Episode 52 - Why Understanding the Stages of Conflict Matters

In this episode  we offer a fresh perspective on the nature of conflict, and also seek to understand the typical stages through which any conflict goes through, with a view to identifying the points where it makes sense to intervene  and determine what kind of in intervention is the most useful at that given point.

Transcript

Sovaida: 0:08

Hello and welcome to Reimagining Our World, a podcast dedicated to envisioning a better world and to infusing hope that we can make the principled choices to build that world. Hello, and welcome to this episode of Reimagining Our World. I'm your host, Sovaida Ma'ani with the Center for Peace and Global Governance. Today we'd like to offer a fresh perspective on the nature of conflict, and also seek to understand the typical stages through which any conflict goes through, with a view to identifying the points where it makes sense to intervene and determine what kind of in intervention is the most useful at that given point. So let's first start with our perspective on conflict. It's really important to recognize that conflict is a normal part of life and arises because of misunderstandings between people, whether within the family at work, in business relationships or in friendships. Or whether it's in the realm of politics between nations and groups, be they ethnic, racial, national, religious, gender based. The problem is that many of us are uncomfortable with the idea of conflict, so we avoid dealing with it, which merely causes that conflict to fester and grow, and becomes so big that it eventually ruptures the relationships and the fabric of society. If we could learn instead to recognize the emergence of the first signs of conflict or misunderstanding as an opportunity to stretch our respective perspectives by putting ourselves in each other's shoes and seeing things from multiple points of view, we would thereby enhance our collective understanding. This would allow us, on the one hand, to grow as individuals by fostering the virtues of trust and empathy. And it would also help us to exercise the muscles of harmonizing differences and building unity, which would in turn lessen the chances of conflict spilling into violence and would go a long way to making this world a better place that is more peaceful and secure. Now, looking at the typical stages of conflict, it's easiest to understand it by using the metaphor of fire to understand what the stages of conflict are. And the reason why we're examining the stages of conflict is so that we can gauge where during the course of the conflict it's most useful to intervene, and what sort of intervention is the best at that given stage. And we'll particularly be talking about two kinds of intervention, mediation or the collective use of force. Now getting back to understanding conflict as fire. So conflict typically goes through various stages before it erupts into violence. The first stage is the parties to conflict gathering flammable materials and kindling, consisting of small grievances, perceptions of inequality or bias, of unfairness, microaggressions, a general feeling of discontent or minor disputes or concerns. It's important to note that at this stage conflict tends to be very quiet and unnoticeable. So let's take a concrete example to, to look at just for the sake of unpacking this. Looking at the example of Ukraine. Key early signs of this conflict include: in 2005, Russia is aggrieved by the ouster of the Russian leaning President of Ukraine, President Yanukovych, as a result of the Orange Revolution in Ukraine and his replacement with a different president, President Yushchenko, who promises to lead Ukraine out of the Kremlin's orbit towards NATO and the EU. Russia views this as a hostile act. So this is the grievance there. This grievance is exacerbated when in 2008, NATO promises that Ukraine will one day join the NATO alliance. Then in 2010, president Yanukovych, the old President wins a presidential election and returns to power. Then in 2013, his government suspended trade talks with the EU and opts to revive economic ties with Moscow, which makes Moscow happy, but then triggers months of rallies in Kyiv, which the aggrieved elements in Ukraine are fostering these protests. They viewed Yanukovych's rejection of an EU trade deal in favor of closer ties to Russia as anathema. And this in turn leads to the eruption of mass protests known as the Euromaidan protests November, 2013 to February 24. In response to these protests, the Ukrainian government votes to remove Yanukovych--so now for the second time-- after bloodshed in those protests. And again, Russia is aggrieved viewing this as a Western backed threat. Now in the mix, there are other grievances that Russia articulates over time. She claims that she wants to protect Russian citizens and Russian speakers who live in Ukraine from perceived persecution. She claims that she fears NATO expansion because it's a threat to Russia's security, and she has always viewed NATO's expansion eastward as a threat. And she views Ukraine as an integral part of Russia, both historically and culturally, and so wants to get Ukraine back in the fold. Then we get to stage two of a typical conflict. At this stage, an incendiary event occurs that activates the entire body, so the society's instinctive response, and sets off a larger confrontation. In the case of Ukraine, we could argue that the annexation of Crimea in 2014, immediately after President Yanukovych flees. Is one of those incendiary events. So Crimea was then quickly annexed and occupied by the little green men, these unmarked Russian troops. And the idea was that, they claimed that they had held a referendum. Citing protection of Russian speakers. Again, this was the justification that was given for annexing Crimea. The Donbass Uprising was another incendiary event, which followed the annexation of Crimea, which is where Russian backed separatists in Eastern Donbass region of Ukraine seize government buildings and declare the independence of places that we've come to recognize very well, the names of them, Donetsk and Luhansk, sparking the Donbas war. And then there are a whole host of other grievances. But you're starting to get the idea here. Then we get to the third stage of a typical conflict, and that is when the conflict goes from having been sparked through this incendiary event in stage two and now becomes, first of all, a bonfire that then turns into a raging wildfire. At this stage, the conflict consumes not only the original materials, the original grievances and kindling that was prepared, but it also starts to get out of control and draw in other places and people. Now the longer parties stay in this stage, the more entrenched in their positions they become, rendering them more assertive and immovable. So with respect to the war in Ukraine in the spring of 2021, we see Russia beginning to amass troops near Ukraine's borders in what it claims are training exercises. But satellite images taken by Maxar Technologies show ongoing buildup of Russian forces near Ukraine, with estimates soon surpassing a hundred thousand troops. And then in 2022, Russia launches a full scale war, which is the largest land war in Europe since the second World War. Now, one of the things that happens here is that the conflict is now raging and starts to draw in other countries, leads to the polarization of the world, into competing blocks. On the Ukrainian side, we see the United States and its allies and other countries like Japan, Australia, South Korea, offering unprecedented financial, military, and human humanitarian support to Ukraine. Meanwhile, on the Russian side, we see countries like China, Iran, and Korea, all assisting Russia in crucial ways. So we see China exporting drone parts, sending experts to help Russia develop her own drones, providing satellite intelligence and imagery, engaging in joint submarine exercises, and buying oil from Russia. Iran has been providing drones as well as technical blueprints to enable Moscow to establish her own domestic production lines of drones. It has also provided short range ballistic missiles and artillery shells and ammunition rounds, and expertise on bypassing international sanctions. There are also reports of Iranian troops in Crimea helping launch drone attacks against civilians. Then we have North Korea that has provided ballistic missiles, long range artillery and shells and ammunition, as well as thousands of troops. This has resulted in what one might call a proto World War as the New York Times referred to the Civil War that occurred in Syria in the 2010s. So it's a similar thing. These two camps in the world facing off against each other. It's worth noting that this block this balkanization is not limited to the prosecution of the war in Ukraine, but also represents different visions of a global order. Shifting from a hegemonic world order, unipolar world order to a multipolar order. And these are the competing visions of the world. Okay? Then we get to stage four. In stage four, the tensions are diffused, the flames of violence or doused, but the embers of the underlying conflict continue to burn and are just waiting for the next wind of circumstance to fan them and to flame again. While there are no longer visible effects of conflict, the underlying causes and perceived grievances remain simmering. Just like embers, this fire can reignite if fed, and if careful efforts are not made to reduce this possibility. When we look today at circumstances in Iran, the protests we see them flaring and reflaring over years, because the underlying economic grievances, human rights grievances, political grievances, cultural grievances have not been addressed. One can see this in all conflicts. One can see this in the conflict between Israel and Palestine, where grievances on both sides have remained unaddressed, including economic security and economic grievances and so on. Pick your conflict basically. So while there may no longer be an overt threat of violence, feelings of discontent continue to simmer below the surface. So this is why, going back to Ukraine, many believe that a ceasefire and a quick peace deal in and of itself will not bring a true and lasting piece to Ukraine. There's a fear that Russia will just take the opportunity to regroup and likely start another war in a few years, another war against Ukraine, or against one of the other European nations that it perceives to rightfully belong within its orbit. It's also a well-studied phenomenon that usually once a nation has had some sort of strife, it'll fall back into it within five years if the grievances remain unresolved, including ethnic, religious grievances, economic disparities, or a weak state and or large unintegrated armed groups. We saw this in Northern Ireland. We are seeing this in the Gaza War. We've seen this in Afghanistan. We see it in all of these conflicts. By contrast, what's interesting, the presence of a peacekeeping forces and international support generally significantly reduces the changes of a new flare up of conflict. That brings us to the fifth stage of conflict. Once the fire and the embers are fully quelled, it's time to allow for healing with a view to rebuilding trust that can serve as a critical and indispensable foundation for rebuilding healthy relationships and for healing the fabric of society so human beings can coexist peacefully. The world has been experimenting with different forms of healing, including truth and reconciliation commissions and restorative justice, as we saw in South Africa. And there's a whole area of study known as transitional justice. What's important to understand here is that the key is long-term accompaniment, with careful attention and focus given to efforts of healing and reconciliation. This work is painstaking work. It is not glamorous and it often goes unnoticed, but is deeply rewarding and effective. In fact, you see it being done usually at the grassroots of society by groups. For instance, in the United States, the group called Weave that seeks to weave the various fragmented segments of society together. You also have faith groups that are engaged in grassroots activity to help overcome prejudices, inculcate a sense and understanding of the oneness of humanity. Faith groups like the Baha'i Faith that have programs worldwide, programs involving the moral education of children, helping them to learn trust and empathy and compassion, and to help junior youth develop the muscles of service and learning how to build communities that are free of all the prejudices that tear us apart and who become essentially peace and unity builders. So there's a lot of good work going on. As I say, it's painstaking, it's unglamorous, and usually the media does not shine a limelight on these efforts, allowing them actually to take root at the grassroots level Now the stages at which intervention typically occurs are in the immediate aftermath of stage two, where the incendiary event occurs, or immediately after the bonfire becomes a wildfire. That's when we have societies generally learn to intervene in ways that are not necessarily very helpful, which is why we continue to have wars that don't get resolved and that continue to rage. So what would actually be helpful and what I would like to recommend here is that we should focus, do two things. First of all, think about intervening, starting with stage one. As soon as we start to see evidence of the kindling being amassed and so on it's time to intervene. At this stage, it might be helpful to actually use tools like mediation where you get the parties together, help them to listen to each other's points of view, and help them to find the areas of overlapping common interest upon which they can build trust and build solutions to their common challenges. This is a useful stage at which to intervene. If that doesn't work and we get to stages two and three, the kind of intervention that would be useful there would be to use a system of global collective security about which we have talked in this podcast. If you look at episode 26, which you can find on your favorite audio podcast platform like Apple Podcasts or Spotify, or if you go to the YouTube channel for CPGG and look for episode 26, it will unpack in detail what this proposed new global system of global security looks like. Another stage at which we typically do not intervene is stage five. So getting society to move from stage four, once the flames and embers have been quelled into proper healing and reconstruction and the creation of a society based on and founded in trust and empathy. At this stage also, mediation is a very useful tool. So intervene at stage one. And at the end of stage four, going to stage five with mediation, intervene at stages two and three in the aftermath of those stages with a new system of collective security. This is basically the proposal, and it's really important to learn to discern between when to employ these two key kinds of intervention: first of all, mediation or collective use of force using this new system of collective security. So I want to end with a call for us to imagine a world in which our children and youth are taught mediation and conflict resolution skills from an early age. I recently completed a training to become a certified mediator, which I thoroughly enjoyed, and that was what led me to wonder and imagine what our world would look like if we could all learn these skills, especially at a young age. Doing so would cause us to foster the virtues of trust and empathy from our earliest years, which in turn would lessen the chances of conflict, which in turn would go a long way to making this world a better place. We would train ourselves in the skills of active listening, the ability to put ourselves in the other's shoes, understand that there are many perspectives beyond our own, and learn how to harmonize differences. So this is my challenge to us all to consider what we can do in our local communities, maybe in our regional communities, national communities, to encourage and foster this idea of incorporating mediation skills and training for the young in schools, especially middle school and high school would be a perfect place to begin. And then maybe university courses could have this taught as a compulsory course. Our world would be a much better place. All right, I am going to end here. I want to end with this comment that you can now find all the past recordings of Reimagining Our World on your favorite podcast platform, and you can still watch or listen to them in video form on the CPGG YouTube channel to which you can subscribe for free. Please share the message and let your friends know. I would appreciate it. All right. I think that's it for today. Thank you so much for joining me, and I look forward to seeing you next time. That's all for this episode of Reimagining Our World. I'll see you back here next month. If you liked this episode, please help us to get the word out by rating us and subscribing to the program on your favorite podcast platform. This series is also available in video on the YouTube channel of the Center for Peace and Global Governance, CPGG.