Rising oil prices and bond yields are bringing the balance between inflation and growth into sharper focus. In this week’s episode of The Long and Short of the Week Ahead, Matt Jones and Neil Staines of Eurizon SLJ Capital discuss the implications for global markets and the economic calendar ahead.

In the UK, higher energy costs and gilt yields are adding pressure ahead of the 28 October Budget. The discussion considers the economy’s underlying fragility and the outlook for interest rates, with Bank of England commentary, consumer credit and the final second-quarter GDP release in focus. 

Global central banks continue to follow differing policy paths. Following decisions from the Swiss National Bank, Riksbank and Norges Bank, attention turns to an expected 25-basis-point Reserve Bank of Australia hike and the Bank of Japan’s summary of opinions. Eurozone inflation and European Central Bank commentary will help frame expectations for the timing of further rate increases. 

In the US, non-farm payrolls and PCE inflation headline the data calendar, with expectations for slower job growth and unchanged inflation readings. Consumer confidence, JOLTS job openings, ADP employment and ISM manufacturing provide further context, alongside Federal Reserve commentary and geopolitical developments. 

For professional investors only. Information, data and views are as at the time of recording. 

Chapters

00:00 Introduction
00:33 UK: Oil Prices and Rising Gilt Yields
01:43 UK Data and the October Budget
02:32 Global Central Banks and Inflation
04:44 US Payrolls, PCE Inflation and the Federal Reserve
06:44 Weekend Sport: Football, Cricket and Formula 1
07:33 The Long & Short Picks
07:55 Wrap-up and Disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.