Safe Dividend Investing
Safe Dividend Investing
Podcast 217- TEN Outstanding Stocks -VIPOR ENERGY -CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES -ROGERS COMMUNICATIONS
Welcome to Podcast 217of Safe Dividend Investing on the 19th of April of 2025.
Be sure to visit the written transcript attached this podcast to find more information on each stock that was scored.
You may also want visit Podcast 210 where in that printed transcript, you will find Chapter 4 from my investment guidebooks. It explains, in easily understood language, how the IDM stock scoring system works. Using this information you can manually score any stock you encounter. The IDM stock scoring software that I provide to those who purchase my investment guide books is derived from this chapter. The software just makes scoring stocks faster and easier.
The first 190 Safe Dividend Investing podcasts answered hundreds of questions about stocks that I had received from my podcast listeners and the readers of my other publications. Starting with Podcast 191 the the weekly podcasts have usually dealt with identifying the week's 10 dividend stocks whose recent exceptional share price growth on the New York and Toronto stock exchanges may have made them worth considering as possible portfolio acquisitions. It is also an opportunity for me to bring to the listeners attention information that I think may assist them in creating and managing their self-directed stock portfolio.
At www.informus.ca for information you can learn more about my six investment guide books.
IAN
imacd@informus.ca
Ian Duncan MacDonald
Author, Artist, Commercial Risk Consultant,
President of Informus Inc
2 Vista Humber Drive
Toronto, Ontario
Canada, M9P 3R7
Toronto Telephone - 416-245-4994
New York Telephone - 929-800-2397
imacd@informus.ca
Safe Dividend Investing-
Greetings to listeners all around the world. Welcome to Safe Dividend Investing’s Podcast # 217, on the19th of April, 2025. My name is Ian Duncan MacDonald.
In the first 190 Podcasts of Safe Dividend Investing, you can find answers to hundreds of investment questions.
Starting with Podcast 191 the podcast format was changed. I now bring to your attention each week, the 5 U.S. and the 5 Canadian high dividend stocks whose share prices gained the most this week. This involves using selectors to bring the number of qualifying stocks down to the ten that qualify.
All 10 stocks are scored and the detailed scoring matrix for each stock appears in the written transcript of each podcast. A stock’s score is calculated out of a possible 100. The highest score I have ever calculated out of the thousands I have scored is an 86. The lowest was 3. The higher the score the stronger the stock. I personally prefer stocks scoring over 50 in my portfolio. However, it is important that a high score also be accompanied by a history of rising share prices and dividend payouts to be exceptionally attractive.
Note: In Podcast 210 you can see how scores are calculated for each data element and why these scoring elements were chosen. This information can allow you to manually score any stock you encounter.
U.S STOCK SELCTORS USED THIS WEEK
Only common shares are considered in selecting stocks. Preferred shares are ignored.
A dividend yield percent selector of 6% or more was applied.
The next selector used was the number of shares traded of the company’s stock exceeding I,000,000 shares.
Those remaining stocks with operating margins exceeding 14% was applied.
All remaining stocks with share prices exceeding $30.10 further reduced the numbers.
The final selector was those stocks whose share price gain in the last week exceeded 5%. This left us with the following 5 qualifying US stocks who were then scored
- Viper Energy (VNOM) Score 70
- Hess Midstream (HESM) Score 63
- Crown Castle Inc (CCI) Score 45
- Kilroy Realty Corporation (KRC) 67
- BXP Inc (BXP) Score 57
CANADIAN STOCK SELCTORS USED THIS WEEK
Only common shares are considered in selecting stocks. Preferred shares are ignored.
A dividend yield percent of 5 % or more was applied.
The next selector used were those stocks whose number of shares traded exceeded 37,000.
The remaining stocks with an operating margins exceeding 1% was used next.
Stocks whose share prices exceeded $20.25 further reduced the numbers.
The final selector was those stock whose share price gain in the last week exceeded 5%. This left us with the following 5 qualifying Canadian stocks who were then scored using the IDM stock scoring software:
1.South Bow Corporation (SOBO) Score 47.
2. Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) Score 69.
3. Rogers Communications Inc (RCI.B) Score 61.
4. Topaz Energy Corporation (TPZ) Score 50.
5. Cogeco Communications Inc (CCA) Score 49.
DISPLAY OF US STOCK SCORE CALCULATIONS
S7.16TK = Stock Symbol 1 = Price $ 2 = 4yr ago Price $ 3= $ book value 4= advisor buys # 5= advisor strong buys # 6= div. yield % 7=operating margin % 8 = trade volume # 9 = P/E ratio
STOCK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8__9
| VNOM | 41.37 | 17.23 | 8.95 | 10 | 1 | 6.02 | 65.83 | 2M | 11.3x
| HESM | 37.53 | 22.28 | 2.43 | 2 | 0 | 7.21 | 61.45 | 1M | 15.1x
| CCI | 103.59 | 187.18 | -0.30 | 7 | 7 | 6.04 | -44.7 | 2M | -11.5x
| KRC | 31.70 | 97.03 | 45.49 | 3 | 0 | 6.79 | 24.96 | 2M | 18.0x
| BXP | 63.88 | 106.05 | 34.22 | 7 | 0 | 6.14 | 29.54 | 1M | 666.9
DISPLAY OF CANADIAN SCORE CALCULATIONS
STK = Stock Symbol 1 = Price $ 2= 4yr ago Price $ 3= $ book value 4= advisor buys # 5= advisor strong buys # 6= div. yield % 7=operating margin % 8 = trade volume # 9 = P/E ratio
STOCK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
| SOBO | 34.03 | 0 | 17.38 | 1 | 0 | 8.46 | 37.47 | 668K | 16.2x
| CNQ | 39.88 | 18.44 | 18.77 | 5 | 1 | 5.89 | 27.28 | 20M | 12.0x
| RCI.B | 35.84 | 61.07 | 19.40 | 1 | 4 | 5.58 | 27.30 | 1M | 11.1x
| TPZ | 23.28 | 14.62 | 8.58 | 7 | 0 | 5.55 | 29.93 | 220K | 75.0x
| CCA | 65.69 | 118.2 | 70.57 | 2 | 0 | 5.61 | 22.88 | 53K | 8.5x
HIGHS AND LOWS
While scoring these US and Canadian stocks I found the following interesting:
The most expensive stock was < Crown Castle >at <$103.59 >and <Topaz Energy Corporation > was the least expensive at <$23.28 >.
The most buy recommendations by analysts were for <Viper Energy> with<10 > and the least number of recommendations were for < one> for both <South Bow Corporation<and <Rogers Communications>.
However <Rogers Communications> had <4 strong buy recommendations>. Only 2 other stocks each had one strong buy recommendation.
The highest Book Value was for<Cogeco Communications> at <$70.57> and the lowest was for < Crown Castle Inc> with a <minus 0.31>
The highest number of shares traded was < 20> with < 20 million>for <Canadian Natural Resources> by <Canadian Natural Resources> and the lowest number of traded was < Cogeco Communications Inc > with <53,000 >.
The highest operating margin was for < Viper Energy> at<65.83%> and the lowest was for <Crown Castle Inc > at <minus 44...7>.
The best price-to-earningearnings ratio of <8.5x > was for< Cogeco Communications> and the highest was a <666.9 x >for <BXP Inc with a 669.9x >,> while <Crown Castle> had a <minus11.5>.minus 11.5x.
The stock with the highest IDM score of <70 > was <Viper Energy>. The lowest score was a <45>for < Crown Castle >.Inc>
The weekly recording of the outstanding share price gain stocks in both the US and Canada started on November 23rd of 2024. The highest scoring stock recorded since then has been Civitas Resources with a score of 86. The lowest score recorded was a 34 by both Minerosa SA and Fiera Capital . Over these 15 weeks Enbridge, Endeavour Mining and Telus have each appeared in the weekly lists in 5 different times. Most stocks appeared only once during the 15 weeks.
A spread sheet tracking stock appearances each week is being kept. Tracking the 10 outstanding stocks each week has disclosed surprising information about outstanding stocks.
If you have not already obtained the stock scoring software that I supply free to those who purchase my investment guidebooks (which are available by searching for “Ian Duncan MacDonald Books Amazon.com., Visit my website www.informus.caif you wish to learn more about safe investing. For those who don’t read books that website can give you a basic understanding of a safer approach to selecting and buying stocks.
FEAR OF LOSING ALL YOUR INVESTMENT MONEY
Many who would like to invest in the stock market do not because they fear losing all the money that they would invest. When asked how I overcame my fear of investing in stocks, I assure them that it is impossible to lose all your money in the stock market if you carefully invest the way I do. This means investing equally in 20 financially strong companies, paying dividends greater than 5% with long histories of ever rising share prices and dividend payouts.
Yes, a few of the share prices of the 20 stocks I have purchased may drop below my purchase price for periods of time while others may double or triple in value at the same time. What is important is the portfolio’s total results not its individual stocks.
My lack of fear of losing all my money is based on my fifty years in developing commercial risk scoring systems. They predicted which of the 2 million businesses in my database would fail to pay their suppliers. I saw that while 20% may have been slow in paying over 95% of the 2,000,000 companies eventually paid their suppliers in full.
The typical supplier had thousands of customers. The chances of a large percentage of their customers not paying them was so small that when it did happen the supplier would write the account off to bad debt and see it as a cost of doing business. They recognized that if they had zero bad debt that their credit granting policies were too tight and they were losing out in making sales. Their extreme caution would ultimately hurt their profits. In the same way you cannot make a profitable income from stocks if you are not invested.
While they were extending perhaps hundreds of thousands of dollars in credit to a new customer, these commercial risk managers had very limited data to consult in making their risk decisions. A stock investor has access to a hundred times more free, easily accessible data to base their risk decisions on.
All my publications and my stock scoring software are devoted to showing investors where to find and use this free, easily accessed risk information on stocks. It takes only a few minutes to do a basic risk assessment of a stock.
Why does stock risk analysis work? It works because human beings are creatures of habit. Human beings make the revenue and expense decisions that result in a company making a profit. Dividends are paid out of profits. By looking at the trends of share prices and dividend payouts of a company over many years, you can see the engrained profitable habits of companies.
Unfortunately, the perfect stock does not exist. You must still use some judgment to pick what you believe are the “best” dividend stocks for your portfolio. There is always some compromise between maximizing financial strength and maximizing dividend income.
The stock scoring software I supply to my book readers is a big help in making a stock value compromise. I believe that the only way anyone could possibly lose all their money on the stock market is because their portfolios were not sufficiently diversified, and they did not spend the few minutes it takes to determine the strength of each stock they added to their portfolio.
BACKGROUND
Investment companies work hard to convince the public that they could never invest profitably without allowing the financial industry to nibble away at a client’s life savings for the rest of their lives. The objective of advisors is to transfer as much money from your pocket to the pocket of the financial institution that employs them.
I knew 24 years ago that I had to find a better way to invest when I saw a $300,000 loss in the mutual funds an investment advisor had put my life savings into. Since then, I have learned if you are patient and disciplined you can easily grow your portfolio as a self-directed investor without paying hundreds of thousands of dollars in fees over your lifetime to the investment industry parasites. This is a drain on the money invested to make you money.
My early research quickly showed me that most investors are speculators who see their wealth destroyed when their bet on a stock increasing in price falls below their purchase price and they sell it. With such speculative churning encouraged by the investment industry, it seemed obvious to me that no one can accurately predict future share prices.
I became a successful self-directed investor by carefully selecting and buying 20 strong, high dividend stocks through my bank’s online self-directed investment platform.
Why have I never been disappointed in my income or my capital gain from my 20 stocks? Because my financially strong stocks have paid ever increasing dividend payments out of their company profits.
While share prices are determined by impulsive speculators making guesses, my dividend payouts are the result of the wise revenue and expense decisions of the experienced managers of the companies whose shares I own.
By looking at free, accessible records that go back for decades, anyone can easily see before they buy a share how that stock’s fluctuating share price has had little or no impact on a stock’s rising dividend payouts.
What do I do when a market crash comes along, and the share price of my stocks, like all stocks, may drop by 50%? I relax and do nothing because I live off my dividends. Those dividends are paid throughout the crash as regularly as they have always been paid through previous stock market crashes. During the crash I pay my monthly bills with my dividend income just as I have always done.
The idea the investment industry promotes that your portfolio must shrink in value after you retire is meant to scare you into buying more of their investment products such as expensive annuities. The value of my portfolio has grown by several multiples into the 7 figures and is still growing.
I go for years without selling any of the stocks in my portfolio while realizing a dividend income of 6 to 8 percent each year of the value of my portfolio. Most years the share prices of my 20 strong companies can also increase by about 12%. These rising share prices often cause the company’s managers to proudly increase their dividend payouts to maintain their stock’s historically high dividend yield percentages. That has kept my dividend income well ahead of inflation. You too can also build a strong dividend portfolio just like I did.
Until next week’s podcast this is Ian Duncan MacDonald encouraging you to become a successful self-directed investor.
Any questions and comments can be sent to imacd@informus.ca