Music (00:00):

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Dr. Cathy Whitlock (00:05):

I have a friend who teaches middle school and he tells his students that the next five years of their lives will be the coldest years of their life, the rest of their life.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (00:20):

Wow. That's something else.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (00:24):

Hello and welcome back to the Voices of Greater Yellowstone podcast, where we share stories from folks who live and work in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. I'm your host, Kristin Kuhn, communications coordinator for the Greater Yellowstone Coalition, also known as GYC. GYC is a conservation nonprofit that works with all people to protect the lands, waters, and wildlife of the wonderful Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We've got a very important and compelling conversation for you today about climate change and what it means for this special place. We had the amazing opportunity to sit down with Dr. Cathy Whitlock: paleoclimatologist, Regents Professor Emerita at Montana State University, and lead coauthor on the Greater Yellowstone Climate Assessment. Dr. Whitlock has garnered national and international recognition for her scholarship and leadership on climate and environmental change. So if you want to learn anything about climate change and the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, she's your person in our conversation. We talk about how Dr. Whitlock got involved in the study of climate, what drew her to Yellowstone, and what the Greater Yellowstone Climate Assessment has to say about the changes our region is facing now and in the future. GYC is proud to have partnered in the creation of the Greater Yellowstone Climate Assessment, which was released in June 2021, as the first assessment of its kind to consider climate change impacts at the ecosystem scale. So come for the promise of cutting edge climate science with Dr. Whitlock and stay for talks of mud core samples, how Yellowstone's iconic wildlife are responding to change, and why we should take climate change...personally. Before we jump into it, a quick note that we use a handful of different terms to refer to the same area, Greater Yellowstone, the Greater Yellowstone Region and the Greater Yellowstone Area, all refer to the remarkable 20 million-plus acre, Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem with Yellowstone and Grand Teton national parks at its core. The ecosystem spans parts of Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming, and is full of mountain ranges, sage brush valleys, mighty rivers, and crucial wildlife habitat. All right, now for climate change with Dr. Cathy Whitlock, let's dive in.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (02:38):

Can you state your name and what it is you do? And tell us a little bit about that.

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (02:43):

I'm Cathy Whitlock and I'm a Regents Professor Emerita at Montana State Eniversity in Earth Sciences. So being Emerita means that I've, I've just retired from teaching, but I'm still doing research.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (02:59):

Wonderful. Thanks for that. So, Cathy, I've heard that you are a paleoecologist and I've also heard the word paleoclimatologist. Can you help us understand exactly what those two words mean?

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (03:11):

Yeah. Paleoecology is the study of present day ecosystems and trying to understand all the forces of nature that brought them to their present condition. So we use the past to understand the future, as well as the present paleoclimatetology is really just looking at past climate climate history. And so I study climate change as it happens, not just over years or decades, but as it's happened over centuries and millennia.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (03:46):

Okay, great. Yeah. I was going to ask you what span of time we're looking at, you know, if it was 50 years or 10,000 years, or kind of what's your scope here?

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (03:54):

Yeah, I, and most of my work, I go back a thousands of years to the end of the last ice age.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (04:01):

Oh, wow. And how, how long ago was the last

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (04:04):

Ice age? The last ice age ended about 15,000 years ago. And, uh, in the Yellowstone region was completely covered by ice before then. And so everything that you see in the ecosystem today had to have happened in the last 15,000 years since the ice has left.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (04:22):

Okay. Wow. So what was, what was Yellowstone like 15,000 years ago? I would imagine probably fewer tourists.

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (04:29):

Fewer tourists probably, but some, some really interesting animals and plants. Um, yeah, there was a large ice cap over Yellowstone and large valley glaciers flowed down all of the major river systems. Uh, the region outside of the glaciers was covered by tundra vegetation. And we know there were mammoths, um, uh, other large extinct animals.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (04:55):

Yeah. We have some wonderful large animals here still today. It's hard to imagine even more and bigger. Yeah, so, can you describe your journey for us a bit? So now you're at MSU and you focus on this region, but how did you find yourself studying long-term ecological change in the Greater Yellowstone Region?

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (05:15):

Well, I come from a scientific background, so I've always been interested in research. My dad was a researcher in the medical field, and I just always was excited by the lifestyle that we were able to live as, as I was a kid and wanted to keep that going for myself. Um, and I majored in geology as an undergrad. Uh, I was at Colorado College, uh, and, but I was interested in hiking and being outdoors and looking at nature. And so I discovered paleo ecology, uh, actually one summer when I worked for Stella Leopold, who is, Aldo Leopold's, um, youngest daughter, she was working at the US Geological Survey and she was a paleoecologist and, uh, she, she just got me so excited in, in that field. And also it was exciting to see what a woman scientist was like and how she operated.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (06:15):

Absolutely. So would you call her kind of your science hero? She's sort of the person you would say really inspired you to be where you are today?

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (06:24):

I've had a few people that I've really, that really have influenced my career and gotten me going and supported me, but definitely at the top of the list is Stella Leopold and she's still alive and active today. And she's still a person that I talk to and consult on various things.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (06:41):

That's really wonderful. So you have focused on Yellowstone or the Greater Yellowstone region, which of course is what we're here to talk about since that's what we're all about, but what are some other places that you have studied or conducted research in?

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (06:55):

Yellowstone's always been a kind of a touchstone for me. It's an ecosystem that I know really well. And, um, anybody that's in science, field-based science knows it takes a long time to really understand a place. And so I always come back to Yellowstone, but in the process of doing that, I've worked in other parts of the world that are kind of like Yellowstone. And so I've worked all over the Western US. Uh, I've worked in New Zealand, Tasmania parts of Europe, uh, and I've spent a lot of time working in, in Southern South America, looking at environmental gradients and climates and, um, conditions that have similarities to Yellowstone, but in some ways are quite different.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (07:38):

Okay. So what are, what are some of the questions that you're asking in your research?

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (07:44):

Uh, well, you know, I'm interested in how sensitive ecosystems are to past climate change. I'm interested in how people have influenced ecosystems through time, primarily through their use of fire. And I'm, I guess I'm interested in how the past is relevant to the future. You know, what is it that we can learn from the past that will help us understand the future and, and is the past really a good role model for the future anymore?

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (08:17):

And what, what does studying the past look like in your field? So when you're actually out, you know, in a landscape like Yellowstone or New Zealand or Tasmania, you know, what is it that you're actually doing in order to connect and ask those questions?

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (08:33):

Yeah, that's really, that's really, the basic question is what do I do? I study lakes, uh, natural lakes and lakes are great, uh, repositories of environmental information. So anything that's in the air that lands on the surface of the lake has the potential of settling through the water and getting buried in the mud. And over time, like lakes accumulate this sediment and these fossils. Uh, and so it's like a layer cake of time. So we go to these lakes and we get uh, cores of sediment, vertical tubes of sediment. And as you can imagine, the top layer of mud is the what's been deposited in the present day, but we can go back layer by layer, through time to the bottom layer of mud, uh, which was deposited when the lake first formed. So in Yellowstone, our lakes go back about 15, 16, thousand years ago. And these tubes of mud can be quite long. We can get 30 vertical meters of mud.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (09:40):

Oh, wow.

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (09:41):

And then we take these cores back to the laboratory and we split them open and we described the sediments and we take samples of mud layer by layer from top to bottom, we treat them with different chemicals. And then we look at what's in the mud under the microscope. So I'm, I'm still in some ways like a kid I'm still playing with mud. And the things that we're looking for in the mud in our group really specializes in are the pollen grains, because different plants produce different looking pollen. And when you know the pollen and then, you know, what plants were growing around the lake in the past, and when you know the plants, you know, the vegetation and then when you know the vegetation, you can reconstruct the climate.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (10:27):

Okay.

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (10:28):

So that's kind of the link. And so we play with mud, we get sediment cores, we bring them back to the lab and it takes about two years probably to Anil, fully analyze a sediment core from a lake.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (10:40):

Two years. Incredible. So I love that, that's such an evocative image layer cake of time. Uh, what are, what are some of the surprising things that you've discovered in mud core samples?

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (10:52):

Well, they're chockablock full of pollen. And so we get a really great record of vegetation change. You know, there's thousands and thousands of grains in a single, uh, cubic centimeter of mud. Um, we see volcanic ash layers from eruptions of volcanoes in the Cascades. So when, um, Mount Mazama erupted, which formed crater lake in Southwestern Oregon, that put ash all over the west and we get about an inch of ash in the lakes and Yellowstone from that eruption. And it's exciting for us because we know exactly the, the age of that ash, it erupted about 7,670 years ago. And so we know right away how old we are in the sediment core because we have that ash.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (11:47):

How incredible! It's like a bookmark.

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (11:49):

It is a bookmark, that's a good way to put it.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (11:51):

Very cool. So, um, you know, I love hearing the enthusiasm and your voice when you're talking about your work, what are some things that you love about Greater Yellowstone, the region?

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (12:05):

What I love about Greater Yellowstone is it's really such a large intact ecosystem. In fact, it's the last large intact ecosystem in temperate latitudes in the world. So it's a place to just understand how ecosystem processes operate. Certainly people have been on the landscape for thousands of years. Uh, and so we can look at that, but it's not been so, you know, so messed up by, uh, Euro American activity in the last few hundred years. So that's makes it exciting and in some ways really unique.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (12:41):

Absolutely. And so given that Yellowstone is so unique, what are some of the ways that the threat or impacts of climate change are different in a place like Yellowstone than they are say along the California coast?

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (12:57):

I'm not sure that's really the right question because climate climate change is really impacting all parts of the world. In some ways in similar, in similar ways. So California is getting more fires, but the Northern Rockies is also getting more fires. So, there's not something that's really, truly unique about Yellowstone. In fact, we can, we can understand, uh, ecosystems around the world by looking at places like Yellowstone that are still really functioning. There's two, there's two kinds of views of, of places like Yellowstone. Um, you know, some people see Yellowstone as kind of a museum, you know, a place where you can study what's happening, you know, naturally while other parts of the world are getting really screwed up. Um, so that's kind of the museum attitude. And then there's other people who feel like, you know, we should really observe and monitor Yellowstone as it's undergoing change because we can understand what's happening in, um, natural systems. And so monitoring and observing is really an important part of Yellowstone.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (14:14):

Right. So we're where are you in that spectrum? It sounds like you may hold both of those approaches.

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (14:20):

Yeah, I do think it's a little bit of both. I think it's a place to protect and it's also a place to observe.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (14:28):

Wonderful. Yeah. Thank you for that. So Cathy, over the past few years, you've been working on a comprehensive assessment of the past historical and projected future changes to things like temperature, precipitation, and water in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem through the Greater Yellowstone Climate Assessment. Um, how did this effort come about?

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (14:51):

Well, I, uh, led the effort to do the Montana Climate Assessment in which came out in 2017. And that was that's one of the first state assessments in the country looking at how climate change is going to impact Montana. Um, and that had a, that was done by a team of people and it takes a couple of years to produce an assessment. So it was a large effort from universities and agencies and tribal colleges and non-profits. Anyway, in the Montana Climate Assessment, we took a fairly coarse view of climate change. We looked at the seven, uh, climate divisions in Montana that are defined by NOAA and that's not terribly satisfying because it's, um, those boundaries have very sharp sort of political lines. They're not natural boundaries. And so I wanted to tackle Yellowstone. First of all, it's a place that I love and I've thought a lot about the climate history, but I also wanted to look at an ecosystem and there are no assessments of ecosystems that have been done so far. So this was really, um, new territory for me. It's also was a challenge for me because we're dealing with not just one state, but three states. Uh, and they're all, you know, there's a lot of climate, I guess, skepticism, maybe in all three states are politically conservative. And the other thing that was interesting to me was that it crosses your Greater Yellowstone, involves a bunch of jurisdictions. Um, so it's not defined by political boundaries and you go from federal land to state land, to private land in a way that, um, we could really look at how climate change is impacting different, different ownerships.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (16:44):

Yeah, very interesting. So it's, it's kind of fascinating to me that, uh, the Greater Yellowstone Climate Assessment is so unique in that it's an ecosystem based assessment as opposed to one drawn inside political boundaries. And so it's like of all the places to choose, to try to pull something like that off you're talking, like you said, three large politically conservative Western states and all these jurisdictions. That just sounds like an incredible logistic ordeal.

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (17:09):

Yeah. The first assessment really looks at water and climate. And so we're still in the natural system. And so that, you know, the, the, the, the work wasn't so hard to do that because we're not really getting into, um, what should be done with the assessment, but hopefully it's the framework for discussions across these jurisdictions and ownerships, and that's where the funds going to be. And that's where the challenge is going to be.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (17:34):

Certainly. So could you give us kind of a high level summary of the major findings of the assessment? You know, what are some of the ways Yellowstone has changed and is changing?

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (17:45):

Yeah, the one thing is that I'm a paleo person and I can see already that the climate that we're going into now hasn't happened since the last ice age. So it hasn't happened in the last 20,000 years. We're really seeing warmer temperatures than anything that I've seen in my pollen records, for example. And that's probably true of the last 800,000 years. So we're currently in a warmth in interglacial, a period between ice ages. And if you go back to previous interglacials, I doubt if there's been very many times that have been as warm as they are right now. Uh, and we also know globally that the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere haven't been this high for three and a half million years. So when I think about it that way, it really kind of puts me, takes me back because we really are moving into unprecedented times. And that was, that was, comes out in the assessment. Um, we spent a lot of time looking at what's happened since 1950. And because that's when a lot of us started our lives, I guess, older people and so we want to see how much climate change we've seen and Greater Yellowstones warmed, uh, on average about, uh, I think the report says 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit since 1950. Um, we now get a lot less snow at lower elevations. We've lost on average 24 inches of snow compared 1952 today there's 24 inches, less snow below 8,000 feet. Uh, and things like streamflow reaches its peak eight days earlier than it did in 1950. So we see that.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (19:41):

So that's all really interesting. It sounds like some major changes in precipitation in particular are in store for us.

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (19:47):

The interesting thing is temperatures have gotten warmer, uh, but we've had a slight increase in precipitation as well. So what's happening right now that makes us for example, different than the dust bowl is that there's a change in the seasonality of precipitation. So we, for example, have less snow in May and in June we have more snow and more rainfall. And what we can say for example is that there was less precipitate. There's less precipitation now in June and in May, uh, than there used to be where there's more precipitation in March, but because temperatures are warmer, some of it falls as rain instead of snow, the snow doesn't last as long, it melts sooner. And that's what, uh, causes, um, streams to have higher runoff earlier in the year. And, um, and then we go into summer being drier because there's less snowpack and snowpack is our reservoir, water.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (20:52):

So it sounds like we're dealing with some dryer dries and some wetter wets. Is that fair to say?

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (20:58):

That's exactly right.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (20:59):

Okay. So what does the assessment then have to say about future changes to our region?

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (21:05):

Those trends are going to continue, um, and we're certainly going to see warming to the middle of the century and that's going to happen almost no matter what we do as a planet to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Yellowstone, we're going to be something like five to six degrees, warmer Fahrenheit, uh, by the middle of the century, if we don't do anything to curb greenhouse gas emissions, by the end of the century, we could be really warm 10 to 11 degrees, Fahrenheit warmer, and now, um, hopefully we can, uh, flatten the temperature curve by, uh, reducing greenhouse gases. Another thing that we're going to see is that we're going to continue this trend where a greater proportion of winter precipitation is going to fall as rain instead of snow, it's going to melt sooner and we're going to see, um, less water going into summer,

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (22:08):

Right? So all that beautiful snow we have held in our mountains that continues to feed our streams all year long. It's going to just run through earlier and then we're going to be high and dry in the middle of the year it sounds like.

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (22:19):

Yeah, the shoulder seasons, you know, where we get snow are really going to be very unpredictable and it's, it's quite likely there'll be, uh, less snow, less precipitation. And the precipitation that we get will be rain.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (22:33):

Okay. I got to say, Kathy, when you're talking about the projected temperature increase, it makes me so anxious because this summer was really uncomfortable here in Bozeman, as it is. We had so many days over 90 degrees already that thinking about an increase of five or six or 11 degrees is just quite terrifying. I got to say,

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (22:56):

Yeah, and you know, every month gets warmer. So the coldest temperatures that we get are going to be warmer, right. But we're going to have a lot more days over 90 degrees. So the kind of weather that we saw this summer is just going to continue into the future. Um, by the end of the century, we could get one to two months of days over 90 degrees. It's a different world.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (23:22):

Yeah. Certainly sounds like it. Um, so that's, you know, I'm sitting here thinking about how uncomfortable that is going to be for just me as a person, but you know, this, this region is full of people, full of wildlife, full of the plant communities. You know, Yellowstone in particular is known for its iconic wildlife, like grizzly bears and bison and wolves, and these majestic herds of ungulates that we have. So what are animals like these going to have to do to adapt to a changing climate?

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (23:50):

Anytime we've seen the climate change in the past, the ecosystem has to adjust, right? And in the case of animals, they have three options. They can, they can adapt or they can move, or they're going to go extinct. And we've seen that in the past. And I think that's what we're seeing now. Actually I think animals are on the move because, uh, because of climate change, grizzly bears are on the move. Wolverines are having a tough time. Migratory birds come before their food sources may be available. Toads and frogs are, are getting threatened because wetlands are drying up. The ecosystems changing in animals have to, or will have to adapt, or they will become at least locally extinct.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (24:39):

That's hard to imagine. It's hard to imagine a Yellowstone without as many or fewer wildlife. You know, that's one of the big reasons that people come here, but you know, what about our human communities as well? What are some of the things that we're going to have to adapt to or accept about a changing climate?

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (24:58):

Well, um, you can look at different sectors. I mean, think about agriculture in some ways it's, it's good news because the, um, growing season is longer. It's already about two weeks longer and it's going to continue to be longer. The problem is there's going to be less water. And so when you go into the end of summer, it's going to be really hard for people that are require irrigation. It's going to be hard for livestock, and it's going to be hard on communities that need reliable supplies of water. So there's, there's that aspect to agriculture. Um, when you think about our recreational economies, they're already being hit by climate change. Uh, snow is going to be less reliable and, um, especially at the end of the season. And so that's going to impact our ski industry and other winter recreation. In the summertime our stream flows are going to be lower and the streams will continue to be warmer and that's going to affect, um, fishing and, um, especially for cold water fish. Um, so we're seeing the impact of that. On top of that, we're seeing more people coming to this region because well, frankly, where they live is probably worse. You know, it's probably hotter and less of a nice place to spend your vacation. And so people are coming here and record numbers are being seen, uh, visitors in the park. Uh, this year, we may have 5 million visitors or more, it's crazy. And it puts so much pressure on the resources, puts pressure on our waterways, puts pressure on the national park. Uh, and more people are moving here. It's been, um, projected, there was an article in mountain journal that suggested that by 2065, at our current rate of growth, Bozeman could be the size of Minneapolis.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (26:52):

Yeah. I saw that. That's a really striking to think about.

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (26:57):

Yeah. I can't imagine, you know, the Minneapolis skyline in Gallatin Valley.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (27:01):

Yeah, right up next to the Bridgers. So, is there anything else that you would like folks to know about the Greater Yellowstone Climate Assessment itself, or some of the ways in which the impacts of climate change are going to play out in our region specifically?

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (27:17):

One thing that was really interesting in great was a contribution, um, from the Greater Yellowstone Coalition, was that in the course of doing the assessment, we, uh, interviewed 44 stakeholders in the region. These were people from conservation community, from agencies, from tribal communities, people in farming and ranching. And we asked them what concerned them about climate change in the region. And the biggest issue for everyone was water. Um, is water going to be of the quantity, uh, that's needed for the future is going to be available at the times that we need it. Um, people are really concerned about that. And I think that's really a unifying theme that we, we have to sit down as, uh, citizens of this grand ecosystem and really think about.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (28:07):

Right, so, you know, in that, in that sitting down and thinking about these impacts, you know, what, what are the next steps for us? So maybe what are the next steps for the Climate Assessment? You know, how do you hope it's used in the future? And what do we really need to start taking action on now?

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (28:25):

Climate Assessments are, um, they're synthesies of scientific information. So what we try to do is take this enormous field of climate science and all the publications that come out and synthesize it into a document and write it in language that we hope that everyone can understand. And so we've started with climate and water, um, and we hope, we hope that it's, it's, it's a document that policymakers and decision makers and people in different communities, uh, can use the assessment needs to be updated because the science is always changing and improving. Um, and it also, we also need to look at at different topics than just water and climate, because water and climate are just the framework for the real issues that we have to deal with, like wildfires and drought and human health and the economy of this region. Um, and those are, and fish and wildlife. Those are topics I think that we need to look at in future assessments so that we can continue to provide the information that people need to make decisions. So there's that aspect because there's a lot of stuff that we still don't know about how Greater Yellowstone is going to be, um, affected by climate change. And then the other thing is we want to be sure that these reports are having an impact on people that people are using them in developing action plans. So in the report, we don't develop the action plans, but this is the framework of information for doing that. And the report looks at the six major watersheds of the ecosystem and provide some really detailed information about what's happening in each of those watersheds. So we hope that people can look at that and think about what's happening in their own backyard and what they can do, and that we can help facilitate that conversation. And in the process of having that conversation, we're going to understand gaps in knowledge that require more work. You know, it's a, it's a two-way street, um, working, working as part of a, um, in the assessment process, taking the science and converting it to knowledge, to action, but also using the action to inform the science. So that's the next thing. And then, I mean, ultimately we want to be sure that these assessments are useful and usable, that, that, that we're, we're making a difference and that we are providing the information that people need. So from the science end of it, we want to follow through and make sure that, that people are getting what they want, what they need, and we're, we're being useful and helpful.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (31:10):

So given that, you know, ideally the Climate Assessment is the framework and, you know, sets up the actions that we're going to be taking next. You know, who, who do you hope to kind of pass that baton to like, who is, uh, it might be kind of a big, crazy question, but like who's responsible for really taking action here?

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (31:30):

Uh, climate change is such a, such a big problem, and it's so easy to sort of pass it up the food chain, you know, to the higher level. And so of course we have to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and that's, that's something that has to be done at a global and national scale, but it's also things we can do locally to reduce our use of fossil fuels. And I think every decision that an individual makes needs to consider that, um, we need to make our houses more energy efficient. We need to reach out to the most vulnerable sections sectors of our population and make sure that that no one's left behind in Greater Yellowstone. The vulnerable populations are the old and the young people who live far from services. It's, there's some very low population, parts of the ecosystem, uh, people with chronic health issues and people who just can't get the kind of care they need, uh, in the, in the event of climate change. So there's that aspect. We have to help our communities prepare. We have to be ready for more fires. We have to be ready for more heat. We have to be ready for climate extremes, like floods and so on. Um, and that's, uh, those actions can be taken at a very local level and need to be taken at a very local level. Um, we need to prepare for climate change, which means we need to develop strategies so that will, you know, survive and, and, um, even prosper as the climate is changing.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (33:06):

Right. Right. So, you know, kind of given that we have all these really real and kind of scary impacts, you know, with us now and coming down the pipeline for us and things that are going to impact our community so severely, you know, what, what do you say to folks who, for whatever reason, can't seem to get on board with the idea that climate change even exists or should be taken seriously, or that it's, you know, that humans have played a role in it? You know, what do you, what do you say to folks like that?

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (33:36):

It's interesting, there've been some national surveys to figure out people's opinion about climate change. And when you look at Montana and you look at our region and you look at the nation, I think now about 72% of the population believes that global warming is happening. And that percentage has been getting higher and higher every time Yale University has been doing these, these surveys. So that's, that's really gratifying, but then they, Yale, asks another question in their opinion survey and that is, do you think climate change will affect you personally? And there, the percentages dropped to below 50%? I think in, in this region, it's about 45% of the people asked, think climate change will affect them personally. So we spent maybe, you know, maybe we spend too much time talking about the Arctic and polar bears and sea level rise, and we really should be focusing attention on what's happening in our backyard, which is smoke extreme heat, uh, climate events that we weren't expecting because we will be seriously impacted.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (34:50):

Right.

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (34:51):

So I think that's a message that people need to think about in thinking about climate change. There's also this, you know, there's this concern that I think we all have for our children and our grandchildren as to the kind of world that they're going to see. So I've realized just writing this assessment, that in my lifetime, I'm going to see nothing but warming because no matter what we do, we're going to be probably the world is going to be getting warmer to the middle of the century. Um, so anything we do won't change that trajectory, but what we do now, and I do mean now is going to affect the path for the last part of the century. And so that's the lives of our children and our grandchildren. And I worry about my own grandchildren. Will they even recognize Yellowstone when they start to explore it, it's going to be changing so fast. And, and what kind of Yellowstone or am I helping in leaving them?

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (35:56):

Right. Yeah. That's so difficult because you know, many of us have such deep relationships with that place. And it's hard to think about it changing such that our kids and grandkids may not recognize our Yellowstone, the one that we know so well.

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (36:13):

Yeah. So it's going to be a different place for them, for sure. And, you know, it's our responsibility to leave it in the best possible shape that we can.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (36:22):

Absolutely. So, you know, Cathy, a lot of what we've talked about and a lot of, I think, what makes climate change difficult for some folks to talk about, um, or just topics that are really hard and really scary and, you know, sometimes abstract and complicated, but also just scary. So is it difficult for you to be in this space, you know, all day, what do you do to stay hopeful?

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (36:51):

I stay healthful by going out and hiking in Yellowstone and places around here. You know, that's really just makes me realize that it's all all worthwhile. Um, you know, I, I do despair and people say, well, climate change is an existential crisis, but that always, to me sounds very remote, um, right. To me, it's a deeply personal crisis. I, I can see that things are changing. I can see the trajectory that we're on. And I think it's going to make a difference in all of our lives that we're on that trajectory. And the only way we can change the trajectory is to take action now. So that's, that's sort of my carrot and my, my stick, I guess, you know, um, I think there's stuff that we can do and there's a lot of good action that's going on and we just need to ramp it up.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (37:46):

Yeah. Yeah. What's more personal than the fact that we exist here now and hope that our children and grandchildren continue to do as well.

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (37:55):

Yeah, for sure.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (37:57):

Is there, is there a light at the end of the tunnel for you? I'm trying to think there's a better way to phrase that, but are you seeing actions happen that make you hopeful?

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (38:09):

I'm hopeful that it's now really part of the conversation. Uh, I'm hopeful that the, the media now, um, you know, even our local paper, almost every page has some article that's related to climate change. So this is not a hidden topic or, uh, a quiet agenda. I think people are realizing it. So I'm hopeful. I'm really hopeful about that. I'm hopeful about the initiatives that are, are being proposed at the national level, you know, exactly what we need, need to do more than those even. Um, so that makes me hopeful. And I'm, I'm also hopeful for the actions that have been proposed for Montana. There was a, uh, Montana Climate Solutions Plan that was written, uh, in the past year, during the previous governor's administration. It's a really good plan. It has a lot of good ideas. I'm hopeful that those sorts of documents are being developed and becoming more and more, um, hopefully used.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (39:12):

Yeah, absolutely. So it sounds like, so, you know, some things are in the works, you know, what, what does bold leadership on climate look like to you? What does, you know, fearlessly implementing those plans look like, like, what are we, what do we need from our leaders in the climate space?

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (39:29):

I think the global climate community is really clear on what we need. We need to reach a carbon neutrality by 2050, which means we store the amount of carbon that we're producing. You know, we need to reach net carbon zero, um, and there's plans that can do that. Um, and those that's really exciting, you know, if we can even think about doing that, that's, what's going to stop the temperature increases.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (39:56):

Okay. Yeah. That is exciting to think about, you know, we're such a innovative species. I think that, you know, we have the tools we just need the political will perhaps to put it into action.

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (40:10):

Yeah. It's interesting. I mean, climate change, we know the problem, we know what we can do to solve it, and it's going to be the legacy that we leave the next generation to solve it. But there's some really creative thinking that can come out of that and some new technologies and great solutions. So it's not a, it's it it's a problem that can be solved.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (40:33):

Yeah. That's, you know, it's actually, I think actually leads really well into, uh, another question I have for you. Um, I'm just curious, um, you know, when we're talking about the next generation, do you have any advice for young people who might be interested in getting into the climate sciences?

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (40:50):

Young people need to get involved. There's a lot of initiatives going on locally and they need even, probably in their schools, they need to get involved. They need to speak up, they need to use their voices. They need to demand action.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (41:06):

Yeah. And it seems like there are a lot of really incredible youth climate activists in our world now who are doing that. So, you know, that's heartening for sure.

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (41:17):

I have a, a middle school teacher, I have a friend who teaches middle school and he tells his students that the next five years of their lives will be the coldest years of their life, the rest, their life.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (41:35):

Wow. That's something else.

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (41:38):

That's a powerful statement. I'm not sure it's completely true, but it's true, you know, in spirit that we are getting warmer and, um, we're experiencing the coldest temperatures we probably will.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (41:53):

Oh my, is there anything else that you wish folks knew about, um, you know, perhaps what our future looks like or future actions that we could take on climate? So just sort of anything else in this space that you wish people would, you know, walk away from this podcast with?

Dr. Cathy Whitlock (42:12):

Well, Greater Yellowstone is an extraordinary ecosystem. It's unique in the world. Uh, we know a lot about it. We know that it's experienced climate changes in the past, but we also know the climate is changing today and it's going to continue to change in the future. And so if we want to protect this incredible place, uh, we need to, we need to get, take action, now.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (42:37):

Cathy, thank you so much for taking the time to sit down with us today.

Kristin Kuhn (Host) (42:44):

Well, that conversation certainly gave me a lot to think about. Climate change isn't always an easy topic to cover, but we are so grateful to Dr. Cathy Whitlock for sitting down with us to talk about the past, present, and future of climate for the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Cathy, once again, thank you so much for all you do! Now, if you'd like to check out the Greater Yellowstone Climate Assessment, you can find it at gyclimate.org or via the link in the show notes of this episode. Grab a coffee, tea, or a bevy of your choice and dig in. It's a wonderfully long and informative read. Here at the Greater Yellowstone Coalition we're focused on making the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem more resilient and adaptable to the impacts of climate change through partnerships and on the ground projects across the region. We're so glad the Greater Yellowstone Climate Assessment is there to serve as a tool as we all move forward together. If you're enjoying the Voices of Greater Yellowstone podcast, please subscribe to it on your podcast listening platform and rate or leave a review if your platform allows it. All the support helps us reach more listeners and allows us to continue telling the stories of this remarkable landscape. Thank you for tuning in and we'll see you next time.