Matt Jones and Neil Staines look ahead to a week shaped by UK political change, major economic releases, the ECB meeting and US earnings.

As Andy Burnham becomes Labour leader and Prime Minister, markets will assess his cabinet appointments, fiscal priorities and the potential implications for taxation, public spending and government borrowing. Employment, CPI, business-confidence and retail-sales data will provide fresh evidence on labour-market slack, inflation and underlying demand. Continued uncertainty around the Autumn Budget may also weigh on business investment.

Globally, the calendar includes Australian employment, German ZEW, eurozone consumer confidence and July’s flash PMIs. The ECB meeting takes centre stage, although President Lagarde is expected to offer limited forward guidance.

In the US, a light data calendar and the Fed blackout period shift attention towards Iran-related geopolitics, energy prices and Q2 earnings. Results from Google, Texas Instruments, Tesla and AT&T will intensify the debate around AI investment, semiconductor demand, earnings growth and valuations.

00:00 Show introduction
00:29 UK politics and economic data
02:40 ECB meeting and the global calendar
04:29 US geopolitics and Q2 earnings
05:51 Weekend sports watchlist
06:56 Long and short picks
07:20 Wrap-up and disclosures

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