SAM ARRON CHECKS IN (SCPOLICYCOUNCIL.ORG) 6/9/26

Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:13

That's right. And we're speaking with Sam Aron of the SCPolicyCouncil.org. He's a research analyst. Good morning.

SPEAKER_04 0:21

Good morning. Good to be with you guys.

SPEAKER_01 0:23

Yes, thanks for joining us. So what are you thinking about the integrity of our elections as people are heading off to the polls today?

SPEAKER_04 0:31

Well, it's going to be kind of interesting to see how it shakes out. It's been kind of a consistent pattern for a while now that Democrats typically vote during early voting, and then Republicans are more election day voters. And that's kind of the trend that we've seen so far through the majority of counties across South Carolina. One that did kind of surprise me though, Lexington County had more Democrats early vote than the Republicans. And this is a pretty solidly Republican district. So I was kind of surprised to see more Democrats turn out in that early election. But I think it's a really interesting race. I don't think they've changed.7, then uh Rom Raddy at 17.5, Ralph Norman at 15.9, and then Nancy.

SPEAKER_01 2:34

But that means that 80% are not in agreement with Trump. Exactly.

SPEAKER_04 2:43

There was an election that didn't really get a lot of uh a lot of a lot of media coverage last week that was in Iowa. And Iowa had a Republican primary, and the Trump endorsed candidate lost uh in in this primary versus, you know, uh a guy who was kind of he kind of built himself as like a uh a Maha, like make America healthy again kind of candidate. You know, he's talking about like glyphosate and all that kind of stuff. Um and and he beat out the Trump endorsed candidate. So I mean, like the uh a Trump endorsement matters, but I think it matters a lot more whenever you're talking about, you know, a a national election, when you're talking about Congress, when you're talking about Senate, versus when you're talking about a governor. And I mean, South Carolina has a a very, very long history of not really listening to the federal government and not really caring what the federal government has to say. Um, so the the endorsement from Trump for I I think it moved the needle for some, but I don't know if it moved the needle for enough. Um, you know, I think that it's it's give it's probably gonna be enough to keep her in that in that first position uh in the kind of 1A, one, one B category to get her into a runoff. But the question is gonna be then, who do you who who does the voter then go with in the runoff? Because I think that, you know, the way that the race has been built so far is that you have kind of three lanes, right? But I'll say I'll uh I'll I'll say three lanes for now. And you have, you know, uh the current lieutenant governor, which this would just kind of be a continuation of of uh Mc McMasters administration, right? Kind of the succession of that. Then you have A. G. Wilson that's kind of he's he's almost doing a a like return to normalcy kind of thing, you know. I I think that Alan Wilson has done a lot of uh really good job, uh a really good job of not necessarily leading on every single issue, but being solidly in second on all of this. You know, I mean I think that there's there's some candidates that have some some good positions, but then they have a couple that are kind of like iffy, right? Like uh particularly uh Russ Norman comes to mind, who he he has a lot of great answers about you know stopping you know taxpayer waste, but then he loses me on the judges, right? With with the voting of judges, because I think that that's just a a really rough way to to pick judges. Uh yeah, I don't think you want Republican and Democrat judges running. That's kind of you know that introduces a lot of variables that we currently don't have. Granted, our our system is still messed up. Um so you've got the lieutenant governor and then the attorney general, and then you kind of have the other three, right? You have uh Ron Reddy, Ralph Norman, and Nancy Mays, who are all kind of trying to pick that anti-establishment lane. So if one of them can sneak in and and get into that runoff against uh the lieutenant governor, yeah, I think it's gonna be a really interesting race because I imagine the support between those three individuals is gonna collapse into one. Um so so that's really what what's gonna be. Granted, if it's a if it's a Pamela Alan Wilson, then I I don't really know who who's I I don't know anybody who's currently supporting, you know, a a Rom Reddy or a Ralph Norman that would be like, I'm gonna switch teams and go over and vote for uh the current lieutenant government. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 5:55

You know what that's if they're going so far rebel to say, you know, Rom Reddy or Ralph Norman or Nancy Mace, then they're never voting Evit. Never.

SPEAKER_04 6:07

That's I I think you're right. I think they could obviously be tempted to go over to the Alan Wilson camp, but not as much as an endorsement of him, but as a repudiation of her, if that makes sense.

SPEAKER_01 6:18

I agree with you on that for sure. Um and Nick, I mean, chime in if there are any comments that you'd like to share of your own or on the budget blind's text line. We're speaking with Sam Aron of the SC Policy Council.

SPEAKER_03 6:32

Here is an example of really the only person that I've seen this mourning so far. They say Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evitt is going to prevail on voting for her. Rom is too dogmatic. But everybody else has been anti-establishment. And it's either been we've even had one Nancy Mace, but everybody else has been pretty much rebel, Rom ready.

SPEAKER_01 6:55

Yeah.

SPEAKER_03 6:55

For the most part.

SPEAKER_01 6:56

Yeah. Like you said, we have a history well, I say we, I'm not from here originally, but South Carolina has a history of being the rebel, right?

SPEAKER_04 7:06

That's right. You know, I mean there's something to be said for South Carolinians not really wanting to be told what to do. Um, and I think that that has been proved continuously throughout history. You can even look to just a couple weeks ago with the redistricting, with you know, several senators saying, look, we're not gonna take the marching orders from Washington. Uh which, you know, you can agree or disagree with the redistricting, but that's that's deep in South Carolina history and saying, you know what, the federal government can go kick rocks. I don't really care what they have to say. Um talking about the race, though, another I think another interesting race is gonna be the uh the Senate race. You know, right now Lindy Graham, according according to that most recent poll, he's sitting at 49.2, so it's gonna be really interesting to see if he can avoid that runoff. Um, you know, the the president is leveraging all of his power to try and ensure that he does not uh get into a runoff. Um but I I think really the question is gonna be how many how many young voters are are gonna turn out. You know, when you look at a Republican primary, you're typically looking at older voters, typically looking at like Boomers and above that are that are partaking in elections. And you know, I think the the president's endorsement of LindyGram, as well as the constant uh pack spending that you see on Fox News, I think that stuff works on them. I don't think it works on the the generations below that as as much. Um so it's gonna be a turnout issue. It's gonna be how many people are turning out against it. But you know, uh Mark Lynch has been an interesting candidate in himself too because he's making the pitch to boomers as a boomer. You know what I mean? Like he's not saying like I'm this young buck who's about to come up here and shake things up. He's saying, like, look, I'm one of you, and I don't like Lindsay Graham, you know? Um, which that option hasn't really been out there so far. Uh so I that that's another one that I'm watching that I'm very interested to see how it shakes out.

SPEAKER_01 8:57

You know, I I was watching uh I was gonna play it, but why bother? Uh Senator Tim Scott um talking to Sean Hannity left. I mean, they're all just so in the tank for Lindsey Graham. It is disgusting. I mean, I I know you maybe you cannot comment on that, but I'm just saying, I mean, it's so disgusting. And and they're going, you must and then they have a telerally and they're they're all just begging South Carolinians to comply. And it's like it's like masks all over again. Like, you know, just hold your nose and just do it, you know, do it for the good, the greater good. And I'm like, what is happening here? Am I like in the twilight zone? I've never seen anything so horrible. And I wouldn't vote for Tim Scott anyway. And and so now I got Tim Scott, you know, um telling me to go vote for Lindsay. It's it's it's like I feel like I'm literally in the twilight zone here. Like, are we not paying attention to everything that's happened in this state? Oh my god.

SPEAKER_04 9:59

Yeah, it is somewhat hilarious, you know, because the the the whole pitch is like we need Republicans in the Senate and in the Congress. Like, that's the pitch that you know the president and all of the the Republican, you know, talking heads have for you. Um but does anyone right now think that like the issue that Donald Trump has in office is a lack of you know support in the Congress and in the Senate? I mean, like, his problem is the rhinos, the fake ones.

SPEAKER_01 10:25

These his problem are the fake Republicans.

SPEAKER_04 10:28

Exactly. And I I mean, like, I I I just think it's such an asinine notion that uh the problem is he's receiving too much pushback in Congress and too much pushback in the Senate. I mean, like, the the Republicans in Congress will do whatever he asks. Like, I mean, it doesn't matter because they understand like the power of the endorsement, which brings us back to, you know, this this race that had just happened in Iowa and our governor's race. I mean, like, it's if South Carolina send a message to DC and say that endorsement doesn't move the needle, that's that might actually change things for for national politics for for how the president looks at at his endorsement. You know, in the past he's just been dull them out left and right because you know his track record was very solid. But now if he's got you know one one bad race that he's picked and one bad endorsement, I I I think that could, you know, make him a little more apprehensive to release that endorsement in the future.

SPEAKER_01 11:22

Well Sam, my the the most telling thing in this whole endorsement debacle in South Carolina is that he endorsed Congressman Russell Frye for June 9th. He isn't on the ballot. He doesn't have a challenger, he doesn't need an endorsement. That is a telltale sign that Trump is not paying attention.

SPEAKER_04 11:48

Yeah, I mean it's it's it's a hilarious concept if you think about it. Like, I mean, like, with all of the problems that he has up in Washington right now, exactly it's hilarious that, you know, a South Carolinian can be convinced that like, oh, this guy knows about you know our gubernatorial primary. Not even the race, the primary. Like, I mean, like, I'm sorry, but I I refuse to believe that. Yeah, it's all Henry.

SPEAKER_01 12:12

It's all Henry.

SPEAKER_04 12:14

Yeah. Something something like that. You know, I don't know. It it could be I you know, the the the one thing about uh about Washington is as as Dorf Carlton said, it's a big club and you're not in it. You know, so I don't know.

SPEAKER_05 12:28

We agree.

SPEAKER_03 12:29

That's one of our favorite quotes.

SPEAKER_04 12:31

Yeah, I mean, look, I I don't know who who asked who for for the endorsement. Um, but you could tell that every single you know person who was in the primary was buying for it. They all wanted it because they understand the power of it. Um so you know, it's it's gonna be interesting. I'm gonna be watching closely. Uh, I know that uh our the SC Policy Council's CEO, Michael, who'll be on um one of the Fox Calid, doing some color commentary on the election. So I'd encourage your viewers to check that out. You know what I would love to know?

SPEAKER_01 13:02

What is Governor Henry McMaster's approval rating? I would love to know that. Because that guy sucks.

SPEAKER_04 13:12

Yeah, I mean, it's an interesting question. I think that um I think that a lot of people just don't really know, you know, and and he's kind of he's kind of low-key about the whole thing. Like he doesn't really he's not driving a whole lot of policy at this stage in the game, which is um which is you know kind of unfortunate because the as you guys know the the executive doesn't have a whole lot of power to begin with. So, you know, the the best thing you can do is be talking all the time.

SPEAKER_03 13:37

I found a poll, the most recent poll is from November, and it shows that he holds a 50% approval rating and 72 overall favorability rating, and that was going back to November.

SPEAKER_01 13:50

Not bad.

SPEAKER_03 13:51

That's it.

SPEAKER_01 13:52

Not bad.

SPEAKER_04 13:53

Yeah, that that sounds about right.

SPEAKER_01 13:55

And that's after COVID, after what he did.

SPEAKER_04 13:59

Sorry, go ahead.

SPEAKER_01 14:00

I'm saying, and that was after what he did to us during COVID. And so I just I don't get it. Um people have a short memory.

SPEAKER_03 14:08

Well, look at New York, yes, they do.

SPEAKER_01 14:10

Yeah, look at that. Look at they voted in. Jeez.

SPEAKER_04 14:13

Well, say I want to say the last time we polled it is we we pulled them together, you know, with like the legislature and the governor amongst Republican voters, how how they approved of it. And I want to say it was like some like 60 percent, uh upper sixties maybe.

SPEAKER_01 14:27

Yeah. Yeah. And it's not but you know, I mean, you guys are always you know, uh keeping an eye out on what the legislature is doing, and they keep saying, well, the governor doesn't have as much power, and the lieutenant governor is a do-nothing position, so what do you expect them to do? And it's like I don't I'm I can't imagine that the governor is so weak that we can turn into a tyrannical state during COVID and then just move on and be like, it's okay. We were only knocked out as the other state. We're only closed a little. We were open.

SPEAKER_04 15:04

But force them to like prove that they're tyrants. You know what I mean? Like if if if you can't do anything, right? If you don't have enough authority, that's fine. Make them override your veto. You know what I mean? Like, like make them do it. Make them make them have a vote on the record to them like that.

SPEAKER_01 15:17

We are still on the same page.

SPEAKER_02 15:18

I know, but I I feel like he stands around, but I uh I uh I got a veto.

unknown 15:23

No.

SPEAKER_02 15:24

Oh, sorry, too late.

SPEAKER_01 15:26

Yeah, right. That was like the special session. That was like for the redistricting. Are you kidding me? That was so obvious he was just doing it to just say face, but he knew it was never going to fly. He had plenty of time to redistrict. All right, Sam. Sorry, we're just angry. But thanks for playing. We'll talk to you next time. Thank you so much. We'll talk to you next time.