2026 Western States 100 Men's Field Preview | Analysis, Storylines, Predictions

Finn Melanson, Brett Hornig, Jeff Colt, and Rod Farvard provide in-depth analysis, commentary, and predictions for the competition in this year’s men's field at the Western States 100. 

Partners:

• Precision Fuel and Hydration - use code SINGLETRACK at checkout for 15% off your next order
• Norda - check out the 005: the lightest, fastest, most stable trail racing shoe ever made
• Raide - Making equipment for efficient human-powered movement in the mountains 

Transcript

SPEAKER_08 0:00

Norda is the official footwear partner of our 2026 Western States 100 coverage. All the rage this summer is the imminent release of their new model, the 055, the shoe that Rachel Enterkin wore start to finish en route to her course record victory at the Cocodona 250 earlier this year. Go check it out at NordaRun.com and make sure you are subscribed to their mailing list to get exclusive early access to the shoe. I've put a bunch of training miles in it. It's the real deal. We are back with one of our final shows of the week. It's the 2026 Minnesfield Preview. I'm joined by friends, colleagues. We got Brett Hornig, who is not present with us. That's okay. We've got, but excited to have you here, obviously, with the Exercise Fisher. We've got Jeff Easy Dog Cole. And because we never sleep on the east side of the Sierra, we've also invited Rod Farvard onto the studio. Starting with you, Rod, how are you doing today?

SPEAKER_07 0:50

I'm doing great. It feels very strange to be here in Olympic Valley during Western States week and not be racing and drinking a cider shout out.

SPEAKER_05 1:00

Lone Madrone winery.

SPEAKER_07 1:02

Thank you. Um but it's it's fun to be sitting on this couch with you guys, and this is gonna be an exciting race to spectate.

SPEAKER_08 1:12

Jeff, you're also joining us for the first time this week.

SPEAKER_01 1:14

How are you doing? Doing pretty well. Uh flew in from Colorado today, and yeah, the energy in Olympic Valley is is popping off. I think there's a lot of potential for Saturday and just feeling the vibes.

SPEAKER_08 1:31

And Brett, I mean, you've been we've been crushing it on the content front.

SPEAKER_05 1:36

Yeah, there's been uh a lot of great conversations in the single track studio this week. Um I feel like this is gonna be another good one.

SPEAKER_08 1:47

And yeah, you you mentioned them earlier, but we got to give one final shout out here to Lone Madrone. This is uh this is one of the coolest sponsors that we've had.

SPEAKER_01 1:56

And this is credit to you. You can tell the alcohol is working on Finn.

SPEAKER_05 2:01

Yeah, I'm glad you're sipping the estate Zinfandel out of a water cup.

SPEAKER_08 2:06

It's like I just I just think the vessel is irrelevant.

SPEAKER_05 2:10

I mean, honestly, there's some people in the wine industry that would agree with you. Um your hands are heating up the wine now. That's it's a big no-no.

SPEAKER_08 2:22

Let's dive right into it. Uh same same opening question that we did with the women's field preview. For each of you, the top, the biggest storyline, Rod. Like what is the overarching headline for this men's field?

SPEAKER_04 2:37

Will sub-14 happen? Will the veterans hold it down? Will Jim get his fifth victory? I think on the 14 question, that just seems like a it almost seems like a an obvious conclusion at this point.

SPEAKER_08 2:55

Like, I think we were wondering about it like a month ago, but I mean, Rod, does the weather kind of can like is that an inevitability at this point?

SPEAKER_07 3:03

Yeah, I mean, signs would point that way, definitely. Uh, but you never know, right? Like what if it gets tactical? Yeah, what if it gets tactical? I don't I don't necessarily think it will. I think there's some people in this field that are lining up to break sub-14, like that is their goal. Um it's not necessarily well, it it is to win, but I I I think like the way they're thinking about the win is like I'm gonna time trial this race. Um, because the weather is aligning. But that being said, that could lead to so much blow-up as well. Um and yeah, you could you could be on pace for sub-14 till uh ALT, you know, and then like anything can happen. There's a lot of race left. So I if this sport has taught anyone anything, I think is that predictions m mean nothing. Like, yeah, if we sit on this couch, you guys do this for a living turn it off.

SPEAKER_01 4:05

But uh I think it is telling that four of us all, without a doubt, said it was gonna go well under 14 hours.

SPEAKER_08 4:14

Yeah, we'll say it again at the end of this episode, but Emily Cameron, who's been doing a wonderful job with our content all week, had us go round table on our predictions, and I think you had the slowest predicted finishing time at 13 54. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 4:27

I mean, that's 15 minutes under course record pace.

SPEAKER_07 4:32

That's so absurd.

SPEAKER_01 4:34

That's a lot.

SPEAKER_08 4:36

And Rod, you were just telling us a minute ago that you'd take about 30 seconds off of finishing time by by each degree that's falling on the predicted uh forecast.

SPEAKER_07 4:45

Yeah, my um very, very scientific algorithm predicted that.

SPEAKER_08 4:49

So Jeff, you think this will be the hardest year for Walmsley to I think without a doubt.

SPEAKER_01 4:56

And Rod, that's no uh nothing against you. I think you gave him a real run for his money. I think uh I think there's a lot of runners who are here with well under 14 in mind. And I think Jim has talked through the fact that he's the only person who's actually like quantifiably done it if you think of faffing about aid stations and you know what what could have been. But I I think the combination of like training, training groups are a really cool element that's been going on this year coming into this race. Nutrition and like folks really having this uh time in mind. The the fact that it's gonna be a high of 75 in Auburn on Saturday is like only adding to that.

SPEAKER_07 5:49

I think it's interesting just uh also hearing Jim talk about sub-14. He as being the only person who's you know been there and almost there, he still talks about it as like we don't no one understands how hard it is to do that.

SPEAKER_08 6:07

What are the parts that we don't appreciate?

SPEAKER_07 6:10

I don't I think I think at a certain level, like it there's only so much more A station time you can cut down. There's only so much faster you could run up a climb, there's only so much harder you can run down and descent without blowing up your quads. So like a lot of these things you you you take away time here, but then there is massive, massive potential to add on time later by doing something like that that in the pursuit of the sub-14.

SPEAKER_05 6:39

So so if you're gonna go for sub-14, like you have to fully commit to it as soon as the gun goes off. I think so.

SPEAKER_01 6:47

I think the other element that's like Jim is alluding to there is it's like everything has to go right, and the temperature is gonna be a a contributing factor. If it is a little bit cooler, it's that much easier to run a little bit quicker, you know, on the half marathon descent from Robinson. Um, but the like just thinking about Caleb Olsen's performance last year, which was truly phenomenal. Like, I think when he got to Mile 80, he was like, How much do I want this? Like, this is so hard. How do I keep kind of pushing at this level to ensure that I actually get there maybe under course record pace or even just in first? Um the margin for error is really, really small. And like everything has to go right and you have to be in the right headspace. You need to be able to maintain that right headspace all the way to the end. I like I think it's easy for all of us to throw out these numbers that are well under 14 hours. But like if Jim is the one saying it's way harder than it looks, and we all project that Jim is going to be like, you know, potentially the winner, that carries some weight.

SPEAKER_08 8:07

Brett, I know that Jim has a a decorated history here, and in past years we've put him on a pedestal. Is it still fair to put him on a pedestal in 2025? 2026, I should say.

SPEAKER_05 8:18

I bel I believe so. I mean historically, if Jim starts a race, especially Western states, he's he's in it to win it. You know, like he he seems to be the guy to beat, especially at this race, if he's on the start line. But you know, there everyone else has been bridging that gap over the last decade um on this course to him. And while he probably still is, you know, he's one of the most experienced on this course, especially with how analytical he is with the splits and knowing what is possible for himself, there is a huge number of people who have been training with beating him or running that particular time in mind. And when you just play the numbers game, if you know there's like 10 guys that are fit enough to break 14 hours, like you only need one to stick it and have that day. And you know, last year we saw I think more than one person really stick it and have an amazing day.

SPEAKER_08 9:24

What do you think, Rod? Pedestal? Or is the field converging? Are they are they figuring out the difference?

SPEAKER_07 9:32

I mean, Western States aside Jim won every race he entered last year injured. So I think he's he has he rightfully is at the top of the pedestal still. Yeah, I feel like people are figuring out how to run Western States, but at the end of the day, I think people are still keying off Jim on running Western States. So I don't I it's gonna be interesting to see who takes a lead early or who um yeah wants to to fight, you know, with him and no matter like how hard he goes out. Um you know, a lot of like a lot of Western States is reps as well. And looking at this field too, there you know, there even though there are people who have been in the sport a long time, a lot of them haven't run Western States before either. Like they don't they don't know like all the you know that you can watch tape, you can like read people's reports and like figure stuff out, but like you haven't experienced the aid station yourself. You haven't like done the all the cooling methods yourself and like figured out where to like cut time and those are all like the little things it takes to win this race now, I think, other than just being fit enough on paper to run sub-14.

SPEAKER_01 10:54

I think having Jim on the couch last year, I think he insinuated and and led me to believe a little bit that he feels like he's like people are closing the gap and that he's like maybe shared too much, even though he still keeps things pretty close to chest. But I go back to the Tyler Green like coming into El Dorado Um Canyon and asking like who else has jumped in the river, and they're like just Jim, and he was like, I got this, like I'm gonna get second. Um, like those little secrets, the more those secrets I do are divulged, the more you know that gap can be closed. And even Jim sharing with other runners, like Caleb or Adam, like you guys shouldn't be sharing all your stuff on on Strava, like you should keep more things close to your chest. I think uh I think he feels that the threat is real. And like that actually is pretty intimidating to me because I think if Jim thinks the threat is real, the performance we might get out of him might be that much more uh explosive. Like the fireworks might really go off. So I don't think that Jim is running sub-14 without people pushing him.

SPEAKER_08 12:10

I loved his comment on this couch last year talking about Rod and Tim. He called it two-on-one on Cal Street.

SPEAKER_05 12:16

Yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_08 12:16

And then he thought you guys were playing like mind games.

SPEAKER_05 12:19

He said the same with uh Hayden and Dan too, like coming down through swinging bridge. He was like, and it was a two-on-one. And I don't know if they thought it was that way, but I at least made up that note. And I took that personally. Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 12:30

But with that said, like, Killian's not having pacers, I think he said, but like I'm pretty sure most other folks plan on having pacers.

SPEAKER_08 12:37

And like Oh yeah, Killian, no pacers.

SPEAKER_01 12:39

Yeah. And I don't think Jim will have pacers.

SPEAKER_08 12:42

Is pa is having a pacer at Western an undeniable competitive advantage? Like, is Killian yielding something with no pacers?

SPEAKER_01 12:48

I think it depends on who you are. I also found his comment on like, yeah, I don't like at this point, I think he said he'd love to go back in time to when like he finished races and won and like really felt excited about it, and now it's just like kind of transactional. It was a good day. Yeah, it's a good day.

SPEAKER_00 13:07

Um, but yeah I I do feel like there's an advantage of having a pacer.

SPEAKER_07 13:12

I I don't think there's any disadvantage, but some people, you know, might not have the same boost as as others from it. Um I think at the end of the day it's going to lift your spirits, um, which could help. But yeah, I think there's like I think the kind of beauty of the sport too is that there is there's style in how you do things. And um I think like you can win in very different ways, and people like take note of that, and you can you can approach races in very different ways and and people put an asterisk around that, you know? And um, yeah, I think there is like a a cool creativity around it, and like some people really take that to heart. And you know, I think for people like Killian and Jim who have went who have won a lot, like now it's thinking about like how they want to win as well. And it's the same way like going for like an FKT, you know, like like it is about like the style you do it too, and I think like adding adding a pacer is like some people don't want that asterisk, you know.

SPEAKER_05 14:17

Yeah. We did this with the women's uh preview, but we'll play the game with Jim. How does someone beat Jim at Western States?

SPEAKER_08 14:28

Two on one.

SPEAKER_05 14:29

Two on one.

SPEAKER_08 14:31

I mean, is it was your if you if your strategy was fully executed past ALT, was that the strategy?

SPEAKER_07 14:39

Yeah, I mean, I think what what did it, what kind of like got in Jim's head, um, and and maybe that's it, it's getting in his head more than anything. He is like, I think he is physiologically the best person on the start line for this course. Um, and I think he knows that, and I think he's fit. And I think when he sees someone running out of an aid station in front of them, wondering what he's doing wrong, I think that kind of stuff can like get in his head. And um it's it's more of a a head game than anything. And uh I think like, yeah, I think if at ALT, if when he made the move on me, I think if I responded back, that would have been another kind of mental dagger, and you know, who knows what would have happened. I he was definitely like stronger than me at the end, anyways. But all those little things add up, and as soon as he starts like questioning himself or like using mental energy to like understand how much time he needs to like make back out of the aid station, those those are those are the ways to do it.

SPEAKER_04 15:48

So you gotta be with him on Cal Street, honestly. Yeah, otherwise there's no way.

SPEAKER_01 15:56

I think it's like I I see Hans, Hayden, Fran, Fran, um like playing a role of pushing pace early. And even if two of them are up ahead and one of them is with Jim, like that one that's with Jim, what they say, can be like the the head games. Um, be that like we we'll be patient, they'll come back to us, or like we need to push. Um in some way, I do feel like there are a couple runners in this field who could make it so that Jim doesn't win, but I don't think that they could also win. Like I think there is a fast push-early contingent and a mountain strength sweep contingent. And if the fast push-early contingent tries to break Jim, they'll break themselves as well, and the more mountain fit contingent will end up taking the day.

SPEAKER_08 16:54

Brett, was your was your storyline around old guard versus new guard?

SPEAKER_05 16:59

Uh yeah, just like will the vet like yeah, will the veterans of this race be the higher placing runners?

SPEAKER_08 17:06

Okay, so are you taking experience or peak fitness physiology?

SPEAKER_05 17:10

It seems like every year the the the like window where we think like peak fitnesses gets bigger by one more year because everyone who we keep expecting or like anticipating to decline, they just don't. So then we've got like 41-year-old LeBron just like still dunking on people, and we're like, I guess I guess this is just how it is now.

SPEAKER_07 17:35

Yeah. I guess uh with that question too, are we are we talking more like Western states reps or just years in the sport as the experience?

SPEAKER_05 17:44

I was thinking Western states reps as as like the veterans.

SPEAKER_07 17:49

Can you name those people?

SPEAKER_05 17:51

So let's see, Killian Killian's got this'll be his fourth four dating back to 2010.

SPEAKER_08 17:58

This will be Jim's what sixth seventh? Jim's seventh. It'll be seven. Seven starts.

SPEAKER_05 18:04

Yeah. Hayden's got uh five, three finishes, one DNF.

SPEAKER_08 18:10

So this will be five.

SPEAKER_05 18:11

Um this is Adam Peterman's third.

SPEAKER_04 18:15

Yep.

SPEAKER_05 18:16

Um that's oh Dan Jones.

SPEAKER_01 18:23

He's pretty consistent.

SPEAKER_05 18:24

Yeah, and this is his fifth western states now. And four top fives, is that right? Four top fives.

SPEAKER_06 18:30

Or is it his fourth western states? Maybe this is fourth. I could find him. But um yeah, there's like 22 years old. I had 23 last. 23? 24, 25.

SPEAKER_08 18:42

I mean, who's Newgard for you, Rod?

SPEAKER_07 18:46

Man, I still feel like one Western State is Newgard for me. Um, so I'm thinking Poopy, obviously, zero. Um, Hans will be a second, Zach Zero. So we're calling Zach a Newgard.

SPEAKER_05 19:03

Yeah, I know Zach Miller's like, I didn't know where to place him in this veteran, but Western States rookie.

SPEAKER_07 19:08

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 19:09

Uh I also think there's folks who've been around Western states a good bit, even though like it's Jeff McGavro's second race, but he's paced it three times before that. It's Jess's first. Um, I think Jess Ren Small has paced it three times coming into this year. And so like some of that like familiarity with the course is is interesting and and just like what it takes from Forest Hol to the finish.

SPEAKER_05 19:36

I agree. Um, yeah. Uh this is Will Murray's first Western well yeah, this is first Western second time training for it. Um Canyon Woodward, Thomas Cardin. Tracen. Trayson.

SPEAKER_08 19:53

I mean, it sounds like the way we're talking about Jim, we're not expecting a passing of the torch. Even or collectively, maybe there's a different story?

SPEAKER_07 20:00

Yeah, I think more like um maybe Jim is in his own kind of class for this conversation, but I I do think uh yeah, like will there be more newer people in front of the older people?

SPEAKER_01 20:14

And that's kind of where I think Dan Jones is a really good median like test for that. Um I think he's gotten fourth, fifth, fourth. So I think this is his fourth uh Western Seeds. I don't predict Dan Jones to be in the top five this year. And I think there will be new faces in the top five this year. Um and in that regard, like I know what Killian's capable of, I know what Hayden's capable of, I certainly know what Jim's capable of. Um like if Adam Peterman, I guess he he has run twice, so this is his third. Like if he's if he's old guard, but Jeff McGaver's new guard, Franz new guard, like Hans's new guard, I I think we see more quote unquote new guard in the top five than old guard.

SPEAKER_07 21:02

What do you think the mentality of a lot of the new guard is? Is it just to get a solid do what Jim does say or or to win? Because that changes it. I mean, uh like starting my my fourth states, I was kind of like over it, you know. Like I just wanted to take a big swing and see what happens. And I I don't know, it I feel like it took a few years to want to to want it.

SPEAKER_08 21:29

Do you wish you had started that right off the bat?

SPEAKER_07 21:34

No, I don't think I was I was I think my progression was was great, honestly, for for myself. But um yeah, and granted, like those first couple years I didn't even do that and I blew up. So it's hard to picture just swinging that early in my career. Which is kind of like interesting. But these these people, this new guard, quote unquote, is is insanely talented, you know. Like they all have the ability right now to do it.

SPEAKER_05 22:03

Also, when did you run what year did you run your first Western States? Twenty-one. That was f five years ago now. Do you feel like there's more public information about kind of just the Western States playbook now than there was even five years ago?

SPEAKER_07 22:18

100%. My one resource was Chris Brown's blog.

SPEAKER_05 22:21

Yeah, so so it count it. Potentially solid resource to have a great first go at Western States. Yeah. You're right. I feel like of like a the names that you'd mentioned. I feel like Francesco, Zach Miller, they're they're here to try and win this thing.

SPEAKER_01 22:40

I mean, let's zoom out and look at Hoka, right? Like they just did a team training camp in Flagstaff where a lot of them got to run together, like experience and new guard all in the same place, training together, understanding what each other's doing for training and whatnot. Like, I think there's a ton of value there. And one of the reasons I rank Hans so highly is I feel like for anyone in our sport, and this is recency bias, listening to Hans pre-race interviews and Francesco's pre-race interviews, Hans has the gym mentality from 2016, 2017 of like, you should bet on me because like I'm, you know, quote unquote younger and fitter, despite it being another year older. And like I think Francesco has uh maybe a bit more humility, but like I I think both of those guys getting the opportunity to train with you, getting the opportunity to train with Jim, Hayden, Adam, that's a huge benefit. I similar to you, I had a one-hour call with Tim Tolfson before Western States, and he told me to be like a leaf in the river and take the path of least resistance and just like flow like water. And that was the advice I had going in 2022. So like I it was great advice. Uh, but like, you know, the the amount of preparation, the amount of focus, the amount of support, all of these factors for like the quote unquote new guard, it makes I think Francesco and Hans are two of the fittest runners in our sport right now. So for them to have that access does give them a different level of advantage. And uh Hans has been here, you know, running 16 hours last year. That's a that's a fast time. It was his first hundred. I know right now Jeff McGavro has that fastest like debut Western states at 1430. That was not his first hundred. Like, I don't actually think a debut states is as significant as a debut hundred. So I think what what Francesco maybe has going up against him is a bit more than maybe what Zach Miller, which is crazy to think that this is his debut states, um has, you know, uh what he's going up against. But I I do think the new guard is more prepared this year than kind of ever before. And some of that is training groups, some of that is access to information.

SPEAKER_05 25:11

Another Hoka athlete that I I I think is in the new the New Guard um Bouillard Yeah. Like he's a UTMB champ. Yeah, you know, he had a rough go last year and he had a knee problem coming down through like out of Forest Hill on the Cal Street, but like total dark horse.

SPEAKER_04 25:32

Yeah, where is he at, Rod?

SPEAKER_05 25:34

Like physically?

SPEAKER_04 25:35

Yeah. He's here. Okay, yeah. Yeah.

SPEAKER_07 25:39

He uh he was spending time in Santa Barbara before this, doing some work.

SPEAKER_04 25:44

Yeah, exactly.

SPEAKER_05 25:46

Perfecting the bet the perfect Western State shoe.

SPEAKER_07 25:50

Yeah. Um no, I I I think yeah, I think Vonson has so much going for him. Um I think he is so like out of the spotlight, he removes himself from it. He is a gamer, you know, he loves to race, and I think like having that experience last year um really shook him. And like I think he wants to show up here and do it. And not having eyes on him is like the best place he can be given you know what he did at UTMB, and nobody talked about him at all.

SPEAKER_05 26:27

So I feel like he's like towards like one of the top people in like the the redemption arc type uh storylines of the race.

SPEAKER_08 26:36

Precision fuel and hydration is the official nutrition partner of our 2026 Western States 100 coverage. And guess what? They've got a new watermelon flavor of their chews launching this Tuesday, or Tuesday, as they're calling it, June 23rd. If you've utilized their original or mint and lemon flavored chews before, you'll probably be stoked. I received a sample a few weeks back. The taste is great. The watermelon is there, and it's kind of like a chewy Jolly Rancher sensation. Same as always, each packet contains two chews efficiently delivering 15 grams of carbs each. They've got a high carb to weight ratio, making them a great choice when you need to travel light. They contain no artificial ingredients, they're vegan and gluten-free, and batch tested for anti-doping. And again, they taste amazing. And to celebrate the launch, Precision is going to be at Trailcom with a watermelon stall by the Precision Fuel and Hydration Stage in the Event Village. And then they're going to be supporting their athletes all weekend out there on the Broken Arrow and Western States courses. If you want to try these out for yourself, head over to their website, pick up a pack, and please use code SINGLETRACK at checkout for 15% off your next order. Thanks to Precision for making this content possible. Let me uh and I want to get to athlete profiles in a second, but while we're on the topic of just like sort of like the miscellaneous stuff, Jeff, you added the open question about like will we see any new crewing strategies or more of what was new in recent years? Is there something that comes to mind for you?

SPEAKER_01 28:01

I think last year just seeing CTS out there like with the kiddie pool, like it looked almost like an outright advantage if you were a CTS athlete to have these like iced down kiddie pools at Michigan Bluff and Forest Hill. Um, with the heat not seeming like quite as much of a factor this year. I'm curious about that. But one of the other things was you know, Jim's comment on like intentionally going down to Ruckachucky before the race and like actually clearing a path down to the river that he knew about to go down and dip, which is that's no you pass him, Rod.

SPEAKER_07 28:41

I didn't even hear that. He did that before the race.

SPEAKER_05 28:43

You didn't know about this. He did this before the race. Yeah, tell him a story. Yeah, like this is the only spot where you can access the river.

SPEAKER_01 28:49

So he like went down and like cleared it out so he could make sure to get in the river for that cooldown before the five-minute hill. And like that right there was like, wow, like everything about our conversation with Jim last year was really enlightening. Uh, he is way more methodical and analytical than I I would have believed beforehand. But like hearing that extent of like, wow, like it's it's good to have a couple secrets up your sleeve type of deal. With those secrets kind of being out there, like what strategy are we seeing? And you know, for me, swinging bridge was never a swimming swim bowl location. It was always El Dorado Creek, Volcano Creek, and then the river crossing. But then adding in this like cleared path down to the American River before Five Minute Hill, it's like, all right, Jim's Jim's thinking through this like at a different level. Um, will we see anything this year? And that also goes for either like gear or tech advantages um that could be out there.

SPEAKER_05 29:57

Yeah, there's the cooler weather definitely does add an interesting element because it's never so cold where you you're just like where you stop icing. You know, like it's still like usually it's about add 10 to 15 degrees in the canyons. You know, if it's 70, 75 at Forest Hill, it's still 85, 90 in the canyons. Like, so you should probably be icing up through those spots, like dunking. But then it's like uh Jeff McGavro said last year, he was like, I had too much ice on me because I was getting to my next spots and like it wasn't even close to melted out. So like I need to be more calculated with the the exact number of cubes, you know, relative to the temperature. So that way it's like I'm not carrying any extra crap with me.

SPEAKER_01 30:44

I think that's also an element of like, will we see sub-14? If you can leave Forest Hill and use the same ice bandana and not have to refill ice all the way to the river, that's that's different. Like refilling ice at Cal 1, Cal two, like that that takes some time. Um, so like those little things I think all have to go right. I still can't believe we all shot so far under 14 hours. But I I hope to see it. Like, I do think that this field is strong enough and talented enough that they can push each other to be that much quicker.

SPEAKER_07 31:21

Yeah. I think we'll also see less vests, maybe more belts.

SPEAKER_05 31:26

Um, get away with a little less fluid.

SPEAKER_07 31:28

Less fluid, you only have to fill up one bottle at an aid station instead of both. Like those are all things that save time.

SPEAKER_05 31:35

Um one less pound as well.

SPEAKER_07 31:38

Exactly. Climbing through the canyons with less ice on you, with less bottles on you. Yeah. It'll be interesting to see the canyon split.

SPEAKER_05 31:46

Yeah. And like it'll also be interesting to see who threads that needle too much on the wrong side of minimal. And you know, like who skips icing down at last chance and then actually melts through the canyons because they were like, well, it felt so nice up there.

SPEAKER_01 32:03

Don't skip that one.

SPEAKER_05 32:04

What?

SPEAKER_01 32:04

Don't skip last chance.

SPEAKER_05 32:05

Yeah, exactly. Okay, that was why I threw that one out there. Because, but like people are gonna be thinking it. Like you're running, you feel amazing there, and you're like, oh, um, it's not even hot up here. Who's who's gonna make those mistakes?

SPEAKER_08 32:18

We talked a ton about the weather in the women's preview, but at least one update we have as of this morning is on race morning in Olympic Valley, up to 60 mile per hour wind gusts. I don't know if you guys saw this.

SPEAKER_07 32:29

Up top. I think we're gonna see another fire on the course. Oh.

SPEAKER_08 32:33

Yeah, because what, two years ago over by um Green Gate, and that screwed a lot of crews.

SPEAKER_01 32:39

Actually, in 2023, also there was some pretty significant smoke coming through Duncan Canyon. Oh, really?

SPEAKER_04 32:47

Um burning right now. No. Okay, there's nothing burning right now.

SPEAKER_01 32:53

But if it's hot and windy, we could see that.

SPEAKER_07 32:56

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 32:56

Um, I don't know if winds will play that much of a role. Uh this side of Palisades is on the uh protected side. Like, and once you're over it, you get into the woods pretty quickly there. It might be unpleasant for spectators up at uh up at the pass.

SPEAKER_07 33:14

But what direction is the wind? Is this gonna be like a Boston marathon tailing? I said the same thing.

SPEAKER_05 33:18

I was like, I was like, are we about to have absolute insane record splits up the escarpment? Because like you're just getting pushed by the hands of Mother Nature. Who's who's gonna lead over the escarpment? I'm just gonna throw that one out there right now. Who's you who you got for first person over the escarpment?

SPEAKER_08 33:37

Is it an Adam Kimball type?

SPEAKER_05 33:40

Do you think it's gonna be like Adam Kimball?

SPEAKER_01 33:44

I kind of want it to be Hans, um, but that's also like the race that I want to see. I think that Hayden at this point is actually quite mature and is like more likely to be cool, calm, and collected going up the escarpment. Um, Hayden, someone I don't think we've talked much about, but who is definitely in that old guard and lots of experience here. He is of anyone in this race. Uh, the one that has gone toe-to-toe with Jim and been broken by Jim. So I think he's maybe smart enough to not let uh let that play out again.

SPEAKER_07 34:20

But yeah, it won't be Hayden. I'm gonna say Jeff. Yeah, just he hasn't used heart.

SPEAKER_08 34:32

Just to add in, Brett, this was actually from you a couple years ago, but at Hard Rock, you joked that when Ludo made the pass on Francois Grandspont Pass. That actually ended up being the fateful move of the race.

SPEAKER_07 34:43

Yeah, like the side of the lead.

SPEAKER_08 34:44

I don't think we can underplay these.

SPEAKER_07 34:46

Yeah, and like if if the goal is go as fast as possible, someone has to do it. Someone's gotta be pushing the escarpment, right?

SPEAKER_05 34:57

I did. Okay. Yeah. And I mean, on one hand, it's probably nice to have the open trail in front of you. Oh, that was great. Yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_08 35:04

Did you feel like you needed to? Or was that just like in the moment it kind of just worked out that way?

SPEAKER_07 35:09

I feel like I needed to. Like in retrospect, I feel like I needed to. I think it set the tone for me of like what I wanted to do on that day. Yeah.

SPEAKER_05 35:17

That's why I think it's gonna be canyon woodwork. Like, let's go. Yeah, I don't know. I feel like he never starts like that, right? That's why he's gonna do it. And like, and then he gets the trail to himself, and like if anyone wants to go around him, they have to get all awkward with it. I think it's gonna be Canyon.

SPEAKER_01 35:37

So Ryan Montgomery also has a lot of experience in this race, and I just thought of him because the year that you led over the escarpment, I think he was right on your heels. Yeah. Um, he likes going up fast, he likes starting strong. I do not know anything about his season so far this year or what he's coming into this race with in terms of preparedness and and uh and fire in his eyes, but I do think that he likes making a statement early. He could be someone to look out for. Um I'll go ahead and say I think that Jeff McGavro, Adam Peterman, and Will Murray have a chemistry that is pretty dangerous, and it's it's similar to the Hayden Hawks Dan Jones chemistry, where you see these folks who've trained together and like are willing to pick each other up, but also willing to push each other in a way that is really helpful.

SPEAKER_07 36:33

Um just say bromance, it's fine. I was gonna say bromance. Yeah, through the Western thruple.

SPEAKER_01 36:39

Yeah, I think okay. They are in Montana. That's yeah.

SPEAKER_07 36:42

That's a great one because we're the groups that are gonna work together.

SPEAKER_05 36:45

Yeah, like I Dan and Hayden, I just feel like it's Dan and I feel like they didn't train that much together as well.

SPEAKER_07 36:52

But they'll they'll say Hans and Hayden have for sure.

SPEAKER_01 36:57

Yeah, and I kind of see Dan Jones like maybe aligning a little bit more Tarix with with Jesh. Um true. But yeah, Hans and Hayden. I like maybe Fran and Jim. Um it's a little hard to say on that front.

SPEAKER_05 37:14

Yeah, I mean, there's a a meme page out there that is very widely.

SPEAKER_08 37:21

There are rankings.

SPEAKER_05 37:23

You've been eyes, but how did I get thrown on that shit? It's a particular talent.

SPEAKER_01 37:27

It's the mustache, Ron. They needed some mustache.

SPEAKER_05 37:30

Uh so there is there is a like internal team battle between Hans and Francesco, for sure. Yeah.

SPEAKER_07 37:36

Yeah, I could see that. I could see like Francesco wanting to, but Jim being like, go away.

SPEAKER_04 37:45

Jim.

SPEAKER_05 37:45

Yeah, I mean, on this course, it seems like Jim has always operated best at Western States when he's by himself, just like doing his own thing.

SPEAKER_08 37:54

Is Killian gonna be that way?

SPEAKER_05 37:56

I don't think. I feel like Killian and he didn't want to play the game when we interviewed him, because I wanted to ask him if you could just have a straight redo of last year. Do you think you could change the outcome? And like before I even got to ask the question, he was like, I don't like to think about parallel universes. I'm like, that's because you've already thought about it. Because I I think he just made a practical error last year, yeah, letting people go um a little bit too early on. So I don't think Killian's given like anyone an inch this year.

SPEAKER_01 38:24

I I do still see see Killian and Jim as like a pretty good pairing. Sorry, Killian and Jeff McGavro as a pretty good pairing. And I think one of the reasons they ended up running together so much last year is like that's I think it's a natural position if you think that the folks in front of you are running recklessly fast. Like they are the mountain kind of like strong legs that I'm referring to who like could could clean up. Um I think their 20 plus exchanges of you know passes last year. Um, it's not just because Killian is faster on the uphill and Jeff's faster on the downhill, like they were also running very similarly paced the entire time, and I think their strengths are are similar on a course like this.

SPEAKER_05 39:10

I like Jim and Von Saint. I could see that being a who's Thomas Gardon?

SPEAKER_01 39:16

Tomas Gardon running with I love that guy.

SPEAKER_05 39:20

Yeah, let's talk more about Thomas.

SPEAKER_08 39:25

The only communication he knows is winning.

SPEAKER_05 39:27

Yeah. Yeah, that's a direct quote.

SPEAKER_08 39:29

That's a direct quote from Milan Stone.

SPEAKER_05 39:32

Wow.

SPEAKER_08 39:33

The only did you read this our interview that he did?

SPEAKER_01 39:35

No.

SPEAKER_08 39:36

Oh, it's in I mean Jeff.

SPEAKER_01 39:37

Yeah, it's it's like actually like more so than Hans, more so than Francesco. Like, that is the interview that I was like, huh. Like the only person I can think of in this sport who would say that in our modern day is Jim. Um, like he's just like, you know, it's funny that you'd consider this a step up for me or like count me out in any way, because like everything I've stepped up to, I've won, and that's the only communication or language I know. Kind of deal.

SPEAKER_07 40:04

That is so badass.

SPEAKER_05 40:05

I mean, this is a five-hour step up, though, right? Yeah, I think the longest race he's done is nine hours and fifty-eight minutes. Okay, four hours, yeah.

SPEAKER_02 40:13

Well, it could be just like a three-hour step up for him.

SPEAKER_05 40:16

I guess Francesco's in the same boat though. Yeah. Yeah, Fran's the same way. Yeah, there's there's actually quite a bit more Western states rookies on the men's field than the women's field. The women's field had a lot more experience uh this year around. Where there's there's like ten guys uh in this like quote unquote elite field that have either they're all new to Western states, and then about half have raced a hundred before. And then there's four that I've written down that are hundred mile debuts. Oh, for uh Tomas Garden, Francesco Poopy, Trayson Knopp, and Jesh Run Small for all the the hundred mile debuts, which yeah, I feel like Jesh is gonna be I I I feel like he's gonna be like a quiet, lurking in the shadows kind of guy.

SPEAKER_02 41:07

I have Jesh in top ten for sure.

SPEAKER_05 41:10

Yeah, me too. His gorge run was really good. It was really impressive. And then he's like thrown that straight into some nice looking training over in Flagstaff. It was he he was the one he had a monster A1 loop uh a couple weeks ago where I think it was the fastest A1 loop on the year, just ahead of Graham Blanks, who just ran 1249 for 5k.

SPEAKER_07 41:37

How much do you think that matters though?

SPEAKER_05 41:38

I don't know. Like I just know it matters to me because of how much Jim ran when he was putting his stuff up on Strava. Um speaking of I I didn't realize the year Jim broke the course record and ran 1409, the previous the last race he did before that was Project Carbon X.

SPEAKER_08 41:58

Carbon X.

SPEAKER_05 41:58

Like the road 100K. He did that at the beginning of May. Damn. And then end of June 1409. Wow. Wow.

SPEAKER_01 42:06

Are you sure he didn't do a 10K in Flagstaff? Because there was like three or four years in a row that his tune-up race for Western states was a 10K like two weeks out. Oh, really? It wasn't an ultra sign-up. Okay, yeah, it wouldn't have been an ultra sign-up. Wow.

SPEAKER_05 42:18

I just totally forgot that it was a 100k American world record attempt straight into Western states. What has Jess's overall volume been? Pretty high with a lot of you know canyon time, like the standard flag staff training block. Looked like he went on a lot of runs with Dan. And like he was putting in not just running in the canyons, but then like throwing in efforts.

SPEAKER_01 42:42

I think of our younger crew, and again, this is where we we kind of the old guard, new guard, like Francesco's actually in his mid thirties. Like Jesh is actually of a youthful age. Jesh is 27, 28, something like that. Like, I think of that crew, he has the most experience on big stages doing like really solid work. And I I think that he could be a contender in a in a way that, like, you know, I guess we're talking about him right now, but kind of like Vincent, like he's he's flying a little bit under the radar. Um Jesh, like he studied this course. He's gotten to be here the last couple of years pacing Terek's runners either to victories or you know, great performances. And he's he's someone that I do think is gonna surprise a lot of people when I think about who is going to have the fastest Western States debut. Like Jesh is high up there for with me. It's kind of a battle between the four runners, Zach Miller, Jashran Small, Will Murray, and Francesco Pupi. But I I kind of like the odds that Jesh has.

SPEAKER_05 43:55

It seems like with Jehovah the races that Jesh has Excelled in this being a cooler year would play into his advantage. Um, at least as of right now for a debut Western states.

SPEAKER_07 44:09

I'd agree. Yeah. I think he and a lot of these runners, honestly, like I don't know, we we like often try to classify people as like mountain runner versus you know flat and fast runner, like rolling type runner. And I think I think a lot of these runners do well in every style of race. So they're just all good at running. Yeah, they're all just they're good at running, and it just shows that like there is not like one you know, there's no like way to like pigeonhole someone if if they wanted if they're good and they're committed, like you can kind of like morph into any type of ultra runner you want to be.

SPEAKER_02 44:48

What about like 24-hour time trial on a track, though? Does that translate to Western states?

SPEAKER_05 44:54

Or does like being good at Western states translate to 24 hours on a track? I think it goes that way. Like I think if Jim decided he was gonna go take a crack at 24 hours on a track, I'd be like, yeah, dude, yours.

SPEAKER_07 45:06

Yeah, but do you feel like someone like Jeff could train to be really good at that?

SPEAKER_05 45:12

I don't think he'd want to.

SPEAKER_07 45:13

Maybe that's just I don't know.

SPEAKER_01 45:15

He was so fired up about Javelina and the training for that that I think like he could be keen on it. But I I I see your point, Rod. I do think that uh in the same way that it's like it's misguided for me to count Killian out because Killian said that his knee's only bothering him on faster flat running. Like this is not faster flat running. This is still 19,000 feet of climbing and 22,000 feet of descending. It's also like misguided to say, like, oh, this isn't a mountain runners course or this isn't a like fast runners course. Like, I think uh someone with you know the like the chops of Jordan Bramblett or like faster, just objectively uh speedier runners can still perform super well here. Um, what we've seen in the past is like runners need to also have trail chops because it's not California carpet until you know after the river.

SPEAKER_07 46:11

Yeah, I think this race goes more that way, where it's like the the road style runner, the the you know, the like marathoner has more trouble converting over to it than like the mountain runner does converting to like the actual like runnable stuff.

SPEAKER_05 46:26

Yeah, because you do all the mountain stuff first, and like the road runners oftentimes just get so chewed up that then it does then it's not fast anymore. And and then for the mountain runners, it's like well, we get to go through the mountains, and then by the time we get to the rentable stuff, it's not that fast. Yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_02 46:42

What's the pace rod?

SPEAKER_05 46:44

For course record?

SPEAKER_04 46:46

Oh, it's probably like eight minutes.

SPEAKER_01 46:47

Uh eight eight oh nine or eight. Yeah, it was something like that. I remember you saying it. I thought, um 815, maybe pace, yeah. So like, you know, the mountain runner is not looking at that, being too intimidated.

unknown 47:02

Exactly.

SPEAKER_01 47:03

And maybe the roadrunner is thinking uh 14 hours.

SPEAKER_05 47:07

14 hours flat for 100 miles is 824 pace.

SPEAKER_07 47:09

824 pace, yeah.

SPEAKER_05 47:11

Yeah, I can run a mile in 824.

SPEAKER_07 47:13

But then it's like it's funny because like Robinson flat to dusty corners. Like last year the move was made running sub six pace. Yeah. So you definitely like need the wheels, and that's kind of thing. Like racing like requires brakes, right? And you need to be able to like sustain that type of pace if you're trying to make a break from a group like this talentated or something like that. Um or like it happens on a climb. Okay, that's a good question. Where's the break gonna be made? El Dorado.

SPEAKER_08 47:49

And when you say break, how many people are in this break?

SPEAKER_07 47:54

Let's say Okay, so I I bet there's gonna be like 15 runners coming into Robinson Flat within five minutes, three minutes.

SPEAKER_01 48:02

Yeah, yeah. I'll probably say three. I would say three or less, yeah. That'll be my over-under.

SPEAKER_07 48:07

Let's say like when when that group like actually splits and there's a queer three, four people or something.

SPEAKER_05 48:16

Yeah, so I think we have like a podium-ish split by Michigan Bluff.

SPEAKER_01 48:22

I think before that. Uh I I would put it more towards swinging bridge um and the climb up to the first canyon. Yeah.

SPEAKER_08 48:30

Well, I'm up to Devil's Thumb. I guess let me ask a question back. For how long have actually it's for you and you two, because you guys have both raced at the top of this field before, for how long have you guys internalized the fact that the race is over by Forest Hill? If you want to be at the very, very front? Because if if that's an if if that truly is a new thing for elite runners to internalize, I would expect this year we'll see more people than ever still there at Forest Hill. Like very much.

SPEAKER_01 48:56

No, I'm thinking about my year where I took a big swing in 2023, and you're totally spot on. The the break happened at Robinson Flat. I mean, Tom Evans put a gap on Tyler, Dan, Anthony, and myself on that downhill stretch. We didn't even like there was no sign of him at Dusty Corners, like last chance. So I do think that's maybe the best place to put a gap on if you're confident in your ability to run the course. And like when I when I think again about experience, like you know, Jeff effectively, I think he said he put like 160, 170 miles on the course uh during their training camp. Like there are runners who know the course really well and know what they're capable of on every like segment. So if I am one of those runners, I'm thinking that the the opportunity to make the move is after Robinson Flat and just go that 5% more. If that 5% more is the difference between 550 and 537, and that's comfortable, it's enough to lose contact.

SPEAKER_07 50:05

Yeah, I feel like maybe up until this year, I feel like Robinson Flat has always been that spot where people kind of question what they should do. Because it is like this opportunity to really let go. You're still feeling good. You just saw your crew, you're hyped. You're like, I I could rip this this road essentially at 5 30 pace and be like, feel like totally fine, you know. But it's like, should I do that? Am I actually like holding, like, am are my quads hook hurting more by holding back more? Also, so there's like all these like kind of questions going on in your head. And I think I think like it's kind of turned into the spot that has shown that breaks can be made and groups can form based on like how people want to approach it. And yeah, I could see that happening again this year.

SPEAKER_05 50:58

I could see Francesco just absolutely ripping it after Robinson Platt. Like that seems like his perfect gradient to just float at 530 pace.

SPEAKER_07 51:07

Same with Hans though. Hans did it last year. Yeah. And then like pulled back quite a bit.

SPEAKER_08 51:12

Um but I guess like what what if if we if we're watching the live stream on Saturday, what yeah, what pace are is the front of the pack gonna be on at Robinson Flat?

SPEAKER_05 51:24

I forget. Well, what's it what's the standard Robinson flat split?

SPEAKER_08 51:28

Are they on 1345 pace there? Yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_05 51:31

Like four hours?

SPEAKER_06 51:32

Is it four hours is about?

SPEAKER_01 51:34

Or wait, no, four would be and how many, and then also no, because I think the snow year we were like 439, and that was slow through there. So I think it's I think it's I'm gonna put enough splits.

SPEAKER_05 51:46

Yeah, I'm finding Robinson splits. I want to see. Thank you, Travis Long Car.

SPEAKER_07 51:49

30 miles at four hours is eight minute.

SPEAKER_05 51:52

Cal Caleb was four eighteen at Robinson Flat last year. Like everyone was like 418 to 420 last year.

SPEAKER_01 52:00

I think that's about right. And I I think we'll see maybe 415, like 412 to 418.

SPEAKER_05 52:07

Yeah, I don't think before Robinson Flat is where we see a ton of time get taken off. Because it started getting taken off in chunks like Caleb and Chris from Robinson Flat down to about the river. And then they started, then Caleb and well, I guess too, they all started to bleed it back.

SPEAKER_01 52:21

So Rob kind of a like uh insinuated this, but like Robinson Flat is still the safe zone. Like if if that's a like something that can be understood, like you come into Robinson Flat, you want to be in contact, you want to be within a couple minutes. But I think it's understood that it's like okay to be a couple minutes back there.

SPEAKER_00 52:43

And I don't know if that's actually true.

SPEAKER_01 52:46

Um, I think I think if you are not uh pushing it there and like at least have sight on the leader or are the leader, I think you're you're missing a pretty huge advantage. And you know, that was that was where Caleb kind of pushed away from Chris last year, right?

SPEAKER_08 53:03

I'm just assuming that every single move has to be covered in the first uh 100k.

SPEAKER_01 53:07

But there's like a snake of humans based on the trail. All the way, pretty much there's a snake until Duncan Canyon. And from Duncan Canyon on, the hill is hard enough coming out of the creek that like little gaps form.

SPEAKER_08 53:24

Even if you're trying to cover.

SPEAKER_04 53:25

Yeah.

SPEAKER_07 53:27

Yeah. I think you can't assume I I think that's just it. You can't assume you're gonna get the time back anymore.

SPEAKER_01 53:34

Yeah. I think I think you're not saying three minutes out of Robinson Plat.

SPEAKER_05 53:39

Yeah. Well, we've seen a lot of times in the last in recent years on both the men's and women's sides where the person leading was the one throwing down the fastest splits from like Forest Hill to the finish. How do you catch up to that?

SPEAKER_07 53:53

Yeah. Like there's an a lot a lot of opportunity. I mean, unless like someone is super blown up, but there aren't like big climbs after the canyons to make up big deficits anymore. So yeah, you could be running like a little bit better than someone, but to close to close a gap that it like all of a sudden became 10 minutes in the canyons because they made a huge move takes it takes the other person hurting a lot in order to do that.

SPEAKER_01 54:23

Yeah, and if we look at the final 20 miles last year, Killian was feeling good. Killian did close a pretty significant gap, but it wasn't that he closed 12 minutes on Chris and uh Caleb. He put 12 minutes on Jeff, who was hurting. He probably closed four minutes on Chris Meyer and Caleb. Um, so like the the save your legs for late in the race, there's not enough race left after the river to like really have that much of an impact.

SPEAKER_07 54:58

Um I your one bet is like they have to sit in an aid station for a while. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 55:05

But I don't think bet today.

SPEAKER_07 55:08

Exactly. Yeah. Because I I just don't think like the running splits are going to like are going to be that significant. Like if one person's running well, that's 8.30 pace after the river. If one person's not running well, that's like 10-minute pace, right? You have 20 miles to make up, a minute 30 per mile. So I don't know.

SPEAKER_01 55:29

You can hemorrhage that. No, no. Maybe no, I I think what you did was wait, you you can hemorrhage that time by running 10-minute pace, yeah, but the people in front of you aren't necessarily. And like I that year in 2023, Anthony and I were together at Green Gate, Green Gate, he beat me by 40 minutes. I hemorrhaged two minutes a mile for the final 20 miles.

SPEAKER_04 55:53

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 55:53

But he didn't gain on Tyler or Exactly. Exactly. So like you can you can run your legs off and run 10-minute pace. Most folks are still going to be able to run somewhere between 8 and 8.30, and it's not enough. If I'm Jim, any move that's made between uh Duncan Canyon and Dusty Corners, I'm matching. If I'm anyone else, that's where I'm making my move.

SPEAKER_08 56:17

Raid Research is the official equipment and apparel partner of our 2026 Western States 100 coverage. You've definitely heard me talk about their LF5L Vest launch and their trail tech shorts in the past. And yes, they are both already sold out, but they're gonna be restocked in early July. So make sure that you are subscribed to their mailing list so you don't miss the update. In other news, Raid has many new summer trail products set to release later this week. They are relaunching their first running tee. That's gonna be followed by an ultralight Anorak Rain Shell, women's cargo crop top, and a very exciting women's specific belt in the first half of July. So again, join their mailing list so you don't miss a beat. Other than that, if you are listening to this during the week of TrailCon and in the area, Raid is going to have a booth there. So go say hello. Thanks again to Raid for supporting our coverage this week. Go check out all of their products at raidresearch.com. And if you end up buying anything at checkout, please let them know that the folks at Single Track sent you. I want to get into athlete profiles, and I maybe I should have thrown this one into the mix for storylines, but there's probably a lot of people in the audience that are wondering how we think about Killian Jornett's position heading into this race. He's been pretty public about injury concerns. He's been Strava Dark since Zagama. Zagama was not a great race performance for him.

SPEAKER_01 57:39

He might have been for his spiritual cup, though. It did sound like he just like soaked it in and possibly.

SPEAKER_08 57:44

I mean, had a different experience. Starting with starting with you, Jeff, how are you are you concerned for Killian at all heading into Western States?

SPEAKER_01 57:53

If we're talking Killian and Jim, Killian is the runner I'm saying is like going to be beat by the new guard. Jim, I don't think is on this course. And um I still think Killian's gonna be kind of right in the mix, top five, top six. I don't think he's gonna be uh on the podium this year. And that's not because he's like I don't think I don't think it's his injury. I think it's literally other uh runners hungrier and wanting it more who don't have the additional life stressors that Killian has. And like when it comes down to it, like hearing that he got better sleep on uh his states of elevation project really like illuminates like how hard it is to raise two kids and like the sleep he's getting at home. So like the reason I don't have Killian up at the top, I still think he's gonna probably break the course record. But I um I think he's gonna be minutes behind Jim, Jeff, Hans, that that fourth person, fifth person, I'm gonna take a couple minutes to consider consider it.

SPEAKER_05 59:03

Do you think we'll have like five people under the old course record? I think we'll have close to it, yeah.

SPEAKER_08 59:09

Let's go down the line with me. What do you think? What do you think?

SPEAKER_07 59:11

About Killian. Um, okay. I'll just start by saying I think if I was as fit as I was ever gonna be, I think I would show up to Zagama and probably get 50th place and come to Western States and have a chance to win.

SPEAKER_05 59:26

So that's a good point.

SPEAKER_07 59:28

I wouldn't necessarily correlate.

SPEAKER_00 59:30

Fully agree with that one.

SPEAKER_07 59:31

Yeah, yeah, I wouldn't necessarily correlate the two. Um and let's be not that Killing would do this, but let's be real. He's he's a gamer. Like, why would you not show up on a show and like totally sandbag yourself and make people believe you're not gonna do well?

SPEAKER_08 59:47

Francesco said he's not elite.

SPEAKER_07 59:50

Exactly, you know? Like you yeah, get all that pressure off your chest. You know, the more you say it out loud, the less pressure it probably feels, too. Um and I do think he's driven. Like the whole reason he's here is because he's very dissatisfied with getting third last year. He that's like why is he why is he even here right now if he doesn't think he can win?

SPEAKER_01 1:00:12

We'll see him back next year when he gets fifth this year.

SPEAKER_07 1:00:16

Yeah, we'll keep seeing him back, I guess. Um I don't know. And yeah, I think I think he is he wants to race Jim as much as Jim wants to race him, and they're both they're both such gamers. Like I'm not I I can't see a world where he doesn't match Jim stride for stride. And it's freaking Killian. He's gonna I I he's he's not just gonna like crater, you know. Like if anything, he drops out because his knee is just completely explodes. And I think that's more the question. Um but it seems like it's holding up for him.

SPEAKER_05 1:00:56

Yeah, and kind of going back to the like not running with a pacer because you're like, you've already won it, like you gotta win it in your you know, your own style, your new style. I feel like you know, if Jim run if Jim wins this race and then goes and runs UTMB, Killian can't go and run UTMB without a Western States in his legs if he's gonna race in there too. So like they've gotta like this is like this is taking the no pacer style to like a whole new thing. Like, if I'm gonna win UTMB, I gotta also win Western states because that's how someone else is trying to do it this year. And like Yeah.

SPEAKER_07 1:01:35

Is it just a battle of the goat title?

SPEAKER_05 1:01:37

Pretty that's what I'm kind of feeling.

SPEAKER_01 1:01:39

I think the gym it is, to be clear. Like he explicitly said that. Yeah, like criteria last time. It's criteria, yeah. Like he's uh that's Rod.

SPEAKER_07 1:01:47

No.

SPEAKER_01 1:01:47

Oh, it's like basically counting Western states and UTMB wins, and whoever has the most of those two collective wins is the goat. And so undeniably, uh Ann Tracen with 13 Western states wins is the goat, but then he's like he knows exactly where everyone's like Francois has this many, Killian is this many, I have this many. Do you guys agree with that? Scott has this many. I liked it.

SPEAKER_07 1:02:13

I was like, dude, you yeah. Wait a while.

SPEAKER_01 1:02:16

What do you think?

SPEAKER_07 1:02:17

Man, I I feel like I'm just being influenced, you know. Like, I don't know what I actually believe. Like, I guess I gotta get back, I gotta do the double down. Yeah. Um to me, those two races are the most important races in the sport.

SPEAKER_05 1:02:31

So I get it, but you're like from a like a Hall of Fame career sort of thing. It's like, did you win these races at these times?

SPEAKER_07 1:02:38

So yeah, it's kind of like like how many NBA championships do you have?

SPEAKER_05 1:02:42

Yeah, that's that's definitely how Jim saw it. So that's why I'm not really worried about Killian's knee. Also, he ran Green Gate to the finish on Monday. Um, and it it it was it was nice. It was great. It was like an eight-minute pace.

SPEAKER_01 1:02:55

Yeah, yeah, that's good. That's what you want.

SPEAKER_05 1:02:57

I he ran the broken arrow course um the day of third to 23k because he was spectating uh spectating some of the normal athletes, and you you you could see him in the background on the live stream at the very top of the mountain. Uh his stride book. Okay, great. And then he came down, he had a six-minute mile down the down the fire road here. He looked fine, he was full long sleeve tights. I was like, dude, dude, you're good to go. Yeah.

SPEAKER_08 1:03:23

Is it a thing for these athletes to leak contradictory information? Like, my knee is in terrible shape. But then, like in the field, you see Killian just like prancing downhill.

SPEAKER_05 1:03:33

Dude, that's the PR. That's the PR move right there. Killian's PR team is like, we gotta, we gotta push the knee.

SPEAKER_08 1:03:41

Only that continues the Kyak.

unknown 1:03:43

Yeah.

SPEAKER_07 1:03:44

I mean, it starts with going Strava Dark, and then you start lying about your health.

SPEAKER_05 1:03:48

You can make you can make any narrative you want. Yeah, exactly. Like Jim's knee has actually been fine this whole time. He could have run Black Canyon or Kianti, but like this this increases the chance of winning just to keep the mystery going.

SPEAKER_01 1:04:03

So I do think going back to 2024, like Rod, you kind of showed that that gap is closing to Jim, to the goats, like that a lot of the rest of the field is figuring things out more, be that high carb, be that hydration, cooling, or even training. My thought lies in it. Sounds like Jim's pretty healthy. If he's healthy and fit, I don't know if anyone can beat him. If Killian is not at his 90%, 95%, I do think that that margin is getting tighter. And these other runners are showing not only flashes of excellence, but continued streaks of excellence. And two years ago, we were looking at Francesco Poopy and kind of like, oh yeah, like, you know, 2019, he went toe to toe with Jam at Worlds, but like, is he really all that? And then we watched him at Canyons and it was like, oof, yeah. He's like all that in a bag of chips, and then winning CCC. And, you know, he's he's proven that he's like truly a contender. I think, I think Hans record in the last year is undeniable. And like, as far as power rankings go, Hans is super high for me because he's shown that he like has started to hone that mental headspace where when he shows up, like the plan is to win, and that's the language he's speaking.

SPEAKER_08 1:05:30

Um He seemed he came in the studio a couple days, he seemed very at ease for how young he is in the sport and what his expectations are and his intentions. We've seen a bunch of people come through the studio this week. He seemed remarkably at ease.

SPEAKER_01 1:05:46

They're putting tryptophan in that Tony's pizza.

SPEAKER_05 1:05:49

Just a turkey. So last year he ran, what was it just under 16 hours? Because he faded pretty bad after the river. It was 1606. So he can. Can he just year after year? I mean, I know that wasn't indicative of his fitness because not a well-executed race, but like in terms of just the pace and what you need to do, can he one year later go over two hours faster?

SPEAKER_01 1:06:14

Yeah. I think runners can do that. You can do that. I think so. I mean, like, if we're talking about it, he was a minute per mile slower than Jeff McGavro last year. You know, a minute per mile slower than Killian last year. Like, that's a lot over a hundred miles.

SPEAKER_05 1:06:26

But Yes, that's like such a deal.

SPEAKER_01 1:06:28

He's also saying he's in 1345 shape.

SPEAKER_05 1:06:31

And like he almost needs to pretend he needs to like erase last year from his mind then.

SPEAKER_07 1:06:37

Yeah. I think I went 1611 in 2023.

SPEAKER_08 1:06:41

And then 1424.

SPEAKER_07 1:06:43

Yeah. I don't think I don't think that I I wouldn't think too much about the gap there. I think it was poorly executed. Um I yeah, I I mean I Hans is Hans is just such a great dude. And I think that like carries him really far too. Like I I don't think he sees the L's as L's at all, you know? And he's like still has the same positive attitude. And I think those are the things that really like get you far and keep you hungry. And um he's doing it for the right reasons. He's definitely driven. I just like it's still in my eyes an experienced game, and I don't think he's been in like stack fields that much, to be honest. Um, versus like Poopy, first Western states, but he's raced at the highest level for a really seven years a long time.

SPEAKER_04 1:07:36

Yeah.

SPEAKER_05 1:07:36

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, yeah, there's and there's still I mean, there's a handful of people that we haven't really dove into that feels like they have all the tools to race. I mean, what about what about like Hayden Hawks?

SPEAKER_08 1:07:51

Yeah, and Peterman. I mean, let's let's do it. Let's let's each pick one person, athlete profiles. Like, is it Hayden Hawks?

SPEAKER_05 1:07:56

I mean, Hayden it it really did feel like Yeah, I mean, of course Hayden wanted to win Canyons, but it didn't seem like that was the A goal. It seemed like the goal was to go in and get a ticket, you know, watching um Hans put up a sweet uh race vlog because he was crewing for Hayden. And like Hayden was so relaxed and just like nonchalant the whole time. Like they're like, Oh, you're you know, you're five minutes out of second or third. And he's like, Oh yeah, that's okay. Like this sec this section here, this section here is good for me. I'll and then like the next like spot that Hans cuts to, Hayden and Zach are like right together, and like Hayden brings the gaps. And then there's been a couple training blogs of Hayden that have come out uh since Canyons, and it just I don't know, he's got this kind of swagger to his to his like demeanor where it's like, oh Hayden might be like pretty healthy and pretty fit right now. And and when he does that, he's very good at winning.

SPEAKER_08 1:08:59

Is it now or never for Hayden? That's the question for me.

SPEAKER_05 1:09:04

I don't think it's now or never, but I think it's it's just simply like now. Like not now or never, it's just like it's now.

SPEAKER_01 1:09:13

Is it now or never for Jim?

SPEAKER_08 1:09:14

Like, we're gonna still see broadly speaking. For me, uh I think we get one more year of this guard. And it's it's like uh it's like when Michael Jordan, if you watch The Last Dance, it's like when Michael couldn't get through Detroit, Jordan Rolls, and like they got him in the 90 finals, and then he had to go to the gym and wait, lift weights a bunch more, and then the next year he comes back and starts his string. I think like we get one more year of like Zach, Jim, Hayden, Killian. States or in general? I think it's states, and then I think we see a reign of like Hans. I do, I do, I do strongly believe Hans is the future.

SPEAKER_05 1:09:51

Do you think there's an overlap?

SPEAKER_08 1:09:52

So do you think there's an overlap in the I think we're I think we're I think we're in the liminal period. I think this is like the transitory phase of things.

SPEAKER_01 1:10:01

Adam and Jeff are both like 32, though. So they are like this middle stepping point.

SPEAKER_08 1:10:07

I guess it comes down to like training age and like number of attempts at Western and stuff like that, too. Like I in some ways I still also see Adam and Jeff as like on the younger side of things.

SPEAKER_05 1:10:17

Yeah, I'm I'm just I'm not convinced yet that we see like the next gym in terms of dominance on this course while Jim is still running. Like, I don't know, in my mind, I think it was like Scott. And then there was a long time of people being pretty good for a couple years at States, and then now Jim. I think we see almost that same amount of time before before another one.

SPEAKER_01 1:10:40

Be sick if we did, though. I mean, I'd be really excited if we saw Tomas Cardan or Francesco or like someone actually just beat Jim outright, like both running as hard as they could. And for quite a while I thought we were gonna see that with Francesco, but I think the the only thing that has uh kind of wavered my my confidence in that is is the string of injuries he's had this this spring. He's had some pretty bad luck.

SPEAKER_04 1:11:09

Alright, so it's Hayden for Brett.

SPEAKER_08 1:11:13

What was the question again? Just like someone you're excited to follow.

SPEAKER_05 1:11:17

I mean, for I think for yeah, like another person who could yeah, another person who's got the chops to win this race.

SPEAKER_07 1:11:22

Zach Miller.

SPEAKER_05 1:11:23

Zach's my goat. Yeah.

SPEAKER_07 1:11:24

I mean, he was your mentor. He was my mentor, yeah. And I think to this day, no one turns themselves inside out like Zach does. So and the cooler year is favoring him. He's definitely 100% he's gonna be at the front or with the front at Forest Hill.

SPEAKER_04 1:11:42

He's someone who's not going to give anyone an answer.

SPEAKER_07 1:11:45

Yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_05 1:11:46

So then we'll see what happens. But yeah, I think the only reason there was any space between him and Adam at Canyons was just because it had been so long since Zach had a race rep like that. Now the Canyons is pretty fresh in the mind. Yeah. Okay.

SPEAKER_07 1:12:01

Yeah, it's a great point. I think there is like there sh as there should be, there should be a recency bias around you winning or like doing well, right? Like you remember what it feels like to do that. You remember what you have to do to do that. And I think that's why Canyons is such a good feeder into Western states.

SPEAKER_01 1:12:18

Yeah, I do think before that, you know, his hard rock and his world champs like were not his his top performances, and those are both courses I would say suit him better than Western states, but that's just an observation.

SPEAKER_08 1:12:34

Is there enough time and space on this course for Zach to use that turning himself inside out advantage to his favorite Western states? Is this a long enough race? I I think my only concern is is this a long enough race for Zach to do that?

SPEAKER_05 1:12:49

I think if it was 50 miles, it would be long enough.

SPEAKER_07 1:12:52

Yeah. Definitely. I mean, I think there's enough carnage that can happen. Is he fast enough for Western states? 100%, right?

SPEAKER_05 1:13:00

Hawks vs. Miller. Yeah, dude. Like Zach's thrown down. I mean, yeah, we we look at his the last few years of his career as being a mountain athlete, but like he started he got a big break at JFK, threw that down into Lake Sonoma. But why was he worried?

SPEAKER_08 1:13:15

He he's been openly worried that he's whether he's fast enough for the sport now. He's written like blog posts about this.

SPEAKER_05 1:13:24

I feel like Canyons flipped that narrative in his mind.

SPEAKER_07 1:13:27

Okay.

SPEAKER_05 1:13:28

That was the validation he perhaps needed.

SPEAKER_07 1:13:30

Yeah. Yeah, he's had injury, you know. He's just had a lot of moments where he thought he was he had to stop running, basically, you know.

SPEAKER_05 1:13:42

And he's another one with like I don't know if we said that maybe it was just talking with Zach because he was just in here. Like there's a lot of veterans here who've got this on and off like bum knee. Um like like Killian, uh Hayden, Zach, Jim, um, who else hurt their knee? Von Son hurt their knee. Yeah. Um, like a lot of people with cases of the the needles over there.

SPEAKER_08 1:14:12

It's not the ears, it's the mileage.

SPEAKER_05 1:14:15

So it's interesting of like a lot of them play that game of like, oh yeah, I'm really fit, and I'm it's able to complete all the training, but I never really know until race day whether this knee's gonna cooperate the way I need it to. Who is it for you?

SPEAKER_08 1:14:30

Who's your profile?

SPEAKER_01 1:14:31

The yeah, the runner I want to highlight is Will Murray. Um, I think Will Murray is a pretty special case for a couple reasons. I think the the first, his his direction, mentorship, coaching is really exceptional. I think he was feeling fit and ready to pop off last year, and he was stripped from that opportunity. And I think that only drove him more to get back here. He did all the research like to ace the test, and then was told you got to wait an entire another calendar year. In that calendar year, he I think has continued to prove he is really fast at runnable trails, even if those trails are technical. Um, if Western States is anything, it's a runnable race. Uh, you can run all of it. I don't think it's too hilly for Will. I think it's very much in his uh in his wheelhouse. And I kind of see Will Murray in a better suited position than a 2023 or sorry, 2024 Caleb Olsen, where he's got this amazing mentor like Caleb had and Tyler Green, who he can just run on their shoulder and then beat them. But I think those mentors in Jeff McGavro and Adam Peterman are gonna be quite a bit faster than Tyler was and placing higher up. And I I would not be shocked at all to see Will in that top five and flirting with the fastest ever debut for uh for Western States. I think Will can run under course record pace this year. Um, and I want to see it. Uh I've I've been like keen on him for a while, and I think the opportunity to showcase what has like been so close, so much in reach for the last two years is like right there for him.

SPEAKER_05 1:16:27

He also seems like you're pacing him. Yeah, that uh I don't know, I'm terrified. That seems like such a such a student of the sport. Um, yeah, I'm gonna pick him up at Brett's a racer. Brett's a gamer. Brett's a gamer. I'm gonna do force all the river. I mean, drop him, dude.

SPEAKER_00 1:16:45

Did you drop your racer?

SPEAKER_05 1:16:47

Dude, when I got it's like we always hear about pacers getting dropped, but what about me? I I beat Will to the river by five minutes. I outleaned him. Good, good strategy.

SPEAKER_07 1:16:59

He also seems to like to race off the front, right?

SPEAKER_04 1:17:03

Do we see that him taking that strategy?

SPEAKER_05 1:17:07

I'm gonna plead the fifth on that one. No, actually, I actually don't know.

SPEAKER_08 1:17:11

I'm I'm just what if what if, again, going back to our previous debate, what if there is no off the front this year, at least until Fool Rest Hill, because there can't be for anyone else.

SPEAKER_07 1:17:19

Like no one gives any.

SPEAKER_08 1:17:20

It's game over.

SPEAKER_07 1:17:21

So whoever's at the top of the escarpment wins the race.

SPEAKER_01 1:17:25

That'll be I mean. It starts at the starting line. Yeah. Are you in the front row or are you in the second row? Deal with that, Debo.

SPEAKER_05 1:17:34

Yeah. Start starting on the starting on the right side of the start line so that way I can hit a slightly shorter tangent on the first turn. Oh, that's yeah. Who's arm barring? Well, apparently it doesn't matter because Jim's won the Western States 104-mile race every time with all the times he goes and dunks in the water. Yeah. Like, I'm oh, I added on six miles out of Michigan Bluff so I could go down to the river again.

SPEAKER_01 1:17:59

I was tempted to chat about Adam Peterman, who I do think is having a renaissance year and is in really, really great shape. Um, I went pretty all in on Adam last year and chose him as my winner. So I'm not doing that this year in the hopes that by not doing that he actually might end up winning, you know. Bet against the uh the people you you really want to succeed. But I I think the uh the Adam, Will, Jeff dynamic, like if I could join any training group, it's hands down that.

SPEAKER_07 1:18:26

Like that's do you feel like they train too much?

SPEAKER_01 1:18:29

Uh they would train too much for me in my place in life right now. But I don't know if Adam and Will are training what Jeff's training. Um objectively, I would say for me, yes.

SPEAKER_04 1:18:40

Yeah.

SPEAKER_07 1:18:41

It's so it's hard to know. Because like the years Jim also was just drilling the course, right? He was doing massive, massive week weeks, like 150, 160. Yeah, it's it seems like we're definitely it feels like we're in this like totally part of the sport that's going back.

SPEAKER_01 1:18:58

High mileage resurgence.

SPEAKER_07 1:19:00

Yeah, cut the heat suits, no one's doing heat suits anymore. I know no more junk miles, no accessory stuff.

SPEAKER_05 1:19:05

I haven't seen I haven't seen a single reel about like paint your suits on a bike this year. Instead, I've seen reels of like, I just clocked my 19th seven-hour run this week.

SPEAKER_07 1:19:17

The sport's so funny. It's all fluctuations in what is like the best intervention now.

SPEAKER_08 1:19:24

No one asked. My guy, my profile is Anthony Costales.

SPEAKER_05 1:19:28

We were leaving him for you.

SPEAKER_08 1:19:30

Thank you.

SPEAKER_05 1:19:31

Do you have uh any beta on him?

SPEAKER_08 1:19:34

He's healthy. And I think he's he's one he's a gamer and he's he's old school in the sense that if he's on the start line, you know he's there to win. And I think I think I mean he just ran 724 at Black Canyon. Hans ran 720.

SPEAKER_01 1:19:51

724 on what he said was like he thought it was a bad day.

SPEAKER_08 1:19:55

He made a lot of mistakes early.

SPEAKER_01 1:19:56

Rough patch.

SPEAKER_08 1:19:57

Huge rough patch. Um Anthony is a mega talent. He's podium here before, has the wheels.

SPEAKER_05 1:20:06

He's uh I see it. He's got such a big bone to pick with this. I mean, I I mean, he's he's pissed about that third place at 2023. He's like, I beat Tom at Black Canyon, right? And then and then I just I made a mistake and I gave him room here and I and it didn't come back. And like, you know, he's been thinking about that for three years.

SPEAKER_01 1:20:27

Just for the couple people who care, is he the fastest marathon PR on this field? He's a 213 marathon.

SPEAKER_05 1:20:35

In the Skechers Go Meb pre-super shoes. Like I think that is, isn't it? Yeah, I think that is.

SPEAKER_01 1:20:40

I think he is the fastest marathon in this field. Yeah, um, despite you know, Hans not saying what he thinks he can actually run.

SPEAKER_07 1:20:47

But who's the fastest Miler in this field?

SPEAKER_01 1:20:50

Uh is it Is Ben Blankenship's brother running? I saw Blinkenship a last name on the Starbucks. Blankenship butt Blankenship.

SPEAKER_05 1:20:58

Is the fastest I I mean Adam Peterman, Jim Walmsley, and Hayden Hawks have scary identical track PRs. Yeah, it is weird. Like they're like 1500, 3K, 5K, even Adam and Jim Steeple PRs. They're like all almost identical. All right.

SPEAKER_08 1:21:16

Before before we get to picks, is there anything else you guys want to just relay to the audience? Any any points, any themes, any topics?

SPEAKER_01 1:21:24

I have a question for you guys. Okay. I think it's fair to say last year David Roche put a ton of eyeballs on this race. Um, in the lead up to the race and the actual like live stream itself. And I think he watching the live stream like had this fan favoritism like behind him. I might not have been paying attention, but like enlighten me, who is who is the person, who is the fan favorite this year, who has been building the hype and actually getting serious momentum behind them?

SPEAKER_05 1:21:57

I think it's Hans. Hans. I think his Hans. His vlogging and the bit the content that he's made all year. It's so good.

SPEAKER_01 1:22:06

And I haven't watched any of it and I'm already on the bandwagon.

SPEAKER_05 1:22:08

Yeah, it's it's so good. And when you damn it, when you uh any Western states post around the men's race on Instagram, you go to the comments, there's the most I'm betting on Hans, like fans of Hans. Like it doesn't, it feels like Hans is 50%, and then the other half is everyone else. Wow.

SPEAKER_08 1:22:28

It's remarkable how much time he's he invests into content while still being an amazing runner getting in. It's he's doing double time, it's impressive.

SPEAKER_07 1:22:35

He probably has a guy, right? Yeah, he does.

SPEAKER_08 1:22:37

I think he does a lot of it himself too. Yeah.

SPEAKER_05 1:22:40

That's cool.

SPEAKER_07 1:22:40

I feel like Hans, and then I mean I think I'm gonna say Hiroki Kai for GoProing the whole thing last year. Yeah, that was pretty safe.

SPEAKER_05 1:22:49

That's a pretty safe answer. His his post rate or his Western States video was so good. Um, yeah, like a lot of a lot of Japanese, but like you can link it in the show notes.

SPEAKER_01 1:23:00

I take so many bathroom breaks during races, like he's just GoPro in that whole thing.

SPEAKER_05 1:23:05

Yeah. I mean, you can edit it. You have that kind of creative. That's how he built the hype, dude. Yeah. And then I think I think the other person now in this field overall is Molly Seidel.

SPEAKER_04 1:23:18

Yeah. Yeah.

SPEAKER_08 1:23:20

Even though I think it's I don't necessarily, and I think we talked about the women's preview. I don't necessarily think it's gonna be like a quantity of people, but just the right people who are tuning in and being influenced.

SPEAKER_01 1:23:28

Yeah. Justin Grunwald is in this race. Yes. Off of the lottery. Someone we followed his golden ticket watch for the last like four or five years.

SPEAKER_08 1:23:39

Heartbreaking. He's had so many close calls.

SPEAKER_01 1:23:41

Is he gonna get top 10? Is he gonna make it easier for himself going forward? Over under on uh someone not golden ticket.

SPEAKER_08 1:23:49

I guess this year can you can you to to the point about Justin? Can you race tactically for a top 10? I think so.

SPEAKER_05 1:23:57

I think so. I think it's too cold this year.

SPEAKER_08 1:23:59

Ooh, that's a really good point.

SPEAKER_05 1:24:01

I think I think there's not gonna be enough blow ups because of the weather. I think last year we saw it.

SPEAKER_01 1:24:05

Yep.

SPEAKER_05 1:24:06

Um, I think this year, with just how many names we've listed, you would need over half of them to like more than micro fade.

SPEAKER_08 1:24:16

So top 10, because last year's top 10 composition was messed up. It was like after Seth ruling, there was like an hour gap between Seth and Ryan Montgomery. I don't think they have that. Seth and Hans. Seth, yeah, okay. It was a 1409 in 1606.

SPEAKER_06 1:24:31

Nobody in the 15s last year.

SPEAKER_08 1:24:32

No one in the 15s. Not a single person. Insane. So you guys think a tighter top 10 composition? I think so. I think so too.

SPEAKER_05 1:24:38

Yeah. I think we see our fastest top 10.

SPEAKER_01 1:24:41

Yeah, I think uh the names I'd pulled Colton Gale, Zach Garner, Justin Grunwald, who all got in off the lottery. Yeah. Like this is also a good pitch for like Western States versus Hard Rock. If this was Hard Rock and none of these returners, other than the one winner last year or whatever, was invited in, we'd be looking at a lottery that like Justin Zach and Colton would be like the runners that we're fully focusing on. And that they are competitive. That is a great point. Super cool. Like they are they are definitely like most races they go in, they are podiuming.

SPEAKER_04 1:25:18

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 1:25:19

Um, and then you have Western states, and there's almost 30 runners who were willing to say, like, you know, despite not getting in off the lottery list, like we we think these, you know, almost 30 runners will likely be ahead of them. Um, you know, it's it's a compelling argument for why Western States is as exciting as it is, and we haven't even talked about Bronco Billy yet, who's also in the race.

SPEAKER_05 1:25:43

He's got he's got the most Western states finishes of this of this elite field.

SPEAKER_08 1:25:47

I think he has to beat it's like 1813 or 1832 or something like that to beat Steven Moore's 50 plus.

SPEAKER_06 1:25:57

What'd you say? He's gonna have to run faster than 1850 to beat Jim.

SPEAKER_05 1:26:04

So let's see.

SPEAKER_07 1:26:04

Okay, what time do you think 10th goes?

SPEAKER_05 1:26:06

Yeah, because I I just pulled up the fastest top 10, which was two years ago. Chris Myers ran 15-18. That is fast. Yeah, that was a fast top 10. Dude, let's see it entire top 10 under 15 hours. I think I think so.

SPEAKER_08 1:26:22

I'm gonna go entire top ten under 1430.

SPEAKER_05 1:26:25

Oh my god. You've said things that audacious before and it actually be true. Yeah. So like it's a numbers game. Yeah, it's a numbers game. You say it enough times. At least you like Do you think we have 10 under 15? Yeah. 1450.

SPEAKER_00 1:26:40

1450, 1430. No, no, 1429.

SPEAKER_05 1:26:43

1429. Uh uh 1459, 59. I'm going like 1505. Yeah. Yeah. Won't get the full 10. Which is, I mean, that's insane.

SPEAKER_00 1:26:53

Still really fast. Yeah. Like we're we're talking about this year, Scott Jurick being off the top leaderboard. Yeah, like his like he could be his fastest time ever could no longer be top 100.

SPEAKER_04 1:27:05

Yeah, yeah. Absolutely.

SPEAKER_05 1:27:08

Oh yeah, yeah, we are looking at like the 100 fastest times is getting pretty fast. Yeah.

SPEAKER_08 1:27:15

Rod, any final comments pre-Picks?

SPEAKER_04 1:27:19

Anything you want to relay to the audience? This race is gonna be won in aid station transitions.

SPEAKER_05 1:27:30

I think this race is gonna be won not in aid station transitions. Actually, you know, we say no shoe changes in the top ten. No time.

SPEAKER_04 1:27:43

No time.

SPEAKER_05 1:27:44

Maybe someone will have it planned, but they won't do it because they'll realize how catastrophic that would be to spend sixty seconds changing shoes.

SPEAKER_08 1:27:54

I'm gonna mine I'm gonna go uh five guys within a minute of each other. At ALT.

unknown 1:28:02

Wow.

SPEAKER_05 1:28:03

Like the top the top five will be with so deep into the race to be a little bit more than a little bit more than a little bit. Do we see the sprint finish on the track inside the top 10? Inside the top 10, yes. Like a like a like final hunt.

SPEAKER_08 1:28:15

We'll see something close to it at least.

SPEAKER_05 1:28:17

Yeah, like it can't be like someone's two people are on the track at the same time. Well, I'm like, two people entered the track at the same time, somewhere within the top 10. Because like we saw it on the women's side, gosh, probably must have been almost a decade ago.

SPEAKER_08 1:28:31

Claire and Brittany, Caitlin, and uh Camellia.

SPEAKER_07 1:28:34

Okay, here's a question. In a field like this at Western States in 2026, is a top 10 performance career changing?

SPEAKER_05 1:28:43

No. I don't think so either because it's it's still 10th. Yeah, how about five?

unknown 1:28:49

No.

SPEAKER_05 1:28:50

I think five, you're starting to raise some eyebrows. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 1:28:53

I don't know. It depends on where you're coming from. I think top 10, like you are all of a sudden a marketable asset to that brand for the following year at Western States, which a lot of brands would do anything to get. So I would say top 10 is a yes.

SPEAKER_05 1:29:07

Top 10 hasn't has it always been.

SPEAKER_01 1:29:09

Is this like killing and getting 10th place? Is that career changing? No. But is this rambled of King Woodward getting 10th? Like, hell yeah.

SPEAKER_07 1:29:16

Does it give you a contract, I guess, if you're unattached?

SPEAKER_01 1:29:21

I mean, who's unattached?

SPEAKER_08 1:29:24

I actually think a lot of the 30.

SPEAKER_07 1:29:26

I actually wrote this down.

SPEAKER_08 1:29:27

Oh. Well, I mean, for example, you know, Canyon Woodward.

SPEAKER_01 1:29:32

Just went with Patagonia.

SPEAKER_08 1:29:33

Just went with Patagonia. Jordan Bramblett.

SPEAKER_01 1:29:35

It's like Bramblett. I think it does. I think he gets top 10. I think he gets a new contract.

SPEAKER_05 1:29:39

Huge.

SPEAKER_01 1:29:39

Yeah.

SPEAKER_05 1:29:40

Because there's that many people with the bigger.

SPEAKER_01 1:29:42

Is it a contract that means he doesn't have to do anything else? Not necessarily. But yeah.

SPEAKER_04 1:29:47

Yeah.

SPEAKER_05 1:29:47

Yeah. Getting top getting 10th at this race doesn't enable you to all of a sudden be a full-time professional athlete.

SPEAKER_01 1:29:53

But it might enable you to pursue running and actually get to travel the races you really want to do and have like a support staff, a coach, nutritionist, all those things.

SPEAKER_08 1:30:01

It opens doors. You sold me. I think I take that back. I think top 10 does.

SPEAKER_04 1:30:09

I thought there was another element to your question.

SPEAKER_03 1:30:13

Oh, top five. Yeah.

SPEAKER_08 1:30:16

So the same logic.

SPEAKER_04 1:30:17

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 1:30:18

Yeah. I think top five steps you up where it's it's that step up to you are a you can do this full time.

SPEAKER_07 1:30:26

Yeah, if it's a contract year for you, you would get resigned for sure and probably get a nice raise.

SPEAKER_08 1:30:31

Yeah. Remind me, Rod, did you wait? Yeah, he waited. You waited, right?

SPEAKER_07 1:30:36

Yeah.

SPEAKER_08 1:30:36

Can you for people that are watching that maybe are in your position at some point, can you explain the rationale?

SPEAKER_07 1:30:42

Um Yeah, to I mean, to be honest, like I didn't feel like I was giving up anything by choosing to wait. Like I I felt like the TNF door was still open, no matter no matter really what happened at States after my Kenyon's performance. Um maybe that was wrong, but that's like where my mindset was. Um and I felt like there was only more to gr more to gain. Um and yeah, at the end of the day, I had a full-time job too. So even if I wasn't going to sign a contract, it'd still be racing. Um and it yeah, it it was a bet it was a bet too. Like in I f I felt like I was in a good position. I felt like I was in good shape. Um I really felt like top five was in my cards that year. And yeah, so it was definitely some belief in myself.

SPEAKER_05 1:31:46

But yeah, having saving myself for states.

SPEAKER_07 1:31:50

Yeah.

SPEAKER_08 1:31:51

I have I am having a very weird memory coming back to me. I saw you the night before the 2024 States at the Truckee grocery store. I think it was like the shop, right? We were in the checkout aisle together.

SPEAKER_07 1:32:03

I remember that.

SPEAKER_08 1:32:04

And I saw you, and like you said something not cryptic, but like you're like, just wait until tomorrow, something special is gonna happen.

SPEAKER_07 1:32:11

Yeah, I was definitely in a in the most Dgaff mode I've ever been in before a race, which is interesting.

SPEAKER_08 1:32:20

That was sick, yeah. All right, I have one question before picks, actually. Which brand is gonna be most represented on the men's side in the top ten? Because like, for example, sorry, sorry, Rod. Hoka last year didn't didn't hit.

SPEAKER_05 1:32:32

Hoka had a bad day.

SPEAKER_08 1:32:34

But now the depth is deep. None taken, none taken. But now the depth is deep. There's a lot of hope you guys.

SPEAKER_01 1:32:38

Can we list any brand with more than one runner other than Hoka?

SPEAKER_08 1:32:42

Let's see. Okay.

SPEAKER_01 1:32:43

Dan Jones, Dan Jones, and Hoka.

SPEAKER_05 1:32:46

Dan Jones and Chesh. Yeah. Yeah. We got Hiroki Kai and Anthony Cassidy.

SPEAKER_03 1:32:50

Are there two Brooks? Okay, we got two Nike.

SPEAKER_07 1:32:54

Two Nike two T and F.

SPEAKER_03 1:32:56

Two T and F.

SPEAKER_06 1:32:58

Tracen Knop.

SPEAKER_07 1:32:58

Trace and Knop and Zach.

SPEAKER_03 1:33:01

Yeah, there we go.

SPEAKER_06 1:33:02

I know Tracen's legit. Yeah. Race and Tracen. Tomas is with Keep Run. Yep.

SPEAKER_05 1:33:08

Right. Okay. That's just one.

SPEAKER_08 1:33:10

Is Ultra just um Justin and oh, Jacob Banta. Yeah, Jacob Banta.

SPEAKER_01 1:33:15

I was gonna say we haven't talked about Jacob. Okay.

SPEAKER_07 1:33:18

Who's Ryan with these days?

SPEAKER_08 1:33:20

I think he's unattached.

SPEAKER_03 1:33:21

John G on attached, right?

SPEAKER_08 1:33:23

Yeah.

SPEAKER_03 1:33:23

Yeah. I mean, I think with what we know, I think it's a safe bet to say that Hoka gets two in the put top ten.

SPEAKER_08 1:33:34

We would be shooketh if they don't.

SPEAKER_01 1:33:36

Yeah. I think they've put a lot of cards on the table to make sure they do.

SPEAKER_05 1:33:41

Um they've got the potential to get six.

SPEAKER_04 1:33:47

In the top six. In the top six.

SPEAKER_05 1:33:50

Six in the top. Yeah, I mean, ideally, Hoka's thinking we we want to sweep this thing. Like Hoka wants the podium. Yeah. I mean, Hoka could take the top, they could take the top five spots. Okay. That would be a massive bounce back from the.

SPEAKER_01 1:34:01

I don't even think I yeah, I really I have three Hoka in my top five.

SPEAKER_05 1:34:05

I think I do two. Yeah. Brett, let's roll into your picks. Alright, so fifth place, I've got Zach Miller. Oh, wait, I don't have three Hoka in my top five. Fifth place, I've got Zach Miller. Fourth, I've got Anthony Costales. Just for the Yeah, you know, I Anthony's a gamer. I was I was there at Black Canyon. I got to see it. Um it was yeah, it it just seemed like it was it was a great uh confirmation that he's like what do you say? He's like, I'm not dead.

SPEAKER_08 1:34:40

I'm not dead, I'm still here.

SPEAKER_05 1:34:41

Yeah. Third place I got Adam Peterman. Adam A lot of people say, like, well, Adam's when he won states, it wasn't that fast. But I think my my counter argument is Adam ran as fast as he needed to to win, and he did not get pushed any harder.

SPEAKER_08 1:34:58

Sorry, Rod. I would rather run 1513 for the win than 1424 for second.

SPEAKER_05 1:35:04

I don't know if I would. So I got Adam in third, I got Killian in second, and then Jim Walmsley with the win. 1344, because of kind of what we said, how there is going to be much more than just one person laying the pressure on, like, you know, past the river, past ALT. But I think Jim still retains the crown. But he's gonna make it exciting.

SPEAKER_04 1:35:32

I like the Castallis pick.

SPEAKER_08 1:35:34

How about you, Rod?

SPEAKER_07 1:35:36

Fifth, I have Zach Miller. Fourth, Adam Peterman. I think they're gonna run together quite a bit. Um I think Adam pulls away a little bit after ALT.

SPEAKER_04 1:35:51

Third place, I have Killian. Second place I have Francesco. And in first, Jim. You're really gonna believe that too. Yeah. Yeah. I mean there's so many.

SPEAKER_05 1:36:06

There's so many combinations of five where I'm like, that's that's so realistic.

SPEAKER_04 1:36:10

Yeah.

SPEAKER_07 1:36:12

Yeah, in that, I guess like in that top five, I've won rookie. Yeah, you got Francesco and there. Winning time, 1352.

SPEAKER_03 1:36:22

I've got fifth place Will Murray, fourth place Hayden Hawks, third place Hans Troyer, second place Jeff McGavro, first place Jim Walmsley, 1354.

SPEAKER_04 1:36:41

Yeah, that's okay.

SPEAKER_08 1:36:43

And any any any comments you want to add to that?

SPEAKER_05 1:36:46

I think that's a realistic thing. I mean, it's it's solid.

SPEAKER_01 1:36:49

Yeah, I mean the comments are like I it's sound.

SPEAKER_05 1:36:52

Like I do.

SPEAKER_01 1:36:53

I think that the people, like if everyone is prepared for cooling and icing, like the folks who decide to take shortcuts and not do that, I think are gonna pay, even though it's not gonna be as warm. And like I have a ton of confidence in Jeff McGavro because I think he believes in himself as well, and that's like uh something I can get behind. I'm I'm psyched to be pacing him, and I want to face him to a victory, and I can't overcome this gym block in my brain.

SPEAKER_04 1:37:25

But the like I think the you know, a little bit against the like no shoe change or anything.

SPEAKER_01 1:37:35

I think the folks who are like gonna be pretty cool, calm and collected are going to pay off and and do really well. And like I know I'm a fool for not considering Killian or Zach or some of these other amazing runners.

SPEAKER_05 1:37:53

Um we're all fools here.

SPEAKER_01 1:37:54

Yeah, but the five I'm picking are the five I'm picking, and like excited to see how it how it turns out.

SPEAKER_08 1:38:03

In fifth place, I have Jeff McGavro. In fourth place, I have Hans Troyer. In third place, I have Zach Miller. And I love what you said earlier about how there's no one in the sport, at least on the men's side, that turns himself inside out better than Zach. I love that. It's the best way to describe it.

SPEAKER_01 1:38:20

Marian Hogan on the women's side.

SPEAKER_08 1:38:22

Or Tara in some ways too. Yeah. Love that. I love that way to think about it. And then in second, I've got Killian, and in first, I have Jeff or sorry, Jim Walmsley.

SPEAKER_05 1:38:31

Jeff Walmsley.

SPEAKER_08 1:38:32

Jeff Walmsley, Jim Walmsley. And I just want to emphasize with that entire top five, I want to deeply emphasize how how hard fought it is between those five and how deep into the race it extends. Like we're talking beyond ALT.

SPEAKER_07 1:38:46

Like I was gonna say, or follow-up question, is the person who challenges Jim, if anyone does, do they end up in second or do they blow up?

SPEAKER_01 1:38:55

In my mind, they kinda I in my mind that's why Fran's not in my top five.

SPEAKER_05 1:39:00

I think I think they're the one who gets second because they challenge him for much longer than Jim's. Like the same, like you got second because you challenged Jim close enough to the finish. But we built a gap.

SPEAKER_07 1:39:11

Yeah. Is that gap gonna happen in 75 degrees in a field this deep? I think I guess like that's enough, like what is the spread between first and fifth in your top five?

SPEAKER_05 1:39:22

I feel like it's like 15, 20 minutes.

SPEAKER_01 1:39:24

Ooh, I was more toward like seven to nine minutes. Oh, yeah.

SPEAKER_08 1:39:27

So I said 1345, and I also think we'll see the entire top 10 under 1429, and we're gonna see the entire top five under 14 hours. So I think the spread's gonna be like 10 minutes.

SPEAKER_05 1:39:39

I mean, if I say Jim wins in 1344 and the spread's 20 minutes, I mean Zach runs 1404 for fifth.

SPEAKER_08 1:39:45

Yeah. I mean I okay, I believe here's another thing. I believe that there are 30 people on the on the in the men's field who are writing splits for their crews for absolutely under 1409.

SPEAKER_06 1:39:57

Yeah. Yeah, the crew's gotta be. Definitely under 1430, right? Like 1430 is like, oh, this is like a comfortable place to land. Top like five times ever as of two years ago.

SPEAKER_05 1:40:10

Will there be a crew not make it to Robinson Flat in time? Due to traffic. With everyone riding 14 hour splits. Like we're gonna have 50 crews show up at 6 a.m. to Robinson. Let's not speculate.

SPEAKER_08 1:40:27

I've got one more prompt. Really rapid fire. The most underrated person in this field who they aren't necessarily going to shock people, but they could. You, Brett.

SPEAKER_05 1:40:38

I think Jesh run small is one of the most underrated people. Jesh Run big. Jesh run big. Just run large. Trace and Knopp.

SPEAKER_00 1:40:51

Yeah, those are Jesh Run Small was my first answer, and Tracen Knopp was my second answer.

SPEAKER_05 1:40:56

That's okay to agree.

SPEAKER_00 1:40:57

Yeah, I mean, for me it's Jesh.

SPEAKER_05 1:41:00

What about you, Finn? I'm gonna go two, actually.

SPEAKER_08 1:41:04

I think Adam Peterman's the most disrespected Western States champion of the modern era. So I think by definition he's underrated.

SPEAKER_07 1:41:10

Okay, Finn, to that, that is why I'd rather run 1424 than win in 1520. That's fair. Yeah, that's fair. I'd take the W. I'd take the dub. Be the most disrespected champion.

SPEAKER_00 1:41:21

I don't think he's disrespected. Would you rather be the most disagreeable? I truly think he's gonna do amazing things.

SPEAKER_05 1:41:26

Respected second place finisher.

SPEAKER_08 1:41:28

Dude, in the logged. My two stone cold locks for the top 10 are my underdogs. It's Jacob Banta and Kenny Mudboard. Stone cold locks. Stone cold locks for top ten.

SPEAKER_06 1:41:44

And your top 10's running under 1430. Yeah.

SPEAKER_05 1:41:47

My stone cold locks for top 10 are Jim Walmsley and Zach Miller.

SPEAKER_04 1:41:54

That's it. Everyone else? Wow.

SPEAKER_05 1:41:59

Yeah, like I I put I give them a high, a very high percentage shot of top 10.

SPEAKER_08 1:42:05

Guys, this has been amazing. Rod, we can't thank you enough for coming on the pod and stoked to be here. Sharing some hard-earned wisdom to say the least. We really appreciate it. Uh, Jeff, obviously, great to have you back. Can't wait to chat with David Roche tomorrow to kind of conclude our pre-race coverage. And Brad, I mean, right hand man. Appreciate you, man. All right. Thanks for tuning in to our 2026 Western States 100 coverage. This is our fourth year doing it, and we're having the time of our lives. Before we go, I wanted to ask the following from you: if you're motivated to contribute to what we're doing, please consider leaving a detailed rating and review on Apple and Spotify. Leave a comment on any of these episodes on YouTube and support our partners and let them know that we sent you. For example, uh go get one of the new vests from Raid the L F5L, let them know that we sent you at checkout. Same goes for Nord or Precision. Use our discount code in the show notes there. And use the link as well to complete their nutrition planner for your next race. These are the specific actions that truly keep the lights on for us and make this annual pilgrimage to Olympic Valley, this tradition, this great tradition possible. Thanks for considering, and we will see you on the next episode.