Sugar Prices Are Below Cost So What Happens Next

CANEGROWERS Around the Paddock

CANEGROWERS Around the Paddock
Sugar Prices Are Below Cost So What Happens Next
Jun 20, 2026
CANEGROWERS

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Sugar doesn’t need a headline to hurt, it just needs to sit below the cost of production for long enough. We’re back with the CANEGROWERS Marketing Information Service update for June 2026, and the message is blunt: prices aren’t where growers want them, shared pool add-ons are under pressure, and the market is still working through surplus supply from the last upswing.

We’re joined by Tom from Green Pool and Rob from Famarco to unpack what’s really driving the global sugar outlook. We talk Centre‑South Brazil’s huge crop and rising input costs, Thailand’s switch toward cassava and the production hit from disease, and why the EU could step down next season. On the demand side, we look at how China’s stronger production and Indonesia’s slow import permits change trade flows, plus how the Middle East conflict disrupts refinery buying and the usual stock-building behaviour.

For Australian cane growers, the practical issues land in the shared pool: softer Far East premiums, lower polarisation upside, and marketing costs that don’t fall just because the futures price does. We also get specific about forward pricing and risk management: what “time in the market” buys you, why knowing your cost of production matters more in a low-price year, and how to avoid backing yourself into a corner while you wait for the next cycle turn. If you’re watching El Nino probabilities and the Indian monsoon for a trigger, you’ll want these frameworks in your pocket.

Subscribe for the next market update, share this with a grower mate, and leave a review with your question: what’s the one signal you’re watching before you commit more pricing?

Episode Artwork Sugar Prices Are Below Cost So What Happens Next 42:19 Episode Artwork From global dominance to a shifting market 42:32 Episode Artwork Talking Trade: How Middle East Conflict and Oil Prices Hit Sugar 21:16 Episode Artwork Talking Trade: From Surplus to Strategy: Making Sense of a Softer Sugar Market 26:00 Episode Artwork Stay Ahead: Smart Sugar Pricing Strategies You Can Use Today 34:55 Episode Artwork A Rapid Rise, Relentless Damage & The Long Road To Recovery - Cairns grower recall shocking Spring flood 29:51 Episode Artwork Talking Trade - Exploring QSL's Future: Innovation and Industry Insights with Mark Hampson 41:26 Episode Artwork Talking Trade - Forward Pricing Strategies Are Reshaping How Growers Manage Risk 32:46 Episode Artwork Talking Trade - The Sweet Truth About Sustainable Sugar 43:05 Episode Artwork Unpacking the Mill Performance Puzzle - Part 2 29:55 Episode Artwork Deep dive into Cost of Production 21:46 Episode Artwork Unpacking the Mill Performance Puzzle - Part 1 43:47 Episode Artwork Talking Trade - Warren Males talks tariffs 25:34 Episode Artwork Chopping and Changing: Harvesting Sector Challenges Pt 1 24:01 Episode Artwork Trump's Tariff Turmoil 12:32 Episode Artwork Sugarcane for Jet Fuel: Visionary Future or Pipe Dream? 28:35 Episode Artwork Harvesting Resilience: Mossman's journey through mill closure 43:12 Episode Artwork Getting to grips with load restraints 18:38 Episode Artwork Feral Pig Failure! Has government put feral pigs in the too hard basket? 24:34 Episode Artwork Trade - Working behind the scenes to keep growers profitable 30:04 Episode Artwork Impacts of rural crime on growers 28:58 Episode Artwork 40 years fighting for growers 31:19 Episode Artwork Rampaging rats wreak havoc 13:41 Episode Artwork Growers ahead of the game on emissions reduction 14:44 Episode Artwork Budget, risk and price: CANEGROWERS essentials for a cane farm 20:12