Factal Forecast

Netanyahu pushes for Gaza occupation despite rising humanitarian concerns

• Episode 193

Share episode

Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Ahmed Namatalla discuss Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's reported plan to re-occupy the Gaza Strip, plus more on Trump wanting a deal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, a Federal Reserve governor stepping down, the anniversary of a doctor's murder in India, and Armenia and the U.S. holding military drills.

Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify and many more. 

These stories and others are also available in our free weekly Forecast newsletter.

This episode includes work from Factal editors Ahmed Namatalla, Awais Ahmad, Owen Bonertz, Hua Hsieh and David Wyllie. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe. 

Have feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed? Drop us a note: hello@factal.com

What's Factal? Created by the founders of Breaking News, Factal alerts companies to global incidents that pose an immediate risk to their people or business operations. We provide trusted verification, precise incident mapping and a collaboration platform for corporate security, travel safety and emergency management teams. 

If you're a company interested in a trial, please email sales@factal.com. To learn more, visit Factal.com, browse the Factal blog or email us at hello@factal.com.

Read the full episode description and transcript on Factal's blog.

Copyright © 2025 Factal. All rights reserved.

This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.


JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Aug. 7, 2025.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got Israel pushing to re-occupy Gaza, Trump wanting a deal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, a Federal Reserve governor stepping down, the anniversary of a doctor's murder in India, and Armenia and the US holding joint military drills. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.


Israel pushing to occupy Gaza

Interview featuring Ahmed Namatalla

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at what the Israeli prime minister reportedly has in store for Gaza. For more on that I’ve got the lead for our Middle East desk, Ahmed Namatalla.

JIMMY: Hello, Ahmed, 

AHMED: Hi, Jimmy. 

JIMMY: Ahmed, I'm glad you're here. And I guess to start, can you give us a bit of a recap on the current situation in Gaza? You know, what's Netanyahu planning here?

AHMED: Jimmy, the situation in Gaza is little changed since the last time we talked, I think about a month ago. There's still no ceasefire. There are still about 50 Israeli captives in the Gaza Strip, about 20 of whom are estimated to still be alive. And while Israel has allowed some food and medicine to enter the territory, it is far below what the population needs. Some of it is even being dropped from military planes from the sky, which endangers the population below and has, in fact, caused dozens of injuries. The U.S.-backed aid distribution mechanism in the territory isn't working. Dozens of Palestinians have been shot and killed just trying to reach those sites, and what all of this adds up to is starvation on a wide scale among the Palestinian population. These are charges that Israel denies, but nevertheless, it's the fact on the ground, according to the UN, multiple aid agencies, and even allies of Israel itself and members of Israel's own political system. So where we stand is that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has, instead of scaling back military operations, wants to escalate one more time and take over what little Palestinian territory in Gaza [is] still not under Israeli control. And according to a report that is just out on Israel's public broadcaster, that takeover would, quote, encourage what they call “voluntary” migration. There's of course no indication that Palestinians want to leave their land, so it would have, in effect, be forced expulsion.

JIMMY: What's the latest, other than that?  You know, what other developments have you seen?

AHMED: Well, the most – notably, we're seeing the return of the mass anti-war protests inside Israel, specifically in the cities of Tel Aviv and Haifa. We're seeing a more pronounced international reaction to this latest escalation, notably by European countries, France and the UK, to recognize a state of Palestine. They're saying they're going to do this as early as next month, and they're conditioning it on Israelian inaction. So you can see it as being a way to incentivize Israel to end the war. One other country, Canada, has said that it would recognize a Palestinian state within the same time frame, but it is conditioning its recognition on the Palestinian Authority's ability to demilitarize the entire Palestinian territories, something of course, that would be very hard to implement, since the Palestinian Authority has no control over Gaza and very little control over the West Bank, to be sure. So meanwhile, Israel's next door [neighbor] Egypt is growing more unstable amid domestic discontent with the government's inaction and closure of the Rafah border. Last week, we saw a rare televised speech that was unprompted by the Egyptian president defending his policy toward Gaza and blaming Israel and other parties that he didn't name, but obviously he's pointing at the U.S. for the humanitarian catastrophe there. So everything is going in the opposite direction of de-escalation and stability right now.

JIMMY: Well, what sort of reactions to the occupation plan reports have you seen?

AHMED: Egypt is obviously not happy, as are the rest of Arab countries. There was a recent declaration by other Arab countries, including Egypt – but notably Saudi Arabia, Jordan and some Gulf countries – that called for a ceasefire, and notably, for the end of Hamas' role -- the Palestinian militant group's role -- in governing Gaza. That would be in line with what the U.S. is demanding. Inside the U.S., it is worth noting that while the Trump administration continues to back Israel, with both militarily and politically, we've seen some gaps in how what is being done in Gaza is perceived. President Trump himself has said that what is happening in Gaza amounts to starvation. Again, that is something that the Israelis deny. And we've seen more members of the U.S. House side with the Palestinians, in a way, and also the Senate. Notably, we've seen U.S. lawmakers increasingly talk about starvation in Gaza and distance themselves from Israeli politics there.

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

AHMED: What we're really watching for is how Israel moves forward with these plans, that are being widely publicized now, to take over the entirety of Gaza Strip that would include a major military operation into Gaza City and also in the refugee camps in the central part of the territory. That is where a large part of the Palestinian population still remains. And if reports in Israeli state media are accurate, [the] plan would be to push Palestinians into a single area, and that would be Mawasi. They would be surrounded by Israel's military on one side, and the Mediterranean Sea on the other, with nowhere to go. And so, according to that report by the Israeli broadcaster, the plan would aim to push the Palestinians out of the strip entirely. And it's not clear how they plan to do that, because Egypt remains resistant to the idea of hosting Palestinians in Sinai territory; Palestinians themselves don't want to leave their land, and so we will be at a crossroads. And it's hard to see how the war could end on that note, without further escalation, either by militants fighting back within Gaza or externally, with perhaps a deterioration of the relationship with Egypt, or, who knows, there could be other international intervention at that point.

JIMMY: Well, Ahmed, we'll have to pause there for today then, but thank you so much for your time and for keeping us informed. Always appreciate it.

AHMED: Thanks, Jimmy.


Trump wants deal to end Russia's war in Ukraine

Information compiled by Awais Ahmad

JIMMY: U.S. President Donald Trump has given Russia until Friday to negotiate a peace deal with Ukraine or face new sanctions.

Frustrated by Russia’s ongoing attacks on civilians and stalling peace talks, Trump shortened his initial 50-day deadline. 

He also ordered two nuclear submarines to be repositioned in the region following remarks by Russian military leader and former President Dmitry Medvedev. 

Meanwhile, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff was in Moscow yesterday to push for progress in peace talks. 

Now, tomorrow’s deadline raises pressure on Russia as peace talks remain stalled and the violence continues.

Still, while peace talks have led to multiple prisoner swaps, a ceasefire agreement remains an unlikely outcome at this time.


Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler to step down

Information compiled by Owen Bonertz

JIMMY: One of the Federal Reserve’s seven governors will leave her position on Friday, opening a key position for the Trump administration to fill in the central bank.

Adriana Kugler was nominated by Biden in 2023, and served on a board of governors that oversaw the country’s economic “soft-landing” over the COVID-19 economic crisis. 

Since 2023, the country’s interest rates have been largely flat, after having been hiked significantly in 2022 to slow inflation. 

Kugler did not give a clear reason for resignation, but stated that she will be returning to academia. 

For his part, Trump said he believed that Kugler is resigning due to disagreements with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell over cutting the central bank’s interest rates.

Now, the Trump administration will now have the opportunity to fill the seat with a loyalist, perhaps someone poised to take Jerome Powell’s chairman position at the end of his tenure in 2026. 

The American economy has largely stagnated in the first year of the current Trump administration, and Trump has pushed for interest rates to be lowered, going as far as to threaten Jerome Powell’s job at times. 

Finally, if the effects of the Republican administration’s tariff policies continue to pile up into the fall, a rate hike is possible, especially with a fiscal “dove” on the board of the Federal Reserve.   


March marking anniversary of West Bengal doctor's murder

Information compiled by Hua Hsieh

JIMMY: Junior doctors in India’s Kolkata will rally Friday. They’ll do so to commemorate the one-year anniversary of the assault and murder of a doctor trainee.

In August 2024, the rape and killing of a trainee doctor at Kolkata’s government-run R G Kar Medical College and Hospital sparked nationwide protests by doctors and women’s groups. 

Furious at the government’s failure to bring down rising violence against women, junior doctors went on a month-long strike demanding greater workplace safety for women and justice for their murdered colleague. 

A police volunteer was arrested in connection to the trainee doctor’s death while the former principal of the college was charged over alleged graft. Kolkata’s police chief was also replaced. 

Now, despite tougher laws introduced after a notorious gang rape and murder in New Delhi in 2012, India struggles with a high number of rape cases and a low conviction rate. 

West Bengal Junior Doctor’s Front, the organizer of the upcoming march, has called for further actions from the government and says that only a “democratic environment” at educational facilities could prevent such “threat culture.”


Armenia, US to hold joint military drills

Information compiled by David Wyllie

JIMMY: Armenia and the United States are set to hold joint military exercises starting Tuesday. That, as Armenia seeks deeper involvement with the West.

A tentative peace deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia was announced in March, putting the end of a decades-long conflict within sight. 

A memorandum of understanding, outlining the basic principles of a long-term peace deal, is expected to be signed in Washington in the near future, potentially with President Donald Trump’s backing. 

Russia has been frozen out of this process, with Baku and Yerevan seeking to engage with each other rather than through a preoccupied Moscow. 

That, in turn, gives the United States leverage in a part of the world contested by numerous nations. 

Armenia’s relationship with Russia has deteriorated in recent years, after it came off worse in recent phases of the conflict and saw little help from Moscow. 

A high–profile U.S.-backed peace deal and the upcoming military exercise may swing it further into Washington’s camp.

Now, according to Armenia’s Defense Ministry, the exercise, known as Eagle Partner 2025, will focus on peacekeeping operations and medical evacuation procedures. 

Still, it will be closely watched by numerous regional players including Azerbaijan, its backer Turkey, and Russia, which has a military base inside Armenia.


JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Awais Ahmad, Owen Bonertz, Hua Hsieh and David Wyllie. Our interview featured editor Ahmed Namatalla and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com


This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

Copyright © 2025 Factal. All rights reserved.

Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe