Goran Pesic - Samuel Associates Inc.

In this episode of Canadian Equities we are joined by Goran Samuel Pesic, founder and CEO of Samuel Associates. Samuel Associates is Canada's leading strategic consulting and government relations firm headquartered in Ottawa, Ontario. They advise a wide range of clients operating in Canada and worldwide in various industries and sectors, including cybersecurity, defense, and security mixed and augmented reality, artificial intelligence and global supply chain. Goran Pesic and Robert Cooper discuss geopolitics, including the Ukraine war, Europe's response and their risks and opportunities for Canada. For the full length version of the Canadian Equities podcast connect with us at acumencapital.com/podcast.  

Transcript

Moderator 0:00

Welcome to Canadian equities with Acumen Capital today, we're joined by Goran Samuel Pesic founder and CEO of Samuel associates. Samuel associates is Canada's leading strategic consulting and government relations firm headquartered in Ottawa, Ontario. They advise a wide range of clients operating in Canada and worldwide in various industries and sectors, including cyber secure. Defense and security mixed and augmented reality, artificial intelligence and global supply chain. Today, we will be discussing geopolitics, including the Ukraine war Europe's response and the risks and opportunities for Canada. Gordon. Welcome to Canadian equities.

Goran Samuel Pesic 0:40

Thank you very much, Robert.

Moderator 0:42

Before we get started, tell us a little bit about your firm, what you do and who do you see?

Goran Samuel Pesic 0:47

at Samuel associates, uh, we advise clients on strategy, market development and government relations. we act as a speaking partner between our clients and government officials. Our clients are typically market innovators and disruptors of any business size. This could include. anywhere from small enterprises with niche, specializations and capabilities to international and multinational companies, including privately owned foundations.

Moderator 1:20

And tell us a little bit about yourself and your background

Goran Samuel Pesic 1:23

I've had the fortunate, I guess work experience, that spans many decades that includes, having a career in the public and private sectors, covering academia, international business politics, defense, and national security, the experience and broad, strategic understanding that I gained during these years, both at the government level and in the private sector. Enabled me to work domestically in Canada and internationally, including Europe, the U S in the middle east. I am a Fulbright scholar, in the U S national security program from the university of California and a graduate of the university of Toronto, in political science and history

Moderator 2:02

going on, we got a ton to talk about, and I'm not sure we're going to have enough time to get through it all, but let's try to compartmentalize here and start with Russia and Ukraine. Commentators are apt to apply to monikers, to foreign leaders and crazy or insane. And that has been set of flooding your Putin yet decisions other countries make, might indeed make logical sense to them if not to us. So is there any rhyme and reason to Russia's invasion of Ukraine or is this just a strategic miscalculation by our regional power? Who thought they could get away?

Goran Samuel Pesic 2:35

Well, Robert is a very, very good question and timely one. Uh, I give you a sort of three points to this, question. first this is a calculated war, uh, and it is also a bit of a repeat of history because Russia has interfered in the affairs of Ukraine for decades. And to some extent, central. No. The second point I'll make here is that for Russia, it considers Ukraine as if it's near abroad. This means that you, crane is in the Russian sphere of influence and it will engage in activities to maintain favorable leverage over Ukrainian political and economic affairs. And lastly, this is not a miscalculate. Russia believes it can win a conventional war in the era of cyber and AI and hypersonic missiles as it just used hypersonic missile recently. Well, that is the point. This may represent the last conventional war that we see in Europe since future conflicts. If we can imagine them, if they're not all reoccurring, will be artificially intelligent, cyber enabled war. Disinformation campaigns, propagated by AI and machine learning and AI enabled weapon systems that will have decision-making capabilities in conjunction with their human, operators. What does this mean? Well, Russia is using these technologies to some extent now and in the future, should the war extent from months into years,

Moderator 4:10

one of the big questions investors have is. If the war ended tomorrow, we're in the very near future. When things go back to normal. In other words, has there been a temporary change in Europe's posture to Russia, or are we looking at a permanent change in relations between the EU and Russia with all the attendant follow on effects to energy supply, supply chains?

Goran Samuel Pesic 4:32

the war has created a permanent change in Europe. Uh, I was just recently at NATO headquarters, two, three weeks ago. And for example, Sweden and Finland are now seriously considering moving beyond their EU membership and partnership status with no. And they are in discussions with NATO currently, for full membership to ensure they get the article five guarantee that, uh, natal, gives, their, members before the war. For example, Russia Hills 60 to 65% of his foreign currency reserves in euros. It's a quite a large summit if you consider it, uh, this to some extent, is the relationship between the EU and Russia beyond just oil and gas agreements between EU members, and, obviously Russian owned companies regarding the ladder. this is a physical change in the movement of. Raw materials and energy resources. Perhaps Canada can fill this gap. That's left behind right now by the Russian owned state companies. And in fact, today, I believe that Russia started to turn off its pipelines in certain parts. Of Eastern Europe. lastly, beyond the sanctions imposed by the EU and Russia, it is not clear to what extent the economic or financial replica repercussions will result in a prolonged sanctions regime since Russia is and will be in the future, a large consumer of EU goods and services. China may take business away from the EU in the short run. Still German car manufacturers like Audi Mercedes BMW, the chemical industry like BSF or, you know, French high end goods and services will not be replaced by Russia, or any other nation in the foreseeable future.

Moderator 6:32

Canada has taught three or top five positions in virtually everything that Europe is currently buying from Russia, ranging from agricultural products, oil, and gas, uranium. So two questions for you. We're going to have the opportunity for Canada in this environment. And second, are we serious enough as a country?

Goran Samuel Pesic 6:51

Robert. We currently have a free trade agreement with the EU, and that was started in 2017. we may want to fully utilize and optimize the chapters on, agriculture and Agrifoods, oil and gas, uh, metals, mining, and minerals. That are covered under the SITA agreement. there are many opportunities for growth and expansion in the free trade agreement that we have now with the EU. And in my opinion, they should include uranium potash and certainly, other critical natural resources, such as rare earth metals required by the high-tech sector. and lastly, if Canada is serious about winning opportunities in this domain, lobbying firms, such as ourselves, Samuel associates, we act. An intermediary or a speaking partner, between companies and the federal government in conjunction with industry associations to influence a favorable economic outcome for Canadian business. The bottom line is yes, there is opportunity now and we should seize the moment.

Moderator 7:55

Goran unfortunately we're down to our final few minutes, probably another 25 questions we could ask you, but, we're down to our final few. Let's move into a lightning round if we could. First question should be expected. Long war of attrition in Ukraine, or should we expect a negotiated settlement?

Goran Samuel Pesic 8:12

Uh, peace is always preferred to war. I mean, for both sides, nobody wins in war. Everyone wins in.

Moderator 8:19

What are Canada's strategic advantages as seen from the perspective of other countries,

Goran Samuel Pesic 8:25

first proximity to the United States. Secondly, a well-functioning safe and predictable political and economic environment. And thirdly, we are still a place of opportunity where in my opinion, merit hard work access to a good education can help individuals and families advance through social structure.

Moderator 8:45

Does the world get more dangerous before it gets less dangerous or vice versa?

Goran Samuel Pesic 8:50

The world has always been a dangerous place, in the rise of new weapons and artificial intelligence that we just alluded makes it even a more procurious place.

Moderator 8:59

We spent a lot of time talking about Russia and perhaps China, where does terrorism fit?

Goran Samuel Pesic 9:06

Terrorism is still a factor, and it's changing. It's changing in the sense that, technology is also changing. also if the world is looking only to the Ukraine or to other conflicts and is not looking to terrorism, he gives the terrorists the opportunity to strike out us again. So this is an area that we must not let our guard down

Moderator 9:28

what's the last book you read that you'd recommend to our listeners?

Goran Samuel Pesic 9:32

Oh, I would recommend the age of artificial intelligence for all your listeners. It's by a us statesman and former national security advisor, Henry Kissinger, he re. packs a punch in this book. And I think that all of your readers, whether you are there in the financial sector, whether they're in the commercial sector and the government sector or military sector, I think this book is a, is a must read for everybody

Moderator 9:56

going to remind us how prospective clients can reach you, your firm to access your insights.

Goran Samuel Pesic 10:02

Robert, we can be reached online@samuel.associates or via LinkedIn.

Moderator 10:07

Goran Samuel Pesach, CEO of Samuel. Thank you very much for sharing your insights with us on Canadian equities.

Goran Samuel Pesic 10:14

Thank you very much for your time today, Robert.

10:19

Note that this podcast is not making an investment recommendation on any companies discussed. We welcome your comments on today's episode or any other episode. Connect with us at Acumen Capital dot com.