Davos Power Politics

Davos 26 wasn’t just a conference; it was a stress test for a world already running hot. We watched power plays crowd out policy as President Trump’s headline‑grabbing tariffs, Greenland ambitions, and the splashy “Board of Peace” pulled focus from AI, climate, and markets. That spectacle mattered because the signals coming off the stage—threats, boasts, and unvetted claims—translate directly into capital plans, sourcing choices, and risk premiums across global supply chains.

We pull the thread from politics to operations with clear language and grounded facts. You’ll hear how aggressive geopolitical messaging spooked European leaders, why a billion‑dollar buy‑in to an untested peace vehicle raises compliance and governance alarms, and where NATO friction seeps into routing and insurance. We also fact‑check hot takes on UK energy—how production truly compares to 1999 levels, what import dependency looks like today, and why fantasy-scale North Sea reserves distort debate. The goal is simple: separate signal from noise so strategy doesn’t bend to bad data.

Then we get practical. We map the real costs of tariff whiplash and policy volatility, from inventory buffers and working capital squeeze to retaliatory measures and stranded assets. We lay out a resilience architecture you can act on: multisourcing at tier two, interoperable specs to avoid redesign delays, pre-booked capacity with indexed clauses, legal readiness for sanctions pivots, and contingency payment rails. Finally, we zoom out to the macro picture—an accelerating drift into fragmented trade blocs across the US, China, and Europe, a higher baseline of uncertainty, and structural, not cyclical, instability shaping decisions in semiconductors, EVs, and critical minerals.

If you want clear insight, not headlines; practical moves, not platitudes; and a framework to turn turbulence into advantage, you’re in the right place. Subscribe, share with a colleague who manages risk or sourcing, and leave a review with one action you’re taking to harden your network this quarter.

Chapters

• 0:00 Opening And Agenda Setting
• 0:37 Davos Dominated By Trump
• 2:33 Personality, Power And Critiques
• 5:05 The Costly Board Of Peace Concept
• 7:00 Europe’s Response And Ruptured Order
• 9:45 Geopolitics, Greenland And Markets
• 12:20 2026 Outlook: Chaos For Supply Chains
• 14:20 Fact-Checking UK Energy Claims
• 18:10 Playbooks For Supply Chain Resilience

Transcript

Tony Hines: 0:02

Hello you're listening to chain reaction, I'm Tony Hines, and we've got a great show coming along in a few moments. Hello, Tony Hines here, you're listening to Chain Reaction, the pulse of the beating heart of supply chains. So stick around, stay tuned, stay informed, and stay ahead with Chain Reaction. And we've got a great episode coming your way right now. Well the news agenda this week was dominated by Davos twenty six. World leaders holed up in Switzerland for the past few days. And it was the Donald Trump show really. The president flew into town? Like a circus ringmaster with his entourage. The circus. Not on Air Force one because that had some problems. Electrical problems that forced it to turn round and go back, and he had to come on an ordinary plane. When I say ordinary, not Air Force one, that's what I mean. And of course, he was much waited for by European leaders concerned about Greenland and what he would do. The president had threatened to take Greenland hook or by crook. Either in a deal, paying for it, or by military force. The latter was ruled out by the end of the Davos address. But he came with all his pronouncements typical Trump style. It was bluster, insults, and full of I suppose what many would suggest are false claims. Nothing much that the president actually says can be verified easily. He makes lots of statements, lots of pronouncements, grand style, and there's lots of chaos and lots of disruption that follows. And of course, some people are getting very concerned about the stance taken by the United States to all kinds of world problems. Now, just consider these characteristics obsession with power and status, grandiose policy proposals, solipsism and narcissism. These are all labels that have been thrown at the president at one time or another by many critics. His obsession with power is evidenced by grandiose delusions of significance, and notable intellectuals like Noam Chomsky have described him as a sociopathic megalomaniac, focused solely on his own power, and if you listened to him this week, well, you'd probably lean towards that conclusion. Whether he's a narcissist, of course, expert psychiatrists like Robert J. Lifton argue Trump is better described as a solipsist, someone who only has a point of reference in themselves. He is very self obsessed, of course, and that was demonstrated in the focus on all the achievements that he'd made, solving all these wars around the world, not being given the Nobel Prize, of course, for those things. And some think he's actually mentally ill. But I'll leave it for you to make up your own mind. The one thing he is is disruptive, and he's causing lots of headaches for world leaders elsewhere, and of course, for businesses who are trying to get on with doing their job. His tariffs have been extremely damaging, despite all the president's claims of how successful he's been. The president also announced his Board of Peace this week, but it didn't have full support, and it costs a billion US dollars to be a member of that board. And one of the little known facts about the Board of Peace, I mean it started off as a Board of Peace for Gaza, something to solve the war between Israel and the Gaza Strip. But it's turned out to have much more wide-ranging scope. And the president is the president of the Board of Peace, and that's a lifetime appointment according to the constitution of the Board of Peace. So the President's gonna be there as that president of the Board of Peace, even when he goes out of office in a few years' time. When there'll be a new president of the United States. I'm guessing though that the Board of Peace will not last beyond Donald Trump's presidency. So if you're stomping up a billion dollars right now, you've probably only got three years membership. Well, apart from Donald Trump's escapades at the Davos twenty six this week, there was also a major speech from Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Union. And she talked about independence. She said we're living in a very fractured and fractious world. And she went on to put the arguments for cooperation, partnership, and I suppose an ethical stance towards a rule based world order. But I think there was recognition by lots of leaders this week that there's a rupture. And that's what the Presidents of Canada said. There's been a rupture to the world order. And it's not rules based anymore. And that's clear every day, it's at the whim of President Trump. President Trump has withdrawn his offer to President Kearney to become a board member of his Board of Peace. But Mark Carney said he's not that bothered. He said Canada exists without America. If you want to listen to the full discussion of what Ursula von der Leyen actually said in her speech, then you can tune in to the chain reaction episode, where there's a full summary of that discussion. And also if you want to know what the implications are for global supply chains, then there's also a full summary of that too, in a separate episode. So you might want to tune into that as well. The President announced on Friday this week, after Davos, that American warships are moving towards Iran. So this is another announcement to keep the President on the front pages. President Trump's Davos address appeared centered on aggressive geopolitical messaging, boasts about US economic performance and renewed pressure on Europe and Greenland. His remarks drew global attention for the confrontational tone and sweeping claims about tariffs, immigration and international alliances, none of which were verified. No facts are ever given. On the geopolitics of Greenland, Trump doubled down on his intention to acquire Greenland, insisting on the right, title, and ownership, while saying he would not use force. His rhetoric unsettled European leaders and revived tensions within NATO. His economic messaging, he said, that there were major US economic achievements, including record stock markets, lower inflation, and tougher immigration policies. Trump criticized Europe's economic direction and immigration policies, calling the continent unrecognizable. So look at us how well we're doing, and you're not doing so good. That was the big message. And of course, are the stock markets in America doing that well? They're up and down, aren't they? Depending on what he says on which day. And lower inflation? Well, there's certainly some lower inflation. And tougher immigration policies, certainly tougher immigration policies, even in the United States with IC. And the problems that that appears to be causing. As for the Board of Peace, Trump promoted a new international initiative, his Board of Peace. He launched it with nineteen countries and positioned this as an alternative to traditional multilateral bodies like the United Nations. Of course, many of the European countries are not members of the Board of Peace right now, despite Trump's invitation. The proposal raised concerns in Europe about cost, structure, and overlap with the United Nations. Many are concerned what this is. Is it a duplication? Is it just a Trump grandiose mission? What is it? And what's it for? What's the purpose? Many don't understand the purpose of this. It started out focused on Gaza, but it now has a much broader remit, and of course European nations are very unhappy that Putin's been invited to join the Board of Peace. The man of war on the Board of Peace. His speech mixed humor, provocation, and pointed attacks on political opponents and other allied nations, even mimicking some. Observers noted palpable tensions in the room as he took aim at Europe, the UK, Canada, and NATO. Trump's appearance dominated the Davos agenda, overshadowing discussions on AI, climate, and global markets. His remarks were widely viewed as a blend of economic self-promotion and geopolitical pressure, with Greenland and Europe at the centre of his message. Europe, of course, is resisting his approaches to Greenland, and the President doesn't like any opposition. Well, the one thing that's clear from all the dialogue at Davos this week, and particularly from the President of the United States, is that twenty twenty six is going to be chaotic, disruptive, and quite a challenge for global supply chains. So I think we've got more of the same. And I've already said this in other episodes in the past couple of weeks, because everyone can see this coming, but this week it was certainly confirmed. The evidence is there for all to see. It's going to be a year in which there is going to be lots of world tension. There's going to be lots of manoeuvring, lots of posturing, positioning, and could there be more tariffs? Maybe. Depends on the markets, of course. Those markets that President Trump wants to go up, well, will they go up? They'll only go up if the tariffs come down. Now one of the things I was interested in when I listened to President Trump speak were his statements about UK energy. He said that the UK produced ninety percent of its own energy in nineteen ninety nine. That's roughly correct. UK energy production peaked around nineteen ninety nine two thousand, driven by the height of North Sea oil and gas exploitation. During that particular period, the UK was a net exporter of energy and was largely self sufficient. His claim that the UK produces just one third of the energy it did in nineteen ninety nine also stated as down ninety percent plus or something. That verdict is a bit misleading and it's mixed. The UK government data confirms a significant decline, but it's not as extreme as implied in the latter part of the statement. The production total for UK energy production in twenty twenty four was roughly sixty eight percent lower than at its peak in nineteen ninety nine. This means the UK produces about one third or slightly less of the total energy it did in nineteen ninety nine, making that specific part of the statement accurate. Import dependency while production is down, the UK does not import 97% of its energy and 3% native. In 2024, the UK's net import dependency was forty three point eight percent, meaning it still produces over half of its energy needs domestically. He also claimed that the North Sea has 500 years of oil reserves and the UK is sitting on them. That verdict is completely false. The North Sea is a mature, aging basin. While there are still resources available, estimates suggest only about seven to ten years of proven, probable oil and gas reserves remain at current extraction rates, not five hundred years. So, in summary, while it is correct that the UK domestic energy production has dropped significantly, roughly sixty seven percent since its ninety nine peak, the implication that the UK is nearly entirely dependent on ninety-seven per cent of its energy on imports, and it's only three percent self sufficient is not supported. That's just wrong. And the claim that we have five hundred years of reserves in the North Sea wrong. So you have to be careful about what the president says and you have to check the facts, because he says it very convincingly, as if he's got all the facts at his fingertips, but actually he mixes things up. Let's add a post script to our discussion about the power shifts discussed and observed at Davos. In supply chains, of course, we're used to facing ripples or even large waves that come from policy volatility, tariff threats, and of course the strains on NATO with the possible choke points in different parts of the world, and an audacious claim to Greenland from the president. The free world using coercive power. Strange, isn't it? When the market has to guess tomorrow's tariff schedules, inventory buffers creep up, working capital tightens and smaller suppliers miss credit windows. If we add public pressure campaigns and sanctions risk, and you get root concentration and a scramble for compliant alternatives, leaders tracking policy milestones like they track demand signals. Of course we have to pre-book capacity, renegotiate index clauses, and shift exposure from spot to structured contracts before volatility prices in. There's a type of split screen reality going on here. On the one hand, businesses are trying to run their businesses efficiently and effectively, and policy is chaotic. We get calls for partnership on one side, a rise in block to block defensiveness on the other, and the more governance fragments, the more firms need modular networks. It means multi sourcing at tier two, redundant certification and interoperable specs, so that a swapped supplier doesn't trigger a design change. It also demands legal readiness, terminate and transfer clauses, export control triage, and playbooks for switching payment rails if sanctions hit. Resilience isn't a slogan, of course, it's an architecture built from supplier visibility, diversified lanes, and contracts that assume turbulence rather than simply hope it passes by. Turbulence and Trump go together. Trump's tariffs, of course, have led to consequences that demand policy choices. Tariffs don't just raise prices, they reshape cost structures across entire industries, force companies to re route supply chains, trigger retaliatory measures from trading partners, and create uncertainty that makes long term planning much harder. Even the threat of new tariffs can cause companies to pause investment or accelerate relocation. Trump of course hoped he would relocate businesses to the United States with his actions. But of course, some of that is happening, but who knows if it would have happened anyway because of market conditions. But not everybody's going to relocate to the United States because it doesn't suit their setup and it would increase their cost base. When it comes to business volatility, trade policy shifts rapidly change the nature of those. Constant recalculations of sourcing strategies, high risk premiums, pressure to diversify suppliers, and difficulties forecasting demand and pricing. The current environment is a policy driven instability rather than a market driven instability, which we're more used to. The broader pattern is of course disruption as a governance tool, with tariffs, sanctions, export controls, industrial subsidies and regulatory shocks, instruments of leverage, and these tools are inherently disruptive and ripple out through the global supply chain system. The turbulence isn't isolated, it's part of a wider shift towards state directed economic competition. We're likely to see more tariff escalation and the stop start approach that President Trump has made his signature calling card. We'll see supply chains hardening as companies continue to build redundancy, move production closer to home markets, reduce exposure to single country dependencies, and look for hubs. And this is expensive, but increasingly seen as necessary. The world is drifting towards fragmented trade blocks, a US aligned economic sphere, a China aligned economic sphere, the European trading zone, and an unaligned buffer zone. And the fragmentation is already visible in semiconductors, EVs and critical minerals. There's also a higher baseline uncertainty. Policies may change abruptly, trade rules may be temporary, geopolitical risk is now a core business variable. In other words, uncertainty is becoming structural, not cyclical. In today's fast moving global economy, supply chains aren't just operational, they're strategic. In Chain Reaction, we deliver clear insights, expert analysis, and forward-thinking perspectives for leaders who want to build real competitive advantage. Each episode unpacks the trends, technologies, and decisions shaping the future of supply chain performance. If you're committed to smarter strategy, strong resilience, and agility and staying ahead of industry change, this is the podcast designed for you. This is Chain Reaction, all about supply chain advantage with Tony Hines. Listen, learn and lead. Thanks for joining me on Chain Reaction. I'm Tony Hines, and remember, every decision in your supply chain creates a reaction. Make yours a competitive advantage. Until next time, stay informed, stay prepared, and stay ahead. With Chain Reaction. Bye for now.