Water Foresight Podcast
Examining the future of water through the lens of strategic foresight--anticipating, framing, and shaping your preferred future.
Water Foresight Podcast
Developing Countries & Water: Better Product Design and Fostering Sustainable Reuse
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What happens when we recognize that resources aren't infinite? Dr. Stephen Gale joins us to offer his thoughts on how the circular economy represents a fundamental shift in economic thinking that could reshape our relationship with water and other vital resources.
From his unexpected journey as a neuropsychologist who found himself working at the Department of Agriculture and USAID, to his current role advising organizations on strategic foresight, Dr. Gale offers a unique perspective on how we must transform our approach to resource management. The circular economy, he explains, goes far beyond recycling—it's about acknowledging resource limitations, designing products for multiple life cycles, and integrating processes that minimize waste at every stage.
Our conversation explores why Scandinavian countries lead in circular economy implementation while surprising success stories like Bangladesh demonstrate how even developing nations can adopt circular principles in profitable industries. Dr. Gale dissects the barriers middle-income countries face: weak regulations, limited financing for innovation, poor internet connectivity, and economies dependent on resource extraction. Yet his most powerful insight may be that leadership, more than economic status, determines success in transitioning to circular models.
Looking ahead, Dr. Gale combines optimism with realism, believing that as countries recognize how dramatically the future differs from the past, they'll increasingly embrace sustainable approaches to resource management. Through strategic foresight and scenario planning, organizations and governments can anticipate future conditions and design systems that remain viable across multiple possible futures. His work in Egypt illustrates this perfectly—when USAID saw projections of future water scarcity, they reconsidered agricultural programs that might prove unsustainable.
Connect with Dr. Gale on LinkedIn to learn more about his work with Global Foresight Strategies and join the conversation about creating a more sustainable water future.
#water #WaterForesight #strategicforesight #foresight #futures @Aqualaurus
Welcome and Introduction
Speaker 1Aqualaris. This is the Water Foresight Podcast powered by the Aqualaris Group, where we anticipate, frame and shape the future of water through strategic foresight. Today's guest is Dr Stephen Gale, who is a strategic advisor with Global Foresight Strategies. Also, dr Gale is on the editorial advisory Board of the Wilson Center's Environmental Change and Security Program. Finally, dr Gale is an adjunct professor at Capital Technology University. Dr Gale, welcome to the Water Foresight Podcast. It is a privilege to have you on today.
Speaker 2Thanks, matt, my pleasure.
Dr. Gale's Unexpected Career Path
Speaker 1Well, I want to re-engage this idea called the circular economy and you seem to be the right guy to talk about it and first tell us a little bit about your career. You've had a very interesting career. Tell us a little bit about that and how you ended up where you are today.
Speaker 2Well, thanks, matt. I have a kind of an interesting story and I hope it'll be a kind of inspiration for those people who think well, I know what my career is going to be. I know what I want to be exactly in five years and 10 years. For me that has not been my experience. So I'm glad you asked the question about a career path and, to be honest, friends and colleagues often ask how did you end up working for the US government? And the truth is I really never imagined working for the government. You know I'm a neuropsychologist by training and I envision myself, for better or worse, working in a lab and wearing a white lab coat, no less, and teaching graduate undergraduate courses.
Speaker 2But my journey after graduate school, well, it took a different, surprising turn for me. I happened to be studying obesity. Out of the blue, I got a call from the Department of Agriculture. They said hey, we operate the school lunch program and that's the largest feeding program and I wonder if you'd be interested to see if our programs really have the positive effect we want. So they offered me an option to come to Washington for a year and kind of look at their feeding programs.
Speaker 2I did that and that included a bunch of feeding programs your listeners probably know about school lunch, school breakfast, the WIC program and actually stayed there for oh, maybe 10 years. And then I think, as luck would have it, I got a call from USAID, the USHC for international development, and said hey, we provide a lot of food for overseas people, so I wonder if you could join us and see how our programs are working overseas. So I was there for the next 10 plus years. So, as careers go, I think the simple lesson that I took away is from my journey is you've got to be open to all opportunities and no matter what you plan, if you're open to opportunities they'll most likely come your way. Hope that helps a little bit.
Speaker 1Yeah, that's great. That's great, what an interesting career, and I do think it will be inspirational to those that are beginning their careers and recognizing that where you think you're going to go, where you start out, may not be where you end up, but certainly let me put a shout out for a career in the world of water. Right, and we come again to this idea of the circular economy. It is an idea that seems to be not just here in America, but also around the world. It seems to have persisted over the years. And tell us a little bit about what is the circular economy and how does that differ from ideas, like you know, waste management or recycling, especially as it may pertain to the world of water?
Speaker 2Great. Well, that's a good question. I think a lot of people misperceive what the circular economy is, and at least the way I think about it, Matt, is that it's an economic model. Now, you don't have to be a PhD economist to understand its basics. It helps, but not necessary. So the way I like to think about a circular economy, it has three components, and the first is to recognize that resources are finite.
Speaker 2The circular economy rejects the often held common view that, well, you can always find resources. There's an endless supply of resources, they're infinite and you'll find the products and materials that you need, and there's no end in sight for that. So the first realization about a circular economy is that that's probably not true. It seems to be true in the short run that you can always find resources, but over time that base is going to shrink. I'm talking about 10, 15, 20 years. Right now it seems unlimited, but over that's going to decrease. So that's one big component of a circular economy thinking.
Speaker 2The next, at least the way I look at it, is you have to start from the very beginning to design products and the way that you deal with products in multiple ways. By that I mean that the end product of one manufacturing ought to be input to the next stage of manufacturing. So design right from the beginning whatever your manufacturing or material needs are, design it right and be thinking about not just one life cycle for your product, In other words, think about multiple life cycles. Again, it's a mind shift because designers often think about the short term and the end product and they're happy when the end product is done and available and accessed. But if that end product can also serve as an input to the next manufacturing cycle, then I think you're moving forward to understanding what the circular economy is you're moving forward to the understanding what the circular economy is.
Speaker 1It seems that you're describing something that would be very appropriate and significant for those in what we call supply chain departments, if you will, international companies, supply chain managers. Is that a fair observation?
Speaker 2Absolutely, absolutely. It's life cycles, one after another. Now, I'm not saying this is particularly easy to do at first, but if you put a lot of effort into design, innovation and material reuse from the start, you're ahead of the game in adopting a circular economy. Now you pointed out earlier and I want to build on a good point that you made about well, aren't there products and processes that already exist? So do we have to invent new processes? So do we have to invent new processes?
Speaker 2And the way I look at it is that the third component is to examine what you're doing, but not in a kind of like a microscopic way, not in an individual manufacturing way, but to try to integrate what you're doing. So let's say, you want to minimize waste, you want to minimize all aspects of waste, so that we know and we all use, I hope, existing approaches like composting and recycling. And you know, if you have a laptop or iPhone, maybe you don't need a new one, maybe you can repair it and refurbish it. Yeah, so it's not that a lot of innovation in terms of processes are essentially needed. It's more about trying to integrate them. So if you want to develop a circular economy and you want it to scale up, then it's best to integrate all of these different approaches no-transcript.
Global Approaches to Circular Economy
Speaker 1It seems that this idea of the circular economy is maybe familiar to many people in the West or in America, but is there a difference between how the circular economy whether it be, you know, solid waste or water is there a difference in how this is deployed and addressed across different kinds of countries?
Speaker 2Absolutely, and that's a very good analysis, because you take the Scandinavian countries Sweden, netherlands and Finland they are, by most accounts, very good. They're not perfect, but they are very good at the circular economy and that's because they're well integrated. And there's a number of reasons. They're very advanced in communications and in design methodologies. They're very advanced in communications and in design methodologies. However, and again, they're not perfect and they're struggling. They have speed bumps along the way as well.
Speaker 2But the real challenge, I think, if you're looking at the future, is challenges for what I would call the middle income countries. There are some exceptions now. I mean, it's not just a Scandinavian success story. I like to think of a couple of different countries, and the one that comes most to mind is Bangladesh, and at least it stands out in my mind.
Speaker 2Years ago, bangladesh realized that they needed a national policy that supports a circular economy, so they developed a national program that really helps sustainable practices and efficient manufacturing and lifecycle promotion. So their aim and here's the challenge for a country like Bangladesh. So their aim and here's the challenge for a country like Bangladesh is clearly not a well-developed country in some regards, but they have a very profitable industry ready-made garments, if you look around your room or your office, you're going to find ready-made garments. But to make those garments is very environmentally damaging. It sort of goes counter to the circular economy thinking. So what they've done is they've realized the circular economy is important for their industry. It's a high-profit industry and so they're all about reducing textile waste, increasing the material use again life cycles and also are showing that it's possible over time to develop a circular economy.
Speaker 1Yeah, from a strategic foresight perspective and there's many ways to ask this question or many different angles to this question but if I'm a supply chain professional in an organization or I am a leader within a particular country, whether it's Sweden or Bangladesh, why is it important to really explore this notion of the circular economy, not just today or tomorrow, but over the next 20 years? Why would that be so important to either a country or an organization?
Speaker 2Well, I think it goes back to the concept of what is a circular economy and why it's important. Countries that run out of resources are in a very precarious situation, so I don't think it's critical that a country stops what it's doing. Embraces circular economy. It's more looking over time in terms of what's the win-win scenario for my country, and so the idea is recognize your resources are limited, try to be as efficient as possible in your manufacturing and reuse, try to integrate the well-known and well-used series of recycling and composting. So you want to do this to set yourself up as a country that's going to be a proficient, efficient and sustainable country in the future, because that benefits your citizens.
Speaker 1It seems to me what you're suggesting and again, I'm always willing to be wrong but from the perspective of foresight, we talk about really shaping your preferred future and whether I'm an organization wanting to be profitable and existing in 20 years or I'm a country that wants to be more economically prosperous, having an understanding of strategic foresight and the tools that are there, they can look out 20 years and say you know, this idea of the circular economy is something that we should really begin to look at, these signals, these trends and begin to backcast into maybe considering how we can deploy the circular economy techniques and principles so that we can have a better opportunity at shaping our preferred future, whether we're Bangladesh or Kenya or Sweden. Is that a fair way to look at it? I think that's not only fair, but that's a fair way to look at it.
Barriers for Developing Countries
Speaker 2I think that's not only fair, but that's the right way to look at it. You know, if you're a Vietnam or Uganda or Indonesia, things are humming along well now in manufacturing, but you want to make sure you have that competitive advantage in the future. Sure you have that competitive advantage in the future. Or, with regard to supply chain, you know future global supply chains. They may be integral to what's going on in Africa. So yeah, having that kind of long term vision of five and 10 years out, recognizing that what's happened in the past may not be what's going to happen in the future, that should excite government leaders, business leaders, citizens, groups to say, just as you've said what's the future we want? How do we get there? What will drive that future? So, from a strategic foresight, scenario planning perspective, I think the circular economy has a lot of pluses for it.
Speaker 1Yeah, and it's my understanding that many countries have, when looking at the future of water, have started to think about whether they call it the circular economy or not. They are thinking about the future and they're looking at water reuse or water reclamation opportunities. I think Israel and other countries are starting to say why are we using this water and then discharging it somewhere else? Why don't we try to reuse it? And it has value, and I think you're going to probably see that from countries or organizations that really are starting to take the circular economy more seriously. But speaking of international opportunities, I mean you have a lot of international expertise, but what do you see as the major impediments for these developing countries, maybe like Bangladesh, from really becoming more like you know, you mentioned some Scandinavian countries. What's the major impediments facing these countries?
Speaker 2Great question and I'm not sure I have all the answers, to be honest. But a couple of things come to mind. What are the challenges for these middle-income countries? And the one category that strikes me is that many of these countries have what I would call institutional capacity shortfalls. These include regulations. They may have regulations or they may not, but often when they have them they're weak or not enforced. So what does that lead to in a middle-income country, for example, let's say you're building houses If you're not thinking about the optimal best design for housing, or if you're just thinking about temporary housing, then you're probably not going to deploy really state-of-the-art manufacturing. It's unfortunate of the art manufacturing. It's unfortunate. But another problem for developing countries, which you don't really see in the more developed, say Scandinavian countries, is that there aren't really strong prohibitions about, let's say, a country becoming a dumping ground for hazardous end-use materials. So they might be banned more in developing countries but less so in middle-income countries. So you put all of that together, I see that as kind of a country that doesn't have strong institutions is likely to not get on board quickly for a circular economy. But that's not the only shortfall that comes to mind.
Speaker 2A second thought I had is that, you know, for, develop for and I'm calling the middle income countries just just for a frame of reference, just for a frame of reference. But financing is a major impediment for advancing circular economies. So take organizations like USAID, the World Bank and so forth. In recent years, donors like that. They've not really focused on the circular economy. They're more about, you know, funding what I would call GDP raising projects, or they're more about job creation projects or export or health. Now, these are very important, but when you spend a disproportionate amount of your money on those kinds of activities, that means simply it's less money for the circular economy. So you're not working with a government to formulate a national policy, working with the government to formulate a national policy. So the second kind of impediment that I see is the money isn't there at the moment to really support circular economy. Now that's changing, but slowly.
Speaker 2In any case, think about, if I think in my experience about all the programs I've seen there have been some, but mainly there's not a lot of funding for innovative technologies and, as I said at the beginning, that innovative technologies are at the heart of CE or circular economy, and it's a little risky. You know donors don't like a lot of risks to take, so they're not willing to explore, you know, a new business model and so forth. So that second kind of impediment is there isn't the financing or the risk involved in supporting um circular economies. And then I think, um, there's another big problem and that has to do with the internet. Most developing countries and I think your listeners will recognize they are on board for the latest digital and related technologies AI, gps, machine learning, blockchain Yet large portions of these countries don't have access, or only have limited access, to the Internet.
Speaker 2So as a country you're not going to have a cohesive circular economy mind shift if portions of your country aren't connected to the internet. And again, that's changing, but very slowly. So that's a big problem. And finally, I think I don't know and I've been in development for many years and I'm probably guilty of this but natural resource extraction, agriculture, production this is kind of to do in a country is gin up its economic growth. So in some nations they want to make CE a priority, stakeholders who see a circular economy as a threat to natural resources and agriculture dependent growth.
Speaker 1Does that make sense? Yeah, yeah, no, no, absolutely. You have alluded to some developing countries that do stand out in your mind as being, you know, leaders when it comes to the circular economy. Why is that? You know?
Leadership and Future Outlook
Speaker 2I think it has a lot to do with leadership and less to do with the particulars of a country. You know a country that has strong leaders. I think that's essential to driving a circular economy Because, as I said earlier and I'm sure listeners recommend a circular economy it's a fundamental mind shift. You know you have to have a change in how you think about organizations and processes. You need top-level leadership. You also need kind of a bubbling up of demand for better products, products with longer lifespans, and so, rather than look at particular characteristics of countries, I think the leadership in a country is absolutely important.
Speaker 2You know, we all live in a kind of take, make, dispose environment and to shift to innovate, reuse, conserve models. That takes a lot and it takes a lot of leadership to make that happen. And countries that are effective and can communicate and convince their citizens that the benefits of a circular economy will benefit all I mean, that's from consumers, suppliers, manufacturers, suppliers, manufacturers, importers, exporters and so forth and so on. If your country wants to move strongly in the direction of a circular economy, I think it's essential that you have good leadership to encourage that.
Speaker 1That's a good observation. I like that answer. Leadership and leadership is really something that is part and parcel to strategic foresight. I think there are a lot of organizations that simply don't understand it. They're not aware of it, and if they are, they may not take it seriously, and so I do think that leadership is certainly behind the adoption of circular economy policies, procedures, standards and the like. When we think about the future of the circular economy, whether it be with the reuse of materials, water recycling, water reuse, I'm not sure, but are you an optimist or a pessimist when you look out 20 years and you think about scenarios in different, whether it's an organization or countries that you've looked at, is it going to be a business as usual type of scenario that you've looked at? Is it going to be a business as usual type of scenario, maybe a collapse scenario or maybe a transformation?
Speaker 2scenario when will we be in 20 years and you know where do you fall? Great question. You know I'm an optimist by nature, so I guess I, when I look at the global situation, I see countries, and not just Bangladesh, but I see the Vietnams and Ugandas and Indonesia countries. I see that they're sensing that today will look very different than tomorrow and five and 10 years out. So I'm optimistic, that I'm optimistic combined with being realistic. Nothing about the circular economy is going to happen overnight and that's true for the. You know I've talked about the Scandinavian countries. You know being this sort of success story. But they've had a lot. They've had a lot of of demands will over time meet with good leadership in a country and when those forces combine bottom-up demand, clear vision for a country, when those combine, I'm leaning towards the optimistic camp for a circular economy.
Speaker 1Yeah, yeah. And let me ask one final question the discipline of strategic foresight. We don't talk enough about this, but do you? How do you? Well, let me ask how do you believe that this discipline can help you realize the optimism about which you speak in this discussion of the circular economy? Is it an effective tool to help us achieve a better future when it comes to the circular economy?
Speaker 2I think yes, I mean, I think I've been preaching I guess might be the word about the values of scenario planning and looking to the future, because things are just moving so fast. If you're not focusing on the future, or if you think the future looks like the past, I think you're going to be, unfortunately, mistaken. So, with things moving so quickly and with a high degree of uncertainty, you need to think about not just one trajectory, but several different trajectories. And I think, matt, what you're talking about is the importance of scenario planning. And I would combine that with evidence and I'll give you an example.
Strategic Foresight and Conclusion
Speaker 2I remember, not too many years ago, traveling to Egypt on behalf of USAID and doing a scenario planning exercise with our staff in Cairo, and they're showing me all these programs they have, and I'm looking at these programs and they're crop-oriented programs and I'm thinking to myself aren't you going to need water for this? And so, of course, they know they need water, but are they looking out five and 10 and 15 years in terms of water availability? So I'm able to show them data projections grounded in some past, data that's projected five and 10 years out, and suddenly a light bulb goes on to show that, yes, these programs are going to be successful and critical now, but we need to informed. I think people begin to realize how important strategic foresight is and the development of not just one alternative but several alternatives. Yeah, does that resonate with your thinking about the importance of foresight?
Speaker 1Yeah, absolutely. I mean, scenario planning is one of the perhaps the penultimate tools in the practitioner's toolbox. And I want to make a note you have surreptitiously, if not maybe directly, given an appropriate nod to monitoring trends and looking for signals of change and, as you pointed out, you may sit in a room with people in Cairo and you're providing data, evidence that perhaps they're not monitoring. That feeds into some of the scenarios that may be plausible, possible or even preferred, and you're guiding them along the way to what a preferred future would look like, through perhaps the elements of the circular autonomy. So I think those are important and we won't get into what scenario planning is all about.
Speaker 1We won't go through all the elements of that, but I think certainly I do agree with you that leadership is very important, whether you're in an organization or in a country. I do think that foresight is an appropriate tool to help everyone understand the implications of the circular economy, especially as it relates to the future of water, and certainly not just broadly scenario planning, but monitoring for signals of change. Obviously, you may agree with me, but your scenarios may only be as good as the signals and the trends that you're watching for. So I like that I like that Good Well we're in total agreement.
Speaker 2Now we just have to convince the world about it.
Speaker 1Yeah, well, you're the smart one, I'm just the host, so I haven't been to cairo, but, uh, maybe someday in the future. But uh, you know, steve, I want to thank you for being a guest today on the water foresight podcast. This is a fascinating discussion and we could probably have multiple podcasts on all the places you've been and all the things you've done when it comes to water, the circular economy. I know that you've left USAID and tell us a little bit about where you are and how folks can get a hold of you if they want to talk to you further about the circular economy.
Speaker 2Well, thank you, matt. By the way, this has been enjoyable on my end as well. I've really enjoyed our discussion and you're absolutely right, we could do several podcasts on this, but let's have a little mercy on our listeners. Yeah, I got an F in retirement because, when I left USAID, I decided I like working in the developing world and so I joined a consulting firm, which will be no surprise to many of my friends and colleagues and where we do foresight. It's called Global Foresight Strategies. I very welcome questions about our consulting firm and what we do, but we do a lot of exactly what you talked about, matt, which is a foresight, and we have a number of different areas of the world that we're focused on. But I would love to hear from your listeners. I'm on LinkedIn and look forward to discussions and dialogue and learning.
Speaker 1Wonderful, wonderful. Thank you again, steve, for your time, your wisdom and insights, and we thank you, the listener, for joining us today on the Water Force Site podcast and we look forward to seeing you on the next episode. Have a wonderful day. Thank you for listening to the Water Force Site podcast, powered by the Aqualaris Group. For more information, please visit us at Aqualariscom or follow us on LinkedIn and Twitter.
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