Growth, Inflation and the Global K-Shaped Recovery

Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines, Senior Portfolio Manager at Eurizon SLJ Capital, to discuss the macroeconomic themes shaping the week ahead for professional investors.

This week’s conversation covers UK political volatility following the local elections, the fiscal implications for gilt markets, and the outlook for UK assets as markets await Q1 GDP. Neil explains why Eurizon SLJ remains less optimistic than the market on UK growth, and why Bank of England rate cuts in 2026 may remain on the table.

The discussion also turns to the global macro backdrop, where a potential US-Iran off-ramp has helped reduce the energy risk premium and supported market sentiment. However, Neil highlights a widening pattern of regional and sectoral differentiation, with Korea, Taiwan and the US benefiting from the AI semiconductor and memory CapEx cycle, while Europe remains more exposed to the energy shock.

Looking ahead, key data and events include Eurozone sentiment indicators, Australia confidence data after the RBA’s latest rate hike, China CPI and PPI, the Trump-Xi meeting, and a major week of US data including payrolls, CPI, retail sales and Empire Manufacturing.

Neil also shares his long and short calls for the week: long the hope of a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and short the hope of a near-term UK economic recovery.

For professional investors only.

Chapter markers

00:00 Welcome and introductions
 00:29 UK politics and gilt market implications
 01:17 The oil shock, UK GDP and Bank of England policy
 02:20 Global markets and the return of differentiation
 03:18 Eurozone, Australia and China watchlist
 04:33 US data, inflation and Fed focus
 06:18 Weekend sports watchlist
 07:15 Long and short calls
 07:40 Wrap-up and disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.