Practice Makes Improvement in Subjective Probability Estimations Artwork

Quality during Design

Quality during Design is the podcast for engineers and product developers navigating the messy front end of product development. Each episode gives you practical quality and reliability tools you can use during the design phase — so your team catches problems early, avoids costly rework, and ships products people can depend on.

You'll hear solo episodes on early-stage clarity, risk-based decision-making, and quality thinking, along with conversations with cross-functional experts in the series A Chat with Cross-Functional Experts.

If you want to design products people love for less time, less cost, and a whole lot fewer headaches — this is your place.

Hosted by Dianna Deeney, consultant, coach, and author of Pierce the Design Fog. Subscribe on Substack for monthly guides, templates, and Q&A.

All Episodes

Quality during Design

Practice Makes Improvement in Subjective Probability Estimations

February 20, 2025 • Dianna Deeney • Season 5 • Episode 23

0:00 | 16:55

Does the phrase "Subjective Probability Estimation" make you feel uncomfortable? If you're a data-driven professional, you're likely wary of each of those terms on their own, let alone combining them into one thing.

But we sometimes need to do it. And we can practice to get better at it.

In this episode, we emphasize the importance of subjective probability estimations in decision-making, especially in situations where concrete data may be unavailable or impractical.

We talk about:

• Exploring the discomfort of subjective probability estimations
• Utilizing Monte Carlo simulations for complex systems analysis
• Addressing bias and improving estimation accuracy

Inspired by Douglas W. Hubbard's "The Failure of Risk Management," we uncover strategies to sharpen our estimation skills. Consistent practice leads to improvements. Whether it's by imagining you're betting money, breaking down complex estimations, or engaging in true-false trivia, this episode emphasizes regular practice in refining these skills.

I invite you to participate in a collaborative endeavor tailored for engineers—creating a shared database of estimation questions—to foster a community of learning and improvement.

Choose a true/false question (with answer).
Or ask for a value (e.g. distance in air travel from LAX to PHL) (with answer).

Share it with Dianna to add to a database for sharing. Either leave a message through the link at the top of these show notes or respond in email to Dianna's newsletter.

Visiting the podcast blog? Leave a comment.

Ready to apply this to your project?
→ Schedule a free discovery call: Dianna's calendar

Want insights like this?
→ Subscribe to my newsletter: qualityduringdesign.substack.com

Learn the full framework:
→ Get the Book: Pierce the Design Fog

ABOUT DIANNA
Dianna Deeney is a quality advocate for product development with over 25 years of experience in manufacturing. She is president of Deeney Enterprises, LLC, which helps organizations and people improve engineering design.