Simplifying Probabilities for Better Decision Making Artwork

Quality during Design

Quality during Design is the podcast for engineers and product developers navigating the messy front end of product development. Each episode gives you practical quality and reliability tools you can use during the design phase — so your team catches problems early, avoids costly rework, and ships products people can depend on.

You'll hear solo episodes on early-stage clarity, risk-based decision-making, and quality thinking, along with conversations with cross-functional experts in the series A Chat with Cross-Functional Experts.

If you want to design products people love for less time, less cost, and a whole lot fewer headaches — this is your place.

Hosted by Dianna Deeney, consultant, coach, and author of Pierce the Design Fog. Subscribe on Substack for monthly guides, templates, and Q&A.

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Quality during Design

Simplifying Probabilities for Better Decision Making

June 13, 2024 • Dianna Deeney • Season 5 • Episode 8

0:00 | 17:51

Ever find yourself stuck trying to gauge the likelihood of an event?

What if you could transform your approach to probability assignments with just one simple trick?

On this episode of Quality During Design, we talk about simplifying probabilities for better decision making. We uncover a method to assign probabilities and occurrence ratings during preliminary assessments.

We share a technique that involves breaking down an event into smaller, more manageable parts, helping you understand and analyze it better. This method makes it easier to assign likelihoods because it provides better understanding of the event, clearer context, and consideration of what may drive things to happen.

Then, we relate these parts to conditional probabilities. We offer example explanations and practical applications to help you grasp conditional probabilities.

Plus, for those looking for additional resources, we have a cheat sheet that can further simplify these concepts for you. Not a subscriber yet? Visit qualityduringdesign.com to sign up and start receiving valuable insights directly in your inbox.

Join us to learn how these techniques can simplify probabilities, improve your assessments, and boost your team's decision-making.

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ABOUT DIANNA
Dianna Deeney is a quality advocate for product development with over 25 years of experience in manufacturing. She is president of Deeney Enterprises, LLC, which helps organizations and people improve engineering design.