A Nuclear Future with Uranium Insider

Justin Huhn is the analyst and writer behind Uranium Insider, which is the leading authority in uranium market news, analysis, & identifying the best companies in the space. 

Justin’s Newsletter: https://www.uraniuminsider.com/ 

Justin’s Twitter: @uraniuminsider

Vasanth’s Newsletter: https://nextbite.substack.com/

Vasanth’s Twitter: @NextVasanth

Time stamps:

00:42 - What got Justin into Uranium.

02:51 - Are we in the middle of another squeeze?

04:48 - How transparent is supply?

08:18 - Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT) and their influence on the market

15:04 - Hedge Funds purchasing physical uranium

16:50 - CRDN and jurisdictional risk

19:31 - Nuclear provisions in the US infrastructure bill

20:54 - Social media and it’s role in the uranium markets

26:07 - What piece on the demand side is not being widely recognized?

29:13 - What will signal the top of the bull market?

31:41 - Is there seasonality? Is Justin a buyer right now?

35:18 - What is a topic in this filled that isn’t discussed enough or hasn’t gotten enough exposure?

38:31 - Can Thorium be a substitute to Nuclear?

Intro Music: "Pain is the Essense" remix by @AdiSoundsGood on Twitter

Art Hyde (Segra Capital) - https://www.segracapital.com/commentary/you-say-you-want-a-revolution

Disclaimer: The contents presented in this episode is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. 

Transcript

0:00

I would say what isn't discussed enough is how safely and how well waste is stored and how, how less of an issue it is than most people believe. I think that that's any time I even speak with somebody who's pro-nuclear, that's like just everyday, you know, conversation at a dinner party or something. And they asked me what I do. We talked talking about nuclear energy. Like, oh, I'm so behind it that it's just, man. What about the waste? And then I tell them that all of the ways that were produced in the United States, since the fifties can be stored on a single football field, 30 feet high, and they go really. Justin, thank you so much for coming on to age of information. You know, uranium is this thing that some people may or may not have heard of, if you did hear about it you probably heard about it through TV shows or the general news. I've realized in the last year that it's very sophisticated and there's a lot going on. And I think a great place to start this conversation is to just ask you, how did you get into this space? What attracted you and what makes it as interesting as it is right? Sure. Yeah. Thanks so much for having me. Well, what first attracted me honestly, is the investing potential in the sector. You know, that that was 2016. So about five years ago, when the thesis first came to me, I primarily had been a momentum technical trader for the previous, you know, five plus. And this thesis came to me about the sector that had a commodity, that it was, you know, based upon trading at, you know, a third or a quarter of the, of the price that it should be trading at for the marginal cost of production. And it is this hated sector. It's been in a long bear market. And, but yet it was a growth sector. The, the, the outlook for nuclear energy out of the future is very positive. Was and is, and you know, it was only a matter of time before the demand for uranium as the, as the fuel for nuclear energy, kind of turn that investment around. And so that's what got me interested. Obviously, the previous bull market for uranium from an investment side of things was very very lucrative for investors to say the least from about the 2003, 2004 to around 2007. There was just a bull market of epic proportions. So you know, investors always want lightning to strike twice and it usually never does and the exact way, but that's what got me into. The more research I did, the more I realized I was really fascinated with the sector and, you know, come, you know, jump to today and I'm a full-blown advocate for nuclear energy and, and has amazing benefits for the world that we live in. And so it's, it's a wonderful investment from that standpoint, because that's something that has already and will continue likely to offer significant returns to patient investors while at the same time. It's something that I can feel good about investing in and knowing that I believe that it's part of a solution for, you know, clean energy for, for the developed world going forward. How confidently can we say that lightening is about a strike or is it striking twice right now? It's I can say pretty confident. So the previous bull market went from just such a, such an extreme, low to an extreme high in such a short period of time. And I don't believe that this time around, it's going to repeat that timescale. So, you know, we bought them out this, in this cycle about$18 a pound for uranium in 2016. And we're up at about$46 a pound now, and the equities have done extremely well since that point. You know, the worst performers are up about 250. And the best performers are up about 5,000 to 10000% since 2016 already. But the potential for the price for uranium to go much, much higher is definitely there. It's practically guaranteed to go another 50% higher because there's a supply deficit based on the expected demand, going out into the later part of this decade, where. Marginal cost of production is going to have to come into play to fill that deficit. So you have uranium mines, like the lowest cost producers right now in Kazakhstan they're producing for, you know, in some of their minds are less than$10, a pound cash costs, but fully allocated when you consider the dividend they pay and, and interest rates and supply chain issues. And all of that they're producing at about 35 bucks a pound. That's the cheapest in the world. Then you have projects. You know, Bannerman's tango project in Namibia that has a few hundred million pounds of uranium. That's ready to be developed, but they need, you know,$80 a pound. Right. And so at$46 a pound, and you can pretty much guarantee that we're going to go into that 65, 70$5 range, but the likelihood that it's going to overshoot is extremely high. For reasons we can talk about further if you'd like, but basically there's there's financial players and hedge fund interest and things like that that are actually physically purchasing physical uranium and affecting the market in that way as well. So, yeah, I think, you know, my understanding is that the supply side of it has a lot of players and it is a very important piece in how we sort of forecast the pricing of uranium. Like you said Kazakhstan, it needs it at least at$85. But how transparent is the amount of supply that's available and will be produced? I've heard some reports that whether it's China or some other sort of foreign entities, they could have more supply than what we previously considered is that a possibility it's not very transparent at all for the most part. I mean, you really have to do a lot of research and you can, you can gain some insight through some like higher price subscription memberships that like the utilities, for example, pay for with the like UFC and trade tech. These are the consultants, nuclear fuel consultants. They have a pretty good grasp on what's going on out there in the nuclear fuel markets. Of course speaking with utilities, speaking with traders, you can kind of get a better idea. You can make very rough estimates based on the estimated over-supply from the previous day. You know, subtracting what China likely took out of that. And that's what you have left over in the global mobile inventory category. Let's say from the mid 20 teens until now that number roughly let's say was 150 to 200 million pounds of excess supply that didn't go to China that was available for sale or for trade over the past number of years. When you consider chemicals shutting down McArthur river in 2018, combined with their purchasing, they themselves have had a hundred million pound influence into that deficit. We've had something called a carry trade that has been prevalent in the uranium market for the past few years. Is traders essentially are signing contracts with utilities to provide uranium 2, 3, 4 years out. And they are covering the cost of capital. They're taking on a bit of risk for holding that on their books and they're going out and purchasing that some of that mobile inventory and making it. Easily accessible to utilities. This was a boon for utilities over the past five plus years. Of course it hurt the producers. You have the chemicals of the world that are sitting on this massive mind, the largest in the world, McArthur river, and saying we need 45 to$55 a pound. We need those insecure long-term contracts or this mine's not coming back on. Yeah, the utilities continue to go back to the carry traders for this cheap pounds for 2, 3, 4 year delivery as they should. So that is all sort of coming to an end now and we're having this very slow turn from a oversupplied buyers market to an under-supplied sellers. And it's yeah, it's quite opaque. It's difficult to really drill down. You know, it's easier to understand the primary production. That's a number that you can kind of wrap your head around. As far as Chinese supplies go. They don't have a lot of domestic supply as far as mined uranium. It's not a lot. It's probably, you know, less than 10 million pounds a year that they're pulling out of China and that stays in. They have hundreds of millions of pounds of inventory, but that's essentially strategic national inventory, especially considering their build-out plans, which are significant. They're shooting for 200 gigawatts of nuclear by 2035. And they currently have 50. So 150 gigawatts is about 150 new reactors that needed to be built in the next 15 years. They have 18 under construction right now. So they're going to go gangbusters on nuclear. So the likelihood that their strategic inventory is going to be sold in the market is pretty. Right. And it seems like one of the biggest I guess price makers is the spot trust. So if you could quickly describe, what is that trust? I think my understanding is that, you know, had a lot of influence when it first launched, but that influence that has maybe sort of degraded over time. And I don't know how much influence it's still holds on the market. You know, we're talking in November. So if you could speak to that, Sure. Yeah. Their influence is still substantial and likely going to only grow. And that has to do with the consistently increasing liquidity of that. It's going to draw more and more investment interest, especially if they get a New York stock exchange listing next year, which I believe they will they'll have some opposition most likely from the utilities in the states. Why would the utilities oppose a New York stock exchange listing for spot? Well, I don't know that they necessarily. They're there. So, first of all, when the sec, when you file the application for the New York stock exchange listing with the sec, there's a, like a three-week comment period, public comment period. And you know, the utilities, us nuclear utilities have a lot of lobbying power of the government. And so they're likely to push back against it because they're going to recognize that this listing is going to allow. Orders of magnitude more liquidity to come into this vehicle, which directly equals purchasing a physical pounds of uranium, which is driving up the spot price. Even though you utilities, at least right now are largely out of the spot market. It still affects the term market. They, they have term contracts still that are rolling off or have expected deliveries out into the future that are at least partially referenced to the spot price of uranium. So if they sign the term, contract that$40 a pound. 40% and 60% spot reference probably with a ceiling, but either way at the time of delivery, they have to pay whatever the spot price is for that, for that delivering uranium. And they obviously don't want to pay any more than they have. So there, they're going to have something to say about it. I don't know that they can stop it. But we'll see. I'm, you know, it's not something we're even betting on because we've already seen what they've been able to do on the TSX alone. Just the New York stock exchange is what 13 times the size in terms of capital. So, but to backtrack briefly, The spot is the Sprott physical uranium trust they brought, had been working on this deal of taking over uranium participation corporation for almost three years. Uranium participation corporation was founded in 2005. It's a physical trust or physical. Where they were when they were trading at a significant premium to their net asset value. So the value of the stock because of buying pressure grew faster than the underlying price of uranium, that premium would allow them to issue shares into the open market, raise cash by more physical uranium. They accumulated 18 million pounds. In those 16 years. And the deal was announced in April. It was sealed in July and immediately Sprott did a couple of really intelligent things. The first thing they did was to do a reverse split. I think they did a three to one. It was a two to one or a three to one. I forget it doesn't really matter. It had to get them to this price where there's a number of institutions that, you know, written in their perspectives. You know, they cannot invest in the stock. That's under X price. So you just get it, do a reverse split, bump up the. Automatically that opens you up to new investment capital. So they did that. Step one, step two is they filed for an at the market. Equity financing vehicle, which essentially is it's a vehicle that allows them to issue shares into the open market at will. And they are doing this whenever they are at greater than a 1% premium to nav. So UPC, for example, they could go weeks and weeks at a 10, 15% premium to nav. And it was kind of to their own discretion, whether or not they were going to issue shares. It was a very inefficient vehicle. Now Sprott is doing this. And any time there are greater than 1% premium because they get a 1% fee when they buy uranium. So if they're trading up and there's good volume coming into the market, and they're out of more than web Supreme to now, they're issuing shares into the market. They're raising cash. They raised$90 million in a single day, a few weeks ago. And that launched in the middle of the middle of August of this year, since then, they've raised almost a billion dollars through this ATM and they purchased almost 22 million pounds a year of uranium. So I don't think anybody including Sprott knew that when that first launched that they would have that kind of impact that the, that the spot price would move 50% on only 10 million pounds of uranium. But it did. And so now. Now what's happening. This is kind of a complex thing to explain. I would, I would definitely suggest to you and to your readers or your listeners to check out Segra capital. They have a a commentary tab on their website where it's essentially a blog and one of the capital partners. His name is art. Very very sharp individual has done a lot of work in the sector, wrote a recent piece on this, where he's describing something called a reverse carry trade. And so the carry trade I just described what's happening at least slightly right now. I'm going through this with you because it sort of explains why suppose Sprott just purchased 500,000 pounds in the price. Didn't move. Well, this is why they're also buying off. They're buying and what is called a block trade in exchange for shares. So what they're doing is The Kerry traders who have let's say taken, taken on a contract where they're going to deliver out three years into the future, for example, and the current spot price at the time, let's say it was 25. And they have an obligation to deliver a million pounds of uranium to the utility in 2023, at$30. Okay. And so they go out and they buy that million pounds at 25 bucks in the spot market. They hold it, they carry it, it's on their books. And they carry it. Now what's happening at least did happen for a few brief moments. There was, we have, what's called backwardation in the market where you had the present price of the commodity is higher than the future price of the. It's happened sometimes in commodities markets. So what traders were able to do is they were able to secure delivery of pounds out at the same time that they are they're obligated to deliver in their, in their carry trade contract. From a producer that's currently pending. At a lower price than the current spot price. So then they take the pounds, the carry and they sell it to Sprott and arbitrage. Exactly. So they're making a few bucks a pound on top of the profits. They would've made on their original carry. So that's happening a little bit. And that's, that's the interesting thing about that. And that's something that art Hyde points out in this piece. Is that that's taking pounds from the future. And so even though it's pounds going into the Sprott vehicle without immediately moving the spot price, that's not the way to look at it. The way to look at it is those pounds out. At the point of delivery for that original carry trade contract, they are now buying from a producer and those pounds would have been available to a utility. And now they're not. So. It's brought, you know, every pound that they buy is a net positive for the uranium thesis, but the investment thesis, of course, it's brought a whole new element for the nuclear fuel market to deal with. And annualized, the amount they've been purchasing is, is just insane. You know, you're looking at 75, 80 million pounds of uranium in the 12 month period. If they keep at this pace, I don't think that's going to happen. I think the price will continue to rise. They can buy less from the price is higher, but still even 50 million pounds. That's the entire us nuclear fleet. So it's been a huge game changer in terms of. It accelerates to the thesis. Sure. I'll link the art, hide a piece actually did read that excellent and very well written you know, earlier you said that hedge fund hedge fund people and other finance people have been buying physical uranium. Does that mean they are buying spot or are they buying over-the-counter directly from the miners? What, what does that mean? Both, I would say directly for the minors is probably less because there's, you know, there is some mobile inventory sitting in the can at the conversion facilities and when you buy uranium and you're not an end user, you essentially just change hands on paper. And it just sits with that conversion facility and changes ownership. So there've been hedge funds that have accumulated some uranium over the past few years. I don't think it's huge volumes, but another thing that's happening currently is some of that volume. Some of these funds are selling those. To Sprott in exchange for trust units so that they don't have to carry a physical uranium on their books. Now they carry these highly liquid shares and they have the exact same exposure to the upside of the commodity. So more than likely going forward funds that would have been purchasing physical uranium are likely to purchase shares of spot, but that also leads to physical purchases since you buy shares in that trust in assuming that, you know, you're at a premium to nav and they're issuing. Sure. Sure. You know, another sort of important piece that I think is like a top of mind for a lot of people in uranium is the ongoing narrative around CRDN the Clearwater river Dene nation. I'm not sure if I pronounced that. Right. Could you, could you give me your take on that and sort of explain what that is and how valid that narrative is to the overall context of. Sure. It's, it's valid in that, you know, the, the lands that uranium is being produced from currently, and some of these development projects, exploration projects in Northern Saskatchewan does technically belong to a number of different first nations tribes that are, that have been there forever or for a very long time, let's say. The CRDN issue in particular their land is where NexGen's arrow deposit is visions. Efficiency deposit is the PLS deposit. There's a bunch of explorers in that area. So if that Southwest part of the base and the Patterson lake area, where, where there is of their primary concern and I think. I gotta be careful what I say here, because I don't want to implicate anyone that the, they, they want the mines to be built. It's a creative for them. They have they have multiple benefit agreements in place with multiple countries. And they're fully aware of what's happening currently in the uranium market and, and they want to be compensated for the use of their lands as they should. And so what's happening currently is I mean, in particular with next gen. So they've been in discussions for two years now about coming to an agreement about the development of the. They absolutely want it to happen because it employs a lot of their people. It would be a huge financial benefit to the community. And it would that particular mind as well, that's an underground mine. It doesn't deal with a lot of the stuff that the law of the mines on the Eastern basin deal with, which is major groundwater issues. This is mostly there's very little surface sand stone before they get to the basement hosted rock. And so. Simple mind you geologically speaking, it's deep, but it's simple. It's not going to be a major environmental impact. So they want it to happen. They're pro mining and that's the most important thing that the investment community needs to know. Now, can they throw some sand in the gears and are they waving their hands now saying, Hey, you guys want to move forward with this stuff. We know this bull market is on. We know what's going on. We're not stupid. We're going to need to get something that benefits. From our lands that you want to mind on as they should. So they'll come to an agreement. They want it to happen. They don't want to stop these projects from happening. They just want to be respected and they want to be competent. So the notice is almost like an interesting leverage in negotiation with these companies it's written by lawyers. Yeah. The study that was cited in that notice was actually commissioned and paid for by next gen. So yeah. Got it. Got it. You know, another topic on the supply side is the us. Infrastructure bill just passed. There was some provision for uranium specifically. I think the reaction that I've seen is some positive. Some, some feel that it's validation on their thesis for the U S others feel, you know, not so much, a little more pessimistic about it. Where do you stand on that? W what's your take on the, on the provisions of the infrastructure bill? Well, I think that the most important piece of it in terms of nuclear in the United States has to do with support of the existing reactors. I think expecting an all-out a Renaissance of nuclear builds in the states is not something that's really on the table. And I think that while we had discussions of supportive measures for domestically mined uranium in the past, I think that's still on the table. It's just at this point. So many other things have happened for the investment thesis. It's not even something that, that people are even paying attention to anymore. Cause it was they're proposing buying, you know, one to 2 million pounds a year from domestic production which is currently next to nothing in the states. That'll change when the prices rise and some of these developers can, can get into some contracts with with us utilities and, and utilities abroad. But most importantly, is that the reactors, especially in the deregulated markets where these reactors have to compete with natural gas power and, and that type of energy that can often be produced cheaper, that they have some kind of, you know, financial support from the government. That's saying, okay, it's important. We keep these online. And the government kind of has to do it because, you know, if they're waving their arms about climate change, but they don't want to support the reactors that are by far the biggest contributor to clean it up. It kind of doesn't add up. And I think that people can start to see through that at some point. So it's, I think there was 6 billion in the infrastructure built to support existing plants and two and a half billion for research into advanced reactors and small modular reactors, things like that. So, you know, it's, you know, in the grand scheme of things at the drop in the bucket, but at something, so it's nice to see that there's at least members of the department of energy and members of the Senate of Congress that are saying, we got to keep these. And then he pushed for that, for that budget inclusion. So that's good. I think something interesting that you said earlier is when the spot first launched, they were surprised and everybody was generally surprised by the amount of interest and demand. There was, you know, the open market in retail and by the institutions, et cetera. And I think Twitter plays a role in that. And I think social media plays a role in that. And when I first entered the space, I was reading some theses by many different people. And it would always start off with the fundamentals, like you were saying, like the supply demand, et cetera, but then it would always end by saying, well, there's always a potential for wall street bets to jump in there. Or there's a potential of a very particular subsection of Twitter for them to jump in there and they're going to take it from whatever highs we've already seen to even crazier highs. And that's going to be part of the squeeze. How important do you think that aspect of the thesis is actually like material to the price of Spotify? Affect the spot price. I would say as far as the kind of wall street vet slash Uranian squeeze kind of thing, not at all, that's not at all important. It's not something that we would ever suggest gambling on or expecting to pan out. But that potential for it is. In a similar vein. I think that social media and the speed of communication is hugely important. And so in order for them, I mean really how that crowd works best is, is through squeezing short squeezing. So, and they did that a bit with Dennis and mine's earlier this year, actually in February, they squeezed Dennis and went up, I think a hundred percent in just a few days, the closest. So it it's always possible. It's usually a younger crowd. Most of the time they're typically trading on apps like Robin hood and things like that, that only at this point have access to the NYC and the NASDAQ. So for them to go after the Sprott physical uranium trust, I technically they can corner on the OTC mark. But you know, it's, it helps it can help, but it's not important at all for the overall thesis. But with all of that said in a comparison with the previous book, The speed of communication is so drastically different than it was even in 2006, 2007, with the advent of smartphones, just, you know, just after that market. And then just the, the amount of money that's circulating now compared to then is, is way, way more as well. So there's so much more money flowing. And there is so much faster communication and many more people investing in speculating. So the appetite for for volatile investments has grown, let's say. Right. Right. And actually the other super interesting thing about uranium Twitter specifically is when I first got into the space everybody was sort of aligned in their mission and what, what they focused on, but over time with more and more players coming in. It has sort of fractured, like there are different groups that believe in different things. And now I'm seeing a little bit more, I want to say conflict, but at least disagreement on different theses and different tickers. And I wonder is that ultimately bullish for uranium because you know, you have, you have so many differentiated opinions that everybody, you know, it's like iron makes iron Trumper like steel MC steel sharper. Is it, is that, is that how we should be looking at it? Or is it bad that, you know, some people might be going towards more dogmatic views when it comes to. No, I don't think it's bad. I mean, I think that people could be more civil generally speaking. I mean, the, the uranium Twitter community, for the most part, since I've been on, has been extremely civil and helpful. I've met unbelievably intelligent people that have taught me a lot of I've had some incredible conversations and connection through Twitter. So it's still an unbillable. Beneficial place to be when it comes to investing in communities, especially for uranium. Yeah, I think that there's always going to be viewpoints that are opposing and I think it's good for those to be hashed out. I'm not part of that is what kind of spurred this piece that was written by, by Mr. Hyde. So it's like it's it's so it's good to see it makes a market right. To have opposing views. And ultimately when it comes down to. I think that the social media communities on Twitter or Reddit or whatever, they have an impact, but you know, when it comes down to it, it's going to be the really big institutions that have so much more power to move markets. You know, you can have 50,000 people on uranium, Twitter, and you can have just a couple of institutions come in, heavy handed, buy, buy into the ETFs and buy into the Sprott physically Rainium trust with a couple of hundred million pounds. And the liquidity is there or a dollar. All of a sudden you get a massive move in the, in the sector. So it affects things. I think that discourse is healthy and it's important to try to poke holes in each other's discourses and, and see where we might be wrong, where we might be. Right. There's always something to be learned from somebody else. So it's, it's nice to see. Sure. So going back to the demand side of things, I think there is a lot of differentiated opinion on how much demand there really is. And I think you pointed out some fundamentals, but what piece on the demand side are people missing that you feel is maybe not more widely talked about or widely realized? I think the piece of demand side that people are missing is difficult to quantify and estimate, and that would be a restocking of. So it's, it's goes against what, what makes sense for most people to consider, which is uranium, you buy a lot of utilities load up on uranium when the price is low and they, and they, they let it go and the price is high and it's not really something utilities really trade. So I think that a restocking of inventory, even though the inventory is. Roughly, you know, around the average where they are generally speaking, right? The us has right around two years, maybe a little bit under two years of inventory, average per, per utility or per reactor. The the EU utilities usually have to keep at least three years, but when things start to get scarce is when the restocking really happens. And I think that that's. That's something that's difficult to bake into any sort of supply and demand model, but it's something that can be expected if, and when we see a point where the utilities actually are concerned about keeping their reactor up and running, if they're uncovered out into the future, they pay what they need to pay to make sure their inventory are both. And another demand piece, I think is really interesting that is kind of newer news that I think most people are not necessarily giving enough weight to, is this this establishment of this ANU energy, which is this physical uranium fund that was just established in Kazakhstan. And it was seed funded partially by cause Adam prom partially by the national bank of Kazakh, Stan with initial 50 million combined. But they're going to do a follow on round the 500. And I think that there, the potential for there to be huge, huge investor appetite for a fund like this in the east is. Understated. So if, if they can continue to raise a lot of money and purchase physical uranium, that's coming out of cause Adam prom primarily, or some of their JVs, I should say Kazakh, Stan, or it was Becca, Stan. This is supply that, you know, cause I had a problem. Half of their supply goes to China, just straight up, like full stop. The rest of it. They've got a bunch of JVs with uranium, one with Orono, with Chinese. So whatever's left over. They've been the most. Consistent reliable supplier of uranium for many, many years. So now. A physical, financially driven fund in the east that has an appetite for uranium produced in the east. That just, that could be a big game changer. Then it's just one more piece to that demand, puzzle that again, it's hard. You, how do you justify how to, how to table the amount of demand is going to come from that? I have no idea. How do you put that into a model? You can't really, but. 500 million. What is that going to be another 10 million pounds next year? What if they do that? Every year? That's 10 million pounds of demand out of 185 million for the entire world over the course of the year. It's significant. So that's something that has big potential to, to, to shake things up. Got it, got it. I think the word squeeze is super interesting because it suggests that we have this rapid rise and then. At least some sort of fall, if not rapid, but a fall to some average or some mean let's say that this thesis does play out and over the course of a year or the next 18 months, what signal are you looking at to tell you that? This is the top. To signal the top of the, of the overall bull market? Yes. Well, there's a few pieces. Interestingly enough with Sprott. One of the pieces that we would consider that we would have considered would be hedge funds, selling their uranium back into the market. Now that it's likely that a number of the hedge funds had already purchased uranium have, or will sell their uranium distraught in exchange for trust units. It's unlikely that that's going to be a major signal and Sprott is not going to be a seller. So they're, they're a buy and hold fund. So that's a signal that kind of, that we've lost. Unfortunately. If we see a hard spike of the spot price above the term price, that's something that you have to watch out for because it typically doesn't last. And so, and it might cause a speculative, you know, fury in the, in the equities markets and that's something really to look for. If we see that hard spike on the spot over term During euphoric moves and the equities along with euphoric moves in the spot price, then you start to look for technical signals of that breaking down for us. And that's just basic technical analysis in in the Sprott physical uranium trust will be one of them because they stay so close to their net asset value. That they really will be a good marker for tracking the price of the commodity. So if you see that ticker start to roll over you know, if you see, if you see that fall down below the 50 day, moving average, after a euphoric move up, that feels and looks unsustainable. And, you know, as, as being driven by financial interests, that would be a moment to take some off the table. And yeah, it's, it's, it's supposedly charts breaking down. Of course we always recommend that treat individual patient positions individually because they, they do act differently. Let's see what else. Those are kind of the main signals that we're looking for. Primarily, we're looking for an overshoot of the spot price of the term price and have a, have a technical breakdown after a euphoric move that is not driven by, let's say classic. Market fundamentals, more of speculations. Sure, sure. And you know, the sentiment that I've got from you so far is that you're still heavily bullish. In the last week we've seen somewhat of a. Decent selloff, I would say. So considering that, and I, you know, I kept reading about seasonality, seasonality, seasonality, I guess, what impact is seasonality having? It sounds like there is no seasonality. And as of right now, are you waiting for the knife to keep falling? Is there a knife that's falling or are you a heavy buyer? Oh, I've been buying, I've been heavily buying the past week and a half. Yeah. No, I mean, there still is an aspect of seasonality. The interesting part about seasonality this year. Usually the drivers of that seasonality are, you know, twofold one it's the U S utilities have a renewed budget October 1st. And there's a number of nuclear fuel conferences that happen in the autumn. You have the WNA that happened in September. Then you have the NTI that happens in October. And then there was just another one. So there's a lot of the utilities they meet with other industry players with other utilities, they kind of discuss their plans, but what's happening right now is that utilities are recognizing what's going on with this broad vehicle. And they're sort of like sitting out with the spot market. And so I still think that we see a strong end to the seasonality move. And as far as is it happening or not? I mean, the ETFs are up 20% since October one. So even with this sell off. That's a good move, you know, over the course of six weeks. So as far as I'm, when I look at the charts and zoom out a little bit, it's like seasonal is absolutely happening. This looks to me like a higher, low that we're making in the markets. Of course, there's always a chance that it sells off more. My opinion it's sold off more than I was expecting, but it's not really a concern. It's a buying opportunity for anybody. That's kind of late to the game are still adding their positions in my opinion. So yeah, I think that, I think I've been sick since brought, came on the scene. I've expected a I I've I've changed my vision of the market of being a two to four year healthier, slower bull market to being more of a one to two year faster split speculation followed by a long grinding bull market. Now, now what I'm thinking, as far as. Hedge funds selling some of their uranium distraught in exchange for, for trust units and potentially some carry traders doing that reverse trade. It's likely that we'll see some more material come in for Sprott, and it might not be as violent to the upside, which would mean a longer, more drawn out bull market, which in my opinion is way healthier. It's less exciting from a speculative state standpoint as less volatile. But it's healthier for the, for the uranium market. It's healthier for the nuclear market. The last spike that happened in 22,607, it happened so fast that all of these developers were just desperately trying to get their projects financed and built so they could sell into it. And, and almost none of them did. I think one mine got built to the point where I could actually come into production in time only to have the price just turning drop back down from 134 bucks a pound back down into the sixties and seventies. So Yeah, I think I mean the short term is always difficult to predict for the uranium market. So we try not to do that too much. But what we generally recommend what I've been recommending since August, or really since the beginning of this year, especially since the announcement of Sprott is if the market gives you sell offs, hang on. If you're fully positioned and if you're not take advantage of it. So that's what I've been doing personally. Nice. Yeah. I mean, stay away from the short dated call offs. Yes. Yes, absolutely. Absolutely long dated call options. We've been doing these bullish vertical call spreads that have worked extremely well, but they have much less risk than the short dated call option. Justin, this has been great. I like to end every interview by asking a pretty open-ended question, which is what is a topic in this particular field you feel isn't discussed enough is discussed incorrectly or hasn't gotten enough exposure. And this is sort of in line with the demand question I asked earlier, but more open-ended from the investing side or from the nuclear, like nuclear Martin energy side. Nuclear energy side. I would say what isn't discussed enough is how safely and how well waste is stored and how, how less of an issue it is than most people believe. I think that that's any time I even speak with somebody who's pro-nuclear, that's like just everyday, you know, conversation at a dinner party or something. And they asked me what I do. We talked talking about nuclear energy. Like, oh, I'm so behind it that it's just, man. What about the waste? And then I tell them that all of the ways that were produced in the United States, since the fifties can be stored on a single football field, 30 feet high, and they go really. And there's never been an accident with nuclear waste in the states. Really? Yeah. It's stored extremely safely, highly, highly, regularly. What is in the news is that the United States hasn't come to an agreement on a central storage facility, which they've been pushing, you know, to put an in Nevada in Nevada is like, yeah, we don't want to hear. So I think that that, that issue is largely under-discussed in terms of nuclear market. The other thing is that in terms of renewables, that most people don't understand. Renewables. If they make up more than a certain percentage of the grid essentially require more fossil fuels they, they require a backup energy source to be able to cycle up and down when the sun's not shining, the wind's not blowing. So the renewables have their place. I'm not anti. But I'm definitely anti making renewables 50% of the grid because you have to have a backup source of energy. And so and some of the new nuclear technologies and some of these SMRs have technology built in or where they can, they can cycle up and down far easier than the larger traditional reactors. So that's really cool. But yeah, the nuclear thing, if you close a nuclear plant, fossil fuels got to pick up the pieces. So, and most people don't understand that from the investing side. I would say that people need to do more work when it comes to what to buy. I think that you really need to look at the share structure of a company and that's something that most investors, most retail investors never do. They, they read the, you know, the online presentation and they see that it's you know, maybe it hasn't performed as well as the others. So it's got to make up for lost time, you know, it's it's, it has a smaller market cap, or I've got this guy that I've got that guy on the team they're right next to this other. And those sorts of things are kind of like the cute things to look for on the presentation, but you really have to look at the Sheriff's structure, how the company is structured in terms of the free float, in terms of the insider ownership institutional. How many outstanding Morrison options there are and how that might affect the stock going forward. And yeah, and then the ETF flows, it's all about flows. Valuations don't matter anymore. They just don't look at Tesla. Look at ribbon that doesn't matter. You know, you look at the AMC, some of these wall street bet, squeezes, valuations don't matter anymore. It's, it's a fun flow of funds story, and that's likely going to have these pullbacks. We're going to have these pullbacks, but it's going to continue to increase. Got it. Got it. Actually, I just, I just remembered something. I don't know if you've heard about Dorian I'm luxury. You've heard of 3m. Is that a legitimate, I guess over 15 year period, as many, is that a legitimate competitor to nuclear energy? Is that something that can be an actual substitute to nuclear, a better substitute to nuclear? You know, that's, that's a tough one and I don't necessarily have the best answer for that. I think it's still something that's being worked on. I think that it has a lot of. I believe that there is technology that involves using both 3m and uranium in the same reactor. I don't know if Dorian can replace uranium and the reactors that are already constructed. I don't believe it can, without some modifications, I could be wrong on that, but I'm not a nuclear engineer. But I do know that it holds promise and it's still, there's definitely still research and work being done into it. I think that there's a future for Florian. So I think that, for example, like the Chinese that are having these build-out plans for having 200 gigawatts of nuclear in my, from my understanding, that's all, it's all uranium with their builds that they're planning. So I don't see it as a disruptor necessarily to be investing thesis. But I think that there's great promise for throwing them in the future for sure. Great, great, Justin, thanks again for coming on. You can find justin@uraniuminsider.com. Sounds good. Thank you..