Talking Property - The Year Ahead for Sydney Property

SQM Research's Louis Christopher previews the next Financial Year for the Sydney Property Market. In this insightful analysis, Christopher covers off on: 

• the RBA's next rate move 
• the challenges facing the property market 
• the tailwinds supporting prices 
• an outline of the 12 months ahead for buyers, sellers and landlords 
• the impact of geopolitical events 
• the collapse in Stamp Duty revenue for State Governments and 
• much more... 

 These insights will benefit anyone buying, selling or leasing in the next Financial Year.

As always if there is a specific topic you would like for us to cover, please reach out and let us know!    

Transcript

Why Take A 12 Month View

SPEAKER_01 0:05

Welcome to Talking Property. Today I'm joined by Australia's best property analyst Louis Christopher, and we're going to uh take a deep dive into what the next 12 months brings for the Sydney property market. Louis, thanks as always for joining us. Nice to be with you once again, Peter. Louis, when we catch up at this time of year normally, we ask you in this segment to take a look at what the Sydney property market is going to do between July and Christmas. Yes. Given the magnitude of events and what is happening in the world that we live in, I just want to go a little bit further this year and get your view. I'm not asking you or nailing you down on any forecast, but get your view and take a look at what's likely to determine the Sydney property market over the next 12 months rather than the next six. I think for anyone that is looking to trade, taking a slightly longer view is probably they're going to be better off by doing so rather than transacting in the moment, if you like. What do you see happening over the next 12 months, Louis?

SPEAKER_00 1:02

Okay, so firstly for this current calendar year, we have a we have an official forecast out there, and that is that Sydney housing prices will fall for this calendar year compared to 2025 of somewhere between 7 to 9 percent. That's uh now that was revised, as you recall, uh with uh your audience back in November 2025. We were initially forecasting very slow, low single-digit growth for Sydney. But of course, events changed all that, and so we had to revise our forecasts, and we did quickly revise our forecasts on the outbreak of the Middle East War and then revise them again on the news of the property taxation changes. Unfortunately, in forecasting, Peter, these X factors that come along. Yeah, you you can't always predict them, but what you should do as a forecaster is take them into account and let your audience uh be aware of a revised thinking that you've got based on events which have occurred that were not foreseeing.

SPEAKER_01 2:05

Look, I I agree, and I see on social media people will look at a forecast that someone's had, you know, in simple terms on the first of January and try and beat them over the head in December because they got it wrong. Yeah. Um but we're always subject to events.

SPEAKER_00 2:19

We're always subject to events. Uh now we do scenarios, uh, and uh look, I think so long as people forecasters are transparent and they come out with the revision and make it clear that it's a revision. Unfortunately, some of the banks don't do it this way. They come out as though like this is a new forecast when all they've done is just a simple revision. So I don't I don't appreciate uh how some do this disingenuously. But yeah, this is a reality. We need to do events, and that's the reason why I do scenario forecasting to try and take into account some of the possible events out there in the market. And so when we think forward to your question, next 12 months from here, from mid-year 2026 to mid-year 2027, what can we expect? What are some of the driving forces? Firstly, we will have this adjustment due to the property taxation changes continue. Rental yields will continue to rise, but it will be ongoing beyond the next 12 months. In our view, keeping everything else equal, uh, we we expect this adjustment period to last somewhere north of two years, maybe two to three years. Everything else will not be equal. I can assure you, something's going to change over that time frame, whether it's a rise in interest rates or a fall in interest rates, the end of a war, the beginning of a war, the announcement of aliens, who knows, right? Yeah, something is going to change. It's going to be an X factor. So let's think about the possible X factors that are out there.

SPEAKER_01 3:44

We'll work through them. We'll come up with our market headwinds and our uh on our first slide here, if you like.

SPEAKER_00 3:49

Geopolitically,

Oil Inflation And The Rate Path

SPEAKER_00 3:50

what do you what do you see happening there? I see tensions continue in the Middle East, like they always have, but they've simmered down a little bit of late. Interestingly, oil prices have really fallen. We're now back to levels recorded prior to the outbreak of the Middle East war. This is an important point, Peter, in my view, because the driver of this potential new outbreak of inflation was a rise in energy prices driven by big rises in oil prices. Oil prices did go up. There were concerns about shortages, and we briefly had some. But since essentially the month of May, oil prices have settled and have been more recently coming way off back to where we are now. That will have an impact upon our headline CPI eventually, Peter. And I think we can expect a lower annual read on the CPI as we head towards the last quarter of 2026. This may well then have ramifications for interest rates. Yes, indeed. Probabilities of an interest rate cut have been actually rising, more so than, say, another interest rate rise. Now, I don't think an interest rate cut is coming anytime soon. But could we get an interest rate cut sometime, say, late this year or in 2027? Yeah, we could.

SPEAKER_01 5:15

Do you see any further hikes? Like if you read that last statement, what did you make about the RBA's June 22 state?

SPEAKER_00 5:24

Central bank was still pretty hawkish. Yes. They did flag that the economy was slowing down. Um and of course, their mandate is to try and as as best they possibly can keep a stable economy with full employment. If we get another bad read on unemployment, we're going to be starting to talk about a material economic slowdown occurring in this country.

SPEAKER_01 5:53

Did we jump from 4.1 to 4.5? Yes, we did. Yeah, just in one in one month, and we're waiting for the next number.

SPEAKER_00 5:59

And this is interesting because people are not aware that when you go into a real economic slowdown, like for example, the 1990 recession. Back in the 1990 recession, unemployment went from about 5% to about 9% in the space of about seven months. Wow. Like it happened really quickly. Were you seeing the same sorts of things in this economy? I'm definitely seeing job losses. Yes. Driven in part by AI, driven in part by the lack of confidence in the economy. Remember, consumer sentiment is like at 1990 lightly. It's as bad as what it was in 1990. There is a risk of a contraction in the economy. For the March quarter, we grew at just 0.3%, and on a per capita basis, we went backwards. Not the first time we've been going backwards on a per capita basis, but we only grew by 0.3%. When the June quarter re comes out, that'll take into account the full effects of the Middle East War, the rises we had, the plummeting in confidence, a fall in housing prices. I wouldn't be surprised if for the June quarter we'll record a contraction.

SPEAKER_01 7:02

Which sets up a potential s recession scenario if uh if things don't turn around from there.

SPEAKER_00 7:07

And that will be playing on the RBA's mind. And and I I'm sure we've said this in previous discussions. Uh when you have a situation of stagflation.

SPEAKER_01 7:16

Oh, yes, we have discussed the information, yeah.

SPEAKER_00 7:19

Central banks are cornered. They're cornered. They're damned if they do, they're damned if they do. And they don't. It's a very hard position to be in in terms of trying to set monetary policy. But if you also take the view, okay, oil prices are coming down, that's going to perhaps um stabilize the CPA, the CPI in time, the RBA may well then have uh amplitude to cut rates.

SPEAKER_01 7:43

Yeah, so let's take a look at some of the tailwinds coming in to 2027. And this is why today we wanted to take a 12-month view of things rather than six months, because what you have outlined there is if if we do start seriously hitting the rocks, uh the RBA, and this is a big point, the RBA have now given themselves scope and room to move, haven't they?

SPEAKER_00 8:04

Yeah, they have. By way of cutting back. That's exactly right. And what is also interesting, okay, with a cash rate 4.35 percent. That um is equal to the last peak that we had with interest rate settings when interest rates were risen in 2023. That's right, yes. So I think and you know, the Reserve Bank got a bit of a slowdown in the economy as a result of those interest rate rises. So they'll be aware of that, they'll be conscious of that, that that was a point last time where they achieved what they wanted to achieve. I think the probabilities have increased that uh the RBA may stay on pause for now, and the probabilities have increased that perhaps later this year and in 2027 we'll see a rate cut. Now, what could throw all that away? CPI just keeps on rising. That there's been a major multiplier effect due to the energy prices into food prices, into rents.

SPEAKER_01 8:55

We know rents are still rising, and into the because they form part of the CPI basket.

SPEAKER_00 9:02

Correct. Yeah. Uh electricity prices, of course. Uh so the here and now is that there's still upward pressure on the CPI.

SPEAKER_01 9:10

Of the things you have just mentioned there, I think electricity is the one that's most likely to continue driving inflation, isn't it?

SPEAKER_00 9:17

Yeah. Energy. Housing costs as well. Uh rents, of course, feed into the housing cost bucket along with construction costs, which have still been rising. Uh, and then, of course, you've been having some uh big wage rises in the public services sector, um, as well as uh the um the affordable end, for lack of better words, of the employment market.

Jobs Confidence And Stagflation Risk

SPEAKER_02 9:40

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 9:40

Just on employment, I I saw Warren Hogan speak straight after the budget. Yeah. Noted economist, and he which was really interesting, and he gave his view on the budget. But when it came to employment, he had a view that we won't see a sharp rise in unemployment. What his view with employment was, and I'm keen for your take on this, is that um we we need to retrain our workforce. It's not that we have too many workers for the economy at large, it's that people are not trained for the jobs that are out there or wanting to do the jobs that are out there. What's your view on that?

SPEAKER_00 10:16

Well, there is a shortage of workers over in on the construction side. So we we know that. And in part the migration policies that we have had have failed. They were meant to increase uh uh you know, reduce the pressure on skilled shortages. Hasn't happened. So we've seen too many people run into banking and IT and Yeah, look, on the AI front, uh I think there is job creation opportunities there. Uh but it's also the case that there have been job losses. More so, the biggest impact upon unemployment is the uh consumer confidence numbers of people spending in the shops. And we all know right now confidence is at a very low ebb. Uh so I'm not into Campbell, Warren Hogan, thinking like unemployment won't rise much further. I think uh unless uh interest rates are cut, there's more stimulus in the economy, I think it will rise.

Supply Shortages And Crash Scenarios

SPEAKER_01 11:08

It's hard to see where new housing en masse is going to come from uh in the short term. Um do you think the limited new supply uh will help support property prices and potentially set up the next uh you know the next uh I won't call it a boom, but the next growth cycle.

SPEAKER_00 11:26

Yeah, look, uh there's been increasing discussion uh of a housing price possible housing price crash. Uh I don't think what we're in is a housing price crash. It's not to say it's not a meaningful correction, it is. We're missing one key ingredient for a housing price crash to happen, and that is we we do not have a surplus of properties out there. It shows up in the rental vacancy rates. When you look at Japan, when you look at Ireland, when you look at the United States, they all exhibited one major ingredient, and that was that there was speculative building beforehand, before the crash, and that's what toppled the market in many respects, along with interest rate rise.

SPEAKER_01 12:05

You could probably throw China in there now. Their property market's under severe pressure. Exactly. Evergrande collapsed, ghost cities.

SPEAKER_00 12:12

Along with demographic changes. I mean, the the US housing price boom and then crash, uh, in all that, you didn't see very strong population growth in the United States. You saw a lot of building growth, a lot of loose lending, of course, uh caused that calamity. In China, of course, they're having now uh negative population. And of course, we all know with the Japanese bubble and bust, that was a combination of speculative lending, once again, building, strong building, but then a demographic change where their population went backwards. Now, to that point, I'll give you another scenario for us to all consider. Let's consider for a moment one nation wins federal government, and they bring in the harder migration changes that they've put forward. So that is uh they want to cut migration down to 130,000 a year. Uh, and that means that total population expansion would be somewhere along the lines of 230,000 from just shy of 500,000 we've got now. If that were to happen and at the same time they bring in negative gearing and you get a building boom, there is a risk that if those policy changes happen quickly and aggressively, we could have another round of housing price falls. If you see a rise in supply, um a relative fall in underlying demand to supply, which does uh increase affordable housing, but you could see housing price falls in that scenario.

SPEAKER_01 13:46

Look, I know um when we spoke a couple of weeks ago uh off air, uh another stat that Warren Hogan rolled out further to that point, which you were not surprised about and probably already knew, but I think a lot of people would be surprised about, is the uh immigration rate into Australia is higher than the natural birth rate. Oh, it is. By a long shot. We are we uh we we by a long shot. To what degree, Louis? It's by like three to one. Three to one. Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 14:15

So we're in we're importing or uh it used to be up to five to one, and then things have slowed down a little bit, but yeah, it's still minimum three to one.

SPEAKER_01 14:23

How do you think the Australian nation feel about that? Well, they're pissed off about it, quite frankly. Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 14:29

A lot of people are.

SPEAKER_01 14:30

Um We're not the only country doing it either, are we?

SPEAKER_00 14:33

In terms of OECD countries, we've we've had the highest proportion of migration intake compared to population growth uh uh in many respects. So it's um yeah, I mean Europe's had, of course, an increase in migration which they've been scaling back of late. We haven't been really scaling back materially. It has come off from its peaks, but it's still well above the COVID, uh the pre-COVID numbers.

SPEAKER_01 14:59

Now, changing tact, the opposition leader, Angus Taylor, yeah, says that if he is elected, and not you've outlined a scenario there if Pauline was elected, yeah. But Angus Taylor is saying that if the coalition are elected and in government, they will effectively rip up the budget and rev and reverse it. Is that easier said than done, or is that a plausible scenario? How how it depends what happens in the Senate, doesn't it? Well, it's going to pass because the Greens are like the government.

SPEAKER_00 15:29

Oh, no, it will pass, but let's assume that okay, one nation get up, order libs, win the next election. Okay. So they uh we know that these property taxation changes are going to pass the Senate. So it's all about the Senate. So who can the next election, who's going to control the Senate? So, okay, if you have one nation saying they're going to reverse course with the property taxation changes, you get the Liberal National Party saying the same thing, that's fine. What's going to happen in the Senate? Because if they don't have control of the Senate, if the if the harder left still have control of the Senate, these things won't pass. Their amendments, their repeals will not get through. What do you see happening? I don't know.

SPEAKER_01 16:10

You're the political expert over in me, mate. Louis, the government's been its own worst anyway when it comes to spending and creating inflation in the economy. Um the NDIS has been the big um, you know, uh target for those that are saying you need to get this uh program under control.

SPEAKER_00 16:25

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 16:25

One of the things that I think a lot of people uh are not as conscious of as certain states, Victoria because they're heading towards an election, and WA because they're running a surplus, have got excess spending happening. Are we seeing any evidence that uh that governments are cutting back to help reduce the inflation problem?

SPEAKER_00 16:44

I

Stamp Duty Stress And Sales Turnover

SPEAKER_00 16:45

think there is a notion of wishing to cut back. Uh, but selling with the state governments and the um uh recent property taxation changes, one they've got a major revenue problem on their hands right now. So uh we know stamp duty revenues, which is a a huge component of the revenue intake for every state government, is going to come back at a rate of knots for FY27. My view is we're going to see property sales turnover fall somewhere between 20 to 30 percent. And I'll be interested in hearing what you're seeing on the ground if you think sales turnover is uh going to fall by that type of level compared to, say, FY26.

SPEAKER_01 17:23

Oh look, that's a really interesting point that you raised because what we're seeing in the real estate industry at the moment is we're seeing certain agents whose sales volumes are going up, not prices, but they're selling more than they've ever sold at the moment. But that's not showing up in the auction clearance rates. But then there's other agents, uh competitors that I'm looking at, and I've never seen them sell so few.

SPEAKER_00 17:48

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 17:49

Now, one of the things that I've been advising my clients is the auction clearance rate should not be used as the sole determinant of the market performance because a lot of the properties that are failing at auction are going on to sell afterwards, is my sense. Um and our own sales volumes in the last uh four months through this period of upheaval, sales volumes have gone up for us, uh, which has been a bit of a pleasant surprise.

SPEAKER_00 18:16

Maybe you're just a good salesman, Peter, and your team, uh which they are. Uh I do believe sales volume is going to fall away.

SPEAKER_01 18:24

Well, you're you're seeing the data.

SPEAKER_00 18:26

I'm seeing the data. So you would know. And we're also seeing a big rise in old listings.

SPEAKER_01 18:31

Yes.

SPEAKER_00 18:32

Um, going back to the point, all the way back to government expenditure, uh, the point being on this is that the revenue side for each of the state governments is going to take a big hit. Uh, and I see now that they're finally adjusting. I think on the expenditure side, I was very disappointed that the deal was done with the Greens, where essentially a review of the National Disability Affordability Scheme was going to basically delay cuts that need to be done there. Uh and that tells me that, you know, is the Federal Government really serious about cutting expenditure? When it comes to macroecon economy issues, I'm a little bit more of a libertarian, and I believe that spending, government spending needs to be reined in.

SPEAKER_01 19:21

Can we also highlight that we're not against helping people in need? No, no. Because I hold the same view. No, no. We're talking about the rorts here.

SPEAKER_00 19:29

We're talking we're talking about the rorts, but the worts have just gone out of control.

SPEAKER_01 19:33

Oh, absolutely they have.

SPEAKER_00 19:34

And uh so there is a meaningful saving to be had if the government can can get on top of the of the rorts.

SPEAKER_01 19:40

Trevor Burrus, Jr. It beggars belief that they they haven't been tougher and stronger and more earnest in this space.

SPEAKER_00 19:45

Correct. And it's a worry. You know, it's like you've got to ask yourself, well, why? But nevertheless, um government expenditure as a proportion of GDP has been rising and rising and rising in this country. So, in other words, government as a slice of the overall economic pie has been taking more, more of our tax dollars. And you know, these property taxation changes reflect that. And they've been spending more. And I argue that government as an entity, whether it's Labour or Liberal, whoever else, is a bit of an inefficient entity. And so, in an ideal world, you want the private sector, you want the community to uh take charge of their own expenditure, of their own output rather than government doing it for them. Because government's an inefficient entity.

SPEAKER_01 20:32

On that point, New South Wales Treasurer Dan Daniel Mookie gets a bit of a tick in today's financial review. He did his budget uh yesterday at the time of recording, and on the home page here of the FIN Review, as you can see, New South Wales Treasurer Daniel Mookie is doing a better job at containing spending than the than other governments and helping to fight inflation.

SPEAKER_00 20:51

So you would know this. So tell me, the Labour government, the State Labor government, the managers of the State Labor government, are they from the right faction of the Labour Party or from the left, or is it a mix?

SPEAKER_01 21:04

Uh I would say right.

SPEAKER_00 21:06

They are.

SPEAKER_01 21:06

Well, that might explain it a bit more then. And I think if you speak to most non-political people but who know what's going on, they will say a right wing government performs best when it leans into the left. Yeah. Think Gladys. Yeah. And they will think a um left-wing government performs best when it leans into the right, think Hawk Keating and what you're seeing now in New South Wales, where if an election were held tomorrow, you would think that uh you know the the Labor government would be returning to the U.S.

SPEAKER_00 21:38

The State Labor government would get it. Well, I the election in New South Wales is 2027. Um yeah, nevertheless, going to this point. Okay, so yeah, New South Wales uh may be doing better than, say, the uh national average in containing spending. Federal Labor not doing as well. Uh no question about that. And and there are random. For the economy in terms of productivity as a result. But it is interesting, state uh the budget came out because I note I noted they've now flagged that they're going to see uh a revenue shortfall and stamp duty revenues. And uh a few weeks back I did make that publicly known that this would be an outcome, and the state treasurer kind of shot me down over that point at the time. So I'm glad to see he's changed his tune.

SPEAKER_01 22:25

Uh it was good when he gave the uh the grab to the six o'clock news, but it didn't stand up to reality in uh in a very short time. No, it did not. Yeah.

When The RBA Reacts To Housing

SPEAKER_01 22:33

Louis, the the public have been hit with mixed messages at the moment about what the next move in interest rates might be. If you look at our uh next two slides here, uh on the one hand, you've got um major banks starting to tweak their longer-term interest rates down, and then um when you look at the RBA uh statement um on June 22 after their last meeting, um there was a sense from that statement that they might need to dial rates up. Um, what do we make of this? Are we a chance of seeing another quick rate hike to really break the inflation and then they start cutting? Um where do you see interest rates over the next 12 months?

SPEAKER_00 23:09

There is a risk of a short-term interest rate rise, but as mentioned before, the probabilities have increased of an interest rate cut later in the year and into 2027, driven by potentially a contracting economy.

SPEAKER_01 23:22

So the RBA would be fully attuned to all of this and they wouldn't want to give people a sense there's rate cuts coming prematurely because they probably regret particularly that third cut in 2025, yeah?

SPEAKER_00 23:34

Yeah, yeah, that that is correct. So they they will want to still have the message out there, and they might do it just by jaw boning from here on that you know we need the inflation is still too high and they need to get it down. We need to get it down. But uh the yeah, just merely the threat of another interest rate rise might do the job. And indeed we know, as we've discussed, there's been a collapse in consumer confidence.

SPEAKER_01 24:00

Any jaw boning from the RBA here would be extremely effective because the market is on tilt, isn't it? The economy is on tilt. Absolutely. Now, to that point, um the RBA have said property prices are not their problem. It's not their remit. We're here to manage uh uh price stability and uh unemployed you know the employment rate in the economy, and house prices are well down the list. But it's a big issue.

SPEAKER_00 24:26

Funnily enough, though they sure seem to talk about housing a lot.

SPEAKER_01 24:29

They certainly do. So that's why I wanted to come to this today. This is um by Sydney's standards um and certainly by Melbourne's historical standards, this is this is a nasty downturn. Um is it a technical correction or a crash? I'll leave that to others to decide. But this is nasty and the foreseeable future suggests it's going to get a lot tougher. When and if do the RBA become concerned about what's happening in the housing market and act accordingly, or will they be, you know, completely dismissive of any price action in the property market?

SPEAKER_00 25:02

What they'll likely do is they'll frame it in a way in terms of how housing is impacting upon the economy, which is where they need to set monetary policy. So this is how they're going to frame it. And so they'll frame it saying, okay, there's been a big fall in housing construction, which is causing a rise in job losses, as an example. So they'll try and link it back to their jobs. They'll link it back to the economy. They've always been cautious about trying to uh link uh particularly interest rate rise or cut due to what's going on with the housing market. Notwithstanding, if I recall back in 2002, um E. McFarlane did precisely that. He intervened in a big way in his commentary, didn't he? He intervened in a big way. He he talked about the housing bubble, the housing boom that we're having from 2001, uh, and he was lifting interest rates accordingly.

SPEAKER_01 25:51

Louis, here we are, July 2026. Um we sit down with you uh July 2027. Um what do you think you'll be telling us um the last 12 months bought at that point in time?

SPEAKER_00 26:03

More turmoil in the housing market. Uh but a bit of a settling of the shock and awe. The adjustment still occurring, ongoing rises in rents, but investors being offered a higher rental yield, which will start encouraging encouraging them to come back into the market.

SPEAKER_01 26:22

Oh, great. So 12 months' time you think will be closer to positively or neutrally geared properties that will turn.

SPEAKER_00 26:28

We'll be closer to equilibrium in the market, and some of the shock and all will be gone.

SPEAKER_01 26:32

Now, um spelling it out for for our audience, um, when you talk about closer to equilibrium, you can get there three ways higher rents, falling prices, or a bit of both? Which do you see happening?

SPEAKER_00 26:44

Definitely a bit of both.

SPEAKER_01 26:45

Yes, okay.

SPEAKER_00 26:46

Uh and no, at the moment it's more so on a housing price falls front than um rises in rents. So we are getting rises in rents, don't correct me. Don't uh you know, don't mistake me there. Uh but yeah, it's for now it's it's on the well it's certainly the news has been on the falls in housing prices.

SPEAKER_01 27:04

And politically speaking, I don't want to put you on on the spot here, but um the government have shown um uh no sense of of listening to the outrage about their budget. Um do you think they've got the fortitude when the backbench start chirping to go shoulder to the wheel and hold the line for the next 12 months on this budget and the measures?

SPEAKER_00 27:25

You know, Peter, I think it's interesting that we're now getting the housing minister and uh Tanya Plebisek, the old housing minister back in 2009, talk more and more about housing prices and the corrections and trying to defend it and trying not to link it to the property taxation changes. To me, that's a sign that the government could be starting to crack. Yeah, and that the pressure is well and truly on them. And I still don't think the government's going to change tune. Um, and once this passes the House, it'll be hard harder to reverse it because the Greens may well block any type of reversal. Um But let's just remember Keating did reverse course on the negative gearing changes when it was obvious that uh it was causing acceleration in rents.

SPEAKER_01 28:15

Have we got a sense uh in anything that's been leaked or released, have we got a sense of whether this was, and it rarely is, this was a joint decision by Albanese and Chalmers, or has one sort of imposed themselves over the other to get this budget through?

SPEAKER_00 28:34

I I don't know. But what I do know, Peter, is that it's been on Labor's agenda for negative gearing changes since at least the 2016. So it's in their DNA. It's been in their DNA for at least the last ten years now.

SPEAKER_01 28:45

If you had to make a call now, does Anthony Albanese contest the next election or or step aside?

SPEAKER_00 28:51

I I I I don't know what he's going to do. I all I know is He can't be overthrown.

SPEAKER_01 28:55

Yeah, it's very hard, isn't it?

SPEAKER_00 28:57

It's very hard to for a Labour Prime Minister now to be overthrown. So uh look, if I was having a betting man, he'll go down with the sinking ship.

SPEAKER_01 29:06

If I was a betting man, um which I'm prone to do at times, um I would say he's gonna step aside.

SPEAKER_00 29:11

Oh well, there you go.

SPEAKER_01 29:13

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 29:13

We'll see what happens. They've got we've got two years until the next election.

SPEAKER_01 29:16

He saw his good mate Keir Starmer squeezed out this week.

SPEAKER_00 29:20

That's true. There is a chance. Uh and maybe there will be people tapping on his shoulder saying, Do you really want one nation to lead this country? Do you re- is that what you want? That's what's going to happen.

SPEAKER_01 29:30

And that's what you're seeing. You're seeing one nation.

SPEAKER_00 29:32

Yeah, that's correct. Now, I I have my own views on what a one nation government would look like, and I I take the view it it won't be a very disciplined government, and then you probably would see then a swing back to the Liberal National Party. That's a long-term view. But we'll see.

SPEAKER_01 29:46

They say that betting markets are in in many ways more accurate than polls for those that are interested, as it stands, to be the Prime Minister after the next election. Anthony Albanese is a dollar eighty.

SPEAKER_00 29:56

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 29:56

Angus Taylor's $8.50. Yeah. And Pauline's somewhere in the mid threes. So remarkable times. Oh, remarkable times indeed. Yeah, indeed. Louis, uh outstanding uh rap on um on what's coming up in the next 12 months, and we look forward to uh speaking with you next time. Looking forward to it.