Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss macro themes for the week ahead for professional investors. In the UK, recent data show unemployment at a new cycle high of 5.2% (above COVID highs), conflicting private vs public pay trends, and CPI signals of underlying weakness as administered prices drop out of annual comparisons; inflation is expected to return to target by mid-year, and UK 10-year yields are ~25 bps lower over two weeks. Next week’s UK watchpoints include consumer confidence and comments from MPC members at both dovish and hawkish ends, as markets debate whether the next rate cut is in March or April; Eurizon SLJ expects sooner and faster cuts than the MPC/market. In Australia, RBA minutes were non-committal but hawkish amid wages and high unit labour costs; January CPI next week will be key for assessing hike urgency. Other global items include Germany’s February CPI and retail sales, Japan’s retail sales and industrial production plus fiscal-plan commentary, multiple employment reports (Poland, Mexico, Turkey, Hungary, Colombia), a South Korean central bank rate decision, and South Africa’s budget. In the US, FOMC minutes suggest a shift away from labour-market risks back toward inflation risks as growth stays robust; geopolitical risks (including the Iran standoff) and higher oil prices, AI capex monetisation concerns, software brokerage disruption, private credit contagion worries, and NVIDIA earnings are highlighted amid a light data calendar, with volatility still viewed as cheap. 

00:00 Welcome & What to Watch in the Week Ahead
00:27 UK Macro Update: Jobs, Inflation, Yields & BoE Cut Timing
02:22 Australia in Focus: RBA Minutes, Wages & Next Week’s CPI
03:18 Global Roundup: Europe, Japan, EM Data & Key Central Bank Events
04:01 US Outlook: FOMC Tone Shift, Geopolitics, AI/Earnings & Volatility
05:35 Weekend Sports Preview: Football, Curling, Cricket & Six Nations
07:00 Closing Thanks & Important Disclaimers

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.