Factal Forecast

Trump deploys National Guard to DC in move critics call authoritarian power grab

• Episode 194

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Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Joe Veyera discuss U.S. President Donald Trump's controversial move to temporarily take over Washington, D.C., police and deploy the National Guard, plus more on elections in Nigeria and Bolivia and a possible peace deal between the Democratic Republic of Congo and the M23 rebel group.

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This episode includes work from Factal editors Joe Veyera, David Wyllie, Agnese Boffano, Matthew Hipolito and Theresa Seiger. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe. 

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Read the full episode description and transcript on Factal's blog.

Copyright © 2025 Factal. All rights reserved.

This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.


JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Aug. 14, 2025.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got Trump’s D.C. police takeover, Trump meeting with Russia’s Putin in Alaska, elections in Nigeria and Bolivia and a possible peace deal between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the M23 rebel group. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.


Trump sends National Guard to DC

Interview featuring Joe Veyera

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at Trump’s controversial takeover of Washington, DC’s police. For more on that I’ve got the lead for our North America coverage, Joe Veyera.

JIMMY: Hello, Joe. 

JOE: Hey, Jimmy. How's it going? 

JIMMY: It goes well. I'm glad you're here. 2025 has brought a lot of surprises in the news, not the least of which is what's unfolding in D.C. at the moment, and I'm hoping you can tell us all about it. So what's going on?

JOE: Well – and it's only August, if you can imagine that. So the president declared a public safety emergency in the nation's capital on Monday, invoking the Home Rule Act of 1973. And what this did was two things. For one, approximately 800 National Guard troops were activated as part of what they're calling the “D.C. Safe and Beautiful Task Force,” with about 100 to 200 of them supporting law enforcement. And on that note, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also said that other Guard units beyond the D.C. National Guard are “ready to participate if called upon.” We don't know what that might look like. The other part of this declaration is federal control of the city's police department.

JIMMY: Well, what kind of reactions to all this have you seen?

JOE: It's pretty much what you would expect along party lines: Republicans say it's a good thing, while Democrats say it's another example of federal overreach from this administration. And in particular, I want to get into the crime rates that are being cited on both sides here. So on one hand, D.C. does have higher rates of violent crime and murder than most major U.S. cities. That is true. What's also true is that those numbers have fallen from their 2023 post-COVID peak, and that kind of raises the question of, why is this public safety emergency being declared now? What is the impetus, if those numbers were dropping?

JIMMY: Now, what's the latest? There been any new developments?

JOE: Yes, there's been a couple. So on Monday night, we had 23 arrests, on Tuesday night into Wednesday, there were another 43, in the first two days of these operations, and they're also transitioning to 24/7 operations on Wednesday night. The first couple of days had just been evening and overnight hours. Now the president has the constitutional authority to federalize the police for 30 days unless Congress acts to extend it. And we're not entirely sure what that might look like on the part of Congress. But during a press conference on Wednesday, President Trump floated the possibility of declaring a national emergency if there isn't congressional action to keep this going for longer than the 30 days. He also said the administration would seek “long-term extensions” to this authority. So He clearly doesn't view this as a ‘one month and done’ sort of operation.

JIMMY: Well, considering that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next then?

JOE: Well, in the past few days, we've heard the president mention some other cities for having high crime rates, particularly Chicago, Los Angeles, Baltimore, and Oakland, Calif. The thing about that is he lacks the constitutional authority to do this kind of deployment in those places. The whole point of the Home Rule Act is that D.C. doesn't have a governor, for instance, and that kind of delineation between actions just doesn't exist in those states, as opposed to D.C. Now, whether lacking the constitutional authority to do these deployments, and actually attempting to do them, might be two different stories. Of course, we can go back to June when you saw the National Guard deployed in Los Angeles during the protests over immigration raids. And on that note, there's actually a trial underway this week over whether the federal government could legally do such a thing. So we'll have to watch to see if the administration wants to act to do further deployments in other cities, and then what that would look like going through the court system, because any move like that would surely trigger legal action.

JIMMY: Well, Joe, we’ll pause there for today, but I suspect this will be something we might be visiting again in the future. But thank you so much for your time. I appreciate it 

JOE: Anytime, but I have a feeling you'll have me back.


Putin-Trump meeting in Alaska

Information compiled by David Wyllie

JIMMY: U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet in Alaska tomorrow to discuss the ongoing war in Ukraine. 

The U.S. has been teasing a potential deal format that has left Ukraine and its European partners concerned.

This will be Putin’s first trip to the U.S. since his visit to New York for the United Nations General Assembly in 2015. 

As you may recall, that’s where he received a frosty reception from then-President Barack Obama in the wake of his 2014 annexation of Crimea. 

Trump last met Putin at the G20 summit in Japan in 2019 during his first presidential term but has held frequent calls with Moscow as he tries to notch up another peace deal. 

Trump, keen to end a war he sees as costly and not in the interests of the U.S., has said he will be looking to get some of Ukraine’s territory back in some kind of land swap, which would return to a situation similar to the pre-2022 invasion. 

Russia is likely to only accept a deal that recognizes its territorial gains in the Donbas and also its annexation of Crimea.

Now, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has previously ruled out any acceptance of terms that would cede Ukrainian territory to Russia. 

He may not have much of a choice, though, facing a complete shutoff of U.S. war material and other types of support if he doesn’t accept a deal. 

European leaders, shut out from the talks, have voiced continued support for Ukraine, as they hope that Trump’s sudden turn back to Putin reverses in due course.


Nigeria by-elections

Information compiled by Agnese Boffano

JIMMY: Nigeria will hold its by-elections on Saturday across 16 constituencies in a dozen states.

The election set to impact some 3.5 million registered voters will aim to fill vacant seats at the National Assembly and the state Houses of Assembly. 

Those vacancies result from previous resignations, deaths and annulments. 

And despite claims by Nigeria’s Labour Party that it nominated a candidate for the key Edo Central senatorial seat, the election commission confirmed that the party was disqualified from running in the by-elections.

Now, political parties have mobilized their support for candidates since the beginning of the campaign period on Aug. 2. 

However, the election commission said the polls will not take place in the State Constituencies of Khana II in Rivers State and Talata Mafara South in Zamfara State due to ongoing states of emergency and pending legal proceedings.


Bolivia presidential election

Information compiled by Matthew Hipolito

JIMMY: Bolivia’s most consequential election in decades is slated for Sunday. 

That as the country, long a stronghold for left-wing politics in the mold of longtime president Evo Morales, is roiled by its worst economic downturn in decades.

The once-dominant left wing, made up mainly of the Movement Toward Socialism party, is now tearing itself apart. 

Incumbent Luis Arce, once the protégé of Evo Morales, has failed to gain confidence in his leadership and is not running for re-election. 

At the same time, he has pushed Morales out of the party, which has left a power vacuum at the head of the country’s most powerful political machine.

Morales attempted to engineer a comeback, but was barred from running by Arce-aligned judges, and is now urging his followers to cast null votes in protest. 

This leaves on the left-wing side only young pro-Morales Senate leader Andrónico Rodríguez and Eduardo del Castillo. The latter, a former government minister whom Arce tabbed as the party's new candidate. 

On the opposition side, former President Jorge Quiroga is battling businessman Samuel Doria Medina for status as the main right-wing candidate, while Rodrigo Paz and Manfred Reyes Villa are positioning themselves as centrists with Reyes focusing on law and order.

Now, a right-wing victory is possible for the first time in recent years and would certainly see drastic shifts in economic and foreign policy. It’s unknown, of course, if that would alleviate the persistent inflation, lines for basic services, and high gas prices at the heart of voter disillusionment. 

Doria Medina in particular has vowed to slash fuel subsidies, something that triggered nationwide protests in 2010 when Morales attempted it. 

Security-wise, the U.S. Embassy has already warned of the possibility of violent protests, and pro-Morales protests in June led to clashes that killed at least six people, including four police officers.


DR Congo, M23 rebels pledge to reach peace deal

Information compiled by Theresa Seiger

JIMMY: The Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Rwanda-backed M23 militant group are expected to sign a final peace deal on Sunday.

The deal comes after the two inked a declaration of principles last month aimed at ending decades-long hostilities in eastern Congo. 

The agreement came after officials from DR Congo and Rwanda signed that U.S.-brokered peace agreement in Washington “based on mutual respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity, national unity, and the peaceful settlement of disputes.” 

Rwanda has long denied backing M23. 

Still, a UN report recently found that Rwandan soldiers had aided M23 rebels in attacks that killed hundreds last month in the DR Congo’s North Kivu province.

A Rwandan official called that report “unacceptable” and “false.” 

Now, despite the expected peace deal, local media reports have indicated rebels and pro-government forces are still fighting. 

According to the UN’s refugee agency, thousands of people have been forced to flee, with 2.8 million internally displaced people counted last year in North Kivu alone. 

Finally, the executive secretary of M23 noted last month that the root causes of conflict between the group and the government will need to be addressed after the peace agreement is signed, saying state authority will be restored with M23 acting as “a major player.”


JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors David Wyllie, Agnese Boffano, Matthew Hipolito and Theresa Seiger. Our interview featured editor Joe Veyera and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com


This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

Copyright © 2025 Factal. All rights reserved.

Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe