Angola protest death toll climbs as anger over fuel price hike continues

Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Owen Bonertz discuss the deadly fuel price protests in Angola, plus more on a tariff deadline in the U.S., DHS ending Temporary Protected Status for Cameroon and Nepal, the two-year anniversary of the imprisonment of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan and independence day in Bolivia.

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This episode includes work from Factal editors Owen Bonertz, David Wyllie, Awais Ahmad, Agnese Boffano and Jeff Landset. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe. 

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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is July 31, 2025.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got deadly protests in Angola, a tariff deadline in the US, DHS ending Temporary Protected Status for Cameroon and Nepal, the two-year anniversary of the imprisonment of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan and independence day in Bolivia. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Angola unrest

Interview featuring Owen Bonertz

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the recent unrest in Angola. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Owen Bonertz.

JIMMY: Hello, Owen. 

OWEN: Hey, Jimmy. How are you? 

JIMMY: I'm great. It's been a crazy week/month/year of news, however, but now it looks like we're going to add to that some more. There's been some pretty notable protests in Angola. So I guess to start, you know, just let us know – what's going on there?

OWEN: Yeah, I think "protest" is selling it a little bit shortly. Thus far across the country, since Monday July 28, according to the most recent update from the national police commander, 22 people have been killed and at least 200 have been injured. Most of the rioting has taken place in the city of Luanda, but there's also been major demonstrations and reports of looting in cities of Calumbo, which is kind of like a Luanda suburb, as well as the second biggest city, Benguela, and the third, Huambo. The, sort of, whole movement was kind of sparked in the beginning of July, when the government announced a hike in the price of fuel. Like a lot of oil-producing countries in the world, the price of fuel is actually subsidized and kind of set centrally by the government. And in the beginning of July, that price was increased from 300 kwanzas a liter to 400 kwanzaas a liter, for both diesel and petroleum. That would make the new price roughly equivalent to about $1.76 a gallon, which, of course, is quite cheap to us Americans, but on an Angolan salary is pretty unsustainable. And so this fuel price hike in particular angered the country's taxi drivers union ANATA. And so in the beginning of July, ANATA announced a planned strike, beginning on this Monday, July 28, and extending until today, July 30. And when ANATA kind of shut down the transportation system in Luanda, where so many people rely on their taxis, that, in turn, caused regular citizens who were not affiliated with the union to come out into the streets.

JIMMY: What's the latest? There been any new developments?

OWEN: Yeah, so as of today, Wednesday, the situation appears to be slightly better and more in control than it was on Monday and Tuesday. For example, the public buses in the city of Luanda have started running again. On Monday and Tuesday a lot of people, kind of in solidarity with the taxi drivers, were actually attacking the public buses that were on the streets. Also, I think it's important to, like, communicate in this context, that a taxi in Angola means something very different than, like, your yellow cab taxi in New York City. They're essentially minivans that can hold as many as maybe 15 people, and they are essentially the main form of transportation for people in urban Angola as well as really all African capitals at this point. I think by some estimates, 45% of all trips in the city of Luanda are made in these taxis, and the vast majority of commuters as well, because they don't really have public transport and the average citizen can't afford a car. So the role of the taxis is huge in just getting people to work and making the city function. And you know, because of that, them deciding to go on strike has been really disruptive, not just for transportation, but just for all businesses. There's been reports that most public markets are shut down. Most banks are shut down. Fuel stations have been shut down. And for their part, the taxi drivers’ union has actually kind of distanced themselves from some of the looting and the violence that has gone on. After Monday, where four people died – as opposed to the current death toll of 22 – the national branch of the taxi drivers union decided to end the strike. But the more local branches, like the one in Luanda and Huambo, kind of ignored this advice and decided to continue not running their taxis on those days. So the the movement has has really, like, grown outside of the strike, and there's a lot of reports of school children, and just young people in general, out in the streets, either demonstrating peacefully or kind of taking advantage of the chaos, and, you know, showing their general dissatisfaction with the with the government, and not just the fuel price hike.

JIMMY: Well, what kind of reactions have you seen all this?

OWEN: Yeah, the central government of Angola – which is run by a party named the MPLA, they've been in power since 1975 – for their part, have kind of been insisting that everything is fine. They said today that the security situation in the country is stable, and the president of the country, Joao Lourenco, has not delivered any sort of national address or mentioned any sort of commitment to rolling back the fuel price hike. He has called an emergency meeting of his ministers in Luanda on Wednesday, but in general, I think they're taking the position that this will blow over. There have been journalists reporting larger numbers of security forces in the cities, especially Luanda, and almost all of the deaths so far have been linked to the police shooting people who were attempting to loot businesses. In particular, there were some reports that six people were killed just in the Luanda neighborhood of Cazenga. The Angolan opposition has also come out and kind of used this situation to get their names in the press, and called for a national dialog and more negotiation between the taxi drivers and the central government. But they are not particularly close to holding power in the country, and the next election is not until 2027, so these are words more than anything.

JIMMY: Well, considering all this, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next then?

OWEN: Yeah, I think the main thing to watch is just to see if these protests and riots continue past Wednesday. The strike was always scheduled to end Wednesday, the day that we're recording this, but as I've mentioned, it's kind of grown into something bigger than than the taxi drivers and there's definitely [a] possibility for more violence. Like I mentioned, I don't really see this challenging the government of Joao Lourenco. His party, as I mentioned earlier, has been in power since 1975 and independence, and they have been winning elections of, you know, various degrees of fairness since 1992. Lourenco himself will not be able to run in 2027 – he's been term-limited – and he hasn't really chosen, like, a clear successor, so that would definitely be something to watch as well. Just generally, in Angolan politics, who he chooses will really change the outcome of 2027, especially considering that his last election, 2022, was closer than most in the past, and the opposition UNITA party actually did pretty good. They got about 45% of the vote, where in the past it was much less. And because of that, some people have said that Lourenco's government has actually been, kind of, more responsive to the needs of the people, in particular in addressing corruption. Prior to 2022, a lot of global corruption rankings had Angola very, very high. But since then, his government kind of ran in 2022 on addressing this, and has, by most rankings. You know, Angola has moved from being the most corrupt country in the world to a slightly less corrupt country. In particular, they've gone after the formerly richest woman in Africa, Isabel dos Santos, who's actually the daughter of the former president. And just in general, this has been like a big part of his administration. So, that's something to watch for [in] politics moving forward. And then, I think another important thing to mention about Angola and about this particular protest movement is, like so many protest movements, it's tied into cost of living, and it's perhaps been particularly centered in Luanda, because Luanda has an exceptionally high cost of living for sub-Saharan Africa. There's a lot of oil wealth and international oil workers who are there that drive up the price of rent and the price of food, to the extent that, you know, your your cost of living and your daily expenses, even after conversion, are, you know, roughly the same as living in North America, whereas the average Angolan worker is making much, much less than that, perhaps less than than $1,000 a year. So that's kind of at the core of this situation, is that Luanda is particularly expensive, and the government, by raising the price of fuel has just made it more expensive.

JIMMY: Well, Owen, we'll have to pause there for today, but as usual, thanks for the briefing and for keeping an eye on the region for us. Always appreciate it. 

OWEN: Excellent. Thanks, Jimmy.

Trump's reciprocal tariffs set to go into effect

Information compiled by David Wyllie

JIMMY: The U.S. is set to impose a set of tariffs on numerous trading partners unless deals are reached by Friday to prevent them.

If the tariffs go into effect, they could lead to disruption in global supply chains, market instability and consumer unease.

President Trump announced in April that a deadline would be set for early August. 

He stressed there would be no exemptions or deadlines – a move seen as a pushback against jibes from market traders that he always chickens out. 

Talks with the European Union, United Kingdom and Japan have led to agreements with decreased exposure to tariffs. 

Talks between the U.S. and China are continuing with hopes of an extension that could put off potential tariffs and market shocks in favor of further negotiations.

Now, any triggering of tariffs could lead to market instability and a flurry of diplomatic activity to attempt to reverse them. 

This could be exacerbated by potential disquiet from domestic U.S. consumers expected to foot the bill through price increases. 

The IMF, which upgraded global growth forecasts, said their sunnier projections could be risked by new tariffs.

DHS ends protections for Cameroon and Nepal

Information compiled by Awais Ahmad

JIMMY: The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) will end Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Cameroon and Nepal on Tuesday.

Cameroon was granted that status in 2022 amid violence from multiple armed conflicts such as those involving extremist groups in the Far North Region, including Boko Haram. They also include clashes between English-speaking separatists and the French-speaking government in the Northwest and Southwest regions. 

Meanwhile, Nepal received its Temporary Protected Status in the aftermath of the devastating 2015 earthquake that left as many as 9,000 people dead and destroyed or damaged more than 600,000 structures in the Kathmandu area alone.

Now, according to the DHS, conflicts in Cameroon are now largely regional and no longer pose enough of a nationwide threat to justify the [Temporary] Protected Status. They also say that improved disaster response, preparedness and infrastructure no longer qualifies Nepal for the designation. 

And since the status does not lead to permanent residency, Cameroonian and Nepalese nationals will be required to seek other legal immigration options or risk becoming undocumented and subject to deportation.

Two-year anniversary of Imran Khan imprisonment

Information compiled by Agnese Boffano

JIMMY: Pakistan’s Tehreek-e-Insaf Party will commemorate the two-year anniversary of the imprisonment of former Prime Minister Imran Khan on Tuesday.

Khan was sentenced to 14 years in jail on charges of corruption following his arrest in August of 2023. 

Since then, the party and members of the opposition have called for his release, accusing the government of conducting a “politically motivated unfair trial.” 

Several previous protests have turned violent, with severe government crackdown on protesters that have at times brought the capital Islamabad to a standstill.

Now, Khan’s party has called for internal unity ahead of the planned nationwide protests to mark the anniversary, with several members of his family, potentially including Khan’s two UK-based sons, set to attend. 

These demonstrations will mark the first nationwide rallies since the government announced the formation of a new national paramilitary force, whose duties include “internal security, riot control and counter-terrorism.” 

Rights groups argue this new force could be used as a means to repress the political opposition.

Bolivia independence day

Information compiled by Jeff Landset

JIMMY: Bolivians will celebrate the country’s bicentennial on Wednesday. Of course, it comes at a time of extreme political upheaval and a presidential election just days afterward.

In its nearly two centuries, Bolivia has seen dozens of presidents but few as popular as Evo Morales. 

He was the country’s first indigenous president and held office from 2006 until 2019 as a member of the socialist party. 

In his resignation announcement, he said he was forced out by a coup and fled the country for several months until current President Luis Arce was inaugurated. 

Following Morales’ return, he had a well-publicized falling out with Arce and was issued an arrest warrant for allegedly trafficking a 15-year-old girl. 

He was also banned from running for president in the upcoming election, which will have its first round of voting on Aug. 17.

Now, Morales’ disqualification led to protests around the country from the indigenous community that forms the base of his support. 

His followers have demonstrated on his behalf, including blockading multiple roads. 

Still, an official planning the festivities leading up to Wednesday has said those actions have been disruptive and led to a downturn in tourism.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors David Wyllie, Awais Ahmad, Agnese Boffano and Jeff Landset. Our interview featured editor Owen Bonertz and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

Copyright © 2025 Factal. All rights reserved.

Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe