feeling that in, in each of these countries that it's inevitable because of how poorly the current governments are coping with these, these situations around- Which, 

Anita Kellogg: I mean, there's, there's just a certain extent that they don't have control over all of these

Ryan Kellogg: No, it's, it, it goes back to that, I mean, when we were talking about, like, the, the, the, the before Biden dropped that, I mean, it's like this hot potato thing- Yeah. ... [00:51:00] where if you're, you're stuck with, again, presidents don't have control over inflation and half of these economic matters. Well, 

Anita Kellogg: you can make inflation at worse.

Ryan Kellogg: You can- By putting out the chairs. Yes. We learned that. We learned that apparently you can, you do have power to make things much worse. 

Anita Kellogg: And start wars, that also makes things worse. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. But in general, making things better- Yeah. ... the president seems to have limited power to do that. But yes, they, they can make it much worse.

Anita Kellogg: I guess that's one way to look at it, for sure. Do you think it has any impact on the US where there was a lot of people who admired Orban and certainly Vance went out there shortly before the election. CPAC has taken place in Hungary before. What do you think? 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, I think, I think that's one of the more interesting things.

And again, this is amongst the, I guess the intelligence here or the elite of the, the right wing where Orban was [00:52:00] very much held up as kind of the central inspiration for think tanks like the Heritage Foundation, and there's no doubt. I mean, Project 2025 was based on the Hungarian model of taking over the institutions, the core institutions of the country, so media, academia, and judicial system.

And that's, that's basically kind of what's laid out in Project 2025. It was seen as Defender of Family Values, Western Civilization, and yeah, like you said, with CPAC, you know, they've regularly hosted that, which I think has come to a sudden end, um, but since 2022, they would travel out to Hungary. You had, uh, Tucker Carlson before his recent falling out would travel out there and, and Orbin was always held up as the intellectual godfather of the modern, populist, illiberal, far right movement throughout the world.

So yeah, it's a significant boat, so also a significant loss of funding because they [00:53:00] funded they had their own series of think tanks. They of course famously got rid of, I think it was called Central European University, which was the one backed by, who's the boogeyman, the Hungarian boogeyman billionaire who's

Oh, George Soros. George Soros. 

Anita Kellogg: He's Hungarian? 

Ryan Kellogg: Yes, yeah. So George Soros was- So my ignorance here. Um George Sores had, had famously backed, you know, after the into communism had backed up, you know, basically, uh, what was framed as an American, you know, traditional- Right. ... uh, Democratic liberal university.

That, that was destroyed kind of run out of town under Orban and they set up kind of parallel institutions, but all pushing kind of the, the the model of, of family values and defending Western civilization and pushing back against the LGBT Marxist agenda, et cetera, et cetera. So yeah, it's a [00:54:00] huge, it could be a huge loss of, of funding.

 Yeah, there were a number of, like, scholars. Again, this is, this is the ecosystem and environment that Sebastian Gorka grew out. Right. So again, all of these, all of these guys are kind of like feeding onto this. Where, where does that go without this, this loss of funding? So definitely a, a blow there, a symbolic blow but at the same time does it, is it a crippling blow?

I, I don't, I don't think so. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah, I wouldn't say that. Yeah. But it is interesting the impact it might have on the, um, I don't know, basic found- I wanna say intellectual foundations, but there's nothing intellectual about it. 

Ryan Kellogg: How dare you 

Anita Kellogg: Oh, there's not, there used to be some intellectuals in the Heritage Foundation, and then they all said, "No, we're not, we are true Republicans and this is not true Republicanism."

But, so now [00:55:00] they're left without that. But I guess people who are founding the, the core defining the core values of the movement. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Yeah. Yep. So, yeah, I, I don't know where they're going to travel when they go on their European holidays. Yeah. Uh, I guess they, they really need, they really need La Pen or, uh, Farage to come through so they have a safe space to go.

Anita Kellogg: They do. Yeah. 'Cause they lost Poland too. 

Ryan Kellogg: Lost Poland, yep. 

Anita Kellogg: So yeah. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, I can't remember. I think they may be like Silvakia is maybe the one. There's still one country- 

Anita Kellogg: I think the beaches are pretty there. 

Ryan Kellogg: What's that? 

Anita Kellogg: Heard the beaches are pretty there. 

Ryan Kellogg: Well, there you go. There you go.

Anita Kellogg: So for our last topic, we turned back to Venezuela and basically the situation is [00:56:00] pretty stable there, I would say, and there's talk of how much investment will actually go into the, to the country. The economist reports that investor sentiment's been very bullish but we haven't seen some actual deals.

So what do you make of this current situation? The US seems pretty happy with it, investors seem pretty happy with it. Remember, this is, did not overturn Maduro's government. Instead, the government went to his vice president, and this was seen as perpetuating stability in Venezuela instead of having a more democratic candidate in place or having elections.

So do you agree that this is, was this the right move for the United States? 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, I mean, I think it's, it's early to say, but I think just the framing of it [00:57:00] and, and ma- magazine like The Economist- mm-hmm. ... I think stood out to me that this was, and maybe it's just in, um, contrast to what's going on in Iran.

Mm-hmm. Uh, but yeah, it looks, it looks like a, a success in the sense that you're able to, like, surgically remove, you know, a brutal dictator. Uh, you're able to put in, you know, essentially a, a technocrat that was as VP Delci Rodriguez and at least on, again, the focus has been on reform around the oil and gas industry and creating access points for US oil and gas companies.

So in that sense, you, you've seen, uh, Venezuela has pretty rapidly adopted laws liberalizing investment and supposedly there are 20 different deal offers that have been submitted around specific assets. So the, at least the initial [00:58:00] feelers for additional investment within the country appear to be moving forward.

That being said, you know, part of the agreement that, you know, some observers were surprised by that Venezuela got this is that the state owned oil company, the PVDSA has to be involved with any of these, which is not really favorable to, to, you know, that creates risk or, uh, for, for US investors. I think the other things that have delayed actual big investment commitments in this space is around like royalty reforms, which haven't been forthcoming.

 It's also a very la- l- uh, laborious process to get funds actually to the Venezuelan government, because everything goes through the US Treasury. Mm-hmm. That is the one thing, and this will come up in the Cubic conversation as well. But the US effectively has full physical control of Venezuela's oil [00:59:00] exports.

So it controls the funds, it determines, you know, how much goes back to the Venezuelan government and, uh, getting approval for, like, this process is, is difficult. So that, and that creates uncertainties as well, despite, you know, carve outs being for- That's crazy. 

Anita Kellogg: That we control all the money from their oil exports?

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it is, it is, like, full effective control. I mean, that, that, that was kind of the condition for allowing increased exports and removal of sanctions. So they're getting ... Yeah, I mean, are we siphoning off like more? I don't know, but it's more than they were getting than under, like, a sanctioned regime.

But the supposedly the way it's being advertised is, hey, they're realizing market rates now and they weren't in their shadow fleet before, so it's like more fear. But yes, the US has control on it, and obviously that comes up in, in situations like Cuba, because it has control over those [01:00:00] physical Assets.

And then there's just lingering concerns about the rule of law. Right. Because obviously things are very fluid and, and nobody wants to make the estimated $183 billion- Right. ... of investment that it would take to go from one million barrels a day to three million barrels a day. Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: No, I, I definitely imagine the enforcement of the rule in law rule of law is, is a concern.

And I think the other concern would just be, could they nationalize 20 years from now? Could they have a different government that would nationalize these assets again? 

Ryan Kellogg: Oh, yeah. Yeah. No, that's, that's definitely the, the reluctance, um, because obviously the oil companies have been burned before. Venezuela was servicing its, uh, what it owed, you know, from those seizures, you know, very small amounts.

But the oil companies are still owed like several billion dollars of, of reparations based on the assets that they seized during the, the [01:01:00] original Chavismo, uh, takeover. 

Anita Kellogg: So, I mean, I think politically if you have hopes of a democratic transition for Venezuela, there are definitely reasons to be disappointed.

 While a lot of political prisoners have been released, about 500 re- remain in jail, and most of these are associated with the opposition leader, Maria Machado, uh, and who is, who is the top candidate for any sort of democratic transition. She's the one who, of course famously won the Nobel Prize, but they are allowing protests and there's even talk of potential elections in nine to 12 months.

 It seems like they could be similar to elections in the past, or maybe not as extreme, but it's hard to see ... I mean, if you still have all these opposition [01:02:00] members in jail or under House arrest and you've not cleared the way for the someone like Maria Machado to come back, it's hard to see that these will be fair and free elections, but probably not quite as bad as they were under Maduro who just ignored results completely.

Ryan Kellogg: Mm-hmm. 

Anita Kellogg: It was interesting that before holding re- elections, they want to have, the regime wants to have some form of im- immunity from prosecution, which is definitely understandably a, a concern for all their human rights abuses under the Maduro era. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It, it's, it's, uh ... And I mean, ultimately it comes down to the fact that, I mean, the US, and again, it's not a unified message because Rubio is certainly and it talked favorably about kind of a transition to a democracy and used, um Spain's transition back in 1975 as a potential model.

But certainly the [01:03:00] overall vibe coming out of the Trump administration is that we need to focus on economic reform first- mm-hmm. ... on rebuilding the oil and gas industry. 'Cause 

Anita Kellogg: that's what we really care about. 

Ryan Kellogg: That's what we really care about. And then, yeah, later we can, we can talk about democratic reform.

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. 

Ryan Kellogg: Now that being said, I mean, Machado has really been pushing hard and obviously she was you know, shortly after Maduro's capture was thrown under the bus by Trump saying basically that she didn't have the chops- Yeah. ... to, uh, to take command and control over the country, but she's still there. She actually was in uh, in Santiago.

Okay. Uh, was pretty interesting and because there's a large Venezuelan expat population there and she- Of course. ... hosted a rally at 17,000 in Santiago. So pretty, pretty big. So she's really resisted any kind of calls for this blanket amnesty [01:04:00] because that would be you know, in terms of her supporters, they wanna see, you know, people from, from the current regime kind of pay for their crimes.

 And it's still seeking to return to the country sooner rather than later because again it, maybe it hasn't, you know, fully reformed, but again, they allow, they allow protests now. Yeah. They have released some prisoners. Uh, there is more of the opposition. Probably the regime is still in its, it's a very weakened, Yeah.

state. Uh, that being said, both Trump and Rubio have urged her not to return to the country. So it still remains to be seen how much the opposition will try to push the issue themselves because they'll, they'll have some agency themselves to try to push events forward. And then the government, I mean, I think this was kind of this point was made in the economist article, is, um, the government will be in a tough spot.

She just shows up, people are allowed have basically had the freedom to [01:05:00] kind of rally to her support. We know that- 

Anita Kellogg: But most of her supporters are still in jail or house arrest. I mean- 

Ryan Kellogg: No, just the political, uh, the political leadership side. Okay. But the, these groups that the opposition are allowed and the protests, you know, essentially are her, her supporters.

And then we know from a previous election that Madura stole you know, she was able to run, but her proxy- Right. ... was, and they won the majority. So you can think flying into a city sh- she would have, like, significant amount of support. So it would create this situa- this difficult situation for the government given its current relationship and dependency on the US on how to react.

That being said, the US does, again, it wants stability- Right. ... and it wants to be able to put money in the industry and, As long as they see ... I mean, I think there's reasons to be wary of the opposition winning, and I, I think Trump and Rubio definitely show that, particularly Trump. I mean, Justin, [01:06:00] will they be as willing to have these reforms?

Anita Kellogg: Will they be more populist instead? Y- 

Ryan Kellogg: yeah, I think that's, that's the thing is they, with a truly democratically elected government they probably, because the initial terms that are being talked about are more favorable than or what are common with international oil and gas deals- Mm. ... with other countries.

So I think this is seen as we have all the cards, we're gonna manipulate this weak regime in order to get the best economic terms. Now, mind you, maybe that doesn't create the stability in order to actually invest. And that's where kind of Trump's gotten mad at, like, some of the, like, Exxon CEO who said this is uninvestible.

Now, he since has kind of backed off of that. 

Anita Kellogg: Mm-hmm. 

Ryan Kellogg: But his initial instinct, which I think is correct, is like, yeah, this you, you have all this uncertainty, you got burned in the past, you have this, you still have the same corrupt regime in place. How's this a good investible environment? 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. I think just the fear of a more [01:07:00] populous turn and, and re- renationalizing, I think is to me the biggest threat to investment.

But, you know, nice to see that we're out there willing to be exploitive, uh, once again and real good look for the oil industry. 

Ryan Kellogg: Oh, I don't know if I would put it on the oil industry. I mean, they're barely going along with this. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah, 

Ryan Kellogg: but if there 

Anita Kellogg: are-. ... deals that are more favorable than typical- 

Ryan Kellogg: Well, these are, these are terms being negotiated, I think, as like a framework between the US government and Venezuela, not necessarily the oil companies negotiating it, but yeah.

Anita Kellogg: Sure. 

Ryan Kellogg: But yeah, they will take those terms, of course. Yeah, exactly. It'd be crazy not to. Come on. 

Anita Kellogg: And that's also generating more popular than 

Ryan Kellogg: that. But usually what happens is if a new government comes in, they will insist upon renegotiating those terms- Yeah. ... and then you're taking whatever you can [01:08:00] best get.

 While still, they'll want to preserve investment in the country. Yeah. It's always a, a give and take, but yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. So all of this kind of feeds in then to, I think the greater master plan, especially for Rubio- mm-hmm. ... is around the fate of Cuba. So we mentioned before, because the US has full control of Venezuela's export capacity around oil, the US holds enormous power over Cuba, like more than it has since the, the communist takeover- mm-hmm.

in nine, in the 1960s. So what we saw ... And, and, and Cuba's already feeling the effects of this- Right. ... in extreme ways. So on March 16th power went out across the, uh, the entire country, uh, and this was actually, I think the third or fourth time- Yeah. ... in the month of March, in which they lost all power.

And that's because Cuba only produces [01:09:00] 40% of its powers needs domestically. So it's, it's in a pretty dire place currently. So what that has done, and again, this was, was meant to drive forward negotiations. So on March 13th, uh, Cuba's President, uh, Miguel Diaz Canal admitted that he is negotiating directly with the US, which again, unusual because this is a very insular communist regime- mm-hmm.

does not d- normally negotiate directly with the United States. And according to the economists, so some details emerged. So one was the, uh, the US is seeking expansion of will, of allowing additional fuel shipments, but they have to come from the US private sector. 

Anita Kellogg: Oh, okay. 

Ryan Kellogg: So again, we have to get the revenue, we have to get our bequet if they're gonna get additional fuel can come from, from, uh, from other sources.

 Again-. What's that? 

Anita Kellogg: That's so. 

Ryan Kellogg: This is just, this is 

Anita Kellogg: just 

Ryan Kellogg: unplowed, yeah, gun, gun boat diplomacy. 

Anita Kellogg: It's colonial. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, this is all [01:10:00] throwback to the 19th century. 

Anita Kellogg: That's wrong. 

Ryan Kellogg: Well, this is, this is our foreign policy now, so this is where we're- 

Anita Kellogg: Can only buy- This 

Ryan Kellogg: is why we're very popular around the world. The other area was opening the country up to, to US investments- mm-hmm.

and then on the, uh, I assume this was Rubio's, a little addition, uh, releasing political prisoners and allowing exiles to return not just as tourists, but actually as business owners. Yeah. So all of this is being theorized as a goal to destabilize the regime over time. So not to have something like Maduro where you just go in and snatch but using this to undermine the power that the Castro and kind of the communist, uh, elites have over the country and using energy really as that, that choke hold to punish and enforce these while trying to [01:11:00] grow private sources of power, mostly economic power over time so that you reach this point where they're so weak in that they can be easily overthrown.

So I thought that was kind of interesting that it is it isn't really focused kind of on the, a military application, which of course the US has, has failed historically at most famously with like the Bay of Pigs, but rather as a, we have, we've choked them off they will, they're in this extremely vulnerable spot and then to use that leverage to over time kind of weaken the regime and bring in these other sources of, of power from like the Cuban expat community and investment dollars and things along that.

So I don't know, what, what do you, you think of that? 

Anita Kellogg: Well, I mean, what I've been reading a little bit about this whole relationship with Cuba, yeah, is that we cut off their main supply of fuel and it's, [01:12:00] it's, as you just, you said all these things, but it's very desperate and this is what's forced them into some sort of negotiating.

So it's, it's pretty huge. Like you said, the most leverage since the communists took over and I think, you know, this form of economic warfare can be so effective that you don't even have to use, you know, more of your military prowess. Also, I think going in there and taking out one person like they did Maduro is not gonna do anything, but doing this, you might also have, you know, bringing economic growth having get the support of the Cuban people as well.

I think it's a very different situation than you have in a lot of countries, definitely different than Iran. Mm-hmm. Uh, you probably have a population in general more sympathetic to Americans, I think, I don't know, I don't know a lot about Cuba, but certainly will want reforms that, [01:13:00] that bring a stronger economy, and if the US can do that, obviously, I've rolled my eyes a little bit.

These deals with prioritizing American investment, requiring them to buy, American oil is is not 21st century- 

Ryan Kellogg: It is, it's- ... 

Anita Kellogg: Economics 

Ryan Kellogg: and trade. I mean, it reminds me a lot of the arrangements that the British empire did- Yes. ... with India as well. A lot of these are, are very similar. 

Anita Kellogg: So I think that's pretty terrible, uh, that we're putting those kind of restrictions on them.

I think, you know, you could definitely do this whole goal of destabilizing the regime and enforcing economic political liberalization by just opening up global trade.

Ryan Kellogg: Oh, by, um- 

Anita Kellogg: Not forcing them to buy like- 

Ryan Kellogg: Oh, I see. Yeah, yeah, [01:14:00] yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, you know, that, that was never gonna be, because, you know, we're the ones, if we're spending the money on the warships to, for the blockade and we should, American companies should realize the gains from- Well, this is just, 

Anita Kellogg: this is wrong, this is bad for global security gen- more generally I don't like that they're doing this.

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: Because I, I, you can accomplish all of your political goals and economic goals without doing that. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. I mean- Without the, the carve out specifically for US companies- You 

Anita Kellogg: know, just the matter of distance is already you're gonna buy probably more American oil than you're gonna buy from other places, uh, I would guess.

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And you, and, and then the- 

Anita Kellogg: I don't think you need the same 

Ryan Kellogg: thing. I mean, yeah, who else is gonna ... I mean, yeah, the, the [01:15:00] Cuban expat community in Florida is huge. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. 

Ryan Kellogg: So who else is gonna kinda go in there and, and, uh- 

Anita Kellogg: So, I mean, you- ... 

Ryan Kellogg: Kind of pass in the country. ... 

Anita Kellogg: you're likely to have the same results without being all Mercan- Mercantilist.

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. I think the, the other interesting aspect that I was reading is kinda how the Castro family is positioning in itself. Okay. And it's, uh, because it looks like the current president, who's not a Castro, but was like handpicked by Raul Castro- Right. ... who was the brother of Fidel Castro- Right. ... of course the, the revolutionary founder he's being set up kinda as the fall guy, this, uh, this president McGail Diaz Canal.

 But the Castro family, which is very extensive, but are like embedded throughout all aspects of the Cuban economy and, and the military and elite they're looking to position themselves still as the, like the, [01:16:00] the key deal makers. So that even in this, this deal and potential transition that they kinda retain power within the country.

And that's being kind of emulated by the fact that it is Raul Castro's grandson, Raul Guillermo Rodriguez, who's been in direct talks with Rubio, you know, around these, these situations. So the Castros are still very much embedded, you know, within it. So I know there's one article that was kinda like, are they gonna go from being kind of Marxist revolutionaries to crony capitalists this new, this new system.

 So it'd be interesting to see, which would be, which would kind of fit in with the current situation, Venezuela, where you're taking kind of this lead and kinda changing the system a bit, but to better serve US interest. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. Yeah. And if the Castro [01:17:00] family can capitalize on that, they have their own incentives.

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: If they're willing to change ideology, which isn't, would not be surprising historically. 

Ryan Kellogg: Well, and honestly, it goes back to their roots. I had no idea, I don't know if you knew this, but, um, yeah, Fidel Castro was like, came from a family of wealthy sugar plantation owners. 

Anita Kellogg: I did not know that. 

Ryan Kellogg: So they were like the bourgeois bourgeoisie of, but then became Marxist Revolutionary.

So I felt like this is just flipping back to the original family structure. 

Anita Kellogg: Other than Fidel's brother- Yeah. ... you don't have anybody who was part of that revolution, you know, you had- 

Ryan Kellogg: Right, yeah, the, yeah, it was a long time ago. I think, yeah, Raoul was like 94 years old. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: So yeah, so people ask me all the time if I think Cuba will be the next Venezuela, and I think clearly we're able to go about this in a, in a different way.

 [01:18:00] Obviously just the size of Cuba too allows us to have a more effective blockade, but I think we're waging very effective economic warfare that we don't always, we're not always able to leverage in other cases. So I think this will all be accomplished without the military direct invention. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Yeah.

No, I, I, I agree. I mean, I don't know. I, I feel somewhat optimistic that this may turn out okay in the long run. I don't like parts of it, but I think, I mean, just considering what I've read, how severe the energy crisis is in Cuba it seems like they're really put in a position where they have to negotiate.

Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. No, they're definitely over the proverbial barrel, uh, no pun intended and, um, yeah, I think they, they have little, little [01:19:00] choice at this point. And, but, but yeah, I mean, it, it's just the, it has a lot of potential. Um, I think the people have a lot of potential. I mean, it's huge amount of, of human capital there.

Not that will 

Anita Kellogg: allow them 

Ryan Kellogg: to 

Anita Kellogg: immigrate. United States? 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Yeah. And then, and then, you know, Trump's overriding desires a huge amount of beachfront property. I mean, this is, this is East Coast Hawaii written all over it. So the development and economic potential for something 90 miles away from Florida is enormous.

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. So yeah, both he and Rubio have personal reasons to want to pursue this. I think it is, you know, part of me is like, why couldn't we do this before what was holding our, us back? And if you, you know, if Trump had just taken around out of this and just focused on his- 

Ryan Kellogg: Don Road 

Anita Kellogg: [01:20:00] doctrine. ... Darrow doctrine, it would, it would look like, it would look pretty effective.

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, I agree. Yeah, it really is a stunning turnaround because I, and, and before I talked about how effective, like, Trump's Middle East policy was, you know, prior to this war. I mean, I think he's, he's an effective actor in there and that was one of the strengths from the first term. Uh, but now this is like the thing that could bring down, you know, how people think about his presidency.

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. I, I mean- 

Ryan Kellogg: From a foreign policy perspective, 

Anita Kellogg: but- I read an interesting article, I think it was the New York Times editorial board that I didn't 100% agree with, but just think if you had stuck to Venezuela and Cuba, like how much American power looks. And instead you have Iran, which they, they point out like militarily, like we were able to have this, you know, these tactical battles destroy so much, but we can't get [01:21:00] rid of the regime and Iran is held up in a sort of asymmetrical way in, in cost and, and keeping, again, just regime survival, which we've talked about would be a huge win for Iran.

So that, knowing that we're getting, going through these huge stockpiles without the immediate capabilities to replace them- 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. ... 

Anita Kellogg: I think has made the military on the whole maybe look a little bit weaker than it did after Venezuela. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, yeah. Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: I'm not able to reopen this trade of Hormuz is another- 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah.

Anita Kellogg: you know, looking at our Navy. Uh- Yeah. I think there are reasons why it does not show that the strength of American power and the way that these other events certainly have. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, for sure. I mean, I think it, it is ... I mean, we should be able to learn these sort of lessons through our previous cooperation and what we observed with Ukraine in terms [01:22:00] of like the, the change of the, the modern battlefield and the- Yeah.

the ineffectiveness of these huge expensive weapon systems against- 

Which 

Ryan Kellogg: is something that are. ... 

Anita Kellogg: pointed out, right? We're equipped to fight old type of wars- Right. ... but not modern wars. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: Which, uh, have allowed these smaller countries to, to gather this asymmetrical power. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. Yep. Yeah. So you would hope

I mean, I, I, I feel like the actual waging this war is the wake up call. Honestly, I think you had the wake up call, but maybe you have to actually have the experience of the wake up call because I think it's not just you know, the regime survivability, but I think a lot of people made notes of how effective the Iranian drones were in striking US military bases and sites and taking out aircraft and thing, and things like that, and how relatively vulnerable we were as a result.

So again, all of these things ... We went from, you know, January 3rd pulling [01:23:00] off one of the most masterful special operations missions and military history and looking overwhelmingly powerful, you know, from that, that sense to now it's like a, a, a lot of the sentiment is, oh, China, you know, sees how weak, you know, we've, you know, used all these munitions even a, a half rape country like Iran can neutralize, you know, a lot of these advantages.

China has, you know, in terms of these new means of warfare, much more advanced and has much greater- Of course. ... industrial capacity around that, as well as having all the traditional tonnage and, and naval capacity- Yeah. ... of the US. So it has like this combined force. Uh, so yeah, the, it, it, at least it seems like amongst the chattering classes and think tank pieces that the US seems to have significantly signaled [01:24:00] like military weakness in this campaign.

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. I think it shows, it's shown where our vulnerabilities lie. I mean, like you said, it could be a wake up call. I thought when ... I read some article this week that was talking about HECS has been pretty aggressively in trying to expand the industrial base to make more of these weapons, right? Mm-hmm. So that they're not producing 20 a year, they're producing 300 a year.

But the big problem is that money has to be allocated by Congress, and that's where, like, Congress is just not doing that. Yeah. And firms are saying, "We're not gonna increase our production until money is appropriated for it. " 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, yep. 

Anita Kellogg: So I think, you know, something I study a lot is the supply chain and industrial base and that is definitely a, a real s- serious concern and how long it takes to rebuild a stockpile and considering that China has this industrial base [01:25:00] where it could replenish much quicker than the United States could.

I mean, both sides would be out of missiles within days, but yeah, I think it reveals concerns that could spur action and better prepare the military- mm-hmm. ... uh, certainly, but it's interesting that Congress is, is dragging its feet on this too. 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah. 

Anita Kellogg: And just a quick plug, you know, I did write an article in the Warner Ox.

Oh yeah, yeah. Yeah, I just wanna plug that real quick about how, the importance of, of economic strategy as being a part of warfare, how supply chains are a crucial factor in operational planning and whether you can get re- repair parts and other factors that the military combatant leaders need to have an understanding of supply chains where those bottlenecks are and then some sort of like we're [01:26:00] doing all these things to bolster the industrial base, but they're coming from the Department of Energy, Department of Congress, XM Bank, the development finance corporation, so many different agencies, and there's no one central coordinating that.

So it also argues that perhaps in the Department of Defense, you can, you can organize that and produce tools- mm-hmm. ... to better understand the supply chain and that, and that. And then there's a webinar too, if you wanna, if you wanna watch. So all those links maybe in the show notes? 

Ryan Kellogg: Yeah, definitely in the show notes.

 Yeah, no, it was, it was a great piece. Definitely we're checking the, uh, the webinar piece that you did with, uh, together with the, uh, the Potomac Institute. Um, I think it's a really good, uh, good and compelling argument on the reforms that are needed. 

Anita Kellogg: Yeah. So if you wanna know more about where we stand with the industrial base and type of economic warfare that we're seeing more become more common.[01:27:00] 

Ryan Kellogg: Yep. Yeah, absolutely. 

Anita Kellogg: Well, I think that brings us to the end of this episode of Kellogg's Global Politics. You can visit our website at wwwkelloggsglobalpolitics.com and follow us on X at GlobalKellog or me@ARKellogg. 

Ryan Kellogg: You can also reach us by email, so Anita@kellogglobalpolitics.com and myself, Ryan@kellogglobalpolitics.com.

As always, please see the show notes for the articles we discussed in this episode. 

Anita Kellogg: Thanks, everyone. 

Ryan Kellogg: Thanks. Bye.