Central Banks Face the Oil Test

Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines, Senior Portfolio Manager at Eurizon SLJ Capital, to preview the macro themes shaping the week ahead.

This episode focuses on how persistent oil-price shocks could affect global monetary policy. Neil discusses the Bank of England’s warning that higher oil prices may imply a tighter policy path, the underlying weakness in the UK economy, and the added market uncertainty around local elections.

The conversation also covers the Bank of Japan, yen weakness and MOF intervention, the ECB’s rate-hike outlook, and the key US data to watch, including non-farm payrolls, JOLTS, ADP and ISM. With the Fed on hold, oil, inflation risks and demand trends remain central to the policy outlook.

To close, Matt and Neil look ahead to the UK bank holiday weekend, including football, the Snooker World Championship, Formula One’s return at the Miami Grand Prix, and Charles Leclerc’s reported golfing masterclass from Rickie Fowler before getting back to a different kind of driving.

Key topics: Bank of England, oil prices, ECB, Bank of Japan, Fed, US payrolls, yen intervention, ISM, AI CapEx, Formula One.

Chapters:
00:00 Welcome and introductions
00:29 UK week ahead
02:24 Global central banks
04:26 US payroll week
06:30 Bank holiday banter
07:31 Long and short picks
07:57 Wrap-up and disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.