The Inner Game of Change

Mental Models For Managing Change - The Planning Fallacy

• Ali Juma

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Welcome to a very special mini-series on The Inner Game of Change. I’m thrilled to take you on this journey as we explore something both timeless and practical: Mental Models for Managing Change. 

Now, before we step into today’s topic, let’s revisit something we mention in every episode, what is a mental model anyway?

A mental model is a way of seeing, a framework that helps us interpret complexity, solve problems, and make better decisions.
 You can think of it like a mental lens. The clearer it is, the better we navigate uncertainty and lead with intention.

In our last episode, we explored Chunking — a model about breaking big challenges into small, manageable pieces so we can make steady progress without feeling overwhelmed.

Today, we are staying in that space between vision and execution. Because once we’ve broken things down into chunks, the next trap is how we estimate the time and effort those chunks will take.

And that’s where today’s mental model comes in — The Planning Fallacy.


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Ali Juma
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Speaker 1:

Hi everyone and welcome back to Mental Models for Managing Change. I am Ali Jemam and if you've been on this journey with me from the beginning, I just want to say thank you. This is the final episode in our 15-part mini-series and I'm so glad you're here for it. Part mini-series and I'm so glad you're here for it. Now, before we jump in, let's quickly revisit what a mental model actually is. A mental model is a way of seeing, a framework that helps us make sense of complexity, solve problems and make better decisions. Think of it like a map for your thinking. The clearer the model, the more confidently we can navigate change and the uncertainty that comes with it. In our last episode, we explored chunking, breaking big, daunting change into smaller, more manageable pieces. It is how we reduce overwhelm and build momentum, how we reduce overwhelm and build momentum. Today we are finishing on a model that is deceptively simple but quietly powerful the planning policy. It is the tendency we all have, as individuals, teams and even entire organizations, to underestimate how long things will take, how complex they really are and what they will cost in terms of energy, effort and time. Sound familiar? You think we can finish this project in three months. Reality it takes six. You promise we'll go alive before the semester starts. Reality we're still testing workflows two weeks in, and the thing is, it's not because we are bad at planning, it's because we are human.

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The planning fallacy was first coined by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Versky, two pioneers in behavioral economics. They found that we tend to plan based on best-case scenarios, forgetting how often the past tells a different story. In change work, this shows up everywhere, in undercooked timelines, over-ambitious roadmaps and well-intentioned commitments that quietly exhaust the teams behind them. Let me give you a real example. Back in the early 20s, the Sydney Opera House renovation was meant to be a straightforward upgrade, but costs ballooned, timelines flipped and what was supposed to take a few years dragged on for more than a decade. Why? Because the plan was built on optimism, not precedent.

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This is not about being cynical. It is about being wiser. So what can we do? Here are three strategies that help tackle the planning policy. One use reference class forecasting Instead of just planning from scratch.

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Ask how long did similar projects actually take? This grounds your plan in lived data, not wishful thinking. Two build in buffers and mean them. Do not treat buffers as luxury. Treat them as reality insurance. Time for the unexpected is time well spent? Three test your optimism. Ask your team if we had to bet on this timeline, would we still back it? That simple question can serve as hidden concerns, before they turn into delays. Your reflection for the week Think of a project you are planning or one you are part of. Ask are we planning for the work or for the ideal version of the work? What could we learn from the last time we tried something similar? Because the goal is not just to plan beautifully, it is to plan truthfully, and truthful plans build trust, and trust fuels change.

Speaker 1:

And now, a personal note this is the last episode in the Mental Models for Managing Change miniseries 15 episodes One wild, wonderful journey for me, and I hope it was for you. When I started this series, my hope was simple to offer timeless ways of thinking that could help you, whether you're a change leader, a manager, a coach or simply someone who wants to navigate this messy thing we call transformation. Your messages, your shares and your reflections they've meant the world to me. Thank you for tuning in and for letting me part of your learning, for tuning in and for letting me part of your learning. If these episodes made a difference for you. I'd love it if you shared them with a colleague, with a team or a community.

Speaker 1:

And if you want to keep going deeper, check out my other podcast, the Inner Game of Change, where I host raw, honest conversations with people who are shaping the future of work, learning and leadership. For now, I'll leave you with this Plans are nothing. Planning is everything. This is Dwight Eisenhower, and before I go, I want to share something personal. It is my intention to keep learning and sharing with you. This mini-series may be wrapping up, but the journey is far from over. Very soon, I'll be launching another mini-series, one that looks at change from a different angle, a new lens, a fresh set of questions, because if there's one thing I've learned through all of this time, it is that the way we think about change shapes how we move through it. So stay tuned and, until then, keep walking, keep questioning and keep looking up from the map. See you soon. Thank you.

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Ali Juma

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