An Early Look at The Guineas

A left-field take on the upcoming Newmarket Classics, giving (hopefully) a new angle in to both races

....and if not, well there's a gothic metal reference in there for the music onanists!

Twitter @RacingWhat

Transcript

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Summer breeze makes me feel fine. Blowing through the jasmine in my mind. Okay, well, there we go. My homage to the Isley Brothers or type O negative if you're a little bit more into Doom Gothic black metal. They did a really good cover of the Eisley Brothers classic. But that's with the summer now upon us. And with a big warm welcome to uh episode 13. Yep, episode 13 of the Rap Podcast Series 2. Been kicking this out since January, and this is the 13th episode since January. So thanks very much indeed for showing up for this particular cast. And let's get into it. It's been a funny old couple of weeks since my last cast, which was all about the Grand National. I think it's sort of pretty safe to come out of hibernation now. I swore I wouldn't get into Flame Wars online with all the Anties and all the negative people that were coming out the woodwork, decrying the Grand National. I got it in the neck from both sides. I thought the National should be quietly done away with, nobody enjoys it. The Anties really got on my tit more than somewhat with their ill-founded, ill-thought-out diatribes against the sport. And it's a tough gig being me and running this podcast and having an online presence. You know, I'm I'm one minute I'm having Gary Linnock around for catcher, what notteries and brioche, and the next minute I'm supposedly machine gunning Tommy Robinson's latest statement in Braille into the Wars of the New Statesman. I'm sort of left wing to some or right wing to others, and I get it in the neck from both sides. So let's walk quietly away now from the national hunt season, albeit that there is action as I put this podcast out there at Pungestown. Good quality stuff. Marine Nationale has done its stuff over Ille et Tomps. But no, no, we must not go down that particular route because it's the summer. And the 2000 and 1,000 guineas are upon us shortly. And I'm so looking forward to getting it into the flat for the next six, seven months or so. It's going to be fun. It always is. And and it started off pretty excitingly. There's been some really good trials for the Guineas. We've seen some interesting two-year-olds out already, and we've seen some interesting trial trials already, albeit early days yet, for the Derby and the Oaks. So there's lots of good quality flat horses doing their stuff. Yeah, it wets the appetite good and proper for the new flat season. This cast is one of two. I'm going to be looking at the 2,000 and 1,000 guineas. We don't know what the final declarations are going to be. This is going out on Tuesday evening. But we can have a little bit of a gander at potential runners and riders, and I'll do a cast probably on Friday looking at final declarations and certainly the wider card for Saturday, where I hope to be going. And they're putting on nine races, which is going to be brilliant. And um maybe have a quick look at Sunday's card as well. But today is going to be a look at the 2000 and the 1000 guineas in a little bit more depth. I want to try and get across the notion of something different, a different angle to your punting. Betting on well, we're betting on racing and betting on sports events is a negative expectation experience. What do I mean by that? Well, if you're an investor in the stock market, the more people that are of your mind, the more people that buy the stock, the more valuable it becomes, the higher the price, and the more money you're going to make. So, you know, the bigger the crowd, the more the profit you're going to get. That is entirely the opposite with horse racing in my case here, sports betting in the wider world in general. Because obviously, you know, the more people there are on a particular horse, the more the price is going to collapse, the less the payback if that horse wins. Why am I making this distinction? Well, because you have therefore, as a clued up savvy punter, got to come up with different angles into a race that you're potentially having a bet on. With that in mind, let's get into the guts of what today is all about. And that is to try and give you a different insight into the two big classics this weekend: the 2000 guineas on Saturday, 1000 guineas on Sunday. I'm going to, as is my want, as I have done in the past, look at breeding and particularly splicing up the two races via the dosage profiling that I've talked about several times in the past, and putting my hands up. The last time I did this was for the Brocklesby steaks at the start of the flat season, and that was next to useless. Two horses that I flagged up, I think came last and certainly in the second half of the field. That does not invalidate this as an approach, however. If you want to know what I'm talking about with dosage profiling, go back and look at episode 5 of the rap podcast that I put out in 2021, wherein I did an in-depth take on breeding dosage profiling of the scent ledger in September 2021. Go back out and have a listen to episode 5 and find out what the dosage profile, the dosage index is all about. As I always say very, very succinctly, it is a breeding hack. It's a way of analysing a horse's breeding just by a series of numbers allocated to its name. Trust me on this. If you want to know more about it, there are some fine writers about it. There's fine essays which you can find online about the theory behind dosage profiling, dosage indexing of horses. But basically, every horse that is in training in the UK and worldwide will have a profile based on its four generations of breeding, and that will then indicate basically its predisposition to be more inclined to speed or more inclined to stamina. That is a very, very simple sort of price of what dosage profiling is all about. How does this relate to the 2000 and 1000 guineas? I have gone and looked back at the dosage profile of all of the winners of both races for this century and looked at the numbers associated with them. Eight numbers associated with every horse that has won the 2,000 or 1000 guineas this century. So you know 26 in both categories. Come up with margins and statistical means and medians and modes for those eight numbers, and then I've run those numbers against the horses that are declared at the five-day stage for the two races this coming weekend. Without boring you in too much detail about what those numbers have shown and the hardcore sort of stats behind it, I may put a photo up on my ex account of what I've done. I'm old school. I write these things down, I don't sort of put them onto a computer, I write them down in pencil, and you know that's the way I get sort of hands-on and grubby with with these with the analysis that I'm talking about. Everything goes down in in pencil, and I may put up sort of photos of what I've actually done if it comes out. You'll be able to look on my X account, and for that go to RacingWhat or at RacingWhat on Twitter X. But basically, cut into the good stuff for the 2000 guineas. I say looked at the dosage profile of the dosage numbers for all 26 winners this century, came up with a pretty sort of strict criteria on what the winner's breeding looks like. Two horses that are declared for this Saturday's event hit all of the numbers in all of the eight categories that I consider to be particularly sort of relevant. Two horses are causeway, currently training around the eight to one mark. Don't fancy that too much for obvious reasons. Uh you know, it's probably going to be a pacemaker, it may not even run anyway. And if it does, its last run was a winner of a handicap back in early March at NACE on soft ground, soft to heavy in places. It won, it was over seven furlong, but you know what horse goes on to win a classic off the back of a seven-furlong soft ground maiden at Nace. Probably not that many. If anyone can do it, Aiden O'Brien can, who is the trainer of Causeway, but you know, Causeway 80 to 1, but his breeding profile does look good. However, of more interest is his stablemate, Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico hits all of the eight categories of the numbers that go into a horse's dosage profile, and he's currently trading at around about the 8 to 1 mark. We don't know who is going to ride it. I hope to goodness that it's not Ryan Moore, and I don't think it will be. I think Ryan Moore will now go and ride Gestadt, who was supplemented on Monday when the declarations came out on Monday. I hope Christophe Sumion rides Puerto Rico. He has ridden him and his last two wins at the back of last season, won in the Criterium International at Saint-Cloud over a mile on uh soft ground, which he won Group 1 race, and before that won the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagader at Longchamps on uh Arc de Triomphe Day over seven furlongs again. That was on soft ground. Sumion rode the horse on both occasions, and I hope Sumion gets the ride. I hope he comes over and gets the ride on Saturday. He knows the horse. It's a very simple ride. The horse bangs out, makes all, and says, catch me if you can. And very simple tactics, tactics to execute. So 8-1, I quite look the look, quite like the look of Puerto Rico. Obviously, it's trained by Aidan O'Brien, classic William trainer. So yeah, I'm hoping that uh he can repeat the more recent, most recent works of likes of Magna Grisha, Saxon Warrior, Churchill, etc. etc. that he's won the uh 2000 guineas with in the past 10 years. Hope uh Sumion Rise, hope Puerto Rico can get the job done at around about 8 to 1 on Saturday. The 1000 guineas, similar approach. Looked at the dosage profile of the last 26 winners of that particular race. This has thrown up uh several more qualifiers at pretty huge prices. Not sure whether I'm going to play all of the horses, some of the horses, none of the horses. But again, cut into the chase. The the the the five that hit the perfect breeding profile that are declared for Sunday's race, the 1000 guineas, are Innismoor, Mubasima, Silenciosa, Time for Showcasing, and Vanosa. Vanosa's training at 150 to 1, time for showcasing around 66 to 1, Silenciosa at 100 to 1, Mubasimar at 66 to 1, and Innismoore at 20 to 1. So pretty sort of sizey odds. Of the rest, something like the prettiest star basically has a really lousy dosage profile. It does not fit the profile of the typical 1000 guineas winner, neither does the likes of Aslit or Abashiri. So there are some at the top of the market that on purely on this criteria on breeding alone, they don't look likely winners. So if you're with me and if you're going to go down this particular route, you may be interested in the horses that I've highlighted. Of those, uh I think Innismoore and Mubassima, Innismoore trained by David Menuzier, Mubissima trained by Andrew Bawling, could be of the most interest. Both contested the Nel Gwynn stakes at Newmarket here a couple of weeks back. Innismoor came fourth. Mubissimar came sixth when sent off Fort LeBron favourite. Both of them possibly needed the race. Mubissimar, as I say, was the favourite, fluffed the lines a little bit, coming in sixth, possibly needed the race more than the market thought. Innismoor interesting. Won on the July course a couple of times last year and made a big impression in a big sort of sales race in France last year as well. Uh, outing in the Nel Gwyn. Should have bought her on for the 2,000 guineas. I think she can run better. Now, obviously, it's a very competitive race. It's a step up in class, it's a step up in distance. You know, you are taking a little bit of a chance with both horses, but 20 to 1 Innismoore, 66 to 1 Mubassimar, you know, and she was sent off 4-1 favourite for a acknowledged trial for the 1,000 guineas, you know, the Nel Gwynn stakes. She's gone from uh favourite for that race to 66-1 for the 1,000 guineas on Sunday. Both of them have really nice sort of breeding profiles. Maybe an intribet. Let's see if they line up. Let's see what other sort of criteria come into play between now and Sunday. But those are two that you know, I'm not having a bet at this stage, but who may be of interest when decks are out on uh well be Thursday, Thursday, Friday when the final declarations are known. In terms of getting a deeper sort of insight into the race or coming at it from the different angle that I was talking about earlier on, you may want to start following or paying attention to a few rices. And it's a really nice little small world that we've got in the world of horse racing. Yes, there's the big account, you know, the Tom Seagulls in the Racing Post, and various, you know, Hugh Taylor, great tipster, you know, on the Out the Races website. You know, those are people that you'll learn a lot from. But there's also a little sort of smaller, more underground coterie of people with real sort of insight into the game that you should be following, and you get really good information uh and stats and insights from them. I'm talking about people like uh Ben Aitkin of uh Narrowing the Field fame, Matt Bisonno. Um he writes with a real insight into the game. So give Matt a follow. And there's a guy called Nick Pullen as well, who is uh runs a uh a tipping service called Against the Crowd, a tipping service. He would say it isn't, but it's it is a tipping service. He concentrates mostly on handicaps, but he does give some real good insights into bets and races, and he has just sent out a couple of really good emails of which I've received both looking at uh sort of criteria for winners of the 2000 and 1000 guineas over the last sort of 20-30 years, you know, and the stats he he basically headlines and the stats that dig out the 2000 guineas winner, stats that dig out the 1000 guineas winner, and he goes through a list of sort of criteria that you need to look at to narrow down the field a little bit and again you give you this left field view or new sort of insights perhaps into into punting. As a for example, and props to Nick Pullen here. This is something I'm gonna read of his, he's done the groundwork, so this is not me, this is Nick Pullen of Against the Crowd Fame, and he just talks about the 2,000 guineas. Here we go. All of the last 26 winners had won at least one race. All were progeny of a SAR that had won a group one race one racing. All had appeared at seven furlongs or eight furlongs last time out. 25 had raced at least twice, 25 had a winning strike rate of 50%, 25 had scored a career best of at least 110 on the racing post rating scale. 25 had scored career best racing post racing post ratings in one of the last two races. 24 were progeny of a side with a stamina index figure of 8.8 plus. 24 had won at seven furlongs or eight furlongs, 22 had been folded before April. I can go on, I'm probably boring you now, but this is really good quality stuff, and you want to be getting that kind of insight coming into your mailbox and giving you some stats to measure your criteria against and to give you a bit of a sort of deeper understanding and deeper insight into the race. So, like I say, props to Nick Paulin. He is a guy worth worth following, getting onto his mailing list. That's it. Thanks a lot, as I always say, for showing up for this particular podcast. Thanks a lot to all of my new followers that have been interacting with me on X. That's me over and out for now. Be lucky.