2026 Western States 100 Women's Field Preview | Analysis, Storylines, Predictions

Finn Melanson, Brett Hornig, and Leah Yingling provide in-depth analysis, commentary, and predictions for the competition in this year’s women's field at the Western States 100. 

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Transcript

SPEAKER_04 0:00

Norda is the official footwear partner of our 2026 Western States 100 coverage. All the rage this summer is the imminent release of their new model, the 055, the shoe that Rachel Enterkin wore start to finish en route to her course record victory at the Cocodona 250 earlier this year. Go check it out at NordaRun.com and make sure you are subscribed to their mailing list to get exclusive early access to the shoe. I've put a bunch of training miles in it. It's the real deal. We're back for another episode at our Olympic Valley studio here, a few days ahead of the 2026 Western States 100. This is our women's field preview. I'm joined by Leah Yangling and Brett Hornig. A little bit of housekeeping before we get started here. You'll notice on the table here, if you're watching on YouTube, you'll notice we've got a pair of the Nordit 055. They finally came in this afternoon. Added them to the studio. Great shoe. And then also, I mean, this is major kudos to Brett Hornig. We have a wine sponsor. Heck yeah, we do.

SPEAKER_02 0:58

Give them the deep.

SPEAKER_01 1:00

Yeah, about time.

SPEAKER_02 1:01

I know. Well, I I brought up a bunch of wine last year and everybody ignored me. So it was just me out there holding it down, and I was like, come on, guys.

SPEAKER_01 1:11

I had a good excuse.

SPEAKER_02 1:12

Yeah, that's true. It's a everything everything's pretty different this year. Yeah, Leah, you were growing a baby. Finn, I don't know what your excuse was. Maybe like just imaginary stress or something. But anyways, we kind of like threw the bat signal out there on the first power rankings episode, and we got talking with Lone Madrone Winery over out of out of San Luis Obispo. And they were like, we would love to hook you guys up with a little bit of wine for your you know preview episodes, whatever it is that you need. And we're sipping on a nice uh rose right now, and it's fantastic. So check out Lone Madron Winery.

SPEAKER_04 1:50

Lone Madrone. Cheers. And uh yeah, if if you need to uh hydrate at the same time, you can uh we can get our bottles of precision tool and hydration out too.

SPEAKER_02 1:59

So yeah, just don't mix them together.

SPEAKER_04 2:01

Don't mix them together. All right, this is an episode that I have been looking forward to for the past few days. Let's start with biggest storylines in this field. If you think of any headlines out there, Leah, for this year's event or just like stories that have been building since the Golden Ticket series concluded, what comes to mind for you?

SPEAKER_01 2:22

The first one that comes to mind is up until about a couple months ago here, we had all top ten returning uh women returning this year, which was awesome. I don't think we've really ever had that in the history of the race, at least in recent years. And unfortunately, Eden Nielsen, who was in the top 10 last year, has pulled out with an injury. Um, but we have nine returners, which I think is huge. And that means we've got like hugely competitive people, our returning champ. We haven't had a back-to-back uh returning champ at Western States on the women's side in quite some time. So I think uh it's gonna be an exciting one.

SPEAKER_02 3:00

Yeah, it'll be well, last year was a like pretty historically not hot year, but definitely not cool year. We're definitely approaching the time of we gotta start talking about the weather a little bit and how that does change the dynamic. And it'll be interesting to see how the returners from last year do in the same course, but what will probably be a very different day, which would make even like that returning champ storyline all that much uh more interesting to follow.

SPEAKER_01 3:35

Yeah. And we this is just another storyline, but there's a couple people who are very interesting, not only debut 100 mile runners, but debuts here at Western States. Uh not a ton of them, but the two that come to mind are Jen Lichter and Molly Seidel, and you know, they're they're something.

SPEAKER_04 3:53

Do you think it's purely coincidence that the champion seat has been so dynamic since Ellie Greenwood? Is it like purely luck or is there something to explain away there?

SPEAKER_02 4:04

Trying to think, how many I'd have to go back and look, but how many of the winners came back to try and defend their title?

SPEAKER_01 4:13

Yeah, that's a great question because uh what comes to mind for me is I think a lot of people get pretty satisfied after they nail Western states and they know what the training block took to get there and to line up and to execute and win. And I have a feeling that there could be several women who are like, I don't really want to put myself through that again. And there's other fish to fry in the sport and other races that are a little bit more desirable for me and training blocks that are more desirable for me. Yep.

SPEAKER_04 4:41

Yep. I'm thinking recent years Ruth didn't come back. Courtney didn't come back after 23. Beth didn't come back, Beth didn't come back.

SPEAKER_02 4:49

Katie Katie ran back to back years, but with a second and then a first, and then didn't come back.

SPEAKER_04 4:53

I think the last one I can think of is uh Courtney came back in 19 but got injured on Cal Street, and that was when Claire overtook for the win. Yep, right? Yep.

SPEAKER_02 5:02

That was potentially the last title defense year.

SPEAKER_04 5:07

Yeah. So really interesting. I mean, for me You guys checked off all of mine except for and I think this is be this is becoming a more reasonable storyline. The quest for sub-1520. I think through how with how radical the weather forecast is looking, I think anything is on the table.

SPEAKER_02 5:26

Sub-1520. Is that just you saying course record? Course record. Okay.

SPEAKER_01 5:31

I was like, I was like, you're really throwing out a random number right now.

SPEAKER_02 5:35

That really rolls off the tongue.

SPEAKER_03 5:37

I think it's 1528.

SPEAKER_02 5:38

I can I can check that.

SPEAKER_01 5:40

So yeah, I mean the weather this weekend twenty-nine-33.

SPEAKER_02 5:44

1529-33.

SPEAKER_01 5:45

And that was set in what year?

SPEAKER_02 5:46

2023.

SPEAKER_01 5:48

And conditions that year, um, we'll talk about them a little bit here in a little bit, but conditions in 2023 when the course record was set by Courtney DeWalter was quite snowy in the first 50k, but quite nice and great temperatures later on in the race.

SPEAKER_02 6:04

Yeah, you sent you sent me a great weather graphic.

SPEAKER_01 6:06

Yes, I found a weather graphic today on Twitter um that I I sent our crew here. And um, yeah, it's looking quite nice across the race course, Brett. You've kind of got it up on your screen here.

SPEAKER_02 6:19

Yeah, like 2026 forecast, 2023 weather. They're almost identical across the board. It's just much better conditions in the high country this year. So on paper, it should be even faster than the 2023 year. And the forecasted temperatures are even cooler than the 2019 year. That was extremely fast as well.

SPEAKER_01 6:46

Yeah, and I think something about that 2023 year that's interesting is you know, we can project and predict how that race was run and won, but like perhaps the snow slowed people down enough that they were able to really go quite fast in the second half of the race. But also, I don't know, I think people have improved a lot with how they're racing since 2023.

SPEAKER_02 7:06

So it is kind of amazing how 2023 was not that long ago. But it's almost like a the approach to this race. There's a lot of different stuff in the uh buildup and the approach to this race, and even the race day tactics than just 2023.

SPEAKER_04 7:25

What are those trends? What are those changes in strategy?

SPEAKER_02 7:29

I mean, we've talked about this, it seems like, yeah, maybe since 2023, but there's not really there's not a lot of hunting going on anymore if you're like trying to podium. There's no running down people by, you know, multiple minutes after the river got to be in it to win it. Um doesn't seem like there's too much as uh there's no such thing as going out too hard.

SPEAKER_01 7:53

No. And I think from a training philosophy side of things, we are seeing a lot more like just professionalized training in general. I think probably back in 2023, we saw a lot of the athletes being coached largely under like the swap umbrella. And I think we've seen a lot of athletes shift under CTS and other coaches in in recent years. And as a result of that, we're seeing much higher volume than we saw across like a lot of these top 10 contenders back in 2023, which I think is interesting. We're also seeing people just do a lot more like brand specific and maybe like friend group specific training camps, coach-specific training camps out on the course. And uh I I think we've chat chatted about it amongst ourselves, but like less people showing up at like Western States training camp than like less elite athletes. Oh, yeah.

SPEAKER_03 8:42

I know.

SPEAKER_01 8:43

Yeah, it's a bummer, but yeah, I think there's only maybe a handful, like Marianne Hogan, Holly Ranson, um, and a couple other of the elite women field that actually were at the Western States training camp this past year, which I think speaks to just the focus the athletes are having. Like they're very much going to do their own training camps on the course um in a way that works for them and not necessarily like what that fits in with the training camp schedule itself.

SPEAKER_04 9:07

I think I remember us being because it at the time it felt like somewhat of an outlier, especially because her training was public, but like Katie Scheid's volume like two, three years ago, that seems more normalized now. Totally. And then I don't know if this is normalized, but like looking at Abby Hall's training and the number of six to seven hour runs in the last three months. So many. What's it at, Dina? I think it was like eight or so. Yeah. Is that an anomaly? Or do you is that?

SPEAKER_02 9:33

Well, that was what Katie was doing, and that she was by far, at least from what we could see, she was by far training more than everyone else. And I think Abby probably still takes the the ultimate volume straw award, but not by that much.

SPEAKER_01 9:48

Not by that much. Yeah, I think there's a lot of heavy volume women in this, uh in the field this year, and Abby Hall is one of them. Fujiao does very similar training to Abby, almost like, you know, copy paste. It's quite similar in terms of hours. I think Fujiao actually might have taken the cake there from an hour's perspective on a week, getting upwards of like 25 plus hours for one of her peak training weeks. Marianne Hogan does a lot of volume as well, but sometimes she does have like a 50-mile, 80k bike ride in there as well to kind of take some of the pressure off of her legs on a big training week. But Marianne is historically in that like 20-plus hour uh training range as well.

SPEAKER_04 10:25

This one's for you, Leah. Um, because actually you've lived this. Like I've looked, I've I've thought about all of your top tens here over the years, and you've had to improve time just to keep place, basically. To get worse sometimes. Or to get worse sometimes. And if you think about this year's, like the cumulative women's top 10, where do you think there is time to make up on this course for the cumulative top 10 to improve again?

SPEAKER_01 10:50

Oh, I think I think up in like Robinson Flat, I think people can run that section quite a bit faster. And then we're seeing athletes and female athletes just go out faster and hang on longer. So I think we'll see a lot more risks being taken this year because the conditions are going to be conducive to risks being taken. And I know in the coolest year that I ran in recent years, you can make up a lot of time in those aid stations between the crude ones, uh, if you're not having to really like take care of yourself as much as you do on a hot year. So I think up until Robinson Flat, there's a lot of time. But honestly, like all those aid stations between Robinson Flat and then Michigan Bluff, where you don't have crew, for example, um, they can be quite fast if you're not having to do a full uh cooling protocol.

SPEAKER_04 11:37

Where were the improvements for you actually? Do you do you recall where on the course you made the most time up?

SPEAKER_01 11:41

I think those exact sections. Um and one of the benefits was one of the years we weren't able to have a crew, a crew B. So that facilitated having to be like quicker at times and spending less time at aid stations. But I definitely see, yeah, the people being quite a bit faster in aid station transitions this year, too. I mean, when you see media come out of Western states in the last couple of years, you see like 10 crew members on a singular person. It's like a bunch of ants on someone. And it's crazy. On a piece of cake. Yes. Exactly. And every there's it's a swarm. And uh these aid station transitions are getting wildly fast.

SPEAKER_02 12:17

So there's there's 20 aid stations, right? I think on the Western States course. And so it's like we see uh in like stoppage time for some of these people who are winning there's they're you know, they're perfect. What did Caleb have when he won like 10 minutes, eight minutes of something? So you're looking 30 seconds or less per aid station because I've is there ever a situation where you can skip aid stations here?

SPEAKER_01 12:44

Like they're all really close together, but I think the one after Robinson Flat. You could skip it's like three miles after Robinson Flat and you're really cooled down already, and you can just roll through that one if you if you don't need to be cooled down.

SPEAKER_02 12:54

Yeah, I was wondering what the weather threshold could be where you could get away with skipping some aid stations just to save 30 seconds a minute. Because if you do in a hot year uh that seems unwise. Yeah. And you would want to stop at every single one. But it's like well when there's 20 and it makes sense to stop at all twenty, you know, if you spend if you average a minute at each, that's pretty good. But that's still twenty minutes of stoppage time.

SPEAKER_01 13:19

Yeah. Which is that's significant.

SPEAKER_02 13:22

Maybe I I mean, yeah, it seems super risky, but like, could you skip one of the cow streets if it's not too hot?

SPEAKER_01 13:28

Probably if it's not too hot.

SPEAKER_02 13:30

Potentially.

unknown 13:31

That's a good trick.

SPEAKER_02 13:32

Like, could you go from Green Gate to Quarry Road and skip ALT?

SPEAKER_01 13:37

You know, that actually you bring up Greengate, Green Gate to the finish is a section that I we've been seeing people do that faster and faster and faster in the last couple years. So I think that's another section that can go significantly faster than it has.

SPEAKER_04 13:51

One other trend question for me, and I don't know if we can actually put numbers to this, but does it at least feel like the pros are more straba dark, the women?

SPEAKER_01 14:00

Yes, and it's sad. It feels that way. I don't know if it's actually true. I yeah, I'd have to crunch some numbers, but I mean, we have the few that are not straba dark. So that includes Abby Hall, Fuzhou, Marianne. Um that's like a few of the bigger names there. I think Ingvilde is actually public. But Lottie Brinks is Strava Dark, Hannah Allgood.

SPEAKER_02 14:23

Molly's idol seemed to put up Yeah, Molly puts up a lot. A lot. I don't know if it's everything. If that if that is everything, that's a it was a pretty good amount.

SPEAKER_01 14:31

You know what was an interesting finding I had was I was looking back at Abby Hall's build for Western States last year on Strava to see how similar it was to what she's doing this year. And her 2025 build is Strava Dark.

SPEAKER_02 14:46

Oh. That's interesting because it wasn't at the time. I wonder what the thought. What what's going on what's going on there? Can you rationalize that?

SPEAKER_01 14:58

Um You know, it's interesting because she's doing pretty much very similar training, but maybe add an hour or two of volume a week to what she did last year. So perhaps it's like a yeah, doesn't want to give away all the trade secrets, but honestly, I think the trade secrets are right there on her page this year too, probably.

SPEAKER_04 15:14

I'm also seeing the trend of we can call it like partial darkness, where like I'm looking at Caitlin Fielder's profile, and through April it seemed like a lot of it was there and then just completely off the grid.

SPEAKER_02 15:26

Um Lottie Brinks did that too. But she actually did like a nice little farewell post.

SPEAKER_01 15:32

Yes, she did a farewell post and she even wrote on Instagram, like, Yes, it's time to go Strava Dark. And I was like, No.

SPEAKER_02 15:38

Like you're giving us less to talk about. Fortunately, she was here in the studio the other day, and yeah, we gave a little more insight.

SPEAKER_04 15:44

We could go to Sunto, which doesn't filter this stuff out, but then I did actually do the homework there and I had to request the follow. Did she accept you? Yeah, um, I haven't even checked, but I'm assuming now.

SPEAKER_03 15:54

We tried.

SPEAKER_04 15:57

Uh okay, so what, three three days in change out? What is the official weather forecast right now? What are we looking at? Chief meteorologist Brad Hornig.

SPEAKER_02 16:08

So here's my my my system. This is what I do. I I Google weather in Auburn and I Google the weather in Forest Hill, and I open up five different tabs for just the top five weather websites, and I just kind of average the numbers altogether. And the high in Auburn for Saturday as of Tuesday, June 23rd, was between 74 and 78 degrees. And then Forest Hill was all between like 67 and 70 degrees, which that's one of the bigger differences. Usually Forest Hill is only a couple degrees different than Auburn. So I don't know if we'll see that again, but even if the high in Forest Hill is 75 and it's 80 in Auburn, that and then historically what you do is you add 10 to 15 degrees for the canyons. And in a year, you can run the canyons and they're under 100 degrees. That's that's when things line up to be pretty fast. We're also looking at a very cold start this year. I mean, right now it says at the village on Saturday is a low of 34 degrees, and you usually hit that right after the sun comes up, and that's what 20 minutes, or not the sun comes up, when it starts to get light out, that first hour of light, that's 20 minutes into the race, except you're going up 2,500 more feet. So it's probably going to be below freezing up on the escarpment and then over the other side because you stay in the shade when you go over the escarpment for the next like hour, hour and a half, maybe.

SPEAKER_01 17:46

Yeah, I think you usually start to feel warm around about an hour and a half to two hours in.

SPEAKER_02 17:51

Yeah, so it's actually gonna be kind of chilly at the start.

SPEAKER_04 17:54

Okay. I'll add this caveat in because I think actually you relayed this to me. This is sort of like the Jim Walmsley way to think about the forecast for this race. He would say that it the days in the lead up matter and that the canyons get sort of preheated, and it really matters what the temp is gonna be in those first 50 miles.

SPEAKER_02 18:13

Yeah, so we've we've actually had pretty warm weather here in Palisades up through today, but after today it's gonna start cooling off. So we might not get as much preheating as as normal. So like even the high down in Auburn today isn't terribly high, but I mean we were all out on the deck yesterday morning and it was warm. So like I think the overall temperature across the course, even just yesterday, would have been pretty uncomfortable. But because we're gonna see some cooling over the next few days with some slightly lower temps, I think that's gonna bode well for those who uh don't want a classic Western states hot year, which it's kind of funny how I mean, yeah, maybe we should dive into this with like the the the last year of this course, quote unquote, and how people are like it would be really cool to run it really fast. And because there's uh was it the Grand Achief Wilderness Reroute project, and rumor has it it's gonna be a little bit faster than right now, and also it's just gonna be different. So it's like this is the last year to really lay down your final historic time on the old course, and now we get to reset the record books for for next year.

SPEAKER_01 19:33

That's gonna be tough for our pre-raised previews.

SPEAKER_02 19:36

I know we're gonna have to go and like maybe we should run the course after that. We're gonna have to go run it after it's done a whole bunch of times and and see what the differences are. Um so yeah, this is then there's been a lot of talk of like, oh, how nifty would it be if we got to see uh be on course record watch the final year before they do this big rebuild. And you know, for those people who have been talking about it, I think they're gonna get what they're they they've been wishing for.

SPEAKER_01 20:03

Yeah, I mean, I think conditions are conducive to very fast times this year. The competition is very conducive to that as well. I think just how fierce women's racing is these days as well will also be conducive to course record watch.

SPEAKER_02 20:18

Yeah, and that's definitely super yeah, it's gonna be amazing because it's gonna make for great racing. Um it tends to lend for more people being there later when you just get to eliminate that variable of heat. You know, on the other hand, for western states historically, it's it's nice to see the heat carnage and and who can manage that additional variable because yeah, overheating, it it just causes so many problems.

SPEAKER_01 20:49

Yeah, and I think the last year it was relatively decent weather and pretty cool was 2023. It wasn't terribly hot, and that was a year we saw um very fast times, but then slowed down a little bit in the high country.

SPEAKER_02 21:00

And last year we got to see some hot weather and we got to see a we got to see some blow-ups last year. There was a there was a lot of carnage.

SPEAKER_01 21:07

There's also really fast times last year, too.

SPEAKER_02 21:09

Yeah, it's interesting. Yeah. So probably see fast times and maybe not as much carnage.

SPEAKER_03 21:17

Yeah.

SPEAKER_04 21:18

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SPEAKER_01 22:36

Okay. So I'd say Fuziao Zheng. So Fujiao has been has the fastest Western States finish time of any woman in this race this year. Um she's run 1620, and that was the year that I believe Katie Scheid won the race. And that was Fujiao's debut at Western States, and it was just absolutely incredible. So I think that Fujiao now has another Western States under her belt that I don't think had a perfect build last year. Her build this year looks quite good, peeking at what we mentioned was like 25 plus hours, doing a lot of training in the Grand Canyon, coming in with, I don't think, any niggles like she had in the past when she's raced here. And she's a great 100-mile runner. And I'm so, so excited to see her attack it perhaps a little differently this year. She was, I think, eighth place at Robinson Flat last year, moved her way up to third place around Michigan Bluff Forest Hill, and then um held that position or moved up to second place by the finish. And not far off of Abby Hall's uh winning time. I think the podium was within 13 minutes of each other last year, which to me that says that was truly anybody's ballgame at that point if anybody had a little hiccup in those last like 20 miles or so. Um so I'm very curious to see if we see Fu Xiao improve on that 1620 that she's run here in the past. And I believe on a good weather year, I mean she could take 20 minutes off that time at least.

SPEAKER_04 24:00

To add to your point about Fu Zhao, I'm thinking the connection I'm drawing, well, she's an Arctyric's athlete now, which I think is really interesting. And it was cool last year to see Caleb win Western under the banner of ACG, sort of like their first year like revitalized in the sport. And I'm just thinking, like from a business of sports standpoint, how cool would it be to see an Arctaryx athlete win Western states this year? Yeah, Arctaryx would really love to see that. And also just the conversational pace questions like what shoe is she wearing for Western States?

SPEAKER_02 24:28

Oh, for sure, yeah. I mean, I love seeing and we've seen it more and more in the last few years where not a lot of repeat brands have been in the top ten. I think I don't know if it was last year or two years ago, one of the either men's or women's top tens was no repeat brands.

SPEAKER_01 24:44

Yeah, that was really cool.

SPEAKER_02 24:45

Which is like super interesting. Going back to Fuzhia and her history at West two second place finishes. I always thought her like race day tactics were super interesting because she's a really fast 50k runner, a very good like technical descender. Why does she run the first 50k so slow?

SPEAKER_01 25:06

I know. And I'm curious to see if we see her employ a tactic that is running that first 50k Drobinton flat a bit more in the mix this year.

SPEAKER_02 25:15

Yeah, because even the year she got second to Katie, her I think entire Green Gate to the River was faster. And the she had one of the fastest like pointed rocks to the finish of all time. Um I think I was there commentating one of those years, and oh, it was definitely 2024. And it was incredible. Like there was like a trail of dust coming off her feet, like going off into the wind. I was like, Where where where was this spec 80 miles ago?

SPEAKER_04 25:48

I'll go next. Uh for me it's Tara Dower. And I think uh it's a curiosity thing for me. Obviously, there's the storyline of last year at this time of the year is sick for Western states, and then is the first person on the wait list that doesn't get pulled at a hard rock. So she's like at the start line, geared up, ready to go, and doesn't get picked. Uh now she's in both races this year. The curiosity pieces around like just seeing her Instagram stories and in in the focus on the hard rock course for a lot of June. Obviously, she's one of the fiercest competitors in our sport, super talented, um, has a lot of experience at a lot of these golden ticket races, uh, Black Canyon, Javelina, the course record there. And I think I'm just curious to see, like, in this age where we're increasingly seeing more specialization and dedication to specific races, uh, can she compete at the highest level at Western States with hard rock at the back of her mind, just two and weeks and change later?

SPEAKER_01 26:44

Yeah, I think something that's been cool about following Tara's journey in the last year, especially since she got her golden ticket at Havelena, is you know, we see some athletes being like having a focus for their training block for Western states on on volume, on workouts. And her whole focus this past spring has been on competitiveness and making herself be competitive in races that might not quite be what suit her best. And to practice like really racing people and racing at the front, even when it's uncomfortable for her. And I think that's going to bode quite well for her at Western States. It's going to be really interesting to see how it plays out. Tara just had an awesome Gorge 50K uh racing head to head with Jen Lichter and Meow Yow and was not too far off of them. I know. In a race that many would probably consider was not necessarily a wheelhouse for her. I don't even know what Tara's wheelhouse is anymore. She's turning into a pretty like well-rounded just racer. Yeah. My question to like this past weekend was like, what even is a wheelhouse? Because like I think sometimes we try to define ourselves as athletes, and Tara's somebody that is pretty hard to pinpoint in what she excels at because she is doing everything quite well right now. And Finn, you mentioned that she's gonna be an interesting one to follow. I think Brett and I have these categories of athletes who fall under this like redemption arc story. So Tara was here at Western States last year and got very sick in the week leading up to the race, was ready to go before that, like feeling very competitive, fast, fierce. And then her illness really took her out in the week prior, but she gave it a go, hoping to make it to the finish line in Auburn and ended up having to drop out on Cal Street. So I'm curious to see what she learned last year. I feel like it was a great learning year for her. And I mean, if anybody has a crew dialed in the sport, it's Tara Dower. So I think her crew got really good in practice last year, just like she did as well out on the course.

SPEAKER_04 28:30

I also think with Tara, there's she and I think Abby Hall's a good example of this too. There's there's a separation between like performance at golden ticket races and what you can do at the hundred mile distance in Western states. Like um, I just I think anything is possible here for Tara.

SPEAKER_02 28:48

How hard I mean I guess this is probably we'll come down to the individual, but how hard would it be to just eliminate from your mind knowing that you have hard rock in a couple weeks? Because hard rock is potentially harder to get into than western states. But if you want to win western states, you can't be thinking about anything other than the minute that you're in. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 29:14

I think she's the person that can do that. Compartmentalize.

SPEAKER_04 29:17

Yeah.

SPEAKER_03 29:17

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 29:18

Yeah, she's definitely got one of the better, better chances.

SPEAKER_04 29:22

That's a true double to me. If it's like if they're like two or three weeks apart, that's a double.

SPEAKER_01 29:26

Yeah, it's not three, four weeks, it's or nine weeks.

SPEAKER_02 29:29

Yeah, what do we what do we got? The 13 days?

SPEAKER_01 29:31

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 29:32

Something like that. Yeah, that's ooh, that's hard. And well, Leo, what do you think? Is recovering from a slower time hot year western states faster or slower than a cold year fast time western states?

SPEAKER_01 29:51

I think she will have an easier time recovering from a cool year fast time. Yeah. But honestly, Tara guts herself in these races. So I don't know how her recovery ever looks, but she's somebody that goes to the well regardless of conditions and everything. So I wouldn't be surprised if both of those scenarios, Tara is equally gutted at the finish line.

SPEAKER_04 30:10

Yeah, it's like doesn't matter. Yeah. It's hundred miles. I think it was amazing that last year she ran 80 miles at altitude in the Mammoth 200, and then a few weeks later went and got a course record at Havelia. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 30:20

It's versatile.

SPEAKER_04 30:21

It's really cool. Uh Brett, who's your like who's the first person that comes to mind for you? Who's your profile?

SPEAKER_02 30:27

Especially now with the heat being slightly less of a variable, Amolly Seidel is a name that I'm like getting more and more curious about. It's like if it was gonna be your classic hundred-degree day, I mean, I know she's spent a lot of time in Flagstaff and well, I guess Austin as well, like training in hot places, but to debut at the hundred-mile distance in a competitive field like this, there's just so much to learn and juggle and all that at the same time. But to allow it to be a little bit more of a foot race, and her training on Strava has looked great since Black Canyon. That's one of those ones where it's like, well, yeah, this is her debut, yeah, it's a lot longer than she'd done. Her Black Canyon was pretty good, but she's also like an Olympic medalist, and you don't like do that without being an absolute gamer. And I feel like that this year or like this setup is gonna give her a better opportunity to to kind of just ball out.

SPEAKER_01 31:36

Yeah, and I think she's taking the pressure off of herself in a lot of ways, too, of recognizing that this is a year for curiosity here at the distance and recognizing that I think something she said in a free trial interview was Western states will always be there. And recognizing, like, hey, if I don't nail it this first time, there will be other times that I can make it back to this race. And I actually think that lends to really good performances whenever you are thinking of it that way. It reminds me a lot of kind of like that Hannah Allgood Caitlin Fielder perspective last year of like, let's give it a go, let's learn some things, and let's nail it on our next attempt. But honestly, I could see Molly having nailed it on this first attempt too.

SPEAKER_02 32:16

And she's approaching it from the standpoint of like at any point in the race, there's still a lot of time. For some of these other women who have run lots of hundreds, this feels like a quick, like rushed hundred miler, but this is gonna be slowed down so much for Molly, where it's like, oh, you're you're five minutes out at four or still, but with her like floor of just cruising speed, like Molly's the one who could erase a five-minute gap in a couple miles if she's feeling good, just because that's so far from race paces that she's hit in the past.

SPEAKER_04 32:56

We we talk about this more so with Coca-Dona because that kind of brings in like the characters from other realms of the world, but I I do think there's a cultural piece here, and I think there like the Molly Seidel effect is pretty real. I don't know if we're gonna be getting like hundreds of thousands of people coming to the live stream because she's here racing, but I think like the right people to be influenced in like the track and field space and the marathoning scene are gonna be like watching this on Saturday, and that's gonna be really cool. Like, who does she in some way, shape, or form influence from that world that comes in like she did Rory?

SPEAKER_02 33:28

Oh, yeah, absolutely. There's going to be people who are in the road and track world who are tuning into Western States for the first time, and they're gonna leave like a fan of the race. And maybe also think if Molly can do it, maybe I could too. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 33:47

I do think Molly's doing it in what seems like all the right ways. She has a very experienced coach in Cliff Pittman. She's been really getting on trails almost exclusively during this training block. I think some of the other like road-to-trail converts we've seen over the years have just kind of done the tried and true training. Um, but I think she's really embracing what it takes to run 100 miles, but also run 100 miles on trails at altitude with various conditions and kind of taking it all in stride.

SPEAKER_02 34:13

Yeah, she's put like both feet in the trail door, not really keeping one foot in the road door, which we see a lot of road athletes are like, oh, I don't I want to be able to jump back to like my safe place at any given moment. Molly's like, has it hasn't looked back yet.

SPEAKER_03 34:28

Yeah.

SPEAKER_04 34:29

I know this field is super deep, and we'll probably talk about more folks when we talk matchups and we make our picks and maybe talk about like underrated and stuff. But Leah, is there another athlete that you want to spotlight?

SPEAKER_01 34:45

I'm excited. I have two here because I think actually, I'll just fix one. Martina Milmarchik, she was leading the race last year up until uh El Dorado Creek, Michigan Bluff area. It was her debut hundred-mile distance. Um, and also, yeah, her first time out here on the Western States course. And it looked like she was going to run away with it. She is last year's CCC champion, running just one minute off of a Blandine course record there. And I think if Blandine were lining up at Western States, we would all have her as one of our favorites to win the race. I think Martina learned a lot last year in her, you know, 50-ish miles on the course. She did come into 2026 a little beat up this year with I think an Achilles injury, um, but has since recovered and has thrown down some really good, like 50K, 50 mile-ish type training runs. And I think she's coming out here quite fit. So she's a Hoka athlete from Poland. She's the Poland national champ for their classic race and their vertical race just recently, um, I think back in like April or May. So not only is she good at these long distances, but she's got a beautiful stride. If anybody followed the uh CCC live stream last year, just a beautiful runner and um is extremely fast.

SPEAKER_02 36:02

I'm just looking at uh Martina's race history for the last two years. Well, I got two things. One is dating back to April of 2024, Martina is either no worse than second place if it's not a DNF. And it it it's and it's not I'm not saying she DNFs a lot. There's only been two DNFs in probably 15 races. All of them has been first or second place. But the other thing that amazes me is I was scrolling back further down to the bottom in 2021 to 2023, like we're talking 2022, CCC, 415th place, 17 hours, 2024, second place, 2025, first place, um Taraware 100K, 2023, 67th place, and then like figured out racing training. I don't know what it is, and then has just started dominating. Um, so that that's an an interesting career arc right there.

SPEAKER_01 37:12

Yeah, and she's somebody that I don't think last year spent much time out here prior to the race. Um, this block, I know she was part of the HOCA training camp that was going on in Flagstaff, spending a lot of time at altitude, training with like Bottie Brinks and the others in the Grand Canyon. So I do think she is you know prepared for you know kind of mountain west uh conditions out here. And yeah, I think she'll be ready to go.

SPEAKER_02 37:35

And her ability to win this race or improve greatly isn't a fitness thing, which that to me seems like one of the easier things to fix, where last year it was heat-related DNF, like not a fitness-related thing. Where it's like the fitness was probably there to win last year. Well, there's there's gonna be less heat this year. I mean, probably still wanted would you still be cooling and everything as if it was 95, 100 degrees?

SPEAKER_01 38:06

I think so. You'd need less of it. It wouldn't be the exact same, but you need less of it. And I think you can get away with kind of being a little bit more minimal out there. And I think one of the most apparent things um in a cooler year is just like the perceived exertion. Um, can a hot year versus a cool year. In my prior experience here, you are running the same perceived exertion out there, but you're running a two-hour section like 15 minutes faster. And it feels exactly the same. So I think that's what the athletes could likely encounter this weekend as well.

SPEAKER_02 38:37

Yeah, because on a on a hot year you're you're icing down, but you still feel hot. You still feel hot. This year you're icing down and you're feeling like very comfortable borderline cold.

SPEAKER_03 38:48

Exactly.

SPEAKER_04 38:49

I'm sure Brad hearing you talk about just her backstory is fascinating. I'm sure the answer's out there somewhere, but like that progression explanation, if anyone in the audience knows, let us know. But because yeah, like I think of people like Courtney, and if you go to her ultrasound, you'll see that she breaks out in like 2016-17, but there was like a five-year period where it was more modest results and she's like figuring this board out. So it's kind of cool to see just like rapid.

SPEAKER_02 39:14

Yeah, it's definitely it's it's cool to see, it's interesting too, because yeah, like what was it a training like resources to be able to allocate towards more time to train? Or is there something within yeah, just like not figuring out the racing element?

SPEAKER_03 39:32

Yeah, hopefully we get to hear the the full story of this career arc.

SPEAKER_04 39:38

Leah, who is the most underrated athlete in this woman's field?

SPEAKER_01 39:43

I think Hannah Allgood probably is. Uh, she was debuting here last year and was in the mix as high as about I think fourth place. So who was it was like Martina, Abby, and Ida Nielsen all kind of like one, two, three last year. And then Hannah was not too far behind them. Um she ended up falling back a bit, but still landing herself in a pretty comfortable top 10 position since her top 10 at Western States last year. She has switched coaches. She's now under Cliff Pittman from CTS. She's gone Strava Dark, sadly. Um anyone's Strava Dark is underrated. Yeah, I think so too. It's hard to talk about them. But I know Hannah's putting in the work and she had a specific focus pretty much since Western States last year of improving her skill set for Western states this year. So she did OCC last year after Western States, had a top 15 performance there, which was pretty awesome for somebody coming off of Western States who might not necessarily be a 50K specialist. But if anybody's been following Hannah and the 50K distance over the last couple of years, she could be a 50K specialist. Like she's done extremely well at that distance, especially out on like California carpet style trails in recent years. Um, but then she lined up at JFK last November to challenge herself on a runnable course, something that she might not consider necessarily a strength of hers and battled it out with Shay and Jade there and ended up in third place. And then this past spring hasn't done anything super hefty in distance, but has thrown down a few 50Ks like Lake Sonoma 50K, winning that and running a pretty fast time there. And I know has just been putting in the volume and the biggest volume that she's ever done on this current training block. So if I know anything about the CTS training, it's a lot of like three hour, four hour, five hour kind of back to back to back long runs. And I'm assuming Hannah's probably running upwards of like 16 to 20 hour weeks right now and probably feeling like fatigued at times, but probably tapering down and feeling quite good right now. So I think she's someone that isn't necessarily being talked about for the win, but I think could definitely put herself in position to win the race. And I wouldn't be surprised if she did land on the podium here.

SPEAKER_02 41:48

Yeah, Hannah's always been a leave no stone, unturned kind of um trainer in regards to getting ready for some of these races. And going back to what you said about like a Canna could be a 50K, like a runnable 50K specialist. That just makes the cruising speed at Western states all that much more comfortable. Like that's like a it's a tool that a lot of champions of the race have um in common. Especially when yeah, when you cross the river, you're I mean, if you're looking to win the race, you're probably running like just about every step once you cross the river, right?

SPEAKER_01 42:26

Yeah, and she's she's like a resilient runner too. And I think she's had success at a variety of distances and tree, I'll surface all distance, you know, like all of that. She's done a little bit of everything and has done it well. So I think she's somebody that nothing is quite outside of her skill set on this course. So at any given point during the race, I feel like she could turn it up a notch and she would be comfortable, whereas not necessarily every woman in this field would feel that way.

SPEAKER_04 42:51

I've got two. The first one, I don't and I don't know if I would consider her underrated because I think she has a lot of respect in the sport, but I wrote down Caitlin Fielder. I mean, she gave Ruth Crofts a really good run for her money at Tarawir earlier this year. Mega talent, decorated history at OCC, solid, respectable, responsible increase in distance as she has her career has, you know, transpired. I think she might have had foot issues last year at Western States and still finished inside the top 10. And I think she has the capability to be a podium contender here.

SPEAKER_01 43:25

Yeah, I think she was actually considering not racing Western States up until like a month prior to the race last year, uh, due to some like family and personal issues, and then actually pulled her quad, I think, during Western States, like tore it. So she ended up having I think a two-month post Western States recovery period after tearing her quad during Western States and still ran the race that she did here. And like Caitlin has gone head to head with Ruth Croft a number of times. And recently this past spring was what, like less than 10 minutes, maybe five minutes off of Ruth Atarawera. Pretty awesome.

SPEAKER_04 43:57

And then I also just I just have here a note. Note that says one of these two I believe will finish in the top ten, Elaine Matarisi or Sarah Humble. And these are the only two runners that I would consider to be in the elite class who are under the age of 30. They're in their 20s. That's cool. So this is like the next generation. I just see one of at least one of them is going to be in the top ten.

SPEAKER_02 44:20

I could I mean I could see that happening, especially if you're not necessarily racing for the win.

SPEAKER_04 44:28

Yes, totally. Which is a different race.

SPEAKER_02 44:31

It is, yeah. And you can definitely play that game. I think you can still play that game at Western States racing for a top 10.

SPEAKER_01 44:39

I think so. And I think there is a category of athletes that are definitely doing that. And I think Elainey and Sarah, I'd put them in that category. I think something that's interesting about Elainey is um just this, like, I mean, her she ran her first hundred Ks this spring. So she did Black Canyon, got a top 10, ran Canyon's 100K, got her golden ticket there, and then this will be her first hundred. So that is a very hefty six months for somebody that had never run over, you know, maybe a 50k distance prior to this.

SPEAKER_02 45:08

Wasn't her first 50K like mammoth last fall? It's like she hasn't even been an ultra runner for a full year.

SPEAKER_01 45:15

Yeah, I think her first trawl race was like a year ago.

SPEAKER_02 45:17

Yeah, that's that's cool to see. I mean, I listened to her interview on your podcast with uh Katie, and um yeah, it sounds like the progression of running and just like going all in on whatever it is that she's doing and finding success in it because it's not so much like I'm just trying to win all these races. She's like, I just wanted to do it because I wanted to try it and explain. And she's like, I did that 50k, and it was pretty cool. And I was like, I feel pretty good. Maybe I should try a hundred K. And then Sharon Black Canyon was like, that went pretty good. I was running with some people who I are very good at running. Maybe I should go for a golden ticket at Canyons. And she gets like, She did it. Shoot, yeah. It's like what what how how long can she keep progressing like this?

SPEAKER_01 46:08

Like, and I mean, she just recently picked up support from Hoka. Um, that after speaking with Wally Brinks here yesterday, it seems like Hoka really supported their athletes coming into Western States this year. So that has to be helpful. I think uh she recently got into medical school and is taking a year for deferral before entering medical school, which is pretty cool. So she can just focus on uh alternating for the next little bit.

SPEAKER_04 46:32

Any matchups you're looking forward to, Leah? Oh yeah. So many. One-on-one to one. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 46:39

Okay. So we haven't even scratched the surface with Abby Hall and Jen Lichter here yet. I think they are probably the two favorites coming into this race. Um, I don't necessarily foresee them going head-to-head immediately out of the gate, but I think they are the two favorites, and they're two very interesting favorites because Jen Lichter has never run 100 miles. She's never been at Western States. Um Abby was a complete underdog in some ways last year and kind of overlooked, um, considering kind of the way she made her way into Western States.

SPEAKER_04 47:10

She was in the studio here.

SPEAKER_01 47:11

She was in the studio, and Finn interviews most Western States winners, somehow, somehow.

SPEAKER_02 47:16

So all of them.

SPEAKER_01 47:17

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 47:17

Turns out.

SPEAKER_01 47:18

Turns out. Finn's a good luck chart. Um, but Abby Hall is like her training is bonkers this year. Uh something that she reflects on. I think at the end of every calendar year is kind of what her training has looked like in that in that past year. And she's been with Jason Coop as an athlete for several years now. And each year they don't necessarily do anything crazy with their training, they just grow kind of incrementally. And I think that's what we've seen with Abby's training this block is yeah, perhaps she's adding like one or two hours a week from last year, but she's not doing anything different at all. They're kind of doing what has worked for her in the past. And her training just looks like she's been taking it in, she's been absorbing it, and she's gonna be ready to go. Uh, she had a fifth place at Black Canyon this past spring, I think running 20 plus minutes faster than she did last year when she got fifth place. I'm starting to believe that Abby is a really great hundredk to a hundred mile runner. So I think the longer it gets relative to the field is where we see her shine the most. And I think, of course, like Western states will showcase that once again.

SPEAKER_04 48:23

Raid Research is the official equipment and apparel partner of our 2026 Western States 100 coverage. You've definitely heard me talk about their LF5L Vest launch and their Trail Tech shorts in the past. And yes, they are both already sold out, but they're gonna be restocked in early July. So make sure that you are subscribed to their mailing list so you don't miss the update. In other news, Raid has many new summer trail products set to release later this week. They are relaunching their first running tee. That's gonna be followed by an ultralight Anorak Rain Shell, women's cargo crop top, and a very exciting women's specific belt in the first half of July. So again, join their mailing list so you don't miss a beat. Other than that, if you are listening to this during the week of TrailCon and in the area, Raid is gonna have a booth there. So go say hello. Thanks again to Raid for supporting our coverage this week. Go check out all of their products at raidresearch.com. And if you end up buying anything at checkout, please let them know that the folks at Single Track sent you.

SPEAKER_02 49:21

Should we play a thinking game? Sure. All right, Leah. How does Abbey Hall beat Jen Lichter at Western States? And vice versa, how does Jen Lichter beat Abbey Hall? Because we we're both pretty familiar with their racing styles and their strengths. So, like, where do you see one like running away from the other?

SPEAKER_01 49:47

Yeah, that's a great question. That's a great thought exercise. Um, it seems like Jen Lichter really runs her own race, like truly, and but she also is a good racer. So, for example, at Gorge this year, she was on Meow Yow's heels, um, just looking happy and controlled for as long as possible, just keeping her effort in check until she like had that moment of like, hey, I can tell I'm feeling better here. Let's turn it on and push it a little bit. So I could see Jen employing similar tactics here of kind of just letting somebody take the lead, sitting back comfortable, and then making a move later on when she can recognize that somebody could be struggling. So I see Jen taking the lead or winning this race if she sits behind Abby for a long enough time feeling comfortable, controlling her controllables, taking care of herself, and then surging in that last like 20 miles after the river. I think Abby wins the race if she goes balls to the wall from the start.

SPEAKER_04 50:50

Do you think Abby will have to be more out of her comfort zone than Jen? I think so.

SPEAKER_02 50:54

I was thinking the exact opposite. Like for everything you just said, I would have flip-flopped their names.

SPEAKER_03 51:00

Really?

SPEAKER_02 51:01

I was thinking because Jen has such a good mountain running background, that if she could get separation through the canyons and then just run scared after Forest Hill. But then for Abby, because she's got the hundred-mile experience, I was like, she can't let Jen go and then has to just like grind it down to the finish.

SPEAKER_03 51:25

Man. Normally we agree.

SPEAKER_02 51:28

I know. I was like, that way, I was I was curious. That's why I wanted to play this game because I was like, but I also everything you said makes sense.

SPEAKER_01 51:36

Yeah, like I I don't know if this is true or not, but I could imagine Jen is very like respect, she's respecting the distance this year, and she's probably slightly afraid of the distance. So I think she's going into this race, wanting to make sure she doesn't mess anything up. And I think one way that she could do that is just cueing off of somebody else's effort early on, and then like kind of tapping into her own energy more in that like second half to last third of the race.

SPEAKER_02 52:02

That definitely makes the most sense as a Western States debut, 100-mile debut. It wouldn't surprise me though if she was in the lead at Michigan Bluff. Yeah. Because she's very fast and it's like this is the slowest race pace she'll have had, and it's like, I thought, I thought it was I thought I was going easy and just all of a sudden started running away.

SPEAKER_01 52:28

Do one of you have that training week of gens for reference that we chatted about a couple weeks back?

SPEAKER_02 52:34

Oh, isn't it like on the Western States course?

SPEAKER_01 52:36

Yeah, I think I uh this is just off the top of my head, and I could be wrong in fake. You can fact check me. I think it was like 170 miles in a seven-day period. All on the Western States course. On the Western States course. Roughly. Like maybe there's a run or two that was not, but at least.

SPEAKER_02 52:50

Do you know if that was in seven runs?

SPEAKER_01 52:52

Well, there was, I think I had sent Finn one stat that was like 150 miles, was only in like six runs or something. So I think 170 probably was in seven runs then.

SPEAKER_02 53:02

So that's a potentially kind of a new training trend. And I don't know where the term came from. It's like a shock week where you're like absolutely loading up one week to get like a big training stimulus a couple weeks later.

SPEAKER_01 53:22

And yeah.

SPEAKER_02 53:23

I'm curious. I want to learn more about this because I've it seems like we're seeing it a little bit. Like we've seen back-to-back long run.

SPEAKER_01 53:30

What do you think about that from a coaching perspective?

SPEAKER_02 53:33

I don't, yeah, I don't, I don't quite understand the like physiology. I mean, Killian, when we had him in the studio, he kind of touched on it briefly where he was surprised, because he was gathering tons of data during his states of elevation project, and he said he was very surprised to see that aerobically and metabolically, he was actually getting fitter. He thought he would just be going into a big deficit the entire time. But he was like, Hold the phone. Like he's like, I'm only sleeping four hours a night, but he was like, the numbers didn't lie. He was like, I was absorbing the training, and he continued to feel great. He was like, I was getting fitter from these huge days. And he attributed a lot of that to um low stress levels. He thinks a lot of people's like overtraining is more stress about how tired they are, which then compounds to just more stress.

SPEAKER_04 54:30

What do you got, Finn? So I I think this has been talked about before, but on May 18th of this year, so about a month ago, Jen ran Robinson Flat through Cal Street just about 50 miles in 701. And this was a part of a week where she did like another 30-mile run in the canyons in five hours. She did an I mean, ran to the fit like the last 25 miles of the course in four hours, just incredible fatigue resistance like midweek. Cadence 186 steps per minute on that 50 mile run, which is just insane.

SPEAKER_03 55:11

Yeah, what do you think about that?

SPEAKER_04 55:16

The first I remember posting this, I think, in one of our group chats after seeing the seven-hour run. That was the first time I was wondering, I was like, are we talking about sub-15 in this year? Because just seeing the rest of the week play out. I know she's been partially Strava Dark. The fact that it seemed like she was able to recover from that effort and still put in bigger miles the rest of the week. Uh sub-maximal effort, very much sub-maximal effort. And can some I don't know. That was that was the first time when I think the breaking the course record this year, independent of the temperatures, kind of was on the board for me. Yeah. And even something as absurd as sub-15 is on the table.

SPEAKER_01 55:57

Yeah, I know. She's someone interesting too, because I think before Black Canyon, we kind of had those question marks about her performance at the 100K distance, like, could she do it successfully? And I think something her training block for Black Canyon and the outcome at Black Canyon showed us was like she's putting in the work, she's absorbing the work, she's fueling the work that she's doing, and she's truly being a professional about it. And I think that part is really important. Like, is she recovering successfully? Is she, you know, keeping a good balance when she's doing this work? Because that is, I think Abby Hall had um commented on something similar during her one of her big training weeks was like, this is a nine to five right now. Um, when these athletes are doing these like seven-hour runs, six-hour runs, five hour runs, when you talk about commuting to and from the trail, like that is a nine to five job at that point. And I think that's what we're seeing. Um, people like Abby and people like Jen, that's how they're approaching Western states this year. And I think it really speaks to where the sport is going and the true professionalism of it. Um, does that make it out of touch for some of the people who have full-time jobs? I kind of wish that was a question we would have asked Lottie when she was here yesterday because she's one of the few athletes who is holding down a full-time job on the start line this year. And I'm curious about kind of like the pros and cons of those.

SPEAKER_02 57:10

We're gonna have to do a post-race uh full-time pro count in the top 10 and maybe go back a couple years to see historically if that really is changing because it it sure feels like it.

SPEAKER_04 57:25

Last thing on the matchups, we we have to acknowledge Fuzhiao versus Marianne.

SPEAKER_02 57:29

Yes, I think this is a great one. I think Marianne gets I feel like she always gets somewhat underlooked going into Western states.

SPEAKER_01 57:37

And she's solid.

SPEAKER_02 57:39

I I put her in the category of can win this race. Yes. I still think she's one of the uh she has the ability to try very, very hard.

SPEAKER_01 57:53

Yes. Like there's few athletes out there in the trill and ultra world that I feel like outperform their training, and Marianne is historically one of them. And I think it's because she can dig extremely deep. She's very similar to Tara Dower in that way. Like their body is telling them no, but their mind is telling them yes, and they are just pushing well beyond that. And Marianne is that person, especially on the Western States and UTMB course. And Fu Xiao and Marianne both have um multiple podiums at both Western States and UTMB. Like they've been on the biggest world stages, but neither of them have won either of those races when they're on the big world stage.

SPEAKER_04 58:32

And adapted to the current era too. Like she totally has podium to different eras of Western states.

SPEAKER_02 58:37

Yep. And they've logged a lot of training models together.

SPEAKER_01 58:39

A ton. And like they're both coached by different coaches, but their training is actually like quite similar from a volume perspective, but they've done a lot of their training in Flagstaff, Sedona, and the Grand Canyon together, and recently putting in a 50-mile rim-to-rim-drim training run together, uh, which they weren't going slow either. It was a pretty solid time. And Mary Ann has spent actually a lot of time in the Grand Canyon this block as recently as like it's probably gonna be like 10 to 14 days out from the race. I think she put in a seven-hour run in the Grand Canyon and then like a five-hour run in the last two-ish weeks. So that's the one thing that gives me like slight reservation with Marianne is like, I think there was a 110-degree day that she was in the canyon putting in a six or seven hour run, um, which seems kind of close to the race. But Marianne's a really strong runner and she's coming into the race physically healthy this year, which I think is not always the case for her.

SPEAKER_02 59:32

Yeah, that's it, that's big for Marianne because I mean Marianne's come into some races pretty beat up and still run very well. I mean, she's like one of the last people to overtake Katie Scheid in a race.

SPEAKER_04 59:45

She was almost DT.

SPEAKER_01 59:46

Yeah, and I think Marianne was dealing with some back stuff coming into the race last year. Um, when she ran Canyons, she alludes to the fact that like she was just running that race to get that done and get into Western States. Like that was not a great race for her, and it was not her full potential, and she wasn't necessarily even didn't even have a good training block for that race. And she still what came second to Emily Hoggett last year when she ran her way into Western States. So for her to have that kind of block this year. I know she wasn't running as much in the winter to try to like preserve her health coming into the spring and was doing a lot of skiing and whatnot. So I think she's going to be pretty fresh and feeling good and I think ready to go for it here at Western States.

SPEAKER_04 1:00:25

I told you guys offline, sort of joking, that earlier today I was in the village and she came running by and we just had a quick hills and I was like, I forgot how good Marianne is.

SPEAKER_01 1:00:37

Recency bias.

SPEAKER_02 1:00:38

I was just looking at Marianne's um results, and she hasn't really done she had a DNF at uh Diagonal DeFu, you know, last fall. But since then she actually hasn't logged like any big, big races and is just, you know.

SPEAKER_01 1:00:53

I think she did that like Eco Trail Paris race. Which is interesting. So I think Katie Scheid did that the year that she won Western States, I believe she ran one of the Eco Trail Paris races.

SPEAKER_02 1:01:03

The Eco Trail Paris effect. Okay.

SPEAKER_04 1:01:05

Okay, Brett. The time is now the time is. Let's get let's let's get your podium.

SPEAKER_02 1:01:11

My podium picks. Okay.

SPEAKER_04 1:01:12

If you want to elaborate, feel free.

SPEAKER_01 1:01:13

Can we we haven't talked about the people who aren't running Western States this year who were initially running? Maybe we should uh touch on those so we don't get raked through the coals.

SPEAKER_04 1:01:22

Ann Flower. Yes. Um Sylvia Nordskar.

SPEAKER_01 1:01:26

And Keely Henninger.

SPEAKER_04 1:01:28

Keely Henninger.

SPEAKER_01 1:01:29

I think those are the main ones, at least of the elite women's field. I think those are the main four that have recently pulled out for injury, pregnancy, or another reason.

SPEAKER_02 1:01:36

Yeah. Good call. Before I go into my picks, another name that I'm very curious about on the Western States star line this year is Riley Brady. Because Riley's got the momentum of a good canyons.

SPEAKER_03 1:01:49

Yes.

SPEAKER_02 1:01:50

And Riley's had some big wins. Yep. And I'm just so curious if this will be potentially a better weather year for Riley not having to deal with as much heat. Because it seems like it it's either like stomach problems leads to not a good race or little to no stomach problems and a very, very good race.

SPEAKER_01 1:02:16

Like what is it's it's kind of like one or the other with Riley.

SPEAKER_02 1:02:19

What's Riley's ceiling at Western States? Like how how high could Riley place?

SPEAKER_01 1:02:24

I think Riley could win this race. I think they need the stars to align, the stomach to align, and have a pretty perfect day out there. But honestly, with the way conditions are looking, I think that would easily place Riley in the mix of potentially going forward off the start line, similar to the approach I could foresee Abbey Hall.

SPEAKER_02 1:02:40

Because we talk we talk about a lot of people who've had success or won Black Canyon running fast times there. Oh yeah, they could potentially win Wizards. It's like Riley did that a couple years ago, wire to wire, nearly wire to wire.

SPEAKER_01 1:02:55

And Riley is part of the redemption arc story from last year. We had Martina Monarchic, DNF, Terra Dower, DNF, and Riley was another one that DNF'd here last year. Riley was here in the past with a top 20 finish, I believe. Uh so this will be Riley's third start line at Western States.

SPEAKER_03 1:03:10

And hopefully first uh first top ten. I wrote down five. Go ahead. Give us five. Okay.

SPEAKER_04 1:03:19

So my f then explain the podium.

SPEAKER_02 1:03:22

Okay. So fifth place. Molly Seidel. I don't think Is this the Lone Madrone talking? No, I wrote this before. Before the Lone Madrone started whispering into my ear. But I was really impressed with Molly's Black Canyon. And I've been very impressed with Molly's training since Black Canyon. And now with the conditions and Molly's a yeah, you said like this is potentially a multi-year thing for Molly. I could see Molly being in it to win it and just microfading a little bit in a similar way that we saw at Black Canyon. Because we saw like, you know, skipping what's the station after Bumblebee?

SPEAKER_03 1:04:20

I don't know. It's not Deep Canyon Ranch.

SPEAKER_02 1:04:23

No, it's not Deep Canyon Ranch. That's one after Hidden Treasure. Maybe. Yeah, I think you're right. Skipping that, I heard it on the live stream. And like we all know that's like a death sentence for Black Canyon.

SPEAKER_04 1:04:32

Micro fate of the year.

SPEAKER_02 1:04:34

Yeah, and then to I was like, oh, she's she's dropping out. Like she's gonna come, she'll have run out of water 20, 30 minutes before coming into Deep Canyon. But going back to what you said, really experienced coach. Coach heard that on the live stream and was like, okay, we gotta hold her at the aid station, make sure we really ice her down, extra fluids, prevent the full blow up. And then Molly is still a good enough of a runner and tough enough of a racer to just keep it going. And I could see a similar thing happening at Western State, so that's why I'm actually throwing her in my top five now. Four, I've got Fu Zhao Zhang. Three, I've got Mary Ann Hogan, because yeah, I I I feel like they're gonna be really close to each other. And the last few years it's been Fuziao instead of in front of Mary Ann, but one of them is on that on that breakout. And I and I I do think this podium is gonna be like historically fast. And then and then of course we have the Jenlichter Abbey Hall battle. And I think I'm gonna go with Jenlichter for second and Abbey Hall for the win, and our first repeat women's champion in quite a few years.

SPEAKER_03 1:05:56

I don't think that's a pretty good top five.

SPEAKER_02 1:05:59

I think I think we're in between the course record and 16 hours. My my my guess is going to be in like the 1540.

SPEAKER_01 1:06:09

So it's going to be like the Katie Scheide winning time.

SPEAKER_02 1:06:11

I think so. Yeah. Because that's so good. In my opinion, that is still so good. So good. I would love to be proven wrong and like just smash the course record. But I'm just going off of what what I've seen here in the past. And I think running 1540 on this course is still one of the all-time best performances. Just when you look at the course record progression and how how much time has gotten taken off, but there's still like the bulk has been in the 17-18 hour range. Then like you throw a 15 and change. Because how many, how many sub-16s have we had on Western states? Two?

SPEAKER_03 1:06:51

Two? Yeah.

unknown 1:06:53

Two.

SPEAKER_02 1:06:54

So we're going to add a third. No, we're going to actually add two more. We're going to have two under 16 hours.

SPEAKER_01 1:06:59

Yeah, and I think that's worth mentioning too. It just made me think about prior times here. So Fuzhao's 1620 here is the third fastest time in Western States history. Abbey Hall's time last year was the fourth fastest time in Western States history. And I think there's seven. Well, let me think if I get this right. Seven of the seven or nine of the top twenty-five times at Western States are run by women who are running this year. I think it's seven women have run nine of the top 25 fastest times.

SPEAKER_02 1:07:27

I'm not even going to fact check that. Like I'm pretty sure you're right. And just like for the record, Leah's computer's just asleep. There's nothing out there. Like that's just straight off the dome, and she's probably right.

SPEAKER_01 1:07:37

But I guess a pushback. And I don't even I my top five is gonna come off the top of my head and I'm gonna make it up in the moment. But we have not talked about Ingvild Kasperson, who is one of those seven women who have run a top 25 time here. And I actually think she's run. Yeah, I think the 10th fastest time um at Western States and the fastest debut uh when she ran it.

SPEAKER_02 1:07:59

Would you that's 100 mile debut because Fuzhou was in that same race and that was her Western States debut. But this was Ingvilde's Western States debut and 100 mile debut.

SPEAKER_01 1:08:12

Yep. And I mean, she absolutely crushed it and I think ran a pretty safe race that year to secure what was a fifth place finish, but a really fast time because all the the times were extremely historic that year. And Ingvilde took a year off from Western States and is back this year as somebody that we didn't discuss much here, but I I believe is quite healthy and quite fast and coming off of Chianti battle with Courtney and Rachel and Trickin. And I think she's only put in uh more volume and great training between now and then.

SPEAKER_02 1:08:41

Yeah, if you're if you're as good as your recent race peers, Ingvilde is in very good company leading up to Western states.

SPEAKER_01 1:08:51

Yes. And I believe she's a medical professional. She works as a physician and has not spent much time out on the course like others have in this block. Um, I think if there's anything that's um maybe like one knock to her preparation, I would say it's probably that, which is unfortunate for her. But I think there's a lot of people who train best in you know whatever their most like comfortable atmosphere is. And I think hers is just like training back at home and getting in the miles back at home.

SPEAKER_04 1:09:18

I think the Molly pick is really interesting, and this is for a totally separate show, but I do believe by the end of the decade she'll be a champion here.

SPEAKER_02 1:09:25

Do you you think it it seems like for certain in her career, she's is a Western States win. So okay, that's a good future, future prediction.

SPEAKER_04 1:09:34

Mine? Oh, this was so tough. And I wrote these down and I'm gonna stick to them. In third, I have Abby Hall. In second, I have Lottie Brinks, in first, I have Jen Lichter, which actually mirror my power rankings. I think the thing to note about Abby is if CCC is an indication that once she quote unquote arrives at a distance or a race like that, I think she tends to stick the landing in subsequent performances. Like I think it was like second at CCC and then third, even as the race got faster. That you could reverse those two places, I can't remember exactly. And I I I just can't see her making a regression here. In fact, I my prediction is that she runs a much faster time than she ran last year. But just the rest of the race gets faster too. Um I've got Lottie in second. I think for a lot of people listening, this is gonna be such a flyer pick because again, there's people who are proven here, like Fuzhiao and Marianne, but people like Martina who you know when they perform, but they're always on the podium. But there's just something that tells me Lottie's gonna do something pretty special here, and she does have the Western States experience. So she's kind of gotten the monkey off her back there. And then my pick for the win is Jen Lichter. And I know that just like historically this is a risk because it's so hard to nail it your first time, let alone win. But it has happened though before. It has happened. And I just think Jen Lichter is the best runner in the sport right now, period. So let me uh let me ask a question first. I just I just want to hear it now. If you if you if you ported Courtney DeWalter's 2023 time to 2026, sorry, if you if you ported her effort to this year's conditions, what does 1529 33 translate to? I think 10 minutes faster. I think 10 minutes faster. Just 10.

SPEAKER_01 1:11:31

Yeah, because I actually think the snow helped conserve some energy that year. Like for somebody that gets on snow often, which Courtney does in Bloodville. So I think maybe for other people not so much, but I think for Courtney it actually like helped her play it a little bit more safe in some ways.

SPEAKER_02 1:11:46

Yeah, really and no no radiating heat at all for the first 50k. Yeah. Like you get like cold air coming up, which yeah, it'll be interesting to see how the the basically the splits to Robinson flat compare to 2023. But that is a good point. How there was a lot of people who were very split. The the mountain folks were totally comfortable in the snow, and then there was a good amount of other people that were like. Oh yeah, I'm screwed from the first step.

SPEAKER_04 1:12:17

I think I think through Forest Hill she's on sub 15-hour pace and she fades but wins in 15-1706.

unknown 1:12:26

Dang.

SPEAKER_02 1:12:26

Oh, you had a 10-minute, dozen-minute course record.

SPEAKER_01 1:12:30

I was looking back at Iron Farr tweets from last year. God bless Iron Farr. They just it's such a great historical record of how the race played out. But Martina Monarchik was 12 minutes ahead of course record pace, uh, going into, I believe it was Dusty Corners. Um, and like the asterisk there is that when Courtney set the course record, like that was quite snowy for the first 20 miles. So it made sense that it would be pretty significant, but that is quite significant. So imagine this year we roll up at Dusty Corners and we're seeing somebody run, you know, 12 to 15 minutes under course record pace. If they keep adding to that and extending to that, I mean that puts that 15-hour mark that Finn loves to talk about way more in perspective.

SPEAKER_02 1:13:13

Dusty Corners is the one after Robinson Platt. Yeah. Right? Yes. Or uh I thought Duncan.

SPEAKER_04 1:13:19

Duncan is before Robinson. Yes, Dusty is.

SPEAKER_02 1:13:22

Yeah, I always get those two mix of minutes. Duncan, Robinson. Robinson, yes. Dusty. Yes. Okay. The only reason I mentioned that is because it's like now that's like beyond like what 34 or 35 miles into the race, which is pretty, pretty far.

SPEAKER_04 1:13:37

One last thing. I have four women running under 16.

unknown 1:13:40

Okay.

SPEAKER_04 1:13:41

So I think it'll be Who's your four who's number four then? Uh my four, I think, is Marianne.

SPEAKER_01 1:13:46

Nice. That's how we get Finn to talk about five picks.

SPEAKER_02 1:13:48

Yeah.

SPEAKER_04 1:13:49

So who you got for fifth?

SPEAKER_01 1:13:50

Yeah, and who's losing to Marianne? That's just because you saw Marianne running in the village today.

SPEAKER_04 1:13:58

Okay, Leah, who do you got?

SPEAKER_01 1:14:00

Okay. I'm just gonna start backwards and make it up as I go. We got Hannah all good in fifth.

SPEAKER_04 1:14:07

Yes. Um so defying the power rankings.

SPEAKER_01 1:14:11

Yes, correct. So yeah, we obviously get some flack for our power rankings, but we're still working on it.

SPEAKER_02 1:14:17

It's a work in progress.

SPEAKER_01 1:14:18

Yeah, there's there's some people like that we were trying to make that solar powered right now. Yeah. More objective. And these ones are more of like how we actually think the race will play out. I think Hannah learned a lot last year. I think we saw her race aggressive up in that like fourth place position. I think she's only gained strength and fitness this year. And I think we'll see her kind of like actually improve her time considerably because I think her time was exceeded 1730. So maybe it was something 1730x last year. Um, but I bet you we see her improve by like 45 minutes, and that's going to be like a fifth place finish. Um, I know something she said, I think it was in her interview with AJW, was that um she has a time in mind and she knows that time would place her quite high in the race. Um, so yeah, I'm hoping it's I mean, actually, I do hope it's a a year where we see a lot of these uh ceilings being shattered as it relates to time, but um, I'm hoping Hannah does go out and just like race people and not think too much about time. But yeah, Hannah in fifth. Um, let's go Mary Ann in fourth, Fuzhao in third. Oh gosh. I want to put Martina up there. Let's go Martina in second, and we'll go Abby Hall with the win. And I'm sorry, Jen Lichter. But I do, man, I I don't know, Jen.

SPEAKER_02 1:15:36

I do think that's a realistic scenario though.

SPEAKER_01 1:15:38

Like it is.

SPEAKER_02 1:15:40

We could all give 50 different top five combinations, and they could all very well happen.

SPEAKER_01 1:15:48

Yeah. But you know, I got I I think I had Jen Jen off my predictions for Black Canyon, and I got slaughtered for those. So we'll just we're just doubling down. But I I do think Jen is such a contender here, and I think I honestly do think she'll either win or like maybe blow up. Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 1:16:08

Did you say you said Abby Hall?

SPEAKER_01 1:16:10

Yeah, Abby Hall for the Win.

SPEAKER_02 1:16:11

Abby Hall for the Win.

SPEAKER_04 1:16:12

Very last question before we go. Which brand will be most represented in the women's top 10?

SPEAKER_01 1:16:19

I think Tarix is already really up there significantly. But there was two people we didn't really discuss from Tarix, Fiona Pascal and Emily Hoggood. Um, I know Fiona is um winding up with kind of a injury um that she's had for the last couple months and has done a lot of just like uphill exclusively training um for Western States. So I think she's likely aiming more for like a top 10 position this year. Um Emily Hoggood again is coming off of five consecutive uh Western States top tens here with last year's being a 10th place finish. Um I thought like Kaylin Fielder's also terrics, Hannah all good's terrics.

SPEAKER_02 1:16:55

Well they're just playing the numbers game.

SPEAKER_01 1:16:57

I know. There's a lot of them. So I think Tarix will definitely dominate the top ten.

SPEAKER_04 1:17:01

Yeah, good broken arrow, too.

SPEAKER_01 1:17:02

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 1:17:03

Mm-hmm. Yeah, I think I agree with that. I mean, yeah, you'd think Hoka would be really pushing for having a bunch.

SPEAKER_04 1:17:10

Um if they get one this year on the men's side, that'll be a success.

SPEAKER_02 1:17:14

I know they had I mean Hoka had a terrible day at Western States last year, just straight up. I mean 'cause like I mean, well like Hayden got hurt, Jim, you know, both of them didn't start, and then Adam blew up. Rod didn't have a good day. So that that's part of the redemption arc. Um, you know, it was Foo Fuja was kind of carrying the team back there. But Fujia's are Tarix now. Oh and now it's now it's uh Lottie and Martina?

SPEAKER_03 1:17:47

Martin and uh Elaine. Yeah.

SPEAKER_04 1:17:50

Yeah. Do you think they could have three? I'm also Tarix, I think. Yeah. To me, just the math. The math, maths. The math, math.

SPEAKER_01 1:17:59

Is there anybody you feel like you need to defend not having in like if say the pitchforks come out and people are like, you didn't mention this person, you didn't have this? Who do you feel like you need to defend right now?

SPEAKER_04 1:18:10

Yeah, because she's just been so consistent at this race this entire like she might be the most consistent person at this race in the last decade. Like when you think 2020s, the decade of the 2020s, Western states, it's like Emily Hoggett's gonna finish fourth, fifth, like middle of the top ten. Um yeah, just like looking at like I think races that she's historically done and then done recently, just seeing maybe a little bit of a slide there, and with how competitive the women's race is getting year over year. Like I'm just looking at those margins as I'm making my picks. But massive respect for the first five or six years here of this decade has been an incredible run.

SPEAKER_01 1:18:47

Yeah, Emily's somebody that's gotten fourth place, fourth place, fifth, seventh, and tenth, I think is what we said before we started recording. And I think a stat that I pulled out was she's it's it's nice to look back at Emily's like training and ultra sign-up because she typically runs the same races in her buildup to Western States most of these years in like the the Auburn area, and she's run the salmon river 50k, I think, for the last five years, five or six years, and she's lined up at Western States most of those years. And um, I think that's a race where we like have seen her like times get a little slower over time. And last year I know she had a little bit of a uh suffer fest to her 10th place finish and really held on strong at the end there. Um, but I think yeah, alluded to some like sodium issues early on. So hoping Emily can stick the landing here this year.

SPEAKER_02 1:19:31

You know, the pitchforks are coming out for for us as for not having teared down top fives. And I mean the the the potential of the ceiling is there, but it's I don't know, it just seems so hard for me to even conceptualize knowing that you have hard rock in two weeks. And and then kind of Leah going back to like what you said, like I think there was a couple social media posts of you know Tara doing some pretty big uh weeks over in the San Juans and like how how much can you have you know one foot in one door and one in the other for Western states in this day and age?

SPEAKER_03 1:20:18

Yeah. Hard to say.

SPEAKER_01 1:20:21

And I mean, I think Tara's gonna have a great race out there. I think she commented I somewhere about just being like extremely heat trained to the point where like her heart rate doesn't even like really get up in the sauna anymore. So I'm sure she's somebody that actually would have fared quite well on a hot day out here. And perhaps that would have been that would be a race where we would have had more confidence in having her higher up in our our standings.

unknown 1:20:42

Yeah.

SPEAKER_04 1:20:43

Also trying to evaluate 20 people. There's 20 people that could win this race.

SPEAKER_01 1:20:46

Yeah, there's a lot this year. I feel like this is an extremely open field. Um, I know there's several people that are swimming in my mind that we haven't even mentioned, like Hauha, who was a top 10 finisher here last year, who's been out on the course, who could very well be a podium contend contender as well, and lots of other golden ticket uh winners like Lauren Period, Holly Ranson, and like there's just so many people. And then there's dark horses too.

SPEAKER_04 1:21:10

Before we go, uh what to look forward to the rest of the week. Tonight we're interviewing Jen Lichter. Tomorrow morning, Tara Dower. We've got a men's preview episode, and then I think we're closing with a coaching conversation with David Roche. Oh, and we got Zach Miller.

SPEAKER_02 1:21:24

Yeah, I was gonna say you forgot about Zach. Classic.

SPEAKER_04 1:21:32

Uh so we've got a great slate of remaining content. Thank you both for this awesome in-depth women's preview. You wanted to say something, Brett. The depth is deep. Oh, yeah. Show them your shirt. Is that a Courtney Olsen official?

SPEAKER_02 1:21:46

Yes, this is a this is a one of one. The depth is deep, official. Uh Courtney Olson created shirt. Just crushed it at comrades. Yep. Amazing comrades race, and this is the time of the year when I get to break this shirt out.

SPEAKER_01 1:22:02

Do you think the depth is deep in the swimming's field this year?

SPEAKER_02 1:22:05

Oh my gosh. Yeah. Like Marianus Trench levels of depth. Yeah, if you don't if you don't know how to swim, best of luck for you. Your toes are not touching the bottom of this pool.

SPEAKER_04 1:22:18

All right. Thanks for tuning in to our 2026 Western States 100 coverage. This is our fourth year doing it, and we're having the time of our lives. Before we go, I wanted to ask the following from you: if you're motivated to contribute to what we're doing, please consider leaving a detailed rating and review on Apple and Spotify. Leave a comment on any of these episodes on YouTube and support our partners and let them know that we sent you. For example, uh, go get one of the new vests from Raid the LF5L, let them know that we sent you at checkout. Same goes for Norda or Precision. Use our discount code in the show notes there, and use the link as well to complete their nutrition planner for your next race. These are the specific actions that truly keep the lights on for us and make this annual pilgrimage to Olympic Valley, this tradition, this great tradition possible. Thanks for considering, and we will see you on the next episode.