Episode 16 - Burning Questions

In this episode of Hoogwegt Dairy Spew, we answer several Burning Questions from our listeners!

Chapters

• 0:48 Production Outlook
• 5:32 NZX Seminar and FI Thailand Round Up
• 7:47 Oceania & EU Price Gap
• 11:28 What's Happening in China
• 19:32 Hoogwegt Singapore's 10th Year Anniversary!
• 21:39 Let's Talk High Proteins
• 23:47 A Little Bit on Whey
• 25:39 Is the Upward Trend Sustainable?
• 30:34 BMP-SMP Spread
• 31:52 Upcoming Tradeshows: Anuga / FI Europe / Gulfood
• 32:41 Quick Word on Macros
• 34:11 Summary & Closing

Transcript

[00:00] Tom: Phones off.

[00:01] Val: No more. No more vibration mode. I've got one time we had this talking to. Okay. Morning, guys. Welcome to the latest episode of The Hoogwegt Dairy Spew. With me today, I have Tom.

[00:34] Tom: Hey, Val.

[00:35] Val: Charles Lesmana.

[00:37] Charles: Hey, Val.

[00:38] Val: Elvin.

[00:38] Alvin: Hey, Val.

[00:39] Val: Boh.

[00:40] Boh: Yo yo.

[00:41] Val: Yeah. Welcome, welcome. In this October edition of the Hogrick Dairies for you, we have some burning questions that we've been getting from a lot of our listeners. So I think we should dive straight in and discuss some of these questions. So, on the supply side, we do have this question. Can you talk about the New Zealand production and what's happening there since the new season is starting? Charles, maybe can you start us off with this question?

[01:09] Charles: Yeah, I think interesting, a lot of news has been coming out about New Zealand production in the last few weeks. Especially more talks during the SGX conference that we had somewhere two, three weeks ago, honestly speaking, not sitting in that continent. The takeaway I get out of this whole thing is that there will be quite a lot of variability in production this season. Obviously, the big news is El Nino. Now, it's 100% confirmed that this year we will have El Nino. But when I first heard about El Nino, the headline to me sounds like, oh, okay, that means that New Zealand production will be impacted adversely, meaning that there will be less milk out of New Zealand during the peak. But it seems that some people are also saying that El Nino may bring about warmer weather during the peak, which may not be that bad. Considering all things, I think the main thing to watch that's more impactful towards milk production is actually the pasture growth index to PGI. For a long time, the start of the season has been pretty good. Now it seems like that index is dropping a little bit. But also when talking about PGI, I've also heard the other side of things, that the data is a little bit skewed and that actually the impact may not be that bad to add. On top of that, also, when we speak to different suppliers in New Zealand, they mentioned that there is quite a difference between expected production in the North Island and the South Island. North island seems to be struggling a little bit, but we heard a comment that in South Island everything seems better than expected. So, all in all, I think it's at least from where I'm standing, it's quite difficult to come up with one conclusion whether it's going to be worse than expected or better than expected. But the season seems to be well underway, pretty well at the start.

[02:52] Tom: I think the only conclusion that you can draw is that expectation. Preseason was, let's say, a plus during the peak of 1.52%. That was the overall expectation of the Fresh Agendas and the Sonics, et cetera. South seems to be showing a plus, but the northern Ireland and especially the Waikato area region is showing a minus of between three and 5% for the months of August and September. Indeed, El Nino coming. El Nino is confirmed. I think from a short term perspective, it is positive. It should be having a positive impact because especially the Northern Ireland is too wet. So with that heat wave that is coming up, it should be having a short term positive impact. But of course, for the short of the season it should be having a negative impact. And I think the only conclusion you can draw so far is, once again, market was expecting an increase of between 1.52% during the peak of the season. Most probably those are not levels that will be reached.

[03:51] Val: Yeah, so for all you listeners out there, if you do follow us on our Horizons newsletter as well. We do have an interesting market direction piece on this. So basically we are also touting that supply growth fundamentally is on the verge of turning negative, not just considering Oceania, but also in the US and the EU. And then the next question that we have would be then what would New Zealand be Valorizing? What is going to make sense for them? Do we have any thoughts on this?

[04:22] Tom: Yeah, so far it's in line with previous years. So minimize the production of whole milk powder also makes sense because the biggest, largest buyer importer of whole milk powder, China, still is not active compared to the levels that they have been showing, let's say up to two years ago. Also, local domestic, Chinese whole milk powder production still is expected to be good. So I don't think that the increase, the recent increase of whole milk powder prices will be affecting or changing that. Valorization and I do believe that especially Fontera will be trying to produce as little whole milk powder as possible and maximize the skimmed fats cheese ingredients production.

[05:07] Charles: Yeah, I think that's what Fonterra said during the SGX conference as well. And as far as we know, processors have to plan quite a bit in advance and it's not that easy to switch, let's say, for November production, where most of the milk will be what they can produce. So I think the flexibility is more in the shoulder of the season. That's probably coming after January onwards.

[05:38] Val: So, speaking of the Anzadec seminar, elvin, who are participating in that seminar, tell us a little bit more about how it went.

[05:46] Alvin: I think the sentiments I get on the ground is that that was before GDT that day. A lot of people are clueless about the direction because at that point of time the market was still on a downtrend. There's a lot of discussion on where's the bottom or is this GDT going to be strong or weak. A lot of different sentiments if you ask different suppliers and different customers, all of them are saying different things. But of course, after the GDT after we see the strength of China coming back, sentiments totally changed the next day. So people are starting to get very bullish on Wednesday up to today. We can see this from the price trend in home and powder, skimming powder, everything. People start to get bullish.

[06:26] Val: Yeah, I think just in general, we notice every time there's an NZ seminar, it's kind of like a gathering of minds and a consolidation of thoughts. And usually most of the time we come out with a little bit more clarity as a whole in terms of the industry. So during the time of the NZ, we also had the Fi Thailand happening. So, Bo, you were there participating and helming and running the booth. Any thoughts on what you saw?

[06:55] Boh: Yeah, I think there's two school of thoughts over there. One is that buyers continue to see the market at least two, three weeks back to still be on a downward trend, or at least what they hope, and still staying on the sidelines, covering hand to mouth. On the other hand, there's another group of buyers who start to see some signals, especially from Europe side, where prices are starting to firm a bit earlier and then believing that this would also pull up the overall market, despite New Zealand still coming in at sharp offers. So what is the outcome is that they are looking to cover a bit further out than usual, starting to probably store. And that's something that was the two main discussion points with quite a number of customers.

[07:53] Val: Which we have been getting a lot from our customers and our listeners. Why is the price difference between Oceania and the EU or the US so big? Yeah, I think this has been exceptionally obvious in the recent one, two weeks. And yeah, customers are saying, like, okay, it doesn't make sense. The GDT is at this price, we are seeing EU prices at higher. What's the rationale behind that? Care to expound on this, Tom?

[08:22] Tom: Looking backwards, I think there never has been a discussion about the expected decrease in supply from especially Europe. Europe has been struggling weather wise also because of sustainability issues. We've been seeing milk production going down rapidly in especially France, for example. So there never has been a discussion about the poor supply coming from out of Europe. At the other end, New Zealand was pretty optimistic. Once again, the expectation during the peak was an increase of, let's say between 1.5 and 2%, leading towards a lot of additional skim milk powder and decent levels of whole milk powder, and then realizing that demand from the APEC region, especially China, is pretty weak, or at least not as much as compared to historical levels. Yeah, there was a discount coming from out of Oceania. If you look forward, and if you take a look at that forward curve, then the situation seems to be normalizing and EU, US and Oceania all seems to be quite on par with each other during Q One. And I think that's a result of a less enthusiastic forecast for New Zealand production. And yeah, do expect that during Q One that there won't be any discounts anymore coming from out of New Zealand.

[09:42] Charles: I think just a small piece on that Valorization switch that started last year because of expected lower homemade powder production and driven by, let's say, a weaker China market. Some interesting data as well that came out that we saw is that over the last few seasons the share of homework powder production within Fontera itself have dropped significantly. So I think Fonterra has switched in the past. I think anecdotally people always expect that oh, there's a maximum that Fonterra can switch in a given season from homework powder to Skimmel powder. But I think over the last few years they've really made some adjustments to their production capabilities to be able to switch more. So it's kind of a mainstay now that when homemade powder prices are in the dumpsters, so to speak, that there is a lot more excess chemical powder available that needs to go to various regions. But especially here in the APAC and China regions, we tend to see those offers a lot more. And of course that's also driven a bit by the fact that freight into this region obviously is not as high a difference as, let's say if you were to ship from New Zealand to Algeria, then you'd have a bigger freight difference with the other origins.

[10:55] Alvin: And to add on to that right to quantify things, because during the last GT seminar, fontera did mention that they produced 1.1 million of home of powder last year. This year they're aiming to produce 900,000. So the rest they use to produce scheme. And this SS scheme needs to go to somewhere. And looking at the global demand right now, demand, to be honest, is still not that great yet. So with such demand, right, fonterra needs to find a home for the powders and probably that's why they are reducing their price.

[11:34] Val: Yeah. So with that, I think that brings us to China once again, china being a very important market for New Zealand whole milk powder. We also get this question from some listeners. Is China suddenly awake again? What's happening? We've seen a lot of activities actually in terms of price movement and despite China being away on Golden Week so what's the story, Charles, coming up from China?

[11:59] Charles: Yeah, in China there's two different fundamental stories, so very different between homemade powder and skimp. First, with homemade powder, everybody knows that with the Chinese production being pretty strong this year, there is quite a bit of local homemade powder stocks that are available. What we see as well is that imported stocks of homemade powder is not high. So for a long time there was a theory that given the price difference, I think let's say a price difference of $1,000 a ton the theory of local processors was that many buyers would switch their recipes from using imported homeopower into using local homeopower. What we've seen in the past few months is that that change is not happening that quickly. There are certain recipes that I think are probably harder to change, and as a result, it's been drawing down a lot on the imported homework butter stock. Now, what happens when the local stocks in China are low? You are entering the Q Four seasonally higher demand period, and you have a tariff window that starts on 1st January. What results is that first distributors are incentivized to sell every ton of their stock that is still within this year by December. And the only time they will restock is then during the FDA window, while at the same time you still have this end user demand that is buying the raw material in preparation for the Chinese New Year or the Spring Festival, as they call it in China. So imported homemade powder market dynamics in China are pretty tight, which I think gives a bit of impetus for buyers who see that, oh, okay, I don't have that much stock anymore. As soon as I sell these products as a distributor, then let's bid up on GDT to restock. For Q One arrivals, we've seen that a lot. So I think it's giving a bit of support in the homeopower market. In skimp, the situation is slightly different. The stock situation in China at the moment, there are still quite a lot of imported skimp stocks. Also, the skimp market has been impacted severely by the deterioration of the infant demand. So China roughly imports around 350,000 tons of skimped. I think infant category is probably affecting roughly around 50 to 70,000 tons of debt demand. So China is still struggling to work through that stocks. But ultimately, I think if the sentiment in Holberg powder changes, the local buyers will see it kind of in tandem. Okay, I have still a bit of stock of skimped, but if I need to buy homework powder, I also want to make sure that I cover my skimped a little bit more where possible. We see also that buyers are able to get far better prices on GDT compared to futures, compared to European origin, compared to US origin. So if you are a buyer today buying homework powder because you want to restock, I think it makes also a perfect sense to buy C Four, C Five, which is ETD February March at $2,500 levels. Fob, if you look at the corresponding futures for those period, it's well above 2800 fast. So we'll see how that develops and how much homemade powder can affect that market. But the supply and demand dynamics in China at the moment have not improved that much on the skim milk powder side of things.

[15:21] Tom: And going back to whole milk powder, because I'm wondering a bit like most of the bigger Chinese buyers, they managed to approve domestically produced whole milk powder in at least part of the SKUs. What would be an incentive for them to switch back to imported whole milk powder? Because now the difference, of course, is $1,000. So it's super attractive, but they already managed to approve it. So would they switch back when that difference, that price gap is decreasing to let's $500 or $250?

[15:50] Charles: Very good question, in my opinion. First, I think we scope the market and roughly give some percentages on the segmentation. The big end users are responsible for roughly 50% of the market, while the other 50% of the market are more of the smaller distributed markets. So the big end users are the ones we know that also collect milk from the farms and are the ones sending it to Toll dryers to produce homemade powder. Or lately, also some skimmed and cream and maybe in the future some cheese. Over the last few years, mainly it's been homework powder. I think if you are a processor that collects milk from the farms and sends it to a toll dryer to dry homemade powder and you see your stocks growing, your incentive to change almost all your recipes to a local homemade powder is extremely high. And not just incentive, but you have internal pressure to be using up as much of those stocks as possible. We also know that those producers are also having a pretty big sales force that are very, very aggressively going to the other 50% of the market. That's the distributed market to say, hey, local homework powder is really good. I also use it in this yogurt, by the way. So your yogurt can be using local homework powder. But going forward, I think the biggest consumer of a local homework powder in China should be those end users that are collecting from the farms themselves. So if we look at the trend that in the next few years the self sustainancy rate will keep hovering between, I don't know, 65% to 75% levels, then I think most of the imported homo powder will actually be more for the other segment, the 50% distributed market segment. Don't think it's a matter of price discount unless it's very, very small. And yeah, it's a good question whether that's $500 or $200. Very hard to ascertain. But I think if the price difference between Chinese HomePower and imported is $200, then naturally you may be able to see a switch because I think it's still a given even within those players themselves, that there is a difference in the quality of product.

[17:57] Tom: Chinese milk currently is cheap, and normally under normal circumstances, chinese milk should be more expensive than New Zealand milk. So that should be a difference because currently it's not sustainable. Like farmers are either losing money or getting subsidized by the Chinese government. That's a bit of a question mark, of course, but these milk prices that they're currently paying in China are not sustainable.

[18:24] Charles: That's a really great point, but again, the economics will prevail, right? So if local homemade powder gets expensive, again, let's say more expensive than imported homemade powder, these end users will be all importing homemade powder. So the local price of Chinese homemade powder has to fall again. And that has, of course, a bigger implication on what the government wants versus how much they want to prop up the self sustainability rate. But in terms of, let's say, who can use which product, I think it's kind of a good thing that the usage of local homo powder is isolated within those big players that are actually collecting from the farms themselves, rather than, let's say, a bigger share of the distributed market using local home equator. Because in that instance, it will be way more difficult to get a picture of how Chinese demand is doing, because then all the data that we get from, let's say, imports, export data, GDT data, will just be driven by distributor buying sentiment that will make the market way more volatile. I think.

[19:31] Val: It guys. Yeah. Oh, my gosh, guys. Okay, for all your listeners out there and all are really hardcore, ardent fans, it's a 10th year anniversary of Hogrex, Singapore. Yeah, it's been ten years. And for those who remember us being located at the PSA Building yeah, it's been a ride. I think on this podcast, we probably have Les Mana being in Singapore office for the longest time. How long have you been here, Charles?

[20:07] Charles: Eight years. Well, I think the evidence is in this room. When I first joined, the only local commercial employee, and over the years, I think we've added so much to the team. Yeah. One by one, all of you joined the company. And also the highlight also has been adding colleagues in the other departments as well. I think when I first joined, it was more like we have a commercial team doing the sales, and obviously we have the commercial assistants that our buyers would already see in Cope before Junior and now Gina. But over the years, we also added Zilling to the QA team, TSS team, we added Qinyan to the finance team, and I think they've really, really added value to what we're doing here in the region. So that's the highlight for me. I think we're a growing team, more of a local presence, and that's what will keep me going as well.

[20:58] Val: Look how far we've come.

[21:00] Tom: We matured, guys. We matured. But if you take a look at how we started that ten years ago, it was a rep office, a combined rep office of the Maloney of Hogwack, US and Hoquwack International. And in line with the global strategy, we really became one team Hoquwacked. Even further than that, one team Hogwacked, plus one team Maloney, and making use of each other's strengths, we matured as an office. We now have approximately 16 1718 FTE on board, still growing, doing a lot of good stuff. A lot of fun stuff.

[21:30] Charles: Yeah.

[21:30] Tom: And let's celebrate that 10th anniversary.

[21:33] Val: Yeah. Here's to many more ten years to come, guys. Still on the topic of China, how are the high proteins doing bowl in this region?

[21:51] Boh: I think from a seasonal standpoint, where China is preparing for Q One, demand has been quite positive over the last couple of weeks. So that gives also better confidence in how we see next year. Of course, this week's Golden Week results from the retailers will provide us some insight into how it would be next Chinese New Year. But yeah, at least it doesn't seem so gloomy anymore. Overall. Within Asia. Same situation. High stocks at high prices. Over the last one year, prices have shot up two, two and a half times towards the peak, probably NQ three Q Four last year. And quite a number of people have covered further out than needed, again because of the fear that it would go higher. So what happened over the last one year where inflation, interest rates, all of this affected the consumer spending and then the end demand. So what it means is these high stocks have rolled over and at the same time there are still expensive products that are coming in. So demand hasn't been great over the last, let's say, a year or so. One year later. Current situation, we would see about 50% have depleted them and because they have been impacted quite badly, I'm now looking more from a hand to mouth approach, while let's say another 20 30% are looking to cover further out because they are convinced that prices are at very attractive levels, while another 20 30% still have high stocks. They are coming until next year. So that's the situation that we hear from the market.

[23:46] Val: Maybe I'll just chime in as well. I mean, the upward trend on the WPC prices, we do also see Whey prices as well as lactose and permeate prices come up. A quick back of the envelope calculation, I think US lactose prices have come up minimally. 100 USD you're talking about just from two weeks ago till now, permit prices as well. Sweetway powder has actually been pretty interesting. We do see prompt demand coming from Southeast Asia and these buyers are really acknowledging the fact that the availability of Q Four products isn't as good. So we do see prices move up. We're not seeing an increase in demand, we're just seeing people come in acknowledging that indeed prices have somewhat bottomed out. Also looking at prices of the derivatives like lactose and permits come up. And that's a strong indication for a lot of our buyers that if we need to cover something for Q Four, Q One, maybe now's the time, given the fact that the FX is also rather favorable for European products. Yeah, quite a bit of activity from the wayside.

[24:56] Charles: It's kind of in line with what we spoke about earlier. Right? Because for whey. There's not that much production in the Southern Hemisphere, so southern Hemisphere, Fontera and all the Ocean producers are going into season. There are production of D specialties, but it's kind of limited for the wider market. Sweet Whey powder that's still mainly sourced out of US and Europe. And based on what we hear lately, it's even getting worse in terms of supply. It's already not a discussion now it's even more of a given. And I think the next three, four months especially are low production seasons for Whey. So, yeah, I think at least on the supply side that things are pretty clear.

[25:44] Val: So I think then this is the million dollar question that we are moving towards and hopefully we can shed some light and our thoughts for listeners. Question being, is this upward trend in price something sustainable or is it really a knee jerk reaction? I think every one of us is getting this question from our buyers. So, Elvin, I think you've been really active in the market recently. What are your thoughts on this?

[26:12] Alvin: I think the upward trend now is mainly driven by the supply side in EU is really tight. So either the producers are offering at a very high price or they are not even offering at all. And looking at the demand, there are demand out there. It's just that it's not as strong as what we like. The demand is fortunately not as bad as what we are seeing for the past few months. So it's just a matter of balance. If the existing supply is able to cater to the demand, yeah, probably the price will maintain. But at least from what I see, I don't think the demand is strong enough. So probably price will fall back down a little. But what I can say for sure is the bottom is over. I don't think we'll see prices, say, three to four months back. How long it can sustain, I'm not sure, but it probably fall back a little bit before you go back up again.

[27:00] Val: It's quite interesting actually, because I had this discussion internally while we were doing the Horizons newsletter and we decided that we should kind of word it in a sense that prices that we saw in June and the really low levels May June this year was the glitch. It's not like now we are going back to something exceptionally high. Maybe if you switch the narrative a little bit and say like, that was the Glitch and this is kind of the norm, then I do think prices are pretty reasonable right now. And I think with that, that could also be very sustainable.

[27:33] Charles: Thing is, I think something we've heard a lot over the last few months is that with our end users, with the price of raw materials being really, really low, I mean, we're talking about Skimmel powder in the homemade powder was below 3000, well below the comment I heard. A lot was actually, our margins for processing into retail products are really, really good. So now it's just about the time when to buy at the bottom, right? Because we don't want to be the first mover. We don't want to be in some cases, they do try they do try to buy Q One, Q Two 2024 at spot prices. Obviously, that's very difficult. But in some instances, I think people were successful. And I think especially, I think maybe one and a half months back when there was maximum pressure with Oceania expected production, the El Nino news had not come out yet. I think there were a couple of big ones that were successful in securing big parcels. But with the margins being pretty healthy in the retail side of things, it kind of lends to that argument that actually prices are not that bad in that sense. I think the big news that I guess Tom will also speak a bit more about is the looming threat of recession. It's kind of been taking a backseat in the last two, three months. In the discussions. It was more of a feature, I think, when we were talking about China getting out of COVID six months ago. Yeah, the economic indicators have improved a lot. But now it seems like there are some new factors or data and coming from a more surprising angle that says that, hey, hang on, we're not completely out of the woods yet. So I think that's more of the impetus that may slow down the market in the coming six to seven months more than anything, because it's easy to say, okay, at 2500, my margins are good and demand should be better. But once prices of Skim, for example, go above $3,000, I think that's a big question mark whether the end user retail demand at those levels will still be healthy.

[29:34] Tom: Yeah, the price direction is not that difficult at the moment, I guess prices are moving up and prices has been moving up, and it's expected, of course, that prices will keep moving up. The question is more whether we will be reaching the levels that we see at the different derivatives markets. And if you take a look at SDX, for example, whole milk powder, there still is 300 $400 premium in the forward curve. And for me, that's more the question than the market direction, I do believe. Yes, compared to today, with tight supply and with Q One demand, which normally is better than Q Four demand for several reasons import, permits, quota, people would like to end up the year with low stock levels, et cetera, et cetera. So Q One demand should be an incentive, of course. So the price direction is not that difficult. I guess the difficulty and the discussion that we should be having is whether prices will be reaching futures levels, yes or no?

[30:34] Val: Talking about physical spreads versus futures q Four, q One. We are also noticing this rather interesting. Spread between BNP and SMP. And the question now is, with it being so wide, is it something that's sustainable as well? Is it here to stay? What are you guys seeing in the market and what are your thoughts on this?

[30:55] Tom: For me, the discount of BNP compared to skim milk powder is the perfect example that demand from especially Southeast Asia has been poor over the last couple of months. Overall global demand hasn't been poor, but demand from out of the APEC region has been poor. And buttermilk trade flows mainly are going to Southeast Asia to a less extent, Middle East and Europe. But Southeast Asia definitely is the big importer of buttermilk powder. There currently is, let's say, a discount of 400 $600 compared to skim milk powder. That shouldn't be sustainable. I think an efforts discount should be maximum 100 $150. There will be an incentive for users in Middle East, but also in Europe to switch part of their consumption towards buttermilk powder instead of skimmed. So logically that gap should be narrowing.

[31:56] Val: If you want to see us in the flash, team Hogreckt is actually participating in the Anuger trade show as well as the Fie in Frankfurt. And of course, Elvin, you'll be going for the Gulf Food in Dubai. So, yeah, maybe tell us a bit more about the Gulf Food booth.

[32:11] Alvin: I may probably have the booth number in a few days time or maybe even next week. So if you're interested, please reach out to me. Think you have my number. If not, you can get from your respective salesperson. See you there.

[32:23] Val: So, yeah, basically guys, if you're at Anuga, Fie or Gulf Food, just look out for the big blue Hogweck sign. You'll see very good looking people with very good market information look out for us. Yeah. Charles, you mentioned a little bit of macros and Tom, you're always the main guy when it comes to these comments. Any thoughts on the macros that might be affecting dairy market? What should we be looking out for?

[33:00] Tom: The macro is even more difficult than the dairy markets currently. No, but as what Charles mentioned, there is no recession yet and we mainly look, of course, on data from out of the US. I think job openings report of a couple of days ago was also pretty positive. Economy is very, very resilient, very strong, but there are signals that we are moving towards a recession. Yesterday there was an interesting report coming out from the EIA showing that the demand for gasoline for fuel has been the lowest since 25 years. And for me, that's a clear signal of a slowing down in economy because that's consumers who are consuming less fuel, less gasoline, less transport activities, transport movements. So for me, those are definitely things to watch. And I'm still convinced that there won't be a soft lending. I'm convinced that we will be going into a recession. That also will mean that interest rates will be coming down. And next year, with an election year, it will be extremely interesting what Biden will be doing.

[34:10] Val: There you have it, guys. We've answered maybe like 9/10 questions that were submitted by our listeners. To summarize, I think it's clear that I think the bottom is over. We are seeing prices creep up depending on the product itself. It can be pretty explosive. What is key would be best to talk to us if you have something to cover for Q Four, even into Q One. Let's work together to see what we can do. Yeah, and let's keep in touch. Good stuff, guys. So with that, we'll wrap up this latest episode of the Hoogwegt Dairy Spew. Hopefully we do another one before the end of the year and we'll discuss probably our crystal ball prediction of what 2024 would entail. Do a roundup for 2023. So yeah, thanks, guys. Thanks for making this podcast recording for all your listeners out there. Hope to see you in person soon in one of our trade shows. And if not, we're just a phone call away or WhatsApp away. So take care. Keep safe, everyone. Thanks, bye.