Holding the Line: Inflation Risks, Weak Growth, and the Policy Dilemma

Eurizon SLJ Capital

Eurizon SLJ Capital
Holding the Line: Inflation Risks, Weak Growth, and the Policy Dilemma
Mar 20, 2026 Season 2026 Episode 12
Eurizon SLJ Capital

Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss the macro themes for the week ahead after a volatile week for central banks and markets amid uncertainty around the Iran situation. In the UK, the Bank of England held rates, struck a more hawkish tone with a 9–0 vote, and stressed inflation risks from elevated energy prices, though growth vulnerability and rising unemployment risks keep a high bar for hikes and support an ultimately needed, delayed rate-cut path; upcoming UK CPI and retail sales are key. Globally, the ECB, SNB, Riksbank, and Bank of Canada also held rates while balancing upside inflation and downside growth risks; the Bank of Japan stayed on a hawkish path; and the RBA hiked to 4.1%. Next week features global flash PMIs, Aussie CPI, German IFO, and ECB commentary. In the US, the Fed held rates with mildly dovish projections but a hawkish press conference; attention turns to Trump, risk assets, oil, Treasuries, and eased big-bank capital requirements.

00:00 Show Intro
00:27 UK Outlook BoE
02:36 Global Central Banks
04:32 Week Ahead Data
05:23 US After FOMC
07:28 Weekend Sports Talk
08:15 Long And Short Picks
08:30 Wrap Up And Disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

Episode Artwork Holding the Line: Inflation Risks, Weak Growth, and the Policy Dilemma 9:48 Episode Artwork From the Bank of England to the Fed: Policy Under Pressure 10:11 Episode Artwork Forecasts and Fragility: UK Spring Statement, US CPI, and China’s Growth Tolerance 9:03 Episode Artwork From China’s Two Sessions to US Payrolls: A Consequential Week Ahead 7:50 Episode Artwork Three Drivers for the Week Ahead: UK Cuts, Aussie CPI, US Geopolitics 8:14 Episode Artwork Repricing Risk: UK Data, Antipodean Policy, and US GDP 9:04 Episode Artwork Policy Paths: UK Dovishness, US Data, Japan Risk 8:56 Episode Artwork From Threadneedle Street to Payrolls: The Week Ahead in Macro 9:00 Episode Artwork USDJPY Intervention Watch and the Week of Central Banks 8:56 Episode Artwork Davos, Data, and Earnings: What Markets Are Watching 8:04 Episode Artwork Central Banks, Inflation Data, and the Global Rate Outlook 7:57 Episode Artwork 2026 Begins with Inflation, the Fed, and the Labour Market 9:55 Episode Artwork Data-Driven Fed, BoJ Watch, and a Key Week for the Bank of England 8:26 Episode Artwork Monetary Crossroads: Global Rate Paths and the Fed’s 2026 Lens 8:21 Episode Artwork Inflation, Weak Growth, and What Comes Next for the UK 8:04 Episode Artwork Fiscal Strains, Hawkish Signals, and the Return of US Data 8:26 Episode Artwork Holding, Waiting, Watching: The UK, China, and U.S. in Focus 7:17 Episode Artwork The Bank of England’s Balancing Act & the Fed's Dilemma 9:50 Episode Artwork Central Banks, CPI, and the Big Macro Balancing Act 7:39 Episode Artwork A Budget, A Blackout, and A Billion-Dollar Shutdown 7:45 Episode Artwork Driving in the Dark: Markets Await Clarity 7:01 Episode Artwork Uncertainty Everywhere: Japan, Europe, and the US Shutdown 7:59 Episode Artwork Yen, Yields, and Payrolls: A Critical Week for Markets 7:19 Episode Artwork From Dots to Data: Monetary Policy in Focus 7:51 Episode Artwork Cuts Delayed, Cuts Ahead: The UK and US in Focus 8:13