Our Way Too Soon Predictions for F1 2026

It's time! Brian and Patrick have seen enough, heard enough, read enough. We are ready to deliver our predictions for the F1 2026 season. It's all here. Driver champion, Constructor, streaks broken, first win, best rookie, first to be sacked, and more. 

Plus! Our script for the F1 the Movie sequel. 

And as always, thank you for listening to everybody's most beloved father and son F1 podcast!  

Transcript

Brian S Hall (00:01)
Watching the Olympics—Lindsey Vonn crashed out. Tough. She’s like 40. She’s had more surgery than those little sick kids in those commercials. I don’t know. That’s commitment.

I remember Lance had that bad accident a few years ago. It was like, “Is he dead?” And he’s like, “No, I’m gonna take a couple weeks off.” Imagine caring about something that much. Just getting back in the car. Dang, that’s something.

Patrick (00:24)
Ha.

Brian S Hall (00:31)
Alright, you ready to go?

Patrick (00:32)
I’m ready to go.

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Intro

Brian S Hall (00:35)
Hello and welcome to Hard Compile, the American take on Formula One. At long last, it is time—time for our much-too-soon F1 2026 predictions.

Testing is over. We had the bogus Barcelona testing, the official official Bahrain testing. I think that’s all we need. I think we can make predictions for the entire 2026 season.

Alright, Patrick. Who has the best car?

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Best Car

Patrick (01:13)
We don’t even need to run the season. We know exactly what’s going to happen.

Best car? I think most people expect Mercedes. They have the most resources, the most money. Everything is basically in-house. They supply power units to multiple teams. Last time there was a big regulations overhaul, they nailed it.

So we expect Mercedes. But based on what we’ve seen and what people are saying, I think Mercedes and the Ford–Red Bull team are close.

I’ll say Mercedes has the best car—but not 2014-level dominant.

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Brian S Hall (02:59)
If Mercedes has the best power unit, that’s huge. McLaren’s been running it—they won the Constructors the last two years. But if Ford and Red Bull, essentially new engine entrants, are up there? That’s impressive.

Christian Horner was instrumental in that. I’m skeptical, though. We don’t really know much. Everyone’s lying.

“Lewis had the best sim run.”
“Kimi looked great.”
“George looks good.”
“Charles says Max has it.”

They’re all lying equally.

There was that story about John Owen leaving Mercedes. Maybe that’s a tell. But for 15 years, they’ve been dominant or competitive.

I’ll go with you. Mercedes.

Lando seems happy—and he’s got that Mercedes power unit.

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Drivers’ Championship

Brian S Hall
Who wins Drivers’?

Patrick (05:02)
If Mercedes has the best car, George has a shot.

But how do you discount Max?

I’m going Max in 2026.

And that cements his legacy as the best ever.

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Brian S Hall (06:07)
I agree. Max is the best driver on the grid—and by a lot. If he has a competitive car, I don’t see George or Lando or Oscar or Kimi beating him.

He almost won 2025 with a bad car.

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Constructors’ Championship

Patrick (06:47)
If Max wins Drivers’, I think Red Bull wins Constructors’. I think Hadjar outscores Kimi.

So I’ll go Red Bull.

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Brian S Hall (07:18)
Interesting. I actually agree. Hadjar won’t have the “second Red Bull curse.” He’s young, talented, new regs.

If Red Bull wins Constructors and Mercedes is second, Ferrari third—that’s three different power unit manufacturers. That’s exactly what F1 wants.

Audi, Cadillac, GM, Ford, Honda—it’s good for the sport.

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First-Time Winner

Patrick (08:56)
Of drivers without a win? I’ll say Hadjar. I expect him to get one.

I don’t know if I expect Kimi to win yet.

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Brian S Hall (09:58)
I’ll go Hadjar too. And maybe Kimi. And maybe Albon.

Williams looked better late last year. Albon might be due.

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Patrick (10:16)
I’m not buying Williams yet.

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Lewis Hamilton at Ferrari

Brian S Hall (10:34)
Lewis had zero podiums in 2025. Still insane.

Does he get a podium in 2026?

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Patrick (11:30)
Yes.

Over 23 races, with a competitive car, Lewis Hamilton gets a podium. After a rough year, I think he finds one.

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Brian S Hall (12:31)
He’s had influence on this car. If he doesn’t win or Charles beats him, that’s not a good sign.

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Fernando Alonso

Brian S Hall (14:09)
Does Alonso get a win?

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Patrick (14:19)
I don’t believe in the car.

Honda historically struggles first year of new regs. Alonso didn’t look happy in Bahrain. When Alonso’s not happy, something’s wrong.

I don’t see it.

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New Teams: Cadillac & Audi

Brian S Hall (21:12)
Will Cadillac or Audi finish last?

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Patrick (21:30)
No. I think they’ll finish ahead of Alpine.

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Brian S Hall
Will either get a podium?

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Patrick (23:04)
It’s possible. Weird races happen.

Hülkenberg got one last year. If the car’s decent, over a long season, anything can happen.

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Driver Lineup Shakeups

Patrick (25:50)
Colapinto could be at risk. Alpine wants headlines.

And if Bottas underperforms at Cadillac, I wouldn’t be shocked if he doesn’t finish the season.

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Longest Podium Streaks

Active streaks:
• Max – 10 years
• Charles – 7
• Carlos – 7
• Lando – 6
• George – 5
• Oscar – 3

Patrick
Most likely to lose it? Carlos.

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Brian S Hall
Same.

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F1: The Movie 2

Brian S Hall
They’re making a sequel.

Prequel? NASCAR crossover? Office-style mockumentary?

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Patrick
If they make it ridiculous on purpose, it could work.

Fast & Furious-level crazy. Race on the moon.

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Crazy Predictions

Patrick
Here’s mine:

Max, Lewis, and Alonso all leave after 2026.

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Brian S Hall
That would create chaos.

Here’s mine:
• F1 Golden Ticket contest—fan travels to every race.
• Fred Vasseur out at Ferrari, Vettel takes over.
• By 2030, NASCAR-style playoff system in F1.
• By 2030, Cadillac launches U.S.-based driver development led by Montoya and Button.
• Alonso still racing while half the grid wasn’t born when he debuted.

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Season Top 10 Predictions (Condensed)

Brian’s Top Finishers:
1. George
2. Max
3. Oscar
4. Lando
5. Charles
6. Kimi
7. Lewis
8. Hadjar
9. Bearman
10. Alonso
11. Lawson

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Patrick’s Top Finishers:
1. Max
2. George
3. Charles
4. Hadjar
5. Lando
6. Lewis
7. Piastri
8. Perez
9. Lawson
10. Kimi
11. Carlos

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Outro

Brian S Hall (53:08)
Send questions to ourcompoundpod@gmail.com.

Thank you for listening to everybody’s most beloved father-and-son F1 podcast.

We are lights out.

Patrick
See ya. Thanks for listening.