Helen Wilcox  0:04  
Welcome to the Hydrofiles, the HR Wallingford podcast. I'm Helen Wilcox and with me today are three of our water resource experts

Chris Counsell  0:12  
Chris Counsell, part of our water resources team at HR Wallingford and I work primarily in the UK water resources sector,

Aodhín McBride  0:19  
Aodhin McBride, also a water resource scientist. I've been looking a lot at regional water resources the last few years.

George Woolhouse  0:27  
And George Woolhouse, a principal scientist. And I work more on the international side of Water Resources and climate change adaptation.

Helen Wilcox  0:35  
And today, we're talking about climate change and water in the context of how we ensure that there is enough water to go around as the world's climate changes.  

George Woolhouse  0:43  
So climate change impacts directly on the global water cycle. Rising temperatures, and changing rainfall patterns with climate change will affect river flow patterns and groundwater recharge. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has recently issued its latest update on how climate change will impact our planet. It warns of more intense rainfall and flooding as well as intense periods of drought. So we've seen in the past year some examples of this erratic climate manifesting itself in terms of unprecedented heat heat waves, such as the heat dome in the northwest Pacific, the flooding in Germany and the the ongoing drought in Iran. From a water management perspective, we're really going to have to cope with these increasingly erratic weather patterns in future. And climate change is also happening at a time of rising global water demand. Water demand has risen six-fold over the past 100 years at a global level, and it's projected to increase by further 55% by 2050, based on UN figures. In some countries, water is being extracted faster than it can naturally be replenished by rainfall. Globally, 69% of water is used for agriculture. And this can reach 95% in some developing countries. This rising demand has serious implications for food security, and the environment. But I know, every region and country has its own very specific water challenges. And I know Chris, that you've been working on water and climate change in the UK, so perhaps you can expand on what climate change means in the UK context.

Chris Counsell  2:27  
So in the UK, the way we manage water, and the infrastructure we've built has evolved to meet the needs for water from different sectors, and the kind of weather patterns that exist in different parts of the UK. And climate change, through changing rainfall volumes or seasonal patterns of weather could have a real impact on that management of water and lead to increased water stress. We've seen in the in recent years, we've had some hot, dry summers, and concerns about how long those events could last for and how we would manage a prolonged sustained regional drought. And looking ahead into the future, If you think about the move to a net zero carbon future, that has the potential to change the energy mix, which in turn will change the water demands that we need to supply that energy mix. So as we adapt to climate change, and mitigate our emissions as well, working out what is the best solutions, and in what time frames, becomes the key question to answer. 

Aodhín McBride  3:35  
And I guess in addition to that, there's a growing realisation that the way in which we're using water at the moment before we even factor in climate change can be detrimental in some areas. So an example in the UK is that 85% of the chalk streams are located in the southeast of England, where population growth is forecast to exceed average growth. So you're looking at increasing demands for water, but in a globally unique ecosystem that needs additional protection. We're looking at reducing abstractions in those areas. And on the same hand, you're still looking to supply that region with additional water for human consumption. So there's a real challenge of balancing what the environment needs, with what the human population needs in terms of water use.

Helen Wilcox  4:26  
And given these challenges, how do we ensure that there is enough water to go around in the future? George, any thoughts?

George Woolhouse  4:33  
Well, that's a massive question. Water does underpin the functioning of our society, our economies, and and also critically, the environment as well. So clean water for personal consumption is a basic human right. Water is also critical for food production and industrial processes, and sustaining our ecosystems on which we depend. So one way I guess to look at this question is to think about the two sides of the equation: water supply and water demand if you're thinking about things like potable water supply or for agriculture. Can we source additional water supplies, for example by building new reservoirs, new infrastructure desalination plants? Or can we reduce our demand for water by using water more efficiently to make the supplies that we do have go further. In the context of climate change, that really brings additional uncertainties into the mix. So if we want additional supplies, then how susceptible to climate change will these be? For example, new reservoirs might suffer from reduced inflows in the future, or other infrastructure may be impacted by extreme weather events, which will change with climate change. And the solutions to this balance are really very dependent on the local characteristics and the local situation. What works in one location is not necessarily appropriate in another,

Helen Wilcox  6:00  
Is there a great difference, so we're seeing a lot of different solutions needed in different parts of the world?

George Woolhouse  6:06  
From my own perspective, I've been working in small island developing states in the Caribbean region for a number of years, helping prepare adaptation plans to help the region adapt to climate change. And in many of these small island states, keeping the taps running is already a major challenge. So for example, Dominica is an area that we've we've worked in the past. It sits right in the hurricane belt and it was devastated by category five hurricane in 2017, Hurricane Maria. In the context of the water supply in Dominica, it damaged or destroyed 44 or 43 of the water supply systems and on the island water is generally sourced from the small mountain streams flowing out of the central mountains. And I remember visiting Dominica and and asking the local engineers for the water utility, what the damage was like after the hurricane for their assets. And they said, some of their intakes on these systems, they couldn't even locate them after the hurricane. They've just been completely removed. So climate resilience in that context, really means building infrastructure, which is more resilient to these types of extreme weather events, and what they've been doing building back after the hurricane is to redesign their intake structures to work with the power of the rivers rather than rather than against them. So that's one sort of context to keeping the taps running. You can contrast that with another island, Antigua, where we've also been working on long term planning for climate resilience and water security. And Antigua is a very drought prone Island. Water is sourced from a combination of groundwater, some surface water reservoirs, and also critically desalination plants. The surface water sources are highly vulnerable to drought and over the serious drought in 2016, essentially, there was no supply provided by surface water sources. So then they're reliant on groundwater, and desalination. The groundwater sources available for saline intrusion if they're over pumped. So there's then a high reliance on desalination. And the issue with desalination is, it's really very energy and very carbon intensive. So the type of solutions we're looking at in this situation, Antigua, is trying to minimise the use of desalination. Through reducing inefficient use of water and leakage. There's no point in disseminating water at great expense if you have a very leaky distribution network. And using freshwater resources where possible. It's also important to note in that context, that by reducing demand for water, you can actually reduce energy consumption through your treatment and distribution processes, and reduce your carbon emissions as a result. So it's a it's a win win adaptation and mitigation benefit. So I'd always advocate for managing demand.

And that's also true in the UK, I think demand is a key part of the solution. In the UK, a key thing is the expectation of customers is that we'll have reliable supplies at all times. And ensuring that is going to be a challenge under under a changing climate. The mix of solutions will be some supply side and some demand side. So through leakage reductions, changing our behaviours, new technologies for water saving, but on the supply side, we are still going to need new sources but to make sure those sources are the right sources in the right places. So increasingly, we're planning at a regional and national scale to make sure that we develop solutions that can can meet various needs for various sectors in the country.

Helen Wilcox  9:54  
So what sort of solutions and sources aare being looked at?

Chris Counsell  9:58  
A key one is sharing of all; moving water from west to east or from north to south, and make better use of water, but also new reservoirs or desalination effluent reuse, all of those are part of the mix, and it's working out what are the right solutions in the right places There are some parts of the country, in the southeast, where there are limited options for new sources. So alongside demand. it's about coming up with other ways of providing water, either through desalination, or, or transfers and imports. So we have to take into account other sectors, so providing food security, energy security. Sometimes by investing in new sources, you can provide benefits to those sectors and environmental benefits elsewhere.

Aodhín McBride  10:47  
Better use of the sources that we currently have is is something that, as Chris said. that that's really been looked into in the industry. So at the moment, it's estimated that approximately a 10th of all rivers and a third of all groundwater aquifers in England, are probably at risk of environmental damage due to the way they've been utilised. The likelihood of getting your licences for new abstractions is decreasing at current use. And that's only, you know, likely to get more prevalent as climate change manifests itself. So using what we have at the moment, better, is really important. And a really positive development we've seen in the last few planning cycles in the UK is the emergence of regional groups where water companies, you know, proximity with each other, which could potentially share sources or share supplies, as Chris has mentioned, are beginning to talk more openly and transparently with each other and plan together. So we're seeing Regional Water Resources plans, coming together, modelling water resources on a regional scale, looking at, you know, where areas of surplus water could donate to areas of forecast scarcity. And these are all really positive steps in how we're ensuring there will be enough water to go around in future. So some of the projects we've been working on over the past few years, such as the Water UK long term planning, and climate change risk assessments, we've looked at three iterations. From a water supply perspective, these are all helping out, identify what potential solutions there are available for, you know, the challenges of supplying water into the future. Some of these solutions are transfers of water from west to east or north to south. And some of them could be effluent reuse, which is already something we're doing anyway. Kind of pretty gross statistic is that your water that you drink in East London could potentially have been through eight people by the time it's in your cup of tea.

Helen Wilcox  13:02  
So Chris mentioned that certain areas may not have enough water, but other areas do. Is that very much about well, where the rainfall is more prevalent in the UK, or other reasons?

Chris Counsell  13:13  
There's also the demand, where the demand is concentrated has a huge, huge impact. And there's been a lot of growth in the South East of England, and in other parts of the UK, that has put pressures on supplies for water.

Helen Wilcox  13:27  
In terms of climate change forecast. it is quite hard to be certain exactly how that's gonna play out, which must make it quite difficult in terms of how you plan and how you advise people how to plan for climate change.

Chris Counsell  13:43  
It is a key challenge and the science is continually evolving. New evidence comes out and our understanding of what that evidence might mean for water resources is constantly improving. But I'd say in the UK, the water resources sector is probably at the forefront in how we think about climate change, and how extreme events such as droughts might evolve into the future. And the planning process is adaptive by design. So every five years, we kind of formally look at our plans for the future. And these plans look around 80 to 100 years into the future. By which time horizon, the uncertainties around what kind of future we might be looking at are large. So it's about not having one single plan of action, but you have an understanding of what plans you would need for different types of futures, and at what kind of thresholds you need to change what your solution might look like, and how you monitor that, look for evidence to support when you might switch plans. So essentially, we have multiple plans that can adapt to the how the future might evolve. And as the science improves.

Helen Wilcox  14:59  
And do you ask, you're working with a customer? Do you ask them to pick which of those plans they're going to choose? Or do you advise and on which one.

Chris Counsell  15:06  
is guidance across the industry as to what sort of plans you should look look at. And it in part depends on your current level of resilience. And also, how sensitive your area or systems are to climate change. There are some parts that maybe are less sensitive, and therefore we need to do less analysis and less work to plan in those areas for climate change. In others, where you might be looking at large solutions, large investments, you have to be rigorous in how you examine the climate change evidence and look at how your solution might evolve if the future pans out very differently. At the moment, we don't really know what we might expect in terms of global emissions into the future, and the impact that will have on water resources. So we have to be flexible in our planning.

George Woolhouse  16:01  
So there's an interesting point, Chris. I think, in sort of contrast to that some of the work that I've been involved in in Yemen presents quite a few different challenges to that. In order to be able to plan for these uncertain futures, as you are in the UK, you really need to have a very clear picture of the baseline conditions: what's the situation at the moment in terms of supply and demand. That's, that's very well understood in the UK and allows you to be able to plan long into the future. In many developing countries, the data on water consumption and availability is limited. So, for example, we've been doing some work in Yemen, where the the ongoing conflict has really prevented the monitoring of groundwater resources in Yemen over the past five or six years. There's very little information about the situation for groundwater use and availability on the ground. We know that even before the conflict in Yemen, groundwater was being pumped out of Yemen's aquifers much faster than it was being replenished. The groundwater levels have been dropping over the past 30 or 40 years due to a massive expansion in irrigation of crops. So about 90% of the water consumed in the Yemenis is used for agricultural irrigation. So we know we have this issue of groundwater depletion in Yemen. And the challenge really is understanding for the present day, what the situation is, which areas is suffering from the most depletion and how fast that rate of depletion is happening, when a aquifers going to be exhausted, beyond their usable levels. The challenge is that there's very little information to do that. So what we've been looking at is trying to use alternative approaches to make these kinds of estimates. So we've been looking at satellite data to try and estimate how much rainfall is occurring across Yemen. And also, critically, where irrigation is occurring, and how much water is being used to irrigate crops to be able to estimate how much water is being pumped from groundwater sources to help us identify those areas where groundwater is dropping fastest. So this type of information is really critical for understanding the present conditions and targeting interventions to improve water use efficiency, and manage the competition over water resources. And it provides a starting point for us to estimate how changes in climate such as changing rainfall patterns, or irrigation water requirements might impact on water resources further into the future.

Helen Wilcox  18:46  
Aodhin, this is obviously very complicated science and you're doing a lot of complicated modelling. How do you communicate your work to people who don't have the technical knowledge that you have? And how do you get stakeholders engaged in the process and get them to understand what you're doing?

Aodhín McBride  19:06  
This is a really, really important point. I think that as scientists, it's very tempting to go down a rabbit hole and look at more models, more scenarios, more and more methods of analysing but really at the forefront, you have to consider, what is the question you're trying to answer? Who is going to be using this information and how do they need to use it? So where we've seen this work best in projects I've been involved in is where upfront you get your client and their stakeholders, you know, the other side of the table, involved in designing whether it's, you know, what models that you're going to use, or more usually than not how the data will be visualised and analysed at the end so that they can get a clear picture from the start of what it is  we're producing for them. We need to understand: what are their pressures? Do they need to make a decision? o their managers need to have information in a certain format. And in the UK, we have, as we've discussed these plans that climate change is really at the core of them, but that there are 1000s of different, you know, climate change runs that are being analysed and modelled and then analysed. So we have vast amounts of data. And it is a challenge to pare that down into, you know, the essence of what our clients really need. And that's something I think everyone needs to really think about,

Helen Wilcox  20:37  
what sort of tools are you using to analyse that data, these vast quantities of data.

Aodhín McBride  20:42  
So we usually use the, you know, climate change scenarios, and they're run through our water resources models, hydrological models. We then use coding languages to visualise whether it's plots or tables and that typically is the way we communicate this information with our customers and clients.

Chris Counsell  21:05  
On top of that, we look at what did the events mean, for the stakeholders? So trying to bring those events to life. So what are the consequences of a sustained drought? A regional scale drought?  What would that mean for different sectors for the environment? Industry? And I think that is a key part of our work is to try and get perhaps a wider engagement on these issues to get everyone to think about what would a drought mean. So a bit like the pandemic has recently, it was a kind of hypothetical risk for a long, long time. And then suddenly it hit. And it's like, why this is what it means to the country, this is what it's going to impact, everything is affected. And I think a regional scale, sustained drought could have the same kind of impact. I'd rather we found a way of communicating this issue and the risks before the event happens so that we do the investment and that we properly compare the investments that we would be making to ensure that doesn't happen with the costs and consequences of an event happening that we haven't prepared for.

Helen Wilcox  22:08  
So very good point that it's all about preparation, isn't it ? And when you say you'd like to get more people engaged, you're talking about the population at large, as well as the people who are making these decisions? 

Chris Counsell  22:18  
Yes, I think so. I think that's how we get proper buy in from everyone, from all the stakeholders, and the political will to prioritise this investment. If you think about what it would mean, if for the whole of the southeast of England was to not have water - wht that would actually mean. And the political fallout, the well being and the health of the economy, it would be huge. The last big drain we had that covered a large part of the UK was probably 1976, where we had standpipes in the road. But there's also been other events such as in in Yorkshire in '95-'96. And it's those types of events that have helped progress water resources planning, because people react to those events; they have a real impact across sectors. And without those big events happening, it's often quite hard to get the kind of political will to make changes and make those investments because they are quite expensive.

Helen Wilcox  23:12  
Over the last 50 years, how have we managed to avoid standpipes; what's changed?

Chris Counsell  23:18  
In part it's been the droughts. Often, the emerging drags have kind of stopped, there have been storm events and rainfall that has helped bring those to an end before they really bit. In part is being really good planning and learning from events like 1976. So '76 figured a whole change in how we did water resource planning. And that has worked very well. What it didn't really think about was climate change, and how the picture could change and how our weather patterns could change into the future. So I think we in the sector recognise there are very real risks at the moment, and that we need to invest and plan for those. But communicating that to the to the wider population is a key challenge.

George Woolhouse  24:03  
That's a really important point that you've raised about trying to visualise a significant drought happening in the UK. And the water supplies in the UK have been so consistent and resilient over the past 50 or so years, it's quite hard for customers perhaps to anticipate what a serious drought would look like. In some of the small island states that I've been working in the situation is quite different. So, in many of these small islands, every dry season there will be water disruption due to a lack of rainfall, low river flows, impacting the availability of water for domestic use through the water companies and these islands. And that will involve tracking of water to some communities in the dry season and distribution to personal tanks that people keep in their homes. So in that sense, some of these developing countries are already well prepared for the issues; water scarcity is something that they're already dealing with. So, in that sense, the ability to adapt to climate change might actually be greater in some of these communities where people are already taking the responsibility for managing water supplies, the dry season water conservation at a sort of household level. Whereas I think in the UK, it's much more put onto the companies to maintain that take that responsibility.

Chris Counsell  25:36  
In terms of those communities, how do you engage with people there in terms of communicating these issues?

George Woolhouse  25:43  
Yeah, it's a good point. I mean, because of the lack of data in many of these countries, we have to do an awful lot of stakeholder engagement. Often, the knowledge of the impacts of previous drought events or hazards will be in the minds of senior engineers who've been working in these places for 20 or 30 years, rather than formally recorded. So we have to use sort of stakeholder engagement and expert elicitation to try and draw out that information. And then interpret what future climate will mean, in terms of how those impacts that they've experienced in the past might change in the future. It's it's more of a qualitative process, than I think, what what you're working on in the UK would be.

Chris Counsell  26:33  
In terms of using climate change protections for small island states, isn't that particularly challenging?

George Woolhouse  26:40  
This is really interesting, because in the UK, you'll have water resources, hydrological and water resources models, which are calibrated, and you'll have many 1000s of climate change projections you can run through to build up a full picture of the range of uncertainty. In developing countries, you simply don't have that quantitative modelling knowledge of the systems. So really, you have to sort of put yourself in the shoes of a decision maker in these small islands where problems are already occurring. Serious droughts occur periodically and have have severe impacts on water supply services. So if you go into too much detail on climate change projections, you risk losing sight of the current issues, which are in the minds of the decision makers. So when you step into their shoes, what they really need to know is, what's the range of uncertainty? And how do I navigate that, to make make my decisions? It has to be boiled down in into quite straightforward information that can be digested.

Helen Wilcox  27:55  
Do you use a lot of graphs to explain to customers about results and modelling? Is that something that's used a lot by you know, how would you sort of help them visualise? Is that the sort of thing you do?

Aodhín McBride  28:06  
Well, that's that's one way. We do communicate our results in a way that we're increasingly looking at communicating, the data we have is using web interfaces. So instead of a customer give being given or a client being given one singular modelling output that they can themselves, filter down and select what it is that's of most interest to them. And we did some work looking at climate change for the last planning cycle where we developed a website that water companies could look at the latest climate change projections, and how different were they from the iteration that came before. They're trying to reduce how much modelling they themselves have to do, because they could readily compare two sets of projections. And if you can imagine if one is the latest set showed a much different picture to what they'd already explored, then they would look at doing more work. So it's trying to present vast quantities of data, but in a way that, you know, makes decisions a bit easier for our clients.

Chris Counsell  29:16  
One of the challenges with water scarcity and droughts is that they are slow burn events in comparison to a flood, which is very visual and dynamic, that they're slow burn. So it's often quite hard to convey what they would feel like and look like. And one of the key things is things that you might have thought unpalatable at the start of a drought, when you don't know how bad it's gonna get, suddenly become things you wish you had done earlier. And one of the things is how do you capture that uncertainty within an event you don't know when a drag is gonna break. You don't know how bad it's gonna get. Again, this is like bringing events to life. I think that is something that we need to be better at. And we're working hard to try and improve. 

Helen Wilcox  30:02  
So from what you've all been saying today, there are a lot of challenges around climate change and ensuring water security in the future. How confident are you, Chris, that the scientific techniques and modelling that you're doing that we will be able to do enough to ensure that there is enough water to go around for everybody in the future.

Chris Counsell  30:28  
I think a key part of the answer to that is where we go as a world in terms of emission scenarios and global emissions. If we continue as we are, then the challenge we're trying to solve is massive, and urgent. So if we can get our emissions under control, that is going to be a big help, and would increase my confidence that we can maintain supplies into the future. I think the tools and methods and the will within the industry and stakeholders is there to solve this problem. But we need to get it to a point where it's manageable, and it doesn't get too bad, too fast. So I am optimistic, but only where there is that political will to change behaviours and the emissions.

Helen Wilcox  31:14  
Presumably, as we've talked about earlier, as well, the population as a whole getting their buy into understanding that we need to be careful with water as a resource.

George Woolhouse  31:24  
I think, in developing country context, these water challenges are real, and they're happening at the moment all over the world. Many different levels. So it's not a future problem. For many countries, it's happening already. And climate change adds a further layer of uncertainty over what the future holds. So anything that can be done to manage emissions and reduce that worry and that uncertainty over what the future holds will be a huge, huge comfort to me. I think, you know, water is really only valued when it's not there. So I think getting the message across in terms of value in water, and investing in more resilient water supplies is absolutely critical. I have a very small role in this in this arena. And you know, what I love about my role as is problem solving. And it's taking science to provide impartial advice, and helping decision makers and stakeholders navigate this uncertainty. But I would I feel that the scientific community does need to do more advocacy. And I think that's something that we could and should do more of in bringing the messages across to a wider audience.

Helen Wilcox  32:48  
Hopefully COP 26 is going to help with that - getting some of those messages out there.

George Woolhouse  32:52  
Yeah, that's why we're here today.

Helen Wilcox  32:54  
Aodhin, Chris, and George, thank you so much for joining me today and sharing your views.

Transcribed by https://otter.ai