Calculated Risk

Episode 24: Calculated RiskIn this episode of Philosophy of Life, Reza Sanjideh explores what it means to take a calculated risk — in war, in business, and in life. From Abraham Lincoln’s bold gamble during the Civil War to the rise of China as a global superpower, this episode examines how philosophy can guide critical decisions when the stakes are high. It’s a call for clarity, courage, and strategic thinking — especially for the next generation in Iran and across the Middle East.

Transcript

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Welcome to another episode of Philosophy of Life. I'm your host Reza Sanjide. In this podcast, we don't just talk about ideas, we explore how philosophy helps us survive, lead, and grow. Today's episode is called Calculated Risk. It's a continuation of my last episode, which was a bit unusual podcast, did follow my typical pattern. We stepped into the long shadow of war, its impact, and the duty we carry when history calls us to choose. I felt it was necessary to stay with that theme just a little longer, because open dialogue, especially in difficult times, matters. And this episode is about making decisions that shape not just survival, but Let's begin. So, here we are again, back on the battlefield. Not just of war, but of choices. The kind of choices that shape a life, or change the fate of a nation. In the last episode, we explored Iran, not just its politics, but its But it's people, it's pain, it's pride, and the unspoken duty we carry when our homeland is under threat. But today, we're shifting the focus. Because this isn't just about defending a country. It's about defending something deeper. The decision itself. The choice to act or to stay silent. To resist or to retreat. To move forward or to freeze. And how, without philosophy to guide you, You're not leading your life. You're just gambling with it. Let me ask you something. When war comes to your door, or when life does, what are you using to make your choices? Fear? Pride? A quick gut reaction? Or do you pause and calculate the risk? Philosophy is not a luxury. It's not an abstract game for old men in dusty libraries. It's a tool, maybe the most powerful one, Thank you. In 1862, the United States was bleeding. A nation divided North versus South. But the deeper war wasn't just between armies. It was between two systems, two philosophies. The South ran on slavery, an economy built on agriculture, cotton and forced labor, a feudal structure serving European industry. The North was shifting toward factories, steel, cities and capital. Lincoln wasn't just trying to preserve the Union. He wanted to redefine it. He waited for the right moment, for the right military victory. And then he issued the Emancipation Proclamation, a bold moral stand, but also a strategic one. It wasn't just about ending slavery. It was about dismantling the South's economy, cutting off its labor engine, and reshaping America's trajectory. At the same time, Lincoln was laying the foundation for an industrial future, moving from feudalism toward capitalism. It was a massive risk. Britain and France were watching. They needed southern cotton. They didn't support slavery, but they relied on cheap agriculture. If they had recognized the Confederacy, the war could have ended very differently. But Lincoln and the Union stood firm, gave their blood to a hat, they refused to take off. And in the end, they didn't just win a war, they changed the path of the world. In Iran, we've paid for every miscalculation, not just in theory, in blood, in exile, in generations growing up with the consequence of rushed decisions and short-sighted revolutions. I remember the chants, the hope, people shouting for a better tomorrow, but they were shouting with emotion, not calculation. And when the smoke cleared, many of us realized too late. We hadn't planned for the day after. We didn't ask who would take power. We didn't ask what systems would be rebuilt. That's the danger of fighting with passion and not philosophy, because you can win the battle and lose the future. Philosophy wouldn't have stopped the revolution, but it might have made it smarter, more strategic, more humane. This idea of calculated risk doesn't stop at revolutions or presidents. It shows up in your everyday life, in your business, in your relationships, in your health, in your career. Because life itself is a series of risks, some small, some massive, but all of them asking the same thing. Are you thinking this through or just reacting? Let's take business. Every time you start something new, You're walking into uncertainty. There's no guarantee. Statistically, most businesses fail within the first five years. But the difference between failure and success isn't always luck or money, as whether the risk was calculated or careless. Take Steve Jobs. When he returned to Apple in 1997, it was a sinking ship. Too many products. No focus. No soul. But Jobs didn't panic. He simplified. He refocused. And he bet everything on a bold, intuitive idea. That design matters. That experience matters. That simplicity wins. The iMac wasn't just a product. It was a philosophical reset. He didn't try to be everything to everyone. He chose clarity over chaos. And that decision rebuilt Apple. Now take Jeff Bezos. He walked away from a secure Wall Street career to sell books online, at a time when the internet was a joke to most people. But Bezos wasn't guessing. He was asking long-term questions. What do people always want? Lower prices, faster delivery, convenience. And from that, he built Amazon. Not by chasing quarterly profits, but by trusting a philosophy of patience, scale, and relentless customer focus. For years, they didn't even turn a profit. And yet, they built an empire. But even giants stumble when they ignore the map. Let's look at Samsung, a powerhouse in electronics, phones, TVs, chips, appliances, almost everything they. Touch turns to gold. So in the 1990s, they asked, why not build cars? They launched Samsung Motors with confidence they could disrupt the auto industry. But they were wrong. They underestimated the complexities, government regulation, consumer trust, safety standards, and overestimated the transferability of their expertise. Then came the Asian financial crisis. The result? Massive losses. Eventually, they sold the company to Renault Motor. And today, the name Samsung is barely attached to what's left. Now flip it. Hyundai, the car manufacturer, tried to do the opposite. They moved into LCD monitors and TVs, thinking their industrial scale could carry over. But electronics is a different animal. It's about design, user experience, innovation cycles, not just mass production. And so, Hyundai lost hundreds of millions of dollars and pulled out. What's the lesson here? Power isn't enough. Money isn't enough. Even talent isn't enough. If the decision isn't rooted in clear values, aligned strengths, and philosophical self-awareness, you're not innovating. You're guessing. And guessing is not a strategy. So now, let's talk about us, this generation, right now. Because everything we've discussed so far, war, politics, business, it all points to one truth. We are the ones holding the pen now. The next chapter of history is not being written in someone else's capital. Not in Washington. Not in London. It's being written in Tehran, in Baghdad, in Beirut, in Cairo. and in the minds and hands of people who are tired of being told what's possible. If you're from Iran, you already know the weight of this. We've had revolutions. We've had wars. We've been misled, broken, manipulated. But we've also survived. And now, we're at the edge of something new. This is not just a political moment. It's a philosophical one. Do we repeat the mistakes of the past? Or do we calibrate our courage? Do we chase chaos for the sake of emotion? Or do we act with purpose, with vision? This is our industrial revolution. And I mean that in every sense. We're not just capable of building tech companies. We already are. We're not just making films. We're making film that tell deeper, more human stories. Thank you. but leads on our own terms. Imagine an Iran that become the hub of ethical innovation, an Iran whose students lead global AI research, whose artists redefine the language of film, whose businesses operate with dignity and intelligence. It's possible, but only if we want it, only if we fight for it, not only with weapons, but with philosophy, strategy, and calculated risk. Let's end this journey by shifting our gaze to the East, because for decades we were taught to look West, to America, to Europe, to the so-called free world, for progress, for power, for permission. But history had other plans. While the world was still focused on the Cold War, on the Gulf War, on whether communism or capitalism would win, China quietly began rewriting the rules. Most of us thought China had reached its end after 1989, the Tiananmen Square protests, a cry for democracy that ended in silence, censorship. a brutal massacre the world condemned it the chinese government sealed the story and many assumed it was the end of china's credibility on the global stage but then came 1992 the u.s government along with pro-democracy voices tried to pressure china further to isolate it to topple it One of the responses was the Chinese Student Protection Act, passed by Congress to provide temporary protected status for Chinese nationals in America after the crackdown. The message was clear. The West would shelter the opposition and quietly hope for China to collapse. But China didn't collapse. They calculated. I was in China in 1993. I saw it with my own eyes. The first wave of tourism. the first cracks in the wall, not from revolution, but from strategy, not collapse, but controlled transformation. And what followed was nothing short of historic. Today, China is no longer just a factory for the West. It's a superpower in its own right, not just militarily, but intellectually, economically, technologically. Let's talk numbers. In 2023, China filed 1.68 million patent applications, nearly three times more than the United States, which filed around 598,000. China leads in AI patents, in generative AI, in green energy, quantum computing, semiconductors, and more. Yes, US patents are cited more often, but the volume, the velocity, and the direction all point one way. China is not coming. China is already here. And while we, in Iran and across the Middle East, waited for the West to save us, judged ourselves through their lens, and begged for a seat at their table, China built their own table. And here's the deeper truth. The East understands struggle. They've lived through occupation, through humiliation, through sanctions and betrayal. They don't just speak our pain. They've survived it. And they didn't wait for permission to rise. They just did. So maybe it's time we stop looking only west. Maybe it's time we study the philosophy of the East, not just their political strategy, but their patience, their long-game thinking, their ability to turn hardship into infrastructure. That's calculated risk at a national scale. We don't need pity. We need partners. And if we're honest, we might find more solidarity in the East than we ever will in the West. So where does all this leave us? We've talked about war, about leadership, about failure, business, Betrayal, transformation. We've talked about Abraham Lincoln, Jeff Bezos, Steve Jobs, and yes, even China. But what connects it all is this, calculated risk. Because in life, whether you're leading a nation or trying to build a better version of yourself, you will face uncertainty. And the real danger is not risk itself. It's unexamined risk. It's acting without clarity. Reacting instead of thinking. leaping instead of learning. And when we miscalculate, the cost is trauma. That's the pain many of us carry now, in our homes, in our memory, in our bodies, and in our silence. Trauma isn't just what happened to us, that's what we never got the tools to understand. And that's why the next episode will dive deeper into this subject, into the scars we carry, the choices we regret, and how philosophy can help us hold that pain without being defined by it. But before we go, let me speak to those of you in Iran and to anyone in the Middle East who still believes a better world is possible. This is your moment, not just to heal, not just to survive, but to build. We are not the generation of excuses. We are the generation of choice. We have talent. We have culture. We have stories that the world needs to hear, and we have the chance to lead, not by mimicking the West, but by learning from the East, by choosing vision over reaction, philosophy over propaganda, and courage over comfort. The future isn't guaranteed, but it is possible. If you calculate your risk, if you lead with principle, if you believe in something bigger than fear, then history doesn't have to repeat. It can evolve. Because the future, my friend, is not a lottery. It's a philosophy. And it's in your hands. This is Philosophy of Life. I'm Reza Sanjideh. And this was Calculated Risk. And before I go, these episodes are made for you because you matter to me. Please don't be shy. Send me your thoughts, your feedback, your critiques. I would truly love to hear them.