In this episode of the Long and Short of the Week Ahead by Eurizon SLJ Capital, Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss the anticipated macroeconomic events for the upcoming week, primarily focusing on the US. Topics include mixed economic signals from the UK, cooling tariff rhetoric globally, and significant upcoming US data and earnings reports. There is also a brief insight into upcoming global economic indicators, such as European inflation and German GDP.  This episode provides valuable insights for professional investors navigating the current economic landscape.

00:00 Introduction and Overview
00:37 UK Economic Outlook
02:57 Global Economic Insights
05:57 US Economic Focus
10:44 Conclusion and Sign-Off

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

In this episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead,' hosted by Matt Jones and joined by Neil Staines from Eurizon SLJ Capital, key macroeconomic themes and forecasts for the upcoming week are discussed. Topics covered include the UK's economic outlook with upcoming employment and CPI reports, the global impact of US-China trade tensions, important global economic data releases like Germany's ZEW sentiment index, China's GDP data, and Japan's CPI. Additionally, insights into the Bank of Canada and ECB's upcoming actions and their implications on global financial markets are provided. 

00:00 Introduction and Overview
00:41 Focus on the UK Economy
02:16 Global Economic Outlook
04:59 US Economic Focus
07:13 Conclusion and Disclaimers

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

In this episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead,' Matt Jones of Eurizon SLJ Capital and Senior Portfolio Manager Neil Staines discuss the macroeconomic themes and data releases anticipated for the upcoming week. The conversation covers the US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, FOMC minutes, CPI, PPI, and Michigan sentiment data, alongside Q1 earnings from major banks. Globally, attention is on German trade balance, Eurozone Sentix expectations, Australian consumer confidence, New Zealand's monetary policy, and China's CPI and PPI. The duo also explore the impact of recent tariff announcements and heightened geopolitical tensions on market volatility and asset allocation. 

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview
00:38 US Data and Market Implications
02:27 Global Data and Market Dynamics
04:20 Geopolitical Influences and Trade Dynamics
06:32 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

In this week's episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead,' Matt Jones and Neil Staines from Eurizon SLJ Capital discuss major macroeconomic themes and market events. The UK headlines include European defense negotiations, auto tariff considerations, and the spring statement. Global fiscal and monetary policies are analyzed, with a focus on US fiscal consolidation, Europe’s fiscal expansion, and anticipated rate changes by central banks. Key data releases from Japan, China, Australia, and major US economic indicators are highlighted. 

00:00 Introduction and Overview
00:35 UK Economic Highlights
01:14 Global Fiscal and Monetary Policies
02:50 Upcoming Global Economic Data
04:19 US Economic Focus
05:52 Closing Remarks

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

In this episode of 'The Long and Short Forward Curve' by Eurizon SLJ Capital, Matt Jones discusses the implications of the upcoming FOMC meeting on March 17, 2025. While immediate action from the Fed is not anticipated, the focus will be on the updated economic projections, which will reflect the Fed's stance on tariffs, geopolitical risks, and equity market fragility. The episode highlights the growing tension between market expectations of fiscal expansion and the Trump administration's commitment to fiscal consolidation. Technical insights, such as the fiscal r-star and the dot plot, provide crucial signals for professional investors about future interest rate adjustments and their impact on global markets.

00:00 Introduction to the Long and Short Forward Curve
00:31 This Week's FOMC Meeting: What to Expect
00:48 Key Insights from Neil Staines
01:16 The Macro Setup: Complex, Political, and Volatile
02:18 Fiscal vs Monetary Policy Divergence
03:24 Equities and the Fed's Response
04:05 Watch the Dot Plot, Not the Rate Decision
04:49 Disclaimer and Legal Information

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

In this episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead' by Eurizon SLJ Capital, Matt Jones, Head of Distribution, and Neil Staines, Senior Portfolio Manager, discuss major macroeconomic themes and key global data expected in the coming week. The focus is on Germany's fiscal stimulus plans and the U.S.'s fiscal consolidation, alongside crucial economic data from China, Germany, the Ricks Bank, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of Japan. The discussion also covers the UK macro outlook with an emphasis on the upcoming Bank of England meeting and the FOMC meeting in the U.S., which will be crucial amid ongoing tariff and trade uncertainties. 

00:00 Introduction and Overview
01:46 Global Data Highlights for the Week
03:18 Focus on the UK Economy
04:41 US Economic Outlook and the Fed
07:15 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

In this episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead' from Eurizon SLJ Capital, Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss crucial macroeconomic themes and market developments. Key topics include Germany's surprising fiscal expansion and its implications for Europe, a review of China's recent economic stimulus measures, and the US's fiscal and monetary policy outlook. They also preview significant economic data releases and expected market moves for the coming week.

00:00 Introduction to Fiscal Conservatism and Monetary Activism
00:16 Welcome and Overview of the Week Ahead
00:41 Focus on Europe: Germany's Fiscal Expansion
03:04 China's Economic Stimulus and Global Impact
04:48 US Economic Outlook and Policy Implications
07:50 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

In this episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead' by Eurizon SLJ Capital, Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss upcoming macroeconomic themes. They cover the impact of global trade tariffs, particularly the March 4th deadline for tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, on FX markets and volatility. They also talk about key economic indicators such as the February CAIXIN PMI from China, global manufacturing and services PMI, and the significant ECB meeting. Lastly, they focus on the US with ISM manufacturing and service sector activity, ADP, trade data, and the highly anticipated non-farm payrolls, providing insights on how these factors may shape market sentiment and positioning next week.

00:00 Introduction and Overview
00:42 Global Trade and Geopolitical Events
02:24 European Economic Outlook and ECB Meeting
04:14 US Economic Outlook and Key Data Releases
06:29 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

In this episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead,' Matt Jones, Head of Distribution for Eurizon SLJ Capital, and Neil Staines, Senior Portfolio Manager, provide a detailed analysis of the upcoming macroeconomic themes and events. The focus begins with the German elections and their potential impact on coalition dynamics, crucial for significant fiscal policies. They also discuss the European economic outlook, specifically referencing the IFO index and comments from ECB's Isabel Schnabel. The conversation covers a range of central bank speakers from the DM economies, expected economic data releases, and their implications for monetary policy, particularly in the UK, Eurozone, and the US. They also examine US economic indicators and sentiment shifts that could affect equity markets. 

00:00 Introduction and Overview
00:53 Focus on Germany and Europe
03:56 Central Bank Speakers and Economic Data
06:04 US Economic Outlook and Key Data Releases
07:34 Market Volatility and Key Events
09:24 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

In this episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead' by Eurizon SLJ Capital, Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss the key macroeconomic themes and data to watch in the upcoming week. As the US has a quiet week with President's Day and the end of the earnings season, the focus shifts internationally. Key data includes Japanese Q4 GDP, rate decisions from the RBA and RBNZ, and Japanese CPI. Global flash PMIs and the German election will also be closely monitored. The discussion touches on the implications of US policy on tariffs and the Russia-Ukraine situation, noting a shift towards a more negotiated and less confrontational path on tariffs. The UK economic outlook is also explored with significant upcoming data releases and their impact on the Bank of England's monetary policy. 

00:00 Introduction to Global Macro Factors
00:30 Welcome and Introductions
00:55 Upcoming Week's Global Economic Data
03:27 Focus on Tariffs and Geopolitical Themes
06:22 UK Economic Data and Bank of England Outlook
08:49 Conclusion and Closing Remarks

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

In this episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead,' Matt Jones and Neil Staines from Eurizon SLJ Capital discuss global macroeconomic themes set to shape the upcoming week. They explore the Trump administration's fiscal policies, the impact of tariffs and trade relations with China, and the anticipated data releases, including CPI, PPI, and retail sales. The episode also delves into the UK's monetary policy following a recent rate cut by the Bank of England and its implications for inflation and economic growth. Additionally, the show touches on upcoming releases of Chinese economic data and the expected fiscal and monetary interactions in the US. 

00:00 Introduction to Fiscal Policies and Market Views
00:27 Welcome and Introduction of Hosts
00:52 China's Economic Outlook and Global Impact
02:42 US Fiscal and Monetary Policy Analysis
05:07 UK Monetary Policy and Economic Projections
07:12 Weekend Sports Highlights and Closing Remarks

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

In this edition of The Long & Short, Neil Staines examines how swift US policy shifts contrast with Europe’s slower regulatory pace, shaping economic competitiveness and market sentiment.

• The US is enacting policy changes rapidly, while Europe remains stuck in slow-moving regulatory debates, which are impacting economic competitiveness and market sentiment.
• While the new US administration has drawn attention, the Federal Reserve's latest meeting underscored a slowing pace of rate cuts, reinforcing a more cautious monetary policy stance.
• Despite minor hawkish changes in the FOMC statement, Chair Powell emphasized a balanced stance, highlighting that policy rates remain restrictive and maintaining the implicit dovish bias.
• The Fed's policy trajectory depends on four key variables tied to the new administration—tariffs, immigration, deregulation, and fiscal consolidation—all of which influence hashtag#inflation, the labour market, and the yield curve.
• The ECB cut rates as expected but hinted at a more optimistic growth outlook. Real wages are rising, credit affordability is improving, and the global trade recovery is supporting European exports.
• While many factors shape the global hashtag#macro landscape, the most significant driver remains the economic and fiscal policies of the new US administration, with the Fed - and possibly global markets - pausing until more clarity emerges.

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

In this episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead,' Matt Jones from Eurizon SLJ Capital is joined by Neil Staines to discuss key macroeconomic themes of the upcoming week. The episode focuses on the Federal Reserve and ECB policies, recent PMI data, and anticipated economic indicators such as the US ISM Manufacturing, JOLTS, ADP, and non-farm payrolls. It also examines the ECB's recent rate cut and its implications for inflation and growth in the Eurozone. The UK's economic outlook and potential interest rate cuts by the Bank of England are also discussed, along with a roundup of significant earnings reports from major corporations. 

00:00 Introduction and Market Focus
00:21 Welcome and Introductions
00:53 US Economic Data and Fed Policy
03:33 European Central Bank and Eurozone Outlook
05:37 UK Economy and Bank of England
07:59 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

In this episode of 'The Long and Short', an audio blog by Eurizon SLJ Capital, Neil Staines discusses the macroeconomic themes from the past week. Key topics include anticipated interest rate cuts in the UK, the impact of fiscal policies on employment and inflation, the US Presidential Inauguration amidst the World Economic Forum in Davos, the usage of tariffs as a negotiation tool by President Trump, and a freeze on Federal civilian hiring. The episode also outlines expectations for US inflation trajectories and anticipates the focus of upcoming ECB meetings and potential German fiscal easing. This newsletter targets professional investors and provides in-depth insights into the current economic landscape.

00:00 Introduction and Overview
00:24 UK Economic Outlook
00:32 US Presidential Inauguration
03:10 US Tariff Policies
04:47 Federal Hiring Freeze
05:46 US Inflation Trends
07:19 Looking Ahead: Europe and the US
08:15 Disclaimer and Legal Information

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

This episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead' by Eurizon SLJ Capital features Matt Jones and Neil Staines discussing the key macroeconomic themes and market focuses for the upcoming week. They analyze the impact of recent political events including President Trump's executive actions and the World Economic Forum in Davos, and delve into the implications of upcoming data releases and central bank actions in the US, Europe, Australia, China, and emerging markets. Key topics include the ECB's potential rate cut, US inflation trajectory, and global trade negotiations. 

00:00 Introduction and Market Focus
00:47 Political Focus: US Presidential Inauguration and Global Events
02:38 Global Economic Outlook: China, Australia, and Emerging Markets
03:32 European Central Bank and Economic Indicators
05:15 US Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Outlook
07:34 Weekend Preview: Sports and Leisure
08:21 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

In this episode of "The Long & Short," Neil Staines examines how global markets are bracing for shifts in monetary policy, fiscal dynamics, and the evolving trade landscape:

• Markets are increasingly pricing in a 25 basis point rate hike by the Bank of Japan in January 2025, reflecting a shift in Japan's monetary policy towards normalisation despite global divergences.
• UK fiscal pressures and a weaker-than-expected economy could prompt the Bank of England to cut rates faster than markets currently anticipate, especially under a benign inflation scenario.
• The U.S. Presidential Inauguration and the World Economic Forum in Davos will dominate global market sentiment, with significant attention on U.S. policy direction.
• Front-loading in global trade due to expected Trump tariffs adds complexity to growth and inflation expectations, creating the potential for market volatility if policies disappoint.
• Scott Bessent’s confirmation hearing highlighted a fiscally conservative bias with an emphasis on deficit reduction and tariffs as a multi-purpose tool for economic strategy.
• The uncertainty around trade policies may have a greater negative impact on global markets than tariffs themselves, emphasizing the high anticipation of Trump 2.0’s economic direction.

00:00 Introduction to The Long and Short
00:50 Monetary Policy in Japan
02:13 Waking the Doves?
03:56 Village People versus Global People
04:39 Buy Now, Pay Later?
05:43 Hearing differently?
07:47 The Long & Short of it…
08:29 Disclaimer and Legal Information

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

In this episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead,' Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss key macroeconomic themes influencing financial markets. They highlight the inauguration of the Trump administration as a major event, alongside discussions on US inflation trends, retail sales, and GDP data. The episode also covers weak economic data from the UK, an encouraging economic outlook for China, and predictions for the Bank of Japan's upcoming policy decisions. Additionally, the show provides a snapshot of upcoming global political and economic events.

00:00 Introduction and Overview
00:46 Global Macro Perspective
00:55 US Economic Data Insights
02:05 UK Economic Data Analysis
02:37 China's Economic Performance
02:47 Upcoming Week's Key Events
03:41 Focus on Japan
05:37 Trump Administration's Impact
07:56 Conclusion and Closing Remarks

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

Welcome to the Long & Short, an audio blog production by Eurizon SLJ Capital that takes a look at the macroeconomic themes of the past week and has been recorded for professional investors. This is an audio version of a LinkedIn newsletter written by Neil Staines, published on the 10th of January 2025.

In the first edition of 2025 of "The Long & Short," Neil Staines explores the impact of bond vigilantes on global markets and monetary policy: 

• The Bank of Japan is gradually moving toward policy normalisation. The debate centres on whether the next 25bp rate hike will occur in January or March.
• UK fiscal policy, perceived as a consumer-level tightening, has exacerbated market concerns, driving up yields and highlighting potential dovish shifts in monetary policy.
• We continue to see gradual disinflation and growth moderation, though unsustainable U.S. debt and fiscal policies could heighten market risks.
• Market assumptions about the inflationary and contractionary effects of Trump’s fiscal and immigration policies may be overly simplistic, risking mispriced expectations.
• The continuation of disinflation and growth moderation aligns with Fed projections, though higher U.S. yields pose challenges for the dynamics of government and corporate debt.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction to the Long and Short
00:25 Japanese Interest Rate Expectations
01:55 In Reeves we Trusst?
04:13 Top Trumps? 
05:46 Cuts both ways?
07:28 The Long & Short of it…
08:46 Disclaimer and Legal Information

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

In this episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead,' produced by Eurizon SLJ Capital, Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss the current macroeconomic themes dominated by expectations of policy evolution under Trump 2.0. The episode explores the complex UK macro backdrop, including Gilt market volatility, CPI, GDP, and retail sales forecasts. It also delves into European and Chinese economic dynamics, the impact of higher energy prices, and the trajectory of fiscal stimulus measures. The discussion includes the US economic outlook, focusing on the CPI and retail sales for December, the final week of the Biden administration, and the start of the Q4 earnings season. 

00:00 Introduction and Overview

00:48 UK Market Analysis

02:49 Global Economic Outlook

06:06 US Market Focus

08:17 Conclusion and Disclaimers

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

In this episode of 'The Long & Short,' Neil Staines from Eurizon SLJ Capital reviews key macroeconomic developments from the past week for professional investors. 

• Introduction (ECB Policy and Market Reactions): The ECB’s recent 25 basis point rate cut and modest forecast adjustments underscore its cautious approach amid risks from potential U.S. tariffs. Markets may have overestimated the likelihood of a more aggressive policy shift.
• Bank of Japan (BoJ): The BoJ maintained its rates at 0.25%, signalling continued caution in normalising policy despite rising inflation risks. Wage-price dynamics will be crucial ahead of the January meeting.
• Bank of England (BoE): The BoE held rates at 4.75%, with a surprising dissent for rate cuts, despite slower progress on disinflation (notably in wages). We maintain our weaker growth forecast relative to consensus. Fiscal-monetary dynamics will shape 2025 policy expectations.
• Federal Reserve (FOMC): The Fed’s 25 basis point rate cut was set against a more “hawkish” narrative, slowing the pace of 2025 cuts. Fiscal expansion underpins growth and inflation dynamics, with uncertainties linked to the Trump administration’s fiscal policies going forward.
• Inflation Outlook: Despite lingering shocks in housing and insurance, the Fed is optimistic about returning to target inflation, though higher 2024 inflation and Trump-era fiscal impacts add uncertainty.
• Macroeconomic Evolution: The U.S. fiscal backdrop, characterised by large deficits, has driven economic outperformance and inflation. Expectations hinge on whether a Trump administration would pivot toward fiscal conservatism.
• The Long & Short of it: The macroeconomic trajectory will depend on fiscal policies, setting the stage for further monetary policy adjustments in 2025.

00:00 Introduction and Overview
00:25 Last week
01:56 Land of the Rising Wages
03:17 Land of Hope and … more hope
05:01 Land of the free, and the home of the … unchecked fiscal expansion?
07:54 A Story is not just for Christmas
10:06 The Long & Short of it

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

This episode of 'The Long and Short,' an audio blog by Eurizon SLJ Capital, covers the macroeconomic themes from the past week, particularly focusing on recent data and central bank actions. The discussion, based on Neil Staines' LinkedIn newsletter, explores the anticipated rate cuts by the FOMC and ECB, driven by evolving economic indicators and policy directions. It delves into the significance of the November employment report, CPI figures, and ECB's recent rate adjustments. Additionally, it highlights the potential impacts of upcoming Trump administration policies on corporations and consumers and addresses the uncertainties and risk premiums that could shape the economic landscape in 2025.

00:00 Introduction and Overview
00:25 Macroeconomic Landscape and Fed Policy
02:22 Dovish Components
03:21 Growth Risks and Risk Premium
04:59 Inflated expectations?
06:19 The Long & Short of it
07:07 Disclaimer and Legal Information

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

In this episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead' from Eurizon SLJ Capital, Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss the week's macroeconomic themes, focusing on recent central bank actions and their implications for developed and emerging markets. Key discussions include rate changes and outlooks from the ECB, RBA, Bank of Canada, and Swiss National Bank, alongside market expectations for the Fed and Bank of Japan. The episode also touches on UK's economic data and its impact on the Bank of England's policy moves. Additional topics include the potential market volatility and the future of interest rates.

00:00 Market Volatility and Rate Cuts Overview
00:17 Introduction to the Podcast
00:42 Developed Market Monetary Policy Activity
04:16 UK Economic Outlook
05:59 US and Japan Economic Focus
08:52 Conclusion and Upcoming Events
10:26 Final Remarks and Disclaimers

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

In this episode of 'The Long and Short,' Eurizon SLJ Capital delves into significant macroeconomic events and themes from the past week, based on a LinkedIn newsletter by Neil Staines: 

• The nomination of Scott Bessent as US Treasury Secretary signals a potential shift towards fiscal conservatism, challenging expectations of expansive fiscal policy under Trump, with implications for inflation and the US yield curve.
• Fed minutes from November highlighted signs of a weakening consumer and potential risks in commercial real estate, with uncertainties around the neutral rate but reduced risks of a sharp labour market downturn.
• Mixed commentary from Fed officials points towards a likely 25bp rate cut in December unless significant data surprises emerge, with cautious signals about the pace of rate cuts in 2025.
• Economic data suggests weakening trends, including contractionary ISM indices and subdued Beige Book findings, indicating a slowing but modestly growing economy.
• While corporate sectors may benefit from potential Trump policies, a bifurcation between corporate and consumer economic conditions could lead to heightened volatility in 2025.
• Amid ongoing uncertainty and volatility, the Federal Reserve's December reaction function remains pivotal in shaping global macroeconomic narratives heading into 2025.

00:00 Introduction to the Long and Short
00:25 Scott Bessent's Nomination and Fiscal Policy
01:56 Minute detail
03:04 Talking the Talk
04:26 Walking the Walk
05:35 A Furc in the road?
06:23 The long and short of it…
07:10 Disclaimer and Legal Information

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

In this week's episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead' by Eurizon SLJ Capital, Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss essential macroeconomic themes for professional investors. The discussion includes anticipation around Japan's Bank of Japan meeting, insights into China's economic stimulus impact, analysis of the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate expectations, and political and economic events in Europe. The episode also highlights the upcoming focus on the U.S. CPI data and Federal Reserve reaction in December, as well as market expectations in Canada. 

00:00 Introduction and Overview
01:02 Focus on Asia: Japan and China
03:36 European Market Insights
07:00 North American Market Outlook
09:35 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

In this episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead', Matt Jones from Eurizon SLJ Capital discusses major macroeconomic themes and market events to watch with Neil Staines. The discussion covers the impact of geopolitical uncertainties, upcoming PMI data from various regions, labour cash earnings in Japan, and critical U.S. economic data that could influence Fed decisions. Additionally, the episode touches on central bank actions in New Zealand and Australia, projecting their future monetary policies. 

00:00 Introduction and Overview
00:39 Global Macro Dynamics
01:16 Key Economic Indicators to Watch
02:24 Focus on Australia and New Zealand
03:58 U.S. Economic Outlook
06:11 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.