News RoundUp: AI, Jobs Transformed, Not Taken, Turbulence, Geopolitics, Climate Risk

Jobs aren’t vanishing—they’re evolving fast. We dig into why AI is changing tasks more than it’s replacing roles, which jobs feel the pressure first, and how smart upskilling can turn a threat into a career tailwind. From clerical and entry-level analyst work to creative and care professions, we map the real exposure and explain where human judgment, empathy, and critical thinking still anchor value.

Beyond the workplace, we zoom out to the forces bending global trade. The Russia–Ukraine war keeps energy and raw materials unstable, while Europe speeds up its de-risking from China amid a widening trade gap. Tariffs and protectionism set the tone for the next two years, pushing manufacturers to rework footprints in electronics and autos, reconsider suppliers, and prepare for higher input costs that could hit consumers by 2026. Fragmentation is now a planning assumption, not a surprise.

Then we confront the structural reality of climate disruption. Extreme weather repeatedly closes ports, snarls inland transport, and drives commodity spikes in coffee and cocoa. We unpack the resilience playbook companies are using: diversifying suppliers and geographies, reinforcing infrastructure, using digital twins for better forecasting, and cutting Scope 3 emissions with greener materials and logistics. We also challenge easy assumptions about “green” modes like rail, calling for data-driven choices across the network. Along the way, we share how retailers are reinventing last mile to claw back efficiency lost to tariffs and delays.

If you care about careers, costs, and the future of trade, this conversation connects the dots between AI in the office, geopolitics at the border, and climate at the port. Follow and subscribe for more clear takes on global supply chains—and tell us: what’s the biggest risk you’re preparing for next?

Chapters

• 0:00 Opening And Theme Setup
• 0:28 AI And The Future Of Work
• 3:22 Upskilling Over Protectionism
• 3:51 Ukraine War And Trade Shocks
• 6:01 UK Labor Market Strains
• 7:16 Europe De-Risks From China
• 8:15 Climate Disruption Becomes Structural
• 9:29 Tariffs Reshape Global Supply Chains
• 12:05 Year-End Logistics Stress And Rail Debate
• 13:26 How Firms Build Climate Resilience
• 17:43 Closing Reflections And Preview

Transcript

Tony Hines: 0:03

Hi, Tony Hines here you're listening to Chain Reaction? All About supply advantage. Well it's great to be here. Thanks for coming by. Great episode coming down the track in just a few moments. Stick around, stay tuned, stay informed, and stay ahead with Chain Reaction. Subscribe to Chain Reaction and you'll never miss an episode. Welcome to Chain Reaction, where we unpack the forces that shape global trade, business and policy. Well there's been a lot of discussion about the threat of AI taking people's jobs, and even the Governor of the Bank of England said this week that this was likely to happen. But he talked about more of a transformation, and he cited economic history from the Industrial Revolution, saying that jobs will be transformed rather than the replaced. The threat of AI taking jobs is real, but it's more about transformation than outright replacement. Most roles are evolving, not disappearing, though some sectors face higher disruption. Here's a breakdown of what's happening and what to watch. Here's what the latest research says. One in four jobs globally is exposed to generative AI, according to a 2025 study by the UN's International Labour Organization, ILO. However, the report emphasizes that job transformation, not elimination, is the dominant trend. Sixteen percent of workers say AI already performs part of their job, and another twenty five percent believe AI could do some of their tasks soon. Entry-level roles are especially vulnerable, particularly in fields like finance, journalism, and customer service, where AI can handle routine or repetitive tasks. A Microsoft study found that jobs involving data analysis, writing and teaching are being reshaped by AI tools, but not necessarily eliminated. Roles requiring emotional intelligence, critical thinking, and hands-on work remain more resilient. So who's most at risk? Well clerical and admin support, especially routine rule-based tasks, are easily automated. Entry-level analysts, data heavy tasks, are prime targets for AI tools. Creative professionals, AI can assist, but it doesn't fully replace human creativity. In healthcare and skilled trades that require physical presence, empathy, and complex judgment, less likely, but it will take away some of the routine tasks. So the key takeaways are that AI is a tool, not a replacement for most jobs. It's augmenting human capabilities rather than replacing them. Upskilling is critical. Workers who adapt and learn to work with AI are more likely to thrive, and policy and education systems must evolve to ensure equitable access to reskilling and protect vulnerable workers. Now I'm not a fan of this protect vulnerable workers or protect. Protection never works. We've only got to look at economic history for that. When the Luddites tried to break up machines in the textile industry, it's not about protectionism. This is about upskilling. It's about making people fit for the future. Well the war between Russia and Ukraine continues, and this week the EU agreed to lend ninety billion euros to Ukraine to continue their efforts, but they haven't agreed to use the frozen Russian assets, not yet at least. While this war continues, it's a threat to global supply chains in a number of ways. Obviously raw materials, the volumes of trade that are conducted, and the way in which energy prices continue to rise are all as a result of this particular conflict. Despite all the efforts of the United States, some of which is possibly misguided in the way they've set about the task, there's no likelihood at present of a peace agreement that satisfies the two parties. Russia is holding out, and it seems to be supported in some ways by the United States and Ukraine, well, reliant on Europe at present. You'd think that in the twenty first century there would be better ways to resolve conflicts and problems than war. So whose interest is it in to continue wars using missiles and weapons? Is it the industrial military complex, which was often cited by previous American presidents? Or is it something else? Clearly I think the Russian goal is a political aim. It's a political restoration of the Soviet Union. As for Ukraine, they value their independence from Russia and want to maintain that independence, and they'd rather be part of the European project than the Russian project. So will twenty twenty six bring an end to that conflict. I think most of the world would be hopeful that that would be the case. UK unemployment this week reached five point one percent, and it's particularly affected entry level jobs with younger people badly affected. The number of unemployed in the eighteen to twenty four year old age group increased by eighty-five thousand in the three months to October, and that's the largest increase since November 2022, according to the Office for National Statistics. Many of course think that the fall in jobs is due to government action with increased taxes and changes to the minimum wage. The rise in the minimum wage is making employers think twice about taking on people, as are the national insurance cost increases for employers. So that set the trend in place, and the recent budget has done little to alleviate any of that concern. Now let's take a look at some of the biggest supply chain stories of the week. European firms are accelerating their exit from China. They're speeding up their efforts to diversify supply chains away from mainland China, and that's being driven by Beijing's push for self-reliance and tightening export controls. China's trade surplus hit 1 trillion US dollars for the first time in November. Exports to the United States fell 29%, while exports to the EU rose nearly 15%. That of course is all because of Trump's tariffs. The EU's trade imbalance with China has widely sharpened. It's now 1 to 4 in container terms versus 1 to 2.7 in 2019. So why does it matter? Well the widening trade imbalance is fueling diplomatic tension and accelerating Europe's push to de-risk from China. Extreme weather is becoming a structural supply chain threat. A major supply chain analysis this week highlighted how climate-driven weather disruption is no longer episodic. It's structural. Frequent storms and extreme weather are causing regular pork closures and inland transport delays. 93% of perishable cargo owners have been hit by climate disruption in the past three years. Commodity prices are spiking, coffee's up 40%, cocoa up 136%, and it's all because of weather damage to harvests. Weather volatility is now a core supply chain risk and not just a seasonal nuisance. The tariff turmoil continues to reshape global trade. The World Economic Forum, in the latest review, shows that tariffs and protectionism remain the dominant forces shaping global trade this year. The post-2024 US election environment has triggered aggressive tariff policies and retaliatory measures worldwide. South-South trade to south is rising as countries diversify away from Western markets. Supply chains are shifting to avoid tariff exposure, especially in electronics and automotive sectors. Fragmentation is becoming the new normal, and companies are redesigning supply chains around political risk and not just cost. Manufacturers are preparing price increases to offset the higher costs of reshoring and tariff-driven supply chain restructuring. US companies are facing higher input costs due to the new tariff regimes imposed by the Trump administration, and some sectors, especially semiconductors, report tariffs as their top policy concern. Consumers may feel the impact in 2026 as companies pass on reshoring related costs to them. The Economist has warned this week that firms will face ongoing tariff volatility, forcing more supply chain rejigging and cost cutting, expect more price hights and belt tightening. China's industrial dominance continues to reshape global chemicals and manufacturing supply chains, and tariff unpredictability is becoming a long-term strategic challenge. It's not just a temporary disruption. So tariffs appear to be quite a big problem. So what can we glean from those news items this week? Well, de-risking from China's accelerating, especially in Europe, climate disruption is becoming a permanently constant threat to supply chains. Tariff wars are reshaping global trade flows, reshoring is driving up costs with price hikes likely ahead coming down the track. Retailers are innovating last mile deliveries to try and compensate for the loss of efficiency through tariffs and taking advantage of technology, and tariff chaos expected to intensify into 2026. Now we have an episode on Chain Reaction coming down the track, which is uh all about a review of 2025 and how tariffs have well stung the world. And you can also listen to how 2025 trade hit 35 trillion while supply chain struggled with tariffs, talent and tech. And that's a special episode that was available from December the 15th. So if you haven't heard that yet, drop by and pick that up. Along with the new episode when it comes out. Of course, if you subscribe to Chain Reaction, you'll be first to know when new episodes are out, and you won't miss an episode.

Speaker 2: 12:10

Chain Reaction Reaction Reaction.

Tony Hines: 12:13

Now it's often the case at this time of year, as we approach the year end, that a lot of stress is placed on logistics and delivery organizations, and that can be a real issue. So give a thought for all those hard working people in supply chains who you don't see and you don't know, who bring you your goods this time of year. I was reading an article this week about rail freight and it took me back to the episode we did quite some time ago about rail freight looking for ways to be more efficient in supply chains, but not only to be more sufficient, but to be cleaner and greener in the way we actually deliver goods. But it turns out a report by Reuters this week is saying that the problem with freight in the United States, particularly rail freight, is that it's not clean, it's not green, and it's quite a dirty business. And that challenges the impact of having rail as a replacement for trucks. So it'd be interesting to see some further research about that, to know exactly the numbers involved. Well, when we think about climate change, revisiting that particular impact on supply chains and what companies are doing to reduce the impact. There's clear evidence based on how climate change is disrupting global supply chains and what companies are doing to adapt. It's grounded in the latest reporting from various organizations. Climate change is no longer an occasional nuisance, as we said earlier. It's become structural, constant, and a threat to global logistics. Extreme weather is causing routine disruption, floods, storms, earthquakes, and late season tropical systems now frequenting the weather patterns. So much so that they're regularly shutting ports, delaying inland transport, and damaging infrastructure, bridges, roads, and so on. Businesses are recognizing the climate change disruption isn't just operational, but a sign that fundamental change is needed on how to deal with it. Severe weather is making logistics riskier than ever, according to Mersk, and they have a resilience analysis team that look at this. Ninety-three percent of perishable cargo owners experienced climate related disruption in the last three years, as we noted, and whether damaged harvests have pushed up prices of various commodities, coffee and cocoa, and of course rice. Climate change amplifies existing vulnerabilities. Railway News noted that supply chains already face geopolitical and market risks, but climate change adds new unpredictable threats that can cause a major financial hit, and they quote a figure of thirty percent of a bitter earnings before interest tax dividends. So what are companies doing to reduce the climate impact? Well they're adapting, they're making supply chains more resilient, and how are they doing that? Well, diversifying suppliers and geographies. Firms are reducing dependencies on single regional vulnerabilities to storms, floods, or heat waves, and this includes multi-sourcing and shifting production to more climate stable regions. They're also building climate resilient infrastructure, reinforcing warehouses, ports, bridges, rail tracks, and so on, investing in food resistant facilities, upgrading cooling systems for heat-sensitive goods, and MERSC have highlighted the need for visibility and resilience strategies to handle severe weather disruptions. Using advanced forecasting and digital twins, companies can adopt predictive analytics to anticipate weather-related delays and reroute shipments in real time. They're also shortening their supply chains by near shoring and reshoring to reduce exposure to long distance climate risks, and they're creating more control over logistics. They're also reducing emissions from supply chains by cutting scope 3 emissions, which account for 11.4 times more emissions than companies' direct operations, according to the Boston Consulting Group. This has pushed firms to switch to low carbon suppliers, use greener materials, and require emissions reporting from vendors. Electrifying transport and logistics companies are adopting electric trucks, renewable powered warehouses, and low carbon shipping options. They're also investing in renewable energy. McKinsey notes that renewable energy is now the largest source of new global energy capacity, and companies are increasingly integrating it into their operations. They're also redesigning products for sustainability, lighter, recyclable, or modular products, reduce emissions and make logistics more climate resilient. So the big picture, hardening infrastructure, digitizing logistics, diversifying suppliers, and cutting emissions across the value chain. But the scale of the challenge means adaptation and mitigation must accelerate. Well, welcome to the bit at the end. Yep, we've reached the end of today's programme. I hope you've enjoyed it, and I hope you've learned something new from listening. There's just one more episode before the year end, and that's a reflection on the year that's been, and it takes a look forward to the year ahead. So I hope you'll come by and pick that one up and have a listen to that before we enter the new year. Of course you can always look back to see how my predictions held up from last year, can't you? If you get really bored over the festive season. And uh you can check me out there. I think I was fairly accurate in my predictions last year. Let's hope I am this year. It's pretty clear from the evidence that we're gonna have probably a year in which geopolitics is gonna play a big part. Climate change with all the disruption that that has brought and will bring. The wars, if they still persist and go on, and that's likely, unless something drastic happens and there's a a wake-up call to people who want the wars to exist. And uh well let's see how things play out. I think it was Thomas Carlyle that said economics is a dismal science. And he didn't mean it was dismal as in the everyday term that it's dismal because it's not good. He simply meant that it's dismal because it brings gloomy news quite often. And there is gloomy news in the economics of global trade and policy. And some of the political classes making decisions about policy. Well, quite frankly, they're on short term time frames, which are electoral time frames where they get elected in in democracies and they're not really too bothered as long as they can get reelected. And the policies can be very, very poor quality as a consequence of that. But let's hope that there are still some good people out there and some of them are policy makers too. And they bring some cheer in the new year. In the meanwhile, take care, have a good festive season, and I'll see you in a new year. Bye for now. I'm Tony Hines, I'm signing off. See you next time.