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2026 OCC Preview | Analysis, Storylines, Predictions
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Brett Hornig joins me in our Chamonix studio to preview the men's and women's fields at the 2026 OCC, part of the UTMB World Series Finals.
In both fields, we cover top storylines and what to watch for, we answer some listener mail about the race, provide analysis of top contenders, categorize who we see as candidates for the win, for the podium, and the top 10, and we make bold predictions across a number of other fun categories.
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Welcome back to our coverage of the 2026 UTMB World Series Finals. In this episode, I am joined once again by Brett Hornig. This time to preview the men's and women's fuels at OCC. Norda is the footwear partner of our coverage. Their latest shoe model, the 5-5, was worn by Rachel Entriken and route to her course record victory at Cocodona in May, and again by Jimmy Elam for his second place finish at this year's Hard Rock 100. Proven in the field, go check them out at NordaRun.com. Precision Fuel and Hydration is the nutrition partner of our coverage. They have 17 pros lining up across UTMB races next week. Familiar names include Rachel Entriken, Dan Jones, Caleb Olson, Chris Myers, Rachel Drake, Tyler Green, Eli and Tabor Heming. They'll also have eight members of their staff embedded in the crews of these athletes. Go check them out. It's the best sports nutrition on the market, and feel free to use code SingleTrack at checkout for 15% off. RAID Research finally is the equipment and apparel partner of our coverage. They'll be set up at Sanglard Sports through August 29th, demoing many of their 2027 products. And they'll also have current products like their LF5L Vest for sale. Also of note, one of their top athletes, Henriette Albin, is racing UTMB next week in a debut kit of theirs. Go check out everything at raidresearch.com. We are back with our final preview episode ahead of the 2026 UTMB World Series Finals. This is our coverage of the men's and women's fields at OCC. I'm joined again by friend Kylie Brett Hornig, and we were recording maybe an hour or two ago, CCC, and it was it was torrentially downpouring. Now we've got like it's not quite a mist, but it's it's just coming down at a at a quieter effort. Spitting. Spitting. Spitting a little bit.
SPEAKER_00It's spitting.
SPEAKER_02It's it's kind of like a Pacific Northwest rain right now.
SPEAKER_00Oh yeah. I'm giving, I'm getting mad Vancouver vibes from this rain because it's just steadily coming down, but it's not too annoying. It's not too cold. It's not windy. Tolerable.
SPEAKER_02And I'm thinking back to last year, 2025. One of I mean, it to me it might have been OCC might have been the most exciting race of the week. And I've talked about it a bunch, but that final battle at the front of the men's race between Jim Walmsley and Christian Minoggio was one for the ages. Yes. It even it was so good. It even got dillismed, like that famous pass that Jim made on Christian. I encourage everyone to go check that out. Um, and you know, I I don't think it disappoints again this year. I think there's both a compelling feel to the women's side and the men's side. We're gonna go through top storylines. This is a largely North American audience, so the top Americans, men's field breakdown, women's field breakdown are predictions. I mean, Brett, before we get started, how are you doing?
SPEAKER_01I'm doing great.
SPEAKER_00I'm I'm glad that we're recording all these preview episodes today. I'm be honest, I don't love running in the rain.
unknownReally?
SPEAKER_00That's why I live in Ashland. And not Portland. Not Portland. Two different sides of the states. I live in the south. You know, we don't get much rain down there. So I've yeah, just don't do it too much. Yeah. So glad to be in here talking about running with you. Yeah, OCC. This is a yeah, last year's men's OCC finish. Uh, yeah, that was that was really fun because you oftentimes the shorter the race, the later in the race the eventual outcome gets decided. And this one didn't get decided until like the run-in into sham past the final aid station. The pass happened at the final aid station. Yes. Where Jim's like nonchalantly filling bottles, doing stuff, and then Minoggio just runs by a vest, bottles just flopping, just yeah, looking it not yeah. I think Jim was just like what? Right. But then also didn't freak out. Like it's it almost looked like he analyzed it and was like, like counting. Yeah, that's okay. Continues to fill up his bottles, like like he didn't seem threatened at all by the fact that he just lost the lead with what was left in the course. I I think Jim relishes those moments. Like he was like, sweet, now I get to kick down someone for the win, which is what we saw. We saw him just kind of bounding along and then freaking like butt tap. Back tap, back tap, butt tap something. Yeah, on the on the way in. Freaking eats it on the final bridge turn here, just goes sliding into the barriers, and everyone's like, like, that was the knee. There it goes. It's done. Vibram goes out of business, but then he gets back up, grabs a sombrero, celebrates an OCC victory. Really excited. Women's race was um well, it's a little bit shrouded in darkness now, with the winner getting popped for doping. So joyline. Yeah.
SPEAKER_02So meow yeah, it's the the champion, but didn't get to enjoy it, just got robbed of that. And and it's interesting, at all of the UTMB World Series finals, obviously there's an unfortunate history sort of at each of them, but at least in the most recent years, uh these pops have happened at OCC. I think in 2023, it was Scion who got popped after the fact, and Francesco was declared the winner after the fact.
SPEAKER_00But uh I wonder what that is. I wanna does that does that mean there's more doping in the shorter uh well, I mean, there's more more runners in as you go shorter and flatter. And there's also more prize money. There's been more dope positive doping cases there. So then like it I guess in a way it makes sense that OCC is the closest trickle up from that.
SPEAKER_02A lot of these people are racing six, eight, ten, twelve times a year, and uh needing to be ready for that many races, being competitive. That that requires a lot. So yeah, it makes sense to me.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, so that was unfortunate. Hopefully we don't have any of that this year. But um, yeah, we're gonna we've got some uh yeah, interesting dynamics across the fields. We just talked about that with CCC of like people dropping up, dropping down. We do actually have a good amount of that as well this year and in the OCC fields. A storyline that I wanted to bring up, I I think it it happened yesterday, two days ago, was um the course changed again. For the second time. Yeah, so and so they changed in the final miles from like the last 10k of the race is kind of different, basically. Uh the run-in is I think the same nearly as MCC, which I'll be doing, and it it got easier and faster. So that definitely plays into the hands of different athletes. So yeah, when you come into you go through Latour, you go up and over into Argentier. I don't think that's changed at all. But then from the Argentier aid station, you come up and you you stay on the like south side of the valley, and then you cross over onto this lower balcony trail that there's one climb and descent before coming down into Chamonix, but I haven't run the old section, but from what I heard is it was actually pretty heinous and terrible, quite technical, very slow. This other section, basically a wide fire road with almost no technicality, and it's super fast and absolutely plays into the hands of the runners.
SPEAKER_02And I'd be curious to get your thoughts here, too. I I think one of the issues that OCC has struggled with for much of this decade. And I a great example is to go look at Robbie Simpson's results. He's now raced OCC, I think, each of the last five years, and his times are wildly different, not because he's really changed, but because the course has changed so much. There's been such a lack of standardization. And I think when you're consider when you're considering this as a World Series final, like this is the de facto championship on most years for the mountain trail 50k distance. I think even if you're a fan of like racing more than time trialing and having those reference points, I think it's it's really important for the course and the distance to be locked in well before the events of the athletes can prepare. Like these are these are maybe to some people, especially some people that are more steeped in like the longer distances, subtle changes, but it matters a ton, I think.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I think from a prep standpoint, it definitely does matter a little bit. But I I think a lot of this change comes from landowner issues. A lot of it's out of control for sure.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. But there's a big difference between a 50K and a 60k, and I even think like a 55k and a 60k.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, definitely. I don't think it changes the viewer experience too much. Like for someone, like for me, I've never historically, as we've seen through these preview shows, I don't know shit about the times. Um I I just enjoy the racing element here because there's the density is compact enough where Yeah, like I know it's gonna be like five-ish hours upper fours. Like that lends to a certain type of racing style, and we're we're gonna see yeah, we're gonna see like big punches get thrown, you know, way super late, you know, as even towards the run into Chamony.
SPEAKER_02I think probably the uh within the masses, the overarching storyline from a competition standpoint has to be whether or not Tovey Alexanderson extends her dominance here. And I mean, Brett, if if and when she does, should we manufacture some stop Tove shirts?
SPEAKER_00Gosh, it's like I feel like Tove's probably already made them herself. Um yeah, I uh equivalent-wise, Tove's got to have like the highest index of the whole UTMB field, right?
SPEAKER_02I I think so. And I just want to say for for our because we cover so much or so often the Western States golden ticket circuit and more so like the UTMB races of the world and the Coca-Donas, etc. Tove is one of the most dominant athletes in all of a trail running right now. Like this year, one Marathon du Mont Blanc, one Zagama, one short trail worlds last year, and not just won them, but like was very much in a class of her own. Like in these races, second place is sort of out of the picture. Uh she's so dominant that at Worlds last year in the short trail race, the only American man to beat her was Noah Williams.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. Like that's absolutely insane. I just looked at, I just briefly glanced over the UTMB indexes of all three women's fields, UTMB, CCC, and OCC. Tove's UTMB index is 10 points higher than Jen Lichter's and it is tied with Courtney DeWalter. Wow. And the I think the way the UTMB index works is it takes your highest results from like a decent amount of years back. Tove's got that 859 off of like 16 months of racing.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, and that that probably I mean, that seems to me like a score that's still very much in flux and maybe not even quite representative of what she's done.
SPEAKER_00Does Tove's index go up or down from this race?
SPEAKER_02How would it go down? If she loses, I guess, yeah. But even if she like, I guess to like to what extent does it go up? Like what type of performance does she need for this index to be refactored properly?
SPEAKER_00I think if she wins by like 15 minutes, yeah, it would probably go up higher.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. Is she the first woman to get an over 900 index score?
SPEAKER_00It it really seems like she's trending that way. Especially with well, in the way that they just redid the indexes, everyone's got higher. But um Yeah, I mean, if Tovey has a performance here similar to Worlds Short Trail, how much does Tove win by? I think that's really what it is. Like, is there is the second best person in this women's field better than the second best person from Worlds? Because there's there's definitely a good handful that didn't do worlds. There's a lot that did do worlds.
SPEAKER_02Another storyline here. Uh I might rope these three together, but I'll start with Francesco Puppi. I'm really curious to know precisely where his motivation is at. He's got one of the best resumes in this field. He's the 2023 champ, 2024 runner-up, a dominant CCC win last year. Just ran the second fastest Western States ever, 1351. But, and I know a lot can change, but this was, you know, back in the fall, I think when he was interviewed about OCC and CCC, at the time he didn't have that much motivation to come back. And again, similar to kind of like what I heard Tony McCann speak to in that same window. Um, I have not had a chance to watch his latest vlog that just came out a few days ago. But um, if he's there with sort of like that full motivation, he's absolutely a contender. And then the other the other two that I want to mention here is just the interaction between uh Remy Bunet, who I think might be the most informed runner in this field, besides Francesco and Frederick, and then Antonio Martinez Perez, who was second, third, third through 24, and I mean eighth last year, but like he's owned this race. He's been one of the few that consistently comes back each year, him and Robbie Simpson.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, yeah. I I think Francesco just likes racing and is a competitor. And, you know, we had mentioned like the motivation. I wonder if Francesco's gonna have a little bit more freshness coming into this race. I know he did just race Western states, and that's a huge race. But Western States decide, if we just take, if we just call a race a race, Fran has raced less leading up to this point than in previous years because of training for Black Canyon, dropping into the shoulder, wrist injury. So it kept the racing, it also kept the training down, but it might actually lead to a stronger second half of the year. So he might have been thinking, like, oh, I'm gonna be torched and done after Western States, but then being like, oh, I actually feel like I might still have one in me. That's a great point about.
SPEAKER_02I mean, uh, yeah, he is, I think he will be relatively fresh coming into this one. Uh, last storyline for me, again, we talked about this a little bit actually in the CCC preview, but the in-race matchup between McKenna Morley and Lauren Gregory, these are two of the biggest stars from the American scene. Maybe Lauren's a bit more well-known because she's got that prominent YouTube vlog, but McKenna's from that Missoula training group. McKenna actually got Lauren at the Canyons 50K. They went one-two. Yeah. And uh, I know OCC has been like the focal point for all of 2026, but also it has been for Lauren, and they get to match up again. And Lauren and McKenna raised each other broken air, right? Right?
SPEAKER_00They also beat McKenna.
SPEAKER_02Yes. Lauren McKenna uh was a front runner there uh for much of the first, like, I want to say 12k of the race. Lauren passed or Lauren passed, and uh yeah, I think McKenna took seventh. Lauren took second. Yeah, I think so. So they're they're one and one. They're one and one. Similar to Rachel and Courtney over at UTMB. This is the rubber match right here. So very regardless of where they end up in the field, I'm I'm excited about that like matchup within the race. Racing for pings.
SPEAKER_00Paul Walker. I think if I win, get your car and your respect. Any other storylines for you before we get to top Americans? One really cool one. So the world's short trail rematch. I mean, even though Tove won that by a landslide, we have a return of the top four from Worlds. Yeah. All races. So like Tove, Sarah Alonzo, Naomi Lang, Ida Robsham. One, two, three, four at Worlds are all lining up. I love that. OCC. That's sick that we get to see that colossal of a rematch across running as a sport. You rarely see that.
SPEAKER_02So that's huge. This is what we all want. We're in that weird tension in the sport where we want like more races to thrive, and we want like a dispersion of runners and activity healthily across the sport, but at the same time, we also want this like consolidation of competition, and like this is it right here. This is that rare moment where like we get to see it run back and we get to see more start lines with, I think familiarity is a good thing. Like cohorts of runners. You see it in Golden Trail, and we get to see it here too. Fantastic.
SPEAKER_00Yep. So that was that was another another major storyline that I wanted to point out.
SPEAKER_02That's a great one. Okay. Top Americans with the men first. Let's let's analyze just broadly this group. We got Jeshrin Small, Christian Allen, Noah Williams, Cole Campbell, Liam Mayru, Cade Michael, Nick Handel, Brian Whitfield, Matt Daniels.
SPEAKER_01First thoughts.
SPEAKER_00A few more unknowns. Not like unknown names, but like I have a hard time predicting with a degree of confidence how a lot of these people are going to do. Like they have high ceilings, but some of them have also maybe never had the big result on the stage, or sometimes their racing is good, sometimes the racing is not so good. So it's like a lot of question marks for most people not named Christian Allen.
SPEAKER_02What do you think? I think Jesh is the captain of this ship. You know, fourth at OCC in 2023, fifth at CCC in 25. He's got a ton of experience here. Then like dropping way down from Western states.
SPEAKER_00Dropping way down from states. Which was like a micro fade. Yes. Which those ones can take, those ones can be the hardest. Sometimes they can be the hardest. Because you cover the whole distance, but potentially in a bonked state for a while.
SPEAKER_02But yeah, by far, at least on paper, he has the most experience among this contingent. But we've actually seen like one of the cool things about Christian Allen is he does race a lot, and there's some concern there if you are worried about any sense of overracing. But if you look at the two races that he has um raced year over year in Europe the last two summers, 21st in 2025, 21st at Sears and Aul, 15th at Pitts Alpine Glacier on the Golden Trail Circuit, this year improved to sixth at Sears and Aul, seventh at Pitts Alpine, DNF'd OCC in 24. So he's been here before. Yeah. And I wonder if this race could be a part of that. Like I'm starting to figure out Europe a bit more.
SPEAKER_00I remember his 2024 OCC. He went out so hard. Yeah. And was so far in front. It looked like he was racing a 5K at the start of OCC. Like there was just a level of aggression that I was just like, if if he pulls this off, I'm quitting the sport because it's just not fun anymore. And I glad that, like, I mean, not glad to see it that it went that way, but it was just like he's human, there's still learning to do. He's now kind of showing that a more mature improvement scale. And it seems like as an international trail racer, he's yeah, you're kind of ebbing and flowing with the dynamics of each race a little bit differently. And that's leading to consistently better race results. And it also seems like he's stayed a little healthier as a result, too.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. Um, I don't know. Maybe it's hard to say because all of these guys are are thoroughbreds, but maybe the most talented, too. He's he's got a great engine. I feel like I'm giving the talent award to Remy.
SPEAKER_00Oh, I'm talking about the Americans, just the top Americans, top Americans. Yeah. Yeah, I think so. I mean the other person who's like could DNF or could straight up win the whole thing is Matt Daniels. Matt's so good at racing 50ks. He's so good at racing 50ks. He's better at racing more runnable ones, but he's also one of the best in the world when the day clicks. Like Matt's ceiling is still one of the highest ceilings. He just doesn't have the highest floor.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. Man, he's when he's great, he's great. He's great, he's great. I think I'm curious what you think here. I think for this American group, I think it's a win if we get one or two of these guys in the top ten. I don't necessarily see a win coming out of this group. I'm not even sure I see a podium coming out of this group, but I think there's a lot of solid like I think like if we see Christian Allen eighth or ninth at CCC the or OCC this year, I'm stoked.
SPEAKER_00I agree. I think one and one American in the top ten on the men's side is that's my prediction. Cade Michael knocked at the door last year, fifteenth.
SPEAKER_02Fifteenth. I feel like he knocked on this door. Well, he did the other day, actually. He came through. Um But 15th last year, and he walked, I think, a lot of the last five to ten miles. So the fact that he walked in so on fifteenth is wild. Um, and I've I feel like I've been waiting for a result from Cade for a while, but like just behind the scenes talking with Hans, him and Hans have been training partners all summer, and like they're basically the same in training, it sounds like, and I'm just waiting for it to convert to a race. So yeah, um, maybe this is it for Cade.
SPEAKER_00I have a feeling that we've been saying this for a minute now, but I have a feeling that once Cade gets that first one first really great race under his belt, that will start a landslide of great results. Yeah. I but I think he's just he's just gotta get that first one to click, and that's so difficult to do, especially when he's trying to jump into the level that he knows he should be at, which is like being in this top ten, probably trying to contend for this podium.
SPEAKER_02The analogy that I make is it's like on the football team you have the practice squad and the varsity, he's like the practice squad guy that's kicking the ass of all the varsity guys in practice, and they're like, What the heck? This come on, come on, man. Yeah. I had the red jersey on.
SPEAKER_00Why are you sacking me in the backfield? Oh, see, I was picturing him as the quarterback when you were talking about this analogy. We're like, he's the one throwing like absolute dimes to the second and third stringers. And the coaches are like, should we start? But then they're like, We have no reason to not start exactly like we're gonna start Kirky, but Fernando's looking pretty good over here. Not last night, he he actually threw a fat pick six, but that's that's my that's my only QB room like that I that I know like really deeply. But yeah, you're right. That's a good good call out.
SPEAKER_02He's he just he has he has he's highly respected by people in the sport who perform well on the big stage.
SPEAKER_00He he needs to believe in his racing ability on the day the same way that his peers believe in him. Yep. That's what it seems like.
SPEAKER_02Um okay, this women's field from the American side is smaller, I would say, but I would argue that there's a bit of a higher ceiling here. So it's headlined by Lauren Gregory and McKenna Morley, and then we're looking at Aaron Moyer, Sarah Carter, Bailey Kowalchik, Molly Seidel, Tabor, and Tabor Hemming. I believe, I believe that I don't think anyone in this group is winning this race, but I feel very confident that Lauren and McKenna could run into the podium. And I feel like we could see Tabor, who led this race before DNFing in 2024, running inside the top five. So I think we could have density in the middle of this top ten. So I think higher upside than the Americans, and maybe also higher overall top 10 upside, but it's just it's a it's a more consolidated group. Tabor's been on a bit of a heater this year. Tabor's broken era 23k was one of the best races she ever had. Followed up, I mean that and that comes off of a third place at the ascent.
SPEAKER_00Tabor was right behind Lauren. Like I was standing there at the finish, and Lauren came through, and then Tabor was right behind. Like, if we're talking about that kind of gap and we're talking about Lauren being like, if not Tovey, then who? If it's Lauren, then it's also Tabor.
SPEAKER_02It's crazy because, you know, on their pod, we heard Tabor contemplating quitting the sport after black caning this year, DNFing the 100k. I think she was dealing with some sort of like misdiagnosed tendinopathy in her Achilles, something like that. Like it was sort of dark days there. And I think also I think racing more frequently in the past had worked for her, and I think they had sort of given into this idea of like really like long training blocks, tapering, getting ready, and that's just kind of not their style. And so it seems like things flipped right around Roth Rock, which is I think where they qualified for this, maybe. I think you're right. And then, yeah, those broken arrow results. I think she had a solid Sears, and I think she was really happy with Sears and all a few weeks back. Yeah, it was a good test piece for her. And yeah, like I said, I mean, she was leading this race for quite a while. Her both both her and Eli were leading the race concurrently in 2024. Their racing success is so connected. Like whether they know it or not, it's always interesting. Yeah, that's a great one. So I mean, I think high upside. The one thing I will say, also they've been training in teen at altitude for quite a bit.
SPEAKER_01Oh, really?
SPEAKER_02Yeah. And I know Tabor, they brought their uh bike out there to just I think Tabor's been dealing with the Achilles thing for like still, it's still a thing. So I think she's converted some of the running mileage into biking mileage. She took like the the stationary bike out to teen, like they shipped it out. A stationary bike? Oh, not a real bike. Well, I don't know.
SPEAKER_00No, like it had to be. I don't know if it was the real bike or the station bike. Anyways, they have a bike out there. Okay. She's doing a lot of biking mileage. That's why that's that makes sense. Oh, you think they're gonna be wearing it? What if they brought the Zwift out? I mean, I would bring my road bike or gravel bike and the trainer. I would not bring a stationary bike. There's too many good roads here to ride. Slap you if you just brought a stationary bike. We'll ask them later. Do you feel the same like that with that women's field? How about Molly? What do you think about Molly? I was, yeah, I I my qu I said, is Molly is Molly racing? Because I like Molly's, yeah. I still uh TBD on Molly's uh ceiling in terms of more technical running. Molly's very fast. Molly's greater. I'm sure Molly can climb with anyone. That's usually where the road speed comes from. Is you know Molly's gonna be a great climber, but how is the second climb? How's the third climb? You know, but if Molly's still doing all right, Molly's gonna be the person who's like, I don't want Molly next to me once we get past Argentiere because of how runnable this new finish is Molly's one of those people that benefits greatly from the new finish. Yes. Uh well, it's funny, Lauren Gregory benefits hugely from the new finish. McKenna Morley benefits hugely from the new finish. Lauren and McKenna, especially Lauren, have proven their chops a little bit more on the more mountain-y stuff. Um, like with Lauren's recent speed goat, McKenna broken arrow. I guess Lauren also a broken arrow. So I've I've just got a little bit more of a question mark with Molly in terms of just like how does how much overlap is there between Molly's fitness and then the like technicality, the footing, the finesse of this course? Because you have to have a good blend of both.
SPEAKER_02Let me ask you a question. So, and again, the season is so long, it's easy to forget that Molly's like we can call it basically her debut into the scene. Like Bandera 50k course record, that amazingly impressive micro fade, fourth place performance, golden ticket performance at Black Canyon, and then the Western States finish, like right around the 24-hour mark, obviously way off expectations. But do you think that that was actually good for her confidence to just get that finish done at Western States for the rest of like to begin this ultra career?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I do. It doesn't help with the recovery and bounce back for OCC, but thinking long term, Molly now has, in my opinion, what should be a positive memory of her first hundred miler.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. That's huge.
SPEAKER_00Yeah.
SPEAKER_02Okay. Men's field breakdown, returners. We got four of last year's ten coming back, Pet Rangdahl, Christian Jones, Antonio, who I mentioned earlier, and Luca all return. I include all of them in the favorites alongside Remy Benet, Frederick Tranchand, Daniel Pattis, Poopy. And of the Americans, I do I do put Jesh as a favorite here.
SPEAKER_00Any other considerations for that favorites group? Is your favorites like favorite? Like they could all win this race. I see my favorite podium. Okay. Yep.
SPEAKER_02Jesh is sort of my out, like my one sort of risky, but I still put him in the favorites category there.
SPEAKER_00I think Elaine Santa Maria Blanco. I just I like that name for one. But recently 11th at Sierras and all, but fourth at worlds in the short trail last year. So like that speed, punchy climbing ability is there. So that's just another name that I feel like like he could sneak a podium because that like the upper end of the capacity is there. Um did you say Robbie Simpson?
SPEAKER_02I I have Robbie in my question marks category, actually. Really? Yeah, well, because with Robbie, so second, third, fifth, and tenth here between 21 and 24. Yeah, that's not really the trend that you want. And I'm just wondering, obviously, he's one of the best of his generation, but like in 26, does he have enough?
SPEAKER_00Is that a perfect example of trailflation where like he has not gotten any worse year after year? Yes. But the place has gotten worse.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, and I think I mean I I think at this point I want to say he's 38. I think it's actually interesting that at 38 he has stayed true to this distance.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, it's cool. I mean, Christian Monogio last year, 40, was giving Jim a run for his money. Yeah, so yeah, exactly. So exactly. Did Matt Daniels just turn 40? I don't know, actually. He's like getting close. He's close. Apologies, Matt, if you're not 40 yet. I just called you 40. But it's a compliment. How do you feel about Remy Bonnet?
SPEAKER_02So Remy, like I said earlier, I think he's he's the he's one of the most informed runners right now. He just beat Frederick Tranchant at Marathon du Mont-Blanc a few weeks ago, and Frederick's only lost to two. Frederick's raced six times this year. He's won three races, he's lost to two people. Uh, Remy and Manuel Morillas at two of the sky running circuit races. The issue with Remy is he's never completed this race. He had that crash at 2024 OCC, skipped last year with the tibular stress fracture. So it's a big question mark.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, he it's like in terms of pure aerobic capacity, Remy is the top person in this field. He he just hasn't had great success in races of over four hours.
SPEAKER_02I think it's I think it's only positive that he had that great result at Marathon de Mont Blanc. And he beat Frederick, who I absolutely consider a contender for the win.
SPEAKER_00Absolutely. I think the Marathon de Mont Blanc result for Remy this year is the greatest indicator of success for him than any other time that he started this race. Yeah, so I I mean I feel yeah, I feel like this is this is his best chance of running a a complete uh OCC than any of the other times that he's lined up. Um you had mentioned Daniel Patis. Yep. I really like him as a favorite because he got second at Zagama, barely losing to El Housine. Like like it was a couple seconds. Like if you're kicking at Zagama, if you're kicking at the end of Zagama with El Husine, you are one of the best in the world. Yes. Like yeah, I mean Elhusine has kind of been the benchmark for these two to three hour races for the last few years. And if you are anywhere near him, you have the ceiling to to win OCC.
SPEAKER_02Great season so far, like you said, second at Zagama, second at the Euro Off-Trail Championships, which seems like a really cool new-ish event, and then first at the Laboredo 50k. So yeah, like recently, just also great and yeah. All right, so my question marks and dark horses on the question marks side of things, Christian Allen. Again, question in the sense that like does he extend this year summer of European improvement year over year? Robbie, just because of like linearly, it seems like he's trending off the top ten. Arcade, just because of the raw talent there. And then the the the one here that I haven't mentioned yet is uh David, David, David Magnini. Magnini. So 52nd at Sears and All, DNF at Marathon Du Bont Blanc this year. Last year was eighth at Short Trail Worlds and one Marathon Dubont Blanc. So which which which version shows up?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, totally. Um do you know what some people did have just off days at Sears and all, I guess, but do you know if there's anything behind Petter Engels or subpar Sears and all result? I don't know. Because if you don't look at that, you know, he's got the most recent success at OCC with a fourth place last year.
SPEAKER_02Yeah.
SPEAKER_00Kind of like getting back down into the shorter stuff after a couple years stint of you know, Western states things. Um I think that was his second stint of longer like a longer race trail season. Uh so I'm curious if like the short distance like OCC Petter is in form this year.
SPEAKER_02I have a little less red flags about a runner in like the months before if their previous attempt at this race went pretty well.
SPEAKER_00I think I feel that way too for this race. Yeah. Especially at least for OCC. Yeah. And Petter's, you know, not a stranger to UTMB week. He knows it. Unfortunately, I mean his most famous moment here was that ankle roll. Caught on camera. I know. That was wild. What's the over or under that UTMB? Reposts that again this year.
SPEAKER_02And the one that he did at Western States a few years back, too.
SPEAKER_00Yeah.
SPEAKER_02In the high country. Yeah, that was wild.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, hopefully that new Adid issue um helps him out with the ankles.
SPEAKER_02Dark Horses for me. Uh I've got three here. Uh two Americans, Noah Williams and Cole Campbell. These are our American Cowboys. And then Naishon Kiplemo, fourth at Pitts Alpine in the Golden Trail World Series, first at Grand Raid Von 2, 11th at Sears and all last year. I think this is a move up in distance, but I think he's a longest race. It is the longest, but he's knocking, I think. And so it's a little bit of a stretch for me to say Dark Horse, but I I think we could see something here. And I just love that name, Nahan Kiplemo.
SPEAKER_00Sounds fast. I'm excited to see what uh Kogan Oga Sawaro does.
SPEAKER_02Smoking Kogan.
SPEAKER_00Smoke and Kogan. Um yeah, he's he's a he's very consistent in this three to five hour race range, you know. Gorgeous 50k champion, more recently third at the Chongli 50K. Uh it's been a minute, but like Javanese runners have had success at UTMB. Yeah. I mean, that that could be like which Rui Rui Ueda is also racing uh OCC, and he's been kind of the like star subulture runner, even though he's bounced around in distances a lot. He's been one of the star Japanese runners for a while.
SPEAKER_02Do we see any upside for a podium from a Japanese runner at any of these races?
SPEAKER_00I don't know if I see a podium. I see like top ten contention right now at least. But I I think he would be like the my Japanese dark horse.
SPEAKER_02Women's field breakdown returners for the top 10 return, Yudith Mode, Sarah, and Ida Emily. And I include all of them again as favorites here alongside Tove Alexanderson, Lauren Gregory, Naomi Lang, and one of my favorite names in the sport, Malin Osa Anza.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, there's some firepower at the top of this women's OCC field. It it kind of almost feels like a continuation of a Golden Trail race. We've got a lot of the Golden Trail circuit names. Yep. Here, plus plus, like you know, Worlds, Tove, Lorne, Gregory, Tabor, uh you know, it you know, a name that I feel like is I hope is on the return that has one of the highest ceilings is Bailey Kowalchik. Yeah. Like Bailey's very good at running, just had a year of injury. Dark horse for me. Yeah, I think and and Bailey had a great uh Gorge 50k, which was like that was like the the Bandaid. Tara uh Gen. Yao Meow and Jen.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, yeah.
SPEAKER_00Fantastic battle.
SPEAKER_02So I I'm really I fought with Tara for that final podium spot.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, yeah. So I'm I'm hopeful for Bailey's return to elite level racing. And I think if she's healthy and you know in the right training space, like top ten contender outside podium shot.
SPEAKER_02I I put McKenna Morley in my dark horse category only because I feel like because Lauren won that Golden Trail World Series final last year, like there's a large European audience that already knows her. And if we're extending out like our audience to just like worldwide, maybe she has more names. It's gotta be on that list. But again, McKenna beat her at uh Canyon's 50k. Lauren beat her at uh at the 23k at Broken Arrow earlier this summer.
SPEAKER_00But um Yeah, my question mark for McKenna is just the uh the mountain technicality of this course because I mean McKenna's a very good runner, very fast. Canyons does not have rocks. Um it's got it's got some vert, but it's it's all running without much uh like thinking for where your feet have to go. And this course you have to run fast and think about where your feet are going.
SPEAKER_02I think a lot of people are gonna be Yeah, like Lauren called it the Tove category. So after the Tove category, what is what's the battle for like like is the battle for second place is like almost like consolation win? And I see if we're gonna honor that, I see I actually see like the the front runner for next up being between Naomi Lang and Malin. Naomi, I think is right there, knocking third at Marathon de Mont Blanc, third at Pitts Alpine, third at World Short Trail last year. Malin second to Tove at Zagama, first at Lavareto 50K, first at Sky Race to Matheson. Interesting straight at Zagama. And I don't know if this was symbolic because Malin sees Tove as in her own category, but a couple people that were there said that Malin actually, for a second before awards, went up to the top of like the first place podium and like stood there and like took it in for a second. Seems like bad juju. I don't know.
SPEAKER_01I don't know.
SPEAKER_02But like I think maybe it might have been the this joke that like Tobey is so next level that like this was the other race that was going off.
SPEAKER_00Every once in a while you get an athlete that comes through where I mean there was many years where we I mean we still kind of talk about Courtney lining up for races like that, where it's like, well, Courtney's racing this, and this is Courtney's style of racing. Courtney's going to win. Tovey's right now for this, like it really feels like if Tove's not it not a matter of if Tovey's gonna win, it's how much does Tove win by and who is gonna get second. And I think the race for second has a chance to be very close because I don't see an obvious second place finisher.
SPEAKER_02I'm gonna give you an interesting human interest story, and I think I have all my facts right here. We both know how how who finished who's finished inside the top 10 at Western States. But for those that don't know her story, born in a village in northern Vietnam, I pulled this off her website, refused entry to university to become a physic phys ed teacher strictly for being two centimeters under the 155 centimeter height requirement for this position. I guess this is something in Vietnam, despite top marks. Ten years later, she finds herself divorced, out of shape, raising a child, loses her job to in the tourism industry to the pandemic. As a result of that, starts running in August of 2020. About a month later, she wins a local 21k in the town of Sappa. And then later that fall, outright wins the Vietnam Mountain Marathon, which is on the World Trail Major Circuit. Fast forward five years later, she's basically the queen of Vietnamese trail running, famous for that like conical hat dance that she does at finish lines. Fourth at OCC or fourth at CCC twice, ninth at Western in June. Super cool story.
SPEAKER_00Like that's completely, completely transformed her life. Wow. Yeah, that's that's way more inspiring than damn keeping. Not that damn keeping's uninspiring, but like holy crap, like that's really cool. That's a yeah, that's a whole, that's an arc.
SPEAKER_02So if you for those that are watching this on Thursday, how how is running and uh it's it's just cool to have that that background context.
SPEAKER_00Yeah.
SPEAKER_02Like reinvention, redefining yourself, you know, not quitting. I can't believe there's a height requirement for like these jobs. I don't I don't get that.
SPEAKER_00I don't understand that unless you're like a roller coaster keeper.
SPEAKER_02I've seen How How. She's like she's small, but not like I don't know. What was this job for? Uh like a phys ed teacher. She was training to be a phys ed teacher out of university. And I guess you need to height requirements. Oh, we want you to we don't want you to teach kids how to be short. I don't know. Let's let's close with predictions. Brett, let's we've we've kind of been in sync for both UTMB and CCC. Are we in sync for OCC? Let's hear your winners and winning times, or I can go first if you want.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, you go you go this time.
SPEAKER_02I've got mine written down. Okay. On the men's side, after three straight years of like being so close, I've got Antonio Martinez Perez winning. And then on the women's side, probably no surprise, Tove. Alexanderson winning times 454 for Antonio, which I I wrote this down before the course chain, so it's so hard to know. And then Tove in 516. I think it is a women's course record, even with the reroute.
SPEAKER_005'16. Yeah. So you said the 454 to 5'16. So you think the men's winner and Tove are only going to be 20 minutes apart?
SPEAKER_02I think they're going to be 22 minutes apart. Okay. That's my I think that might be my hottest take.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. I think I was I was thinking more like 30 to 40 minutes. Okay.
SPEAKER_01But I like it. I like it.
SPEAKER_02I'll say two more things. Uh top Americans. I've got Lauren, McKenna, and Tabor all inside the top 10. I don't think I see any American men in the top 10, even though I would love to. And then I just think this is funny because I think this brand is intra- I've got two guys from X-Bionic in the top 10.
SPEAKER_00All right. Cool. And it's because they went out super hard, but then just faded a little bit.
SPEAKER_02There's actually like I was just looking at the distribution of shoe brands on the elite entrance list, and they're actually like X Bionic. There are a couple guys with index scores over 900 on the X-Bionic team.
SPEAKER_00Well, they have they make the best apparel. Like, you know, I mean they're huge in Europe from an apparel standpoint. And then they've just recently started making shoes. So it makes like I don't really see them as like a small emerging brand where it's like, oh wow, how are they sponsoring this? That's like, well, they've already probably had a decent amount of money just from the apparel that they make, and now they're just starting to get into the shoe side of things. But um also just a brand that like relatively non-existent in the US. Yeah. Although I love their socks. I have some in my bag over there. Okay. I've got Tove winning on the women's side. I didn't I didn't have times written down for she, especially because of the course change now where it's like Yeah, take our course change stuff too. It almost feels like it, like I've heard that it's could be anywhere from like I heard this could be upwards of 10 minutes faster in terms of just this course change. Okay. So yeah, like we might see course records just because the course is faster. Tove for the win. But then I'm gonna, you know, we're gonna talk about the side. I think Yudis wider is gonna say Yudis had great success here and has been one of the top dogs you know, at this style of race. I think our top American is going to be Lauren McGregory, who rounds out the podium. Okay. Men's side, I think this is the time that Remy Bonet sticks it and figures out the longer race, the 60k. And I've got I've got Remy winning it. And it's it's it's going to be fast. I I don't think there's two people who I think don't let this race be slow, and that's Francesco Poopy and Christian Allen. You know, even though Fran is moving down to OCC from Western States, yeah, he has the the cadence, the the running capability to just be in the front no matter what. And Christian is so fast that even a too fast pace still doesn't feel that fast for him from the get-go. So they will keep it honest, but then someone's got to finish it out. And Remy's Remy's very fast, so I think even though he's one of the best VK runners in the world, the flatter finish actually does help him a lot, too.
SPEAKER_02Before we close out and get Brett's final thoughts, this is the conclusion of our preview episodes for the UTB World Series Finals for this OCC edition. Let us know in a in the comments on YouTube what you think of our picks, our predictions, our analysis on Instagram at our Run Single Track account. We will have our power rankings coming out today, later today on Friday, August 21st. We'll do probably some like quick hit like official predictions for each of these races.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, separate from our power rankings. Yes. It will have like our power rankings, and we'll have like basically our free trail picks.
SPEAKER_03Yes.
SPEAKER_02Yes, free trail picks. And then uh we'll be back Thursday night with an instant reaction episode from OCC, Friday night with an instant reaction recap episode from CCC, and Saturday night for UTMB. And you never know, stay tuned. We might we're still kind of deciding whether we'll get if we can get some of the athletes in post-race for interviews, but um if not, Brett, can't wait for our recaps. Cheers. Final thoughts from you. Any final thought? Parting thought.
SPEAKER_00We're what day is it? Is it Thursday? Friday, Friday, August 21st. So I feel like it's gonna really start feeling like UTMB week on Sunday. Because we've seen some brands start popping up things, but still a lot of not there's still a lot of people here who are not here for UTMB. We're still inside attrition week. Yeah, and so it'll be fun to kind of see the two differences.
