Political Volatility, Higher Yields, and the Global Growth Test

Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines, Senior Portfolio Manager at Eurizon SLJ Capital, to discuss the macro themes shaping the week ahead.

This week’s episode focuses on rising UK political volatility, its impact on the UK yield curve, and the implications of high debt, elevated deficits, and limited fiscal headroom. Neil also looks at why stronger recent growth data may need to be treated with caution, as seasonality, higher oil prices, and rising yields create a more complicated backdrop for Q2 and Q3.

Globally, attention turns to whether the Trump-Xi meeting represents genuine progress or simply a stabilisation of relations. Neil discusses the market reaction to comments on the Strait of Hormuz, the potential implications for oil and yields, and the data points to watch across China, Australia, Japan, and emerging markets.

In the US, hotter CPI and PPI data, resilient activity, and growing market divergence keep the focus on the FOMC minutes, NVIDIA earnings, and developments around Iran.

Finally, Matt and Neil look ahead to a packed sporting weekend, including football, golf, and the Women’s Six Nations Grand Slam decider.

Chapters

00:00 Show intro
 00:29 UK politics and data
 02:11 Global macro watchlist
 04:22 US inflation and the Fed
 06:09 Weekend sports picks
 06:49 Long and short calls
 07:23 Wrap-up and disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.